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The cyclone wave parameters are predicted using Young’s parametric hurricane wave prediction model. The input cyclone tracks
for this work are obtained from Fleet Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center, USA. Extreme value analysis is carried out
to obtain the wave heights and periods for 1 in 5, 10, 50 and 100 years return periods, respectively. The deep-water hindcast
wave corresponding to 100 years from probable directions are allowed to propagate to Visakhapatnam coastal waters using nearshore
spectral wind-wave mode. The offshore wave height for one in 100-year return period is 11.9 m, and the corresponding nearshore
wave height at 10-m water depth varies between 4.6 and 5.6 m depending on the directional spreading. Weibull distribution
is chosen to fit the 24 cyclonic data sets over a total period of 30 years (September 1972 to November 2002). This paper demonstrates
usefulness of Young’s wave model for deep-water extreme wave hindcasting. Further, the results of the present study would
be highly useful for assessing the design wave height for Visakhapatnam coast. 相似文献
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Ross M. Renner 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(4):485-497
If a geochemical compositional dataset
X (n×p)is a realization of a physical mixing process, then each of its sample (row) vectors will approximately be a convex combination (mixture) of a fixed set of (l×p)extreme compositions termed endmembers. The kpoints in p-space corresponding to a specified set of k (klinearly independent endmember estimates associated with a p-variate (n×p)compositional dataset
X,define the vertices of a (k–1)dimensional simplex
H.The nestimated mixtures
X (n×p)which together account for the systematic variation in the dataset
X,should each be convex combinations of the kfixed endmember estimates. Accordingly,the npoints in p-space which represent these mixtures should be interior points of the simplex
H.Otherwise, for each sample point which lies outside
H,at least one of the mixture coefficients (endmember contributions) will be negative. The purpose of this paper is to describe procedures for expanding
H
in the situation that its vertices are not a set of extreme points for the set which represents the mixtures. 相似文献
4.
The classical extreme value theory based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is applied to the wave height estimate based on wave hindcast data covering a period of 31?years for a location in the eastern Arabian Sea. Practical concern such as the threshold selection and model validation is discussed. Estimates of wave height having different return periods are compared with estimates obtained from different distributions. On comparing the distributions fitted to the GEV with annual maximum approach and GPD with peaks over threshold approach have indicated that both GEV and GPD models gave similar or comparable wave height for the study area since there is no multiple storm event in a year. Influence of seasonality on wave height having different return period is also studied. 相似文献
5.
On the basis of the negative binomial distribution of the duration of wet periods calculated per day, an asymptotic model is proposed for distributing the maximum daily rainfall volume during the wet period, having the form of a mixture of Frechet distributions and coinciding with the distribution of the positive degree of a random variable having the Fisher–Snedecor distribution. The method of proving the corresponding result is based on limit theorems for extreme order statistics in samples of a random volume with a mixed Poisson distribution. The adequacy of the models proposed and methods of their statistical analysis is demonstrated by the example of estimating the extreme distribution parameters based on real data. 相似文献
6.
The extreme diversity of uranium deposits 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
Michel Cuney 《Mineralium Deposita》2009,44(1):3-9
Most available classifications of uranium deposits are based on the characteristics of the host rocks or on the morphology
of the ore deposits. The aim of the present paper is to propose the basis for a genetic classification of these deposits.
After a short introduction on the geochemical behavior of uranium in fluids and silicate melts and on the main uranium fractionation
mechanisms operating in uranium-rich peraluminous, metaluminous, and peralkaline melts, the most recent metallogenic models
of the main types of uranium deposits are shortly reviewed. 相似文献
7.
Several recent extreme natural events resulted in great humanitarian tragedies because of weak preventive disaster management.
