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1.
基于国内现行的森林火险气象指数和单因子火险贡献度模型,以及逻辑回归模型和随机森林模型,在林火预报中引入微波遥感土壤水分信息,使用MCD14DL火点数据集和地面气象观测资料对广东省不同时间尺度的林火发生概率进行预测。结果表明：逻辑回归模型和随机森林模型构建的林火预测模型显著优于现行的森林火险气象指数和单因子火险贡献度模型,预测精度提升约20%。其中,随机森林模型对林火频数的解释程度最高（两者相关系数为0.476）。此外,加入微波土壤水分信息后,相较原有的基于气象要素的林火预测模型,2种机器学习模型的预测精度均略有提升,体现了表层土壤水分信息在林火预报中的重要性。研究可为高效提取对地观测信息,以改进华南地区不同时间尺度的林火预报工作提供参考。 相似文献
2.
以我国东北地区为例,选取了地形、可达性和植被覆盖共7个静态预测因子,分别使用频率比和逻辑回归模型对火险敏感度进行制图表达.使用历史火灾数据和AUC方法对模型进行内部检验和独立检验,结果显示:1)开发的两个模型具有较好的可靠性和区分能力,BLR模型的区分能力更稳健.2)选取的几个静态因子对东北地区火险空间格局起着结构化作用,表明在区域空间尺度上使用静态预测因子对火险建模的可行性.最后,研究了2000-2009年东北地区的火灾事件响应敏感区. 相似文献
3.
基于PROSAIL模型,结合野外实测叶片等水分厚度、干物质重量、叶面积指数数据,构建一种基于归一化红外指数和归一化干物质指数的植被冠层可燃物含水率估算方法。首先,在PROSAIL模型输入实测参数模拟植被冠层光谱曲线,计算归一化红外指数、归一化干物质指数用于叶片等水分厚度、干物质重量的反演。结果表明：归一化红外指数与叶片等水分厚度、归一化干物质指数与干物质重量存在明显的线性关系,基于该关系建立叶片等水分厚度、干物质重量的经验估算模型,经验证估算结果精度较高;将该经验模型推广至利用Landsat 8数据拟合植被冠层可燃物含水率,并与实测数据进行验证,结果显示R2达到0.743,RMSE达到34.2%,具有较高的精度。文章提出的植被冠层可燃物含水率估算模型,可实现广州市过渡带森林大面积、较高精度植被冠层可燃物含水率监测,为预防森林火灾提供参考。 相似文献
4.
比较各地城市火险气象预报因子、方法和等级标准,选取普遍采用的5个气象因子;日最小相对湿度、连续无降水日数对城市火险的贡献最大,指数范围分别为0～40和0～30,日最高温度、日最大风力0～20,日降水量0～-20,综合指数范围一般为0～100进行等间隔划分,得到从低到高5级城市火险气象等级标准.通过两项试验来优化等级划分效果:1)从北到南选取5个城市,比较上述方法与各地方法计算的2001年1、4、7、10月逐日火险等级,经过反复调试,使两套方法计算的等级完全一致和相差一级合计在85%以上;2)统计全国31个中心城市2000～2003年逐日城市火险气象等级5级分布的概率,使之基本符合正态分布.从而得到各气象因子的划分范围、对应城市火险气象指数值以及综合城市火险气象等级标准,给出相应名称和指示意义. 相似文献
5.
野火灾害对区域生态系统和全球气候系统造成了严重影响,野火灾害风险评估和火蔓延研究对防火、灭火具有重要意义.本文对国内外可燃物模型、可燃物类型图的制作方法,野火蔓延模型、蔓延的计算机模拟技术和火灾风险评估的最新研究状况和发展趋势进行了综述,并提出对野火灾害风险评价的理论框架.综述分析表明:①基于遥感信息和地面调查数据,建立较完善的可燃物模型,为全球或区域火灾风险评估、火蔓延研究提供有效数据信息成为必然趋势;②利用地球空间信息技术,计算机技术和数学方法解决火灾模拟海量数据问题.实现火行为的实时、动态模拟仿真的监测系统和网络信息发布系统:③结合可燃物模型,蔓延模型评价火灾区域的脆弱性和致灾因子,利用"灾害风险评估"的理论和方法对野火灾害风险进行综合评估.④我国应建立集成化、实用化、多维化、标准化的野火蔓延的模型体系、决策支持系统和国家火险等级系统,为我国野火火灾的预测与防御提供科学依据. 相似文献
6.
