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1.
We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle.Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012. 相似文献
2.
An updated catalog is created of 303 well-defined high-speed solar wind streams that occurred in the time period 2009?–?2016. These streams are identified from solar and interplanetary measurements obtained from the OMNIWeb database as well as from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) database. This time interval covers the deep minimum observed between the last two Solar Cycles 23 and 24, as well as the ascending, the maximum, and part of the descending phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. The main properties of solar-wind high-speed streams, such as their maximum velocity, their duration, and their possible sources are analyzed in detail. We discuss the relative importance of all those parameters of high-speed solar wind streams and especially of their sources in terms of the different phases of the current cycle. We carry out a comparison between the characteristic parameters of high-speed solar wind streams in the present solar cycle with those of previous solar cycles to understand the dependence of their long-term variation on the cycle phase. Moreover, the present study investigates the varied phenomenology related to the magnetic interactions between these streams and the Earth’s magnetosphere. These interactions can initiate geomagnetic disturbances resulting in geomagnetic storms at Earth that may have impact on technology and endanger human activity and health. 相似文献
3.
We analysed the green-line coronal intensities (530.3 nm, Fexiv), both their time- latitudinal distribution as well as the coronal index of solar activity (CI) over the period 1996–2002. Maximum values of the CI (smoothed) were observed in mid-August 2001, even though the `first' peak was observed in the period January–April 2000. The maximum of the Wolf number occurred in 2000, April – July, and the `second peak' occurred in December 2001–March 2002. Both indices have a similar course in the cycle, but their maxima are shifted by 1.5 year. There was high correlation between CI and Wolf number, the 2800 MHz radio flux, the X-ray 0.1–0.8 nm flux and cosmic-ray flux. The CI values in present cycle 23 are lower than those of the two former solar cycles 21 and 22 by about 1/3. Polar branches, which separated from the principal equatorward branch at mid-latitudes in the cycle minimum, 1996, reached the poles around 2000. The new principal branch for cycle 24 split in 2001, turned over around ±60° in 2002.5 and moves to the equator, where it will end in 2019. Minimum between cycles 23 and 24 will occur around 2007.5, cycle maximum 24 around 2012.5. Poleward branches in cycle 24 will reach the solar poles in 2011. 相似文献
4.
The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of ground-based super neutron monitor stations, situated in different latitudes, have been employed to study the characteristics of the long-term variation of cosmic-ray diurnal anisotropy for a long (44-year) period (1965?–?2008). Some of these super neutron monitors are situated in low latitudes with high cutoff rigidity. Annual averages of the diurnal amplitudes and phases have been obtained for each station. It is found that the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar activity cycle (11 years), whereas the diurnal phase varies with a period of 22 years (one solar magnetic cycle). The average diurnal amplitudes and phases have also been calculated by grouping the days on the basis of ascending and descending periods of each solar cycle (Cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23). Systematic and significant differences are observed in the characteristics of the diurnal variation between the descending periods of the odd and even solar cycles. The overall vector averages of the descending periods of the even solar cycles (20 and 22) show significantly smaller diurnal amplitudes compared to the vector averages of the descending periods of the odd solar cycles (21 and 23). In contrast, we find a large diurnal phase shift to earlier hours only during the descending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22), as compared to almost no shift in the diurnal phase during the descending periods of odd solar cycles. Further, the overall vector average diurnal amplitudes of the ascending period of odd and even solar cycles remain invariant from one ascending period to the other, or even between the even and odd solar cycles. However, we do find a significant diurnal phase shift to earlier hours during the ascending periods of odd solar cycles (21 and 23) in comparison to the diurnal phase in the ascending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22). 相似文献
5.
We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22. These relations are applied to estimate the change in mean frequency for the cycle 21 and 23. A remarkable agreement between the calculated and observed frequency shifts for the ascending phase of cycle 23, indicates that the derived relations are independent of epoch and do not change significantly from cycle to cycle. We propose that these relations could be used to estimate the shift in p-mode frequencies for past, present and future solar activity cycles, if the solar activity index is known. The maximum frequency shift for cycle 23 is estimated to be 265±90 nHz, corresponding to a predicted maximum smoothed sunspot number 118.1±35. 相似文献
6.
