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1.
利用最大熵谱法研究了风云二号D星≥2.0 MeV的高能电子通量的周期特性,算法以自相关模型为基础,通过对最大熵谱功率谱的分析,推测出风云二号D星高能电子通量存在13.87 d和27.8 d的周期。根据最终预报误差准则(Final Prediction Error, FPE)和赤池信息量准则(Akaike Information Criterion, AIC)确定最佳阶数,进而计算自相关模型参数,并将Levinson-Durbin和Burg算法与最大熵谱法进行比较,发现最大熵谱法在周期特性研究上存在优势。这一结果对研究地球同步轨道高能电子空间分布、预报高能电子增强事件和预警深层充电事件至关重要。  相似文献   

2.
对一个太阳风暴及其行星际和地磁效应的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
邱柏翰  李川 《天文学报》2015,56(1):44-52
对一个爆发于2014年1月7日的太阳风暴进行了研究,通过对太阳活动的多波段遥感观测—来自于太阳动力学天文台(Solar Dynamics Observatory,SDO)以及太阳和日球天文台(Solar and Heliospheric Observatory,SOHO),分析了耀斑和日冕物质抛射(coronal mass ejection,CME)的爆发过程.通过地球同步轨道环境业务卫星(Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites,GOES)对高能质子以及日地L1点的元素高级成分探测器(Advanced Composition Explorer,ACE)对当地等离子体环境的就位观测,分析了伴随太阳风暴的太阳高能粒子(solar energetic particle,SEP)事件和行星际CME(ICME)及其驱动的激波.通过地面磁场数据分析了该太阳风暴对地磁场的影响.研究结果表明:(1)耀斑脉冲相的开始时刻和CME在日面上的抛射在时序上一致.(2)高能质子主要源于CME驱动的激波加速,并非源于耀斑磁重联过程.质子的释放发生在CME传播到7.7个太阳半径的高度的时刻.(3)穿过近地空间的行星际激波鞘层的厚度和ICME本身的厚度分别为0.22 au和0.26 au.(4)行星际激波和ICME引起了多次地磁亚暴和极光,但没有产生明显的地磁暴.原因在于ICME没有包含一个规则的磁云结构或明显的南向磁场分量.  相似文献   

3.
本文分析1986年2月4日3B/X3.0大耀斑及2月6日3B/X1.7大耀斑事件的日地总体效应。2月4日耀斑是第21周第169次X级x射线耀斑,第15个X3级耀斑,引起的质子事件是第21周第57个,>10MeV积分流量为130粒子/厘米~2.秒.球面度,粒子流产生的磁暴是19周1960年11月13日磁暴(Ap=280)以来最大的一个(Ap=202),也是1932年以来第9个大磁暴。 本文从太阳活动区演化、光学耀斑、X射线耀斑、黑子面积、X射线流量变化、太阳质子、电子、α粒子能谱、卫星高空地磁场记录、中子堆吸收、太阳风、宇宙线及地磁、电离层资料等参数,用计算机和数字化仪将这些参量画在同一时间尺度坐标上,得到太阳耀斑的光辐射和粒子辐射效应及其瞬时和滞后效应的时间序列,并作分析研究。 选择高纬南极中国长城站地磁台,低纬Honolulu台,中纬Kakioka台,北京台,Bonlder台和接近北极的Barrow台等6个地磁台磁暴急始及磁暴期间的地磁场D.H.Z.各分量形态和幅度进行分析比较。并对地磁A_p、D_(st)指数作了分析。 进一步对大事件磁暴空间环境引起的卫星异常如卫星充放电异常ESD发生在1986年2月8日、12日、以及SEU卫星异常发生在2月5日的资料作了分析。 同时,北大西洋高频无线电传播在磁暴主相后严重衰减,美国电力公司报导电压下降3％的短期效应,高频接收减低,另  相似文献   

4.
太阳和地磁活动中的1.3–1.7 yr周期研究对于理解日地空间耦合系统中可能发生的物理过程十分重要.黑子是太阳光球层上最突出的磁场结构, Ap指数则是表征全球地磁活动水平的重要指标.使用同步压缩小波变换得到太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7yr周期,并用互相关方法分析研究它们之间的相位关系.结果如下:(1)太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7 yr周期呈现间歇性的演化特征,且随着时间的变化而不断变化;(2)地磁Ap指数在奇数活动周比相邻的偶数活动周的周期分量更高,表现出上下波动的变化特性;(3)地磁Ap指数和太阳黑子数的相位关系不是一成不变的,在大多数情况下地磁Ap指数滞后太阳黑子数,仅在第18和第22活动周黑子数在相位上滞后.  相似文献   

