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1.
Feng S  Kang S  Huo Z  Chen S  Mao X 《Ground water》2008,46(1):80-90
In arid regions, human activities like agriculture and industry often require large ground water extractions. Under these circumstances, appropriate ground water management policies are essential for preventing aquifer overdraft, and thereby protecting critical ecologic and economic objectives. Identification of such policies requires accurate simulation capability of the ground water system in response to hydrological, meteorological, and human factors. In this research, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and applied to investigate the effects of these factors on ground water levels in the Minqin oasis, located in the lower reach of Shiyang River Basin, in Northwest China. Using data spanning 1980 through 1997, two ANNs were developed to model and simulate dynamic ground water levels for the two subregions of Xinhe and Xiqu. The ANN models achieved high predictive accuracy, validating to 0.37 m or less mean absolute error. Sensitivity analyses were conducted with the models demonstrating that agricultural ground water extraction for irrigation is the predominant factor responsible for declining ground water levels exacerbated by a reduction in regional surface water inflows. ANN simulations indicate that it is necessary to reduce the size of the irrigation area to mitigate ground water level declines in the oasis. Unlike previous research, this study demonstrates that ANN modeling can capture important temporally and spatially distributed human factors like agricultural practices and water extraction patterns on a regional basin (or subbasin) scale, providing both high-accuracy prediction capability and enhanced understanding of the critical factors influencing regional ground water conditions.  相似文献   

2.
Application of the artificial neural network (ANN) to predict pseudospectral acceleration or peak ground acceleration is explored in the study. The training of ANN model is carried out using feed-forward backpropagation method and about 600 records from 39 California earthquakes. The statistics of the residuals or modeling error for the trained ANN-based models are almost the same as those for the parametric ground motion prediction equations, derived through regression analysis; the residual or modeling error can be modeled as a normal variate. The similarity and differences between the predictions by these two approaches are shown. The trained ANN-based models, however, are not robust because the models with almost identical mean square errors do not always lead to the same predictions. This undesirable behaviour for predicting the ground motion measures has not been shown or discussed in the literature; the presented results, at least, serve to raise questions and caution on this problem. A practical approach to ameliorate this problem, perhaps, is to consider several trained ANN models, and to take the average of the predicted values from the trained ANN models as the predicted ground motion measure.  相似文献   

3.
This paper evaluates the feasibility of using an artificial neural network (ANN) methodology for estimating the groundwater levels in some piezometers placed in an aquifer in north‐western Iran. This aquifer is multilayer and has a high groundwater level in urban areas. Spatiotemporal groundwater level simulation in a multilayer aquifer is regarded as difficult in hydrogeology due to the complexity of the different aquifer materials. In the present research the performance of different neural networks for groundwater level forecasting is examined in order to identify an optimal ANN architecture that can simulate the piezometers water levels. Six different types of network architectures and training algorithms are investigated and compared in terms of model prediction efficiency and accuracy. The results of different experiments show that accurate predictions can be achieved with a standard feedforward neural network trained usung the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The structure and spatial regressions of the ANN parameters (weights and biases) are then used for spatiotemporal model presentation. The efficiency of the spatio‐temporal ANN (STANN) model is compared with two hybrid neural‐geostatistics (NG) and multivariate time series‐geostatistics (TSG) models. It is found in this study that the ANNs provide the most accurate predictions in comparison with the other models. Based on the nonlinear intrinsic ANN approach, the developed STANN model gives acceptable results for the Tabriz multilayer aquifer. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
A neural network model for predicting aquifer water level elevations   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed for accurately predicting potentiometric surface elevations (monitoring well water level elevations) in a semiconfined glacial sand and gravel aquifer under variable state, pumping extraction, and climate conditions. ANNs "learn" the system behavior of interest by processing representative data patterns through a mathematical structure analogous to the human brain. In this study, the ANNs used the initial water level measurements, production well extractions, and climate conditions to predict the final water level elevations 30 d into the future at two monitoring wells. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with the ANNs that quantified the importance of the various input predictor variables on final water level elevations. Unlike traditional physical-based models, ANNs do not require explicit characterization of the physical system and related physical data. Accordingly, ANN predictions were made on the basis of more easily quantifiable, measured variables, rather than physical model input parameters and conditions. This study demonstrates that ANNs can provide both excellent prediction capability and valuable sensitivity analyses, which can result in more appropriate ground water management strategies.  相似文献   

