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1.
Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), the El Ni o(EN) and La Ni a(LN) events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN(LN) events the positive(negative) SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive(negative) PDO phases than in negative(positive) phases. Meanwhile,the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more(58% less) frequent than LN in positive(negative)PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data.  相似文献   

2.
We present an overview of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) stability simulation using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences climate system model(CAMS-CSM). The ENSO stability was quantified based on the Bjerknes(BJ) stability index. Generally speaking, CAMS-CSM has the capacity of reasonably representing the BJ index and ENSO-related air–sea feedback processes. The major simulation biases exist in the underestimated thermodynamic damping and thermocline feedbacks. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that the underestimated thermodynamic feedback is due to the underestimation of the shortwave radiation feedback, which arises from the cold bias in mean sea surface temperature(SST) over central–eastern equatorial Pacific(CEEP). The underestimated thermocline feedback is attributed to the weakened mean upwelling and weakened wind–SST feedback(μ_a) in the model simulation compared to observation. We found that the weakened μ_a is also due to the cold mean SST over the CEEP.The study highlights the essential role of reasonably representing the climatological mean state in ENSO simulations.  相似文献   

3.
The role of halted "baroclinic modes" in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to "baroclinic modes" occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific, in a two-and-a-half layer oceanic model, in assimilated results of a simple OGCM and in the ADCP observation of TAO. A second "baroclinic mode" is halted in the central equatorial Pacific corresponding to a positive SST anomaly while the first "baroclinic mode" propagates eastwards in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The role of the halted second "baroclinic mode" in the central equatorial Pacific is explained by a staged ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the formation of El Nino: the westerly bursts in boreal winter over the western equatorial Pacific generate the halted second "baroclinic mode" in the central equatorial Pacific, leading to the increase of heat content and temperature in the upper layer of the central Pacific which induces the shift of convection from over the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific; another wider, westerly anomaly burst is induced over the western region of convection above the central equatorial Pacific and the westerly anomaly burst generates the first "baroclinic mode" propagating to the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a warm event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The mechanism presented in this paper reveals that the central equatorial Pacific is a key region in detecting the possibility of ENSO and, by analyzing TAO observation data of ocean currents and temperature in the central equatorial Pacific, in predicting the coming of an El Nino several months ahead.  相似文献   

4.
The impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau(SHTP) on the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)with and without air–sea interaction was investigated in this study. Data analysis indicated that SHTP acts as a relatively independent factor in modulating the WPSH anomaly compared with ENSO events. Stronger spring SHTP is usually followed by an enhanced and westward extension of the WPSH in summer, and vice versa. Numerical experiments using both an AGCM and a CGCM confirmed that SHTP influences the large-scale circulation anomaly over the Pacific, which features a barotropic anticyclonic response over the northwestern Pacific and a cyclonic response to the south. Owing to different background circulation in spring and summer, such a response facilitates a subdued WPSH in spring but an enhanced WPSH in summer. Moreover, the CGCM results showed that the equatorial low-level westerly at the south edge of the cyclonic anomaly brings about a warm SST anomaly(SSTA) in the equatorial central Pacific via surface warm advection.Subsequently, an atmospheric Rossby wave is stimulated to the northwest of the warm SSTA, which in turn enhances the atmospheric dipole anomalies over the western Pacific. Therefore, the air–sea feedbacks involved tend to reinforce the effect of SHTP on the WPSH anomaly, and the role of SHTP on general circulation needs to be considered in a land–air–sea interaction framework.  相似文献   

5.
After the strong 2015/16 El Ni?o event, cold conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific with the second-year cooling of the 2017/18 La Ni?a event. Many coupled models failed to predict the cold SST anomalies(SSTAs) in 2017. By using the ERA5 and GODAS(Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) products, atmospheric and oceanic factors were examined that could have been responsible for the second-year cooling, including surface wind and the subsurface thermal state. A time sequence is described to demonstrate how the cold SSTAs were produced in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2017. Since July 2017, easterly anomalies strengthened in the central Pacific; in the meantime, wind stress divergence anomalies emerged in the far eastern region, which strengthened during the following months and propagated westward, contributing to the development of the second-year cooling in 2017. At the subsurface, weak negative temperature anomalies were accompanied by upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which provided the cold water source for the sea surface. Thereafter, both the cold anomalies and upwelling were enhanced and extended westward in the centraleastern equatorial Pacific. These changes were associated with the seasonally weakened EUC(the Equatorial Undercurrent) and strengthened SEC(the South Equatorial Current), which favored more cold waters being accumulated in the central-equatorial Pacific. Then, the subsurface cold waters stretched upward with the convergence of the horizontal currents and eventually outcropped to the surface. The subsurface-induced SSTAs acted to induce local coupled air–sea interactions, which generated atmospheric–oceanic anomalies developing and evolving into the second-year cooling in the fall of 2017.  相似文献   