5.
F10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...  相似文献   

6.
本文首先分析了冕洞与中纬(北京)和赤道(Dst)地磁暴之间的关联。结果确认,所谓M区只是赤道面积较大的一类冕洞;就本文分析的两个冕洞而言,地磁暴开始时刻相对冕洞过中径的时延同冕洞赤道面积呈反变关系。其次考察了冕洞存在时,146MHz扇束干涉仪的中天观测特征。一般地说,随着冕洞伴同太阳转动,观测记录显示一规律性变化,反映了冕洞中辐射流量减弱;中央条流量的迭加周期分析结果,进一步证实了冕洞的这种效应。最后探讨了用米波射电和黑子的观测资料证认冕洞过中径的可能性,并尝试用重现型地磁暴资料估算太阳风高速流的速率和冕洞的平均面积。  相似文献   

7.
Neupert效应的定性描述是耀斑中脉冲分量(硬X射线、微波暴)与渐变分量(软X射线发射)之间存在的因果关系,即耀斑最初的能量是以加速粒子的形式释放,加速的电子在大气传输过程中产生非热硬X射线轫致辐射,并加热大气,耀斑软X射线发射是高能粒子注入大气的响应.根据经典Neupert效应的定量描述,硬X射线发射(表征非热电子注入)结束时软X射线应该立刻达到极大,但以往的观测发现一些耀斑软X射线峰值时间(t2)明显晚于硬X射线结束时间(t1)(τ=t2–t1,τ 0),热与非热辐射之间存在明显的偏离经典Neupert效应的情况.为了研究偏离经典Neupert效应的事件,在2002—2015年间的RHESSI (Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager)和GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites)耀斑列表中,按照在25–50 keV范围内光变较简单、软X射线有对应发射峰等判据,共选择276个耀斑样本,统计了这些耀斑的τ分布、环长d (用双足点源之间的距离来表征)与τ的关系.结果显示:(1)有227个耀斑τ 0,即有约82%的耀斑偏离经典Neupert效应;(2)τ与d之间存在一定的线性相关,即环越长,软X射线极大的时间越延后;(3)似乎存在一个临界距离,当环长小于临界距离时,经典Neupert效应成立.这些结果印证了修正Neupert效应的必要性,并对其物理意义进行了讨论.  相似文献   

8.
TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite)空间卫星提供的短曝光、高精度光度测量为寻找并区分变星与搜寻行星提供了良好的数据.利用变星源的光变曲线,使用周期频谱分析与光变折叠等一系列方法分析了TESS空间卫星21扇区19995颗拥有高质量光变数据的目标源,并对这些源进行了分类,共获得4624颗变星,其中食双星322颗、脉动变星470颗、行星凌星37颗.所得变星结果与VSX (The International Variable Star Index)变星表进行了交叉比较,共交叉匹配了625颗变星源,这些交叉源中共有131颗为食双星系统、31颗为脉动变星,并通过周期频谱分析获取了双星绕转以及脉动周期.另外在59颗变星中发现明显耀发现象,交叉源中有8颗变星为行星凌星并同样通过周期频谱分析获取了行星绕转周期,从而验证了TESS空间卫星数据对变星分析的可行性.通过利用TESS空间卫星21扇区获得的变星周期结果与VSX变星表中提供的变星周期对比,发现与VSX变星表中绝大部分变星的周期一致,有一部分结果与VSX变星表中的结果差别较大,对这些变星周期结果做了进一步修正,并给出了变星表未列出的变星周期结果.  相似文献   

9.
太阳活动周期的小波分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
运用小波技术对太阳射电流量2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数周期进行分析．其结果表明: (1)这3个系列的数据显示最显著的周期是10．69年,其他周期并不明显．(2)小波功率谱给出了全部时间-周期范围的功率谱变化,它显示了在某个周期处于某个时段的局部功率的变化,小波功率谱分析表明,小于1年的周期仅仅在太阳活动最大期附近比较明显．(3)太阳射电2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数的几个周期(10．69年,5．11年, 155．5天)的小波功率谱比较相似,出现峰值的时间相同;曲线的起伏相似,周期越小,曲线起伏的频率越大．  相似文献   

