共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
应用1951-2001年ENSO特征指数(NINO1+2、NINO3、NINO4、NINO3.4、SOI)和1973-1998年南极海冰北界范围以及1950-2001年SODA海洋温度资料,分析探讨了ENSO循环过程与南极海冰之间的关系,研究了南大洋和太平洋海表温度与南极海冰之间的内在联系。结果表明,南极海冰变化与ENSO循环过程存在一定联系,特别是东南极海冰的变化与ENSO循环过程较为密切。这种遥相关关系表明,ENSO循环过程不仅与热带海洋自身的海 气相互作用存在密切关系,而且与南极海冰之间也存在一定的联系。当东南极海冰范围出现异常增大和减小时,在时滞一年之后,NINO循环指数将出现减弱和加强,而南方涛动指数将出现加强和减弱。这种相关关系的机制是通过大洋环流这一载体将异常海温向北输送来实现的。南极海冰范围的异常增加或减少,会直接影响南极绕极流的冷暖结构进而影响经向水体输送的异常,从而导致热带和副热带太平洋上层海温场的异常变化,对ElNino和LaNina事件的发生起到推动作用。 相似文献
2.
Dewan Abdul Quadir Madan L. Shrestha Tariq Masood Ali Khan Nazlee Ferdousi Mizanur Rahman Abdul Mannan 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):561-584
The inter-annual variation and linear trends of the surface air temperature in the regions in and around the Bay of Bengal have been studied using the time series data of monthly and annual mean temperature for 20–40 years period within 1951–1990. The study area extends from Pusma Camp of Nepal in the north and Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia in the south and between 80--100 ° E. The annual variation of temperature has also been studied using the mean monthly temperature for the variable time frames 1961–1975, 1976–1990 and 1961–1990. The trend of temperature has been analyzed using linear regression technique with the data from 1961–1990, which showed that the warming trend is dominant over the study areas except for a few stations. It has been found that Nepal shows predominant warming trends. Bangladesh and the adjacent areas of India and the northern part of Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Bangladesh coast have shown strong warming trends of the annual temperature with maximum at Dhaka (0.037 °C/year). The near equatorial zone, i.e., southern India, Sri Lanka and part of Thailand and Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur) shows warming trends in the annual mean temperature with strong warming at Pamban and Anuradhapura (around 0.04 °C/year). The cooling trends have been observed at a few stations including Port Blair, Yangoon and Cuttack. Further analysis shows the presence of prominent ENSO scale of variations with time period 4–7 years and 2–3 years for almost all the stations. The decadal mode with T >7 years is present in some data series. The results of the variations of temperature with respect to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show that SOI has some negative correlation with temperature for most of the stations except those in the extreme northeast. It has been found that positive anomaly of temperature has been observed for El Niño events and negative anomaly for the La Nina events. 相似文献
3.
ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)事件的发生会影响区域气候变化。通过对青海东部地区5个站点1959~2005年的降水、气温资料、干燥度和海表温度距平(SSTA)与南方涛动指数(SOI)的月序列进行相关性分析和周期性谱分析,探讨了区域气候变化与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明,1959~2005年青海省东部地区气候趋于暖干,并且冬春季变化趋势显著;暖事件的发生对该区域降水、气温及干燥度的变化影响较大,且气温对ENSO事件的响应要大于降水;ENSO事件对该区域的气候变化有两到三个月的影响期,EI Nino事件的发生对当月的影响较大,而La Nina事件的发生对该区域有两到三个月的持续影响期;降水距平及气温距平与ENSO事件存在短期相同的变化趋势,且该地区气候变化受南方涛动影响明显。 相似文献
4.
