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1.
The previously established connection between the occurence of AQDs (“abnormal quiet days” when the phase of the solar diurnal variation of horizontal magnetic field, Sq(H), at a mid-latitude northern hemisphere station is anomalous) at sunspot minimum and the magnitude of the following sunspot maximum is examined in the light of our recent improved understanding of the nature and cause of AQDs. A small contribution to the relationship is found to arise from variations from cycle to cycle in the additional northward field which is characteristic of AQDs and leads to a reduced Sq(H) amplitude at stations poleward of the Sq focus. However, the main factor which determines the connection is a variation from one sunspot minimum to another of the amplitude of the small southward bay-like field perturbations which constitute the AQD events, and evidence is presented which suggests that this parameter may be quantitatively related to the extent of southward swing of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field which determines the energy transfer from the solar wind into the magnetospheric tail. It thus appears that the magnitude of southward swing in Bz might be another solar parameter which anticipates the size of a forthcoming sunspot cycle during its build-up over the declining phase of the previous cycle and at the minimum. 相似文献
2.
Wavelet Analysis of solar,solar wind and geomagnetic parameters 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The sunspot number, solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity index A
p have been analyzed using a wavelet technique to look for the presence of periods and the temporal evolution of these periods. The global wavelet spectra of these parameters, which provide information about the temporal average strength of quasi periods, exhibit the presence of a variety of prominent quasi periods around 16 years, 10.6 years, 9.6 years, 5.5 years, 1.3 years, 180 days, 154 days, 27 days, and 14 days. The wavelet spectra of sunspot number during 1873–2000, geomagnetic activity index A
p during 1932–2000, and solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field during 1964–2000 indicate that their spectral power evolves with time. In general, the power of the oscillations with a period of less than one year evolves rapidly with the phase of the solar cycle with their peak values changing from one cycle to the next. The temporal evolution of wavelet power in R
z, v
sw, n, B
y, B
z, |B|, and A
p for each of the prominent quasi periods is studied in detail. 相似文献
3.
The monthly probability of occurrence of southward (B
z
–
) component of IMF estimated independent of the sector polarity observed near earth is found to change with the magnitude of solar wind velocity. The above analysis is done for each month during two years around sunspot minima and maxima in cycle 21. The results will be interpreted in terms of association of southwardB
z
events with solar wind flows of distinct solar origin such as low and high speed solar wind. 相似文献
4.
Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations across fast forward interplanetary shocks are analyzed during the last solar
cycle minimum (1995–1996, 15 shocks), and maximum year 2000 (50 shocks). It was observed that the solar wind velocity and
magnetic field strength variation across the shocks were the parameters better correlated with Dst. Superposed epoch analysis centered on the shock showed that, during solar minimum, B
z
profiles had a southward, long-duration variation superposed with fluctuations, whereas in solar maximum the B
z
profile presented 2 peaks. The first peak occurred 4 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the magnetic field
disturbed by the shock in the sheath region. The second peak occurred 19 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with
the ejecta fields. The difference in shape and peak in solar maximum (Dst peak =−50 nT, moderate activity) and minimum (Dst peak =−30 nT, weak activity) in average Dst profiles after shocks are, probably, a consequence of the energy injection in the magnetosphere being driven by different
interplanetary southward magnetic structures. A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary
shocks was also obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense
(Dst≤−100 nT) and 28% by moderate (−50≤Dst <−100 nT) geomagnetic activity. During solar minimum, 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic
activity, respectively. Thus, during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks might be followed by
intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar
cycle a shock has a probability of around 50–60% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity. 相似文献
5.
A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R
z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F
10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field. 相似文献
6.