10.
依据卫星和地面的观测数据,分析了峰值流量达到或超过10 000 pfu(1 pfu=1proton.cm~2.s~(-1).sr~(-1))的超强太阳质子事件相伴的太阳耀斑、曰冕物质抛射(CME)驱动激波的曰地传播速度、源区的曰面经度、卡林顿经度以及相伴的磁暴等现象.研究表明,超强太阳质子事件源区的曰面经度范围为E30°Longitude≤W75°.超强太阳质子事件源区分布在2个卡林顿经度带,分别为130°~220°的区域和260°~320°的区域.超强太阳质子事件都伴随着强烈的太阳耀斑和快速CME,CME驱动的激波从太阳到地球的平均速度超过1200 km/s.除一个超强太阳质子事件相伴的磁暴略低于强磁暴外,其余8个都伴有Dst≤-100 nT的强烈磁暴.  相似文献   

11.
The Dst (Disturbance storm time) index is a measurement of earth geomagnetic activity and is widely used to characterize the geomagnetic storm. It is calculated on the basis of the average value of the horizontal component of the earth’s magnetic field at four observatories, namely, Hermanus (33.3° south, 80.3° in magnetic dipole latitude and longitude), Kakioka (26.0° north, 206.0°), Honolulu (21.0° north, 266.4°), and San Juan (29.9° north, 3.2°) and is expressed in nano-Teslas. The strength of the low-latitude surface magnetic field is inversely proportional to the energy content of the ring current around earth caused by solar protons and electrons, which increases during geomagnetic storms. Thus a negative Dst index value indicates that the earth’s magnetic field is weakened which is specifically the case during solar storms. Predicting Dst index is a difficult task due to its structural complexity involving a variety of underlying plasma mechanism. For characterizing and forecasting this complex time series, a formal model must be established to identify the specific pattern of the series. Persistent demand for a fool proof model of Geomagnetic Dst index prompted us to investigate the Dst Time Series mechanism with a very recent technique called Visibility Algorithm and it is observed that the Dst time series follows the same model that of a Stochastic Fractional Brownian motion having long range correlation.  相似文献   

12.
The study on the 1.3–1.7 yr period of the solar and geomagnetic activities is very important for understanding the possible physical processes in the solar-terrestrial coupling system. The sunspot is the most prominent magnetic field structure in the solar photosphere, and the Ap index is an important indicator for the global geomagnetic activity level. The 1.3–1.7 yr period for the sunspot number and the geomagnetic Ap index is obtained by the synchro-squeezing wavelet transform, and the phase relationship between them is studied by the cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The 1.3–1.7 yr period of the geomagnetic Ap index and sunspot number exhibits an intermittent evolutionary characteristics, and changes continuously with the time; (2) the geomagnetic Ap index has a higher periodic component in the odd solar cycles than the neighboring even solar cycles, which is characterized by fluctuations; (3) the phase relationship between the geomagnetic Ap index and the sunspot number is not always invariant, in most cases the geomagnetic Ap index lags behind the sunspot number, except in the 18th and 22th solar cycles.  相似文献   

13.
A new ULF wave index, characterizing the turbulent level of the geomagnetic field, has been calculated and applied to the analysis of relativistic electron enhancements during space weather events in March–May 1994 and September 1999. This global wave index has been produced from the INTERMAGNET, MACCS, CPMN, and Greenland dense magnetometer arrays in the northern hemisphere. A similar ULF wave index has been calculated using magnetometer data from geostationary (GOES) and interplanetary (Wind, ACE) satellites. During the periods analyzed several magnetic storms occurred, and several significant increases of relativistic electron flux up to 2–3 orders of magnitude were detected by geostationary monitors. However, these electron enhancements were not directly related to the intensity of magnetic storms. Instead, they correlated well with intervals of elevated ULF wave index, caused by the occurrence of intense Pc5 pulsations in the magnetosphere. This comparison confirmed earlier results showing the importance of magnetospheric ULF turbulence in energizing relativistic electrons. In addition to relativistic electron energization, a wide range of space physics and geophysics studies will benefit from the introduction of the ULF wave index. The ULF index database is freely available via anonymous FTP for all interested researchers for further validation and statistical studies.  相似文献   

