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A. Henderson-Sellers 《Climatic change》1993,25(3-4):203-224
Climatic impact assessment is generally conducted by reference to numerical models, from which most estimates of climatic change are derived, and to the policy developers, by whom the impact assessments are demanded. The propagation of estimates derived from numerical climate model predictions of greenhouse-induced climate change through impact models into policy advice is a precariously uncertain process which compounds the considerable uncertainties already inherent in policy development. Clear statements of scientific confidence in the greenhouse phenomenon in the mid-1980s prompted demands for policy, and hence for policy advice. In Australia, as in many other countries, public and political awareness of the possibility of greenhouse-induced climatic change increased. These developments led to the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); to the Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in June 1992; and to the review of the World Climate Programme in April 1993. This special issue ofClimatic Change illustrates some aspects of the difficulties surrounding projections of climatic impacts at a national scale where policy development almost always occurs under conditions of uncertainty. It may be valuable to identify uncertainty issues which could benefit from additional research and also sensitive points in the policy development process at which uncertainty can be used and abused. In this paper, the role of uncertainty in the greenhouse debate is reviewed from the perspective of a natural scientist working in a developed country. The aim is to offer a framework for the rest of this special issue ofClimatic Change. Uncertainty is by no means the only factor which influences views on climate change but increased understanding and more informed debate of all aspects of the uncertainties relating greenhouse-induced climatic change to policy development and implementation would be beneficial. 相似文献
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Stacy Rosenberg Arnold Vedlitz Deborah F. Cowman Sammy Zahran 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):311-329
Climate scientists have played a significant role in investigating global climate change. In the USA, a debate has swirled about whether a consensus on climate change exists among reputable scientists and this has entered the policy process. In order to better understand the views of US climate scientists, we conducted an empirical survey of US climate scientists (N?=?468) in 2005, and compared the results with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science report and policy summaries. Our results reveal that survey respondents generally agree about the nature, causes, and consequences of climate change, and are in agreement with IPCC findings. We also found that there is strong support for a variety of policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
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The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since the First Assessment Report, have involved
calibrated uncertainty language and other methods aimed towards clear communication of the degree of certainty in findings
of the assessment process. There has been a continuing tradition of iterative improvement of the treatment of uncertainties
in these assessments. Here we consider the motivations for the most recent revision of the uncertainties guidance provided
to author teams of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). We first review the history of usage of calibrated language in IPCC
Assessment Reports, along with the frameworks for treatment of uncertainties that have been provided to IPCC author teams.
Our primary focus is the interpretation and application of the guidance provided to author teams in the Fourth Assessment
Report, with analysis of the successes and challenges in the application of this guidance and approaches taken in usage of
its calibrated uncertainty language. We discuss the ways in which the AR5 Guidance Note attempts to refine the calibrated
uncertainty metrics and formalize their interrelationships to improve the consistency of treatment of uncertainties across
the Working Group contributions. 相似文献
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The long-standing academic and public debate on economic growth, prosperity and environmental sustainability has recently gained new momentum. It lacks, however, a broad perspective on public opinion. Prior opinion surveys typically offered a simple dichotomous choice between growth and environmental protection. This study examines public beliefs and attitudes about a wider range of aspects of the growth debate. To this end, we conducted an online questionnaire survey including a country-wide, representative sample of 1008 Spanish citizens. Using factor analysis, we identify six distinct dimensions of public attitudes, referred to as: prosperity with growth; environmental limits to growth; general optimism; wrong priority; overrated GDP; and governmental control. We further analyze several specific questions associated with the growth debate, such as those concerning the desired GDP growth rate, the preferred growth-environment position, and beliefs about, as well as reasons for, a possible end or continuation of growth. We find that most respondents favor GDP growth rates of more than 3%. A majority views growth and environmental sustainability as compatible (green growth), while about one-third prefers either ignoring growth as a policy aim (agrowth), or stopping it altogether (degrowth). Only very few people want growth unconditionally (growth-at-all-costs). About one-third of the respondents believe that growth may be never-ending. We examine how support for or disagreement with different statements on growth are related to each other, as well as how they are influenced by socio-demographic, knowledge and ideology/values variables. Overall, our findings can inform public debates about the growth paradigm and its potential alternatives by providing a more nuanced understanding of public opinion. We make suggestions for future research, including modifying poll questions on growth and environment through offering a more diverse set of response options. 相似文献