6.
Statistically different precursory air–sea signals between a super and a regular El Ni no group are investigated, using observed SST and rainfall data, and oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data. The El Ni no events during 1958–2008 are first separated into two groups: a super El Ni no group(S-group) and a regular El Ni no group(R-group). Composite analysis shows that a significantly larger SST anomaly(SSTA) tendency appears in S-group than in R-group during the onset phase[April–May(0)], when the positive SSTA is very small. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis indicates that the tendency difference arises primarily from the difference in zonal advective feedback and the associated zonal current anomaly(u).This is attributed to the difference in the thermocline depth anomaly(D) over the off-equatorial western Pacific prior to the onset phase, as revealed by three ocean assimilation products. Such a difference in D is caused by the difference in the wind stress curl anomaly in situ, which is mainly regulated by the anomalous SST and precipitation over the Maritime Continent and equatorial Pacific.  相似文献   

7.
By applying the historical-run outputs from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5） models and the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST V3 b dataset（ERSST）, the characteristics of different types of ENSO in the selected CMIP5 models, including cold-season-matured Eastern Pacific（C-EP） ENSO, warmseason-matured EP（W-EP） ENSO, cold-season-matured Central Pacific（C-CP） ENSO, and warm-season-matured CP（W-CP） ENSO, were examined in comparison with those in the ERSST dataset. The results showed that, in general, consistent with observations, EP ENSO events in most of the model runs were relatively much stronger than CP ENSO events, and cold-season-matured ENSO events were relatively much more frequent than warm-season-matured ENSO events for both EP and CP ENSO events. The composite amplitudes of ENSO events in most of the models were generally weaker than in observations, particularly for EP El Ni？o and CP La Ni？a. Moreover, most of the models successfully reproduced the amplitude asymmetries between El Ni？o and La Ni？a for cold-season-matured EP and CP ENSO events, exhibiting an average stronger/weaker EP El Ni？o/La Ni？a regime and a weaker/stronger CP El Ni？o/La Ni？a regime. Most of the models, however, failed to reproduce the observed regimes of stronger/weaker W-EP El Ni？o/ La Ni？a and weaker/stronger W-CP El Ni？o/La Ni？a.  相似文献   

8.
The floods caused by the extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) and Murray–Darling River basin(MDRB), the largest basins in China and Australia, have significant impacts on the society and regional economies.Based on the spatial–temporal analysis of the daily precipitation extremes(DPEs) during 1982–2016, we found that for both basins, the whole-basin-type DPEs have the highest proportion and a synchronous DPE interannual variation characteristic exists in the two basins, with the 3-yr running correlation coefficient of the annual DPE days(DPEDs) reaching almost 0.7(significant at the 0.01 level). The El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), which is one of the most significant climate disturbance factors in the world, plays an important role in modulating the variability of the DPEs in the two basins. Singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis revealed that both the YRB and the MDRB's whole-basin-type DPEs are closely coupled with the procedure that the preceding winter eastern Pacific(EP)-type El Ni?o faded to a central Pacific(CP)-type La Ni?a. This means that the DPEs in the YRB and MDRB may synchronously occur more frequently when the above process occurs. Owing to the atmosphere–ocean interaction from the east–west dipole sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly pattern, the atmospheric circulation disturbance exhibits a pattern in which the equatorial eastern Pacific region is a mass source anomaly with a higher pressure,drier air, and weaker convection, while the equatorial western Pacific region is a mass sink anomaly with a lower pressure, wetter air, and stronger convection. Moreover, two wave trains that originated from the tropical western Pacific were found to extend to the YRB and MDRB. The interaction between the wave train's interphase dynamics and water vapor transport disturbance results in the ascent conditions and enhanced water vapor transport, which leads to the synchronous occurrence of DPEs in the YRB and MDRB on an interannual scale.  相似文献   