Here we analyze several factors (natural, economical, political, awareness, and preparedness) that brought about the humanitarian
tragedies of the early 21st century. We discuss then the role of science in the preventive disaster management of extreme
natural events. 相似文献
8.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):591-594
Evolutionists have often had a marked tendency to think that, in the course of time, planetary events were not very different from those occurring during a human life. However, when a ‘non-human’ timescale is used, the history of our planet appears profoundly and frequently disturbed by extreme events. These events, even not always instantaneous, impose – because of their amplitude – a severe sorting, not between individuals of a species, but between species, or even between phyla. In the face of an extreme event, intraspecific diversity counts little: it is the interspecific diversity that makes the difference. As shown by mass extinctions, extreme events open ecological niches and redistribute the cards of life, giving survivors opportunities to radiate. The capacity to cope with extreme ecological conditions favours certain species in ecosystems, not certain individuals in populations. This is not a macroevolutionary process in terms of acquiring new adaptations, but a macroevolutionary process in terms of sorting entire sections of life. The most important is perhaps that the current ‘mediatisation’ of a limited number of mass extinctions dissimulates less important extinctions caused by less extreme and more localized events that were possibly responsible for many changes in the composition and structure of communities throughout the evolution. The term of ‘pre-adaptation’ has been neglected, because it gives an impression of finalism, but it expresses well that, when an unexpected event occurs, a particular species has or has not the ‘right genes’ to continue to sustain viable populations. The role of extreme events in modifying the course of evolution should not be underestimated. 相似文献
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This study addresses the impact of nonlinear wave evolution on the resulting wave force values on a vertical wall. To this end, the problem of interaction between non-breaking water waves and a vertical wall over constant depth is investigated. The investigation is performed using a two-dimensional wave flume model which is based on the high-order spectral method. Wave generation is simulated at the flume entrance by means of the additional potential concept. This model enables to preserve full dispersivity. Therefore, the model enables to examine the role of nonlinear evolution in the formation of extreme wave force values on a vertical wall for a wide range of water depths. The results for the force exerted on a vertical wall are presented for shallow and deep water conditions. In shallow water, extreme wave force values occur due to the formation of an undular bore. In deep water, extreme wave forces have been obtained as a result of disintegration process of incident wave groups into envelope solitons. Multiple maximum force values have been detected for each of the highest run-up peaks. This phenomenon has been introduced in shallow water conditions and is extended here for deep water conditions. 相似文献
11.
Apatites occurring in lateritic residues derived from high-grade metamorphic rocks from Sri Lanka are hydroxy-apatite as indicated by EPMA and XRD. Weathered phosphates and weathered crystalline products are composed of carbonate fluorapatite, crandallite, wardite, fluellite, kaolinite, goethite and gibbsite. EDAX, DTA and SIMS show the presence of amorphous materials, such as oxides of Fe, Al, Si, Al+Si, and S, on the surface of weathered phosphate. Using SEM, TEM, EDAX and electron diffraction techniques, the presence of these amorphous and crystalline materials with several transitions has been clearly identified in weathered phosphate. Recrystallization of phosphate occurred during weathering by dissolution, nucleation and precipitation. The lattice images of hydroxyapatite are gradually increased from 8.3-A basal spacings by weathering, and form mosaic bound fragments. Chondrite-, shale- and phosphorite concretion-normalized REE patterns of these apatites, known to have sedimentary origins, suggest enrichment and remobilisation during post-depositional reworking. 相似文献
12.
Thunderstorm overshooting is rare but not an unusual phenomenon in a metropolitan of India, Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E) during the pre-monsoon months (April–May). An attempt is made in this study to identify the important parameters differentiating the thunderstorms in overshooting and non-overshooting categories through data analytics from 2000 to 2015. The present investigation on parametric classification would facilitate in estimating the predictability of thunderstorms with overshooting which subsequently might assist in operational forecast of thunderstorm severity over Kolkata. The altitudes of lifting condensation level (LCL), wind shear, bulk Richardson number (BRN), gust speed, boundary layer characteristics and their correlation with thunderstorm cloud top height (CTH) and also their variation and distribution during overshooting (OTS) and non-overshooting (TS) thunderstorms are analyzed in this study. The result depicts that over Kolkata the intensity of storms during OTS is higher than during TS though the frequency of OTS is less than that of TS. The results further show that the potential temperature (θ), equivalent potential temperature (θe), mixing ratio (es) in the boundary layer, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, BRN and gust speed play significant roles in regulating the CTH during OTS and TS thunderstorms over Kolkata.
相似文献13.
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We describe and give hydrological applications of a probabilistic model based on extreme value theory which can be used to study the values of a hydrologic process that exceed a certain threshold level Q
B
.This model is useful in estimating extreme events X
T
of return period T based on N years of available hydrologic record. We also present easy-to-use tables which give confidence intervals for X
T
.The hydrologic applications reported are a flood frequency analysis, a methodology for estimating flood damage, an estimation of precipitation probabilities, and a prediction of extreme tide levels. 相似文献
15.
