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1.
Air pollution has been a major transboundary problem and a matter of global concern for decades. Climate change and air pollution are closely coupled. Just as air pollution can have adverse effects on human health and ecosystems, it can also impact the earth’s climate. As we enter an era of rapid climate change, the implications for air quality need to be better understood, both for the purpose of air quality management and as one of the societal consequences of climate change. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the current air quality to forecast the air quality index of an urban station Kolkata (22.65°N, 88.45°E), India for the next 5 years with neural network models. The annual and seasonal variability in the air quality indicates that the winter season is mostly affected by the pollutants. Air quality index (AQI) is estimated as a geometric mean of the pollutants considered. Different neural network models are attempted to select the best model to forecast the AQI of Kolkata. The meteorological parameters and AQI of the previous day are utilized to train the models to forecast the AQI of the next day during the period from 2003 to 2012. The selection of the best model is made after validation with observation from 2013 to 2015. The radial basis functional (RBF) model is found to be the best network model for the purpose. The RBF model with various architectures is tried to obtain precise forecast with minimum error. RBF of 5:5-91-1:1 structure is found to be the best fit for forecasting the AQI of Kolkata.  相似文献   

2.
This paper comparatively analyzes the association between urban neighborhood socioeconomic markers and ambient air pollution in Vancouver and Seattle, the two largest urban regions in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound (GB-PS) international airshed. Given their similarities and common airshed, Vancouver and Seattle are useful comparators addressing not only whether socioeconomic gradients exist in urban environmental quality but also identifying clues to differences in these gradients between Canadian and American cities. Large air quality sampling campaigns and pollution regression mapping provide the pollution data, in this case nitrogen dioxide—a marker of traffic emissions considered the most important air pollutant for human health in the typical North American city. Pollution data are combined with neighborhood census data for regression and spatial analyses. Median household income is the most consistent correlate of air pollution in both cities, including their most polluted neighborhoods, although neighborhoods marked by immigrant populations do not correlate with high pollution levels in Vancouver as they do in Seattle.  相似文献   

3.
苏志华  韩会庆  陈波 《中国岩溶》2020,39(3):442-452
选取贵阳市10个空气质量监测站发布的PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO和O3实时浓度数据，通过时间序列分析法和插值法研究贵阳市大气污染物的时空变化和复合污染特征。结果表明:（1）贵阳市2014-2018年主要污染物PM2.5和PM10的年平均浓度逐渐下降，光化学污染物O3年平均浓度有所增加，空气质量逐渐转好，环境治理取得明显效果；（2）2018-2019自然年PM2.5、PM10、NO2和O3在春季污染最严重，SO2和CO在冬季污染最严重，反映出污染源、阶段性燃料燃烧和二次离子生成等因素对不同污染物的影响不同；（3）PM2.5和PM10日变化特征为“午峰晚峰”型，峰值发生的时间因季节而异，主要由不同季节人类作息的起止时间不同所致，O3日变化为单峰型，夜间O3浓度较低，从早晨8:00点开始随着太阳辐射的增大和温度的升高，在15:00-16:00点左右达到峰值；（4）PM2.5的空间分布呈现出部分郊区和工业区较高，市中心居民区较低的特征，指示城市建设向郊区推进。O3浓度呈现出市区低、郊区高的空间分布特征，反映郊区植被覆盖好，释放的天然源VOCs促进了O3生成；（5）主要污染物O3与颗粒物PM2.5和PM10在春季造成的复合污染最为严重，在夏季O3与PM10造成一定程度的复合污染，在秋冬季O3浓度最低，O3与颗粒物不产生复合污染；一天之内同一时刻O3与颗粒物不会产生叠加从而造成复合污染。   相似文献   

4.
In this paper, we propose a framework for quantifying risks, including (1) the effects of forecast errors, (2) the ability to resolve critical grid features that are important to accurate site-specific forecasts, and (3) a framework that can move us toward performance-based/cost-based decisions, within an extremely fast execution time. A key element presently lacking in previous studies is the interrelationship between the effects of combined random errors and bias in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and bias and random errors in surge models. This approach examines the number of degrees of freedom in present forecasts and develops an equation for the quantification of these types of errors within a unified system, given the number of degrees of freedom in the NWP forecasts. It is shown that the methodology can be used to provide information on the forecasts and along with the combined uncertainty due to all of the individual contributions. A potential important benefit from studies using this approach would be the ability to estimate financial and other trade-offs between higher-cost “rapid” evacuation methods and lower-cost “slower” evacuation methods. Analyses here show that uncertainty inherent in these decisions depends strongly on forecast time and geographic location. Methods based on sets of surge maxima do not capture this uncertainty and would be difficult to use for this purpose. In particular, it is shown that surge model bias can play a dominant role in distorting the forecast probabilities.  相似文献   

