共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Prediction and evaluation of pollution of the subsurface environment and planning remedial actions at existing sites may be useful for siting and designing new land-based waste treatment or disposal facilities. Most models used to make such predictions assume that the system behaves deterministically. A variety of factors, however, introduce uncertainty into the model predictions. The factors include model and pollution transport parameters and geometric uncertainty. The Monte Carlo technique is applied to evaluate the uncertainty, as illustrated by applying three analytical groundwater pollution transport models. The uncertainty analysis provides estimates of statistical reliability in model outputs of pollution concentration and arrival time. Examples are provided that demonstrate: (a) confidence limits around predicted values of concentration and arrival time can be obtained, (b) the selection of probability distributions for input parameters affects the output variables, and (c) the probability distribution of the output variables can be different from that of the input variables, even when all input parameters have the same probability distribution 相似文献
2.
J. Kemeny E. Mofya R. Kaunda P. Lever 《Fragblast: International Journal for Blasting and Fragmentation》2002,6(3):311-320
One of the fundamental requirements for being able to optimise blasting is the ability to predict fragmentation. An accurate blast fragmentation model allows a mine to adjust the fragmentation size for different downstream processes (mill processing versus leach, for instance), and to make real time adjustments in blasting parameters to account for changes in rock mass characteristics (hardness, fracture density, fracture orientation, etc). A number of blast fragmentation models have been developed in the past 40 years such as the Kuz-Ram model [1]. Fragmentation models have a limited usefulness at the present time because: 1. The input parameters are not the most useful for the engineer to determine and data for these parameters are not available throughout the rock mass. 2. Even if the input parameters are known, the models still do not consistently predict the correct fragmentation. This is because the models capture some but not all of the important rock and blast phenomena. 3. The models do not allow for 'tuning' at a specific mine site. This paper describes studies that are being conducted to improve blast fragmentation models. The Split image processing software is used for these studies [2, 3]. 相似文献
3.
Removal of LNAPL (oil) from an aquifer is described using a multiphase flow model. At the well boundary seepage face conditions are imposed. These conditions are implemented in a numerical model and withdrawal in a twodimensional domain is simulated for two different geometries of the oil lens and for varied values of the physical parameters. Assuming vertical equilibrium, the oil flow equation is reduced by vertical integration. The well boundary condition is approximated by imposing zero oil lens thickness. Similarity solutions of the reduced equations for the two geometries show good agreement with the numerical results in most cases. 相似文献
4.
David Toe Franck Bourrier Ignacio Olmedo Jean-Matthieu Monnet Frédéric Berger 《Landslides》2017,14(5):1603-1614
The objective of this research was to use numerical models based on mechanical approaches to improve the integration of the protective role of forests against rockfall into block propagation models. A model based on the discrete element method (DEM) was developed to take into account the complex mechanical processes involved during the impact of a block on a tree. This modelling approach requires the definition of many input parameters and cannot be directly integrated into block propagation models. A global sensitivity analysis identified the leading parameters of the block kinematics after impact (i.e. block energy reduction, trajectory changes, and rotational velocity): the impact velocity, the tree diameter, and the impact point horizontal location (i.e. eccentricity). Comparisons with the previous experimental and numerical studies of block impacts on trees demonstrated the applicability of the DEM model and showed some of the limitations of earlier approaches. Our sensitivity analysis highlights the significant influence of the impact velocity on the reduction of the block’s kinetic energy. Previous approaches usually also focus on parameters such as impact height, impact vertical incidence, and tree species, whose importance is only minor according to the present results. This suggests that the integration of forest effects into block propagation models could be both improved and simplified. The DEM model can also be used as an alternative to classical approaches for the integration of forest effects by directly coupling it with block propagation models. This direct coupling only requires the additional definition of the location and the diameter of each tree. Indeed, the input parameters related to the mechanical properties of the stem and the block/stem interaction in the DEM model can be set to average values because they are not leading parameters. The other input parameters are already defined or calculated in the block propagation model. 相似文献
5.
E. L. Zodrow 《Mathematical Geology》1976,8(4):395-412
This is the first application of minimum residuals (minres),a type of factor analysis, in the study of hypersthene minerals from a mafic norite formation at the Strathcona Mine near Sudbury, Ontario. Minres, because it yields highest communalities for some variables, is preferred to other types of factoring solutions including a common factor model with Chayes' null correlations as factor input. Oblique rotation of factors is rejected as a model for statistical and geochemical reasons. A five oxide-variable model that reasonably well determines hypersthene is reduced by minres to a two-factor model which is statistically significant. Because of the small number of variables in the analysis, it is difficult to interpret the isolated factors in terms of specific geologic processes. The factors, however, even if surrogate, are linked with substitution phenomena in the hypersthene. 相似文献
6.
