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1.
Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probabilitye) and the relative importance of the outcome (importanceo). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.  相似文献   

2.
In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert  相似文献   

3.
Mayor Island is a peralkaline rhyolitic caldera volcano characterised by numerous, sector-confined pyroclastic deposits, together with lavas forming at least five composite shields. Correlation of sequences between sectors is difficult because of the scarcity of island-wide marker beds. However, eight distal calc-alkaline fall tephras (ca. 7.3 14C ka to 64 ka) from Okataina and Taupo volcanic centres in the nearby Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) have been identified on the island. These “foreign” TVZ tephras provide marker planes to correlate activity in different sectors of Mayor Island volcano, and refine an eruptive chronology. At least seventeen pyroclastic eruptions and fourteen lava-producing events (including multiple, shield-forming events) have occurred in the past ca. 64 ka. Age controls provided by the calc-alkaline tephras confirm the extremely local dispersal characteristics of many of the Mayor Island eruptives and show that K/Ar ages as young as 25–33 ka on obsidians with 4.2–4.4% K2O are reliable.  相似文献   

4.
VolcaNZ is a probabilistic volcanic loss model developed for the Auckland Region in New Zealand that currently considers tephra fall hazards from the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), Tuhua volcano, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre and Egmont volcano. In this first version of the model, structural and non-structural damage to residential building envelopes and associated cleanup costs are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation.VolcaNZ assigns a Minimum and Maximum Damage Value to groups of buildings for every simulation, dependent on tephra thickness. A Central Damage Value, representing loss as a percentage of total replacement cost, is then randomly selected between these limits. Even with small-thickness falls, non-structural damage is expected to roof and wall coatings, air-conditioning units, aerials and satellite dishes due to the corrosive and abrasive properties of tephra. An average loss of $583, attributed to non-structural damage, was assigned to all residential buildings impacted by any thickness of tephra greater than 0.1 mm. The costs of tephra removal from buildings, cleaning of building exteriors and tephra transport and disposal are also calculated within the model, assuming much of the cleanup process will be carried out by homeowners.Losses from all simulations are plotted against calculated Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) to produce loss curves. Structural damage does not become apparent until ARIs of approximately 8000 years. $1 billion losses, due to structural damage, occur at about 35,000 years and this increases to about $26 billion at 1 million years. Loss due to non-structural damage is constant at approximately $160 million for ARIs above about 600 years. Between 600 and 3000 years, cleanup loss is approximately $50 million, increasing to over $450 million at a return period of 1 million years. At ARIs between 600 and 3000 years, total loss is approximately $210 million, increasing to $10 billion at 100,000 years and over $26 billion at 1 million years. Because we only consider residential building damage and associated cleanup, these values greatly underestimate total loss from the next volcanic event to impact Auckland. Loss calculations will be improved by adding additional hazard and loss modules to VolcaNZ, resulting in a complete catastrophe loss model.  相似文献   

5.
Grain-specific analyses of Fe–Ti oxides and estimates of eruption temperature (T) and oxygen fugacity (fO2) have been used to fingerprint rhyolitic fall and flow deposits that are important for tephrostratigraphic studies in and around the Taupo volcanic zone of North Island, New Zealand. The analysed Fe–Ti oxides commonly occur in the rims of orthopyroxene crystals and appear to reflect equilibrium immediately prior to eruption because of geochemical correlation with the co-existing glass phase. The composition of the spinel phase is particularly diagnostic of eruptive centre for post-65 ka events and can be used to distinguish many tephra beds from the same volcano. The 29 different units examined were erupted over a wide range in T (690–990°C) and Δ log fO2 (–0.1 to 2.0). These parameters are closely related to the mafic mineral assemblage, with hydrous mineral-bearing units displaying higher fO2. Such trends are superimposed on larger differences in fO2 that are related to eruptive centre. At any given temperature, all post-65 ka Okataina centre tephra have higher fO2 values than post-65 ka Taupo centre tephra. This provides a useful criterion for identifying the volcanic source. There are no temporal T and fO2 trends in the tephra record; over intervals >20 ka, however, tephra sequences from Taupo centre form characteristic T-fO2 buffer trends mirroring the glass chemistry. Individual eruptive events display uniform spinel and rhombohedral phase compositions and thus narrow ranges in T (± <20°C) and log fO2 (± <0.5), allowing these features to identify individual magma batches. These criteria can help distinguish tephra deposits of similar bulk or glass composition that originated from the same volcano. Distal fall deposits record the same T-fO2 conditions as the proximal ignimbrite and enable distal–proximal correlation. Lateral and vertical compositional and T-fO2 variability displayed in large volume (>100 km3) ignimbrites, such as the Oruanui, Rotoiti and Ongatiti, is similar to that found in a single pumice clast and thus mainly reflects analytical error; however, thermal gradients of ca. 50°C may occur in some units. Received: 6 April 1998 / Accepted: 16 June 1998  相似文献   

