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1.
The 10.7cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term (months-years) and short-term (days) forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network. 相似文献
2.
Juan Zhao Yan-Ben Han 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2008,8(4)
We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7) since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7. 相似文献
3.
Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force. 相似文献
4.
The correlation coefficients of the linear regression of six solar indices versus 10.7 cm radio flux F 10.7 were analysed in solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. We also analysed the interconnection between these indices and F 10.7 with help of approximation by polynomials of second order. The indices we have studied in this paper are: the relative sunspot numbers – SSN, 530.3 nm coronal line flux – F 530, the total solar irradiance – TSI, Mg II 280 nm core-to-wing ratio UV-index, the Flare Index – FI and the counts of flares. In most cases the regressions of these solar indices vs. F 10.7 are close to the linear regression except the moments of time near the minimums and maximums of the 11-year activity. For the linear regressions, we found that correlation coefficients K corr(t) for the solar indices vs. F 10.7 and SSN dropped to their minimum values twice during each 11-year cycle. 相似文献
5.
A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer. 相似文献
6.
Attempt to look into the nature of solar activity and variability have increased importance in recent days because of their terrestrial relationships. In the present work we have attempted to compare the solar activity events during first six years (2008–2013) of the ongoing solar cycle 24 with first six years (1996–2001) of solar cycle 23. To that end, we have considered sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar flux, halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms as comparison parameters. Sunspot number during the year 2008–2013 varied from 0 to 96.7 while during the year 1996 to 2001 it was observed from 0.9 to 170.1. Solar radio flux (F10.7 cm index) varied from 65 to 190 during the years 2008–2013 while it was observed from 65 to 283 during the years 1996–2001. 197 cases of halo CMEs (width=360°) in solar cycle 23 (1996–2001) and 177 cases of halo CMEs (width=360°) in solar cycle 24 (2008–2013) are investigated. 287 and 104 geomagnetic storm cases (Dst varies between ?50 and ?350 nT) are analysed during the half period of solar cycle 23 and 24 respectively. Comparative results indicate that solar cycle 23 was more pronounced in comparison of solar cycle 24. 相似文献
7.
The study of variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and spectral irradiance is important for understanding how the Sun affects the Earth’s climate. A data-driven approach is used in this article to analyze and model the temporal variation of the TSI and Mg?ii index back to 1947. In both cases, observed data in the time interval of the satellite era, 1978?–?2013, were used for neural network (NN) model-design and testing. For this particular purpose, the evolution of the solar magnetic field is assumed to be the main driver for the day-to-day irradiance variability. First, we design a model for the Mg?ii index data from F10.7 cm solar radio-flux using the NN approach in the time span of 1978 through 2013. Results of Mg?ii index model were tested using various numbers of hidden nodes. The predicted values of the hidden layer with five nodes correspond well to the composite Mg?ii values. The model reproduces 94% of the variability in the composite Mg?ii index, including the secular decline between the 1996 and 2008 solar cycle minima. Finally, the extrapolation of the Mg?ii index was performed using the developed model from F10.7 cm back to 1947. Similarly, the NN model was designed for TSI variability study over the time span of the satellite era using data from the Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) as a target, and solar activity indices as model inputs. This model was able to reproduce the daily irradiance variations with a correlation coefficient of 0.937 from sunspot and facular measurements in the time span of 1978?–?2013. Finally, the temporal variation of the TSI was analyzed using the designed NN model back to 1947 from the Photometric Sunspot Index (PSI) and the extrapolated Mg?ii index. The extrapolated TSI result indicates that the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 19 and 21 are closely comparable to each other, and Solar Cycle 20 appears to be of lower irradiance during its maximum. 相似文献
8.
Massimo Vellante Matthias Förster Michael Pezzopane Norbert Jakowski Tie Long Zhang Umberto Villante Marcello De Lauretis Bruno Zolesi Werner Magnes 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2009,104(1-4):25-27
Cross-spectral analysis of ULF wave measurements recorded at ground magnetometer stations closely spaced in latitude allows accurate determinations of magnetospheric field line resonance (FLR) frequencies. This is a useful tool for remote sensing temporal and spatial variations of the magnetospheric plasma mass density. The spatial configuration of the South European GeoMagnetic Array (SEGMA, 1.56 < L < 1.89) offers the possibility to perform such studies at low latitudes allowing to monitor the dynamical coupling between the ionosphere and the inner plasmasphere. As an example of this capability we present the results of a cross-correlation analysis between FLR frequencies and solar EUV irradiance (as monitored by the 10.7-cm solar radio flux F10.7) suggesting that changes in the inner plasmasphere density follow the short-term (27-day) variations of the solar irradiance with a time delay of 1–2 days. As an additional example we present the results of a comparative analysis of FLR measurements, ionospheric vertical soundings and vertical TEC measurements during the development of a geomagnetic storm. 相似文献
9.
