首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 500 毫秒
1.
Continuous temperature measurements at 11 stream sites in small lowland streams of North Zealand, Denmark over a year showed much higher summer temperatures and lower winter temperatures along the course of the stream with artificial lakes than in the stream without lakes. The influence of lakes was even more prominent in the comparisons of colder lake inlets and warmer outlets and led to the decline of cold‐water and oxygen‐demanding brown trout. Seasonal and daily temperature variations were, as anticipated, dampened by forest cover, groundwater input, input from sewage plants and high downstream discharges. Seasonal variations in daily water temperature could be predicted with high accuracy at all sites by a linear air‐water regression model (r2: 0·903–0·947). The predictions improved in all instances (r2: 0·927–0·964) by a non‐linear logistic regression according to which water temperatures do not fall below freezing and they increase less steeply than air temperatures at high temperatures because of enhanced heat loss from the stream by evaporation and back radiation. The predictions improved slightly (r2: 0·933–0·969) by a multiple regression model which, in addition to air temperature as the main predictor, included solar radiation at un‐shaded sites, relative humidity, precipitation and discharge. Application of the non‐linear logistic model for a warming scenario of 4–5 °C higher air temperatures in Denmark in 2070‐2100 yielded predictions of temperatures rising 1·6–3·0 °C during winter and summer and 4·4–6·0 °C during spring in un‐shaded streams with low groundwater input. Groundwater‐fed springs are expected to follow the increase of mean air temperatures for the region. Great caution should be exercised in these temperature projections because global and regional climate scenarios remain open to discussion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
High Arctic lakes are among the most sensitive ecosystems and climate change strongly affects their physical properties, especially water temperature, and mixing processes. To study the effect of recent climate change on such a lake in the Arctic environment, we measured water chemistry and temperature from 2005 to 2010 in Kongressvatn, a crenogenic meromictic lake in Spitsbergen (Svalbard). In addition, we monitored water column temperatures during two consecutive years and compared them to regional air temperature data and physicochemical lake data from 1962 and 1968, two relatively cold years. Summer surface water temperature was highly correlated to air temperature, and both have increased by approximately 2°C since 1962. Temperature monitoring during 2?years showed that the warm summer of 2007 resulted in increased water temperatures even in the stratified, denser hypolimnion. Our water chemistry measurements showed that the chemocline position in 2005?C2010 was ca 12?m deeper than in 1962?C1968, and a second, weaker, chemocline appeared at metalimnetic depths of 7?C15?m. During the study period, the water level decreased by 4?m, and this change accelerated between 2008 and 2010. Our data support the hypothesis that water temperatures and stratification patterns are changing rapidly with air temperature, but changes in the catchment, such as glacial retreat and permafrost melting, may have an even stronger impact on lake properties.  相似文献   

3.