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No consensus on consensus: the challenge of finding a universal approach to measuring and mapping ensemble consistency in GCM projections 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Communicating information about consistency in projections is crucial to the successful understanding, interpretation and appropriate application of information from climate models about future climate and its uncertainties. However, mapping the consistency of model projections in such a way that this information is communicated clearly remains a challenge that several recently published papers have sought to address in the run up to the IPCC AR5. We highlight that three remaining issues have not been fully addressed by the literature to date. Allen and Ingram (Nature 419:224, 2002) While additional information about regions where projected changes in rainfall are not ‘statistically significant’ can provide useful information for policy, the spatial scale at which changes are assessed has a substantial impact on the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the detectability of changes. We demonstrate that by spatially smoothing the model projections we can provide more information about the nature of the signal for larger regions of the world. Christensen et al. (2007) Combining information about magnitude, consistency and statistical significance of projected changes in a single map can cause reduced legibility. We demonstrate the difficulty in finding a ‘universal’ method suitable for a wide range of audiences DEFRA (2012) We highlight that regions where projected changes in average rainfall are not statistically significant, changes in variability may still cause significant impacts. We stress the need to communicate this effectively in order to avoid mis-leading users. Finally, we comment on regions of the world where messages for users of climate information about ensemble consistency have changed since AR4, noting that these changes are due largely to changes in the methods of measuring consistency rather than any discernable differences between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. 相似文献
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Angelo Rubino 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):473-479
Based on issues recently raised on the future of climate science, I present here a critical discussion which embraces the crucial aspects of the communication between climate scientists and laypersons, of the role confusing statements may exert on possible advancements in climate research, and of scientific priorities in climate science. I start distinguishing between different applications of climate models and identifying confusing uses of the words ??prediction?? and ??projection?? in recent discussions on climate modeling. Numerical models like those used in climate simulations are not assimilable to truly theories, nor can obtained results be considered as truly experimental evidences. Hence, it is hard to envisage the feasibility of crucial experiments through climate models. Increasing model resolution and complexity, although undoubtedly helpful for many applications related to a deeper understanding of the complex climate system and to substantial improvement of short-term forecasts, is not destined to change this fundamental limitation, to tackle the impossibility of predicting prominent climate forcings and to facilitate result comparisons against observations. Finally, as an example describing possible alternative resource allocations, I propose to devote more energy to strengthen the observational part of climate research, to focus on midterm forecasts, and to implement a new employment policy for climate scientists. In particular, through an increased and truly global in situ and remote sensing climate observing network, crucial experiments could emerge to challenge the fundamental basis of the conjecture of a great anthropogenic climate change, which, as known, is largely based on high climate sensitivities simulated by numerical models. 相似文献
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Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jurandir Zullo Jr. Hilton Silveira Pinto Eduardo Delgado Assad Ana Maria Heuminski de ??vila 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):535-548
Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina. 相似文献
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Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting
understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers.
However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that “the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often
applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly,
that a substantive finding was being presented.” Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty
in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments. 相似文献
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A. Henderson-Sellers 《Climatic change》1990,17(1):69-96
During 1987 and 1988 in Australia there have been two national meetings on the greenhouse effect and a campaign designed to increase public awareness. A study of the backgrounds, level of comprehension and attitudes of attendees at two state Greenhouse-88 meetings has been undertaken by means of a questionnaire survey and a set of personal interviews. Two crucial caveats pertain: (1) some of the questions reflect the prejudices of the author who is an atmospheric scientist and much of the interpretation is similarly tainted and (2) the respondents comprise a small, self-selected and probably highly motivated group. All the ensuing results should be viewed in the context of these caveats.Over 97% of the respondents believe that action should be taken now to alleviate or mitigate the effects of increased greenhouse gases. Despite the fact that the majority of the 321 respondents are professional people (73%) and that over 53% have tertiary level educational qualifications, there was a failure to grasp some fundamental issues. For example, only 120 (37%) correctly recognized that N2 is not a greenhouse agent whilst also agreeing that CO2, CH4 and CFCs are greenhouse agents. On the other hand, the respondents generally demanded a relatively