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1.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists Energy Minerals Division 《Natural Resources Research》2009,18(2):65-83
This paper summarizes five 2007–2008 resource commodity committee reports prepared by the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of
the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Current United States and global research and development activities related
to gas hydrates, gas shales, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources are included in this review. These commodity
reports were written to advise EMD leadership and membership of the current status of research and development of unconventional
energy resources. Unconventional energy resources are defined as those resources other than conventional oil and natural gas
that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks. Gas hydrate resources are potentially enormous; however, production
technologies are still under development. Gas shale, geothermal, oil sand, and uranium resources are now increasing targets
of exploration and development, and are rapidly becoming important energy resources that will continue to be developed in
the future.
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2.
The Arman field in western Kazakhstan is estimated to hold recoverable reserves of 3.65 million metric tons of oil and 74
million cubic meters of gas. The field began production in 1994 as a joint venture between Oryx Energy, MangistauMunaiGas,
and the State Holding Company Zharkyn, and currently is operated by Royal Dutch Shell in a 50:50 joint venture with Lukoil.
The geology, crude composition, and production history of Arman is outlined, followed by a review of the field development,
contract structure, and operating and capital expenditures. An assessment of field profitability concludes the discussion.
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Mark J. KaiserEmail: |
3.
Frances J. Hein 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(2):67-84
As conventional oil and gas reservoirs become depleted other unconventional energy sources have to be recovered and produced.
Four of the major unconventional resources that are strategic for North American interests are heavy oil, oil sands, oil shales,
and coal-bed methane. Recent interest and activity in Canada’s vast oil sands are progressing rapidly as soaring oil prices
are fueling a ‘gold rush’ in oil sands development in Alberta. This interest is evident by the record-number of oil sands
and heavy oil presentations at Energy Minerals Division (EMD)-sponsored sessions at the 2004 and 2005 Annual Conventions of
the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), held in Dallas, TX and Calgary, AB. 相似文献
4.
Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources
at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes
based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures
is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an
appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and
levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations.
The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume.
The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type
gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable
volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency
distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.
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Emil D. AttanasiEmail: |
5.
The United States has the world’s largest coal reserves and Montana the highest potential for mega-mine development. Consequently,
a large-scale effort to convert coal to liquids (CTL) has been proposed to create a major source of domestic transportation
fuels from coal, and some prominent Montanans want to be at the center of that effort. We calculate that the energy efficiency
of the best existing Fischer–Tropsch (FT) process applied to average coal in Montana is less than 1/2 of the corresponding
efficiency of an average crude oil refining process. The resulting CO2 emissions are 20 times (2000%) higher for CTL than for conventional petroleum products. One barrel of the FT fuel requires
roughly 800 kg of coal and 800 kg of water. The minimum energy cost of subsurface CO2 sequestration would be at least 40% of the FT fuel energy, essentially halving energy efficiency of the process. We argue
therefore that CTL conversion is not the most valuable use for the coal, nor will it ever be, as long as it is economical
to use natural gas for electric power generation. This finding results from the low efficiency inherent in FT synthesis, and
is independent of the monumental FT plant construction costs, mine construction costs, acute lack of water, and the associated
environmental impacts for Montana.
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Tad W. PatzekEmail: |
6.
This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes
in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally
proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that
compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation
with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the
trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the
presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated
with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the
robustness of both local modeling approaches.
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Emil D. AttanasiEmail: |
7.
《Natural Resources Research》2014,23(1):19-98
This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries and an analysis of energy economics prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight-gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and U and Th resources and associated rare earth elements of industrial interest. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report. 相似文献
8.
Tad W. Patzek 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(4):255-270
This paper analyzes energy efficiency of the industrial corn-ethanol cycle. In particular, it critically evaluates earlier
publications by DOE, USDA, and UC Berkeley Energy Resources Group. It is demonstrated that most of the current First Law net-energy
models of the industrial corn-ethanol cycle are based on nonphysical assumptions and should be viewed with caution. In particular,
these models do not (i) define the system boundaries, (ii) conserve mass, and (iii) conserve energy. The energy cost of producing
and refining carbon fuels in real time, for example, corn and ethanol, is high relative to that of fossil fuels deposited
and concentrated over geological time. Proper mass and energy balances of corn fields and ethanol refineries that account
for the photosynthetic energy, part of the environment restoration work, and the coproduct energy have been formulated. These
balances show that energetically production of ethanol from corn is 2–4 times less favorable than production of gasoline from
petroleum. From thermodynamics it also follows that ecological damage wrought by industrial biofuel production must be severe.