A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.  相似文献   

4.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large‐scale mode of natural climate variability governing the path of Atlantic mid‐latitude storm tracks and precipitation regimes in the Atlantic and Mediterranean sectors. The primary focus of this study is to investigate the variability of lake levels in seven lakes scattered across Turkey using the method of continuous wavelet transforms and global spectra. The long winter (December, January, February and March) lake‐level series and the NAO index (NAOI) series were subjected to wavelet transform. The global wavelet spectrum (energy spectrum of periodicities) of lake levels and winter NAOI anomalies, in most cases, revealed a significant correlation. It was shown that the Tuz, Sapanca, and Uluabat lakes reflect much stronger influences of the NAO than the other four lakes. In contrast, weak correlations were found in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and eastern Turkey. The periodic structures of Turkish lake levels in relation to the NAO revealed a spectrum between the 1‐year and 10‐year scale level. Although the periodicities of more than 10‐year scale levels were detected, explaining significant relations between the NAO and these long‐term periodicities remains a challenging task. The results of this study are consistent with the earlier studies concerning the teleconnection between the NAO and climate variables in Turkey. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
The region studied includes the Laurentian Great Lakes and a diversity of smaller glacial lakes, streams and wetlands south of permanent permafrost and towards the southern extent of Wisconsin glaciation. We emphasize lakes and quantitative implications. The region is warmer and wetter than it has been over most of the last 12000 years. Since 1911 observed air temperatures have increased by about 0·11°C per decade in spring and 0·06°C in winter; annual precipitation has increased by about 2·1% per decade. Ice thaw phenologies since the 1850s indicate a late winter warming of about 2·5°C. In future scenarios for a doubled CO2 climate, air temperature increases in summer and winter and precipitation decreases (summer) in western Ontario but increases (winter) in western Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Such changes in climate have altered and would further alter hydrological and other physical features of lakes. Warmer climates, i.e. 2 × CO2 climates, would lower net basin water supplies, stream flows and water levels owing to increased evaporation in excess of precipitation. Water levels have been responsive to drought and future scenarios for the Great Lakes simulate levels 0·2 to 2·5 m lower. Human adaptation to such changes is expensive. Warmer climates would decrease the spatial extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes; small lakes, especially to the south, would no longer freeze over every year. Temperature simulations for stratified lakes are 1–7°C warmer for surface waters, and 6°C cooler to 8°C warmer for deep waters. Thermocline depth would change (4 m shallower to 3·5 m deeper) with warmer climates alone; deepening owing to increases in light penetration would occur with reduced input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from dryer catchments. Dissolved oxygen would decrease below the thermocline. These physical changes would in turn affect the phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fishes. Annual phytoplankton production may increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected. Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500–600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Yuji Ito  Kazuro Momii 《水文研究》2015,29(9):2232-2242
Although few reports have described long‐term continuous anoxia in aquatic systems, Lake Ikeda in Japan experienced such conditions in the hypolimnion from 1990 to 2010. The present study aimed to assess temporal fluctuations in the lake's thermal stability from 1978 to 2011 to understand the influence of regional climate change on hypolimnetic anoxia in this lake. Because complete vertical mixing, which supplies dissolved oxygen (DO) to the hypolimnion, potentially occurs on February, we calculated the Schmidt stability index (S) in February and compared it with hypolimnetic DO dynamics. Vertical water temperature profiles were calculated using a one‐dimensional model, and calculated temperatures and meteorological data were used to analyse annual fluctuations in water temperatures, thermocline depth, meteorological variables and S. We estimated that mean annual air and volume‐weighted water temperatures increased by 0.028 and 0.033 °C year?1, respectively, from 1978 to 2011. Between 1986 and 1990, S and water temperature increased abruptly, probably due to a large upwards trend in air temperature (+0.239 °C year?1). We hypothesize that a mixing regime that lacked overturn took effect at this time and that this regime lasted until 2011, when S was particularly small. These results demonstrate that abrupt climate warming in the late 1980s likely triggered the termination of complete mixing and caused the 21‐year period of successive anoxia in Lake Ikeda. We conclude that the lake response to a rapid shift in regional climate conditions was a key factor in changing the hypolimnetic water environment and that thermal stability in winter is a critical environmental factor controlling the mixing regime and anoxic conditions in deep lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Changes in the ice phenology, seasonal temperature and extreme events are consistent evidence of climate change effect on lakes. In this study, we analyzed multiannual variability, determined long-term trends and detected changes in the frequency of extreme events in the surface water temperature (LSWT) of Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia) for nearly seven decades (1950-2018) and aimed to trace how the LSWT responded to the climate change. Dynamic water temperature parameters were calculated using the smoothed water temperature curve fitted to daily water temperatures. Our results showed that, although the average LSWT did not increase significantly on an annual basis since 1950 it rose rapidly in the winter season during the last decade (∼ +0.5 °C). Ice formation exhibited a marked (∼15 days) delay since 2007 resulting in a longer open water period. Extreme LSWT events did not occur more frequently. We noticed however significant fluctuating in winter LSWT in time series, starting from 2007 and also causing an increase in stochasticity. The consequences of the on-going winter warming and changes of ice cover phenology are expected to be crucial for Lake Peipsi ecosystem functioning and impact on lake biota, especially temperature-sensitive native fishes.  相似文献   

8.
