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1.
Active faults, seismicity and recent fracturing in the lithosphere of the Baikal rift system 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A map of major active faults has been constructed for the Baikal rift system (BRS). Recent active faults are identified using seismological data. The BRS seismicity of the past 40 years is statistically analyzed. Areas of a “stable” concentration of epicenters are revealed. On this basis, a zone of recent fracturing of the lithosphere is identified and its relation to active and developing faults of the BRS is analyzed. The zone of the lithosphere fracturing is a major tectonic structure, which controls both the recent seismic process and the reactivation of ancient faults. It is demonstrated that the available seismological data can provide a basis for a detailed classification of faults by degree of their tectonic activity. Regularities in the distribution of strong earthquakes along the zone of the recent fracturing of the lithosphere are established, as well as regularities in the distribution of strong and weak seismic events relative to transform and other faults. The degree of the fault reactivation is determined by their spatial closeness to the axial zone of the recent rupturing of the lithosphere. 相似文献
2.
The study results of modern geodynamics and tectonophysics of the lithosphere of Baikal Rift System (BRS) are generalized.
By the data on radii of dislocations, three areas of maximal strain-strength anisotropy of the medium are distinguished, while
analysis of seismic moments of earthquakes has showed that in these parts of the lithosphere mostly dip-slip fault-causing
quakes of various energy classes take place; i.e., riftogenesis processes dominate. Within the framework of the theory of
nonlinear dissipative dynamical systems, these areas are classified as attractor structures of riftogenesis (ASR). ASRs are
located in the central part and in the flanks of the BRS, and they form nonlinearity and instability of modern geodynamical
and tectonophysical processes in the lithosphere, which are manifested in seismicity of the Baikal Region and Mongolia. 相似文献
3.
S.I. Sherman E.A.Gorbunova 《地学前缘》2008,15(3):337-347
已有的地质和地球物理方法无法对年、月、旬等现今时间尺度上的断层活动变化进行有效预测。运用基于地震活动定量指数运算程序的地理信息技术可以解决这个问题。这种方法被应用于贝加尔裂谷系(BRS)及邻区的研究当中。研究发现,断层活动变化发生在以几年为周期的时间尺度上,这无法用区域应力场的变化进行合理解释。沿着穿越贝加尔裂谷系的剖面编制了活动断层图以及地震活动定量指数曲线。提出的这种方法可以根据地震活动定量指数对活动断层进行仔细的分类,从而为解决地震中期预报相关问题开辟了重要途径。这种方法还被用来研究断层现今活动的时空变化和形成机制。研究发现,在实时尺度上断层活动具有高频发生的特征,这种现象可能是由于脆性岩石圈板内和块体内部运动产生的慢变形波的干扰导致的。利用变形波的通过速度可以对活动断层进行分组,各组具有不同的地质和地球物理特征参数,同时还可以对变形波波前的方向以及某一区域内主要断层在实时间隔内(地质上的瞬间)的活动情况进行预测。 相似文献
4.
青藏高原东南缘活动断层相互作用、应力触发与差别响应 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
岩石圈、地壳由众多板块、地块及层圈组合而成,是开放性复杂巨系统,活断层在地壳中犹如神经网络也是复杂的开放体系。因此活断层之间存在复杂的相互作用,例如地震断层破裂产生应力扰动,可能触发其他断层破裂,不仅在近处,也会在远处发生。不同的活断层构造产状、活动方式及应变阶段不同,对同一次触发响应不同。触发与差别响应二者的叠加效应在地震活动性上有重要表现。表现之一是区域大震后,余震区外地震活动显著增强处发生继发性大震的概率最大,也即率先出现"远余震、诱发前震、响应震"的地方地震危险性增大,对预测未来地震位置有效。对本区1950—2013年地震统计表明,预测成功率W=1-漏报率-虚报率=80%。同时,对当前地震危险区作了预测。 相似文献
5.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mark D. Petersen James Dewey Stephan Hartzell Charles Mueller Stephan Harmsen ArthurD. Frankel Ken Rukstales 《Tectonophysics》2004,390(1-4):141-158
The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults. 相似文献
6.
