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1.
利用三点法-灰色组合模型预测铁路路基沉降   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
陈威  唐德燕  张届 《测绘科学》2015,40(7):37-40
针对三点法与灰色GM(1,1)模型在沉降预测中的优势与不足,该文结合组合模型的构建理念,提出误差平方和最小的三点法-灰色GM(1,1)组合模型的预测方法。最后通过在实验中分析相关系数和预测误差,将组和模型预测和单预测模型进行对比,结果表明该方法能较好用于某铁路客运专线路基的沉降预测,为相关研究提供参考。  相似文献   

2.
针对自回归(AR(p))预测模型定阶问题中回溯阶的不确定性和时变性,以及基于单一回溯阶预测方法的局限性和组合预测中的冗余信息等问题,该文提出了一种基于遗忘因子的变权组合定阶方法。利用冗余定理筛选基于多个回溯阶预测方法的有效信息,并利用遗忘因子实现了组合权重的时变性,克服了基于单一回溯阶预测模型稳健性欠缺、预测精度低等局限性,提高了预测能力。通过实例表明该算法具有高度的可靠性和可行性,为类似预测方法的定阶问题提供了研究思路。  相似文献   

3.
针对传统潮汐调和分析中计算复杂和观测数据需求较长的问题,该文提出基于标准时频变换理论的潮汐预测方法。潮汐中的调和成分在其标准时频谱中可以自动显示,并且运用无为方法可以将其直接提取而无须逆变换。在不参考潮汐表的情况下,该文处理了半年的观测数据,提取了主要的调和分潮来进行重构和预测。结果表明,无为方法在潮汐的短期预测中有着较高精度和较小计算量。多次运用无为方法提取,在一定程度上可以抑制多分量信号在时频变换谱中的边缘效应,并得到有利于预测的即时调和信息。  相似文献   

4.
一阶有效度组合预测模型只考虑了精度的均值,而事实上在进行预测时,还要考虑预测精度的方差对预测方法有效性的影响.针对简单的单目标有效度模型在沉降变形预测应用中的不足,文章提出采用基于均值和方差的多目标有效性的二阶有效度组合预测模型方法,对建筑物沉降变形进行预测研究,计算实例表明,该模型预测精度高,简单实用,能够有效应用于建筑物沉降变形的预测.  相似文献   

5.
小波分析和奇异谱分析都可以作为处理含有噪声数据的方法,这两种去噪方式都可以消除数据中的噪声。基于两种数据处理方法,RBF神经网络预测隧道地表沉降数据的组合预测比单个模型的预测精度高,可获得更好的预测效果,为隧道监测安全提供可靠的参考。  相似文献   

6.
利用时间序列分析方法中的二次移动平均法提取出沉降监测序列中的趋势项,并在此基础上建立固定维数的动态GM(1,1)灰色模型进行沉降预测,同时利用Kalman滤波方法进行沉降预测,结合实际算例结果表明,这两种模型均能够较好地进行预测,证明了这两种预测模型均具有一定的可行性和有效性,并对两种预测模型在沉降监测预报中的应用进行了比较和分析。  相似文献   

7.
以趋势曲线预测模型中的多项式模型和指数模型为基础,基于熵权法建立组合预测模型,就其建模理论和计算流程进行系统分析,并对某滑坡体进行预测。结果表明,文中组合方法相对于其它组合方法而言,理论简单,能够有效地反映滑坡体的变化规律,且提高了拟合预测精度,在预测工作中具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

8.
在一般滑坡区域危险性预测方法的基础上,考虑动态预测,添加了降雨、蓄水水位变化、植被三种动态因素对于滑坡的作用,并以三峡库区中的重庆市涪陵区为例将动态预测方法加以实现。  相似文献   

9.
灰色预测理论在建筑物沉降中的应用研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
简要介绍灰色预测理论,并结合GM(1,1)模型介绍灰色预测在变形监测中的理论方法。以吉林市世纪广场北侧挡水墙为例,分析GM(1,1)模型在变形监测中的精度和可行性,以及特殊情况。  相似文献   

10.
明祖涛  刘军  夏力  黄文华 《测绘科学》2015,40(4):137-140
针对目前灰色模型在高速铁路沉降预测中存在的不足之处,该文提出了一种通过改善原始数据序列的光滑度来提高灰色模型预测精度的方法,并结合实例,验证了改进灰色模型在高速铁路沉降预测中的可行性,为今后高速铁路的沉降预测评估提供了更多的参考和借鉴。  相似文献   

11.
This paper evaluates the accuracy of triangulated irregular networks (TINs) and lattices in ARC/INFO. The results of an empirical comparison of the two models over two selected topographic sites are presented. Both vector and raster data were used to build the models. Three pairs of models were constructed based on 1,600, 4,000, and 9,000 sample points for the study area of the State Botanical Garden of Athens, Georgia, and 400, 800, and 1,600 sample points for the study area of Lake Lucerne of Wisconsin. The two models were assessed based on the same number of input sample points. Overall, TINs performed better than lattices. The quality of lattices decreased more dramatically than that of TINs when the number of sample points used for the construction of the models decreased. With an increase in the number of sample points used, the difference in performance between the two models decreased. The results of the evaluation directly depend on the comparison criteria and modeling algorithms. The evaluation is slightly sensitive to test indices used and the distribution of test points. The spatial pattern of residuals on spot heights was quite different from that on randomly selected test points. Users should choose models carefully based on the purpose of their application, the accuracy required, and the computer resources that are available.  相似文献   