low level of confidence (50% to 70% certainty) about the greenhouse issue from scientists before action is taken. Sixty-four percent believe that life will be worse for them and/or their children in Australia in Greenhouse 2025 with the youngest age range being the second most pessimistic group about the future.Relatively little interest was shown in the possibility of obtaining more information on topics that interest climatic scientists such as the validity of measured temperature trends and inadequacies/errors in climate models but more information was desired on the social and economic implication and, interestingly, on the scientific background to the issues. Overall, teachers are perceived as trying to increase understanding; whereas politicians, multinational corporations, the media and some extreme environmentalists are perceived as often attempting to deceive intentionally. Scientists are seen as neither especially malevolent nor benign. A possible conclusion which might be drawn is that by attempting to simplify issues for public debate, scientists may significantly reduce, or even remove entirely, any chance of re-association of connected issues by members of the public. Perhaps more importantly, scientists need to recognize and learn to use the knowledge that the public may have the right views for the wrong reasons. 相似文献
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Kristie L. Ebi 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):693-700
The Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties describes a process for consistently evaluating and communicating levels of certainty in findings. The process begins with
an assessment of the scientific evidence and agreement supporting a finding, where evidence is defined as including mechanistic
understanding, theory, data, models, and expert judgment. The appropriateness of categorizing theory as one line of evidence
varies by scientific discipline; for the natural and social sciences, developing theory and collecting data are different
steps in the scientific method. Further, decision-makers often find it valuable for scientists to differentiate situations
where a theory is generally agreed but for which supporting data are limited, from situations where empirical data lack an
explanatory theory. The paper describes the approach used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) for assessing
the relative robustness of a theory separately from the strength and quality of its supporting evidence, and then developing
consensus statements of whether an agent is a human carcinogenic. Although the IARC and IPCC processes are very similar, the
IARC process also differs by combining theory, evidence, and agreement as equal partners in a limited set of standardized
categories of confidence. Incorporating aspects of the IARC approach into the IPCC guidance could improve the evaluation and
communication of theory, evidence, and agreement in future versions of the uncertainty guidance. 相似文献
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Timothy J. Garrett 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):437-455
Global Circulation Models (GCMs) provide projections for future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions ??drivers??: population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c (IPCC WG III 2007). The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty (Stott and Kettleborough, Nature 416:723?C725, 2002). Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production??or p×g??through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs. 相似文献
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The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Several studies using ocean?Catmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (??) and the heat flux negative feedback (??), are here analysed in nine AMIP runs of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. We find that these models generally have improved feedbacks compared to the coupled runs which were analysed in part I of this study. The Bjerknes feedback,???, is increased in most AMIP runs compared to the coupled run counterparts, and exhibits both positive and negative biases with respect to ERA40. As in the coupled runs, the shortwave and latent heat flux feedbacks are the two dominant components of ?? in the AMIP runs. We investigate the mechanisms behind these two important feedbacks, in particular focusing on the strong 1997?C1998 El Ni?o. Biases in the shortwave flux feedback, ?? SW, are the main source of model uncertainty in ??. Most models do not successfully represent the negative ??SW in the East Pacific, primarily due to an overly strong low-cloud positive feedback in the far eastern Pacific. Biases in the cloud response to dynamical changes dominate the modelled ?? SW biases, though errors in the large-scale circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing also play a role. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing in the East Pacific reveals model biases in low cloud amount and optical thickness which may affect ?? SW. We further show that the negative latent heat flux feedback, ?? LH, exhibits less diversity than ?? SW and is primarily driven by variations in the near-surface specific humidity difference. However, biases in both the near-surface wind speed and humidity response to SST forcing can explain the inter-model ??LH differences. 相似文献
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Robert H. Socolow 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):775-790
This article is one of several in this special double-issue that reports the views of “users” of IPCC reports. I am a user
in the sense that I advise the policy-making community and rely on the IPCC reports to provide me with authoritative views
on the state of the science. My principal recommendation for making the IPCC more helpful to the policy-making community is
to strive in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) to communicate fully what the climate science community understands and does
not understand about high-consequence outcomes. This will require the AR5 authors to provide vivid information about future
worlds where high-consequence outcomes have emerged. It will also require the AR5 authors to reveal any disagreements persisting