阿尔金断裂带东段地区的地质构造特征及其动力学机制一直是地学工作者关注的焦点。近年来小震资料越来越多应用到活动断裂空间展布、深浅构造分析及动力学机制研究领域。本文应用双差定位法获得研究区域2008～2017年间6013次地震事件的精确定位数据,通过多条小震深度剖面清晰刻画出断裂系统的空间展布形态。综合石油地震剖面、人工地震宽角反射/折射剖面、人工地震深反射剖面,充分利用小震精确定位信息以及浅表活动构造研究成果,建立研究区断裂系统的深浅部构造模型。研究区莫霍面由北往南逐渐加深,存在三处断错,呈阶梯状展布,地壳内存在一条厚约10km的低速层,在该层以上为地震多发区,断裂系统总体呈"Y"字型,上部为一系列叠瓦状逆冲断裂,造成祁连山的隆升,向下并入一条主干断层。最后探讨了青藏高原东北缘地区构造运动的动力学机制,亚洲板块俯冲至祁连山前,上地壳以逆冲推覆构造模式造成上地壳增厚现象,而中下地壳主要为亚洲岩石圈地幔下插,上地幔的拖曳作用下发生流动引起地壳增厚,上下地壳整体增厚。 相似文献
7.
lvaro Gonzlez Miguel Vzquez-Prada Javier B. Gmez Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data. 相似文献
8.
We summarize seismogenic structures in four regions of active convergence, each at a different stage of the collision process, with particular emphases on unusual, deep-seated seismogenic zones that were recently discovered. Along the eastern Hellenic arc near Crete, an additional seismogenic zone seems to occur below the seismogenic portion of the interplate thrust zone—a configuration found in several other oblique subduction zones that terminate laterally against collision belts. The unusual earthquakes show lateral compression, probably reflecting convergence between the subducting lithosphere's flank and the collision zone nearby. Along oblique zones of recent collision, the equivalence between space and time reveals the transition from subduction to full collision. In particular, intense seismicity beneath western Taiwan indicates that along the incipient zone of arc–continent collision, major earthquakes occur along high-angle reverse faults that reach deep into the crust or even the uppermost mantle. The seismogenic structures are likely to be reactivated normal faults on the passive continental margin of southeastern China. Since high-angle faults are ineffective in accommodating horizontal motion, it is not surprising that in the developed portion of the central Taiwan orogen (<5 Ma), seismogenic faulting occurs mainly along moderate-dipping (20–30°) thrusts. This is probably the only well-documented case of concurrent earthquake faulting on two major thrust faults, with the second seismogenic zone reaching down to depths of 30 km. Furthermore, the dual thrusts are out-of-sequence, being active in the hinterland of the deformation front. Along the mature Himalayan collision zone, where collision initiated about 50 Ma ago, current data are insufficient to distinguish whether most earthquakes occurred along multiple, out-of-sequence thrusts or along a major ramp thrust. Intriguingly, a very active seismic zone, including a large (Mw=6.7) earthquake in 1988, occurs at depths near 50 km beneath the foreland. Such a configuration may indicate the onset of a crustal nappe, involving the entire cratonic crust. In all cases of collision discussed here, the basal decollement, a key feature in the critical taper model of mountain building, appears to be aseismic. It seems that right at the onset of collision, earthquakes reflect reactivation of high-angle faults. For mature collision belts, earthquake faulting on moderate-dipping thrust accommodates a significant portion of convergence—a process involving the bulk of crust and possibly the uppermost mantle. 相似文献
9.
断层导波研究加利福尼亚兰德斯和海克特曼恩地震断层带的四维特征(英文) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Yong—gangLI 《地学前缘》2003,10(4):479-505
美国加利福尼亚州兰德斯和海克特曼恩地区于1992年和1999年先后发生7.4级和7.1级地震,分别在地面产生80km和40km长的断裂带。震后在断裂带布置的密集地震站台记录到明显的断层导波(fault-zone guided waves)。这些导波由断层带内的余震和人工震源激发产生,走时在S波之后,但具有比体波更强的振幅和更长的波列,并具有频散特征。通过对2～7 Hz断层导波的定量分析和三维有限差分数字模拟,获得了震深区断裂带的高分辨内部构造图像以及岩石的物理特性。数字模拟结果表明这些断裂带上存在被严重破碎了的核心层,形成低速、低Q值地震波导。核心破碎带宽约100～200 m,其内地震波波速降为周围岩石的40％～50％,Q值约为10～50。根据岩石断裂力学观点,这一低速、低Q值带可被解释为地震过程中处于断层动态断裂前端的非弹性区(或称之为破碎区,相干过程区)。在兰德斯和海克特曼恩断裂带测得的破碎区宽度与断裂带长度之比约为0.005,基本上符合岩石断裂力学预期的结果。观察到的断层导波还显示兰德斯和海克特曼恩地震中多条断层发生滑移和破碎。兰德斯地震时多条阶梯形断层相继断裂;而在海克特曼恩地震中,断裂带南北两端均出现分枝断裂,深处的分枝断裂较地表出现的破裂状况更为复杂。由三维有限元模拟的动态断裂过程表明,? 相似文献
10.