5.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed to accurately predict highly time-variable specific conductance values in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Conductance values in the fresh water lens aquifer change in response to vertical displacements of the brackish zone and fresh water-salt water interface, which are caused by variable pumping and climate conditions. Unlike physical-based models, which require hydrologic parameter inputs, such as horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, porosity, and fluid densities, ANNs can "learn" system behavior from easily measurable variables. In this study, the ANN input predictor variables were initial conductance, total precipitation, mean daily temperature, and total pumping extraction. The ANNs were used to predict salinity (specific conductance) at a single monitoring well located near a high-capacity municipal-supply well over time periods ranging from 30 d to several years. Model accuracy was compared against both measured/interpolated values and predictions were made with linear regression, and in general, excellent prediction accuracy was achieved. For example, although the average percent change of conductance over 90-d periods was 39%, the absolute mean prediction error achieved with the ANN was only 1.1%. The ANNs were also used to conduct a sensitivity analysis that quantified the importance of each of the four predictor variables on final conductance values, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the system. The results demonstrate that the ANN technology can serve as a powerful and accurate prediction and management tool, minimizing degradation of ground water quality to the extent possible by identifying appropriate pumping policies under variable and/or changing climate conditions.  相似文献   

6.
The simulation of karstic aquifers is difficult using traditional groundwater numerical simulators, as the exact knowledge of the hydraulic characteristics of the physical system in small scale is rarely available and the numerical simulators produce results of limited reliability. In the present work, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are utilized to predict the response of a karstic aquifer, using the hydraulic head change per time step rather than the hydraulic head itself as output parameter of the network. As it will be demonstrated, in the first case a better approximation of the physical system's response is achieved as the change of the hydraulic head is more naturally connected to the input parameters of the network, which model the aquatic equilibrium of the system. The correlation of rainfall and hydraulic head change per time step was initially used to determine the time lag of the rainfall input data, which represents the time needed by the rainfall to percolate and reach the water table. In a second step, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm is utilized for the optimal selection of rainfall time lag as well as ANN's architecture and training parameters. Although a time consuming procedure, the improvement obtained suggests that the empirical determination of the ANN parameters and structure is not always sufficient and an optimization procedure, which minimizes the training and evaluation errors of the ANN, may provide substantially better simulation results. The optimized networks were finally used for midterm predictions (30 to 90 days ahead) of the hydraulic head, showing the ability of the ANN with hydraulic head change as output parameter to provide predictions with high accuracy at the end of the considered time period. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Classical optimization methodologies based on mathematical theories have been developed for the solution of various constrained environmental design problems. Numerical models have been widely used to represent an environmental system accurately. The use of methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), which approximate the complicated behaviour and response of physical systems, allows the optimization of a large number of case scenarios with different set of constraints within a short period of time, whereas the corresponding simulation time using a numerical model would be prohibitive. In this paper, a combination of an ANN with a differential evolution algorithm is proposed to replace the classical finite‐element numerical model in water resources management problems. The objective of the optimization problem is to determine the optimal operational strategy for the productive pumping wells located in the northern part of Rhodes Island in Greece, to cover the water demand and maintain the water table at certain levels. The conclusions of this study show that the use of ANN as an approximation model could (a) significantly reduce the computational burden associated with the accurate simulation of complex physical systems and (b) provide solutions very close to the optimal ones for various constrained environmental design problems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):502-506
Abstract

Currently, environmental modelling is frequently conducted with the aid of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in an effort to achieve greater accuracy in simulation and forecasting beyond that typically obtained when using solely linear models. For the design of an ANN, modellers must contend with two key issues: (a) the selection of model input and (b) the determination of the number of hidden neurons. A novel approach is introduced to address the optimal design of ANNs based on a multi-objective strategy that enables the user to find a set of feasible ANNs, determined as optimal trade-off solutions between model simplicity and accuracy. This is achieved in a multi-objective fashion by simultaneously minimizing three different cost functions: the model input dimension, the hidden neuron number and the generalization error computed on a validation set of data. The multi-objective approach is based on the Pareto dominance criterion and an evolutionary strategy has been employed to solve the combinatorial optimization problem. From a theoretical perspective, the choice of a multi-objective approach marks an attempt to account for, and overcome, the “curse of dimensionality” and to circumvent the drawbacks of “overfitting” that are inherent in ANNs. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the strategy renders the choice of the ANN more robust, as is evident by “unseen data” in the testing stage, since structure determination is not merely based on the statistical evaluation of the generalization performance. The methodology is tested and the results are reported in a case study relating groundwater level predictions to total monthly rainfall.  相似文献   

