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1.
Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system. 相似文献
2.
Poverty, sustainability and human wellbeing: A social wellbeing approach to the global fisheries crisis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which a social wellbeing approach can offer a useful way of addressing the policy challenge of reconciling poverty and environmental objectives for development policy makers. In order to provide detail from engagement with a specific policy challenge it takes as its illustrative example the global fisheries crisis. This crisis portends not only an environmental disaster but also a catastrophe for human development and for the millions of people directly dependent upon fish resources for their livelihoods and food security. The paper presents the argument for framing the policy problem using a social conception of human wellbeing, suggesting that this approach provides insights which have the potential to improve fisheries policy and governance. By broadening the scope of analysis to consider values, aspirations and motivations and by focusing on the wide range of social relationships that are integral to people achieving their wellbeing, it provides a basis for better understanding the competing interests in fisheries which generate conflict and which often undermine existing policy regimes. 相似文献
3.
Stuart Orr Jamie Pittock Ashok Chapagain David Dumaresq 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):925-932
Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts. 相似文献
4.
Water harvesting has been widely applied in different social-ecological contexts, proving to be a valuable approach to sustainable intensification of agriculture. Global estimates of the potential of water harvesting are generally based on purely biophysical assessments and mostly neglect the socioeconomic dimension of agriculture. This neglect becomes a critical factor for the feasibility and effectiveness of policy and funding efforts to mainstream this practice. This study uses archetype analysis to systematically identify social-ecological regions worldwide based on >160 successful cases of local water harvesting implementation. We delineate six archetypal regions which capture the specific social-ecological conditions of the case studies. The archetypes cover 19% of current global croplands with hotspots in large portions of East Africa and Southeast Asia. We estimate that the adoption of water harvesting in these cropland areas can increase crop production up to 60–100% in Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania and India. The results of this study can complement conventional biophysical analysis on the potential of these practices and guide policy development at global and regional scales. The methodological approach can be also replicated at finer scales to guide the improvement of rainfed agricultural. 相似文献
5.
Large-scale hydropower development is increasingly popular. Although international finance is a significant driver of hydropower market expansion, financial data is relatively obscure and literature remains scarce. This article tracks the financial process in hydropower development in the Mekong River Basin. It shows a shift in influence from traditional public international financial institutions to a diverse mix of private actors, who are enticed with attractive terms of trade and complete decision making power over water resource management. Traditional players have now taken on a more facilitating and regulatory role by providing guarantees and mitigating social and environmental impacts partly releasing the new global and regional private actors from these responsibilities. Because hydropower financing involves opaque processes and confidential documents public accountability is severely limited. While the private sector benefits from relatively short term returns, the public sector is left responsible for long term impacts. 相似文献
6.
The participation of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) in regional fisheries management organizations has inspired optimism among many observers and researchers about increasing the effectiveness of these regional organizations in managing highly migratory and straddling fish stocks sustainably. Others claim that the attendance of ENGOs in meetings of regional fisheries management organizations as accredited observers or as part of member state or cooperating non-member state delegations, could make decision-making complex, long, and inefficient. More generally, NGO participation has attracted broad scholarly interest in the study of interest groups and transnational advocacy in political science. Yet, we know little about the determinants of ENGO participation in meetings of regional fisheries management organizations in the first place. To fill this gap, this article develops a theoretical framework conceptualizing ENGO participation and developing expectations about how ecological and institutional change shapes ENGO participation. The framework deals with structural determinants of ENGO participation, as existing literature primarily has been preoccupied with the study of actor-specific explanations of specific NGOs’ impact in specific political processes. By contrast, we examine how ecological change – such as target fish stock health and biomass status – and institutional change – such as financial resources, membership composition of regional fisheries management organizations and participation by other non-state actors, such as experts and fishing industry representatives – shape ENGO participation. We empirically explore this framework in the context of seven regional fisheries management organizations. A dataset comprising yearly fish stock-level data on participation, institutional, and ecological factors, for 1980–2014, was compiled for our quantitative inquiry into the determinants of ENGO participation. We find robust evidence that institutional change shapes ENGO participation, but not ecological factors related to target fish stock health. We discuss our findings against the backdrop of ongoing debates about NGOs in political science, and spell out broader implications for future research on NGOs in regional fisheries management organizations. 相似文献
7.