With the DDGS coproduct energy credit, 3.9 gallons of ethanol displace on average the energy in 1 gallon of gasoline. Without
the DDGS energy credit, this average number is 6.2 gallons of ethanol. Equivalent CO2 emissions from corn ethanol are some 50% higher than those from gasoline, and become 100% higher if methane emissions from
cows fed with DDGS are accounted for. From the mass balance of soil it follows that ethanol coproducts should be returned
to the fields.
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Tad W. PatzekEmail: |
9.
Tad W. Patzek 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(3):205-212
This paper analyzes the Illinois State Variety Test results for total and extractable starch content in 708 samples of 401
commercial varieties of corn. It is shown that the normally distributed extractable starch content has the mean of 66.2% and
the standard deviation of 1.13%. The corresponding maximum theoretical yield of ethanol is 0.364 kg EtOH/kg dry corn, and
the standard deviation is 0.007. In the ethanol industry units, this yield translates to 2.64 gal EtOH/nominal wet bushel,
and the standard deviation is 0.05 gal/bu.
The U.S. ethanol industry consistently has inflated its ethanol yields by counting 5 volume percent of # 14 gasoline denaturant
(8% of energy content) as ethanol. Also, imports from Brazil and higher alcohols seem to have been counted as U.S. ethanol.
The usually accepted USDA estimate of mean ethanol yield in the U.S., 2.682 gal EtOH/bu, is one standard deviation above the
rigorous statistical estimate in this paper.
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Tad W. PatzekEmail: |
10.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists 《Natural Resources Research》2011,20(4):279-328
This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals
Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report,
are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in
sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas sands, gas shale and shale oil,
geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and uranium resources. Current U.S. and global research and development activities
are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report. Coal and uranium are expected
to supply a significant portion of the world’s energy mix in coming years. Coalbed methane continues to supply about 9% of
the U.S. gas production and exploration is expanding in other countries. Recently, natural gas produced from shale and low-permeability
(tight) sandstone has made a significant contribution to the energy supply of the United States and is an increasing target
for exploration around the world. In addition, oil from shale and heavy oil from sandstone are a new exploration focus in
many areas (including the Green River area of Wyoming and northern Alberta). In recent years, research in the areas of geothermal
energy sources and gas hydrates has continued to advance. Reviews of the current research and the stages of development of
these unconventional energy resources are described in the various sections of this report. 相似文献
11.
By applying the multi-Hubbert curve analysis to coal production in the United States, we demonstrate that anthracite production
can be modeled with a single Hubbert curve that extends to the practical end of commercial production of this highest-rank
coal. The production of bituminous coal from existing mines is about 80% complete and can be carried out at the current rate
for the next 20 years. The production of subbituminous coal from existing mines can be carried out at the current rate for
40–45 years. Significant new investment to extend the existing mines and build new ones would have to commence in 2009 to
sustain the current rate of coal production, 1 billion tons per year, in 2029. In view of the existing data, we conclude that
there is no spare coal production capacity of the size required for massive coal conversion to liquid transportation fuels.
Our analysis is independent of other factors that will prevent large-scale coal liquefaction projects: the inefficiency of
the process and either emissions of greenhouse gases or energy cost of sequestration.
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Tad W. PatzekEmail: |
12.
C.-Y. Cynthia Lin 《Natural Resources Research》2009,18(1):19-28
This paper uses annual data on world oil price and consumption from 1965 to 2006 to calibrate a Hotelling model of optimal
nonrenewable resource extraction. Numerical solutions are generated for various specifications of the elasticity of demand
for both isoelastic demand and linear demand under each of two possible market structures: perfect competition and monopoly.
Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, the model that best fits actual data is one of perfect competition with linear demand and a
demand elasticity of −0.4. For the periods 1973–1981 and 1981–1990, the model that best fits actual data is one of monopoly
with linear demand and demand elasticities of −0.8 and −0.7, respectively, suggesting that the market was strongly influenced
by OPEC during this time. Under the model that best fits the most recent period (perfect competition with linear demand and
demand elasticity −0.5), the real oil price (in 1982–1984 U.S.$) should fall in the range $60.87–$66.31/barrel over the years
2010–2030.
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C.-Y. Cynthia LinEmail: |
13.
Timothy L. Cook Raymond S. Bradley Joseph S. Stoner Pierre Francus 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(1):77-94
Sediments in Lower Murray Lake, northern Ellesmere Island, Nunavut Canada (81°21′ N, 69°32′ W) contain annual laminations
(varves) that provide a record of sediment accumulation through the past 5000+ years. Annual mass accumulation was estimated
based on measurements of varve thickness and sediment bulk density. Comparison of Lower Murray Lake mass accumulation with
instrumental climate data, long-term records of climatic forcing mechanisms and other regional paleoclimate records suggests
that lake sedimentation is positively correlated with regional melt season temperatures driven by radiative forcing. The temperature
reconstruction suggests that recent temperatures are ~2.6°C higher than minimum temperatures observed during the Little Ice
Age, maximum temperatures during the past 5200 years exceeded modern values by ~0.6°C, and that minimum temperatures observed
approximately 2900 varve years BC were ~3.5°C colder than recent conditions. Recent temperatures were the warmest since the
fourteenth century, but similar conditions existed intermittently during the period spanning ~4000–1000 varve years ago. A
highly stable pattern of sedimentation throughout the period of record supports the use of annual mass accumulation in Lower
Murray Lake as a reliable proxy indicator of local climatic conditions in the past.
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Pierre FrancusEmail: |
14.
Jeremy B. Platt 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(3):263-275
Fuel prices in 2006 continued at record levels, with uranium continuing upward unabated and coal, SO2 emission allowances, and natural gas all softening. This softening did not continue for natural gas, however, whose prices
rose, fell and rose again, first following weather influences and, by the second quarter of 2007, continuing at high levels
without any support from fundamentals. This article reviews these trends and describes the remarkable increases in fuel expenses
for power generation. By the end of 2005, natural gas claimed 55% of annual power sector fuel expenses, even though it was
used for only 19% of electric generation. Although natural gas is enormously important to the power sector, the sector also
is an important driver of the natural gas market—growing to over 28% of the market even as total use has declined. The article
proceeds to discuss globalization, natural gas price risk, and technology developments. Forces of globalization are poised
to affect the energy markets in new ways—new in not being only about oil. Of particular interest in the growth of intermodal
traffic and its a little-understood impacts on rail traffic patterns and transportation costs, and expected rapidly expanding
LNG imports toward the end of the decade. Two aspects of natural gas price risk are discussed: how understanding the use of
gas in the power sector helps define price ceilings and floors for natural gas, and how the recent increase in the natural
gas production after years of record drilling could alter the supply–demand balance for the better. The article cautions,
however, that escalation in natural gas finding and development costs is countering the more positive developments that emerged
during 2006. Regarding technology, the exploitation of unconventional natural gas was one highlight. So too was the queuing
up of coal-fired power plants for the post-2010 period, a phenomenon that has come under great pressure with many consequences
including increased pressures in the natural gas market. The most significant illustration of these forces was the early 2007
suspension of development plans by a large power company, well before the Supreme Court’s ruling on CO2 as a tailpipe pollutant and President Bush’s call for global goals on CO2 emissions.
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Jeremy B. PlattEmail: |
15.