6.
Fifty-three major explosive eruptions on Iceland and Jan Mayen island were identified in 0–6-Ma-old sediments of the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans by the age and the chemical composition of silicic tephra. The depositional age of the tephra was estimated using the continuous record in sediment of paleomagnetic reversals for the last 6 Ma and paleoclimatic proxies (δ18O, ice-rafted debris) for the last 1 Ma. Major element and normative compositions of glasses were used to assign the sources of the tephra to the rift and off-rift volcanic zones in Iceland, and to the Jan Mayen volcanic system. The tholeiitic central volcanoes along the Iceland rift zones were steadily active with the longest interruption in activity recorded between 4 and 4.9 Ma. They were the source of at least 26 eruptions of dominant rhyolitic magma composition, including the late Pleistocene explosive eruption of Krafla volcano of the Eastern Rift Zone at about 201 ka. The central volcanoes along the off-rift volcanic zones in Iceland were the source of at least 19 eruptions of dominant alkali rhyolitic composition, with three distinct episodes recorded at 4.6–5.3, 3.5–3.6, and 0–1.8 Ma. The longest and last episode recorded 11 Pleistocene major events including the two explosive eruptions of Tindfjallajökull volcano (Thórsmörk, ca. 54.5 ka) and Katla volcano (Sólheimar, ca. 11.9 ka) of the Southeastern Transgressive Zone. Eight major explosive eruptions from the Jan Mayen volcanic system are recorded in terms of the distinctive grain-size, mineralogy and chemistry of the tephra. The tephra contain K-rich glasses (K2O/SiO2>0.06) ranging from trachytic to alkali rhyolitic composition. Their normative trends (Ab–Q–Or) and their depleted concentrations of Ba, Eu and heavy-REE reflect fractional crystallisation of K-feldspar, biotite and hornblende. In contrast, their enrichment in highly incompatible and water-mobile trace elements such as Rb, Th, Nb and Ta most likely reflect crustal contamination. One late Pleistocene tephra from Jan Mayen was recorded in the marine sequence. Its age, estimated between 617 and 620 ka, and its composition support a common source with the Borga pumice formation at Sør Jan in the south of the island.  相似文献   

7.
Glass-bearing plutonic fragments occur as rare accessory lithics within the ca. 64 ka Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat ignimbrites that were erupted from Okataina caldera complex, Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. Granitoid lithic fragments are only found in the Rotoiti ignimbrite and fall into two groups. Group 1 granitoids have textures consistent with a period of slow cooling followed by rapid quenching, and were excavated by the Rotoiti eruption from a single incompletely solidified magma body. Although isotopic ratios for the Group 1 granitoids are similar to the host ignimbrite, they are not cognate, having different chemistry, mineralogy, mineral chemistry and crystallisation history. It is more likely that they represent fragments of a separate incompletely solidified magma chamber that was intercepted by the erupting Rotoiti ignimbrite magma. Low LILE and high HFSE abundances favour a comagmatic link with the ca. 0.28 Ma Matahina ignimbrite and it is suggested they are derived from an isolated cupola of the Matahina magma chamber that remained at depth (between 3.5 and 5 kbar pressure) after eruption of the Matahina ignimbrite. Migration toward the surface probably accompanied development of the Rotoiti magma system in the upper crust. Most geochemical variation in Group 1 granitoids is related to the abundance of biotite, the concentration of which is controlled by differential shear. REE abundance is controlled by light REE-enriched accessory minerals preferentially included within biotite. Although Eun remains constant in the Group 1 granitoids, Eu/Eu* varies systematically with (La/Yb)n and is controlled by variations in Sm and Gd rather than in Eu. Group 2 granitoid fragments have a wide range of composition, comparable to many Okataina rhyolites, including those found as lithic fragments in the Rotoiti ignimbrite. Rare microdiorite fragments occur in both Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat ignimbrites and typically contain vesicular interstitial glass indicating that they were incompletely solidified prior to eruption. Those from the Rotoiti ignimbrite are comparable to the (>64 ka) Matahi basaltic tephra and probably represent part of the same magmatic event which generated the Matahi tephra.  相似文献   