This study used the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to increase the resolution of the Global Circulation Model (GCM) at forecasting the amount of precipitation in the Mekong River basin. The model was initially calibrated using the reanalysis data by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the data on observed precipitation. The results of comparison between the SDSM calculations and the observational data were used to generate the distribution of precipitation until 2099 using HadCM3, SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. After total annual precipitation had been downscaled, the percentage change in precipitation was interpolated among the selected stations in order to create precipitation maps. Both A2 and B2 scenario indicate the possibility of remarkable increase in annual precipitation in the Mekong basin, which may amount to 150 and 110%, respectively. The December–January–February precipitation is likely to increase significantly in the most part of the region, and in some areas, almost by three times. On the contrary, the June–July–August precipitation will remarkably decrease in the different parts of the territory under study. As the water resource sector is the backbone of the economics of this region including hydropower and agricultural sector, the changes in the amount of precipitation and its interannual variability can put the usual water business into stress. Thus, proper adaptive measures should be applied both at local and at regional levels for the benefit of all associated countries utilizing the resource of the Mekong River. 相似文献
8.
Fish resources are critical to the food security of many nations. Similar to most contemporary food systems, many fisheries and aquaculture resource supply chains are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Energy price increases and volatility may hence undermine food security in some contexts. Here, we explore the relationships between energy price changes, fish resource supply chain viability, seafood availability and food security outcomes – both for producers and consumers of fish resources. We begin by characterizing the energy intensities of fish resource supply chains, which are shown to be highly variable. We subsequently assess the comparative magnitude and distribution of potential food security impacts of energy price increases for nation states by scoring and ranking countries against a set of vulnerability criteria including metrics of national exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Considerable variability in the vulnerability of populations and high levels of exposure for already food-insecure populations are apparent. Developed countries are likely to be most exposed to the effects of energy price increases due to their high rates of fleet motorization and preference for energy-intensive seafood products. However, heavy reliance on seafood as a source of food and income, as well as limited national adaptive capacity, translates into greater overall vulnerability in developing countries. At the level of individual producers, a variety of adaptation options are available that may serve to reduce vulnerability to energy price changes and hence contribute to increased food security for producers and consumers, but uptake capacity depends on numerous situational factors. 相似文献
9.
Evan D.G. Fraser 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1662-1672
This paper examines four broad policy and public responses to the American Dust Bowl in the 1930s as a way of exploring how society today could address our own “food crisis”. More particularly, in the Dust Bowl some argued that solutions would be found by engineers and farmers who would develop new ways of watering dry fields. A second group believed that inappropriate political and economic incentives had led to bad farming practices prior to the drought and this contributed to wide-spread erosion. To this group, the best solutions included governmental regulation of farm practices. A third group focused on the welfare of individuals, arguing that creating a social safety net to protect marginalized families was the highest priority. Finally, there were commentators who advocated for a smaller scale, ecological, and holistic approach to farming. Today, the same four perspectives are present in debates about how to maintain global food security in light of population growth, high energy prices and climate change. Exploring the similarity of the discourses between today's food crisis and the one that hit American society 80 years ago reveals that advocates of the four different camps are motivated by very different principles. Briefly, proponents of technological solutions base many of their arguments on the assumption that human ingenuity is capable of producing extremely productive food systems. The managerial arguments, by contrast, are based on the idea that the natural environment can be rationally and efficiently managed using scientific principles. The social welfare narrative seeks to create a more equitable food system. Finally, the ecological and holistic narrative argues that diverse, small scale and local food systems are a prerequisite for long term sustainability. The primary contribution of this paper, therefore, is to expose these deeply held ontological tensions as a way of arguing that policy makers today must de-politicise arguments and use the principles embedded in all four narratives when designing programmes to ensure that the 21st century does not face a repeat of the crisis of the 1930s. 相似文献
10.