《New Astronomy》2022
The skewness of the monthly distribution of GSE latitudinal angles of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) observed near the Earth (Sk) is found to show anti-correlation with sunspot activity during the solar cycles 20–24. Sk can be considered as a measure of the predominant polarity of north-south component of IMF (Bz component) in the GSE system near 1 AU. Sk variations follow the magnitude of solar polar magnetic fields in general and polarity of south polar fields in particular during the years 1967–2020. Predominant polarity of Sk is found to be independent of the heliographic latitude of Earth. Sk basically reflects the variations of the solar dipolar magnetic field during a sunspot cycle. It is also found that IMF sector polarity variation is not a good indicator of the magnitude changes in solar polar magnetic fields during a sunspot cycle. This is possibly due to the influence of non-dipolar components of the solar magnetic field and the associated north-south asymmetries in the heliospheric current sheet. 相似文献
7.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) carry magnetic structure from the low corona into the heliosphere. The interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs)
that exhibit the topology of helical magnetic fluxropes are traditionally called magnetic clouds (MCs). MC fluxropes with
axis of low (high) inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane have been referred to as bipolar (unipolar) MCs. The poloidal
field of bipolar MCs has a solar cycle dependence. We report a cyclic reversal of the poloidal field of low inclination MC
fluxropes during 1976 to 2009. The MC poloidal field cyclic reversal on the same time scale of the solar magnetic cycle is
evident over three sunspot cycles. Approximately 48% of ICMEs are MCs, and 40% of IMCs are bipolar MCs during solar cycle 23.
The speed of the bipolar MCs has essentially the same distribution as all ICMEs, which implies that they are not from any
special type of CMEs in terms of the solar origin. Although CME fluxropes may undergo a number of complications during the
eruption and propagation, a significant group of MCs retains sufficient similarity to the source region magnetic field to
posses the same cyclic periodicity in polarity reversal. The poloidal field of bipolar MCs gives the out-of-ecliptic-plane
field or B
z
component in the IMF time series. MCs with southward B
z
field are particularly effective in causing geomagnetic disturbances. During the solar minima, the B
z
field IMF sequence within MCs at the leading portion of a bipolar MC is the same with the solar global dipole field. Our
finding shows that MCs preferentially remove the like polarity of the solar dipole field, and it supports the participation
of CMEs in the solar magnetic cycle. 相似文献
8.
A. V. Mordvinov 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):445-456
A comparative analysis of solar and heliospheric magnetic fields in terms of their cumulative sums reveals cyclic and long-term
changes that appear as a magnetic flux imbalance and alternations of dominant magnetic polarities. The global magnetic flux
imbalance of the Sun manifests itself in the solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) signal. The north – south asymmetry of solar
activity and the quadrupole mode of the solar magnetic field contribute the most to the observed magnetic flux imbalance.
The polarity asymmetry exhibits the Hale magnetic cycle in both the radial and azimuthal components of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF). Analysis of the cumulative sums of the IMF components clearly reveals cyclic changes in the IMF geometry.
The accumulated deviations in the IMF spiral angle from its nominal value also demonstrate long-term changes resulting from
a slow increase of the solar wind speed over 1965 – 2006. A predominance of the positive IMF B
z
with a significant linear trend in its cumulative signal is interpreted as a manifestation of the relic magnetic field of
the Sun. Long-term changes in the IMF B
z
are revealed. They demonstrate decadal changes owing to the 11/22-year solar cycle. Long-duration time intervals with a dominant
negative B
z
component were found in temporal patterns of the cumulative sum of the IMF B
z
. 相似文献
9.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):471-485
Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with
the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R
z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R
z) with R
z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R
z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86)
for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc.
377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes
and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present
study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation
+0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R
z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the
sunspot number R
z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R
z(max )=129.7±16.3. 相似文献
10.
