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1.
The notion is pervasive in the climate science community and in the public at large that the climate impacts of fossil fuel CO2 release will only persist for a few centuries. This conclusion has no basis in theory or models of the atmosphere/ocean carbon cycle, which we review here. The largest fraction of the CO2 recovery will take place on time scales of centuries, as CO2 invades the ocean, but a significant fraction of the fossil fuel CO2, ranging in published models in the literature from 20–60%, remains airborne for a thousand years or longer. Ultimate recovery takes place on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste. The glacial/interglacial climate cycles demonstrate that ice sheets and sea level respond dramatically to millennial-timescale changes in climate forcing. There are also potential positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle, including methane hydrates in the ocean, and peat frozen in permafrost, that are most sensitive to the long tail of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

2.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important greenhouse gas that influences regional climate through disturbing the earth’s energy balance. The CO2 concentrations are usually prescribed homogenously in most climate models and the spatiotemporal variations of CO2 are neglected. To address this issue, a regional climate model (RegCM4) is modified to investigate the non-homogeneous distribution of CO2 and its effects on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature in East Asia. One-year simulation is performed with prescribed surface CO2 fluxes that include fossil fuel emission, biomass burning, air–sea exchange, and terrestrial biosphere flux. Two numerical experiments (one using constant prescribed CO2 concentrations in the radiation scheme and the other using the simulated CO2 concentrations that are spatially non-homogeneous) are conducted to assess the impact of non-homogeneous CO2 on the regional longwave radiation flux and temperature. Comparison of CO2 concentrations from the model with the observations from the GLOBALVIEW-CO2 network suggests that the model can well capture the spatiotemporal patterns of CO2 concentrations. Generally, high CO2 mixing ratios appear in the heavily industrialized eastern China in cold seasons, which probably relates to intensive human activities. The accommodation of non-homogeneous CO2 concentrations in the radiative transfer scheme leads to an annual mean change of–0.12 W m–2 in total sky surface upward longwave flux in East Asia. The experiment with non-homogeneous CO2 tends to yield a warmer lower troposphere. Surface temperature exhibits a maximum difference in summertime, ranging from–4.18 K to 3.88 K, when compared to its homogeneous counterpart. Our results indicate that the spatial and temporal distributions of CO2 have a considerable impact on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature, and should be taken into account in future climate modeling.  相似文献   

3.
A regional surface carbon dioxide (CO2) flux inversion system, the Tan-Tracker-Region, was developed by incorporating an assimilation scheme into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional chemical transport model to resolve fine-scale CO2 variability over East Asia. The proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation approach (POD-4DVar) is the core algorithm for the joint assimilation framework, and simultaneous assimilations of CO2 concentrations and surface CO2 fluxes are applied to help reduce the uncertainty in initial CO2 concentrations. A persistence dynamical model was developed to describe the evolution of the surface CO2 fluxes and help avoid the “signal-to-noise” problem; thus, CO2 fluxes could be estimated as a whole at the model grid scale, with better use of observation information. The performance of the regional inversion system was evaluated through a group of single-observation-based observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The results of the experiments suggest that a reliable performance of Tan-Tracker-Region is dependent on certain assimilation parameter choices, for example, an optimized window length of approximately 3 h, an ensemble size of approximately 100, and a covariance localization radius of approximately 320 km. This is probably due to the strong diurnal variation and spatial heterogeneity in the fine-scale CMAQ simulation, which could affect the performance of the regional inversion system. In addition, because all observations can be artificially obtained in OSSEs, the performance of Tan-Tracker-Region was further evaluated through different densities of the artificial observation network in different CO2 flux situations. The results indicate that more observation sites would be useful to systematically improve the estimation of CO2 concentration and flux in large areas over the model domain. The work presented here forms a foundation for future research in which a thorough estimation of CO2 flux variability over East Asia could be performed with the regional inversion system.  相似文献   

