共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 296 毫秒
1.
应用作者建立的全球二维大气化学模式 ,采用 2种CH4 排放源的长期增长方案 ,同时考虑了CH4 排放源以及对OH自由基浓度有重要影响的CO和NOx 排放源的长期变化 ,模拟了CH4 和OH从 1840～ 2 0 2 0年的长期变化趋势。考虑了世界人口增长的排放源方案可以更好地模拟CH4 的长期变化 ,模拟结果表明 ,工业革命前的大气CH4 浓度和年排放总量分别为 76 0× 10 -9(V/V)和 2 80× 10 9kg ,1991年大气CH4 的浓度和年排放总量分别为16 11.9× 10 -9(V/V)和 5 33 .9× 10 9kg ,对流层OH自由基数浓度从 1840年的 7.17× 10 5分子数 /cm3 下降到 1991年的 5 .79× 10 5分子数 /cm3,降低了 19%。工业革命以来大气CH4 的增长一方面是由于CH4 排放源的增长 ,另一方面是由于大气OH浓度的下降。 相似文献
2.
大气中一氧化碳浓度变化的模拟研究 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
应用全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了CO、CH4和OH自由基等成分自工业革命到2020年的长期变化.模拟的全球CO平均体积分数在1840年、1991年和2020年分别为27×10-6、76×10-6和105×10-6.从1840到1991年,OH自由基数浓度从7.17×105个分子/cm3下降到5.79×105个分子/cm3,降低了19%.模拟的CH4长期变化与冰芯资料相符.模拟的20世纪80年代CO体积分数年增长率为1.03%～1.06%.大气中CO在20世纪90年代前是增长的,而到90年代初观测到CO体积分数突然下降.应用二维大气化学模式对此原因进行了模拟研究,结果表明,CO排放源的减少是CO体积分数下降的主要因子,平流层臭氧减少是另一个重要因子.尽管CO排放源的减少对大气CH4增长率的变化有较大影响,而CH4排放源减少对CO体积分数变化却几乎没有影响. 相似文献
3.
1992年大气甲烷增长速率异常
下降的模拟研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
应用初步建立的全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了甲烷、一氧化碳和OH自由基自工业革命以来的长期变化,对1992年大气中甲烷增长速率突然下降这一异常现象的可能原因如平流层O3下降,皮纳图博火山引起对流层温度下降、甲烷排放源减少等逐一进行了定量研究。研究还发现一氧化碳排放源的减少是另一重要影响因子,并进行了验证。结果表明,1992年甲烷增长速率急剧下降的主要原因来自甲烷和一氧化碳排放源的减少。 相似文献
4.
将稻田甲烷排放模型CH4MOD和GIS空间化数据库结合,模拟估计了中国大陆1955-2005年水稻生长季稻田甲烷排放量。结果表明：中国稻田甲烷排放总体呈增加趋势,1960年代、1970年代、1980年代和1990年代年均排放量分别为（3.18±0.53）、（4.71±0.27）、（5.22±0.24）和（5.79±0.34）Tg,2000-2005年平均排放量为（6.25±0.36） Tg。1960-1975年增加最快,速率为0.167 Tg/a;自1970年代中期开始增加速率减缓,为0.054 Tg/a。中国稻田甲烷排放高值区主要分布在湖南、湖北、江西、广东、广西、江苏和安徽省,约占全国稻田甲烷排放总量的73.2%。自1980年代初以来,东北三省稻田甲烷排放增加显著,这主要归因于该区水稻种植面积的迅速扩大。 相似文献
5.
北京大气甲烷季变化及发展趋势 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8
近年来北京大气中CH4含量仍在上升,但平均增长率已从1985～1989年的1.76%.a-1,下降到1990～1997年的0.50%.a-1;冬季和夏季两次出现峰值,表现出明显的双峰模态季节变化。但北京大气CH4变化的最大特点是年际季变化不均一,12年中,北京大气CH4共计增长185×10-9混和体积比,其中冬季增长的贡献为69×10-9混和体积比,约占总增长的37%;而夏季的增长贡献不足40×10-9混和体积比,约占总增长的21%。90年代以后,北京大气CH4增长率进一步减慢,主要原因是生物源排放不再增加,而非生物源排放量的增长是大气CH4继续增长的主要原因。 相似文献
6.
