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1.
In this paper the optimal precursors for wintertime Eurasian blocking onset are acquired by solving a nonlinear optimization problem whose objective function is constructed based on a blocking index with a triangular T21,three-level,quasi-geostrophic global spectral model.The winter climatological state is chosen as the reference basic state.Numerical results show that the optimal precursors are characterized by a baroclinic pattern with a westward tilt with height,which are mainly located upstream of the blocking region.For an optimization time of 5 days,these perturbations are mainly localized over the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and continental Europe.With the extension of the optimization time to 8 days,these perturbations are distributed more upstream and extensively in the zonal direction.Wave spectrum analysis reveals that the optimal precursors are composed of not only synoptic-scale(wave numbers 5-18) waves,but planetary-scale(wave numbers 0-4) waves as well.The synoptic-scale optimal precursors are mainly located in the mid-latitude area,while the planetary-scale optimal precursors focus primarily on the highlatitude region.The formation of a strong planetary-scale positive blocking anomaly is accompanied by the reinforcement of synoptic-scale perturbations and further fragmentation into two branches,in which the northern branch is generally stronger than the southern one.The eddy forcing arising from the selfinteraction of synoptic-scale disturbances is shown to be crucial in triggering the dipole blocking anomaly,and the planetary-scale optimal precursor provides the initial favorable background conditions for blocking onset. 相似文献
2.
In this paper, a new transient forced quasi-resonant triad interaction
theory in a beta channel is proposed to investigate the interaction between
planetary-scale diffluent flow composed of zonal wavenumbers 1--3 and
synoptic-scale waves produced continuously by a synoptic-scale vorticity
source fixed upstream of an incipient blocking region during the life cycle
of blocking. It is shown that the superposition of initial three Rossby
waves for zonal wavenumbers 1 (monopole), 2 (dipole), and 3 (monopole),
which permit triad quasi-resonance, can represent an incipient blocking
event. The synoptic-scale eddies may act to amplify the incipient blocking
and to excite a blocking circulation with a strong meander, whose flow
pattern depends on the initial amplitudes of the planetary waves and both
the intensity and location of preexisting synoptic-scale waves. The onset
(decay) of the planetary-scale split-flow blocking is mainly represented by
a strong increase (decrease) in the amplitude of the zonal wavenumber 2
component, having a dipole meridional structure related to the preexisting
synoptic-scale eddies. The typical persistence time of the model blocking
was of about 20 days, consistent with observations of blocking patterns.
In our model, isolated asymmetric dipole blocking is formed by
synoptic-scale waves. The instantaneous fields of total streamfunctions
exhibit a remarkable resemblance to the synoptic maps observed during the
life cycle of blocking. During the onset stage, the synoptic-scale waves are
enhanced and split into two branches around the blocking region due to the
feedback of the amplified blocking, in agreement with the observed changes
of synoptic-scale waves in real blocking events. In addition, a diagnostic
case study of blocking is presented to confirm the forced quasi-resonant
triad interaction theory proposed here. 相似文献
3.
1. IntroductionIn the mid--high latitudes, l' blocking flow" is an importaht part of the low--frequency variability of the atmospheric circulation. Owing to its longevity and large amplitude, a blocking flow configuration can usually cause prolonged anomalous weather situations over certain extratropical regions. Therefore, it has been a primary interest of many synoptic anddynamical meteorologists. In the past decades, the interaction of planetary waves with migratory, synoptic--scale waves h… 相似文献
4.