对大量国家级和区域级气象自动站资料的获取和订正,通过对降水、气温、湿度和风速等气象因子对森林火险贡献度数学模型的计算,充分应用在黔南森林火险气象等级的实时监测和预报中。通过多点、多时段的预报值、实时监测值与实况对比检验统计,得出应用系统的实时监测准确率和预报准确率。 相似文献
7.
在全球变暖趋势下,林火的频率和烈度都呈上升趋势,对林火进行准确的预警成为当前中国森林防火亟待解决的紧迫问题.当前全球最常用的火灾天气等级系统是加拿大森林火险天气指数系统(FWI),本研究介绍了其原理、基本结构、发展过程,着重介绍了FWI系统在世界范围内的校准及应用情况,对中国如何建立更适用于中国火灾特点的FWI系统提出... 相似文献
8.
河南省火灾影响因素的空间分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
科学揭示火灾及其影响因素间的空间关系可为防火管理提供决策支持和有益启示。以往研究多在“空间平稳”的框架下进行火灾影响因素分析,但火灾和其可量化的影响因素往往自身均表现为“空间异质”,基于非空间的全局模型模拟可能会得出误导性甚至错误的结论。地理加权回归(GWR)可解释火灾及其影响因素间空间关系的局部变异。本文选取影响火灾分布的高程、坡度、居民地可达性、道路可达性、地表温度、归一化差植被指数和全球植被湿度指数作为解释变量,以是否火烧作为二元因变量,应用logistic GWR对河南省2002-2012年火季(9-10月)火灾的影响因素进行探索性分析。以多时态空间抽样取得训练样本,利用GWR 4.0软件开发一个logistic GWR火烧概率模型,从可靠性和区分能力两方面对模型性能分别进行内部检验和独立检验,以确保火灾影响因素分析的可靠和合理性。结果表明:①坡度、居民地可达性、温度、植被长势和植被湿度对河南省火灾的影响呈现显著空间变化,高程、道路可达性的影响空间变化不显著,低海拔、道路可达性差的区域更易发生火灾。②温度和植被长势对火灾影响省内全局显著,坡度、居民地可达性和植被湿度对火灾影响在省内仅部分区域显著。③河南省可划分为7种类型区,不同类型区的火灾影响因素相对重要性存在差异,应因地制宜制定防火策略和确定防火重点。④logistic GWR模型可用于分析火灾影响因素的局部空间变异,作为火险研究的一种有效工具。 相似文献
9.
《地理与地理信息科学》2017,(2)
为了探讨与分析国产高分一号(GF-1)数据在北方露天煤矿区草地植被覆盖度估测中的精度及适用性,该文基于GF-1与SPOT6多光谱影像数据,以多个植被指数为自变量,利用像元二分模型、偏最小二乘(PLS)回归、支持向量机(SVM)回归3种模型对区内植被覆盖度进行估算,结合野外同步实地植被样方数据,对比分析不同估算模型的精度及适宜性,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟多尺度交叉建模的误差传播,分析空间分辨率不同对植被覆盖度估测的精度影响。结果表明:GF-1数据基于增强型植被指数的SVM回归模型(R~2=0.8149,RPD=2.336,RMSE=8.694%)与SPOT6数据基于归一化植被指数的SVM回归模型(R~2=0.8755,RPD=2.870,RMSE=7.032%)估算效果较好。不同分辨率数据交叉传递过程中SVM回归模型的精度高于PLS回归模型。因此,基于GF-1数据构建的SVM回归模型可以高精度地估算区域草地植被覆盖度。 相似文献
10.
青藏高原植被垂直带与气候因子的空间关系 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
集成了青藏高原气候区149个山地植被垂直带数据,利用国家基本气象台站自建站以来到2001年的地面观测日气象数据,计算了地面的温暖(WI)、寒冷(CI)、湿润(MI)、吉良龙夫(Kira)干湿指数、干燥度(Idm)等水热指数,运用GIS的空间分析模块,模拟了青藏高原水热条件的空间分布形势,探讨山地植被垂直带谱分布规律与制约因子的定量指标.结果表明:在高原的东北部、西北边缘,以荒漠、荒漠草原、山地森林、山地草原、灌丛、草甸为组合的半干旱、干旱结构向高原腹地以高寒草原、高山草甸、荒漠带组合的高寒干旱带谱结构的变化;东南、南部边缘,以温暖湿润为特征的以森林带为优势带谱组合结构逐渐向寒冷的高原中心变化;高原的地势效应,致使的水热形势旱现从中央向边缘变化的趋势是致使青藏高原植被垂直带谱分布的重要原因. 相似文献
11.