8.
Orakei maar and tuff ring in the Auckland Volcanic Field is an example of a basaltic volcano in which the style and impacts of the eruption of a small volume of magma were modulated by a fine balance between magma flux and groundwater availability. These conditions were optimised by the pre-85?ka eruption being hosted in a zone of fractured and variably permeable Plio-Pleistocene mudstones and sandstones. Orakei maar represents an end-member in the spectrum of short-lived basaltic volcanoes, where substrate conditions rather than the magmatic volatile content was the dominant factor controlling explosivity and eruption styles. The eruption excavated a crater ?80?m deep that was subsequently filled by slumped crater wall material, followed by lacustrine and marine sediments. The explosion crater may have been less than 800?m in diameter, but wall collapse and wave erosion has left a 1,000-m-diameter roughly circular basin. A tuff ring around part of the maar comprises dominantly base surge deposits, along with subordinate fall units. Grain size, texture and shape characteristics indicate a strong influence of magma–water and magma–mud interactions that controlled explosivity throughout the eruption, but also an ongoing secondary role of magmatic gas-driven expansion and fragmentation. The tuff contains >70?% of material recycled from the underlying Plio-Pliestocene sediments, which is strongly predominant in the >2 ? fraction. The magmatic clasts are evolved alkali basalt, consistent with the eruption of a very small batch of magma. The environmental impact of this eruption was disproportionally large, when considering the low volume of magma involved (DRE?<?0.003?km3). Hence, this eruption exemplifies one of the worst-case scenarios for an eruption within the densely populated Auckland City, destroying an area of ~3?km2 by crater formation and base surge impact. An equivalent scenario for the same magma conditions without groundwater interaction would yield a scoria/spatter cone with a diameter of 400–550?m, destroying less than a tenth of the area affected by the Orakei event.  相似文献   

9.
Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

10.
Acquiring detailed eruption frequency datasets for a volcano system is essential for realistic eruption forecasts. However, accurate datasets are inherently difficult to compile, even if one or more well-dated eruption records are available. A single record typically under-represents the eruption frequency, while combining two or more records may result in an overrepresentation. Although glass compositions have proven to be successful in tephrochronological studies of dominantly rhyolitic tephras; microlitic growth and thin glass shards inhibit their application to andesitic tephras. A method consisting of a combination of two techniques for correlating syn-eruptive deposits is demonstrated on data from the typical andesitic stratovolcano of Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Firstly, tentative matches are identified using the radiocarbon age and associated error of each event. Secondly, the compositions of titanomagnetite micro-phenocrysts are used as an independent check, and shown to be a useful correlation tool where age data is available. Using two lake-core records containing tephra layers in an overlapping time-frame, the radiocarbon age-correlation procedure suggested 31 tephra matches. Geochemistry data were available for 15 of these pairs. In three of these cases, the titanomagnetite compositions did not match. Hence, these “paired” tephras were from compositionally distinct magmas and therefore likely represent separate events. An additional three matches were reassigned within the temporal uncertainty limits of the dating procedure, based on better geochemical pairing. The final combined dataset suggests that there have been at least 138 separate ash fall-producing eruptions between 96 and 10 150 years B.P. from Taranaki. Using the combined dataset the mixture of Weibulls renewal model forecasts a probability of 0.52 for an eruption occurring in the next 50 years at this volcano. The present annual eruption probability is estimated at 1.6%. This likelihood is almost double that obtained when relying on a single stratigraphic record.  相似文献   