Classification of slopes and prediction of factor of safety using differential evolution neural networks 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
Sarat Kumar Das Rajani Kanta Biswal N. Sivakugan Bitanjaya Das 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(1):201-210
Slope stability analysis is one of the most important problems in geotechnical engineering. The development in slope stability
analysis has followed the development in computational geotechnical engineering. This paper discusses the application of different
recently developed artificial neural network models to slope stability analysis based on the actual slope failure database
available in the literature. Different ANN models are developed to classify the slope as stable or unstable (failed) and to
predict the factor of safety. The developed ANN model is found to be efficient compared with other methods like support vector
machine and genetic programming available in literature. Prediction models are presented based on the developed ANN model
parameters. Different sensitivity analyses are made to identify the important input parameters. 相似文献
7.
A numerical approach to boundary layer fractionation: application to differentiation in natural magma systems 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
With few exceptions, geochemical models of igneous differentiation have assumed that crystals form homogeneously throughout the cooling magma chamber. This is in spite of field evidence and physical models suggesting for natural systems, that heat loss, and thus most crystallization, occurs primarily along the walls and roof of magma chambers. Such systems would produce aphyric, evolved composition lavas. Existing models of boundary layer crystal fractionation suggest that the products of such a process are significantly different from the products of homogeneous crystallization. To investigate this process further, we have developed a model using a numerical approach to boundary layer crystal fractionation based on new phase equilibria and trace element constraints. In addition to olivine, augite and plagioclase, this new model includes the ability to calculate the effects of oxide (magnetite and ilmenite), apatite and low-Ca pyroxene fractionation. This is critical if we are to effectively evaluate the geochemical signature of boundary layer fractionation. This is because the products of boundary layer fractionation are most different from homogeneous fractionation for high degrees of crystallization in the solidification zone. These are the same conditions where oxides, low-Ca pyroxene and apatite are saturated in most natural, differentiated mafic systems. The results of this model suggest that boundary layer fractionation can help to explain such phenomena as phantom crystallization, variation in incompatible element ratios, and the decoupling of major and trace element systematics. In addition, many of the geochemical patterns that we use to distinguish between the products of low pressure and high pressure differentiation are obscured by the fact that the liquid line of descent can be controlled by the removal of phases not in equilibrium with the entire magma chamber. 相似文献
8.
从岩石破碎机制分析出发,通过建立岩石破碎比功模态,确定破岩机具结构尺寸、岩石力学特性和破岩工艺三类对岩石破碎比功有影响的参数。引入模糊逻辑法,将上述参数作为模糊逻辑分析的输入变量,岩石破碎比功作为模糊逻辑分析的输出变量,建立用于预测岩石破碎比功的预测模型。将该模糊预测模型应用于某工程实例,通过对比模型所得结果与工程实践中的真实岩石破碎比功,该模型所得结果与工程实践中的真实值比较接近,预测模型设计合理,模糊推理规则能够表达工程实践,在给定输入变量的情况下,该模型可有效预测岩石破碎比功这一重要特征参数。 相似文献
9.
Pamela G. Doctor 《Engineering Geology》1989,26(4):411-429
Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high-level radioactive-waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses. 相似文献
10.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(2):101317
In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models. 相似文献
11.
Akira Murakami Takayuki Shuku Shin‐ichi Nishimura Kazunori Fujisawa Kazuyuki Nakamura 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(11):1642-1669
A computational method, incorporating the finite element model (FEM) into data assimilation using the particle filter, is presented for identifying elasto‐plastic material properties based on sequential measurements under the known changing traction boundary conditions to overcome some difficulties in identifying the parameters for elasto‐plastic problems from which the existing inverse analysis strategies have suffered. A soil–water coupled problem, which uses the elasto‐plastic constitutive model, is dealt with as the geotechnical application. Measured data on the settlement and the pore pressure are obtained from a synthetic FEM computation as the forward problem under the known parameters to be identified for both the element tests and the ground behavior during the embankment construction sequence. Parameter identification for elasto‐plastic problems, such as soil behavior, should be made by considering the measurements of deformation and/or pore pressure step by step from the initial stage of construction and throughout the deformation history under the changing traction boundary conditions because of the embankment or the excavation because the ground behavior is highly dependent on the loading history. Thus, it appears that sequential data assimilation techniques, such as the particle filter, are the preferable tools that can provide estimates of the state variables, that is, deformation, pore pressure, and unknown parameters, for the constitutive model in geotechnical practice. The present paper discusses the priority of the particle filter in its application to initial/boundary value problems for elasto‐plastic materials and demonstrates a couple of numerical examples. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Reflection of P and SV waves from free surface of an elastic solid with generalized thermodiffusion 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Baljeet Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》2005,114(2):159-168
The governing equations for generalized thermodiffusion in an elastic solid are solved. There exists three kinds of dilatational
waves and a Shear Vertical (SV) wave in a two-dimensional model of the solid. The reflection phenomena of P and SV waves from
free surface of an elastic solid with thermodiffusion is considered. The boundary conditions are solved to obtain a system
of four non-homogeneous equations for reflection coefficients. These reflection coefficients are found to depend upon the
angle of incidence of P and SV waves, thermodiffusion parameters and other material constants. The numerical values of modulus
of the reflection coefficients are presented graphically for different values of thermodiffusion parameters. The dimensional
velocities of various plane waves are also computed for different material constants. 相似文献
13.