Early dry-season prescribed fires can reduce fuel loads and thus prevent or mitigate the severity of late, high-intensity fires that spread widely in savanna ecosystems and damage woody plants. However, due to the lack of scientific knowledge regarding fuel characteristics and fire behavior in West African savannas, this practice can have effects that are diametrically opposed to those desired and may threaten the environment. There are three crucial parameters that must be considered when planning early-season prescribed fires: the ignition probability, the rate of spread of a fire and the amount of fuel consumed. In this study, 231 early-season prescribed fires were conducted in three savanna ecosystems in Senegal in order to characterize these three fundamental parameters.Logistic regression analyses revealed that fuel moisture content and relative humidity are good predictors of ignition probability. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the relationships between fire rate of spread, fuel consumption or fire intensity and fuel and weather conditions. Readily usable nomographs for forest managers were created based on those relationships that proved to be significant. Kruskal–Wallis tests performed to compare the observed rates of fire propagation with those predicted using BehavePlus showed no statistically significant difference between them. 相似文献
12.
Paul A. Knapp 《The Professional geographer》1997,49(1):39-51
Understanding the environmental factors that influence spatial patterns of rangeland wildfires facilitates both fire and land management decisions. I used discriminant analysis to examine ignition frequency of lightning-initiated fires in grass-dominated communities in the Intermountain West between 1980 and 1994, then mapped regional fire frequencies to illustrate spatial patterns. Two canonical discriminant functions effectively separate groups of high, medium, and low ignition frequencies, based on climate conditions and fuel characteristics. Regions of highest frequency tend to have large elevational differences, more mesic climates, and less annual grass cover. Spatial patterns of ignition frequencies tend to reflect local topography, with higher frequencies west of 119° W. Expansion of exotic annual grasses throughout the region may be reducing differences in ignition frequency between regions of highest and lowest frequency. 相似文献
13.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(1):39-51
Understanding the environmental factors that influence spatial patterns of rangeland wildfires facilitates both fire and land management decisions. I used discriminant analysis to examine ignition frequency of lightning-initiated fires in grass-dominated communities in the Intermountain West between 1980 and 1994, then mapped regional fire frequencies to illustrate spatial patterns. Two canonical discriminant functions effectively separate groups of high, medium, and low ignition frequencies, based on climate conditions and fuel characteristics. Regions of highest frequency tend to have large elevational differences, more mesic climates, and less annual grass cover. Spatial patterns of ignition frequencies tend to reflect local topography, with higher frequencies west of 119° W. Expansion of exotic annual grasses throughout the region may be reducing differences in ignition frequency between regions of highest and lowest frequency. 相似文献
14.
Raphael J. Nawrotzki Hannah Brenkert-Smith Lori M. Hunter Patricia A. Champ 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(2):215-225
The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move, we use data from a survey of WUI residents in Boulder and Larimer counties, Colorado. The data were collected 2 months after the devastating Fourmile Canyon fire destroyed 169 homes and burned more than 6,000 acres of public and private land. Although this study is working with a small migrant sample, logistic regression models demonstrate that survey respondents intending to move in relation to wildfire incidence do not differ sociodemographically from their nonmigrant counterparts. They do, however, show significantly higher levels of risk perception. Investigating destination choices shows a preference for short-distance moves. 相似文献
15.
采用人为起火的方法,通过对比敦煌西湖荒漠湿地干扰区域和未干扰区域火后第一年芦苇群落特征的变化,探讨内陆荒漠湿地植被对火干扰的响应机制。了解火干扰对内陆荒漠湿地芦苇群落特征的影响。结果表明: 火干扰能够延长植物青绿期,促进了植被的个体发育;火干扰对草本层植被盖度、高度均有显著的负面影响,而对密度有显著的正面影响,对灌木层植被群落盖度、高度及密度均有正面影响,但影响不明显;火干扰后植物群落Shannon-Wiener多样性指数H′、Simpson多样性指数D和Simpson优势度指数C均减少,而Margalef物种丰富度指数Ma和Pielou均匀度指数J均增加;火干扰致使草本层植物群落多样性指数与研究区植物群落总体多样性指数变化趋势一致,致使灌木层物种H′、D和J指数均减少,而Ma和C指数均增加;火干扰致使植物群落地上总的生物量降低,主要使灌木层生物量降低,而使草本层生物量有所增加。 相似文献
16.