Concerns about the climate crisis and the escalating pace of global consumption are accelerating the pressure on governments to moderate public demand for resources like water, food and energy. Notwithstanding their increasing sophistication, standard behavioural change approaches continue to be criticised for a narrow understanding of what shapes behaviour. One alternative theoretical position comes from practice theories, which draw on interpretive and relational understandings to focus on practices rather than people's behaviour, and hence highlight the complex and distributed set of factors shaping resource use. While practice theories have gained considerable interest from policy institutions within and beyond the UK they so far have had limited impact upon policy. It has even been argued that there are insurmountable challenges in reconciling the ontological commitments of practice theories with the realities of policy processes. This article advances academic and policy debates about the practical implications of practice theories. It works with evidence from transdisciplinary research intended to establish whether and how key distinctive insights from social practice research can usefully be brought to bear on policy. We pursued this through co-productive research with four key UK national policy partners, focusing on effective communication of social practice research evidence on agreed issues. A key outcome of collaboratively negotiating challenging social theory to usefully influence policy processes is the ‘Change Points’ approach, which our partners identified as offering new thinking on initiatives promoting reductions in people's use and disposal of resources. The Change Points approach was developed to enable policy processes to confront the complexities of everyday action, transforming both how problems are framed and how practical initiatives for effecting change are developed. We discuss the case of food waste reduction in order to demonstrate the potential of Change Points to reframe behaviour change policy. We end the paper by addressing the potential and limitations of informing policy with insights from practice theories based upon the successes as well as the challenges we have met. This discussion has broader implications beyond practice theories to other fields of social theory, and to debates on the relations between academic research and policy more broadly. We argue that, through a co-productive approach with policy professionals, and so engagement with the practices of policy making, it is possible to provide a partial and pragmatic but nevertheless effective translation of key distinctive insights from practice theories and related research, to reframe policy problems and hence to identify spaces for effecting change for sustainability. 相似文献
11.
Gorka Merino Manuel Barange Julia L. Blanchard James Harle Robert Holmes Icarus Allen Edward H. Allison Marie Caroline Badjeck Nicholas K. Dulvy Jason Holt Simon Jennings Christian Mullon Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806
Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products. 相似文献
12.
International fisheries conflict can cause crises by threatening maritime security, ecosystems and livelihoods. In a highly connected world, the possibility for localized fisheries conflict to escalate into ‘systemic risks’, where risk in one domain such as food supply can increase risk in another domain such as maritime security and international relations, is growing. However, countries often choose hard-line actions rather than strategies initiating or repairing fisheries cooperation. To design, prioritize and implement more effective responses, a deeper understanding of the temporal and regional patterns of fisheries conflict is needed. Here, we present novel findings from the first global and longitudinal database of international fisheries conflict between 1974–2016. We explore the characteristics of conflict over time and develop a typology of eight distinct types of conflict. Fisheries conflict increased between 1974 and 2016, with substantial variation in both the type of conflict and the countries involved. Before 2000, fisheries conflict involved mostly North American and European countries fighting over specific species. Since then, conflict primarily involved Asian countries clashing over multiple and nonspecified species linked to illegal fishing practices. We use this empirical data to consider potential response strategies that can foster maritime security and thereby contribute to broader societal stability. 相似文献
13.
