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1.
This paper examines the increased potential risk of tidalinundations in the Pearl River delta, China, due to futurerises in sea level. The research is based on tidal recordsof 54 tide gauges distributed across the delta plain, andemploys mathematical calculations to predict potentialrises of water level in different parts of the delta undera number of flood scenarios. After assessing a 72-yeartidal record of Hong Kong and factors such as estuarinebackwater effects and long-term geological subsidence,it suggests that a 30 cm rise in relative sea level at themouth of the estuary is possible by 2030. Based on theprediction and five freshwater discharge scenarios, thepotential impacts on water levels across the delta plain arecalculated. Three zones are identified as least affected,heavily affected and severely affected. The impacts arealso translated into return periods of water level. It issuggested that in a large part of the delta plain, returnperiods will be shortened and hence will be increasinglyvulnerable to tidal inundation. Finally, managementimplications are discussed along with assessment ofthe adequacy of the existing tidal flood defences, as well asevaluation of the cost implications if they are to be improved. 相似文献
2.
Historical data on the temperature and precipitation data for London has been combined with output from the Hadley Model to estimate the climate of London for the period 1100–2100 CE. This has been converted to other parameters such as freeze–thaw frequency and snowfall relevant to the weathering of stone facades. The pollutant concentrations have been estimated for the same period, with the historical values taken from single box modelling and future values from changes likely given current policy within the metropolis. These values are used in the Lipfert model to show that the recession from karst weathering dominates across the period, while the contributions of sulphur deposition seem notable only across a shorter period 1700–2000 CE. Observations of the late seventeenth century suggest London architects witnessed a notable increase in the recession rate and attributed “fretting quality” to “smoaks of the sea-coal”. The recession rates measured in the late twentieth century lend some support to the estimates from the Lipfert model. The recession looks to increase only slightly, and frost shattering will decrease while salt weathering is likely to increase. 相似文献
3.
在上文阐明"五江一河"径流量的年际变化及各节点具体径流量要比"红旗河工程"构想少得多的基础上,本文依据前人资料和成果,进一步阐述这些河流的径流量,在年内分配的不均匀性与洪水特征,及其对跨流域调水量的制约作用。研究表明:"五江一河"在11月到翌年4月,径流量只占全年总径流量的12.09%~21.84%,月均只有2.01%~3.64%,为冬、春季枯水期。其径流量只比拟调水比例20%或21%的月均值1.67%或1.75%略多。如此之少的水量,只能维系流域内的生态、生产及生活用水,而不能跨流域调水。何况"红旗河"中、下游在冬季结冰期也难以进行调水。每年6月份到9月份的4个月,"五江一河"径流量占全年径流量的53.3%~88.3%,甚至8月份的月径流量可达全年总径流量的17.8%~29.6%,属于汛期。根据径流量的实际数据,一年当中可供调水时间段只有丰水与平水期的6个月或汛期的3~4个月,要比"红旗河工程"构想的全年调水的时间大大缩短。在可资跨流域调水的每年5—10月份的时间窗口中,如果按原构想的月均调水流量占年径流量的比例1.67%(按20%计)或1.75%(按21%计)进行调水,则"五江一河"的年调水总量仅为153.25×10^8m^3(按20%计)或161.50×10^8m^3(按21%计)。仅为原构想调水量600亿m^3的1/4,充其量不足27%。在丰水与平水期的6个月中实现年径流量20%或21%的年调水比例,就意味将月调水比例从占年径流量的1.67%或1.75%增加为3.33%或3.50%。这样,"五江一河"的年调水总量可达到306.50×10^8m^3或323.00×10^8 m^3。此调水方案,导致调水河道截面积或工程规模增加一倍,但调水量也只有原构想的大约一半或至多54%。如果将调水目标强行设定为600亿m^3,那么"五江一河"的调水比例将提高到占年径流量的27.1%(南水北调西线工程开展前),或除金沙江和雅砻江之外的其它调水河流的39.0%(南水北调西线工程完成后),"红旗河"的建设规模势必大大增加,这也意味着工程难度大大增加,意味着工程建设与运行成本大大增加,意味着洪水、地震与地质灾害的危险性大大增加。"五江一河"实际可调水量比"红旗河"构想严重减少,使人不禁会对"红旗河"工程立论的科学基础和科学依据提出质疑。 相似文献
4.