11.
The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) with 49 eruptive centres in the last c. 250 ka presents many challenges to our understanding of distributed volcanic field construction and evolution. We re-examine the age constraints within the AVF and perform a correlation exercise matching the well-dated record of tephras from cores distributed throughout the field to the most likely source volcanoes, using thickness and location information and a simple attenuation model. Combining this augmented age information with known stratigraphic constraints, we produce a new age-order algorithm for the field, with errors incorporated using a Monte Carlo procedure. Analysis of the new age model discounts earlier appreciations of spatio-temporal clustering in the AVF. Instead the spatial and temporal aspects appear independent; hence the location of the last eruption provides no information about the next location. The temporal hazard intensity in the field has been highly variable, with over 63% of its centres formed in a high-intensity period between 40 and 20 ka. Another, smaller, high-intensity period may have occurred at the field onset, while the latest event, at 504 ± 5 years B.P., erupted 50% of the entire field’s volume. This emphasises the lack of steady-state behaviour that characterises the AVF, which may also be the case in longer-lived fields with a lower dating resolution. Spatial hazard intensity in the AVF under the new age model shows a strong NE-SW structural control of volcanism that may reflect deep-seated crustal or subduction zone processes and matches the orientation of the Taupo Volcanic Zone to the south.  相似文献   

12.
 The ca. 10,500 years B.P. eruptions at Ruapehu volcano deposited 0.2–0.3 km3 of tephra on the flanks of Ruapehu and the surrounding ring plain and generated the only known pyroclastic flows from this volcano in the late Quaternary. Evidence of the eruptions is recorded in the stratigraphy of the volcanic ring plain and cone, where pyroclastic flow deposits and several lithologically similar tephra deposits are identified. These deposits are grouped into the newly defined Taurewa Formation and two members, Okupata Member (tephra-fall deposits) and Pourahu Member (pyroclastic flow deposits). These eruptions identify a brief (<ca. 2000-year) but explosive period of volcanism at Ruapehu, which we define as the Taurewa Eruptive Episode. This Episode represents the largest event within Ruapehu's ca. 22,500-year eruptive history and also marks its culmination in activity ca. 10,000 years B.P. Following this episode, Ruapehu volcano entered a ca. 8000-year period of relative quiescence. We propose that the episode began with the eruption of small-volume pyroclastic flows triggered by a magma-mingling event. Flows from this event travelled down valleys east and west of Ruapehu onto the upper volcanic ring plain, where their distal remnants are preserved. The genesis of these deposits is inferred from the remanent magnetisation of pumice and lithic clasts. We envisage contemporaneous eruption and emplacement of distal pumice-rich tephras and proximal welded tuff deposits. The potential for generation of pyroclastic flows during plinian eruptions at Ruapehu has not been previously considered in hazard assessments at this volcano. Recognition of these events in the volcanological record is thus an important new factor in future risk assessments and mitigation of volcanic risk at Tongariro Volcanic Centre. Received: 5 July 1998 / Accepted: 12 March 1999  相似文献   