4.
Turf-grass lawns are ubiquitous in the United States. However direct measurements of land–atmosphere fluxes using the eddy-covariance method above lawn ecosystems are challenging due to the typically small dimensions of lawns and the heterogeneity of land use in an urbanised landscape. Given their typically small patch sizes, there is the potential that CO2 fluxes measured above turf-grass lawns may be influenced by nearby CO2 sources such as passing traffic. In this study, we report on two years of eddy-covariance flux measurements above a 1.5 ha turf-grass lawn in which we assess the contribution of nearby traffic emissions to the measured CO2 flux. We use winter data when the vegetation was dormant to develop an empirical estimate of the traffic effect on the measured CO2 fluxes, based on a parametrised version of a three-dimensional Lagrangian footprint model and continuous traffic count data. The CO2 budget of the ecosystem was adjusted by 135gCm−2 in 2007 and by 134gCm−2 in 2008 to determine the natural flux, even though the road crossed the footprint only at its far edge. We show that bottom-up flux estimates based on CO2 emission factors of the passing vehicles, combined with the crosswind-integrated footprint at the distance of the road, agreed very well with the empirical estimate of the traffic contribution that we derived from the eddy-covariance measurements. The approach we developed may be useful for other sites where investigators plan to make eddy-covariance measurements on small patches within heterogeneous landscapes where there are significant contrasts in flux rates. However, we caution that the modelling approach is empirical and will need to be adapted individually to each site.  相似文献   

5.
Spectra of CO2 and water vapour fluctuations from measurements made in the marine atmospheric surface layer have been analyzed. A normalization of spectra based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, originally developed for wind speed and temperature, has been successfully extended also to CO2 and humidity spectra. The normalized CO2 spectra were observed to have somewhat larger contributions from low frequencies compared to humidity spectra during unstable stratification. However, overall, the CO2 and humidity spectra showed good agreement as did the cospectra of vertical velocity with water vapour and CO2 respectively. During stable stratification the spectra and cospectra displayed a well-defined spectral gap separating the mesoscale and small-scale turbulent fluctuations. Two-dimensional turbulence was suggested as a possible source for the mesoscale fluctuations, which in combination with wave activity in the vertical wind is likely to explain the increase in the cospectral energy for the corresponding frequency range. Prior to the analysis the turbulence time series of the density measurements were converted to time series of mixing ratios relative to dry air. Some differences were observed when the spectra based on the original density measurements were compared to the spectra based on the mixing ratio time series. It is thus recommended to always convert the density time series to mixing ratio before performing spectral analysis.  相似文献   

6.
The results of research of diurnal and seasonal dynamics of CO2 emission from the oligotrophic swamp surface in the southern taiga subzone of Western Siberia in 2005–2007 are under consideration. During the summertime, the intensity of CO2 emission increases from spring to the midsummer and then decreases by the fall. A mean CO2 emission value was 118 mg CO2/(m2 hour). The analysis of diurnal dynamics of CO2 emission showed that the maximum CO2 flux is observed at 16:00, while the minimum, at 07:00. Mean amplitude of diurnal variations of the CO2 emission is 74 mg CO2/(m2 hour). The relations established between air temperature and CO2 flux allowed calculating carbon dioxide emission for the periods between measurements. It was found that in the summertime, the period between 10:00 and 13:00 was optimal for measuring CO2 emission with a chamber method.  相似文献   

7.
Based on a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS), the influence of biological activity on the seasonal variation of the air–sea CO2 flux is evaluated. The solution of a sensitivity experiment that excludes biological activity is compared with that of a reference experiment that includes the full processes. The comparison reveals that biological activity results in a much stronger seasonal variation of surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and, hence, the ratio of total alkalinity to DIC in the northern parts of the YECS. The increased ratio resulting from biological DIC consumption contributes to the undersaturated partial pressure of CO2 at the sea surface with respect to the atmosphere, causing the central Yellow Sea in summer and autumn to shift from being a CO2 source to a sink; this same shift also occurs over the Changjiang Bank in summer. In the southern YECS, the biological effect is relatively weak. The comparison further reveals that low water temperature, instead of biological activity, is the dominant factor causing the YECS to become a carbon sink in spring. The biological effect on the variation of DIC (both at the surface and in the water column) differs greatly among the three representative regions of the YECS because of differences in primary production and hydrodynamic conditions. Particle-tracking simulations quantify the regional difference in horizontal advection. In the northern region, weaker horizontal advection causes the longer residence time of low DIC water induced by biological consumption. Over the entire YECS, biological activity contributes to about one-third of the total annual absorption of atmospheric CO2.  相似文献   

