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1.
情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究，2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提出了共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景，SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程；阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果；探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系；并展望了SSPs应用前景。 相似文献
2.
亚非夏季风系统包括非洲夏季风、南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风。它是全球季风系统中具有高度整体一致性变化的系统,其主要原因是亚非夏季风系统具有相同的主要驱动力:AMO(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,大西洋多年代际振荡)和PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,太平洋年代际振荡)海洋年代际变化模态。在此前提下,本文首先阐述了AMO对亚非夏季风的强迫作用与遥相关作用,特别强调了它在亚非夏季风及其降水年代际转型中的作用;其次讨论了PDO与冬春积雪的年代际变化对东亚夏季风雨带的协同作用;最后综合分析了AMO、PDO与IOBM(Indian Ocean Basin Mode,印度洋海盆一致模态)的协同作用,指出印度洋海洋模态在年代尺度上独立于AMO与PDO的相关组合,主要起着加强东亚夏季风活动的作用。 相似文献
3.
基于共享社会经济路径的中国经济发展趋势及其影响要素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于最新的经济和人口普查及逐年统计年鉴,采用柯布?道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预测模型,分析了共享社会经济路径(SSPs)框架下中国“全面二孩”政策后2010—2100年经济发展趋势,并解析了劳动投入量、资本投入量和全要素生产率对经济发展的贡献率。研究发现：(1)不同的社会经济发展政策下,21世纪中国经济均呈增加趋势,GDP增速在2030年前基本维持在6%上下,但2030—2060年代迅速下降,2070年代起SSP1和SSP4路径下增幅低于0.5%,SSP2、SSP3和SSP5路径下增幅保持在0.5%~1.5%。(2)影响经济发展的三要素中,劳动投入量在SSP3路径下先减后增,于2060年代达到谷值;在其他路径下均先增后减,于2020年代达到峰值。资本投入量在SSP1路径下持续增加,2080年代起趋于平缓;其他路径下均呈持续增加趋势,但在SSP4路径下,在2060和2070年代有所下降。全要素生产率在所有路径下均呈增加趋势。(3)改革开放以来,资本投入量是影响我国经济增长最主要的因素。未来,SSP1和SSP2路径下,全要素生产率逐渐成为经济发展的主导因素;而SSP5路径下,资本投入量仍是影响经济发展的主要因素。 相似文献
4.
The paper sets out a proposal for bridging and linking three approaches to the analysis of transitions to sustainable and low-carbon societies: quantitative systems modelling; socio-technical transition analysis; and initiative-based learning. We argue that each of these approaches presents a partial and incomplete picture, which has implications for the quality and usefulness of the insights they can deliver for policy and practice. A framework for bridging these different approaches promises to enrich each of the approaches, while providing the basis for a more robust and complete analysis of sustainable transitions pathways that serves better to address questions and dilemmas faced by decision-makers and practitioners. We elaborate five key challenges for the analysis and governance of transitions pathways, and compare the three approaches in relation to each of these. We suggest an integration strategy based on alignment, bridging, and iteration, arguing that a structured dialogue between practitioners of different approaches is needed. In practical terms, such a dialogue would be organised around three areas of joint knowledge production: defining common analytical or governance problems to be tackled through integration; establishing shared concepts (boundary objects); and establishing operational bridging devices (data and metrics, pathways evaluation and their delivery). Such processes could include experts and societal partners. We draw conclusions about future research perspectives and the role of analysis in transitions governance. 相似文献
5.
Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):295-302
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits its parties to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Authors of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, b) offered some insight into what negotiators might consider dangerous by highlighting five “reasons for concern” (RFC’s) and tracking concern against changes in global mean temperature; they illustrated their assessments in the now iconic “burning embers” diagram. The Fourth Assessment Report reaffirmed the value of plotting RFC’s against temperature change (IPCC 2007a, b), and Smith et al. (2009) produced an unpated embers visualization for the globe. This paper applies the same assessment and communication strategies to calibrate the comparable RFC’s for the United States. It adds “National Security Concern” as a sixth RFC because many now see changes in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme events around the world as “risk enhancers” that deserve attention at the highest levels of the US policy and research communities. The US embers portrayed here suggest that: (1) US policy-makers will not discover anything really “dangerous” over the near to medium term if they consider only economic impacts that are aggregated across the entire country but that (2) they could easily uncover “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” by focusing their attention on changes in the intensities, frequencies, and regional distributions of extreme weather events driven by climate change. 相似文献
6.