Roy Soumya Prasad Amrita Panja Subhash Chandra Ghosh Koushik Patra Sankar Narayan 《Solar System Research》2019,53(3):224-232
The radio frequency emission at 10.7 cm (or 2800 MHz) wavelength (considered as solar flux density) out of different possible wavelengths is usually selected to identify periodicities because of its high correlation with solar extreme ultraviolet radiation as well as its complete and long observational record other than sunspot related indices. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wavelength plays a very valuable role for forecasting the space weather because it is originated from lower corona and chromospheres region of the Sun. Also, solar radio flux is a magnificent indicator of major solar activity. Here in the present work the solar radio flux data from 1965 to 2014 observed at the Domimion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbiahas been processed using Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) to identify predominant periods within the data along with their confidence levels. Also, the multi-taper method (MTM) for periodicity analysis is used to validate the observed periods. Present investigation exhibits multiperiodicity of the time series F10.7 solar radio flux data around 27, 57, 78, 127, 157, 4096 days etc. The observed periods are also compared with the periods of MgII Index data using same algorithm as MgII Index data has 99.9% correlation with F10.7 Solar Radio Flux data. It can be observed that the MgII index data exhibits similar periodicities with very high confidence levels.Present investigation also clearly indicates that the computed results are very much confining with the results obtained in different communication for the similar data of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux as well as for the other solar activities.
相似文献10.
The ratios of radio to optical diameter of the solar disc at 10.7 and 3 cm wavelengths are examined. The radio observations are daily east–west scans of the solar disc, made over the period 1975–1992, which includes almost two complete solar cycles. We find that the apparent disc diameter is slightly greater at solar minimum than it is at solar maximum, suggesting that the radio diameter varies over the cycle. Moreover, the ratio is smaller at 3 cm wavelength than it is at 10.7 cm, at both solar maximum and minimum. 相似文献
11.
EUV97 is a solar EUV empirical model that incorporates revised soft X-ray fluxes from the SOLRAD-11 satellite (1976–1979) and uses Lα recently recalibrated to the UARS satellite (1991–present) SOLSTICE Lα. The soft X-ray data have been revised from the original flux values using Mewe's spectral fits to the data. The recalibrated AE-E and SME Lα datasets use UARS Lα for absolute flux values to provide two solar cycles of Lα irradiance extending back to 1977. Lα is used by EUV97 as a proxy for chromospheric EUV irradiances. The EUV97 empirical solar model takes its heritage from the EUV91 model based on a multiple linear regression technique that fits soft X-ray and EUV irradiances to 10.7 cm flux for transition region and coronal emissions or to Lα and Hei 10830 Ú EW for chromospheric emissions. 相似文献
12.
Using the method of Morlet wavelet transform, we analysed the sunspot relative numbers and obtained some meaningful results. The solar activity possesses the periods of 10.7a and 101a, and the period of 10.7a is very prominent. The variation of intensity of the solar activity exhibits certain stages. In 1950 there occurred abrupt changes of climate, and since then the solar activity has become more and more intense. It is predicted that it would be weaker for some time interval in the future. 相似文献
13.
K. K. Mahajan Hari Om Upadhyay N. K. Sethi W. R. Hoegy W. D. Pesnell L. H. Brace 《Solar physics》1998,177(1-2):203-216
The Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) had on board the electron temperature probe experiment which measured temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere of Venus. When the probe was outside the Venus ionosphere and was in the solar wind, the probe current was entirely due to solar photons striking the probe surface. This probe thus measured integrated solar EUV flux (Ipe) over a 13-year period from January 1979 to December 1991, thereby covering the declining phase of solar cycle 21 and the rising phase of solar cycle 22. In this paper, we examine the behavior of Ipe translated to the solar longitude of Earth (to be called EIpe) during the two solar cycles. We find that total EUV flux changed by about 60% during solar cycle 21 and by about 100% in solar cycle 22. We also compare this flux with other solar activity indicators such as F_10.7 , Lα, and the solar magnetic field. We find that while the daily values of EIpe are highly correlated with F_10.7 (correlation coefficient 0.87), there is a large scatter in EIpe for any value of this Earth-based index. A comparison of EIpe with SME and UARS SOLSTICE Lα measurements taken during the same period shows that EIpe tracks Lα quite faithfully with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Similar comparison with the solar magnetic field (Bs) shows that EIpe correlates better with Bs than with F_10.7 . We also compare EIpe with total solar irradiance measured during the same period. 相似文献
14.
K. B. Ramesh 《Solar physics》1998,177(1-2):311-319
Lomnický tít data of 5303 Ú coronal green-line index (CI) are analysed for the years 1965–1994. The yearly quiet-Sun component (Q_ci) of CI estimated through the linear regression analysis of CI with sunspot numbers (SS) and CI with Ca plage index (CA) are found to vary with the 11-year solar activity cycle. Comparison of Q_ci with the quiet-Sun component of 10.7 cm flux (Q_10.7) revealed that the Q_ci contributes principally to the entire CI, while Q_10.7 assumes much smaller values compared to its yearly averages. The slowly varying component of 5303 Ú emission associated with sunspots and plages seems to be nearly absent in CI. This aspect is also confirmed through the multiple-linear regression analysis of CI with sunspots and plages. The delayed response of green corona to both sunspots and plages also revealed similar results. 相似文献
15.