A computer methodology is presented that allows natural aggregate producers, local governmental, and nongovernmental planners
to define specific locations that may have sand and gravel deposits meeting user-specified minimum size, thickness, and geographic
and geologic criteria, in areas where the surficial geology has been mapped. As an example, the surficial geologic map of
the South Merrimack quadrangle was digitized and several digital geographic information system databases were downloaded from
the internet and used to estimate the sand and gravel resources in the quadrangle. More than 41 percent of the South Merrimack
quadrangle has been mapped as having sand and (or) gravel deposited by glacial meltwaters. These glaciofluvial areas are estimated
to contain a total of 10 million m3 of material mapped as gravel, 60 million m3 of material mapped as mixed sand and gravel, and another 50 million m3 of material mapped as sand with minor silt. The mean thickness of these areas is about 1.95 meters. Twenty tracts were selected,
each having individual areas of more than about 14 acres (5.67 hectares) of stratified glacial-meltwater sand and gravel deposits,
at least 10-feet (3.0 m) of material above the watertable, and not sterilized by the proximity of buildings, roads, streams
and other bodies of water, or railroads. The 20 tracts are estimated to contain between about 4 and 10 million short tons
(st) of gravel and 20 and 30 million st of sand. The five most gravel-rich tracts contain about 71 to 82 percent of the gravel
resources in all 20 tracts and about 54–56 percent of the sand. Using this methodology, and the above criteria, a group of
four tracts, divided by narrow areas sterilized by a small stream and secondary roads, may have the highest potential in the
quadrangle for sand and gravel resources.
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David M. SutphinEmail: |
16.
Jessica D. Tomkins Scott F. Lamoureux Dermot Antoniades Warwick F. Vincent 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(1):225-242
Sediment aggregates (“sedimentary pellets”) within the sedimentary record of Lake A (83°00′ N, 75°30′ W), Ellesmere Island,
Canada, are used to construct a 1000 year proxy record of ice-cover extent and dynamics on this perennially ice-covered, High
Arctic lake. These pellets are interpreted to form during fall or early winter when littoral sediment adheres to ice forming
around the lake’s periphery or during summer through the development of anchor ice. The sediment likely collects in ice interstices
and is concentrated in the upper ice layers through summer surface ice melt and winter basal ice growth. The pellets remain
frozen in the ice until a summer or series of summers with reduced ice cover allows for their deposition across the lake basin.
Sedimentary pellet frequency within multiple sediment cores is used to develop a chronology of ice-cover fluctuations. This
proxy ice-cover record is largely corroborated by a record of unusual sedimentation in Lake A involving iron-rich, dark-orange
to red laminae overlying more diffuse laminae with a lighter hue. This sediment sequence is hypothesized to represent years
with reduced ice cover through increased chemocline ventilation and iron deposition. During the past millennium, the most
notable period of inferred reduced ice cover is ca. 1891 AD to present. Another period of ice cover mobility is suggested
ca. 1582–1774 AD, while persistent ice cover is inferred during the 1800s and prior to 1582 AD. The proxy ice-cover record
corresponds well with most regional melt-season proxy temperature and paleoecological records, especially during the 1800s
and 1900s.
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Jessica D. TomkinsEmail: |
17.
Climate of the past millennium inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments on northeast Baffin Island,Arctic Canada 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study uses 239+240Pu-dated varved sediments from Big Round Lake, a proglacial lake on northeast Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a 1000-year-long,
annual-resolution record of past climate. Varve thickness is positively correlated with July–August–September temperature
measured at Clyde River, 70 km to the north of the lake (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). We therefore interpret the variability and trends in varve thickness to partially represent summer temperature.
The coolest Little Ice Age temperatures occurred in this record from 1575 to 1760 AD and were approximately 1.5°C cooler than
today (average from 1995 to 2005 AD) and 0.2°C cooler than the last millennium (average from 1000 to 2000 AD). Pre-twentieth-century
warmth occurred during two intervals, 970–1150 AD and 1375–1575 AD; temperatures were approximately 1.2°C cooler than today,
but 0.1°C warmer than the last millennium. The Big Round Lake varve-thickness record contains features similar to that reconstructed
elsewhere in the eastern Canadian Arctic. This high-resolution quantitative record expands our understanding of arctic climate
during the past millennium.
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Elizabeth K. ThomasEmail: |
18.
Glen M. MacDonald David F. Porinchu Nicolas Rolland Konstantine V. Kremenetsky Darrell S. Kaufman 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(1):129-141
Instrumental climate records from the central Canadian treeline zone display a pattern of variation similar to general Northern
Hemisphere temperature trends. To examine whether this general correspondence extends back beyond the instrumental record,
we obtained a sediment core from Lake S41, a small lake in the Northwest Territories of Canada at 63°43.11′ N, 109°19.07′ W.