5.
多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中的应用展望   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
对非点源污染进行定量化和有效控制的方法是通过非点源污染负荷模型对各类非点源的形成、迁移转化以及负荷量进行模拟。然而,流域非点源污染模型的不确定性是单一模型模拟污染负荷面临的重大挑战。借鉴多模型方法在降低水文模型不确定性方面的优越性,通过分析水文模型与非点源污染模型的相通性,提出多模型方法在非点源污染负荷中应用的基本思路并分析了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷估算中面临的挑战,总结了多模型方法在非点源污染负荷应用中的重点和难点问题。  相似文献   

6.
The influence of temperature on tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations in urban and photochemically polluted areas in the greater Athens region are investigated in the present study. Hourly values of the ambient air temperature used for studying the urban heat island effect in Athens were recorded at twenty-three experimental stations while ozone concentration values were measured at three of the above-mentioned stations and for a period of two years (1996–1997). The linear correlation between ozone concentration and air temperature values as well as the temporal variation of temperature and ozone concentration, for the above-mentioned experimental stations, were calculated and analysed. Moreover, a neural network approach was used for investigating the impact of temperature on the ozone concentration values over the greater Athens area. The neural network model used ambient air temperature as one of its input parameters and it was found that temperature is a predominant parameter, affecting considerably the ozone concentration values.  相似文献   

7.
Logistics in China has grown rapidly; in 2015, the freight volume has reached 41 billion ton, increasing by 4.4% year-on-year. At the same time, the pollutant emissions from freight cars account for 70% of total emissions of motor vehicles, which severely affected the air quality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics on air pollution; we used a new methodology based on vector autoregression of freight turnover, gross domestic product, and urban population. We selected Beijing as our test and created a model using time series data for the period 2000–2014. In this model, permanent residents, freight turnover, and SO2 emission were used as proxies for population size, logistic services, and degree of air pollution. Our analyses showed that the expansion of logistic services had the biggest effect on air pollution. Moreover, impulse response analysis revealed that logistic growth caused more serious air pollution over a short time, with an ongoing negative effect. GDP growth was only weakly correlated with air pollution, while urban population growth appeared to have little effect.  相似文献   

8.
The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km2) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales.  相似文献   

9.
This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.  相似文献   

10.
An accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast is very important for disaster management. Specialized numerical prediction models have been recently used to provide high-resolution temporal and special forecasts. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model is one of the emerging numerical models for tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates the performance of HWRF model during the post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar on the north Indian Ocean basin. The evaluation uses the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). Cyclone track, central pressure, and wind speed are covered on this evaluation. Generally, HWRF was able to predict the Nilofar track with track error less than 230 km within the first 66 h of forecast time span. HWRF predicted more intense tropical cyclone. It predicted the lowest central pressure to be 922 hPa while it reached 950 hPa according to IMD and 937 hPa according to JTWC. Wind forecast was better as it predicted maximum wind speed of 122 kt while it reached 110 and 115 kt according to IMD and JTWC, respectively.  相似文献   

11.
The recent improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has a strong potential for extending the lead time of precipitation and subsequent flooding. However, uncertainties inherent in precipitation outputs from NWP models are propagated into hydrological forecasts and can also be magnified by the scaling process, contributing considerable uncertainties to flood forecasts. In order to address uncertainties in flood forecasting based on single-model precipitation forecasting, a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting is implemented in a configuration for two episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Wangjiaba sub-region in Huaihe River Basin, China. The present study aimed at comparing high-resolution limited-area meteorological model Canadian regional mesoscale compressible community model (MC2) with the multiple linear regression integrated forecast (MLRF), covering short and medium range. The former is a single-model approach; while the latter one is based on NWP models [(MC2, global environmental multiscale model (GEM), T213L31 global spectral model (T213)] integrating by a multiple linear regression method. Both MC2 and MLRF are coupled with Chinese National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS), MC2-NFFS and MLRF-NFFS, to simulate the discharge of the Wangjiaba sub-basin. The evaluation of the flood forecasts is performed both from a meteorological perspective and in terms of discharge prediction. The encouraging results obtained in this study demonstrate that the coupled system based on multi-model ensemble precipitation forecasting has a promising potential of increasing discharge accuracy and modeling stability in terms of precipitation amount and timing, along with reducing uncertainties in flood forecasts and models. Moreover, the precipitation distribution of MC2 is more problematic in finer temporal and spatial scales, even for the high resolution simulation, which requests further research on storm-scale data assimilation, sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds and other small-scale atmospheric dynamics.  相似文献   