草原火灾风险评价与分区——以吉林省西部草原为例 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
草原火灾作为自然灾害的一种,是草原地区重要的灾害之一,对我国草原地区的可持续发展有着严重的负面效应。因此进行草原火灾风险评价研究对草原火灾管理显得极为重要。本文依据自然灾害风险分析原理,采用加权综合评分法、层次分析法 (AHP)在综合分析吉林省西部草原火灾的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的基础上,建立草原火灾风险指数模型 (GFDRI),对研究区草原火灾风险程度进行了定量评价,并借助GIS技术将吉林省西部草原火灾分为轻度 、中度、重度和极重度4个风险区。检验结果证明草原火灾风险评价和分区具有较高的可靠性,可为当地草原防火部门火灾管理和减灾决策的制定提供依据和指导。 相似文献
17.
A.C. Teodoro L. Duarte 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(4):699-720
Forest fires are widely recognized as one of the most critical events in global change. Successful fire management depends on effective fire prevention, detection, and presuppression, having an adequate fire suppression capability, and consideration of fire ecology relationships. Geographical information systems (GIS) provide tools to create, transform, and combine georeferenced variables. In Portugal, as in many other countries, it is mandatory that all the municipalities produce forest fire risk maps on an annual basis, following the rules of the Portuguese Forest Authority, a governmental association. This article presents the results of a research project aimed at producing forest fire risk maps in a GIS open source environment in Portugal. The requirements of an open source application are better quality, higher reliability, more flexibility, lower cost, and an end to predatory vendor lock-in. Three different open source desktop GIS software projects were evaluated: Quantum GIS (QGIS), generalitat valenciana, Sistema d'Informacio Geografica, and Kosmo. Taking into account the skills and experience of the authors, the main advantage of QGIS relies on the easiness and quickness in developing new plug-ins, using Python language. Therefore, this project was developed in QGIS platform and the interface was created in Python. This application incorporates seven procedures under a single toolbar. The production of the forest fire risk map comprises several steps and the production of several maps: probability, susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability, economic value, potential loss, and finally the forest fire risk map. The forest fire risk map comprises five classes: very low risk (dark green), low risk (green), medium risk (yellow), high risk (orange), and very high risk (red). This application was tested in three different municipal governments of the Norwest zone of Portugal. This application has the advantages of grouping in a unique toolbar all the procedures needed to produce forest fire risk maps and is free for the institution/user. Beyond being an open source application, this application may be faster and easier when compared with the GIS proprietary solutions that usually comprise several steps and the use of different software extensions. This work presents several contributions for the area of the GIS open source applications to forest fire risk management. 相似文献
18.
Forest fire frequency in Mediterranean countries is expected to increase with land cover and climate changes as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. Although the cause of many Mediterranean fires remains poorly defined, most fires are of anthropogenic origin and are located in the wildland urban interface (WUI), so fire ignition risk depends on both weather and land cover characteristics. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall trends in forest fire risk in the WUI of the Alpes-Maritimes department in SE France over a period of almost 50 years (about 1960–2009) and relate these to changes in land cover and temperature changes. Land cover for two contrasting reference catchments (236 km2 and 289 km2, respectively) was mapped from available aerial photographs. Changes in fire risk over time were estimated using statistical relationships defined for each type of WUI, where isolated and scattered housing present a greater risk than dense and very dense housing. Summer monthly temperatures and spring and summer precipitation were quantified over the same temporal period as land cover. Finally, trends in fire frequency and burned area were analyzed over a shorter 37 year period (1973–2009) due to the lack of available fire data before 1973. Fire risk associated with WUI expansion increased by about 18%–80% over the 1960–2009 period (depending on the catchment). Similarly, mean summer minimum and maximum monthly temperatures increased by 1.8 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively, over the same period. Summer rainfall appears to decrease over time since about the 1970's but remains highly variable. Land cover and weather changes both suggest an overall increase in fire risk. However, the number of fires and burned area have decreased significantly since about 1990. This paradoxical result is due to a change in fire-fighting strategy which reinforced the systematic extinction of fires in their early stages. Technical support in the form of improved radio communication and helicopters contributed greatly to reducing fire frequency and burned area. Surveillance and legal reforms included the introduction of field patrols and restricted access to forests during high risk periods. Although this has proven highly successful in the short term, the risk of fuel load accumulation over time remains a risk which might contribute to the development of mega-fires in extreme climatic conditions in the future. 相似文献