China is home to nearly half of the world’s 50,000 large dams, which provide irrigation, flood protection, and hydroelectricity. Most of these projects involve substantial population displacement, which can disrupt social capital, the webs of interdependence and support that community members maintain with one another through relationships of trust and reciprocity. We use new empirical evidence to examine the association between dam-induced displacement and social capital in China and interpret our findings in the context of social–ecological resilience theory. Our focus is on agricultural households on the Upper Mekong River, where four large hydropower dams have been constructed over the past twenty years.Our broad finding is that resettlement is associated with diminished social capital, as measured by two key indicators: inter-household exchange of financial resources, and inter-household exchange of agricultural labor. These effects differ across the four dam sites in the study based on local economic conditions and changes in resettlement policy. We find that population resettlement is associated with markedly lower levels of agricultural labor exchange. In an economically under-developed setting, this reduces the depth and breadth of social support that agricultural households rely on to produce crops for subsistence and income. This in turn diminishes social–ecological resilience because social capital is a key factor that helps agricultural or resource-dependent communities manage risk and adapt to changes and stressors.We consider the policy implications of our findings in the context of scientific and industry efforts to minimize social harm, promote economic vitality, and improve the sustainability of hydropower as a form of renewable energy. 相似文献
14.
Qian Zhou Naota Hanasaki Shinichiro Fujimori Yoshimitsu Masaki Yasuaki Hijioka 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):77-90
Hydropower generation plays a key role in mitigating GHG emissions from the overall power supply. Although the maximum achievable hydropower generation (MAHG) will be affected by climate change, it is seldom incorporated in integrated assessment models. In this study, we first used the H08 global hydrological model to project MAHG under two physical climate change scenarios. Then, we used the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium integrated assessment model to quantify the economic consequences of the presence or absence of mitigation policy on hydropower generation. This approach enabled us to quantify the physical impacts of climate change and the effect of mitigation policy—together and in isolation—on hydropower generation and the economy, both globally and regionally. Although there was little overall global change, we observed substantial differences among regions in the MAHG average change (from ??71% in Middle East to 14% in Former Soviet Union in RCP8.5). We found that the magnitude of changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) was small negative (positive) in Brazil (Canada) by 2100, for the no mitigation policy scenario. These consequences were intensified with the implementation of mitigation policies that enhanced the price competitiveness of hydropower against fossil fuel-powered technologies. Overall, our results suggested that there would be no notable globally aggregated impacts on GDP by 2100 because the positive effects in some regions were canceled out by negative effects in other regions. 相似文献
15.
The climate change research community’s shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts. 相似文献
16.
Recent scholarship focuses on elite capture as a driver of social inequality and a source of policy failure across a wide range of governance initiatives. In the context of environmental governance, concerns center on perceived links between elite capture and decentralization, particularly in developing countries where decentralized natural resource governance has been widely implemented. But, there is limited empirical knowledge regarding if, and the conditions under which, decentralization might promote elite capture, or whether institutional design factors can militate against it. We examine how local institutional arrangements under forest sector decentralization affect the risk of elite capture of forest benefits, as well as the potential for a key institutional design factor (linkages to external organizations as an accountability-building mechanism) to mitigate this risk. We analyze forest product harvesting data as well as social, ecological, and institutional data from pre- and post-decentralization across 56 forests and 174 community groups in four countries. We employ hierarchical linear modeling to test the extent to which decentralization is associated with inequities in the distribution of forest harvest benefits within communities, and to characterize the institutional arrangements that affect elite capture outcomes. We find not only strong evidence for increased local rule-making under decentralization, but also significantly higher risk of elite capture of forest harvest benefits. This risk increases with increasing time since decentralization, but it is also substantially moderated in cases where an external organization was involved in organizing the local forest institution. Our findings highlight ways in which decentralization reforms are filtered by institutional arrangements to produce different outcomes, and generate new knowledge on micro-institutional factors that can reduce the risk of elite capture in decentralized environmental governance regimes. 相似文献
17.