I. Sabbah 《Solar physics》2007,245(1):207-217
Neutron monitor data observed at Climax (CL) and Huancayo/Haleakala (HU/HAL) have been used to calculate the amplitude A of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic rays (CRs). The median primary rigidity of response, R
m, for these detectors encompasses the range 18 ≤R
m≤46 GV and the threshold rigidity R
0 covers the range 2.97≤R
0≤12.9 GV. The daily average values of CR counts have been harmonically analyzed for each Bartels solar rotation (SR) during
the period 1953 – 2001. The amplitude of the 27-day CR variation is cross-correlated to solar activity as measured by the
sunspot number R, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength B, the z-component B
z
of the IMF vector, and the tilt angle ψ of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). It is anticorrelated to the solar coronal
hole area (CHA) index as well as to the solar wind speed V. The wind speed V leads the amplitude by 24 SRs. The amplitude of the 27-day CR variation is better correlated to each of the these parameters
during positive solar polarity (A>0) than during negative solar polarity (A<0) periods. The CR modulation differs during A>0 from that during A<0 owing to the contribution of the z-component of the IMF. It differs during A
1>0 (1971 – 1980) from that during A
2>0 (1992 – 2001) owing to solar wind speed. 相似文献
11.
Observations of interplanetary magnetic field polarity, solar wind speed, and geomagnetic disturbance index (C9) during the years 1962–1975 are compared in a 27-day pictorial format that emphasizes their associated variations during the sunspot cycle. This display accentuates graphically several recently reported features of solar wind streams including the fact that the streams were faster, wider, and longer-lived during 1962–1964 and 1973–1975 in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle than during intervening years (Bame et al., 1976; Gosling et al., 1976). The display reveals strikingly that these high-speed streams were associated with the major, recurrent patterns of geomagnetic activity that are characteristic of the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. Finally, the display shows that during 1962–1975 the association between long-lived solar wind streams and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances was modulated by the annual variation (Burch, 1973) of the response of the geomagnetic field to solar wind conditions. The phase of this annual variation depends on the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field in the sense that negative sectors of the interplanetary field have their greatest geomagnetic effect in northern hemisphere spring, and positive sectors have their greatest effect in the fall. During 1965–1972 when the solar wind streams were relatively slow (500 km s-1), the annual variation strongly influenced the visibility of the corresponding geomagnetic disturbance patterns.Visiting Scientist, Kitt Peak National Observatory, Tucson, Arizona.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
12.
The geomagnetic activity is the result of the solar wind–magnetosphere interaction. It varies following the basic 11-year solar cycle; yet shorter time-scale variations appear intermittently. We study the quasi-periodic behavior of the characteristics of solar wind (speed, temperature, pressure, density) and the interplanetary magnetic field (B x , B y , B z , β, Alfvén Mach number) and the variations of the geomagnetic activity indices (D ST, AE, A p and K p). In the analysis of the corresponding 14 time series, which span four solar cycles (1966?–?2010), we use both a wavelet expansion and the Lomb/Scargle periodograms. Our results verify intermittent periodicities in our time-series data, which correspond to already known solar activity variations on timescales shorter than the sunspot cycle; some of these are shared between the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices. 相似文献
13.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,233(1):107-115
This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23
and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase
from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in
1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000
was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic
flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45∘–90∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0∘–45∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not
match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases
similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001
for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas
ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from
high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching
with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough)
larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot
activity. 相似文献
14.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,236(1):207-226
After increasing almost monotonically from sunspot minimum, sunspot activity near maximum falters and remains in a narrow
grove for several tens of months. During the 2–3 years of turmoil near sunspot maximum, sunspots depict several peaks (Gnevyshev
peaks). The spaces between successive peaks are termed as Gnevyshev Gaps (GG). An examination showed that the depths of the troughs varied considerably from one GG to the next in the same cycle, with magnitudes varying in a wide range (<1%
to ∼20%). In any cycle, the sunspot patterns were dissimilar to those of other solar parameters, qualitatively as well as
quantitatively, indicating a general turbulence, affecting different solar parameters differently. The solar polar magnetic
field reversal does not occur at the beginning of the general turmoil; it occurs much later. For cosmic ray (CR) modulation
which occurs deep in the heliosphere, one would have thought that the solar open magnetic field flux would play a crucial
role, but observations show that the sunspot GGs are not reflected well in the solar open magnetic flux, where sometimes only
one peak occurred (hence no GG at all), not matching with any sunspot peak and with different peaks in the northern and southern
hemispheres (north – south asymmetry). Gaps are seen in interplanetary parameters but these do not match exactly with sunspot
GGs. For CR data available only for five cycles (19 – 23), there are CR gaps in some cycles, but the CR gaps do not match
perfectly with gaps in the solar open magnetic field flux or in interplanetary parameters or with sunspot GGs. Durations are
different and/or there are variable delays, and magnitudes of the sunspot GGs and CR gaps are not proportional. Solar polar
magnetic field reversal intervals do not coincide with either sunspot GGs or CR gaps, and some CR gaps start before magnetic field reversals, which should not happen if the magnetic field reversals are the cause of the CR gaps. 相似文献
15.