Geothermal modeling is an important part of large-scale basin studies. Based on a new 3D structural model of the Northeast German basin, the present day regional geothermal field is modeled. Range and regional trend of the modeled temperature values are in agreement with the published data. Due to the high spatial resolution, the calculated temperature distribution provides additional information with respect to areas where no measured data is available. The results are used as input and boundary parameters for small-scale models of geothermal energy production. In general, in many regions not enough data is available to define all necessary physical or chemical parameters for modeling. In this context, data obtained from the large-scale model help to constrain unknown parameters. Subsequently, the small-scale model is used to simulate various production schemes focusing on enhanced predictions with respect to the possible lifetime of such installations. The simulation results also show the need for elaborated models if reliable predictions of the temperature evolution are required. 相似文献
14.
I. I. Mladenović-Ranisavljević S. A. Žerajić 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2018,15(3):665-674
The method of water quality index is widely used in evaluation of the surface water quality because of its capability to summarize a number of water quality parameters into one numeric value, along with defined scale of water quality range. The current investigation includes application of modified model for calculating water quality index values, generated using experimental data and literary models. Software was created using modular design. Fourteen physical, chemical and biological parameters representing water quality state along with the assigned weights were elected. Comparison between models generated based on Serbian and American models of water quality index was done. Selected parameters differ mutually in number of parameters used in calculation of index, as well as in values of the weighting factors. In order to enable an efficient water quality analysis and to reconcile the requirements of both Serbian and American model, two software solutions were generated and processed on the example of the water quality of the Danube River in Serbia. Danube water quality was assessed at seventeen measuring locations along the river flow. Index values obtained from the two generated software applications were compared with the results of the official Serbian online calculator. Water quality determined using new generated models shows stricter approach and one class lower water quality compared to the existing Serbian model. Therefore, modular and open-generated simulation software is of great significance for the comparison and testing of different water quality models, not just those two shown in this study. 相似文献
15.
岩石爆破损伤模型的比选与改进 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
归纳了目前应用较为广泛的爆破损伤模型关于损伤变量的定义方法,基于FORTRAN与LS-DYNA自定义接口,将5种典型的爆破损伤模型成功导入LS-DYNA。根据具体的工程实例,对5种爆破损伤模型计算的精确性进行了对比计算和验证。结果表明,KUS模型与RFPA模型对应的结果与实测值更接近。选取计算结果较为准确的KUS模型进行改进,考虑压缩损伤,并修正了宏观弹性常数的确定方法,建立了拉压损伤模型,并对该模型的计算精确性进行验证,结果表明,该拉压损伤模型可以更好地定量描述岩体爆破损伤范围。 相似文献
16.
This study first develops a database containing 56 measured facing tensile forces from instrumented soil nail walls during or at completion of construction. Based on the compiled database, the accuracies of both default and modified federal highway administration (FHWA) simplified models for estimation of short-term facing tensile forces are evaluated. Here, accuracy is defined by the model bias computed as the ratio of measured to predicted facing tensile force. The analysis results show that predictions are highly conservative and highly dispersive using the default model, and moderately conservative and medium dispersive using the modified model. Moreover, the prediction accuracy is statistically correlated with magnitudes of the computed facing tensile forces and several model input parameters. An out-of-sample approach is used to develop and validate a recalibrated FHWA model which is then demonstrated to have least empirical constants but best accuracy compared to the default and modified models. The biases for the three models are characterized as lognormal random variables. An example of reliability-based analysis for facing flexure limit state is illustrated to both elaborate the application and highlight the benefit of using the recalibrated model for design practice from the perspective of cost-effectiveness.
