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1.
Assessing Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study 总被引：14，自引：6，他引：14
Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigatedcropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 相似文献
2.
基于灾损评估的青海省牧草干旱风险区划研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
在全球气候变暖的大背景下, 表现出温度升高、 降水变率加大的区域响应, 造成极端天气气候事件、 气象灾害加剧. 基于青海省1961-2010年47个气象站和20个农气站的气象资料、 牧草的实际产量以及牧草的理论产量等资料, 采用相关分析、 线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 牧草相对产量的基础上, 确定了青海省牧区牧草干旱风险评估的实际阈值.通过海拔、 经度、 纬度、 牧草旱灾发生频次的拟合方程, 结合GIS平台对青海省牧草干旱进行风险区划.结果表明: 青南牧区西部、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部边缘地区、 祁连山地区为易受旱灾影响的特高风险或高风险区域;青南牧区西南部为中风险区域;低风险区域主要在青南牧区东南部, 区划结果基本上于历史旱灾的实际情况相吻合, 区划结果旨在为青海省牧区牧业良性发展提供科学依据. 相似文献
3.
Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh 总被引：14，自引：8，他引：6
Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh, very little attention has been so far paid to the mitigation and preparedness
of droughts. This article presents a method for spatial assessment of drought risk in Bangladesh. A conceptual framework,
which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the study. Standardized precipitation
index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extents of drought hazards in different time steps. The key social
and physical factors that define drought vulnerability in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic
maps in district level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the integration of those thematic
maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and vulnerability. The result shows that droughts pose highest risk
to the northern and northwestern districts of Bangladesh. 相似文献
4.
中国第四纪气候变化和未来北方干旱灾害分析 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
气候异常变化不仅是气象灾害、海洋灾害、洪涝灾害、生物灾害的源头,而且由于地球及其各圈层运动的整体性和联系性,气候异常变化的激烈时期也常是地震和地质灾害的多发期。为了对未来自然灾害作出预测,文章研究了第四纪气候变化和发展规律,据此认为21世纪初虽然可能降水量有所增加,但仍属干旱期,特别是中国北方将受到干旱灾害的严重威胁,并将诱发或伴生一系列其他自然灾害。文章认为要从节流与开源并重的战略高度解决北方水资源短缺问题,只有这样才能保证社会经济的可持续发展。 相似文献
5.
塔里木盆地是我国最大的半封闭型内陆盆地, 干旱、大风、沙尘暴、洪水以及地震、雪灾等自然灾害频繁.为了提高塔里木盆地城市应对自然灾害的能力, 以阿克苏地区为例, 在广泛借鉴国内外灾害脆弱性评价的指标体系与评价模型的基础上, 以多灾种复合情况为背景, 构建塔里木盆地自然灾害脆弱性评价指标体系, 运用模糊综合评价法进行脆弱性评价, 并对各指标进行对比分析.结果表明: 阿克苏市、新和县、阿瓦提县的高脆弱度值最高, 分别为0.48、0.36及0.40, 属于高脆弱度; 温宿县、沙雅县的中脆弱度值较高, 分别0.24和0.26, 属于中脆弱度; 库车县、拜城县、乌什县、柯坪县的低脆弱度值较高, 分别为0.48、0.45、0.36及0.35, 属于低脆弱度.根据各县市自然灾害脆弱性评价结果, 结合区域特点, 提出了防灾抗灾的对策建议, 对塔里木盆地城市降低脆弱性、减轻自然灾害影响有一定借鉴意义. 相似文献
6.
Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Mohammed H. I. Dore 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(2-3):249-269
A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms. 相似文献
7.
Damage and destruction to schools from climate-related disasters can have significant and lasting impacts on curriculum and educational programs, educational attainment, and future income-earning potential of affected students. As such, assessing the potential impact of hazards is crucial to the ability of individuals, households, and communities to respond to natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises. Yet, few studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of schools in coastal regions of the USA. Using Hurricane Ike’s tropical storm wind swath in the State of Texas as our study area, we: (1) assessed the spatial distribution patterns of school closures and (2) tested the relationship between school closure and vulnerability factors (namely physical exposure and school demographics) using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The regression results show that higher probabilities of hurricane strikes, more urbanized school districts, and school districts located in coastal counties on the right side of Ike’s path have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of school closure days. Socioeconomic characteristics were not significantly associated with the number of days closed, with the exception of proportion of Hispanic youth in schools, a result which is not supported by the social vulnerability literature. At a practical level, understanding how hurricanes may adversely impact schools is important for developing appropriate preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and adaptation strategies. For example, school districts on the right side of the hurricane track can plan in advance for potential damage and destruction. The ability of a community to respond to future natural disasters, extreme events, and economic crises depends in part on mitigating these adverse effects. 相似文献
8.