among them after the give-and-take of the writing process has run its course. In the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) the presentation
of high-consequence outcomes had shortcomings that can be rectified in AR5. 相似文献
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In this paper we draw on Science and Technology (STS) approaches to develop a comparative analytical account of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The establishment of both of these organizations, in 1988 and 2012 respectively, represented important ‘constitutional moments’ in the global arrangement of scientific assessment and its relationship to environmental policymaking. Global environmental assessments all share some similarities, operating at the articulation between science and policy and pursuing explicit societal goals. Although the IPCC and IPBES have different objectives, they are both intergovernmental processes geared towards the provision of knowledge to inform political debates about, respectively, climate change and biodiversity loss. In spite of these similarities, we show that there are significant differences in their knowledge practices and these differences have implications for environmental governance. We do this by comparing the IPCC and IPBES across three dimensions: conceptual frameworks, scenarios and consensus .We argue that, broadly speaking, the IPCC has produced a ‘view from nowhere’, through a reliance on mathematical modelling to produce a consensual picture of global climate change, which is then ‘downscaled’ to considerations of local impacts and responses. By contrast IPBES, through its contrasting conceptual frameworks and practices of argumentation, appears to seek a ‘view from everywhere’, inclusive of epistemic plurality, and through which a global picture emerges through an aggregation of more placed-based knowledges. We conclude that, despite these aspirations, both organizations in fact offer ‘views from somewhere’: situated sets of knowledge marked by politico-epistemic struggles and shaped by the interests, priorities and voices of certain powerful actors. Characterizing this ‘somewhere’ might be aided by the concept of institutional epistemology, a term we propose to capture how particular knowledge practices become stabilized within international expert organizations. We suggest that such a concept, by drawing attention to the institutions’ knowledge practices, helps reveal their world-making effects and, by doing so, enables more reflexive governance of both expert organizations and of global environmental change in general. 相似文献
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The oceans moderate the rate and severity of climate change by absorbing massive amounts of anthropogenic CO2 but this results in large-scale changes in seawater chemistry, which are collectively referred to as anthropogenic ocean acidification. Despite its potentially widespread consequences, the problem of ocean acidification has been largely absent from most policy discussions of CO2 emissions, both because the science is relatively new and because the research community has yet to deliver a clear message to decision makers regarding its impacts. Here we report the results of the first expert survey in the field of ocean acidification. Fifty-three experts, who had previously participated in an IPCC workshop, were asked to assess 22 declarative statements about ocean acidification and its consequences. We find a relatively strong consensus on most issues related to past, present and future chemical aspects of ocean acidification: non-anthropogenic ocean acidification events have occurred in the geological past, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the main (but not the only) mechanism generating the current ocean acidification event, and anthropogenic ocean acidification that has occurred due to historical fossil fuel emissions will be felt for centuries. Experts generally agreed that there will be impacts on biological and ecological processes and biogeochemical feedbacks but levels of agreement were lower, with more variability across responses. Levels of agreement were higher for statements regarding calcification, primary production and nitrogen fixation than for those about impacts on foodwebs. The levels of agreement for statements pertaining to socio-economic impacts, such as impacts on food security, and to more normative policy issues, were relatively low. 相似文献
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The paper investigates topics, emphases, frames and absences in the Summary for Policymakers parts of the three Working Group reports in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report and the Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report. It explores similarities and differences by using various tools of lexical and discourse analysis, combining quantitative and qualitative methods. The main results are these: First, each Working Group’s Summary reflects not only the Working Group’s distinctive mandate but also a distinctive intellectual framing. Second, although there are some significant differences in the emphases given to different themes from the Working Groups, the Synthesis Summary covers the main topics of the three other Summaries, and constitutes a relatively integrated summary of the complete Assessment Report. Third, we find though that the Synthesis Summary centrally follows up the risk framing and language which are prominent in Working Group II but semi-absent in the other Working Groups, as part of constructing a policy-relevant statement from the three distinctive reports. In addition, the Synthesis Summary makes use of linguistic devices which contribute to ‘amplify’ the strength of statements, as part of transferring messages effectively from the scientific context to a policy-maker audience. Fourth, we find that the style and tone of the IPCC Summaries conduce also to important absences and imbalances in emphasis: main victims of climate change (particular groups of vulnerable people) remain virtually invisible in the Summaries, unlike the impacts in nature and ecological systems or the aggregate economic impacts, and correspondingly the challenges, options and opportunities for action remain relatively underdeveloped in the analysis. 相似文献