Research on the governance of social-ecological systems often emphasizes the need for self-organized, flexible and adaptive arrangements to deal with uncertainty, abrupt change and surprises that are characteristic of social-ecological systems. However, adaptive governance as well as transitions toward alternative forms of governance are embedded in politics and it is often the political processes that determine change and stability in governance systems and policy. This paper analyses five established theoretical frameworks of the policy process originating in political science and public policy research with respect to their potential to enhance understanding of governance and complex policy dynamics in social-ecological systems. The frameworks are found to be divergent in their conceptualization of policy change (focusing on incremental or large-scale, major changes), highlighting different aspects of bounded rationality in their model of individual behavior and focusing their attention on different aspects of the policy process (role of information, attention, beliefs, institutional structure, particular actors, etc.). We discuss the application of these frameworks and their potential contribution to unravelling the political dimension in adaptive governance and transformations. 相似文献
7.
春季黑潮延伸体海洋锋区经向位移与东亚大气环流的关系 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
采用高分辨率的海表温度资料定义了春季黑潮延伸体北侧海洋锋区的南北位置,并采用EOF分析、相关分析、合成分析、带通滤波等方法,探讨了其南北向位置变动与高空急流、风暴轴以及后期东亚降水之间的关系。结果表明,春季黑潮延伸体北侧海洋锋区位置的南北变动存在明显的年际、年代际变化,其与6月东亚高空急流、太平洋区域风暴轴的南北位置具有很好的对应关系。当春季黑潮延伸体海洋锋区偏北时,6月东亚高空急流、太平洋区域风暴轴偏北,反之亦然。进一步的研究还表明,春季黑潮延伸体海洋锋区经向位置的变动可通过影响东亚大气环流对6月东亚地区的降水产生影响,黑潮延伸体海洋锋区偏北(南)年,6月雨带有显著的北(南)移。 相似文献
8.
Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. Therefore, it is important to regularly reassess the relevance of emissions scenarios in light of changing global circumstances and compare them with long-term developments to determine if they are still plausible, considering the newest insights. Four scenario series, SA90, IS92, SRES, and RCP/SSP, were central in the scenario-based literature informing the five Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the sixth assessment cycle. Here we analyze the historical trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry and emissions drivers between 1960 and 2017. We then compare the emission scenario series with historical trends for the period 1990–2017/2018. The results show that historical trends are quite consistent with medium scenarios in each series. As a result, they can be regarded as valid inputs for past and future analyses of climate change and impacts. Global CO2 emissions 1960–2018 (and 1990–2018) comprised six (and three) overall subperiods of emissions growth significantly higher and lower than average. Historically, CO2 emissions (in absolute numbers and growth rate) are tightly coupled with primary energy and indirectly with GDP. Global emissions generally followed a medium-high pathway, captured by “middle-of-the-road” scenario narratives in the earlier series, and by combinations of “global-sustainability” and “middle-of-the-road” narratives in the most recent series (SRES and SSP-baselines). Historical non-OECD trends were best captured by “rapid-growth” and “regional-competition” scenarios, while OECD trends were close to regional-sustainability and global-sustainability scenarios. Areas where the emissions scenarios captured the historical trends less well, are renewable and nuclear primary energy supply. The fact that the actual historical development is consistent with rapid-growth narratives in the non-OECD regions might have important implications for future greenhouse gas emissions and associated climatic change. 相似文献
9.
Julie Rozenberg Céline Guivarch Robert Lempert Stéphane Hallegatte 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):509-522
The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backwards” approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios using statistical cluster-finding algorithms. This backwards approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs. In this illustrative analysis, we find that energy sobriety, equity and convergence prove most important towards explaining future difference in challenges to adaptation and mitigation. The results also demonstrate the difficulty in finding explanatory drivers for a middle scenario (SSP2). We argue that methodologies such as that used here are useful for broad questions such as the definition of SSPs, and could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers in the field of climate change. 相似文献
10.
Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city – the City of New York – have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a “tipping point” leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists. 相似文献
11.
Critical to improving environmental governance is understanding the fit (alignment) between institutional arrangements and key ecological processes. This is particularly true for biodiversity hotpots and ecologically sensitive areas that are subject to significant impacts from human activities. Here, we have developed an innovative approach to quantify ecological-institutional alignment across an environmentally and politically complex large-scale marine social-ecological system. We mapped the trans-boundary networks of marine population dispersal corridors, and intersected these with estimates of cross-country institutional linkages related to marine management and conservation. In integrating large-scale ecological-institutional networks, we identify geopolitical fit and misfit between a region's ecological processes and its governance. We have demonstrated this approach in the Indo-West Pacific region, a global marine biodiversity hotpot in the Indo-West Pacific. We present region-specific institutional and ecological networks, highlight current challenges, and suggest future directions to refine the proposed approach to quantify alignment between ecological processes and governance arrangements. Ultimately, our method has the potential to assist management efforts in prioritizing and strengthening governance to effectively safeguard ecological processes across multiple jurisdictions. 相似文献
12.