V.V. Ruzhich S.G. Psakhie E.N. Chernykh S.A. Bornyakov N.G. Granin 《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2009,50(3):214-221
The mechanics of the ice cover of Lake Baikal has been studied through monitoring of its deformation and seismic effects and full-sizeuniaxial compression and shear tests in 2005–2007. We measured the shear strength of ice specimens and large in situ blocks (σ = 0.2?1.9 MPa) and investigated it as a function of air temperature and ice structure. Deformation was analyzed in terms of various natural controls, such as air temperature and pressure, wind, sub-ice currents, and local earthquakes. Precise strain measurements along ice cracks were used to explore the strain behavior of ice, including the cases of dynamic failure (ice shocks). Measurements by seismic station Baikal-12 were used to monitor diurnal background micro seismicity variations and to record an ice quake with its magnitude (M = 0.3–0.8; E = 104–105 J) comparable to a medium-size rock burst or a small earthquake. Ice quakes were studied in terms of their nucleation, dynamics, and after effects, as well as the strain and seismic responses of the ice, using sub-ice explosions in the latter case. The natural conditions of deformation in the elastoviscoplastic Baikal ice are similar to lithospheric processes and thus can be employed in tectonophysical modeling with scientific and practical implications for hazard mitigation. 相似文献
11.
Hiroshi Sato Naoshi Hirata Takaya Iwasaki Makoto Matsubara Takeshi Ikawa 《Tectonophysics》2002,355(1-4)
Knowledge of the crustal structure, especially the geometry of seismogenic faults, is key to understanding active tectonic processes and assessing the size and frequency of future earthquakes. To reveal the relationship between crustal structure and earthquake activity in northern Honshu Island, common midpoint (CMP) deep reflection profiling and earthquake observations by densely deployed seismic stations were carried out across the active reverse faults that bound the Ou Backbone range. The 40-km-long CMP profiles portray a relatively simple fault geometry within the seismogenic layer. The reverse faults merge at a midcrustal detachment just below the base of the seismogenic layer, producing a pop-up structure that forms the Ou Backbone range. The top of the reflective middle to lower crust (4.5 s in travel time (TWT)) nearly coincides with the bottom of seismogenic layer. The P-wave velocity structure and surface geology suggest that the bounding faults are Miocene normal faults that have been reactivated as reverse faults. 相似文献
12.
The Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 with an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0 is the most destructive earthquake in European history, yet the source region remains enigmatic. Recent geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the nearby Gibraltar Arc. Marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image active thrust faults in an accretionary wedge, above an east dipping decollement and an eastward dipping basement. Tomographic and other data support subduction and rollback of a narrow slab of oceanic lithosphere beneath the westward advancing Gibraltar block.Although, no instrumentally recorded seismicity has been documented for the subduction interface, we propose the hypothesis that this shallow east dipping fault plane is locked and capable of generating great earthquakes (like the Nankai or Cascadia seismogenic zones). We further propose this east dipping fault plane to be a candidate source for the Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755. In this paper we use all available geophysical data on the deep structure of the Gulf of Cadiz–Gibraltar region for the purpose of constraining the 3-D geometry of this potentially seismogenic fault plane. To this end, we use new depth processed seismic data, have interpreted all available published and unpublished time sections, examine the distribution of hypocenters and perform 2-D gravity modeling. Finally, a finite-element model of the forearc thermal structure is constructed to determine the temperature distribution along the fault interface and thus the thermally predicted updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone. 相似文献
13.
Betim Muço 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):135-150
Even though central Virginia is far from the nearest plate boundaries, the region is well-known for minor-to-moderate shocks, which have occurred frequently since at least the eighteenth century. Many of its people have experienced small earthquakes, while infrequent larger ones have caused damage. The largest destructive earthquake (magnitude 5.8) in this seismic zone was recorded in August 2011. Smaller earthquakes that cause little or no damage are felt each year or two. It is difficult to link the earthquakes of this zone to known small faults which are numerous, deeply buried and do not show up at the surface. The mean earthquake depth since 1960 is 6.7 km. On the other hand, central Virginia is a big collector and transporter of precipitation water, which flows to the Atlantic Ocean through the James River and its tributaries. There are about 2,000 abandoned mining sites in Virginia with underground openings that can facilitate the interception and conveyance of surface water. This paper presents evidence that seismic activity in certain zones can be associated clearly with the hydrological effects of abundant precipitation. Such effects can increase tectonic stress, which surpasses the marginal amount when an earthquake occurs. We analyze the cross-correlation between precipitation or water discharge in the rivers and earthquake occurrence in the central Virginia seismic zone. This correlation is examined both over a long-term span (57–92 years) and with regard to individual cases in which earthquakes have followed the occurrence of intense hydrological phenomena such as torrential rainfall or hurricanes. As we probe for a correlation between earthquake time series for central Virginia and the monthly precipitation series at hydrometeorological stations located in the zone, we observe that the best cross-correlation is obtained for a time period of 3 months. The same time period applies to certain historical earthquakes that were preceded by large amounts of precipitation. These results support the hydroseismicity hypothesis, which points to the role of water in the generation of intraplate seismicity. 相似文献
14.