河口三角洲和沿海城市面临着台风、暴雨、高潮位和上游下泄洪水叠加的“四碰头”复合极端风暴洪水的严重威胁。构建了大气-海洋-陆地相耦合的一体化数值模拟系统,实现了上海市“风”“暴”“潮”“洪”多灾种复合情景的极端洪涝淹没模拟,并验证了耦合方法的有效性,为复合风暴洪水的一体化模拟提供了一套可行的数值模拟方法。在9711台风影响下,模拟了1998年堤防升级改造后淹没面积(水深>0.2m)比改造前减少了62%,表明沿海沿江堤防设施建设在上海市防台防汛中起着关键性的作用。复合极端风暴洪水的有效模拟可为财产保险和未来市政规划提供参考。 相似文献
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极端环境下的微生物及其生物地球化学作用 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
极端微生物是地球生物圈的重要组成部分。极端微生物的地球化学定位在微生物学与地球化学以及一些相关学科的交叉点上,最近10年已经发展成为地质生物学研究的热门领域。对极端微生物的研究不仅有助于回答生命起源、生命极限、生命本质甚至其他生命形式等生命科学问题,而且其生物地球化学作用在地球系统科学研究中具有重大科学研究价值,对揭示生物圈与地圈协同演化的奥秘、认识生命与环境相互作用规律及地球的化学演化提供重要证据。总结了嗜热菌、嗜冷菌、嗜酸菌、嗜碱菌、嗜压菌、嗜盐菌以及抗辐射菌的主要类群,论述了极端微生物适应环境的机制,探讨了极端微生物的生物地球化学意义。作者预测未来将会在生物标志化合物研究、同位素地球化学分析和分子生物学综合研究的基础上协同推进极端微生物地球化学学科的发展。 相似文献
18.
Bay of Bengal cyclone extreme water level estimate uncertainty 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
19.
The disastrous effects of numerous winter storms on the marine environment in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea during the
last decade show that wind waves generated by strong winds actually represent natural hazards and require high quality wave
forecast systems as warning tools to avoid losses due to the impact of rough seas. Hence, the operational wave forecast system
running at the German Weather Service including a regional wave model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is checked extensively
whether it provides reasonable wave forecasts, especially for periods of extraordinary high sea states during winter storms.
For two selected extreme storm events that induced serious damage in the area of interest, comprehensive comparisons between
wave measurements and wave model forecast data are accomplished. Spectral data as well as integrated parameters are considered,
and the final outcome of the corresponding comparisons and statistical analysis is encouraging. Over and above the capability
to provide good short-term forecast results, the regional wave model is able to predict extreme events as severe winter storms
connected with extraordinary high waves already about 2 days in advance. Therefore, it represents an appropriate warning tool
for offshore activities and coastal environment. 相似文献
20.
In this research, we conduct a case study of mapping polymetallic prospectivity using an extreme learning machine (ELM) regression. A Quad-Core CPU 1.8 GHz laptop computer served as hardware platform. Almeida's Python program was used to construct the ELM regression model to map polymetallic prospectivity of the Lalingzaohuo district in Qinghai Province in China. Based on geologic, metallogenic, and statistical analyses of the study area, one target and eight predictor map patterns and two training sets were then used to train the ELM regression and logistic regression models. ELM regression modeling using the two training sets spends 61.4 s and 65.9 s; whereas the logistic regression modeling using the two training sets spends 1704.0 s and 1628.0 s. The four trained regression models were used to map polymetallic prospectivity. Based on the polymetallic prospectivity predicted by each model, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted and the area under the curve (AUC) was estimated. The ROC curves show that the two ELM-regression-based models somewhat dominate the two logistic-regression-based models over the ROC performance space; and the AUC values indicate that the overall performances of the two ELM-regression-based models are somewhat better than those of the two logistic-regression-based models. Hence, the ELM-regression-based models slightly outperform the logistic-regression-based models in mapping polymetallic prospectivity. Polymetallic targets were optimally delineated by using the Youden index to maximize spatial association between the delineated polymetallic targets and the discovered polymetallic deposits. The polymetallic targets predicted by the two ELM-regression-based models occupy lower percentage of the study area (2.66–2.68%) compared to those predicted by the two logistic-regression-based models (4.96%) but contain the same percentage of the discovered polymetallic deposits (82%). Therefore, the ELM regression is a useful fast-learning data-driven model that slightly outperforms the widely used logistic regression model in mapping mineral prospectivity. The case study reveals that the magmatic complexes, which intruded into the Baishahe Formation of the Paleoproterozoic Jinshuikou Group or the Carboniferous Dagangou and Shiguaizi Formations, and which were controlled by northwest-western/east-western trending deep faults, are critical for polymetallic mineralization and need to be paid much attention to in future mineral exploration in the study area. 相似文献