Disaster preparedness plans reduce future damages, but may lack testing to assess their effectiveness in operation. This study used the state-designed Local Government Unit Disaster Preparedness Journal: Checklist of Minimum Actions for Mayors in assessing the readiness to natural hazards of 92 profiled municipalities in central Philippines inhabited by 2.4 million people. Anchored on the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, it assessed their preparedness in 4 criteria—systems and structures, policies and plans, building competencies, and equipment and supplies. Data were analyzed using statistical package for social sciences, frequency count, percentage, and weighted mean. The local governments were found highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone and flood while vulnerable to earthquake, drought, and landslide. They were partially prepared regardless of profile, but the coastal, middle-earning, most populated, having the least number of villages, and middle-sized had higher levels of preparedness. Those highly vulnerable to earthquake and forest fire were prepared, yet only partially prepared to flood, storm surge, drought, tropical cyclone, tornado, tsunami and landslide. The diverse attitude of stakeholders, insufficient manpower, and poor database management were the major problems encountered in executing countermeasures. Appointing full-time disaster managers, developing a disaster information management system, massive information drive, organizing village-based volunteers, integrating disaster management into formal education, and mandatory trainings for officials, preparing for a possible major volcanic eruption and crafting a comprehensive plan against emerging emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a 360° preparedness.
相似文献9.
Tsegaye Tadesse Donald A. Wilhite Sherri K. Harms Michael J. Hayes Steve Goddard 《Natural Hazards》2004,33(1):137-159
Drought has an impact on many aspects of society. To help decision makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to
improve our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of atmospheric and oceanic parameters that cause drought.
In this study, the use of data mining techniques is introduced to find associations between drought and several oceanic and
climatic indices that could help users in making knowledgeable decisions about drought responses before the drought actually
occurs. Data mining techniques enable users to search for hidden patterns and find association rules for target data sets
such as drought episodes. These techniques have been used for commercial applications, medical research, and telecommunications,
but not for drought. In this study, two time-series data mining algorithms are used in Nebraska to illustrate the identification
of the relationships between oceanic parameters and drought indices. The algorithms provide flexibility in time-series analyses
and identify drought episodes separate from normal and wet conditions, and find relationships between drought and oceanic
indices in a manner different from the traditional statistical associations. The drought episodes were determined based on
the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Associations were observed between drought
episodes and oceanic and atmospheric indices that include the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Multivariate ENSO Index
(MEI), the Pacific/North American (PNA) index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) Index. The experimental results showed that among these indices, the SOI, MEI, and PDO have relatively stronger relationships
with drought episodes over selected stations in Nebraska. Moreover, the study suggests that data mining techniques can help
us to monitor drought using oceanic indices as a precursor of drought. 相似文献
10.
H. Daniel Stillwell 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(2):131-159
Natural hazards and disasters occur widely throughout the world. Disasters can be costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Higher death tolls in developing nations may be the result of poverty, rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate communication facilities. The purpose of this study is to show patterns of major catastrophic events in Latin America so that their impacts can be evaluated and compared.Latin America was selected because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico, volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. Spatial and temporal aspects of natural disasters are presented in nine tables and 21 maps. The tables give selected disaster data by country for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and atmospheric disturbances from the 16th century to 1989. Most data is derived from disasters occurring during the 20th century and include number of events, people killed, people affected, and U.S.$ damage. Maps show environmental settings for disasters and allow detailed comparison among countries. Floods account for the greatest number of major events in the most countries, earthquakes cause the most deaths and damage, while droughts affect the most people. Peru surpasses all others in susceptibility to major disasters. Assessment of vulnerability to hazards, improved economic opportunities, and an increased social and political concern for poor people should help reduce future losses from natural disasters in Latin America. 相似文献
11.
