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1.
We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT), including intense storms at the level of- 200 nT< Dst ≤-100 nT, great storms at -300 nT< Dst ≤-200 nT, and super storms at Dst ≤-300 nT, which occurred during the period of 1957-2006, based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Statistics show that the majority (82%) of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst ≤-100 nT that occurred in the study period were intense geomagnetic storms, with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms. It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle, and about 73% in the descending one. Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms, 79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak, or in the three years after it. The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred, during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years after it, is investigated. Finally, the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.  相似文献   

2.
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs) during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index) during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68) and aa index(0.86) during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13± 14.97 and 104.23± 17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24.Further,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024.While the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.  相似文献   

3.
The concept of degree of similarity(η),is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter(e.g.the maximum amplitude Rmax)of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one,and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed.For two parameters,the solar minimum(Rmin)and rising rate(βa),which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum,a synthesis degree of similarity(ηs)is defined as the weighted-average of theηvalues around Rmin and βa,with the weights given by the coef...  相似文献   

4.
Solar radiophysics is a rapidly developing branch of solar physics and plasma astrophysics. Solar radiophysics has the goal of analyzing observations of radio emissions from the Sun and understanding basic physical processes operating in quiet and active regions of the solar corona. In the near future, the commissioning of a new generation of solar radio observational facilities, which include the Chinese Spectral Radio Heliograph（CSRH） and the upgrade of the Siberian Solar Radio Telescope（SSRT）, and the beginning of solar observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array（ALMA）, is expected to bring us new breakthrough results of a transformative nature. The Marie-Curie International Research Staff Exchange（MC IRSES） “RadioSun” international network aims to create a solid foundation for the successful exploitation of upcoming solar radio observational facilities, as well as intensive use of the existing observational tools, advanced theoretical modeling of relevant physical processes and observables, and training a new generation of solar radio physicists. The RadioSun network links research teams from China,Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and the UK. This mini-volume presents research papers based on invited reviews and contributed talks at the 1st RadioSun workshop in China. These papers cover a broad range of research topics and include recent observational and theoretical advances in solar radiophysics, MHD seismology of the solar corona, physics of solar flares, generation of radio emission, numerical modeling of MHD and plasma physics processes, charged-particle acceleration and novel instrumentation.  相似文献   

5.
We analyze long-term variations of several solar activity indices(AIs) that have been measured over the last 40 years. With this goal, we study the AIs that characterize the fluxes from different areas in the solar atmosphere. Our consideration of mutual correlations between the solar indices is based on the study of relationships between them in the period from 1950 to 1990. This period of time, covering activity cycles 19–22, is characterized by relatively stable relations between the indices. We investigate the normalized variations of these indices in recent time in relation to their values which were calculated by considering radiation from the Sun in the radio range at a wavelength of 10.7 cm(F10.7) in 1950–1990.The analysis of time series, representing variations of the normalized AI(AIFF) in solar cycles 23–24,shows different trends exist for different indices in terms of their long-term behavior. We assume that variations of normalized International Sunspot Number(SSN), F530.3 and Flare Index, which have shown sharp decreases in the last 40 years, are possibly associated with a decrease in the intensity of large-scale magnetic fields in the photosphere(SSN) and in the corona(the coronal index and the Flare Index).  相似文献   

6.
A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM- KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.  相似文献   

7.
A new solar telescope system is described, which has been operating at Huairou Solar Observing Station (HSOS), National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), since the end of 2005. This instrument, the Solar Magnetism and Activity Telescope (SMAT), comprises two telescopes which respectively make measurements of full solar disk vector magnetic field and Hα observation. The core of the full solar disk video vector magnetograph is a birefringent filter with 0.1  bandpass, installed in the tele-centric optical system of the telescope. We present some preliminary observational results of the full solar disk vector magnetograms and Hα filtergrams obtained with this telescope system.  相似文献   

8.
We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.  相似文献   

9.
This study aims at investigating surface magnetic flux participation among different types of magnetic features during solar cycle 24. State-of-the-art observations from SDO/HMI and Hinode/SOT are combined to form a unique database in the interval from April 2010 to October 2015. Unlike previous studies, the statistics presented in this paper are feature-detection-based. More than 20 million magnetic features with relatively large scale, such as sunspot/pore, enhanced and quiet networks, are automatically detected and categorized from HMI observations, and the internetwork features are identified from SOT/SP observations. The total flux from these magnetic features reaches 5.9×1022 Mx during solar minimum and2.4 × 1023 Mx in solar maximum. Flux occupation from the sunspot/pore region is 29% in solar maximum.Enhanced and quiet networks contribute 18% and 21% flux during the solar minimum, and 50% and 9% flux in the solar maximum respectively. The internetwork field contributes over 55% of flux in the solar minimum, and its flux contribution exceeds that of sunspot/pore features in the solar maximum. During the solar active condition, the sunspot field increases its area but keeps constant flux density of about 150 G,while the enhanced network follows the sunspot number variation showing increasing flux density and area,but the quiet network displays decreasing area and somewhat increasing flux density of about 6%. The origin of the quiet network is not known exactly, but is suggestive of representing the interplay between mean-field and local dynamos. The source, magnitude and possible importance of ‘hidden flux' are discussed in some detail.  相似文献   

10.
Solar type Ⅲ radio bursts are an important diagnostic tool in the understanding of solar accelerated electron beams. They are a signature of propagating beams of nonthermal electrons in the solar atmosphere and the solar system. Consequently, they provide information on electron acceleration and transport, and the conditions of the background ambient plasma they travel through. We review the observational properties of type Ⅲ bursts with an emphasis on recent results and how each property can help identify attributes of electron beams and the ambient background plasma. We also review some of the theoretical aspects of type Ⅲ radio bursts and cover a number of numerical efforts that simulate electron beam transport through the solar corona and the heliosphere.  相似文献   