Tariq Masood Ali Khan Dewan Abdul Quadir Tad S. Murty Majajul Alam Sarker 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(2):549-560
The sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a veryimportant role in the genesis and maintenance of meteorological and oceanographic processessuch as monsoon depressions and subsequent floods, large-scale sea level fluctuationsand genesis of tropical cyclones. Many low lying coastal regions of South Asia are adjacentto river deltas and have large population. The dense population, poor economy and severalother socio-economic factors make these areas most vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is importantas the duration and intensity of SST provide the basis for studies related to climatic changescenario. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the recent SST trends in the coastalwaters of some cities, which lie on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The annual andinterannual variability has also been studied. The SST variations have then been linkedwith the El Nino and La Nina events.The NOAA-NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST fields from 1985-1998, created in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL), USA are used in this study. Here the quality of data is an important factor toobtain reliable estimates of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends and other related parameters.However, this is not possible with the conventional type data, due to low quality as wellas sparse data in the region. Though the satellite based SST climatologies have shorterobservation lengths, they can provide reliable estimates of recent SST variability overa large oceanic areas with sparse or no data.Increasing trend of SST is observed throughout all theseasons in the northern Arabian Sea extending from Oman to Karachi and Mumbai and furthersouth to Salalah and Colombo. However, in coastal islands stations further south ofIndia such as at Colombo the increment is not significant. Though the increasing trend in SSTduring winter is not significant, nevertheless it shows the increasing influence of coldspells on this Island. An interesting situation has been observed in the Bay of Bengal. On anaverage, increasing trends in the annual SST were observed in Visakhaputnam. But at thestations located in the northeastern part of Bay of Bengal, namely Hiron Point and Cox'sBazar reverse conditions are observed. In the Southern Bay of Bengal variations in SST isnot significant which reflects in the SST analysis of Chennai and Port Blair stations. Locationof these stations at lower latitudes (near by equator) probably is the reason for this insignificantchange. It has been found that the interannual mode of SST variations dominate the linear SSTtrends which is characterized by the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) scale cycle. 相似文献
5.
The decadal variation of lightning activity over Northeast India (NEI) from the year 2002 to 2011 is studied with the help of satellite-based lightning imaging sensor (LIS) data. An anomalous 56 % increase in lightning activity is observed in the year 2010 with respect to the previous years. To investigate the reason behind this increase, the LIS data are analyzed with several meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters. These parameters are convective sources of cloud ice, cloud top temperature, surface temperature, convective precipitation rate and total ice water content and convective available potential energy. On a synoptic scale, the period of anomalous lightning activity could be related to the development of an El Nino event at the middle of 2009 that broke down in the early months of the next year with a rapid transition to La Nina by August 2010. Analyses expose that El Nino Southern Oscillation might have diversely modified the local meteorological and cloud microphysical parameters. It comes out that this rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina condition could be the possible reason behind the dramatic increase in lightning activity, which was not previously documented over NEI. 相似文献
6.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of seven CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to simulate the observed rainfall characteristics over West Africa during the period of 1990–2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, interannual variability, 850 hPa specific humidity, and wind fields of the RCMs outputs were assessed over a number of spatial scales covering three climatically homogenous subregions (Guinea Coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and the entire West Africa domain. The ability of the RCMs to simulate the response to El Nino and La Nina events were further assessed. Results indicate that the RCMs captured the spatial pattern of rainfall and the three distinctive phases of the West African monsoon reasonably. It is worth noting that RCA and CRCM5 failed to distinctively reproduce the monsoon jump while CCLM, HIRHAM, and REMO largely overestimated the amount of the pre- and the post-monsoon rainfall. The analysis also showed significant biases in individual models depending on the subregion and season under consideration. These biases appear to be linked to the model’s failure to resolve convective processes and topography accurately. The majority of the RCMs used were consistent with the ground observation in capturing the dry (wet) conditions associated with the El Nino (La Nina) events. Statistical analysis conclusively revealed that the RCMs performance varies over the subregions and seasons, implying that no single model is best at all time. In general, REGCM3 was found to be the most outstanding of all the RCMs and is therefore recommended for use in rainfall assessment over West Africa. 相似文献
7.