9.
The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction, in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event, is a key target. Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices. The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs) in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural...  相似文献   

10.
Revisiting Asymmetry for the Decaying Phases of El Nino and La Nina   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
This study investigated the relationship be- tween the asymmetry in the duration of El Nifio and La Nina and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Nino and La Nina are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Nina in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.  相似文献   

11.
Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Nino events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Nino event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)magnitude over the Nino 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Nino events(i.e.,1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Nino event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Nino events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Nino is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature(as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Nino events.As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.  相似文献   

12.
El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM). However, the effect of La Ni?a events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Ni?o events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Ni?o events and stronger during La Ni?a winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Ni?o years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific(WNP) anticyclone during El Ni?o events and the WNP cyclone during La Ni?a events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Ni?a events is westward-shifted relative to its El Ni?o counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Ni?o and La Ni?a anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP.However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.  相似文献   

13.
The role of halted “baroclinic modes” in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to “baroclinic modes” occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific, in a two-and-a-half layer oceanic model, in assimilated results of a simple OGCM and in the ADCP observation of TAO. A second “baroclinic mode” is halted in the central equatorial Pacific corresponding to a positive SST anomaly while the first “baroclinic mode” propagates eastwards in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The role of the halted second “baroclinic mode” in the central equatorial Pacific is explained by a staged ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the formation of El Ni?no: the westerly bursts in boreal winter over the western equatorial Pacific generate the halted second “baroclinic mode” in the central equatorial Pacific, leading to the increase of heat content and temperature in the upper layer of the central Pacific which induces the shift of convection from over the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific; another wider, westerly anomaly burst is induced over the western region of convection above the central equatorial Pacific and the westerly anomaly burst generates the first “baroclinic mode” propagating to the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a warm event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The mechanism presented in this paper reveals that the central equatorial Pacific is a key region in detecting the possibility of ENSO and, by analyzing TAO observation data of ocean currents and temperature in the central equatorial Pacific, in predicting the coming of an El Ni?no several months ahead.  相似文献   

14.
Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Ni?a after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Ni?a prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Ni?a development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.  相似文献   

15.
El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events have a strong influence on East Asian summer rainfall(EASR).This paper investigates the simulated ENSO-EASR relationship in CMIP6 models and compares the results with those in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.In general,the CMIP6 models show almost no appreciable progress in representing the ENSO-EASR relationship compared with the CMIP5 models.The correlation coefficients in the CMIP6 models are relatively smaller and exhibit a slightly greater intermodel diversity than those in the CMIP5 models.Three physical processes related to the delayed effect of ENSO on EASR are further analyzed.Results show that,firstly,the relationships between ENSO and the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)sea surface temperature(SST)in the CMIP6 models are more realistic,stronger,and have less intermodel diversity than those in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.Secondly,the teleconnections between the TIO SST and Philippine Sea convection(PSC)in the CMIP6 models are almost the same as those in the CMIP5 models,and stronger than those in the CMIP3 models.Finally,the CMIP3,CMIP5,and CMIP6 models exhibit essentially identical capabilities in representing the PSC-EASR relationship.Almost all the three generations of models underestimate the ENSO-EASR,TIO SST-PSC,and PSC-EASR relationships.Moreover,almost all the CMIP6 models that successfully capture the significant TIO SST-PSC relationship realistically simulate the ENSO-EASR relationship and vice versa,which is,however,not the case in the CMIP5 models.  相似文献   

16.
Warm and cold phases of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their decay speed. To explore the physical mechanism responsible for this asymmetric decay speed, the asymmetric features of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation over the tropical Western Pacific (WP) in El Nino and La Nina mature-to-decay phases are analyzed. It is found that the interannual standard deviations of outgoing longwave radiation and 850 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial WP during El Nino (La Nina) mature-to-decay phases are much stronger (weaker) than the intraseasonal standard deviations. It seems that the weakened (enhanced) intraseasonal oscillation during El Nino (La Nina) tends to favor a stronger (weaker) interannual variation of the atmospheric wind, resulting in asymmetric equatorial WP zonal wind anomalies in El Nino and La Nina decay phases. Numerical experiments demonstrate that such asymmetric zonal wind stress anomalies during El Nino and La Nina decay phases can lead to an asymmetric decay speed of SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific through stimulating di erent equatorial Kelvin waves. The largest negative anomaly over the Nino3 region caused by the zonal wind stress anomalies during El Nino can be threefold greater than the positive Nino3 SSTA anomalies during La Nina, indicating that the stronger zonal wind stress anomalies over the equatorial WP play an important role in the faster decay speed during El Nino.  相似文献   