Power spectral densities computed from low-latitude horizontal intensity of the Earth's magnetic field over two-year periods of declining phases of solar cycles 16 to 19 show a close relationship with the maximum relative sunspot number of the following solar cycles. The maximum sunspot number shows an exponential rise with the power density near 1/27 cd?1; maximum R z,however, increases linearly with power density near 1/14 cd?1. It is also shown that the rate of decline of sunspot number in a solar cycle is almost exactly related, linearly, to power spectral density for the preceding solar cycle. Power densities near 1/27 and 1/14 cd?1 in declining phase of solar cycle appear to be satisfactory indices for the maximum relative sunspot number of the following cycle and its rate of decline thereafter. 相似文献
16.
On the relative roles of unipolar and mixed-polarity fields 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ronald G. Giovanelli 《Solar physics》1982,77(1-2):27-42
Away from plages, solar magnetic fields may be classified as unipolar or as of mixed polarity, though the distinction is strictly arbitrary. The dividing line used here is 0.4 ¦B
minor/B
major¦ 1, where average fields of major and minor polarities are measured over large areas. Some of their statistical properties and cyclical variations are detailed. In unipolar regions, 3 B
major 50 G, B
minor 0.1 B
major, and ¦B¦ 1.1 B
major. In regions of mixed polarity, 3.5 ¦B¦ 10 G.Below latitudes of ± 60°, mixed polarities predominate for about 5 yr around sunspot minimum. For several years around sunspot maximum, unipolar fields fill the 20°–40° zone completely, and occupy about 75% of the 0°–20° and 40°–60° zones.The polar unipolar fields are weak on the whole (Bmajor 4 G for 6 typical days in 1976–79), with small regions having stronger fields at times, probably not exceeding B
major = 10 G. Again B
minor 0.1 B
major. There is no direct way at present of measuring properties of polar mixed fields, such as may occur around sunspot maximum, but by inference ¦B¦ 2 to 5 G.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
17.
A note on the values of the vertical gradient of the magnetic field in the return flux sunspot model
Vladimir Osherovich 《Solar physics》1984,90(1):31-35
The Return Flux (RF) sunspot model (Osherovich, 1982) imposes a restriction on the value of the vertical gradient of the magnetic field, dB/dz, analogous to a restriction implied by the self-similar sunspot model of Schlüter and Temesvary (ST). The maximum value of the gradient, (dB/dz)max, is shown to be 10% smaller in the RF model than in the ST model. The dependence of (dB/dz)max on the sunspot radius is predicted. 相似文献
18.
V. G. Fainshtein 《Solar physics》1991,136(1):169-189
By analyzing observational data, it has been possible to determine quantitative relationships that represent the role of the interaction of fast and slow solar wind (SW) streams in the formation of characteristic SW properties at the Earth's orbit.It is shown that maximum values of magnetic field B
M and density n
M peaks in the neighbourhood of the sector boundary (SB) at the base of the high-speed stream front are associated with solar wind characteristics such as the SW minimum velocity near the SB, V
m, the maximum velocity in the central part of the fast stream, V
M, and the slope of the magnetic field neutral line to the solar equatorial plane at R = 2.5 R
(R
is the solar radius).It is concluded that enhancements of absolute values of the z-component of the magnetic field, ¦B
z¦, recorded at the Earth's orbit, are largely attributable, at sufficiently large values of , to the interaction of different-velocity SW streams. 相似文献
19.