北江天然径流量的变化特征及其影响因素 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
分析了最近45年来北江天然径流量的变化特征，并对其影响因素进行了分析，结果表明：北江天然年径流量具有阶段性特征，1984年后，发生明显变化，持续丰水和持续枯水时段开始变长，年际变化存在21年和11年的周期；锋面低槽形成大暴雨是北江主汛期径流量迅速增加的主要原因；大罗山、石坑崆是北江的两级迎水坡，其形成的多雨中心圈是北江径流量补充的主要来源；厄尔尼诺现象出现的次年北江年径流量普遍增大，拉尼娜现象出现的当年北江径流量普遍增大；太阳黑子的急剧变化，改变了地球的热力系统，对大气环流产生影响，这是太阳黑子影响流域径流量的一个主要原因。 相似文献
8.
Muhammad Mubashar Dogar Fred Kucharski Syed Azharuddin 《Journal of Earth System Science》2017,126(2):30
ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant impact over the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. ENSO-induced negative (positive) NAO-like response and associated changes over Southern Europe and North Africa get significantly strong following increased intensity of El Niño (La Niña) in the northern (southern) hemisphere in the boreal winter (summer) season. We further find that ENSO magnitude significantly impacts Hadley and Walker circulations. The positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) overall strengthens Hadley cell and a reverse is true for the La Niña phase. ENSO-induced strengthening and weakening of Hadley cell induces significant impact over South Asian and African ITCZ convective regions through modification of ITCZ/monsoon circulation system. 相似文献
9.
ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
近几年的一系列分析研究表明，ENSO与异常东亚冬季风之间有相互影响，持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风通过引起赤道西太平洋地区的西（东）风异常对El Niño/La Niña的发生起着重要作用；赤道太平洋次表层海温异常（SOTA）的年际变化（循环）与ENSO发生有密切关系；ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池，暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东太平洋，便导致El Niño/La Niña的爆发；在暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道东传的同时，有负（正）SOTA沿10°N和10°S纬度带向西传播，从而构成SOTA的循环；热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风。进而可以认为：ENSO实质上是主要由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。 相似文献
10.
Jimmy Byakatonda B P Parida Piet K Kenabatho D B Moalafhi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(2):25
Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana. 相似文献
11.
太平洋环流速度减慢的原因 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证，发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因，德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。这一综合检验结果给出以日食—厄尔尼诺系数预测厄尔尼诺事件的有效性和准确性。两年周期的太平洋海温振荡使日食与厄尔尼诺之间存在12～24个月的位相差。 相似文献
12.
ENSO事件对青藏高原古里雅冰芯中现代δ18O的影响 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
对１９５１～１９９２年青藏高原古里雅冰芯中δ＾１８Ｏ与Ｉ（南方涛动指数）,δ＾１８Ｏ与赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴ（海表面温度）的关系进行了分析。在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ年,无论是隆冬还是盛夏,古里雅冰芯中δ＾１８Ｏ均减小。表现为明显的降温,平均降温幅度分别为１．２℃和０．４５。在特强Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ年,平均降温幅度分别为２．０３℃和１．４６℃。在ＬａＮｉｎａ年,盛夏古里雅;冰芯中δ＾１８Ｏ增大,表现为明显的增温,平均 相似文献
13.
R P Kane 《Journal of Earth System Science》1989,98(3):223-235
Association of ENSO (El Nino/southern oscillation) events with annual rainfalls in S. America, Africa, India, Australia and
New Zealand was found to be poor except for India and Victoria. For these two regions the relationships were one-sided i.e.
most of the ENSO were associated with droughts; but many droughts were not associated with ENSO. for some rainfall series,
the relationships are significant and prominent periodicities existed in the long periodicity region. 相似文献
14.
对鄱阳湖流域内的赣州、宜春、南昌和庐山4个气象站近60年的年降水量序列进行小波分析,研究了鄱阳湖流域降水时间序列的周期性变化规律。结果表明,鄱阳湖流域年降水量存在两个明显的周期变化,分别为30～35a和12～15a,2011年正处在30～35a周期转化的节点上,未来30a鄱阳湖流域可能将进入降水偏少的周期;而12～15a周期尺度在2000年以前比较明显,2000年以后12～15a周期特征趋于消失。通过对ENSO指数的变化周期尺度的研究,发现厄尔尼诺现象的出现周期与鄱阳湖流域年降水量周期十分相似,两者具有很高的相关性。 相似文献
15.
Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country. 相似文献
16.