17.
The latest two versions of the IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model- versions g1.0 and g1.1, are described in this study. Both two versions are fully coupled GCMs without any flux correction, major changes for g1.1 mainly lie in four aspects: (1) advection schemes for tracer in the ocean component model; (2) zonal filter scheme in high latitudes in the ocean component model; (3) coupling scheme for fresh water flux in high latitudes; and (4) an improved algorithm of airsea turbulent flux depending on the surface current of the ocean. As a result, the substantial cold biases in the tropical Pacific and high latitudes are improved by g1.1, especially g1.1 simulates more reasonable equatorial thermocline, poleward heat transport, zonal overturning stream function in the ocean and sea ice distribution than g1.0. Significant ENSO variability are simulated by both versions, however the ENSO behavior by g1.0 differs from the observed one in many aspects: about twice ENSO amplitude as observed, false ENSO asymmetry, only one peak period around 3 years, etc. Due to improved mean climate state by g1.1, many basic characteristics of ENSO are reproduced by g1.1, e.g., more reasonable ENSO amplitude, two peaks of power spectra for ENSO events, and positive SST skewness in the eastern Pacific as observed.  相似文献   

18.
The seasonality of the interaction between convection over the western Pacific and general circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is analyzed in the present paper with singular value decomposition (SVD) and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approaches, based on 500 hPa monthly mean geopotential height data and high-cloud amount data. The analyses demonstrate that coupled dominant patterns in the interaction between the convection over the western Pacific and the general circulation in NH are different in various seasons. In spring, the convection over the western Pacific is closely related with the western Atlantic (WA) and North Pacific (NP) like patterns of the general circulation in NH, and some associations between the WA and NP like pat?terns and the El Ni?o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle are also existed. The Pacific Japan (PJ) pattern is the dom?inant pattern in the interaction between the interannual variabilities of the convection over the western Pacific and the general circulation in NH summer. The WA like pattern and 3-4 year period oscillation are also relatively obvious for the summer case. In autumn, the convection over the western Pacific is closely linked with the Eurasian (EU) like pattern and the Atlantic oscillation in the general circulation in NH, it is suggested that in autumn the vitiation of convective activity over the western Pacific is largely affected by the general circulation anomaly (cold air from high latitudes) through EU like teleconnection pattern. Abrupt change happened by the end of 1980’s in the autumn interaction. The strong interaction between the western Pacific (WP) and EU like patterns in the general circulation in NH and the convection over the western Pacific and a linear trend of increasing of this interaction are also suggested in winter. It is also demonstrated that the interaction in summer and winter is stronger than in the transition seasons (spring and autumn).  相似文献   

19.
This study evaluated the simulated cloud radiative feedbacks(CRF) during the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycle in the latest version of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences climate system model(CAMS-CSM). We conducted two experimental model simulations: the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP), forced by the observed sea surface temperature(SST); and the preindustrial control(PIcontrol), a coupled run without flux correction. We found that both the experiments generally reproduced the observed features of the shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing(SWCRF and LWCRF) feedbacks. The AMIP run exhibited better simulation performance in the magnitude and spatial distribution than the PIcontrol run. Furthermore, the simulation biases in SWCRF and LWCRF feedbacks were linked to the biases in the representation of the corresponding total cloud cover and precipitation feedbacks. It is interesting to further find that the simulation bias originating in the atmospheric component was amplified in the PIcontrol run, indicating that the coupling aggravated the simulation bias.Since the PIcontrol run exhibited an apparent mean SST cold bias over the cold tongue, the precipitation response to the SST anomaly(SSTA) changes during the ENSO cycle occurred towards the relatively warmer western equatorial Pacific. Thus, the corresponding cloud cover and CRF shifted westward and showed a weaker magnitude in the PIcontrol run versus observational data. In contrast, the AMIP run was forced by the observational SST, hence representing a more realistic CRF. Our results demonstrate the challenges of simulating CRF in coupled models. This study also underscores the necessity of realistically representing the climatological mean state when simulating CRF during the ENSO cycle.  相似文献   

20.
The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.  相似文献   

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