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1.
H. Kiliç 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):155-162
The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the
Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum,
and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities
in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion
of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys.
129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys.
65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum
ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23. 相似文献
2.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):369-380
The sunspot number series at the peak of sunspot activity often has two or three peaks (Gnevyshev peaks; Gnevyshev, Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967; Solar Phys.
51, 175, 1977). The sunspot group number (SGN) data were examined for 1997 – 2003 (part of cycle 23) and compared with data for coronal
mass ejection (CME) events. It was noticed that they exhibited mostly two Gnevyshev peaks in each of the four latitude belts
0° – 10°, 10° – 20°, 20 ° – 30°, and > 30°, in both N (northern) and S (southern) solar hemispheres. The SGN were confined
to within latitudes ± 50° around the Equator, mostly around ± 35°, and seemed to occur later in lower latitudes, indicating
possible latitudinal migration as in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In CMEs, less energetic CMEs (of widths < 71°) showed
prominent Gnevyshev peaks during sunspot maximum years in almost all latitude belts, including near the poles. The CME activity
lasted longer than the SGN activity. However, the CME peaks did not match the SGN peaks and were almost simultaneous at different
latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. In energetic CMEs including halo CMEs, the Gnevyshev peaks were obscure and
ill-defined. The solar polar magnetic fields show polarity reversal during sunspot maximum years, first at the North Pole
and, a few months later, at the South Pole. However, the CME peaks and gaps did not match with the magnetic field reversal
times, preceding them by several months, rendering any cause – effect relationship doubtful. 相似文献
3.
According to research results from solar-dynamo models, the northern and southern hemispheres may evolve separately throughout
the solar cycle. The observed phase lag between the northern and southern hemispheres provides information regarding how strongly
the hemispheres are coupled. Using hemispheric sunspot-area and sunspot-number data from Cycles 12 – 23, we determine how
out of phase the separate hemispheres are during the rising, maximum, and declining period of each solar cycle. Hemispheric
phase differences range from 0 – 11, 0 – 14, and 2 – 19 months for the rising, maximum, and declining periods, respectively.
The phases appear randomly distributed between zero months (in phase) and half of the rise (or decline) time of the solar
cycle. An analysis of the sunspot cycle double peak, or Gnevyshev gap, is conducted to determine if the double-peak is caused
by the averaging of two hemispheres that are out of phase. We confirm previous findings that the Gnevyshev gap is a phenomenon
that occurs in the separate hemispheres and is not due to a superposition of sunspot indices from hemispheres slightly out
of phase. Cross hemispheric coupling could be strongest at solar minimum, when there are large quantities of magnetic flux
at the Equator. We search for a correlation between the hemispheric phase difference near the end of the solar cycle and the
length of solar-cycle minimum, but found none. Because magnetic flux diffusion across the Equator is a mechanism by which
the hemispheres couple, we measured the magnetic flux crossing the Equator by examining Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope and SOLIS
magnetograms for Solar Cycles 21 – 23. We find, on average, a surplus of northern hemisphere magnetic flux crossing during
the mid-declining phase of each solar cycle. However, we find no correlation between magnitude of magnetic flux crossing the
Equator, length of solar minima, and phase lag between the hemispheres. 相似文献
4.
5.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):177-190
From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective
of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007)
and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97)
with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means
indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux,
coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar
energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic
fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double
peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric
intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities
in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within
± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial
solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude
belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were
almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally,
the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very
weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°. 相似文献
6.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,243(2):205-217
For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of
a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles.
However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity
in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the
present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted
Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum
may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor
method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever
may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23. 相似文献
7.
Spotless days (i.e., days when no sunspots are observed on the Sun) occur during the interval between the declining phase of the old sunspot
cycle and the rising phase of the new sunspot cycle, being greatest in number and of longest continuous length near a new
cycle minimum. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the longest spotless segment (LSS) and examine its statistical relation
to selected characteristic points in the sunspot time series (STS), such as the occurrences of first spotless day and sunspot
maximum. The analysis has revealed statistically significant relations that appear to be of predictive value. For example,
for Cycle 24 the last spotless day during its rising phase should be about August 2012 (± 9.1 months), the daily maximum sunspot
number should be about 227 (± 50; occurring about January 2014±9.5 months), and the maximum Gaussian smoothed sunspot number
should be about 87 (± 25; occurring about July 2014). Using the Gaussian-filtered values, slightly earlier dates of August
2011 and March 2013 are indicated for the last spotless day and sunspot maximum for Cycle 24, respectively. 相似文献
8.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,233(1):107-115
This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23
and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase
from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in
1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000
was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic
flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45∘–90∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0∘–45∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not
match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases
similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001
for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas
ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from
high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching
with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough)
larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot
activity. 相似文献
9.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,245(2):415-421
The occurrence of double peaks near the maximum of sunspot activity was first emphasized by Gnevyshev (Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967) for the peak years of solar cycle 19 (1954 – 1964). In the present analysis, it is shown that double peaks in sunspot numbers
were clearly visible in solar latitudes 10 – 30° N but almost absent in the southern latitudes, where some single peaks were
observed out of phase by several months from any of the peaks in the northern latitudes. The spacing between the double peaks
increased from higher to lower northern latitudes, hinting at latitudinal migration. In the next cycle 20 (1965 – 1976), which
was of about half the strength of cycle 19, no clear-cut double peaks were seen, and the prominent peak in the early part
of 1967 in the northern latitudes was seen a few months later in the southern latitudes. A direct relationship of Gnevyshev
peaks with changes in the solar polar magnetic fields seems to be dubious. The commencements do not match. 相似文献
10.