9.
J.J. Yu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2117-2131
Abstract

A generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework coupling with artificial neural network (ANN) models in two surrogate schemes (i.e. GAE-S1 and GAE-S2) was proposed to improve the efficiency of uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modelling. The GAE-S1 scheme was to construct an ANN to approximate the relationship between model likelihoods and uncertain parameters for facilitating sample acceptance/rejection instead of running the numerical model directly; thus, it could speed up the Monte Carlo simulation in stochastic sampling. The GAE-S2 scheme was to establish independent ANN models for water depth predictions to emulate the numerical models; it could facilitate efficient uncertainty analysis without additional model runs for locations concerned under various scenarios. The results from a study case showed that both GAE-S1 and GAE-S2 had comparable performances to GLUE in terms of estimation of posterior parameters, prediction intervals of water depth, and probabilistic inundation maps, but with reduced computational requirements. The results also revealed that GAE-S1 possessed a slightly better performance in accuracy (referencing to GLUE) than GAE-S2, but a lower flexibility in application. This study shed some light on how to apply different surrogate schemes in using numerical models for uncertainty assessment, and could help decision makers in choosing cost-effective ways of conducting flood risk analysis.  相似文献   

10.
The secret to successful solute-transport modeling   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
Konikow LF 《Ground water》2011,49(2):144-159
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11.
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12.
Assessment of parameter and predictive uncertainty of hydrologic models is an essential part in the field of hydrology. However, during the past decades, research related to hydrologic model uncertainty is mostly done with conceptual models. As is accepted that uncertainty in model predictions arises from measurement errors associated with the system input and output, from model structural errors and from problems with parameter estimation. Unfortunately, non-conceptual models, such as black-box models, also suffer from these problems. In this paper, we take the artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall-runoff model as an example, and the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (SCEM-UA) is employed to analysis the parameter and predictive uncertainty of this model. Furthermore, based on the results of uncertainty assessment, we finally arrive at a simpler incomplete-connection artificial neural network (ICANN) model as well as with better performance compared to original ANN rainfall-runoff model. These results not only indicate that SCEM-UA can be a useful tool for uncertainty analysis of ANN model, but also prove that uncertainty does exist in ANN rainfall-runoff model. Additionally, in some way, it presents that the ICANN model is with smaller uncertainty than the original ANN model.  相似文献   

13.
Modern ground water characterization and remediation projects routinely require calibration and inverse analysis of large three-dimensional numerical models of complex hydrogeological systems. Hydrogeologic complexity can be prompted by various aquifer characteristics including complicated spatial hydrostratigraphy and aquifer recharge from infiltration through an unsaturated zone. To keep the numerical models computationally efficient, compromises are frequently made in the model development, particularly, about resolution of the computational grid and numerical representation of the governing flow equation. The compromise is required so that the model can be used in calibration, parameter estimation, performance assessment, and analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in model predictions. However, grid properties and resolution as well as applied computational schemes can have large effects on forward-model predictions and on inverse parameter estimates. We investigate these effects for a series of one- and two-dimensional synthetic cases representing saturated and variably saturated flow problems. We show that "conformable" grids, despite neglecting terms in the numerical formulation, can lead to accurate solutions of problems with complex hydrostratigraphy. Our analysis also demonstrates that, despite slower computer run times and higher memory requirements for a given problem size, the control volume finite-element method showed an advantage over finite-difference techniques in accuracy of parameter estimation for a given grid resolution for most of the test problems.  相似文献   

14.
The practical use of simplicity in developing ground water models   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Hill MC 《Ground water》2006,44(6):775-781
The advantages of starting with simple models and building complexity slowly can be significant in the development of ground water models. In many circumstances, simpler models are characterized by fewer defined parameters and shorter execution times. In this work, the number of parameters is used as the primary measure of simplicity and complexity; the advantages of shorter execution times also are considered. The ideas are presented in the context of constructing ground water models but are applicable to many fields. Simplicity first is put in perspective as part of the entire modeling process using 14 guidelines for effective model calibration. It is noted that neither very simple nor very complex models generally produce the most accurate predictions and that determining the appropriate level of complexity is an ill-defined process. It is suggested that a thorough evaluation of observation errors is essential to model development. Finally, specific ways are discussed to design useful ground water models that have fewer parameters and shorter execution times.  相似文献   

15.
An extension of an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to solve the magnetotelluric (MT) inverse problem for azimuthally anisotropic resistivities is presented and applied for a real dataset. Three different model classes, containing general 1-D and 2-D azimuthally anisotropic features, have been considered. For each model class, characteristics of three-layer feed forward ANNs trained through an error back propagation algorithm have been adjusted to approximate the inverse modeling function. It appears that, at least for synthetic models, reasonable results would be obtained by applying the amplitudes of the complex impedance tensor elements as inputs. Furthermore, the Levenberg-Marquart algorithm possesses optimal performance as a learning paradigm for this problem. The evaluation of applicability of the trained ANNs for unknown data sets excluded from the learning procedure reveals that the trained ANNs possess acceptable interpolation and extrapolation abilities to estimate model parameters accurately. This method was also successfully used for a field dataset wherein anisotropy had been previously recognized.  相似文献   