8.
A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.  相似文献   

9.
This work examines the spatial patterns of the transient response of mean annual temperature and precipitation to CO2 (or CO2 plus aerosol or aerosol proxy) radiative forcing in eight coupled AOGCMs, generally for the period 1900–2099. Response patterns are characterized using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and the quasi-EOFs of Harvey and Wigley (the first qEOF field, discussed here, is given by the correlation between local year-by-year temperature changes and the global mean temperature change). The first temperature EOF accounts for 80–95% of the space-time variation of the CO2 run in all of the models, and is almost identical to qEOF1 of the temperature response or to the temperature change pattern averaged over the last 30 years of the simulations. EOF1 accounts for 80–95% of the space-time variation in the CO2+aerosol runs in six of the eight models. The CO2 response patterns of different models are highly correlated with one another (R 2 generally >0.5), and are also highly correlated with the CO2+aerosol response patterns (R 2 0.85 in all except one model). The difference between CO2 and CO2+aerosol runs can be represented by EOF1 of the year-by-year differences, by qEOF1 of the year-by-year differences, or by the difference in temperature averaged over the last 30 years of each run. In models where these representations are highly correlated with each other, they are also highly correlated with CO2 EOF1. In other cases, aerosol EOF1 is modestly to highly correlated with control EOF1 (i.e.: the year-by-year differences between CO2 and CO2+aerosol runs are dominated by internal variability), while aerosol qEOF1 and the 30-year difference are highly correlated with each other. For all models, the decadal mean temperature change can be closely replicated by scaling the CO2 EOF1 pattern based on the global mean temperature changes (RMSE for the last decade is <6% of the RMS temperature change for CO2 runs, <8% for CO2+aerosol runs). The first EOF of the precipitation response to increasing CO2 accounts for only 10–30% of the space-time variation, and is generally highly correlated (R 2 up to 0.85) with control EOF1. In all of the models, there is an increase in precipitation in the ITCZ and a decrease in bands at or near 30°S and 30°N. In many models there is an El Niño-like response, including a substantial decrease in precipitation over the Amazon. Global-mean precipitation increases in all models due to CO2 forcing, but aerosols appear to have a disproportionally large effect in suppressing the increase compared to their effect in suppressing the warming. There is evidence in some models that the non-absorbing aerosols considered here reduce summer monsoon rainfall compared to the changes that would be expected based on the globally averaged effect of aerosols on precipitation. When regional precipitation changes over time are predicted by scaling a fixed precipitation-change pattern with the global mean temperature change, the global mean RMSE in the predicted change in decadal-mean precipitation is 25–35% of the global RMS precipitation changes by the end of the simulation.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, CarbonTracker, an inverse modeling system based on the ensemble Kalman filter, was used to evaluate the effects of data assimilation parameters (assimilation window length and ensemble size) on the estimation of surface CO2 fluxes in Asia. Several experiments with different parameters were conducted, and the results were verified using CO2 concentration observations. The assimilation window lengths tested were 3, 5, 7, and 10 weeks, and the ensemble sizes were 100, 150, and 300. Therefore, a total of 12 experiments using combinations of these parameters were conducted. The experimental period was from January 2006 to December 2009. Differences between the optimized surface CO2 fluxes of the experiments were largest in the Eurasian Boreal (EB) area, followed by Eurasian Temperate (ET) and Tropical Asia (TA), and were larger in boreal summer than in boreal winter. The effect of ensemble size on the optimized biosphere flux is larger than the effect of the assimilation window length in Asia, but the importance of them varies in specific regions in Asia. The optimized biosphere flux was more sensitive to the assimilation window length in EB, whereas it was sensitive to the ensemble size as well as the assimilation window length in ET. The larger the ensemble size and the shorter the assimilation window length, the larger the uncertainty (i.e., spread of ensemble) of optimized surface CO2 fluxes. The 10-week assimilation window and 300 ensemble size were the optimal configuration for CarbonTracker in the Asian region based on several verifications using CO2 concentration measurements.  相似文献   

11.
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12.
Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle–climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse–response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO2 mitigation is limited and net CO2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.  相似文献   