Anticipation methods and tools are increasingly used to try to imagine and govern transformations towards more sustainable futures across different policy domains and sectors. But there is a lack of research into the steering effects of anticipation on present-day governance choices, especially in the face of urgently needed sustainability transformations. This paper seeks to understand how different perspectives on anticipatory governance connect to attempts to guide policy and action toward transformative change. We analyze perspectives on anticipatory governance in a global network of food system foresight practitioners (Foresight4Food) – using a workshop, interviews, and a survey as our sources of data. We connect frameworks on anticipatory governance and on transformation to analyse different perspectives on the future and their implications for actions in the present to transform food systems and offer new insights for theory and practice. In the global Foresight4Food network, we find that most foresight practitioners use hybrid approaches to anticipatory governance that combine fundamentally different assumptions about the future. We also find that despite these diverse food futures, anticipation processes predominantly produce recommendations that follow more prediction-oriented forms of strategic planning in order to mitigate future risks. We further demonstrate that much anticipation for transformation uses the language on deep uncertainty and deliberative action without fully taking its consequences on board. Thus, opportunities for transforming future food systems are missed due to these implicit assumptions that dominate the anticipatory governance of food systems. Our combined framework helps researchers and practitioners to be more reflexive of how assumptions about key human systems such as food system futures shape what is prioritized/marginalized and included/excluded in actions to transform such systems. 相似文献
18.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):317-336
This article assesses a wide range of alternative proposals for post-2012 international climate policy regimes. We believe that these proposals will serve as a basis for debates about how to configure post-2012 climate policy. The article characterizes and assesses the policy proposals along the lines of five key policy dilemmas. We argue that (1) many proposals have ideas on how to reduce emissions, but fewer have a solution on how to stimulate technical innovation; (2) many proposals formulate climate policy in isolation, while there are fewer proposals that try to mainstream climate policies in other policy areas; (3) many proposals advocate market-based solutions, while fewer realize that there are certain drawbacks to this solution especially at the international level; (4) most proposals have a preference for a UN-based regime, while a more fragmented regime, based on regional and sectoral arrangements may be emerging; and (5) most proposals have ideas about mitigation, but not many have creative ideas on how to integrate mitigation with adaptation. 相似文献
19.
Hydropower is booming in Asian river basins originating on the Tibetan Plateau and adjoining mountain ranges – often referred to as the “Third Pole.” These plants generate significant power for Asia’s megaregions; they also dramatically alter environments, economies, and livelihoods in mountainous regions. Yet, current understanding of these developments is limited to specific rivers or countries, obscuring the important relational drivers and characteristics of the boom. In this article, we deploy a novel powershed framework – defined as the material and socio-political infrastructure linking electricity supply and demand areas – to analyze and compare the regional power geographies that shape Third Pole hydropower development. Using this framework, we identify ten powersheds across China, Southeast Asia, and South Asia basins that incorporate the vast majority of new hydropower generation. Our analysis reveals a clear trend towards developing large-scale hydropower in the mountains for the purpose of exporting electricity to megaregions. These powersheds are complex and in flux, crossing political and basin boundaries in ways that defy traditional hydropower analyses. This article thus reveals power export to be the main driver of the boom and its characteristics; it also provides a framework for analyzing power geographies worldwide. 相似文献
20.
This paper examines the combined impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being in low-income rural communities. Using longitudinal survey data of 1800 rural households from 12 districts of Bangladesh over the period 2007–2009, we estimated a three-stage hierarchical logit model to identify the key sources of household food insecurity. The first-difference estimator was then employed to compare pre- and post-shock expenditure for those households that experienced acute food shortages and those that managed to avoid the worst impacts of the shocks. On the basis of our results we conclude that: (1) the soaring food prices of 2007–2009 unequivocally aggravated food insecurity in the rural areas of Bangladesh; (2) the subsequent income shocks of 2007–2009 contributed toward worsening food insecurity; (3) the adverse impacts of these shocks appeared to have faded over time due to labor and commodity market adjustments, regional economic growth, and domestic policy responses, leaving no profound impacts on households’ economic well-being in most cases; and (4) although the immediate adverse consequences of rising food prices were borne disproportionately by the poor, the longer term consequences were distributed more evenly across the rich and poor and were favorable for the day laborers. 相似文献