16.
Correct estimation of the scour around vertical piles in the field exposed to oscillatory waves is very important for many offshore structures and coastal engineering projects. Conventional predictive formulas for the geometric properties of scour hole, however, are not able to provide sufficiently accurate results. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are simplified mathematical representation of the human brain. Three-layer normal feed-forward ANN is a powerful tool for input-output mapping and has been widely used in civil engineering problems. In this article the ANNs approach is used to predict the geometric properties of the scour around vertical pile. Two different ANNs including multilayer perceptron (with four different learning rules) and radial basis functions neural networks are used for this purpose. The results show that a three-layer normal feed-forward multilayer perceptron with quick propagation (QP) learning rule can predict the scour hole properties successfully.  相似文献   

17.
 An efficient numerical solution for the two-dimensional groundwater flow problem using artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented. Under stationary velocity conditions with unidirectional mean flow, the conductivity realizations and the head gradients, obtained by a traditional finite difference solution to the flow equation, are given as input-output pairs to train a neural network. The ANN is trained successfully and a certain level of recognition of the relationship between input conductivity patterns and output head gradients is achieved. The trained network produced velocity realizations that are physically plausible without solving the flow equation for each of the conductivity realizations. This is achieved in a small fraction of the time necessary for solving the flow equations. The prediction accuracy of the ANN reaches 97.5% for the longitudinal head gradient and 94.7% for the transverse gradient. Head-gradient and velocity statistics in terms of the first two moments are obtained with a very high accuracy. The cross covariances between head gradients and the fluctuating log-conductivity (log-K) and between velocity and log-K obtained with the ANN approach match very closely those obtained by a traditional numerical solution. The same is true for the velocity components auto-covariances. The results are also extended to transport simulations with very good accuracy. Spatial moments (up to the fourth) of mean-concentration plumes obtained using ANNs are in very good agreement with the traditional Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the concentration second moment (concentration variance) is very close between the two approaches. Considering the fact that higher moments of concentration need more computational effort in numerical simulations, the advantage of the presented approach in saving long computational times is evident. Another advantage of the ANNs approach is the ability to generalize a trained network to conductivity distributions different from those used in training. However, the accuracy of the approach in cases with higher conductivity variances is being investigated.  相似文献   

18.
This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.  相似文献   

19.
Noxious weeds threaten the Sheyenne National Grassland (SNG) ecosystem and therefore herbicides have been used for control. To protect groundwater quality, the herbicide application is restricted to areas where the water table is less than 10 feet (3.05 m) below the ground surface in highly permeable soils, or less than 6 feet (1.83 m) below the ground surface in low permeable soils. A local MODFLOW model was extracted from a regional GFLOW analytic element model and used to develop depth‐to‐groundwater maps in the SNG that are representative for the particular time frame of herbicide applications. These maps are based on a modeled groundwater table and a digital elevation model (DEM). The accuracy of these depth‐to‐groundwater maps is enhanced by an artificial neural networks (ANNs) interpolation scheme that reduces residuals at 48 monitoring wells. The combination of groundwater modeling and ANN improved depth‐to‐groundwater maps, which in turn provided more informed decisions about where herbicides can or cannot be safely applied.  相似文献   

20.
Application of artificial neural network (ANN) models has been reported to solve variety of water resources and environmental related problems including prediction, forecasting and classification, over the last two decades. Though numerous research studies have witnessed the improved estimate of ANN models, the practical applications are sometimes limited. The black box nature of ANN models and their parameters hardly convey the physical meaning of catchment characteristics, which result in lack of transparency. In addition, it is perceived that the point prediction provided by ANN models does not explain any information about the prediction uncertainty, which reduce the reliability. Thus, there is an increasing consensus among researchers for developing methods to quantify the uncertainty of ANN models, and a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods applied in ANN models is an emerging field that calls for further improvements. In this paper, methods used for quantifying the prediction uncertainty of ANN based hydrologic models are reviewed based on the research articles published from the year 2002 to 2015, which focused on modeling streamflow forecast/prediction. While the flood forecasting along with uncertainty quantification has been frequently reported in applications other than ANN in the literature, the uncertainty quantification in ANN model is a recent progress in the field, emerged from the year 2002. Based on the review, it is found that methods for best way of incorporating various aspects of uncertainty in ANN modeling require further investigation. Though model inputs, parameters and structure uncertainty are mainly considered as the source of uncertainty, information of their mutual interaction is still lacking while estimating the total prediction uncertainty. The network topology including number of layers, nodes, activation function and training algorithm has often been optimized for the model accuracy, however not in terms of model uncertainty. Finally, the effective use of various uncertainty evaluation indices should be encouraged for the meaningful quantification of uncertainty. This review article also discusses the effectiveness and drawbacks of each method and suggests recommendations for further improvement.  相似文献   

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