用气相色谱法在瓦里关全球基准站进行了大气甲烷（CH4）的连续测量,结合NOAA/CMDL气瓶采样CH4浓度资料的分析结果,给出了我国内陆高原大气CH4本底浓度的变化特征。分析结果表明:瓦里关山大气CH4浓度在1780×10-9～1840×10-9范围内波动,浓度值的变化范围符合中高纬度地区CH4浓度分布;CH4浓度有明显的日变化,夏季的变化趋势及振幅与冬春季有所不同;季节变化幅度不大,与全球大气CH4浓度本底值季节变化的特征及变化幅度的地理分布不太一致;有明显的年际变化,CH4年平均浓度表现为逐年升高,年 相似文献
7.
甲烷（CH4）所引起的温室效应仅次于CO2,固体废弃物填埋处理所产生的CH4作为总的人为温室气体排放源的一部分,估算其排放量对于计算大气中整个温室气体增加所引起的气候效应具有重要的作用和意义。在以往研究的基础上,通过对典型城市生活垃圾的采样分析,确定了最近几年中国城市固体废弃物（MSW）中可降解有机碳（DOC）的含量,并根据IPCC计算CH4排放量的方法以及全国不同区域废弃物管理程度状况,估算得到CH4排放量在全国范围内从东部到西部逐渐减少,且在1994-2004年排放量逐年增加。 相似文献
8.
未来甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧的影响 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用一个耦合的大气化学-气候模式(WACCM3)研究了地表甲烷排放增加对平流层水汽和全球臭氧变化的影响.结果表明,如果地表甲烷的排放量在2000年的基础上增加50%(达到政府间气候变化专门委员会A1B排放情景中2050年的值),平流层水汽体积分数将平均增加约0.8×10-6.南半球平流层甲烷转化为水汽的效率比北半球高.在北半球平流层中,1mol甲烷分子可以转化为约1.63mol的水汽分子,而在南半球1mol甲烷分子大概可以转化为约1.82mol的水汽分子.甲烷排放增加50%将使全球中低纬度地区以及北半球高纬度地区的臭氧柱总量增加1%-3%,使南半球高纬度地区臭氧柱总量增加近8%,而秋季(南半球春季)南极地区臭氧柱总量增加幅度可高达20%,南极臭氧的这种显着增加主要是由于甲烷增加造成的化学反馈所致.在北半球中高纬度地区,甲烷增加引起的臭氧变化主要与甲烷氧化导致的水汽增加有关.研究还表明,未来甲烷排放增加对臭氧的恢复作用其实与溴化物排放的减少一样重要. 相似文献
9.
中国二氧化碳排放源现状分析 总被引：23，自引：1，他引：22
通过对20世纪90年代中国几个主要温室气体研究项目中关于二氧化碳(CO2)排放源研究结果的综合分析,结合最新资料,对1990年的中国CO2排放源进行了收集和完善,对1994年中国CO2排放源重新做了计算.其中,工业生产过程的CO2排放,在以前的研究中仅仅计算了水泥一项,本研究中我们增加了石灰、钢铁、电解铝三项,力求使结果更接近实际情况.结果表明,1990年和1994年中国CO2矿物燃料燃烧和工业过程总排放分别为2218.9×106t(合605.1×106t碳)和2787.8×106t(合760.3×106t碳),分别占当年全球CO2总排放的10.2%和12.7%.能源和工业生产活动的CO2排放均有不同程度的增长.矿物燃料燃烧是中国CO2的最大排放源,占总排放的90%以上.对CO2排放源的不确定性分析表明,中国CO2排放存在大于10%的减排潜力. 相似文献
10.