With the aid of a global barotropic model, the role of the interaction of the synoptic-scale disturbance and the planetary flow in block onset is examined by a 4-dimensional variational approach. A cost function is defined to measure the squared errors of the forecasted stream functions during block onset period (day 4 and day 5 in this study) over a selected blocking domain. The sensitivity of block onset with respect to the initial synoptic-scale disturbance is studied by examining the gradient of the defined cost function with respect to the initial (during the first 24 hours) vorticity forcing, which is evaluated by the adjoint integration. Furthermore, the calculated cost function and gradient are connected with the limited-memory quasi-Newton optimization algorithm for solving the optimal initial vorticity forcing for block onset. For two studied cases of block onset (northern Atlantic and northern Pacific) introducing the optimal initial vorticity forcing, the nonlinear barotropic advection process mostly reconstructs these blocking onset processes. The results show that the formation of blocking can be correctly described by a barotropic nonlinear advection process, in which the wave- (synoptic-scale) flow (planetary-scale) interaction plays a very important role. On an appropriate planetary-scale flow, a certain synoptic-scale disturbance can cause the blocking onset by the interaction between the synoptic scale perturbations and the planetary scale basic flows. The extended forecasts show that the introduction of the optimal initial vorticity forcing can predict the blocking process up to the 7th or 8th day in this simple model case. The experimental results in this study show that the 4-dimensional variational approach has a good potential to be applied to study the dynamics of the medium-range weather processes. This simple model case study is only an initial trial. Applying the framework in this study to a complex model will further our understanding of the mechanism of the atmospheric/oceanic processes and improve their prediction. 相似文献
5.
It has long been known that incipient tropical cyclones (TCs) always occur in
synoptic-scale disturbances or tropical cyclogenesis precursors, and the disturbances can
intensify only within a limited area during tropical cyclogenesis. An observational analysis
of five tropical cyclogenesis events over the western North Pacific during 11 August to 10
September 2004 is conducted to demonstrate the role of synoptic-scale disturbances in
establishing a limited area of low-deformation vorticity for tropical cyclogenesis.
The analysis of the five tropical cyclogenesis events shows that synoptic-scale tropical
cyclogenesis precursors provide a region of low-deformation vorticity, which is measured with
large positive values of the Okubo-Weiss (OW) parameter. The OW concentrated areas are within
the tropical cyclogenesis precursors with a radius of about 400-500 km and can be found as
early as 72 hours prior to the formation of the tropical depression. When the TCs reached the
tropical storm intensity, the concentrated OW is confined to an area of 200-300 radius and the
storm centers are coincident with the centers of the maximum OW. This study indicates that the
tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the low-deformation 18-72 hours prior to the formation of
tropical depressions, suggesting the importance of low-deformation vorticity in pre-existent
synoptic-scale disturbances. Although the Rossby radius of deformation is reduced in TC
genesis precedes, the reduction does not sufficiently make effective conversion of convective
heating into kinetic energy within the low-deformation area. Further analysis indicates that
the initial development of four of the five disturbances is coupled with the counterclockwise
circulation of the mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) wave. 相似文献
6.
Summary Conceptual models of blocking structures are constructed by reducing the two-dimensional atmospheric vorticity field to a
few point vortices. The flow is assumed to be barotropic and divergence-free, and a blocking event is represented by a point
vortex dipole. The focus is here on the motion of the blocking dipole under the influence of the zonal mean flow. This is
modelled in three different ways: A dipole embedded in a latitude-dependent zonal mean flow exhibits neutrally stable oscillations;
their period is estimated analytically. A cyclonic point vortex approaching from upstream can either pass the dipole or break
it up, so that an Ω-shaped pattern of three vortices emerges. The stationarity of a blocking between two troughs is modelled
by four point vortices.
These low-order point vortex models are compared with the dynamics of real blockings in case studies. Despite their high degree
of simplification, those models reproduce the kinematics of blocking events properly. This results from the discretization
of the flow to its actual physical states, the vortices, in contrast to the common, purely mathematical discretization to
grid points. Thus, point vortex dynamics are proposed to be a powerful completion of continuous fluid dynamics in explaining
blocking events.
Received August 30, 1999 Revised December 22, 1999 相似文献
7.
天气尺度波激发的阻塞流的生命循环:观测结果和数值试验 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过观测研究证实了天气尺度波激发的阻塞流的生命循环是频散和非频散之间的转换过程。除此之外，进行了一个数值试验，发现天气尺度波似乎对阻塞的形成和支配作用，而地形似乎起位相锁相的作用。同时可以发现天气尺度波在阻塞的产生过程中分裂成两支。这些结果支持了我们所得到的观测结果。 相似文献
8.