Robert A. Greenkorn 《Solar physics》2009,255(2):301-323
A nonlinear analysis of the daily sunspot number for each of cycles 10 to 23 is used to indicate whether the convective turbulence
is stochastic or chaotic. There is a short review of recent papers considering sunspot statistics and solar activity cycles.
The differences in the three possible regimes – deterministic laminar flow, chaotic flow, and stochastic flow – are discussed.
The length of data sets necessary to analyze the regimes is investigated. Chaos is described and a chronology of recent results
that utilize chaos and fractals to analyze sunspot numbers follows. The parameters necessary to describe chaos – time lag,
phase space, embedding dimension, local dimension, correlation dimension, and the Lyapunov exponents – are determined for
the attractor for each cycle. Assuming the laminar regime is unlikely if chaos is not indicated in a cycle by the calculations,
the regime must be stochastic. The sunspot numbers in each of cycles 10 to 19 indicate stochastic behavior. There is a transition
from stochastic to chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers in cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23. These changes in cycles 20 – 23 may
indicate a change in the scale of turbulence in the convection zone that could result in a change in the convective heat transfer
and a change in the size of the convection region for these four cycles. 相似文献
11.
J. Javaraiah 《Solar physics》2011,270(2):463-483
Using the combined Greenwich (1874 – 1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977 – 2009) data on sunspot groups, we
study the long-term variations in the mean daily rates of growth and decay of sunspot groups. We find that the minimum and
the maximum values of the annually averaged daily mean growth rates are ≈ 52% day−1 and ≈ 183% day−1, respectively, whereas the corresponding values of the annually averaged daily mean decay rates are ≈ 21% day−1 and ≈ 44% day−1, respectively. The average value (over the period 1874 – 2009) of the growth rate is about 70% more than that of the decay
rate. The growth and the decay rates vary by about 35% and 13%, respectively, on a 60-year time scale. From the beginning
of Cycle 23 the growth rate is substantially decreased and near the end (2007 – 2008) the growth rate is lowest in the past
about 100 years. In the extended part of the declining phase of this cycle, the decay rate steeply increased and it is largest
in the beginning of the current Cycle 24. These unusual properties of the growth and the decay rates during Cycle 23 may be
related to cause of the very long declining phase of this cycle with the unusually deep and prolonged current minimum. A ≈ 11-year
periodicity in the growth and the decay rates is found to be highly latitude and time dependent and seems to exist mainly
in the 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere. The strength of the known approximate 33 – 44-year modulation
in the solar activity seems to be related to the north-south asymmetry in the growth rate. Decreasing and increasing trends
in the growth and the decay rates indicate that the next 2 – 3 solar cycles will be relatively weak. 相似文献
12.
We study variations of the lifetimes of high-ℓ solar p modes in the quiet and active Sun with the solar activity cycle. The lifetimes in the degree range ℓ=300 – 600 and ν=2.5 – 4.5 mHz were computed from SOHO/MDI data in an area including active regions and quiet Sun using the time – distance
technique. We applied our analysis to the data in four different phases of solar activity: 1996 (at minimum), 1998 (rising
phase), 2000 (at maximum), and 2003 (declining phase). The results from the area with active regions show that the lifetime
decreases as activity increases. The maximal lifetime variations are between solar minimum in 1996 and maximum in 2000; the
relative variation averaged over all ℓ values and frequencies is a decrease of about 13%. The lifetime reductions relative to 1996 are about 7% in 1998 and about
10% in 2003. The lifetime computed in the quiet region still decreases with solar activity, although the decrease is smaller.