全球二维大气化学模式和大气化学成分的数值模拟 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
建立了一个全球二维纬向平均化学模式,模式包括了从90°S到90°N,从地面到20 km高度的大气.模式中应用的流场来自根据加热率计算得到的剩余环流.模式化学部分包括34种大气成分、104个化学反应和光化学反应.其中,甲烷、一氧化碳和氮氧化物排放分为季节性和非季节性排放源,并将其参数化为时间和纬度的函数再应用到模式中去.按1990年的甲烷、一氧化碳和氮氧化物的的排放水平模拟得到了多种大气组成的分布,模拟结果与观测有较好的一致性.由于模式考虑了一氧化碳的季节变化,模拟得到的OH自由基分布更为合理.模式的建立为今后进一步研究大气微量成分的全球循环过程及其长期变化提供了有效的手段. 相似文献
11.
A global two-dimensional chemistry model is developed to study long-term trends of CH4 since industrial revolution.The sources of CH4,CO and NOx are parameterized as functions of latitude and time.With two long-term emission scenarios,long-term trends of CH4 are simulated.The results have a good agreement with observation from ice cores.The modeled CH4 increased from 760 ppbv in 1840 to 1611.9 ppbv in 1991, while the modeled number concentration of tropospheric OH decreased from 7.17×105 cm-3 in 1840 to 5.79×105 cm-3 in 1991.The increase of atmospheric CH4 can be explained by the increase of emission of CH4 and build-up because of decrease of OH radicals that remove CH4 from the atmosphere.The model is also used to simulate the distribution of CH4.Comparisons between the model results and observations show that the model can simulate both latitudinal distribution and seasonal variation of CH4 well. 相似文献
12.
1.IntroductionMethane(CH#)isanimportantgreenhousegasinatmosphere.ThemainremovalprocessofCH4inatmosphereisreactedwithOHwhichisdeterminedbytheabundanceofmethane,carbonmonoxide(CO)andnitrousoxides(NO.)whoseemissionshaveincreasedgreatlybecauseofhumanacti... 相似文献
13.
By S. B. DALSØREN I. S. A. ISAKSEN L. LI A. RICHTER 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2009,61(4):588-601
We performed model studies on how anthropogenic emission changes in Southeast Asia (region between 60–150°E and 10°S–50°N) in the period 1980–2020 could contribute to changes in hydroxyl and methane lifetime on a global scale. From 1980 to 2000, we calculate small global OH and methane lifetime changes due to compensating effects by emission changes in Southeast Asia and emission changes in the rest of the world. There is no guarantee that this offset will persist in the future. Southeast Asia is going through rapid economic development and emission increases there may be a major driver for changes. The development of Asian emissions after year 2000 is under much debate and for this period we apply several emission scenarios. For most emission scenarios the simulated Southeast Asian induced changes in global hydroxyl and methane lifetime after year 2000 are moderate. However, an upper estimate assuming very high increases in NO x emissions results in substantial increases of hydroxyl and corresponding reductions in global methane lifetime. Interestingly, for the high NO x emission case our results fit very well with recent satellite observations on trends of NO2 over central eastern China. 相似文献
14.
A two-dimensional global chemistry model is developed to study the distribution and long-term trends of methane. The model contains 34 species and 104 chemical and photochemical reactions. Using the model, the long-term trends of CH4, CO and OH in atmosphere are simulated, comparison between the model and observations shows that the simulation is successful. Experiments are done to investigate the causes of dramatic decrease in the growth rate of CH4 in 1992 such as OH increase due to stratospheric ozone depletion, decrease of temperature in the troposphere due to Mount Pinatubo eruption and descendent of CH4 sources fluxes. A new explanation is proposed and verified by this model that the decrease of CO emission plays an important role for the abnormal growth rate of CH4 in 1992. We find that the decreases of CH4 and CO emissions are the main reasons for the sudden decrease of growth rate of CH4 in 1992, which account for 73% and 27% respectively. 相似文献
15.