14.
The solar flares, the speeds of shocks propagated in the solar-terrestrial space and driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the heliographic longitudes and Carrington longitudes of source regions, and the geomagnetic storms, which are accompanied by the super solar proton events with a peak ?ux equal to or exceeding 10 000 pfu, have been studied by using the data of ground-based and space observations. The results show that the heliographic longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the range from E30? to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitudinal belts, 130°∼220° and 260°∼320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1 200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−100 nT), except that one super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with the geomagnetic activity index Dst=−96 nT, a little smaller than that of major geomagnetic storms.  相似文献   

15.
We studied the occurrence and characteristics of geomagnetic storms associated with disk-centre full-halo coronal mass ejections (DC-FH-CMEs). Such coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be considered as the most plausible cause of geomagnetic storms. We selected front-side full-halo coronal mass ejections detected by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO/LASCO) from the beginning of 1996 till the end of 2015 with source locations between solar longitudes E10 and W10 and latitudes N20 and S20. The number of selected CMEs was 66 of which 33 (50%) were deduced to be the cause of 30 geomagnetic storms with \(\mathrm{Dst} \leq- 50~\mbox{nT}\). Of the 30 geomagnetic storms, 26 were associated with single disk-centre full-halo CMEs, while four storms were associated, in addition to at least one disk-centre full-halo CME, also with other halo or wide CMEs from the same active region. Thirteen of the 66 CMEs (20%) were associated with 13 storms with \(-100~\mbox{nT} < \mbox{Dst} \leq- 50~\mbox{nT}\), and 20 (30%) were associated with 17 storms with \(\mbox{Dst}\leq- 100~\mbox{nT}\). We investigated the distributions and average values of parameters describing the DC-FH-CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts encountering Earth. These parameters included the CME sky-plane speed and direction parameter, associated solar soft X-ray flux, interplanetary magnetic field strength, \(B_{t}\), southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, \(B_{s}\), solar wind speed, \(V_{sw}\), and the \(y\)-component of the solar wind electric field, \(E_{y}\). We found only a weak correlation between the Dst of the geomagnetic storms associated with DC-FH-CMEs and the CME sky-plane speed and the CME direction parameter, while the correlation was strong between the Dst and all the solar wind parameters (\(B_{t}\), \(B_{s}\), \(V_{sw}\), \(E_{y}\)) measured at 1 AU. We investigated the dependences of the properties of DC-FH-CMEs and the associated geomagnetic storms on different phases of solar cycles and the differences between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. In the rise phase of Solar Cycle 23 (SC23), five out of eight DC-FH-CMEs were geoeffective (\(\mbox{Dst} \leq- 50~\mbox{nT}\)). In the corresponding phase of SC24, only four DC-FH-CMEs were observed, three of which were nongeoeffective (\(\mbox{Dst} > - 50~\mbox{nT}\)). The largest number of DC-FH-CMEs occurred at the maximum phases of the cycles (21 and 17, respectively). Most of the storms with \(\mbox{Dst}\leq- 100~\mbox{nT}\) occurred at or close to the maximum phases of the cycles. When comparing the storms during epochs of corresponding lengths in Solar Cycles 23 and 24, we found that during the first 85 months of Cycle 23 the geoeffectiveness rate of the disk-centre full-halo CMEs was 58% with an average minimum value of the Dst index of \(- 146~\mbox{nT}\). During the corresponding epoch of Cycle 24, only 35% of the disk-centre full-halo CMEs were geoeffective with an average value of Dst of \(- 97~\mbox{nT}\).  相似文献   

16.
The problem of the ionospheric disturbances associated with geomagnetic storms is examined with the goal of searching for a relationship between the time-developments of the two phenomena. Faraday rotation measurements of total electron content (NT) are used to monitor the ionospheric F-region at a mid-latitude site, while a variety of geomagnetic parameters are examined as possible ways of following the geomagnetic variations. The ionospheric and geomagnetic data taken during 28 individual storms from 1967 to 1969 are used to search for a predictive scheme which can be tested using data from 17 storms in 1970. The specific aim is to find the geomagnetic parameter whose time-development can best forecast whether or not the ionospheric response will include an initial positive phase prior to the normally extended period of F-region depletions. Correlations between NT and the geomagnetic indices Kp, and equatorial Dst(H) prove to be wholly inadequate. The local times of main-phase-onset (MPO) determined from the equatorial Dst(H) indices as well as from local horizontal component data, also prove to be unsatisfactory. The best correlations are obtained using local measurements of the total geomagnetic field (F). These results show that a storm commencement (SC) will produce an enhancement in nt during the afternoon period following the SC unless there is an intervening post-midnight period with a strong depression of the geomagnetic field. Operationally this is taken to be a depression in F of at least 100γ near 03:00 LT  相似文献   