Large wildfire events (e.g. >100 square km) highlight the importance of governance systems that address wildfire risk at landscape scales and among multiple land owners and institutions. A growing body of empirical work demonstrates that environmental governance outcomes depend upon how well patterns of interaction among actors align with patterns of ecological connectivity, such as wildfire transmission. However, the factors that facilitate or inhibit this alignment remain poorly understood. It is crucial to improve understanding of the conditions under which actors establish or maintain linkages with other actors with whom they are interdependent because of ecological linkages. To this end, we introduce the concept of “risk interdependence archetypes” based on the spatial configurations by which one actor (i.e. a particular organization) is exposed to risk via the actions of another actor. We then develop a set of hypotheses to explore how different sets of conditions associated with each spatial configurations of risk interdependence may shape the likelihood that an actor coordinates with another actor in ways that promote social-ecological alignment. We test these hypotheses using network analysis of a wildfire transmission network developed through simulation of wildfires over several thousand fire seasons and a governance network created from interviews with 154 representatives of 87 organizations involved in efforts to mitigate wildfire risk in the Eastern Cascades Ecoregion, USA. Results indicate that social-ecological alignment is more likely when actors have opportunities to influence forest management practices on ignition-prone lands that they do not manage themselves, and when actors bear greater responsibility for averting losses from wildfires that spread to lands they manage independently. Importantly, not all forms of risk interdependence increase the likelihood of alignment, implying that organizations have limited capacity for interaction and may prioritize certain risk mitigation partnerships over others. While the performance of risk governance systems may hinge on the alignment of social and ecological networks, our results suggest that alignment in turn may depend on actor-level strategies for interaction with other actors. 相似文献
13.
14.
The oceanic bottom boundary-layer model of Weatherly and Martin (1978) is used to study the vertical structure of the eddy diffusivity in a region with initially imposed bottom mixed-layer thickness. Because of near-bottom oceanic features, such as the Cold Filament (Weatherly and Kelley, 1982) and cold eddies (Ebbesmeyer et al., 1988), the bottom mixed-layer thickness is not the sole result of boundary-layer mixing; this is the incentive for this study. For a given geostrophic forcing and imposed mixed-layer depth, a formula for the eddy diffusion coefficient is found. This parameterization of the eddy diffusivity improves previous formulas used in oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers in the upper portion of the boundary layer. A simple model of a Cold Filament-like feature demonstrates the structure of the bottom boundary layer, the bottom mixed layer, and the relation between the two. A lens-like cross section of cold blobs, often used in analytical models, may be inappropriate if bottom friction is important. 相似文献
15.
Insights from experimental economics on local cooperation in a small-scale fishery management system
Shankar Aswani Georgina G. Gurney Sara Mulville Jaime Matera Michael Gurven 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1402-1409
Cooperation is central to collective management of small-scale fisheries management, including marine protected areas. Thus an understanding of the factors influencing stakeholders’ propensity to cooperate to achieve shared benefits is essential to accomplishing successful collective fisheries management. In this paper we study stakeholders’ cooperative behavioral disposition and elucidate the role of various socio-economic factors in influencing it in the Roviana Lagoon, Western Solomon Islands. We employed a Public Goods Game from experimental economics tailored to mimic the problem of common pool fisheries management to elucidate peoples’ cooperative behavior. Using Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems to guide our analysis, we examined how individual-scale variables (e.g., age, education, family size, ethnicity, occupational status, personal norms), in the context of village-scale variables (e.g., village, governance institutions, group coercive action), influence cooperative behavior, as indexed by game contribution. Ostrom's framework provides an effective window for conceptually peeling back the various socio-economic and governance layers which influence cooperation within these communities. The results of our research show that the most important resource user characteristics influencing cooperative behavior were age, occupation and beliefs about giving access to others to fish for commercial gain. Through elucidating the factors affecting stakeholders’ propensity to cooperate to achieve shared benefits, our analysis provides guidance in understanding cooperation in relation to collective management of marine resources. 相似文献
16.
需求侧减排是协同实现碳中和目标与民生福祉、社会公平改善的重要抓手,也是以“人”为中心连接不同可持续发展目标的关键纽带。IPCC第六次评估报告首次独立成章（第五章）介绍应对气候变化的需求侧解决方案。报告将需求侧减排与福祉、公平等目标关联起来,依循“避免-转变-改进（ASI）”的战略框架,梳理了需求侧的减排措施和减排潜力;揭示了社会文化、心理活动、技术水平和基础设施等因素对需求侧减排的关键驱动作用,指出多种驱动因素之间相互依赖,呈现叠加效应;明确了激发需求侧减排的动力和能力需要科学的行为干预和政策设计以推动系统性变革。文中对该章主要结论做扼要解读,同时就该章节对中国的相关研究和政策启示展开讨论。 相似文献
17.