A parametrically excited higher-order nonlinear Schr dinger (NLS) equation is derived to describe the interaction of a ,slowly moving planetary-scale envelope Rossby soliton for zonal wavenumber-two with a wavenumber-two topography under the LG-type dipole near-resonant condition. The numerical solution of this equation is made. It is found that in a weak background westerly wind satisfying the LG-type dipole near-resonance condition, when an incipient envelope Rossby soliton is located in the topographic trough and propagates slowly, it can be amplified through the near-resonant forcing of wavenumber-two topography and can exhibit an oscillation.However, this soliton can break up after a long time and excite a train of small amplitude waves that propagate westward. In addition, it is observed that in the soliton-topography interaction the topographically near-resonantly forced planetary-scale soliton has a slowly westward propagation, but a slowly eastward propagation after a certain time. The instantaneous total streamfunction fields of the topographically forced planetary-scale soliton are found to bear remarkable resemblance to the initiation, maintenance and decay of observed omega-type blocking high and dipole blocking. The soliton perturbation theory is used to examine the role of a wavenumber-two topography in near-resonantly forcing omega-type blocking high and dipole blocking. It can be shown that in the amplifying process of forced planetary-scale soliton, due to the inclusion of the higher order terms its group velocity gradually tends to be equal to its phase velocity so that the block envelope and carrier wave can be phase-locked at a certain time.This shows that the initiation of blocking is a transfer of amplified envelope soliton system from dispersion to nondispersion. However, there exists a reverse process during the decay of blocking. It appears that in the higher latitude regions, the planetary-scale envelope soliton-topography interaction could be regarded as a possible mechanism of the establishment of blocking. 相似文献
9.
10.
在局地阻塞形成前期的原地一般有比较弱的高压脊存在，在这个高压脊上可以逐形成局地阻塞高压或偶极子阻塞。本文将局地阻塞形成前期的弱高压脊环流看成是具有反气旋式切变的带状基本西风，在此基础上用Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ孤立波理论研究了局地阻高和偶极子阻塞的动力学特征及其区别，得到了一些结果。 相似文献
11.
利用NCL滤波方法将NCEP提供的FNL风场资料分离出天气尺度,准双周振荡(QBWO,Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation)和热带季节内振荡(MJO,Madden-Julian Oscillation)环流场,研究不同时间尺度环流对台风"天鹅"(1515)突变路径的影响。台风路径的特征能够分3个阶段,其中第二阶段台风发生突然转折。第一阶段,天气尺度上台风东侧的反气旋和QBWO环流场中的波列共同引导台风向西偏北方向运动,而MJO环流场中的引导气流作用较小;第二阶段,天气尺度上台风东侧的反气旋和低频环流场中台风附近的气旋共同促进了"天鹅"近90°的突然转向,其中,高、低频分量分别促使台风突然向北、向东转向;第三阶段,天气尺度上的气旋与反气旋、QBWO环流场中的反气旋以及MJO环流场中的脊共同引导"天鹅"向东北方向运动,其中MJO环流场中气旋附近的偏东风促使"天鹅"向西运动,但由于它被天气尺度上强烈的偏西风所抵消,故"天鹅"仍向东运动。 相似文献
12.
In this paper, we first review the research advancements in blocking dynamics and highlight the merits and drawbacks of the previous theories of atmospheric blocking. Then, the dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric blocking are presented based on a nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI) model. Previous studies suggested that the eddy deformation(e.g., eddy straining, wave breaking, and eddy merging) might lead to the formation and maintenance of atmospheric blocking.However, the results were specu... 相似文献
13.
14.
Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Targeted Observation Studies of the Atmosphere and Ocean 
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下载免费PDF全文 This paper reviews progress in the application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation to targeted observation studies of the atmosphere and ocean in recent years, with a focus on the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, Kuroshio path variations, and blocking events. Through studying the optimal precursor （OPR） and optimally growing initial error （OGE） of the occurrence of the above events, the similarity and localization features of OPR and OGE spatial structures have been found for each event. Ideal hindcasting experiments have shown that, if initial errors are reduced in the areas with the largest amplitude for the OPR and OGE for ENSO and Kuroshio path variations, the forecast skill of the model for these events is significantly improved. Due to the similarity between patterns of the OPR and OGE, additional observations implemented in the same sensitive region would help to not only capture the precursors, but also reduce the initial errors in the predictions, greatly increasing the forecast abilities. The similarity and localization of the spatial structures of the OPR and OGE during the onset of blocking events have also been investigated, but their application to targeted observation requires further study. 相似文献
15.
In this paper we explore the impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the optimal growth of initial condition error of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction using singular vector (SV) analysis. This is performed by comparing and analyzing SVs of two hybrid coupled models (HCMs), one composed of an intermediate complexity dynamical ocean model coupled with a linear statistical atmospheric model, and the other one with the same ocean model coupled with a nonlinear statistical atmosphere. Tangent linear and adjoint models for both HCMs are developed. SVs are computed under the initial conditions of seasonal background and actual ENSO cycle simulated by the ocean model forced with the real wind data of 1980–1999. The optimization periods of 3, 6 and 9 months are individually considered. The results show that the first SVs in both HCMs are very similar to each other, characterized by a central east-west dipole pattern spanning over the entire tropical Pacific. The spatial patterns of the leading SV in both HCMs are not sensitive to optimization periods and initial time. However, the first singular value, indicating the optimal growth rate of prediction error, displays considerable differences between the two HCMs, indicating a significant impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the optimal growth of ENSO prediction error. These differences are greater with increasing optimization time, suggesting that the impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the optimal growth of prediction error becomes larger for a longer period of prediction. 相似文献
16.
Over south-eastern Europe, severe weather events are often associated with Mediterranean cyclones. This paper presents a climatic study of severe storms over Bulgaria produced by synoptic-scale Mediterranean cyclones, which are the main high-impact weather systems for the region during the winter season. The study is based on a synoptically oriented data set that contains systematic information about the pronounced Mediterranean cyclones including their life and trajectories over the Mediterranean area and the severe storms over Bulgaria produced by them. The definition of a severe storm is a storm in which the wind speed and precipitation exceed thresholds of 15 m/s and 30 mm/24 h, respectively. The observed severe storms were split into two groups by the number of districts where they have caused damages. During the last years a trend of decreasing numbers of initiating synoptic-scale Mediterranean cyclones has been observed. However, the number of those producing a high-impact weather phenomenon over Bulgaria has increased. In these high-impact cases, the observed paths of the cyclones are connected to the specific circulation conditions over the region. In the most severe cases, almost 80% of the cyclones move through the southernmost parts of Balkan Peninsula and for a large portion of them, this motion is associated with a blocking regime in the mid-level mass field.The development of such Mediterranean cyclone cases has been studied and results are presented here. The results illustrate the synoptic-scale mechanisms for intensification of a feeding flow of Mediterranean air towards the area affected by extremely severe weather. 相似文献
17.
条件非线性最优扰动法在大气与海洋目标观测研究中的应用 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
对近年来用条件非线性最优扰动法研究大气与海洋目标观测问题的部分工作进行了总结,主要涉及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件、黑潮路径变异事件以及阻塞事件。通过研究这些事件发生的最优前期征兆（OPR）和最快增长初始误差（OGE）,发现这些事件的最优前期征兆和最快增长初始误差分别具有空间的高度相似性及其伴随的局地性特征。理想回报试验表明,如果在ENSO事件和黑潮路径变异事件的最快增长初始误差和最优前期征兆所确定的扰动大值区减小初始场误差,上述事件的预报技巧会大幅度提高;最优前期征兆和最快增长初始误差的空间相似性使得在同一敏感区域增加额外观测,不仅有助于捕捉上述异常事件的前期信号,还可以有效减小初始误差,从而提高对该事件的预报技巧。阻塞事件爆发的最优前期征兆和最快增长初始误差的空间相似性和局地性特征在其目标观测研究中的应用,应该是深入研究的课题。 相似文献
18.