Designing a long-term flood risk management plan for the Scheldt estuary using a risk-based approach 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Steven Broekx Steven Smets Inge Liekens Dirk Bulckaen Leo De Nocker 《Natural Hazards》2011,57(2):245-266
The Scheldt is a tidal river that originates in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands. The tides create significant flood risks in both the Flemish region in Belgium and the Netherlands. Due to sea level rise and economic development, flood risks will increase during this century. This is the main reason for the Flemish government to update its flood risk management plan. For this purpose, the Flemish government requested a cost-benefit analysis of flood protection measures, considering long-term developments. Measures evaluated include a storm surge barrier, dyke heightening and additional floodplains with or without the development of wetlands. Some of these measures affect the flood risk in both countries. As policies concerning the limitation of flood risk differ significantly between the Netherlands and Flanders, distinctive methodologies were used to estimate the impacts of measures on flood risk. A risk-based approach was applied for Flanders by calculating the impacts of flood damage at different levels of recurrence, for the base year (2000) and in case of a sea level rise of 60 cm by 2100. Policy within the Netherlands stipulates a required minimal protection level along the Scheldt against storms with a recurrence period of 1 in 4,000 years. It was estimated how flood protection measures would delay further dyke heightening, which is foreseen as protection levels are presently decreasing due to rising sea levels. Impacts of measures (safety benefits) consist of delays in further dyke heightening. The results illustrate the importance of sea level rise. Flood risks increased fivefolds when a sea level rise of 60 cm was applied. Although more drastic measures such as a storm surge barrier near Antwerp offer more protection for very extreme storms, a combination of dykes and floodplains can offer higher benefits at lower costs. 相似文献
5.
地球圈层相互作用中的深海过程和深海记录（II）：气候变化的热带驱动与碳循环 总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1
地球轨道变化驱动冰期旋回的理论是气候演变研究在20世纪的最大突破。然而以65°N太阳辐射量为准的传统轨道理论，忽视了低纬区和碳循环的作用。本项目以“西太平洋暖池”为重点，通过地质资料和气候数值模拟的结合，揭示了“西太平洋暖池”和东亚季风发育的阶段性，发现了暖池海区冰消期表层水升温超前于北半球冰盖的融化。在南沙海区发现了碳同位素有40~50万年长周期，经过全球对比和对意大利上新世地层的实测与分析，证明这是世界大洋碳储库对于地球运行轨道偏心率长周期的响应，并推测是通过浮游植物群改变有机碳在海洋碳沉积中的比例所致。研究表明热带驱动和碳循环在气候演变中重要性，其正确认识是预测气候长期演变趋势的前提。是“深海973”项目总结报道之后的续篇，对上述成果作专题讨论。 相似文献
6.
《Geoforum》2015
Madagascar has always held a special place on the bioprospecting map. Designated as one of the world’s “hottest” biodiversity hotspots, scientists believe the extremely high flora and faunal endemism contain unique potential for the commercialisation of natural products. Years of collections by bioprospectors in Madagascar are beginning to pay off, not necessarily from drug discovery, but through the biodata from their botanical collections. In the paper, we highlight the links between labour and value over time to illustrate the historical process of collecting inventories of biodata and calculating biodiversity metrics. As we demonstrate, biodata originally used for the purposes of drug discovery and scientific exploration are now being repurposed in biodiversity offsetting programs for multinational mining operations in Madagascar. This project of “re-mining” biodata has reinforced the power of select research institutions which now service their expertise for biodiversity offsetting initiatives. In sum, botanical agencies are far from apolitical actors in these new iterations of market-conservation but active participants in a new age of green grabbing. 相似文献
7.
Extreme sea-level events (e.g. caused by storm surges) can cause coastal flooding, and considerable disruption and damage. To understand the impacts or hazards expected by different sea levels, waves and defence failures, it is useful to monitor and analyse coastal flood events, including generating numerical simulations of floodplain inundation. Ideally, any such modelling should be calibrated and validated using information recorded during real events, which can also add plausibility to synthetic flood event simulations. However, such data are rarely compiled for coastal floods. This paper demonstrates the capture of such a flood event dataset, and its integration with defence and floodplain modelling to reconstruct, archive and better understand the regional impacts of the event. The case-study event comprised a significant storm surge, high tide and waves in the English Channel on 10 March 2008, which resulted in flooding in at least 37 distinct areas across the Solent, UK (mainly due to overflow and outflanking of defences). The land area flooded may have exceeded 7 km2, with the breaching of a shingle barrier at Selsey contributing to up to 90 % of this area. Whilst sea floods are common in the Solent, this is the first regional dataset on flood extent. The compilation of data for the validation of coastal inundation modelling is discussed, and the implications for the analysis of future coastal flooding threats to population, business and infrastructure in the region. 相似文献
8.