17.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the association of geomagnetic storms with the component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) perpendicular to the ecliptic (\(Bz\)), the solar wind speed (\(V\)), the product of solar wind speed and \(Bz\) (VBz), the Kp index, and the sunspot number (SSN) for two consecutive even solar cycles, Solar Cycles 22 (1986?–?1995) and 24 (2009?–?2017). A comparative study has been done using the superposed epoch method (Chree analysis). The results of the present analysis show that \(Bz\) is a geoeffective parameter. The correlation coefficient between Dst and \(Bz\) is found to be 0.8 for both Solar Cycles 22 and 24, which indicates that these two parameters are highly correlated. Statistical relationships between Dst and Kp are established and it is shown that for the two consecutive even solar cycles, Solar Cycles 22 and 24, the patterns are strikingly similar. The correlation coefficient between Dst and Kp is found to be the same for the two solar cycles (?0.8), which clearly indicates that these parameters are well anti-correlated. For the same studied period we found that the SSN does not show any relationship with Dst and Kp, while there exists an inverse relation between Dst and the solar wind speed, with some time lag. We have also found that VBz is a more relevant parameter for the production of geomagnetic storms, as compared to \(V\) and \(Bz\) separately. In addition, we have found that in Solar Cycles 22 and 24 this combined parameter is more relevant during the descending phase as compared to the ascending phase.  相似文献   

18.
We compared the variability of coronal hole (CH) areas (determined from daily GOES/SXI images) with solar wind (daily ACE data) and geomagnetic parameters for the time span 25 January 2005 until 11 September 2005 (late declining phase of solar cycle 23). Applying wavelet spectral analysis, a clear 9-day period is found in the CH time series. The GOES/SXI image sequence suggests that this periodic variation is caused by a mutual triangular distribution of CHs ∼120° apart in longitude. From solar wind parameters a 9-day periodicity was obtained as well, simultaneously with the 9-day period in the CH area time series. These findings provide strong evidence that the 9-day period in solar wind parameters, showing up as higher harmonic of the solar rotation frequency, is caused by the “periodic” longitudinal distribution of CHs on the Sun recurring for several solar rotations. The shape of the wavelet spectrum from the Dst index matches only weakly with that from the CH areas and is more similar to the wavelet spectrum of the solar wind magnetic field magnitude. The distinct 9-day period does not show up in sunspot group areas which gives further evidence that the solar wind modulation is strongly related to CH areas but not to active region complexes. The wavelet power spectra for the whole ACE data range (∼1998 – 2006) suggest that the 9-day period is not a singular phenomenon occurring only during a specific time range close to solar minimum but is occasionally also present during the maximum and decay phase of solar cycle 23. The main periods correspond to the solar rotation (27d) as well as to the second (13.5d) and third (9d) harmonic. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

19.
We report simultaneous observations of intense fluxes of quasi-trapped energetic electrons and substantial enhancements of ionospheric electron concentration (EC) at low and middle latitudes over the Pacific region during the geomagnetic storm on 15 December 2006. Electrons with energy of tens of keV were measured at altitude of ～800–900 km by POES and DMSP satellites. Experimental data from COSMIC/FS3 satellites and global network of ground-based GPS receivers were used to determine height profiles of EC and vertical total EC, respectively. A good spatial and temporal correlation between the electron fluxes and EC enhancements was found. This fact allows us to suggest that the quasi-trapped energetic electrons can be an important source of ionospheric ionization at middle latitudes during magnetic storms.  相似文献   

20.
Solar cycle distribution of great geomagnetic storms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−200 nT) and super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−300 nT) across the solar cycles (19–23) are investigated. The results show that 73.2% of the great geomagnetic storms took place in the descending phase of the solar cycles. 72.7% of super geomagnetic storms occurred in the descending phase of the solar cycles. About 83% of the great geomagnetic storms appeared during the period from the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak time. 90.9% of the super geomagnetic storms appeared between the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak. When a solar cycle is very strong, the phenomenon that great geomagnetic storms concentrated during the period from the two years before the solar cycle peak time to the three years after the solar cycle peak time is very prominent. The launch time of space science satellite is suggested according to the distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms and super geomagnetic storms in solar cycles.  相似文献   

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