Assessment on agricultural drought vulnerability in the Yellow River basin based on a fuzzy clustering iterative model 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Di Wu Deng-Hua Yan Gui-Yu Yang Xiao-Gang Wang Wei-Hua Xiao Hai-Tao Zhang 《Natural Hazards》2013,67(2):919-936
Drought is one of the major natural disasters occurring in China and causes severe impacts on agricultural production and food security. Therefore, agricultural drought vulnerability assessment has an important significance for reducing regional agricultural drought losses and drought disaster risks. In view of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment with the characteristics of multiple factors and uncertainty, we applied the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation framework to agricultural drought vulnerability model. The agricultural drought vulnerability assessment model was constructed based on the multi-layer and multi-index fuzzy clustering iterative method, which can better reveal the drought vulnerability (including sensitivity and adaptation capacity). Furthermore, the cycle iterative algorithm was used to obtain the optimal index weight vector of a given accuracy by setting the objective function. It provides a new approach to weight determination of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment. In this study, agricultural drought vulnerability of 65 cities (as well as leagues and states) in the Yellow River basin was investigated using a fuzzy clustering iterative model and visualized by using GIS technique. The results showed clear differences and regularities among the spatial distribution of agricultural drought vulnerability of different regions. A large number of the regions in the basin consisted of those exhibiting high to very high vulnerability and were mainly distributed throughout Qinghai, Gansu, northern Shaanxi, and southern Shanxi, accounting for 46 % of the total assessment units. However, the regions exhibiting very high vulnerability were not significantly affected by droughts. Most of the regions exhibiting moderate vulnerability (21.5 % of the assessment units) were mainly concentrated among agricultural irrigation areas, where agriculture is highly sensitive to droughts, and drought occurrence in these regions will likely cause heavy losses in the future. The regions exhibiting slight to low vulnerability were relatively concentrated, accounting for 32.3 % of the assessment units, and were mainly distributed in the plains of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, where the economy was rather well developed and the agricultural production conditions were relatively stronger. 相似文献
12.
Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Wang Qian Zhang Qi-peng Liu Yang-yang Tong Lin-jing Zhang Yan-zhen Li Xiao-yu Li Jian-long 《Natural Hazards》2020,100(1):3-15
Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.
相似文献13.
In the recent past, Australia has experienced several catastrophic hazard events and the frequency and intensity of such events is expected to increase in the future. Natural hazards can rarely be fully prevented, yet their losses can be minimized if the necessary preparedness and mitigation actions are taken before an event occurs. Identification of vulnerable groups is an important first step in any preparedness and emergency management planning process. Social vulnerability refers to population characteristics that influence the capacity of a community to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. Factors that contribute to social vulnerability are often hidden and difficult to capture. This study analyzes the relative levels of social vulnerability of communities at the urban?Cbush interface in the Blue Mountains and Ku-ring-gai local council areas in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. We tested whether a standardized social vulnerability index could be developed using a pre-existing set of indicators. We created an exploratory principle component analysis model using Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 census data at the Census Collection District (CCD) level. We identified variables contributing to social vulnerability and used the component scores to develop a social vulnerability index. Finally, the social vulnerability index was mapped at the CCD level. Our results indicate that both contributors to and the level of social vulnerability differ between and within communities. In other words, they are spatially variable. They show different spatial patterns across the areas, which provides useful information for identifying communities that are most likely to experience negative disaster impacts due to their socio-demographic characteristics. 相似文献
14.
Spatio-temporal Distribution of Three Kinds of Flash Droughts over Agricultural Land in China from 1983 to 2015 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
At present, flash drought occurs globally and regionally and causes a lot of socio-economic loss in a very short time. Therefore, flash drought has been regarded as one of the hottest issues in drought research. However, flash drought monitoring, prediction and decision-making have encountered a lot of challenges due to its multiple driven factors and complex spatio-temporal process. Aiming at this problem, this paper focused on the agricultural land in China, and analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of three kinds of flash droughts (i.e., precipitation-deficit, high-temperature, and composite flash droughts) from 1983 to 2015. We studied the occurrences, duration, spatial distribution, temporal distribution, and trend of all three kinds of flash droughts. Our results demonstrated that, the occurrences of flash drought agricultural land in China increased year by year, among which high-temperature flash drought increased dramatically; duration of flash droughts had different trends, but the variations were relatively smooth; Northeast China was identified as a vulnerable area of flash drought, indicating more flash drought events and longer duration; flash droughts in China were found to concentrate in spring (high-temperature drought) and summer seasons (precipitation-deficit drought). This study is helpful for building new flash drought monitoring method and system, and it is also valuable for flash drought preparedness on regional scale. 相似文献
15.
Taiwan has long made efforts to increase community emergency response capability, due to its vulnerability to earthquakes,
typhoons, landslides and debris flows. Not until recent major natural disasters, such as the 1999 Chi–Chi Earthquake, Typhoon
Toraji and Typhoon Nari, has the government reformed its policy toward empowering the community to take actions in hazard
mitigation, emergency preparedness and emergency response. A new initiatve, Integrated Community-Based Disaster Management
Program (ICBDM), was launched in 2001 by the Executive Yuan to achieve the goal of strengthening community resistance. The
paper, taking Shang-An Village as an example, describes Taiwan’s new community-based disaster management program. Through
a participatory process, community residents have learned how to analyze vulnerable conditions, discover problems, develop
solutions and establish an organization to implement disaster management tasks. Further, basic response training courses and
a disaster scenario were held in order to improve their emergency response capability. Based on the case study, a phased process,
including initiation, assessment, planning and practice, is generalized. 相似文献
16.