We used a fully coupled chemistry–climate model(version 3 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model,WACCM3) to investigate the effect of methane(CH4) emission increases,especially in East Asia and North America,on atmospheric temperature,circulation and ozone(O3). We show that CH4 emission increases strengthen westerly winds in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes,accelerate the Brewer–Dobson(BD) circulation,and cause an increase in the mass flux across the tropopause. However,the BD circulation in the tropics between 10?S and 10?N at 100 h Pa weakens as CH4 emissions increase in East Asia and strengthens when CH4 emissions increase in North America. When CH4 emissions are increased by 50% in East Asia and 15% globally,the stratospheric temperature cools by up to 0.15 K,and the stratospheric O3 increases by 45 ppbv and 60 ppbv,respectively. A 50% increase of CH4 emissions in North America(with an amplitude of stratospheric O3 increases by 60 ppbv) has a greater influence on the stratospheric O3 than the same CH4 emissions increase in East Asia. CH4 emission increases in East Asia and North America reduce the concentration of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals(4% and 2%,respectively) and increase the concentration of mid-tropospheric O3(5% and 4%,respectively) in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. When CH4 emissions increase in East Asia,the increase in the tropospheric O3 concentration is largest in August. When CH4 emissions increase in North America,the increase in the O3 concentration is largest in July in the mid-troposphere,and in April in the upper troposphere. 相似文献
16.
Long-term emissions scenarios have served as the primary basis for assessing future climate change and response strategies. Therefore, it is important to regularly reassess the relevance of emissions scenarios in light of changing global circumstances and compare them with long-term developments to determine if they are still plausible, considering the newest insights. Four scenario series, SA90, IS92, SRES, and RCP/SSP, were central in the scenario-based literature informing the five Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the sixth assessment cycle. Here we analyze the historical trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry and emissions drivers between 1960 and 2017. We then compare the emission scenario series with historical trends for the period 1990–2017/2018. The results show that historical trends are quite consistent with medium scenarios in each series. As a result, they can be regarded as valid inputs for past and future analyses of climate change and impacts. Global CO2 emissions 1960–2018 (and 1990–2018) comprised six (and three) overall subperiods of emissions growth significantly higher and lower than average. Historically, CO2 emissions (in absolute numbers and growth rate) are tightly coupled with primary energy and indirectly with GDP. Global emissions generally followed a medium-high pathway, captured by “middle-of-the-road” scenario narratives in the earlier series, and by combinations of “global-sustainability” and “middle-of-the-road” narratives in the most recent series (SRES and SSP-baselines). Historical non-OECD trends were best captured by “rapid-growth” and “regional-competition” scenarios, while OECD trends were close to regional-sustainability and global-sustainability scenarios. Areas where the emissions scenarios captured the historical trends less well, are renewable and nuclear primary energy supply. The fact that the actual historical development is consistent with rapid-growth narratives in the non-OECD regions might have important implications for future greenhouse gas emissions and associated climatic change. 相似文献
17.
A coupled chemical/dynamical model (SOCOL-SOlar Climate Ozone Links) is
applied to study the impacts of future enhanced CO and NOx emissions
over eastern China on regional chemistry and climate. The result shows that
the increase of CO and NOx emissions has significant effects on
regional chemistry, including NOx, CO, O3, and OH concentrations.
During winter, the CO concentration is uniformly increased in the northern
hemisphere by about 10 ppbv. During summer, the increase of CO has a
regional distribution. The change in O3, concentrations near eastern
China has both strong seasonal and spatial variations. During winter, the
surface O3, concentrations decrease by about 2 ppbv, while during summer
they increase by about 2 ppbv in eastern China. The changes of CO, NOx,
and O3, induce important impacts on OH concentrations. The changes in
chemistry, especially O3, induce important effects on regional climate.
The analysis suggests that during winter, the surface temperature decreases
and air pressure increases in central-eastern China. The changes of
temperature and pressure produce decreases in vertical velocity. We should
mention that the model resolution is coarse, and the calculated
concentrations are generally underestimated when they are compared to
measured results. However, because this model is a coupled
dynamical/chemical model, it can provide some useful insights regarding the
climate impacts due to changes in air pollutant emissions. 相似文献