The mean annual sunspot record for the time interval 1700–2002 can be considered as a sequence of independent, partly overlapping events, triggered quasi-periodically at intervals of the order of 11 years. The individual cycles are approximated by the step response of a band-pass dynamical system and the resulting model consists of the superposition of the response to the independent pulses. The simulated sunspot data explain 98.4% of the cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8.2 mean annual sunspots. An empirical linear relationship is found between the amplitude of the transfer function model for each cycle and the pulse interval of the preceding cycle that can be used as a tool of short-term forecasting of solar activity. A peak height of 112 for the solar cycle 23 occurring in 2000 is predicted, whereas the next cycle would start at about 2007 and will have a maximum around 110 in 2011. Cycle 24 is expected to have an annual mean peak value in the range 95 to 125. The model reproduces the high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950–2000 with a decrease afterwards, but the peak values for the cycles 18, 19, 21, and 22 are fairly underestimated. The semi-empirical model also recreates recurring sunspot minima and is linked to the phenomenon of the reversal of the solar magnetic field. 相似文献
7.
R. J. Thompson 《Solar physics》1988,117(2):279-289
The new solar cycle, denoted Cycle 22, has risen faster than of any of the previous 21 cycles, indicating that the cycle is likely to be of large amplitude. Moreover, the rapid rise suggests that the cycle could be arriving early, perhaps similar to the phase advance which occurred during Cycles 1–4. The rapid early rise of Cycle 22 also suggests that there might be a connection with the period of extraordinarily low geomagnetic activity centred on 1980. If this is the case, then the suppression of geomagnetic activity is the first sign of a new cycle, in this case approximately 7 years prior to the official start of the cycle. This idea is consistent with recent ideas on the solar cycle and has significant implications for geomagnetic disturbance forecasting. 相似文献
8.
王家龙 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1992,(4)
本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年. 相似文献
9.
T. W. Cole 《Solar physics》1973,30(1):103-110
The techniques of power spectral analysis are used to determine significant periodicities in the annual mean relative sunspot numbers. The main conclusion is that a period of 10.45 yr is very basic and can be associated with an excitation of new solar cycles. When combined with a period of 11.8 yr, associated here with the free-running length of a solar cycle, the mean cycle length of 11.06 yr and a phase variation of 190 yr are explained. Similarly the amplitude variations with periods 88 and 59 yr (previously described as the 80-yr cycle) are due to an amplitude modulation of the solar cycle by a period of 11.9±0.3 yr. The results dispute several associations of planetary position and solar activity.Radiophysics Publication RPP 1647, January, 1973. 相似文献
10.
A few prediction methods have been developed using the precursor techniques and are found to be successful. On the basis of geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding cycle, we have established an expression which predicts the maximum annual mean sunspot number in cycle 23 to be 166.2. This indicates that cycle 23 would be a highly active and historic cycle. The average geomagnetic activity aa index during the ascending phase of cycle 23 would be about 24.9, comparable to 22.2 and 24.8 in cycles 21 and 22, respectively. This further indicates that during the ascending phase of cycle 23 energetic two-ribbon flares will be produced so as to give rise to strong proton events. 相似文献
11.
The modulation model of the solar magnetic cycle for the time interval from 1650 to 1996 A.D. describes an harmonic oscillator with a basic (22.13 ± 0.05)-yr period, which is subjected to amplitude and phase variations that can be represented by a sum of trigonometric series. The simulated sunspot data explain 97.9% of cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8.6 mean annual sunspots. A peak height of 139 for cycle 23 occurring in 2001 is predicted, whereas cycle 24 would have a maximum around 132 in 2014. Simulation of the sunspot numbers from 1000 until 2400 A.D. shows that the model recreates recurring minima (Maunder and Spörer Minimum). The prediction also expects a high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950–2010 with a rapid decrease afterwards. A greatly reduced cycle activity is reproduced by the simulation from about 2065 to 2100 A.D. No direct explanation of the long-term periodicities of the model can be advanced. The high-frequency contribution of the phase modulation, which accounts for the skewness of the solar cycle, shows coincidences with the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, but no physical basis for the matching periodicities can be conceived. 相似文献
12.
A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting
the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual
mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be
less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the
descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8. 相似文献
13.
《New Astronomy》2022
The paper focus on the variation character of sunspot number and solar cycles based on the new version sunspot number (SSN) data. According to seven main variables describing solar cycles, including peak value, the length of cycle, the length of ascending phase, the ratio of the ascending time to the descending time, slope, half width, and area under the curve of solar cycle, clustering, principal component and factor analysis, are applied to analyze variation characteristic and patterns of the 24 solar cycles. We cluster these 24 cycles to find groups in these solar cycles, and search for the main factor determining strength, length and occurrence time of the peak, and the furthest cycle from the average. The cycles within a cluster will be similar or related to one another and different from or unrelated to the cycles in other clusters. These results could help us search for similar cycles conveniently, obtain the understanding of the characteristics of solar cycle variation and analysis of sunspot number change and evolution characteristics, and analyze the origin and the variation mechanism of solar cycle. 相似文献
14.
Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996?–?2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996?–?2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003?–?2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results. 相似文献
15.
This paper reports the results of a study of the N-S asymmetry in the flare index using the results of Knoka (1985) combined with our results for the solar cycles 17 to the current cycle 22. By comparing the time-variation of the asymmetry curve with the solar activity variation of the 11-year cycle, we have found that the flare index asymmetry curve is not in phase with the solar cycle and that the asymmetry peaks during solar minimum. A periodic behaviour in the N-S asymmetry appears: the activity in one hemisphere is more important during the ascending part of the cycle whereas during the descending part the activity becomes more important in the other hemisphere. The dominance of flare activity in the southern hemisphere continues during cycle 22 and, according to our findings, this dominance will increase gradually during the following cycle 23. 相似文献
16.
Solar cycle distribution of great geomagnetic storms 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−200 nT) and super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−300 nT) across the
solar cycles (19–23) are investigated. The results show that 73.2% of the great geomagnetic storms took place in the descending
phase of the solar cycles. 72.7% of super geomagnetic storms occurred in the descending phase of the solar cycles. About 83%
of the great geomagnetic storms appeared during the period from the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years
after solar cycle peak time. 90.9% of the super geomagnetic storms appeared between the two years before solar cycle peak
and the three years after solar cycle peak. When a solar cycle is very strong, the phenomenon that great geomagnetic storms
concentrated during the period from the two years before the solar cycle peak time to the three years after the solar cycle
peak time is very prominent. The launch time of space science satellite is suggested according to the distribution properties
of great geomagnetic storms and super geomagnetic storms in solar cycles. 相似文献
17.
K. M. Hiremath 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,314(1-3):45-49
In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles (1755–1996), long-term
amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles
and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar
cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during
the period 2008.57±0.17 (i.e., around May–September 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period
and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles.
Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and
amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (2030–2042 AD), 27 (2042–2054 AD), 34
(2118–2127 AD), 37 (2152–2163 AD) and 38 (2163–2176 AD), the sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun
might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089–2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar
cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35. 相似文献
18.
《New Astronomy》2016
The diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity, based on the records of two neutron monitor stations at Athens (Greece) and Oulu (Finland) for the time period 2001 to 2014, is studied. This period covers the maximum and the descending phase of the solar cycle 23, the minimum of the solar cycles 23/24 and the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24.These two stations differ in their geographic latitude and magnetic threshold rigidity. The amplitude and phase of the diurnal anisotropy vectors have been calculated on annual and monthly basis.From our analysis it is resulted that there is a different behaviour in the characteristics of the diurnal anisotropy during the different phases of the solar cycle, depended on the solar magnetic field polarity, but also during extreme events of solar activity, such as Ground Level Enhancements and cosmic ray events, such as Forbush decreases and magnetospheric events. These results may be useful to Space Weather forecasting and especially to Biomagnetic studies. 相似文献
19.
A positive correlation is suggested between solar rotation rate and solar cycle length for cycles 12 to 20. This result seems to be opposite to recent observations in solar-type stars and the Sun and yields inverse correlations between cycle lengths and chromospheric activity, but it agrees with previous work with solar-type stars and the Sun suggesting a positive correlation between cycle length and rotation rate. Estimates of solar cycle length for the Maunder minimum suggest a length 17 yr. 相似文献
20.
Taeil Bai 《Solar physics》2006,234(2):409-419
In the declining phase of the current solar cycle (23), a large number of major flares were produced. In this cycle, the monthly
sunspot number continuously remained below 100 since October 2002. However, during four epochs since then, flare activity
became very high. Compared to this, each of cycles 21 and 22 produced only one epoch of high activity in the declining phase.
In the declining phase of cycle 20, similarly to this cycle, there were four epochs of high flare activity. During 2003 and
2004, the distribution of flare sizes measured in GOES classes was much harder (i.e., proportionately more energetic flares) than during the maximum years. Such pronounced hardening of the size distribution
was not observed in the previous cycles. It is of theoretical interest to understand why some cycles are very active in the
declining phase, and the high level of activity in the declining phase has practical implications for planning solar observations
and forecasting space weather. 相似文献