相似文献17.
通过野外观察,结合薄片、铸体薄片等手段研究,发现海拉尔盆地呼伦湖凹陷西界上库力组火山通道相次火山亚相的柱状节理流纹岩和喷溢相上部亚相的球粒流纹岩中发育两种不同结构的球粒,两种球粒均形成于高的过冷却动力学效应下。柱状节理流纹岩中的球粒肉眼不可见,球粒直径小于0. 2 mm,球粒中心发育结晶核,组成球粒的纤维体多为隐晶质。条带状球粒流纹岩中的球粒在野外露头上醒目,圆形、椭圆形特征明显,球粒直径在0. 5～2 mm之间,均匀分布,结晶核不明显,组成球粒的纤维体为霏细质。本文认为导致这两种球粒结构差异性的主要原因是受熔浆过冷度大小的影响,柱状节理流纹岩过冷度较条带状球粒流纹岩大,因此成核速率高,成核密度大,球粒直径小,排列紧密,条带状球粒流纹岩较之相反。同时,流纹质熔浆的均质性程度影响了球粒间孔的充填特征。此外,研究发现,球粒间孔的发育程度和球粒形态直接相关。柱状节理流纹岩基质中的球粒结构紧密排列,球粒受相互生长制约呈不规则状,由于柱状节理本身由十分致密的球粒构成,储集空间不发育,因此不含油。由于条带状球粒流纹岩的球粒排列相对疏松,孔隙大量发育,可能含有丰富的油气,储集空间主要类型为球粒间孔和球粒溶蚀孔。 相似文献
18.
将偏最小二乘回归（PLS）与神经网络（NN）耦合，建立了储层参数预报模型。利用偏最小二乘对影响储层参数的诸多因素进行分析，提取对因变量影响强的成分，从而克服了变量间的多重相关性问题，降低了神经网络的输入维数；同时，利用神经网络建模可以较好地解决非线性的储层参数预测问题。计算实例表明，本耦合模型的拟合和预报精度优于独立使用神经网络模型的精度。 相似文献
19.
In earth and environmental sciences applications, uncertainty analysis regarding the outputs of models whose parameters are spatially varying (or spatially distributed) is often performed in a Monte Carlo framework. In this context, alternative realizations of the spatial distribution of model inputs, typically conditioned to reproduce attribute values at locations where measurements are obtained, are generated via geostatistical simulation using simple random (SR) sampling. The environmental model under consideration is then evaluated using each of these realizations as a plausible input, in order to construct a distribution of plausible model outputs for uncertainty analysis purposes. In hydrogeological investigations, for example, conditional simulations of saturated hydraulic conductivity are used as input to physically-based simulators of flow and transport to evaluate the associated uncertainty in the spatial distribution of solute concentration. Realistic uncertainty analysis via SR sampling, however, requires a large number of simulated attribute realizations for the model inputs in order to yield a representative distribution of model outputs; this often hinders the application of uncertainty analysis due to the computational expense of evaluating complex environmental models. Stratified sampling methods, including variants of Latin hypercube sampling, constitute more efficient sampling aternatives, often resulting in a more representative distribution of model outputs (e.g., solute concentration) with fewer model input realizations (e.g., hydraulic conductivity), thus reducing the computational cost of uncertainty analysis. The application of stratified and Latin hypercube sampling in a geostatistical simulation context, however, is not widespread, and, apart from a few exceptions, has been limited to the unconditional simulation case. This paper proposes methodological modifications for adopting existing methods for stratified sampling (including Latin hypercube sampling), employed to date in an unconditional geostatistical simulation context, for the purpose of efficient conditional simulation of Gaussian random fields. The proposed conditional simulation methods are compared to traditional geostatistical simulation, based on SR sampling, in the context of a hydrogeological flow and transport model via a synthetic case study. The results indicate that stratified sampling methods (including Latin hypercube sampling) are more efficient than SR, overall reproducing to a similar extent statistics of the conductivity (and subsequently concentration) fields, yet with smaller sampling variability. These findings suggest that the proposed efficient conditional sampling methods could contribute to the wider application of uncertainty analysis in spatially distributed environmental models using geostatistical simulation. 相似文献
20.
Fernando Paz 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1989,7(1):53-58
Summary In this paper a general framework is discussed for assessing the seismicity and the seismic risk using a couple-information model. A deterministic model is used to define the different types of information that can represent the input variables of the model; that is, constants, random, fuzzy, linguistic, hybrid and chaotic variables. Other types of models are also discussed having information similar to the input variables, and a way is presented to implement them for assessing risk. 相似文献