12.
Regulatory geologists are concerned with predicting the performance of sites proposed for waste disposal or for remediation of existing pollution problems. Geologic modeling of these sites requires large-scale expansion of knowledge obtained from very limited sampling. This expansion induces considerable uncertainty into the geologic models of rock properties that are required for modeling the predicted performance of the site.One method for assessing this uncertainty is through nonparametric geostatistical simulation. Simulation can produce a series of equiprobable models of a rock property of interest. Each model honors measured values at sampled locations, and each can be constructed to emulate both the univariate histogram and the spatial covariance structure of the measured data. Computing a performance model for a number of geologic simulations allows evaluation of the effects of geologic uncertainty. A site may be judged acceptable if the number of failures to meet a particular performance criterion produced by these computations is sufficiently low. A site that produces too many failures may be either unacceptable or simply inadequately described.The simulation approach to addressing geologic uncertainty is being applied to the potential high-level nuclear waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. Preliminary geologic models of unsaturated permeability have been created that reproduce observed statistical properties reasonably well. A spread of unsaturated groundwater travel times has been computed that reflects the variability of those geologic models. Regions within the simulated models exhibiting the greatest variability among multiple runs are candidates for obtaining the greatest reduction in uncertainty through additional site characterization.  相似文献   

13.
针对两个最新换代的季度集合预测系统对中国季度降水预测中存在的系统缺陷,应用改进的贝叶斯联合概率模型（BJP）加以订正。对订正后的单一模式概率预测应用一种混合模型贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法加以集成,以综合各模式的优势来提高中国季度降水预测技巧。结果表明:BJP模型可有效地消除集合模式预测的系统偏差,同时大幅提高了概率预测的可靠性。经过订正的欧洲中尺度天气预报中心的 System4预测在许多季度在中国的很大区域范围内都显示出了一定的预测技巧;而澳洲气象局的POAMA2.4预测只在个别季度局部范围内具有技巧。使用BMA对订正后的单一模式预测进行集成可显著提高对中国季度降水预测的精度,相比单一模式预测,技巧得分为正值的网格百分率分别提高了13.3%和20.0%。  相似文献   

14.
An operational atmospheric dispersion prediction system is implemented on a cluster supercomputer for Online Emergency Response at the Kalpakkam nuclear site. This numerical system constitutes a parallel version of a nested grid meso-scale meteorological model MM5 coupled to a random walk particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The system provides 48-hour forecast of the local weather and radioactive plume dispersion due to hypothetical airborne releases in a range of 100 km around the site. The parallel code was implemented on different cluster configurations like distributed and shared memory systems. A 16-node dual Xeon distributed memory gigabit ethernet cluster has been found sufficient for operational applications. The runtime of a triple nested domain MM5 is about 4 h for a 24 h forecast. The system had been operated continuously for a few months and results were ported on the IMSc home page. Initial and periodic boundary condition data for MM5 are provided by NCMRWF, New Delhi. An alternative source is found to be NCEP, USA. These two sources provide the input data to the operational models at different spatial and temporal resolutions using different assimilation methods. A comparative study on the results of forecast is presented using these two data sources for present operational use. Improvement is noticed in rainfall forecasts that used NCEP data, probably because of its high spatial and temporal resolution  相似文献   

15.
惠二青  黄钰铃  刘德富 《水文》2006,26(5):29-32
城镇地表径流污染是地表水体污染的主要原因,也是城镇河流的主要污染源之一,其识别和控制是目前城市水环境治理的重要内容。沙河是长江的二级支流,流经宜昌市某区,水体水质较差。以该区为研究对象,将其分为不同下垫面,通过监测次降雨不同时段各种下垫面地表径流中污染物浓度,建立地表径流污染物负荷估算方法,估算地表径流中污染物负荷量,为城市非点源污染削减和城市河流污染治理提供依据。  相似文献   