Spatial analysis of a historical phenomenon: using GIS to demonstrate the strategic placement of Umayyad desert palaces 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mahmoud Bashir Alhasanat Shahid Kabir Wan Muhd Aminuddin Wan Hussin Erin Addison 《GeoJournal》2012,77(3):343-359
The Umayyad qusour (desert palaces) are monumental structures built during the reign of the first caliphate of Islam. Usually dismissed as “pleasure palaces” or “hunting lodges,” some scholars are beginning to argue that these prominent structures were strategic interventions in the landscape. Until now, historians have relied mainly on textual, architectural and art-historical analyses of the qusour in order to understand Umayyad state architecture. This research proposes the use of spatial analysis through GIS to lend a new dimension to the discussion. The results of the analysis show that Umayyad qusour are carefully situated at routes of transhumance and water sources. The distribution pattern of the Umayyad qusour is clustered at the outlet of Wadi Sarhan, and there is actually line-of-sight communication between Azraq, Amra, Haranah, Muwaqqar, Umm al Walid, Mushatta, and Qastal. There is also a positive association between Umayyad qusour and their water sources. These results support the argument that the Umayyad qusour were built strategically at perennial water sources in order to monitor routes of transhumance amongst the socio-political centers of the period. 相似文献
9.
Who are the resident stakeholders in a flood project? A spatial analysis of resident stakeholders 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The importance of public participation has been discussed and well understood for some time, and many people have moved beyond
the development of ideas to putting them into practice. During the past few years, stakeholder theory, one of the most popular
theories originating from the field of business management, has been attracting immense attention due to its utility in raising
representativeness in government. For instance, Hemmati (Multi-stakeholder process for governance and sustainability: beyond
deadlock and conflict. Earthscan, London, 2002) argued that multi-stakeholder processes (MSPs) might be effective methods toward generating better policy options under
the current democratic paradigm. In real life, however, stakeholder theory often has not been appropriately adopted in the
field of environmental management. Sometimes, planners, prompted by the difficulty of identifying stakes, have used the term
“stakeholders” as roughly synonymous with “participants”, thus impairing the content of stakeholder theory. Different from
previous work in the field of flood management, we propose an original approach, the spatial analysis of a flood project for
resident stakeholders (SAFPRS), to identify resident stakeholders in a flood project, rather than merely improving the weakness
of stakeholder identification. Hopefully, this approach might ameliorate the current situation in Taiwan, where some important
stakeholders have been too easily excluded in the execution of flood projects. 相似文献
10.
This paper introduces a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process. The method is applied for flood risk in Europe. Based on this “hybrid convolution” approach, flood loss distributions for nearly all European countries are calculated and presented. Such risk-based estimates of extreme event losses are useful for determining suitable risk management strategies on various spatial levels for different risk bearers. The method is not only applicable for natural disaster risk but can be extended for other cases as well, i.e., where comonotonic risks have to be “summed up” without loss of risk information. 相似文献
11.
K. Lendering T. Schweckendiek M. Kok 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(3):203-217
Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by flood defence systems along main water bodies such as rivers, lakes or the sea. Inside polders, canal levees provide protection from smaller water bodies. Canal levees are mainly earthen levees along drainage canals that drain excess water from polders to the main water bodies. The water levels in these canals are regulated. During the last decades, probabilistic approaches have been developed to quantify the probability of failure of flood defences along the main water bodies. This paper proposes several extensions to this method to quantify the probability of failure of canal levees. These extensions include a method to account for (i) water-level regulation in canals, (ii) the effect of maintenance dredging on the geohydrological response of the canal levee and (iii) survival of loads in the past. The results of a case study demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of quantifying the probability of failure of canal levees and is useful for exploring the relative benefit of risk mitigating measures for canal levees. 相似文献
12.
13.