季风槽中热带气旋生成初期扰动的扰动动能收支分析 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
热带气旋总是发生在天气尺度扰动中,本文利用NCEP/NCAR提供的FNL资料,选取了2004年8月11日—9月10日期间季风槽中5个热带气旋生成初期扰动,通过计算动能收支分析这些初期扰动的发展。其中4个热带气旋都是生成在向西北方向传播的天气尺度波列的气旋性环流中,气旋性环流可以和呈东北—西南方向倾斜西传的MRG波的逆时针环流耦合。动能收支计算表明,初期扰动动能在热带气旋生成前12~72 h不断增加,扰动位势通量的辐合对扰动动能增长起了主要作用。在季风槽东端的合流区时,能量聚集项有重要作用,随着扰动移入季风槽内,低频纬向风切变项成为能量增加的一个重要来源。Sarika生成于季风槽西撤阶段,非线性作用项对扰动发展起了关键作用。 相似文献
19.
M. L. Kaplan A. W. Huffman K. M. Lux J. J. Charney A. J. Riordan Y.-L. Lin 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,88(3-4):129-152
Summary In this paper, we describe the results of 44 case study analyses of synoptic scale data sets that define the atmospheric structure prior to the development of accident-producing turbulence. First, the 44 case studies are categorized as a function of the location, altitude, time of year, time of day, and turbulence environment, i.e., in clear air, cloudiness, convection, near mountains, or in the proximity of deep convection. It is noteworthy that this later category was much more ubiquitous than was anticipated. Second, NCEP Reanalysis data sets as well as both visible and infrared satellite imagery are employed to diagnose predictor fields associated with the synoptic-scale environment preceding severe turbulence. These predictor fields are calculated based on jet stream configuration, kinematic, dynamical, and thermodynamic analyses of the synoptic-scale atmosphere.The results of these analyses indicate a prevalence of severe accident-producing turbulence within the entrance region of the polar or subtropical jet stream at the synoptic-scale. Typically, there is a region of flow curvature located just upstream within the jet entrance region, convection is present within 100km of the accident, the vertical motion is upward typically within the curved entrance region, absolute vorticity is low, the vertical wind shear is increasing with time, and horizontal cold air advection is substantial. Not all of the 44-case studies conform to this entrance region paradigm. However, most do and the most consistent predictor of severe turbulence is upstream curvature in the synoptic-scale flow. Nearby convection is the second most ubiquitous predictor field. Upward vertical motion, low absolute vorticity, and horizontal cold air advection are all typical predictors in case studies occurring both within the entrance and exit regions of the polar or subtropical jet stream.Current affiliation: USDA/Forest Service, North Central Research Station, East Lansing, MI 48823. 相似文献
20.
In connection with analysis of anomalous weather in summer of 2010, the state-of-the-art is reviewed of climatology of the
blocking anticyclones, of mechanism for their onset and persistence, as well as possibilities of their forecasting. The main
results are quoted on occurrence frequency, intensity, and duration of blockings and on their connection with features of
general circulation of the atmosphere in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. As the primary cause of the blocking formation,
nonlinear instability of the Rossby waves is considered with intense energy exchange with planetary waves and with synoptic-scale
eddies. Mathematical means have been developed to investigate the energy exchange on the real data of objective analysis (reanalysis).
This approach can be applied to analyze causes of anomalous duration of the summer blocking. From the point of view of forecasting,
blockings do not differ much from other atmospheric pressure systems. Namely, within the framework of medium-range forecasting,
the blocking onset, under condition of its absence in the initial fields, can be predicted with a projection of several days;
also, the ensemble forecasts are generally more successful than those obtained with any single model. The blocking duration
and decay can be predicted successfully within the medium-range forecasting. 相似文献