12.
针对欧洲中程天气预报中心实时大气数据中由于水平及垂直分辨率变化所引起的大气压跳跃,利用再分析大气数据(ERA-Interim)及去平滑球谐分析方法计算重力恢复与气候实验卫星(gravity recovery and climate experiment,GRACE)大气去混频模型,从谱域、空域角度及利用主成分分析方法比较其与标准大气与海洋去混频模型的差距,并采用星间距离变率残差作为标准衡量两种模型的优劣。结果表明:两种模型之间精度相近,用于计算时变重力场模型时其影响可忽略,但在用于计算下一代卫星重力场模型时,需考虑其影响。  相似文献   

13.
介绍了用差分算子和时间序列分析法建立数字化过程随机误差估计模型中的粗差探测方法和抗差估计方案。  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

It has been well established that neural networks provide a reasonable and powerful alternative to conventional classifiers. During the past few years there has been a large and energetic upswing in research efforts aimed at synthesizing fuzzy logic with neural networks. This combination of fuzzy logic and neural networks seems natural because two approaches generally attack the design of “intelligent” systems from quite different angles. Neural networks provide algorithms for learning, classification, and optimization whereas fuzzy logic deals with issues such as reasoning on a higher (semantic or linguistic) level. Consequently the two technologies complement each other. In this paper we propose two novel fuzzy‐neural network models for supervised learning. The first model consists of three layers, and the second model consists of four layers. In both models, the first two layers implement fuzzy membership functions and the remaining layers implement the inference engine. Both models use the gradient decent technique for learning. As an illustration, we have analyzed two Thematic mapper images using these models. Results are presented in the paper.  相似文献   

15.
All conventional Kalman filtering methods depend to a great extent on dynamic models for describing the motion state of vehicle. However, low-cost GPS navigation systems do not provide velocity and acceleration measurements to construct dynamic models. Therefore, it is rather difficult to establish reasonable dynamic models. A windowing-recursive approach (WRA) which employs previous positions to predict the current position is proposed, and the transition matrix is modeled for transforming the previous positions to the current one. Two typical transition matrices are constructed by numerical polynomial fitting and extrapolation. A real vehicular GPS experiment is carried out to demonstrate the WRA performances in two relative positioning scenarios. The data are processed by the least squares approach and by WRA using the two developed transition matrices. The results show that the WRA performed excellently in a high sampling rate data. In case of a lower sampling rate, higher-order polynomial fitting and extrapolation models work better than lower-order models for a given window. In addition, the extrapolation models can alleviate the computation burdens significantly relative to the polynomial fitting models.  相似文献   

16.
根据随机介质理论可以导出开采引起的地表动态变形表达式。本文利用该式建立了适合动态数据处理的两种滤波模型,并把变形表达式中各参数扩充为滤波模型中的状态向量同时进行估计。两种模型的动态预报精度均高于传统方法,其中自适应模型更能明显改善预报精度。  相似文献   

17.
Landslides susceptibility maps were constructed in the Pyeong-Chang area, Korea, using the Random Forest and Boosted Tree models. Landslide locations were randomly selected in a 50/50 ratio for training and validation of the models. Seventeen landslide-related factors were extracted and constructed in a spatial database. The relationships between the observed landslide locations and these factors were identified by using the two models. The models were used to generate a landslide susceptibility map and the importance of the factors was calculated. Finally, the landslide susceptibility maps were validated. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were generated. For the Random Forest model, the validation accuracy in regression and classification algorithms showed 79.34 and 79.18%, respectively, and for the Boosted Tree model, these were 84.87 and 85.98%, respectively. The two models showed satisfactory accuracies, and the Boosted Tree model showed better results than the Random Forest model.  相似文献   

18.
人卫激光测距望远镜系统的指向修正   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
利用实测数据分析了人卫激光测距望远镜系统常用的两种指向修正模型(球谐函数模型与Mount Strom lo支架模型)的精度和稳定性。结果表明,两种模型均能达到较好的拟合精度,但Mount Strom lo支架模型系数间大多不相关,其稳定性明显优于球谐函数模型。  相似文献   

19.
地铁变形监测中曲线拟合与自回归模型的综合应用   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
曲线拟合与自回归是变形监测数据分析的常用方法。本文首先给出曲线拟合和自回归模型的模型形式以及模型正确性的检验方法,然后结合广州某地铁的部分实际监测资料,综合使用两种模型进行变形曲线的拟合与分析,结果表明:该综合模型对变形数据的处理有着显著的优越性。  相似文献   

20.
介绍了基于传统模型和UofC模型的两种精密单点定位算法;利用自主开发的精密单点定位软件实现了这两种算法。为了比较两种精密单点定位模型的动态定位精度、收敛时间以及解算速度,收集了船载和机载的动态GPS观测数据进行解算实验。实验结果表明:两种模型的动态定位精度和收敛时间相当,传统模型的解算速度约为UofC模型的2倍。  相似文献   

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