13.
The morphology, grain size characteristics and composition of ash particles in 30 ka to 150 ka tephra layers from the Byrd ice core were examined to characterize the eruptions which produced them and to test the suggestion that they were erupted from Mt. Takahe, a shield volcano in Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Volcanic deposits at Mt. Takahe were examined for evidence of recent activity which could correlate with the tephra layers in the ice core.Coarse- and fine-ash layers have been recognized in the Byrd ice core. The coarse-ash layers have a higher mass concentration than the fine-ash layers and are characterized by fresh glass shards > 50 μm diameter, many containing elongate pipe vesicles. The fine-ash layers have a lower mass concentration and contain a greater variety of particles, typically < 20 μm diameter. Many of these particles are aggregate grains composed of glass and crystal fragments showing S and Cl surface alteration. The grain-size distributions of the coarse and fine-ash layers overlap, in part because of the aggregate nature of grains in the fine-ash layers. The coarse-ash layers are interpreted as having formed by magmatic eruption whereas the fine-ash layers are believed to be hydrovolcanic in origin.Mt. Takahe is the favored source for the tephra because: (a) chemical analyses of samples from the volcano are distinctive, being peralkaline trachyte, and similar in composition to the analyzed tephra; (b) Mt. Takahe is a young volcano (< 0.3 Ma); (c) pyroclastic deposits on Mt. Takahe indicate styles of eruption similar to that inferred for the ice core tephra; and (d) Mt. Takahe is only about 350 km from the calculated site of tephra deposition.A speculative eruptive history for Mt. Takahe is established by combining observations from Mt. Takahe and the Byrd ice core tephra. Initial eruptions at Mt. Takahe were subglacial and then graded into alternating subaerial and subglacial activity. The tephra suggest alternating subaerial magmatic and hydrovolcanic eruptions from 30 to 20 ka B.P., followed by a sustained period of hydrovolcanic eruptions from 20 to 14 ka B.P., which peaked at 18 ka B.P.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
In October 1980, a National Civil Defence Planning Committee on Volcanic Hazards was formed in New Zealand, and solicited reports on the likely areas and types of future eruptions, the risk to public safety, and the need for special precautions. Reports for eight volcanic centres were received, and made available to the authors. This paper summarises and quantifies the type and frequency of hazard, the public risk, and the possibilities for mitigation at the 7 main volcanic centres: Northland, Auckland, White Island, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro, and Egmont. On the basis of Recent tephrostratigraphy, eruption probabilities up to 20% per century (but commonly 5%), and tephra volumes up to 100 km3 are credible.  相似文献   

16.
The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.  相似文献   

17.
Volcanic glass compositions and tephra layer age are critical for anchoring their sources and correlating among different sites; however, such work may be imprecise when the tephra has varied compositions. The ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption (940s AD), a widely distributed tephra layer, has been detected in the far-east areas of Russia, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and in Greenland ice cores. There are some debates on the presence of this tephra from sedimentary archives to the west of Changbaishan volcano, such as lake and peat sediments in the Longgang volcanic field. In this paper, major element compositions for clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides were performed on proximal tephra from Changbaishan and the Millennium eruption ash record in Lake Sihailongwan. Clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides microlites from Sihailongwan show augite- ferroaugite and titanmagnetite compositions, similar to those from dark pumice in Changbaishan proximal tephra, but different from the light grey pumice, which has ferrohedenbergite and ilmenite microlite compositions. This result implies that the tephra recorded in Sihailongwan was mainly from the trachytic eruptive phase of the Millennium eruption, and the rhyolitic eruptive phase made a relatively small contribution to this area. Analyzing clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides microlites is a new method for correlating tephra layers from Changbaishan Millennium eruption.  相似文献   

18.
The Rockeskyllerkopf Volcanic Complex (RVC) comprises three overlapping monogenetic volcanic centers: Southeast Lammersdorf (SEL), Mäuseberg (M) and Rockeskyllerkopf (RKK). Each volcanic center comprises proximal wall deposits with a well defined crater wall unconformity and crater fill deposits that partially to completely cover the outer crater wall. The SEL Center is a phreatomagmatic tuff ring composed of lithic rich tephra deposited by pyroclastic falls and surges. The second center, Mäuseberg, with its crater to the northwest of the SEL Center is predominantly magmatic. Topographic and outcrop patterns suggest that this center may have formed a series of overlapping scoria cones along a N–S trending fissure. The youngest center, RKK, which lies on a poorly developed palaeosol within the earlier Mäuseberg deposits, comprises a well developed proximal crater wall sequence. This sequence of magmatic, likely Strombolian, fall and grain avalanche deposits passes upward into a crater fill sequence that comprises variably welded bombs. The final eruptions in the center were massive lava flows that were ponded within the RKK crater. Ar–Ar age dating of reequilibrated fragments of phlogopite megacrysts in the SEL lavas indicates volcanic activity began at 474?±?39 ka. Literature K–Ar dates for the youngest lava flows in the RKK Center give ages of 360?±?60 to 470 ka. Our interpretation of the age data and the presence of the poorly developed palaeosol between the Mäuseberg and RKK centers indicates that volcanism in the RVC began around 470 ka with the eruption of the SEL and Mäuseberg centers followed a few thousand years later by the eruption of the RKK Center.  相似文献   