A radiocarbon-based chronology was developed for the core. The sediments were analyzed for organic-matter content by loss-on-ignition
(LOI), biogenic-silica content (BSi), and chironomid community composition to reconstruct July air temperature and summer
water temperature. The paleolimnological records were compared with records of atmospheric CO2 concentration, solar variability, and hemispheric temperature variations over the past 2000 years. The results of the analyses
suggest that widely-documented long-term variations in Northern Hemisphere temperature associated with radiative forcing,
namely the cooling following the medieval period during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and twentieth century warming, are represented
in the central Canadian treeline zone. There is also evidence of a brief episode of warming during the eighteenth century.
As evidenced by LOI and BSi, the twentieth century warming is typified by increased lake productivity relative to the LIA.
Depending upon the measure, the increased productivity of the twentieth century nearly equals or exceeds that of any other
period in the past 2000 years. In contrast, the rate of chironomid head capsule accumulation decreased and remained low during
the twentieth century. Although the chironomid-inferred temperature reconstructions indicate cooling during the LIA, they
present no evidence of greatly increased temperatures during the twentieth century. Warming during the twentieth century might
have enhanced lake stratification, and the response of the chironomid fauna to warming was attenuated by decreased oxygen
and lower temperatures in the hypolimnion of the more stratification-prone lake.
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Glen M. MacDonaldEmail: |
19.
A lake sediment core recovered from Lake V57 on Victoria Island, Nunavut, Canada, spanning the last 2000 years, was analyzed
for sub-fossil midge remains and organic-matter content (estimated by loss-on-ignition (LOI)). Significant changes in midge
community composition occurred during the last 2000 years, with a distinct midge community appearing after 1600 AD. The chironomid
community between 0 and 1600 AD was dominated by Heterotrissocladius, Tanytarsus, Abiskomyia, and Paracladius. At approximately 1600 AD, Heterotrissocladius decreased in relative abundance and taxa such as Corynocera ambigua, C. oliveri, Psectrocladius sordidellus type, and Pentanneurini increased in relative abundance. Previously published midge-based inference models for average July
air temperature (AJAT) and summer surface–water temperature (SSWT) were applied to the subfossil midge stratigraphy. The AJAT
reconstruction indicates relatively cool conditions existed between 1100 and 1600 AD, with exceptional warming occuring after
1600 AD, as lake productivity inferred from organic-matter content increased concomitantly with midge-inferred AJAT and SSWT.
The cooler conditions between 1200 and 1600 AD, and the pattern of warming over recent centuries inferred from Lake V57 is
broadly consistent with temperature-sensitive biogenic silica records from other sites in the central Canadian Arctic and
the treeline zone to the south suggesting a regionally synchronous response to climate forcing.
相似文献
David F. PorinchuEmail: |
20.
Holocene climate and glacier variability at Hallet and Greyling Lakes,Chugach Mountains,south-central Alaska 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Evidence from lake sediments and glacier forefields from two hydrologically isolated lake basins is used to reconstruct Holocene
glacier and climate history at Hallet and Greyling Lakes in the central Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. Glacial
landform mapping, lichenometry, and equilibrium-line altitude reconstructions, along with changes in sedimentary biogenic-silica
content, bulk density, and grain-size distribution indicate a dynamic history of Holocene climate variability. The evidence
suggests a warm early Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglaciation in the two drainage basins, beginning
between 4.5 and 4.0 ka. During the past 2 ka, the glacial landforms and lacustrine sediments from the two valleys record a
remarkably similar history of glaciation, with two primary advances, one during the first millennium AD, from ~500 to 800 AD,
and the second during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to 1900 AD. During the LIA, the reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude
in the region was no more than 83 ± 44 m (n = 21) lower than the modern, which is based on the extent of glaciers during 1978. Differences between the summer temperature
inferred from the biogenic-silica content and the evidence for glacial advances and retreats suggest a period of increased
winter precipitation from 1300 to 1500 AD, and reduced winter precipitation from 1800 to 1900 AD, likely associated with variability
in the strength of the Aleutian Low.
相似文献
Darrell S. KaufmanEmail: |