Drought is a common occurrence in Nebraska and agriculture is the primary economic sector affected. Because of repeated and
widespread severe drought impacts, more emphasis on drought risk management is warranted. This study develops an agricultural
drought risk assessment model using multivariate techniques. The model is specific to corn and soybeans and is able to assess
real-time agricultural drought risk associated with crop yield losses at critical phenological stages prior to and during
the growing season. The assessment results are presented in a Geographic Information System to provide a better visualization.
This model provides information in a timely manner about potential agricultural drought risks on dryland crop yield to decision
makers ranging from agricultural producers to policy makers from local to national levels. 相似文献
17.
The assessment of social vulnerability is a requirement for understanding the risk of natural hazards. This paper calculates the social vulnerability index of geological disasters in China with the super-efficiency DEA (data envelopment analysis) model, carries out global and local autocorrelation tests for social vulnerability to geological disasters in each province in China and identifies the characteristics of its spatial distribution pattern. The results show the following. (1) China’s social vulnerability to geological disasters is relatively high and has obvious differences. It represents the pattern of a significant increase by degrees in social vulnerability to geological disasters from east to west and a significantly negative correlation relationship between the vulnerability level and the economic level. (2) Based on the comparative analysis of the mean values of the indexes and the social vulnerability index of geological disasters, it is found that the social vulnerability index of geological disasters in China is directly related to the regional exposure degree and reaction and recovery ability, among which the reaction and recovery ability has great effects on the social vulnerability index. (3) Most of the regions in China are in a high–high clustering area or a low–low clustering area; that is to say, the regions with similar social vulnerability to geological disasters represent the pattern of clustering. 相似文献
18.
采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料,结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据,基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究,提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念,在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征,确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:① 致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义,得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映,可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求;② 洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势,而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96,构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。 相似文献
19.
Drought risk assessment using remote sensing and GIS techniques 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Abdel-Aziz Belal Hassan R. El-Ramady Elsayed S. Mohamed Ahmed M. Saleh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(1):35-53
Beginning with a discussion of drought definitions, this review paper attempts to provide a review of fundamental concepts of drought, classification of droughts, drought indices, and the role of remote sensing and geographic information systems for drought evaluation. Owing to the rise in water demand and looming climate change, recent years have witnessed much focus on global drought scenarios. As a natural hazard, drought is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters. An understanding of the relationships between these two sets of parameters is necessary to develop measures for mitigating the impacts of droughts. Droughts are recognized as an environmental disaster and have attracted the attention of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists, and agricultural scientists. Temperatures; high winds; low relative humidity; and timing and characteristics of rains, including distribution of rainy days during crop growing seasons, intensity, and duration of rain, and onset and termination, play a significant role in the occurrence of droughts. In contrast to aridity, which is a permanent feature of climate and is restricted to low rainfall areas, a drought is a temporary aberration. Often, there is confusion between a heat wave and a drought, and the distinction is emphasized between heat wave and drought, noting that a typical time scale associated with a heat wave is on the order of a week, while a drought may persist for months or even years. The combination of a heat wave and a drought has dire socio-economic consequences. Drought risk is a product of a region’s exposure to the natural hazard and its vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage. If nations and regions are to make progress in reducing the serious consequences of drought, they must improve their understanding of the hazard and the factors that influence vulnerability. It is critical for drought-prone regions to better understand their drought climatology (i.e., the probability of drought at different levels of intensity and duration) and establish comprehensive and integrated drought information system that incorporates climate, soil, and water supply factors such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, snow pack, reservoir and lake levels, ground water levels, and stream flow. All drought-prone nations should develop national drought policies and preparedness plans that place emphasis on risk management rather than following the traditional approach of crisis management, where the emphasis is on reactive, emergency response measures. Crisis management decreases self-reliance and increases dependence on government and donors. 相似文献
20.
A qualitative Natech damage scale for the impact of floods on selected industrial facilities 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
There is increasing evidence that natural disasters can trigger technological accidents and damage. These so-called Natech
accidents can pose a significant risk to regions that are unprepared for responding to them. The European Commission’s Joint
Research Centre has recognised the risk associated with Natech events and has started systematic research into Natechs and
their underlying dynamics. This work investigates the risk associated with the flooding of industrial installations through
an analysis of past case histories and using expert judgement. The potential impact of three levels of flood severity on selected
industrial facilities storing and/or processing (eco-)toxic, flammable or explosive materials is analysed qualitatively and
a scale is developed that links the flood intensity to the level of potential damage. Our analysis indicates that natural
disasters have the potential for triggering hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Hence, natural disasters
should be considered as separate accident-triggering events in the planning, design and operating stages of industrial facilities
that process or store hazardous substances. Our work revealed a lack of detailed information on the occurrence of Natech events
which indicates not necessarily a scarcity of Natechs but rather a lack of standardised reporting and record keeping. 相似文献