13.
The expansion of crop and pastures to the detriment of forests results in an increase in atmospheric CO2. The first obvious cause is the loss of forest biomass and soil carbon during and after conversion. The second, generally ignored cause, is the reduction of the residence time of carbon when, for example, forests or grasslands are converted to cultivated land. This decreases the sink capacity of the global terrestrial biosphere, and thereby may amplify the atmospheric CO2 rise due to fossil and land-use carbon release. For the IPCC A2 future scenario, characterized by high fossil and high land-use emissions, we show that the land-use amplifier effect adds 61 ppm extra CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 as compared to former treatment of land-use processes in carbon models. Investigating the individual contribution of each of the six land-use transitions (forest &#x02194; crop, forest &#x02194; pasture, grassland crop) to the amplifier effect indicates that the clearing of forest and grasslands to arable lands explains most of the CO2 amplification. The amplification effect is 50% higher than in a previous analysis by the same authors which considered neither the deforestation of pastures nor the ploughing of grasslands. Such an amplification effect is further examined in sensitivity tests where the net primary productivity is considered independent of the atmospheric CO2. We also show that the land-use changes, which have already occurred in the recent past, have a strong inertia at releasing CO2, and will contribute to about 1/3 of the amplification effect by 2100. These results suggest that there is an additional atmospheric benefit of preserving pristine ecosystems with high turnover times.  相似文献   

14.
In the context of CO2 surface exchange estimation, an analysis combining the basic principles of diffusion and scalar conservation shows that the mixing ratio is the appropriate variable both for defining the (eddy covariance) turbulent flux and also for expressing the relationship between the turbulent flux and surface exchange in boundary-layer budget equations. Other scalar intensity variables sometimes chosen, both the CO2 density and molar fraction, are susceptible to the influence of surface exchange of heat and water vapour. The application of a hypsometric analysis to the boundary-layer “control volume” below the tower measurement height reveals flaws in previously applied approaches: (a) incompressibility cannot be assumed to simplify mass conservation (the budget in terms of CO2 density); (b) compressibility alone makes the analysis of mass conservation vulnerable to uncertainties associated with resultant non-zero vertical velocities too small to measure or model over real terrain; and (c) the WPL (Webb et al. (1980) Quart J Roy Meteorol Soc 106:85–100) “zero dry air flux” assumption is invalidated except at the surface boundary. Nevertheless, the definition and removal of the WPL terms do not hinge upon this last assumption, and so the turbulent CO2 flux can be accurately determined by eddy covariance using gas analysers of either open- or closed-path design. An appendix discusses the necessary assumptions and appropriate interpretations for deriving the WPL terms.  相似文献   

15.
This study presents and applies a coherent methodological framework to compare biomass cascading chains, i.e. the subsequent use of biomass for materials, recycling and energy recovery, considering land use, CO2 emission reduction and economic performance. Example cascading chains of short rotation poplar wood are compared with each other on the basis of literature data. Results for these chains vary strongly, namely, from CO2 mitigation benefits of 200 /Mg CO2 to CO2 mitigation costs of 2200 /Mg CO2, and from net CO2 emission reductions per hectare of biomass production of 28 Mg CO2/(ha yr) to net CO2 emissions of 8 Mg CO2/(ha yr). Using a present-value approach to determine CO2 emissions and costs affects the performance of long-term cascading chains significantly, i.e. cost and CO2 emission reduction are decreased. In general, cascading has the potential to improve both CO2 emission reduction per hectare and CO2 mitigation costs of biomass usage. However, this strongly depends on the biomass applications combined in the cascading chain. Parameters that significantly influence the results are market prices and gross energy requirements of substituted materials and energy carriers, and the efficiency of biomass production. The method presented in this study is suitable to quantify land use, CO2 emission reduction and economic performance of biomass cascading systems, and highlights the possible impact of time on the attractiveness of specific cascading chains.  相似文献   

16.
In order to correctly use the column-averaged atmospheric CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) data in the CO2 flux studies, XCO2 measurements retrieved from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) in 2015 were compared with those obtained from the global ground-based high-resolution Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) participating in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The XCO2 retrieved from three observing modes adopted by OCO-2, i.e., nadir, target, and glint, were separately validated by the FTS measurements at up to eight TCCON stations located in different areas. These comparisons show that OCO-2 glint mode yields the best qualitative estimations of CO2 concentration among the three operational approaches. The overall results regarding the glint mode show no obvious systematic biases. These facts may indicate that the glint concept is appropriate for not only oceans but also land regions. Negative systematic biases in nadir and target modes have been found at most TCCON sites. The standard deviations of XCO2 retrieved from target and nadir modes within the observation period are similar, and larger than those from glint mode. We also used the FTS site in Beijing, China, to assess the OCO-2 XCO2 in 2016. This site is located in a typical urban area, which has been absent in previous studies. Overall, OCO-2 XCO2 agrees well with that from FTS at this site. Such a study will benefit the validation of the newly launched TanSat products in China.  相似文献   