CMIP6情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP）概况与评述 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
情景模式比较计划（ScenarioMIP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）最重要的子计划之一。该子计划基于不同共享社会经济路径可能发生的能源结构所产生的人为排放及土地利用变化,设计了一系列新的情景预估试验,为未来气候变化机理研究以及气候变化减缓和适应研究提供关键的数据支持。文中将重点介绍ScenarioMIP的试验设计及模式参与情况,并对其应用前景加以讨论和展望。 相似文献
18.
共享社会经济路径下中国及分省经济变化预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于中国历次人口和经济普查及逐年统计年鉴,率定柯布道格拉斯（Cobb-Douglas）经济预测模型的参数,依据共享社会经济路径（SSPs）框架情景,构建2020—2100年中国31个省（区、市）经济变化格点（0.5°×0.5°）数据库。未来中国经济呈现如下特点：(1)沿可持续路径（SSP1）和不均衡路径（SSP4),GDP将呈现先增后降趋势,峰值出现在2070—2080年;沿中间路径（SSP2）和化石燃料为主的发展路径（SSP5),GDP则呈现持续增长趋势;区域竞争路径（SSP3）下,2050年以后GDP增长处于停滞状态。(2)无论采用何种路径,2020年前GDP仍旧保持6.0%左右的增速,随后增速均低于5.0%并出现放缓或停滞,甚至负增长态势。(3)社会经济发展政策对中国分省经济增长产生直接影响。2020年代SSP1~SSP5路径下江苏、广东和山东省GDP总量位列前三;2090年代,SSP1和SSP5路径下广东、山东和江苏省GDP总量依旧位列前三;SSP2路径下,浙江位列第二;SSP3路径下,河南跻身前三;SSP4路径下,排名前三省份为广东、江苏和浙江省。(4) 2020年代SSP1、SSP2和SSP5路径下,山东、浙江等省GDP增速超过6.0%,SSP3和SSP4路径下仅广东和浙江省GDP增速可维持5.0%左右,个别省还出现负增长;2090年代各省GDP增速均降至不足1.0%。 相似文献
19.
Young stakeholders are key actors in social-ecological systems, who have the capacity to be agents of sustainability transformation but are also at high risk of exclusion in the unfolding of global change challenges. Despite the focus of sustainability on future generations, there has been little research effort aimed at understanding young actors’ roles as biosphere stewards. In this work we investigate how young stakeholders perceive and participate in the implementation of sustainability objectives in 74 Biosphere Reserves of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme across 83 countries, through participatory group workshops, individual surveys and grey literature review. We explore to what extent youth perceptions are aligned or not with current understandings of Biosphere Reserves and how young stakeholders are acting in pursuit of Biosphere Reserve objectives. We find that young stakeholders have a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and challenges faced by environmental governance, such as resilience and adaptation to global change and the governance challenges of implementing adaptive co-management and increasing stakeholder participation. We also show that young stakeholders can be active participants in a wide range of activities that contribute to achieving conservation and development goals in their territories. They are particularly concerned with youth participation within all levels of Biosphere Reserve functioning and with the creation of sustainable livelihood opportunities that will allow future generations to remain in their native territories. Our study provides evidence of the importance of young stakeholder knowledge and perspectives as central actors in conservation and development initiatives, like Biosphere Reserves, and of the need to increase young stakeholder integration and participation within environmental governance. 相似文献
20.
Fergus Green 《Climatic change》2018,150(1-2):103-116
Historically, climate governance initiatives and associated scholarship have all but ignored the potential for “global moral norms” to bring about changes in the political conditions for global climate mitigation. This is surprising, since global moral norms are widely employed—as both a mode of governance and an analytical framework—in other domains of global governance, from international security to human rights. However, recent national-level fossil fuel divestments, moratoria on new coal mines and bans on gas fracking, among other developments, suggest the promise of global moral norms prohibiting fossil fuel-related activities, which this article terms “anti-fossil fuel norms” (AFFNs). The article interprets recent examples of such activities in the light of international relations theory on moral norms to provide a general framework for understanding how AFFNs originate, spread and affect states. Specifically, the article argues that there are: (i) influential agents that are originating, and likely to continue to originate, AFFNs; and (ii) international and domestic mechanisms by which AFFNs are likely to spread widely among states and have a significant causal effect on the identity-related considerations or rational calculations of states in the direction of limiting or reducing the production or consumption of fossil fuels. The article also shows that, because they spread and affect state behaviour through mechanisms of “international socialization” and domestic “political mobilization”, AFFNs cohere with and build upon the new paradigm of global climate governance crystallized in the Paris Agreement. AFFNs, the article concludes, represent a promising new frontier in climate governance. 相似文献