R. O. Brunnschweiler 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(1):137-194
The mountains of western and northwestern Burma consist chiefly of colossal accumulations of Palaeocene to Eocene (Arakan and Chin Hills) or Senonian to Eocene (Naga Hills) Flysch of varying, including “exotic”, facies. The main frontal thrust zone of the Alpino‐Himalayan Tectogene lies along and within the easternmost ranges of this Indoburman system, not along the western margin (Shan Scarp) of the Sinoburman Highlands. Some of the highest mountains in the Naga Hills are “Klippen” of metamorphics lying on Flysch. The Flysch ranges arose during the Oligocene but along the Arakan Coast there is ample evidence of an equally important earlier orogenic phase (latest Cretaceous) now almost totally buried beneath the western half of the Indoburman system and the post‐Oligocene “Argille Scagliose” and “Macigno” on‐lapping eastwards from the Bengal‐Assam embayment. The lowlands of Central and Lower Burma do not represent a foreland feature, but an intramontane Molasse‐filled basin to which the sea retained access because of a general southerly plunge of the Alpine Tectogene. Geotec‐tonically, it is analogous to the Tibetan Plateau, not the Indo‐Gangetic lowlands. 相似文献
14.
The main objective of this writing is to present a practical way to envisage the flood vulnerability in deltaic region, particularly
on the concern of sea level rise. Kuching city of Malaysia is established on banks of Sarawak River, 30 km from the sea. Therefore,
it is subjected to fluvial and tidal floods. Kuching Bay experiences the highest King Tides in Southeast Asia region. These
tide magnitudes could be a glimpse of future sea level rise. By means of modelling these tides, it provides an understanding
and preparation for the impacts of sea level rise on the flood mitigation infrastructures and the city itself. The modelling
efforts had created an illustration that a 10% rise in tide levels would result in increase of flooding areas up to 6% relative
to existing tide levels. 相似文献
15.
16.
《Geoforum》2016
This largely programmatic paper offers a new way of thinking through the incorporation of farmland into financial markets. Building on the notion of “operations of capital”, it sketches analytical entry points for scrutinizing the inner workings of agri-finance capital formation. The concept of operations can make two useful contributions to the existing discussion. First, it helps provide a more nuanced historicization of the entanglement between finance and farmland. Finance has a long history of penetrating agriculture and the new quality of the contemporary coupling of finance and farmland only becomes fully visible when adopting a more nuanced historical perspective. Rather than imagining the history of capitalism as one where industrial capitalism gives way to financialized capitalism, the concept of operations sensitizes us for the situated modes, processes and practices of financial economization that have reworked economy, society and nature at specific historical conjunctures.Second, it allows us to move beyond simply treating “financialization” as explanans. Shifting attention to the situated practical activities of global finance, it eventually helps us explore central categories of financial economization (“capital”, “resources”, “property” and “value”) as practical accomplishments rather than taking them for granted. Only then can we come to terms with how finance works through farmland in different geographical settings. Empirical material from an ongoing research project will support my arguments. 相似文献
17.
《Geoforum》2013
Mosquitoes are able to vector malaria and other diseases across the planet, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. Not only is this a challenging management problem, we also find it to be underlined by an important philosophical problem, namely: the impossibility of controlling “life”. Influential Estonian biologist Jakob von Uexküll wrote that every creature on Earth, from sea urchins to spiders, lives within a unique sphere of existence called an “umwelt”, or “surrounding world”. The umwelt defines the specificity of relations shared between an organism and its environment. Using this concept we complement existing work on monstrous natures in geography by arguing that “monstrosity” arises in the excesses and discontinuities between the mosquito’s umwelt and the human efforts that seek to eliminate it. This finding arises from fieldwork undertaken with public health and vector control officials in the US state of Arizona over several years. Their focus on reducing mosquito breeding sites suggests the complex and emergent spatialities of the monstrous. 相似文献
18.
Balqis M. Rehan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1039-1057
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options. 相似文献
19.
Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method 总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4
This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the
flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing
literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate
the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation
showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and
that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article,
a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences.
An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics,
(2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population.
By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality
amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information
from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these
events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands.
It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.
相似文献
| A. C. W. M. VrouwenvelderEmail: |
20.
黄河上游梯级水电站施工洪水优化设计方法探讨--以黄河公伯峡水电站施工洪水优化设计为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
梯级水电站设计洪水方法一直是梯级水电站水文设计的难点．几十年来在黄河上游梯级电站设计中已总结出一套比较完整的设计洪水及施工洪水计算方法。通过黄河公伯峡水电站施工洪水优化设计过程，论述了该套方法．并就目前存在的一些观点及疑问给予了较为明确的回答。 相似文献