P. V. Joseph Anu Simon Venu G. Nair Aype Thomas 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(2):139-150
Time series of daily averaged rainfall of about 40 rain gauge stations of south Kerala, situated at the southern-most part
of peninsular India between latitudes about 8‡N and 10‡N were subjected to Wavelet Analysis to study the Intra Seasonal Oscillation
(ISO) in the rainfall and its inter-annual variability. Of the 128 days, 29th May to 3rd October of each of the 95 years 1901-1995
were analysed. We find that the period of ISO does not vary during a monsoon season in most of the years, but it has large
inter-annual variability in the range 23 to 64 days. Period-wise, the years cluster into two groups of ISO, the SHORT consisting
of periods 23, 27 and 32 days and the LONG with a single period of 64 days, both the sets at a significance level of 99%.
During the 95 years at this level of significance there are 44 years with SHORT and 20 years with LONG periods. 11 years have
no ISO even at the 90% level of significance.
We composited NCEP SST anomalies of the summer monsoon season June to September for two groups of years during the period
1965–1993. The first group is of 5 years with a LONG ISO period of 64 days for south Kerala rainfall at significance level
of 99% and the second group is of 12 years with SHORT ISO periods of 23, 27 and 32 days at the same level of significance.
The SST anomaly for the LONG (SHORT) ISO resembles that for an El Nino (La Nina). 相似文献
17.
ENSO对青藏铁路沿线气温和地温的影响及其预测 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
研究了天文因素对近500 a来厄尔尼诺事件的影响, 分析了近50 a来ENSO事件与青藏铁路沿线气温地温的关系. 结果表明: 年平均气温和年平均最高气温, 春季平均最高气温、夏季平均最低气温和秋季平均最低气温, 在El Nio年偏低; 而在La Nia年则偏高. 0 cm年平均最低地温、秋季平均最低地温和冬季平均最低地温, 在El Nio年偏低; 而在La Nia年则偏高. ENSO事件对从5 cm及其以下的地温没有明显影响. 厄尔尼诺事件有准60 a和准19 a周期, 其可能是对天体运动的响应. 相似文献
18.
Akio Kitoh 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(2):261-272
There is a close relationship between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (drought conditions over India accompany warm ENSO events and vice versa). However, recent observations suggest a weakening of this ENSO-monsoon relationship that may be linked to global warming. We report here an analysis of the ENSO-monsoon relationship within the framework of a 1000-year control simulation of the MRI-coupled general circulation model (GCM), MRI-CGCM2.2. An overall correlation between the June-July-August (JJA) Nino3.4 sea surface temperature and the JJA Indian monsoon rainfall is –0.39, with reasonable circulation characteristics associated with the modeled ENSO. The simulated ENSO-monsoon relationship reveals long-term variations, from –0.71 to +0.07, in moving 31-year windows. This modulation in the ENSO-monsoon relationship is associated with decadal variability of the climate system. 相似文献
19.
古里雅冰芯气候记录对ENSO事件的响应 总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6
ENSO现象是一个产生于大尺度海-气相互作用的全球事件, 它是影响全球中低纬度大部分地区气候年际变化的一个重要的因子. 通过高通滤波法、累积异常法以及非参数检验等方法, 对古里雅冰芯中所记录的气候信息与ENSO事件进行相关分析表明, 在厄尔尼诺年, 古里雅冰芯中记录的降水量显著减少, 但对于δ18O而言, 虽然也在厄尔尼诺年偏低, 但未达到显著性水平. 相似文献
20.
Subramaniam Moten 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(1):249-263
Monthly rainfall data averaged over a selected number of stations in peninsular Malaysia with a long record was subjected
to singular spectrum analysis to determine the different modes of fluctuations in the rainfall. The analysis highlights the
presence of fluctuations in the QBO time scale to a very long term time scale of 18–5 years which is possibly linked to lunar
tidal forcing. There is also evidence of the Malaysian rainfall responding to El-Nino Southern Oscillation. An oscillation
with a 7 to 10 year cycle is also evident. The annual cycle as a regular periodic oscillation is well established by the SSA. 相似文献