19.
At Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador, rhyolitic and andesitic bimodal magmatism has occurred periodically during the past 0.5 Ma. The sequential eruption of rhyolitic (70–75% SiO2) and andesitic (56–62% SiO2) magmas from the same volcanic vent over short time spans and without significant intermingling is characteristic of Cotopaxi’s Holocene behavior. This study documents the eruptive history of Cotopaxi volcano, presenting its stratigraphy and geologic field relations, along with the relevant mineralogical and chemical nature of the eruptive products, in order to determine the temporal and spatial relations of this bimodal alternation. Cotopaxi’s history begins with the Barrancas rhyolite series, dominated by pumiceous ash flows and regional ash falls between 0.4 and 0.5 Ma, which was followed by occasional andesitic activity, the most important being the ample andesitic lava flows (∼4.1 km3) that descended the N and NW sides of the edifice. Following a ∼400 ka long repose without silicic activity, Cotopaxi began a new eruptive phase about 13 ka ago that consisted of seven rhyolitic episodes belonging to the Holocene F and Colorado Canyon series; the onset of each episode occurred at intervals of 300–3,600 years and each produced ash flows and regional tephra falls with DRE volumes of 0.2–3.6 km3. Andesitic tephras and lavas are interbedded in the rhyolite sequence. The Colorado Canyon episode (4,500 years BP) also witnessed dome and sector collapses on Cotopaxi’s NE flank which, with associated ash flows, generated one of the largest cohesive debris flows on record, the Chillos Valley lahar. A thin pumice lapilli fall represents the final rhyolitic outburst which occurred at 2,100 years BP. The pumices of these Holocene rhyolitic eruptions are chemically similar to those of older rhyolites of the Barrancas series, with the exception of the initial eruptive products of the Colorado Canyon series whose chemistry is similar to that of the 211 ka ignimbrite of neighboring Chalupas volcano. Since the Colorado Canyon episode, andesitic magmatism has dominated Cotopaxi’s last 4,400 years, characterized by scoria bomb and lithic-rich pyroclastic flows, infrequent lava flows that reached the base of the cone, andesitic lapilli and ash falls that were carried chiefly to the W, and large debris flows. Andesitic magma emission rates are estimated at 1.65 km3 (DRE)/ka for the period from 4,200 to 2,100 years BP and 1.85 km3 (DRE)/ka for the past 2,100 years, resulting in the present large stratocone.  相似文献   

20.
Volcán Alcedo is one of the seven western Galápagos shields and is the only active Galápagos volcano known to have erupted rhyolite as well as basalt. The volcano stands 4 km above the sea floor and has a subaerial volume of 200 km3, nearly all of which is basalt. As Volcán Alcedo grew, it built an elongate domal shield, which was partly truncated during repeated caldera-collapse and partial-filling episodes. An outward-dipping sequence of basalt flows at least 250 m thick forms the steepest (to 33°) flanks of the volcano and is not tilted; thus a constructional origin for the steep upper flanks is favored. About 1 km3 of rhyolite erupted late in the volcano's history from at least three vents and in 2–5 episodes. The most explosive of these produced a tephra blanket that covers the eastern half of the volcano. Homogeneous rhyolitic pumice is overlain by dacite-rhyolite commingled pumice, with no stratigraphic break. The tephra is notable for its low density and coarse grain size. The calculated height of the eruption plume is 23–30 km, and the intensity is estimated to have been 1.2x108 kg/s. Rhyolitic lavas vented from the floor of the caldera and from fissures along the rim overlie the tephra of the plinian phase. The age of the rhyolitic eruptions is 120 ka, on the basis of K-Ar ages. Between ten and 20 basaltic lava flows are younger than the rhyolites. Recent faulting resulted in a moat around part of the caldera floor. Alcedo most resently erupted sometime between 1946 and 1960 from its southern flank. Alcedo maintains an active, transient hydrothermal system. Acoustic and seismic activity in 1991 is attributed to the disruption of the hydrothermal system by a regional-scale earthquake.  相似文献   

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