Based on a block structure model of the inner belt of central Japan, an examination was conducted of the space-time distribution patterns of destructiv magnitudes M 6.4 or greater (M =Japan Meteorological Agency Scale). The distribution patterns revealed a periodicity in earthquake activit seismic gaps. Major NW—SE trending left-lateral active faults divide the inner belt of central Japan into four blocks, 20–80 km wide. The occurrenc A.D. with M ≥ 6.4, which have caused significant damage, were documented in the inner belt of central Japan. The epicenters of these earthquakes close to the block boundaries.
Using the relationship between the magnitude of earthquakes which occurred in the Japanese Islands and the active length of faults that generated them, movement is calculated for each historical earthquake. Space—time distributions of earthquakes were obtained from the calculated lengths, the latitud of generation. When an active period begins, a portion or segment of the block boundary creates an earthquake, which in turn appears on the ground surf active period ends when the block boundary generates earthquakes over the entire length of the block boundary without overlapping.
Five seismic gaps with fault lengths of 20 km or longer can be found in the inner belt of central Japan. It is predicted that the gaps will generate ea magnitudes of 7.0. These data are of significance for estimating a regional earthquake risk over central Japan in the design of large earthquake resist
The time sequences of earthquakes on the block boundaries reveal a similar tendency, with alternating active periods with seismic activity and quiet pe activity. The inner belt of central Japan is now in the last stage of an active period. The next active period is predicted to occur around 2500 A.D. 相似文献
15.
白龙江引水工程是我国拟建的一项重大战略工程,而代古寺水库是该工程的水源枢纽。代古寺水库及其周围地区(本文研究区)活动断层发育、大地震频发,故亟需开展可靠的地震危险性评估,为该研究区内的工程建设和运营保驾护航。由于传统评估方法物理依据不足,难以正确评估研究区的地震危险性,故本文采用了基于地震物理预测的地震危险性评估新方法。研究结果表明,该研究区位于海原地震区,未来100年内该研究区的地震危险性主要源于海原地震区的下一次MS8.5标志性地震。根据断层地震活动、发震潜力与展布特征,我们预判了该标志性地震的可能发震断层和震中位置;应用地震烈度衰减关系,考虑不同震中位置,分别计算了其产生的地震烈度。为确保“百年大计”的白龙江引水工程代古寺水库水资源枢纽安全,我们建议该研究区的抗震设防烈度不宜低于8度。 相似文献
16.
近年来,太原盆地内尽管没有强震发生,小震却异常活跃,而研究太原盆地构造应力场的分布和演化规律的工作比较少.采用有限元数值方法,综合考虑区域地质构造差异、主要活动断裂带、地形起伏和岩石圈分层结构,引入深部速度结构,建立包含太原盆地在内的山西地区三维粘弹性模型.以GPS观测值和最大主压应力方向测量值为约束条件,重建研究区现今构造背景应力场.在此基础上,依次模拟了自公元512年以来太原盆地6级以上和山西地震带7级以上历史强震序列.计算结果显示,太原盆地内的3次6级以上历史地震均落在应力场增加值大于0.01 MPa的区域,盆地近年来小震空间分布与现今应力增加值大于0.01 MPa的区域有较好的对应关系.研究表明:山西地震带内历史强震序列和长期构造加载对太原盆地内3次历史强震均有促进作用,太原盆地的地震活动性明显受区域当前应力水平的控制. 相似文献
17.