17.
We examined the annual exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and moist tussock and dry heath tundra ecosystems (which together account for over one-third of the low arctic land area) under ambient field conditions and under increased winter snow deposition, increased summer temperatures, or both. Our results indicate that these two arctic tundra ecosystems were net annual sources of CO2 to the atmosphere from September 1994 to September 1996 under ambient weather conditions and under our three climate change scenarios. Carbon was lost from these ecosystems in both winter and summer, although the majority of CO2 evolution took place during the short summer. Our results indicate that (1) warmer summer temperatures will increase annual CO2 efflux from both moist and dry tundra ecosystems by 45–55% compared to current ambient temperatures; (2) deeper winter snow cover will increase winter CO2 efflux in both moist and dry tundra ecosystems, but will decrease net summer CO2 efflux; and (3) deeper winter snow cover coupled with warmer summer temperatures will nearly double the annual amount of CO2 emitted from moist tundra and will result in a 24% increase in the annual CO2 efflux of dry tundra. If, as predicted, climate change alters both winter snow deposition and summer temperatures, then shifts in CO2 exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere will likely not be uniform across the Arctic tundra landscape. Increased snow deposition in dry tundra is likely to have a larger effect on annual CO2 flux than warmer summer temperatures alone or warmer temperatures coupled with increased winter snow depth. The combined effects of increased summer temperatures and winter snow deposition on annual CO2 flux in moist tundra will be much larger than the effects of either climate change scenario alone.  相似文献   

18.
A global ocean general circulation model (L30T63) is employed to study the uptake and distribution of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean. A subgrid-scale mixing scheme called GM90 is used in the model. There are two main GM90 parameters including isopycnal diffusivity and skew (thickness) diffusivity. Sensitivities of the ocean circulation and the redistribution of dissolved anthropogenic CO2 to these two parameters are examined. Two runs estimate the global oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake to be 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr-1 for the 1990s, and that the global ocean contained 86.8 and 92.7 Pg C of anthropogenic CO2 at the end of 1994, respectively. Both the total inventory and uptake from our model are smaller than the data-based estimates. In this presentation, the vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO2 at three meridional sections are discussed and compared with the available data-based estimates. The inventory in the individual basins is also calculated. Use of large isopycnal diffusivity can generally improve the simulated results, including the exchange flux, the vertical distribution patterns, inventory, storage, etc. In terms of comparison of the vertical distributions and column inventory, we find that the total inventory in the Pacific Ocean obtained from our model is in good agreement with the data-based estimate, but a large difference exists in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the South Atlantic. The main reasons are weak vertical mixing and that our model generates small exchange fluxes of anthropogenic CO2 in the Southern Ocean. Improvement in the simulation of the vertical transport and sea ice in the Southern Ocean is important in future work.  相似文献   

19.
The choice of stabilization target for CO2 concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system; the forcings that might arise from non-CO2 gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO2 concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO2 gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly.  相似文献   

20.
Variations in the deep-sea carbon reservoir have been invoked to explain the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) changes during glacial-interglacial cycles. In order to distinguish between the quantity of organic matter remineralized in the deep-sea and that permanently removed into sediments, we compared the bulk- and organic carbon-accumulation rates in Holocene and glacial sediments deposited below the oxygen minimum layer with total- and organic carbon fluxes to the deep Arabian Sea from continuous sediment trap deployments. This comparison shows that the mass of organic carbon remineralized at the sediment water interface is mainly a function of the bulk sediment flux. The oxygen consumed by the organic carbon remineralization is of the order of the observed oxygen deficiency of the modern deep Arabian Sea water. We use the evidence from the northern Indian Ocean to speculate on the possible effect of abiogenic mineral flux on the removal of organic carbon from upper layers of the world ocean to the deep-sea. We assume that if the bulk accumulation rate (not primary productivity) influences the flux of organic carbon (that is fixed from the atmosphere by marine organisms), then mineral matter flux will exert a significant control over atmospheric CO2 contents. Model calculations incorporating transient changes in global bulk flux, caused by natural or anthropogenic changes, show that significant proportions of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 contents can be explained by this mechanism.This paper was presented at Clima Locarno 90, the International Conference on Past and Present Climate Dynamics: Reconstruction of Rates of Change, held in Locarno, Switzerland, September 24 to 28, 1991, organized by the Swiss National Climate Program — ProClim, with support from the Swiss Academy of Sciences. Guest editor for these papers is Dr. K. Kelts Offprint requests to: F Sirocko  相似文献   

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