On average, relative to 1996, the lifetime decrease is about 4% in 1998, 10% in 2000, and 8% in 2003. Thus, measured lifetime
increases when regions of high magnetic activity are avoided. Moreover, the lifetime computed in quiet regions also shows
variations with the activity cycle. 相似文献
13.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):355-367
The 12-month running means of the conventional sunspot number Rz, the sunspot group numbers (SGN) and the frequency of occurrence of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were examined for cycle
23 (1996 – 2006). For the whole disc, the SGN and Rz plots were almost identical. Hence, SGN could be used as a proxy for Rz, for which latitude data are not available. SGN values were used for 5° latitude belts 0° – 5°, 5° – 10°, 10° – 15°, 15° – 20°,
20° – 25°, 25° – 30° and > 30°, separately in each hemisphere north and south. Roughly, from latitudes 25° – 30° N to 20° – 25°
N, the peaks seem to have occurred later for lower latitudes, from latitudes 20° – 25° N to 15° – 20° N, the peaks are stagnant or occur slightly earlier, and then from latitudes 15° – 20° N to 0° – 5° N, the peaks seem to have occurred again later for lower latitudes. Thus, some latitudinal migration is suggested, clearly in the northern hemisphere, not very clearly
in the southern hemisphere, first to the equator in 1998, stagnant or slightly poleward in 1999, and then to the equator again
from 2000 onwards, the latter reminiscent of the Maunder butterfly diagrams. Similar plots for CME occurrence frequency also
showed multiple peaks (two or three) in almost all latitude belts, but the peaks were almost simultaneous at all latitudes,
indicating no latitudinal migration. For similar latitude belts, SGN and CME plots were dissimilar in almost all latitude
belts except 10° – 20° S. The CME plots had in general more peaks than the SGN plots, and the peaks of SGN often did not match
with those of CME. In the CME data, it was noticed that whereas the values declined from 2002 to 2003, there was no further
decline during 2003 – 2006 as one would have expected to occur during the declining phase of sunspots, where 2007 is almost
a year of sunspot minimum. An inquiry at GSFC-NASA revealed that the person who creates the preliminary list was changed in
2004 and the new person picks out more weak CMEs. Thus a subjectivity (overestimates after 2002) seems to be involved and
hence, values obtained before and during 2002 are not directly comparable to values recorded after 2002, except for CMEs with
widths exceeding 60°. 相似文献
14.
R.P. Kane 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(5):749-751
Sunspots have a major 11-year cycle, but the years near the maximum show two or more peaks called Gnevyshev peaks. It was noticed that in cycle 23, the double peaks in sunspot numbers are reflected in the electromagnetic radiations and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar atmosphere. But, in the interplanetary space, the ICMEs (interplanetary CMEs) show peaks not all coinciding with the peaks of sunspot numbers. Also, there are stream interaction regions (SIR), including co-rotating interaction regions (CIR), which evolve quite differently from sunspot numbers. In the geomagnetic indices, the peaks are related mainly to the peaks in SIRs, indicating that geomagnetic indices have no direct relationship with most of the phenomena at the Sun but are responding only to the interplanetary blobs due to SIRs, which are more predominant in the declining phase of sunspot activity. 相似文献
15.
The running cross-correlation coefficient between solar-cycle amplitudes and rise times at a certain cycle lag is found to
vary in time, when using the smoothed monthly-mean sunspot group numbers available for 1610 – 1995. It may be negative or
positive for different periods of time. The Waldmeier effect (in which the rise times decrease with amplitude) is also found
to be very weak for some cycles. This result represents an observational constraint on solar-dynamo models and can help us
better understand the long-term evolution of solar activity. 相似文献
16.
Based on the extended Greenwich – NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups, it is demonstrated that the parameters describing
the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and
the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of the SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of the SGZ shows
saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly
due to the expansion of the SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes
of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys.
179, 189, 1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups (“the Maunder butterfly diagram”) for the eighteenth and the first half of
the nineteenth centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations. 相似文献
17.
During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team
using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence
rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were
during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs
(17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections
(CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence
frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number.
When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the
occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average
duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs,
because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most
severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst
min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period. 相似文献
18.
K. J. Li 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):169-177
Five solar-activity indices – the monthly-mean sunspot numbers from January 1945 to March 2008, the monthly-mean sunspot areas
during the period of May 1874 to March 2008, the monthly numbers of sunspot groups from May 1874 to May 2008, the monthly-mean
flare indices from January 1966 to December 2006, and the numbers of solar filaments per Carrington rotation in the time interval
of solar rotations 876 to 1823 – have been used to show a systematic time delay between northern and southern hemispheric
solar activities in a cycle. It is found that solar activity does not occur synchronously in the northern and southern hemispheres,
and there is a systematic time lag or lead (phase shift) between northern and southern hemispheric solar activity in a cycle.
About an eight-cycle period is inferred to exist in such phase shifts. The activity on the Sun may be governed by two different
and coupled processes, not by a single process. 相似文献
19.
In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately
for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30
November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited
a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35
days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240
days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area
data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different
hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of
150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part
of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in
photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys.
438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations. 相似文献
20.
Results are presented from a study of various sunspot contrast parameters in broadband red (672.3 nm) Cartesian full-disk
digital images taken at the San Fernando Observatory (SFO) over eight years, 1997 – 2004, of the twenty-third sunspot cycle.
A subset of over 2700 red sunspots was analyzed and values of average and maximum sunspot contrast as well as maximum umbral
contrast were compared to various sunspot parameters. Average and maximum sunspot contrasts were found to be significantly
correlated with sunspot area (r
s=− 0.623 and r
s=− 0.714, respectively). Maximum umbral contrast was found to be significantly correlated with umbral area (r
s=− 0.535). These results are in agreement with the works of numerous other authors. No significant dependence was detected
between average contrast, maximum contrast, or maximum umbral contrast during the rising phase of the solar cycle (r
s=0.024, r
s=0.033, and r
s=0.064, respectively). During the decay phase, no significant correlation was found between average contrast or maximum contrast
and time (r
s=− 0.057 and r
s=0.009, respectively), with a weak dependence seen between maximum umbral contrast and cycle (r
s=0.102). 相似文献