F10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2... 相似文献
16.
The structure of time series of daily global indices of solar activity is investigated: the sunspot numbers for the time interval between the years 1854 and 1996, the Greenwich total sunspot area for 1874–1983, the radio-flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7) for 1964–1996, and the Stanford mean solar magnetic field for 1975–1996. The fractal dimensions are determined by two fractal and spectral methods. The identified three time-scale ranges, 2 days–2 months, 2 months–2 years, 2 years–8 and more years, with the fractal dimensions 1.4–1.6, 2, 1.2–1.6, respectively, show perhaps some fractal structure of time series of global indices. The first time-scale range may correspond to ordinary brownian noise and the second to flicker noise. The solar rotation influence of the value of the fractal dimensions at the time range close to the rotational period is studied. 相似文献
17.
With the increased number of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver, the LEO based GPS slant total electron content (STEC) data play a more important role in ionospheric research due to better global coverage. The accuracy of LEO TEC is hardly evaluated by comparison with the independent TEC measurement simultaneously. We propose an approach based on the simulated data to verify the accuracy of TEC determination. The simulated data (i.e., the pseudorange and carrier phase observations) was generated based on the consideration of the effect of the ionosphere, the so-called differential code bias (DCB) and observational noise. The errors of carrier phase to code leveling process and DCB estimation are analyzed quantitatively. Also, the effect of observational noise, solar activity and LEO orbit altitude on the accuracy of TEC determination will be discussed in detail. The accuracy of TEC determination is relative to solar activity and LEO orbit altitude, the higher LEO orbit and lower F10.7 index, the higher accuracy of TEC determination. It is found by the first time that, with the amplification of the pseudorange noise, the accuracy of leveling process and TEC determination declines almost linearly. With the LEO missions in the near future, it is hoped that the GPS satellite DCBs estimated based on LEO observations would be better than those based on ground-based observations. 相似文献
18.
We propose that when all sources on the solar disc are taken into account, the S component at 10.7 cm wavelength is dominated by thermal free-free (bremsstrahlung) emission. It is not produced only in the vicinity of sunspots; more than 60% of the total flux may be due to a widely-distributed emission associated with the hot complexes of activity. Using a model for the solar atmosphere based upon an assumption of weak (or vertical) magnetic fields, the spectrum of the S-component is calculated and its sensitivity to changes in the model parameters investigated. Variation of the thicknesses of the chromosphere, transition region and mixed zone cause only small changes in the S-component spectrum; there is a much stronger dependence upon the plasma density, particularly at the base of the corona. The behaviour of the S-component at 10.7 cm wavelength is examined in more detail. We find that the largest contribution to the 10.7 cm flux originates in the low corona, that structural changes affect it only slightly, but that it is strongly density-related. This dependence upon few quantities, together with its relative localization in the low corona, contributes to the usefulness of the 10.7 cm flux as an index of solar activity.Summer Student Worker, 1988. 相似文献
19.
The paper presents the variation of 5577 Å line intensity with relative sunspot number, and 10.7 cm solar flux. The study has obtained the following important results.[(i)] The 5577 Å line intensity at Calcutta is plotted against relative sunspot number, and the variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux during 1984–1985, which is the secondary peak of the descending phase of the 21st solar cycle. The intensity curves show periodic variation with different solar parameters.[(ii)] The 5577 Å line intensity at Mt. Abu also shows periodic variation with solar parameters during the period 1965–1968 when there was a peak phase of the 20th solar cycle.[(iii)] A possible explanation for such variation is also presented. 相似文献
20.
During sunspot cycles 20 and 21, the maximum in smoothed 10.7-cm solar radio flux occurred about 1.5 yr after the maximum smoothed sunspot number, whereas during cycles 18 and 19 no lag was observed. Thus, although 10.7-cm radio flux and Zürich suspot number are highly correlated, they are not interchangeable, especially near solar maximum. The 10.7-cm flux more closely follows the number of sunspots visible on the solar disk, while the Zürich sunspot number more closely follows the number of sunspot groups. The number of sunspots in an active region is one measure of the complexity of the magnetic structure of the region, and the coincidence in the maxima of radio flux and number of sunspots apparently reflects higher radio emission from active regions of greater magnetic complexity. The presence of a lag between sunspot-number maximum and radio-flux maximum in some cycles but not in others argues that some aspect of the average magnetic complexity near solar maximum must vary from cycle to cycle. A speculative possibility is that the radio-flux lag discriminates between long-period and short-period cycles, being another indicator that the solar cycle switches between long-period and short-period modes.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. under contract with the National Science Foundation. 相似文献