地震迁移的类型、特征及机制讨论 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
地震活动的迁移是指地震沿着某一方向循序地发生,是地震活动总体无序中局部出现的有序结构。通过系统分析区域上典型的地震迁移现象可以发现,迁移可划分为沿断裂走向的纵向迁移、垂直断裂走向的横向迁移与岩石圈尺度的深源迁移三大类。结合具体的实例分析,可初步归纳出纵向迁移（包括单向、双向、反复和跳跃式迁移等常见形式）、横向迁移和深源地震迁移的主要特征,并初步估算出了不同类型迁移的速度值,其中沿全球板块边界纵向迁移平均速度约为V=569 km/a,沿亚板块边界的平均速度约为V=120 km/a,沿大陆内部断裂带平均速度约为V=50 km/a。横向迁移相对比较复杂,初步发现在东亚存在两种速度分别为约20 km/a、50 km/a的迁移现象。而深源地震迁移速度的全球平均值大约为360 km/a。地震的纵向与横向迁移都存在不同层次和级别,也存在多种不同频率、能量与速度的形变波与迁移现象,这很可能是区域上大地震丛集活动过程中断层相互作用、地震应力触发和岩石圈尺度的形变波传播等因素共同作用的结果,而这种大空间尺度上的地震迁移现象的存在及其所具有的规律性特征,显然可为开展区域地震危险性分析提供新的思路和方法参考。 相似文献
18.
东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
青藏高原东北部东昆仑、汶川、玉树等强震的同震地表破裂不对称发育,伴随余震有规律地分别向东、南东和北北东方向迁移,很可能是源于恒河盆地流经亚东、当雄、安多、库赛湖、治多、玉树、甘孜、汶川的弧形下地壳“热河”的流速和流向变化形成的,下地壳热流物质正在向云南及邻区汇聚形成下地壳“热海”,导致长时间跨季度构造热干旱,其影响超过大气环流的作用。地表破裂不一定受断层控制,震源也不在断层面上,下地壳流动导致中地壳发震并进一步影响上地壳形成同震脆性破裂系统。大陆板内盆山过渡带地震密集,大陆板内地震是在下地壳层流的热动力作用下导致活动地壳分层变形的产物。在大陆盆山耦合、圈层耦合的非线性开放系统中,从大洋底部的软流圈层流进入大陆底部使得地幔软流圈加厚,底辟上升为大陆下地壳流动,为地震活动提供了巨量热能;热软化的下地壳缓慢的韧性流动孕育了大陆板内地震;中地壳韧 脆性剪切带易于积累能量,发生热能与应变能的转化,产生地震,形成震源层;上地壳脆性断层活动和地表破裂是地震释放深部能量的载体和方式之一。地壳稳定性评价的依据应当是地壳的活动性而不是断层的活动性。大陆活动构造区地震活跃期与平静期交替实际上是下地壳地震能量的聚散过程,体现在下地壳热主导的韧性流动构造与上地壳应力主导的脆性破裂构造之间的相互作用。下地壳热软化物质流动过程中流速、流向等突然改变触发地震,并产生共振波。大陆下地壳流层在厚度、温度、粘度、流速、流向上的变化产生一定程度的温度异常、流体异常及与其相关的大气层、电场、磁场、重力场、地球化学场、应力场、应变场、生物场等异常。合理布置天空网、地面网、地下网,综合立体监测有效的地震前兆,系统地开展长期、中期和短临地震预测,能够不断地提高地震预测水平。 相似文献
19.
Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252
The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters
of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical
uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic
uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian
approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined
for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located
within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the
range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants
is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and
recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an
updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes
which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The
highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability
is high. 相似文献
20.
中国西部及邻区大地震时空特征、地质背景及发展趋势分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在中国西部及邻区有一个以中国南北地震带—蒙古东部地震带、喜马拉雅地震带和帕米尔—天山—阿尔泰山—蒙古西部地震带为3条边而组成的巨型中亚三角形地震带,其大地震发生的强度之大、频度之高以及重复率之高、重复周期之短,在世界大陆上绝无仅有。这些大地震在空间上受到大地构造位置、构造应力场-滑移线场、介质力学条件、壳内低阻流变层和先存力学脆弱带等五位一体的复合控制,震中主要分布于3条边与活动断裂带交叉处的中—上地壳中;在时间上存在以21.5 a±为最小单元的多种周期。印度板块的持续顶撞和推挤,是该带大地震孕育的能源,而太阳黑子活动和地球自转速率变化可能是该带地震的触发因素。以2001年昆仑山大地震和2008年汶川大地震为标志,中亚三角形地震带可能进入了一个新的107.5 a活动中周期。果真如此,则未来数十年内在该三角形的3条边及其周缘,可能分别发生若干个M≥8.0级大地震和多个M≥7.0级强地震。 相似文献