16.
Prediction and evaluation of pollution of the subsurface environment and planning remedial actions at existing sites may be useful for siting and designing new land-based waste treatment or disposal facilities. Most models used to make such predictions assume that the system behaves deterministically. A variety of factors, however, introduce uncertainty into the model predictions. The factors include model and pollution transport parameters and geometric uncertainty. The Monte Carlo technique is applied to evaluate the uncertainty, as illustrated by applying three analytical groundwater pollution transport models. The uncertainty analysis provides estimates of statistical reliability in model outputs of pollution concentration and arrival time. Examples are provided that demonstrate: (a) confidence limits around predicted values of concentration and arrival time can be obtained, (b) the selection of probability distributions for input parameters affects the output variables, and (c) the probability distribution of the output variables can be different from that of the input variables, even when all input parameters have the same probability distribution  相似文献   

17.
Masseran  Nurulkamal 《Natural Hazards》2022,112(2):1749-1766
Natural Hazards - The severity level of air pollution refers to the cumulative effect of unhealthy air pollutant index (API) values during certain air pollution events. High severity levels...  相似文献   

18.
With the rapid development of China’s economy, air pollution is becoming extremely serious. The spatial–temporal evolution of air pollution is conducive to the management of air pollution. The paper is proceeded into three steps. Firstly, based on the generalization principal component analysis method, the comprehensive air pollution evaluation index is established. Then, the gravity center model is utilized to explore the spatial–temporal evolution of air pollution in Yangtze River Delta from January 2014 to December 2016. Finally, the contribution decomposition method is utilized to explore the contribution to gravity center evolution. The main results are as follows: (1) The air pollution have obvious seasonal and regional differences in Yangtze River Delta. (2) The gravity center of air pollution continues to westward after 2014 with the characteristic of the north–south circular movement. (3) Hefei City and Yangzhou City have huge impact on the gravity center evolution of air pollution. The conclusions could be helpful for Chinese government to control the air pollution in Yangtze River Delta.  相似文献   

19.
There is a great demand for estimating the ambient air pollutant background concentrations in order to assess the effectiveness of different emission control strategies. In this paper, the background concentrations of four pollutants, namely sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) pollutants in urban, suburban, and rural environments were investigated using Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique. Air quality data from monitoring stations over a period of 4 years (2007–2010) was analyzed for three locations in Kuwait, namely urban, suburban, and rural. The spatial and temporal (daily, weekly, and monthly) variations of the four pollutants were analyzed. The results show that the levels of ambient air pollutant background concentrations were high in the urban site compared to suburban and rural area. The diurnal variation of SO2 concentration showed an early morning peak, while the diurnal variation of NOx concentration constituted has two peaks, one was in the early morning hours (5 to 8 a.m.) and the second was in nighttime hours (8 to 11 p.m.). These two peaks were observed at all three locations. The monthly background NOx concentration reached a maximum in winter and minimum in summer. Diurnal variation of CO concentration showed a similar trend to SO2 concentrations in all three locations. Because of the photochemical reactions that occur in the atmosphere, the background concentration of O3 showed an inverse relation with respect to background concentration of NOx.  相似文献   

20.
Beer  Tom 《Natural Hazards》2001,23(2-3):157-169
Meteorological hazards are usually considered to be tropical cyclones, droughts, hail-storms, severe storms and their effects such as tsunamis, storm surges, wildfire, and floods. Urban air pollution is not normally considered to be a meteorological hazard. This view has arisen because the causes of urban air pollution – industrial and motor vehicleemissions – are not meteorological in nature. Air pollution episodes, however, are sporadic in nature and their occurrence depends on a particular combination of meteorological factors. This is true even in megacities such as Mexico City, Manila, and Los Angeles that have acquired a reputation for polluted air. Analyses of air pollution episodes and hospital admissions from many countries indicate that thereis a significant increase in morbidity and mortality as a result of such episodes.Time-series studies undertaken in Sydney have shown that particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen dioxide are the pollutants that are primarily responsible for adverse health effects in that city.Air pollution, and in particular particulate matter, is believed to be responsible for just under 400 premature deaths per year in Sydney alone. This death rate is over twenty times larger than deaths due to other meteorological hazards. Part of the reason for the low death rate for the more traditional meteorological hazards is that the provision of high quality numerical weather prediction, coupled with modern communications technology, has enabled emergency service personnel to take appropriate action.Air quality forecasting systems can play an important role in mitigating the adverse effects of air pollution. The forecasts will affect the behaviour of susceptible individuals, and thus reduce adverse health effects. The outputs from forecasting systems can also be used to provide improved estimates of the total exposure to air pollutants of the inhabitants who areat risk. Such improved estimates can then be used in conjunction with longitudinal studies ofhealth effects to obtain better understanding of the complex interaction between air quality and health.  相似文献   

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