Periodicities in the occurrence rate of solar proton events 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Power spectral analyses of the time series of solar proton events during the past three solar cycles reveal a periodicity around 154 days. This feature is prominent in all of the cycles combined, cycles 19 and 21 individually but is only weak in cycle 20. These results are consistent with the presence of similar periodicities between 152 and 155 days in the occurrence rate of major solar flares, the sunspot blocking function (P
s
), the 10.7 cm radio flux (F
10.7) and the sunspot number (R
z
). This suggests that the circa 154-days periodicity may be a fundamental characteristic of the Sun. Periods around 50–52 days are also found in the combined data set and in the three individual cycles in general agreement with the detection of this periodicity in major flares in cycle 19 and inP
s
,F
10.7, andR
z
in cycle 21. The cause of the 155 day period remains unknown. The spectra contain lines (or show power at frequencies) consistent with a model in which the periodicity is caused by differential rotation of active zones and a model in which it is related to beat frequencies between solar oscillations, as proposed by Wolff. 相似文献
20.
Using Greenwich data (1879–1976) and SOON/NOAA data (1977–2002) on sunspot groups we found the following results: (i) The
Sun's mean (over all the concerned cycles during 1879–1975) equatorial rotation rate (A) is significantly larger (≈0.1%) in the odd-numbered sunspot cycles (ONSCs) than in the even-numbered sunspot cycles (ENSCs).
The mean rotation is significantly (≈10%) more differential in the ONSCs than in the ENSCs. North–south difference in the
mean equatorial rotation rate is larger in the ONSCs than in the ENSCs. North–south difference in the mean latitude gradient
of the rotation is significant in the ENSCs and insignificant in the ONSCs. (ii) The known very large decrease in A from cycle 13 to cycle 14 is confirmed. The amount of this decrease in the mean A was about 0.017 μrad s−1. Also, we find that A decreased from cycle 17 to cycle 18 by about 0.008 μrad s−1 and from cycle 21 to cycle 22 by about 0.016 μrad s−1. From cycle 13 to cycle 14 the decrease in A was more in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere, it is opposite in the later two epochs. The time gap
between the consecutive drops in A is about 44 years, suggesting the existence of a `44-yr' cycle or `double Hale cycle' in A. The time gap between the two large drops, viz., from cycle 13 to cycle 14 and from cycle 21 to cycle 22, is about 90 years
(Gleissberg cycle). We predict that the next drop (moderate) in A will be occurring from cycle 25 to cycle 26 and will be followed by a relatively large-amplitude `double Hale cycle' of sunspot
activity. (iii) Existence of a 90-yr cycle is seen in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the latitude gradient (B). A weak 22-yr modulation in B seems to be superposed on the relatively strong 90-yr modulation. (iv) The coefficient A varies significantly only during ONSCs and the variation has maximum amplitude in the order of 0.01 μrad s−1 around activity minima. (v) There exists a good anticorrelation between the mean variation of B during the ONSCs and that during the ENSCs, suggesting the existence of a `22-yr' periodicity in B. The maximum amplitude of the variation of B is of the order of 0.05 μrad s−1 around the activity minima. (vi) It seems that the well-known Gnevyshev and Ohl rule of solar activity is applicable also
to the cycle-to-cycle amplitude modulation of B from cycle 13 to cycle 20, but the cycles 12 (in the northern hemisphere, Greenwich data) and 21 (in both hemispheres, SOON/NOAA
data) seem to violate this rule in B. And (vii) All the aforesaid statistically significant variations in A and B seem to be related to the approximate 179-yr cycle, 1811–1989, of variation in the Sun's motion about the center of mass
of the solar system. 相似文献