11.
Observations of the sky irradiation intensity in the visible wavelengths during a solar eclipse permit to model the Sun diameter,a key number to constrain the internal structure of our star.In this paper,we present an algorithm that takes advantage of the precise Moon topography from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to compute,with a high resolution in time,the geometrical part(i.e.top-of-atmosphere,and for a given wavelength)of the sky irradiation at any given location on the Earth during these events.The algorithm is also able to model the Baily’s beads.We give as an application the theoretical computation of the light curve corresponding to the solar eclipse observed at Lakeland(Queensland,North Australia)on 2012 November 13.The application to real data,with the introduction of atmospheric and instrumental passbands,will be considered in a forthcoming paper.  相似文献   

12.
We present the results of a study on the north-south asymmetry of solar filaments at low(50°) and high(60°) latitudes using daily filament numbers from January 1998 to November 2008(solar cycle 23). It is found that the northern hemisphere is dominant at low latitudes for cycle 23. However, a similar asymmetry does not occur for solar filaments at high latitudes. The present study indicates that the hemispheric asymmetry of solar filaments at high latitudes in a cycle appears to have little connection with that at low latitudes. Our results support that the observed magnetic fields at high latitudes include two components: one comes from the emergence of the magnetic fields from the solar interior and the other comes from the drift of the magnetic activity at low latitudes.  相似文献   

13.
This paper reviews the studies of solar photospheric magnetic field evolution in active regions and its relationship to solar flares. It is divided into two topics, the magnetic structure and evolution leading to solar eruptions and rapid changes in the photospheric magnetic field associated with eruptions. For the first topic, we describe the magnetic complexity, new flux emergence, flux cancelation, shear motions, sunspot rotation and magnetic helicity injection, which may all contribute to the storage and buildup of energy that trigger solar eruptions. For the second topic, we concentrate on the observations of rapid and irreversible changes of the photospheric magnetic field associated with flares, and the implication on the restructuring of the three-dimensional magnetic field. In particular, we emphasize the recent advances in observations of the photospheric magnetic field, as state-of-the-art observing facilities(such as Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory) have become available. The linkages between observations, theories and future prospectives in this research area are also discussed.  相似文献   

14.
Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.  相似文献   

15.
Dynamic processes occurring in solar active regions are dominated by the solar magnetic field. As of now, observations using a solar magnetograph have supplied us with the vector components of a solar photospheric magnetic field. The two transverse components of a photospheric magnetic field allow us to compute the amount of electric current. We found that the electric current in areas with positive (negative) polarity due to the longitudinal magnetic field have both positive and negative signs in an active region, however, the net current is found to be an order-of-magnitude less than the mean absolute magnitude and has a preferred sign. In particular, we have statistically found that there is a systematic net electric current from areas with negative (positive) polarity to areas with positive (negative) polarity in solar active regions in the northern (southern) hemisphere, but during the solar minimum this tendency is reversed over time at some latitudes. The result indicates that there is weak net electric current in areas of solar active regions with opposite polarity, thus providing further details about the hemispheric helicity rule found in a series of previous studies.  相似文献   

16.
A solar radio burst was observed in a coronal mass ejection/flare event by the Solar Broadband Radio Spectrometer at the Huairou Solar Observing Station on2004 December 1. The data exhibited various patterns of plasma motions, suggestive of the interaction between sunward moving plasmoids and the flare loop system during the impulsive phase of the event. In addition to the radio data, the associated whitelight, Hα, extreme ultraviolet light, and soft and hard X-rays were also studied.  相似文献   

17.
The Solar Flare Index is regarded as one of the most important solar indices in the field of solarterrestrial research. It has the maximum effect on Earth of all other solar activity indices and is being considered for describing the short-lived dynamo action inside the Sun. This paper attempts to study the short as well as long-term temporal fluctuations in the chromosphere region of the Sun using the Solar Flare Index. The daily Solar Flare Index for Northern, Southern Hemisphere and Total Disk are considered for a period from January 1976 to December 2014(total 14 245 days) for chaotic as well as periodic analysis.The 0–1 test has been employed to investigate the chaotic behavior associated with the Solar Flare Index.This test revealed that the time series data is non-linear and multi-periodic in nature with deterministic chaotic features. For periodic analysis, the Raleigh Power Spectrum algorithm has been used for identifying the predominant periods within the data along with their confidence score. The well-known fundamental period of 27 days and 11 years along with their harmonics are well affirmed in our investigation with a period of 28 days and 10.77 years. The presence of 14 days and 7 days periods in this investigation states the short-lived action inside the Sun. Our investigation also demonstrates the presence of other mid-range periods including the famous Rieger type period which are very much confirming the results obtained by other authors using various solar activity indicators.  相似文献   

18.
We use wavelet transform to analyze the daily relative sunspot number series over solar cycles 10-23. The characteristics of some of the periods shorter than ～ 600-day are discussed. The results exhibit not only the variation of some short periods in the 14 solar cy-cles but also the characteristics and differences around solar peaks and valley years. The short periodic components with larger amplitude such as ～27,～150 and ～360-day are obvious in some solar cycles,all of them are time-variable,also their lengths and amplitudes are vari-able and intermittent in time. The variable characteristics of the periods are rather different in different solar cycles.  相似文献   

19.
The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.  相似文献   

20.
Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number, Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, D_i, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show (1) for 46 months (94%) of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri-D_i plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level α= 5%, and for 36 months (73%) the fitting is even better, for α= 1%;(2) time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; (3) the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log R_i=0.704 In D_i-0.291.  相似文献   

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