There have been few long term investigations of the effects of afforestation on stream temperatures in the UK, and the present study uses the results of continuous monitoring of water temperatures in a forest and a moorland stream of the Loch Grannoch area in southwest Scotland over a 4 year period to investigate the effects of planting coniferous forest on stream thermal regime. The presence of a coniferous tree canopy resulted in a lowering of mean water temperatures by ～0·5 °C but larger reductions in summer monthly mean maxima and diel ranges of up to 5 °C and 4 °C respectively. The diel cycle in the forested stream lagged behind that of the moorland site in all months of the year, but the delay in timing was greater for the peak than for the trough in the diel cycle. Mean water temperatures were higher in the forest stream during the mid‐winter months, reflecting higher minimum values. Contrasts in stream thermal regime between forest and moorland showed relatively little interannual variability over the study period. Continuous monitoring of air temperatures during 2002 revealed contrasts between the study sites that were less pronounced for air than for water temperature, and suggested it is the shading of incoming solar radiation that has a strong effect in determining the water temperature behaviour of the forested stream. Although the biological impact of the observed contrasts in stream temperature between land uses is likely to be relatively modest, the presence of forest cover moderates the occurrence of high summer temperatures inimical to the survival of some salmonid species. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Water temperature behaviour in a small upland Exmoor catchment (the Black Ball Stream) has been studied over a 14-year period since January 1976. Results from continuous records revealed annual mean stream temperatures to have a coefficient of variation of less than 5 per cent, and values of 5,10 and 15°C to be equalled or exceeded 90,41.8 and 4 per cent of the time respectively. The annual regime of water temperature was relatively predictable but diel cycles of varying magnitude were superimposed on the seasonal march. A clear seasonal hysteresis was evident whereby diel range in spring exceeded that in autumn by typically more than 2°C. Trend analysis of monthly temperature time series highlighted the stability of the thermal regime in recent years, although investigation of air-water temperature relationships indicated that an increase in mean surface air temperature projected for southwest England by the Year 2050 would result in a rise of mean winter and summer stream temperatures by 1.6 and 1.3°C respectively. Analysis of streamflow effects on water temperature suggested that future indirect impacts of climatic change on thermal regime via changes in stream discharge are likely to be minor.  相似文献   

10.
Fish habitat and aquatic life in rivers are highly dependent on water temperature. Therefore, it is important to understand andto be able to predict river water temperatures using models. Such models can increase our knowledge of river thermal regimes as well as provide tools for environmental impact assessments. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) will be used to develop models for predicting both the mean and maximum daily water temperature. The study was conducted within Catamaran Brook, a small drainage basin tributary to the Miramichi River (New Brunswick, Canada). In total, eight ANN models were investigated using a variety of input parameters. Of these models, four predicted mean daily water temperature and four predicted maximum daily water temperature. The best model for mean daily temperature had eight input parameters: minimum, maximum and mean air temperatures of the current day and those of the preceding day, the day of year and the water level. This model had an overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 0·96 °C, a bias of 0·26 °C and a coefficient of determination R2 = 0·971. The model that best predicted maximum daily water temperature was similar to the first model but excluded mean daily air temperature. Good results were obtained for maximum water temperatures with an overall RMSE of 1·18 °C, a bias of 0·15 °C and R2 = 0·961. The results of ANN models were similar to and/or better than those observed from the literature. The advantages of artificial neural networks models in modelling river water temperature lie in their simplicity of use, their low data requirement and their good performance, as well as their flexibility in allowing many input and output parameters. Copyright © 2008 Crown in the right of Canada and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Freezing characteristics were investigated for a sedge covered floating fen and spruce covered swamp located beside a shallow lake in the Western Boreal Forest of Canada. Thermal properties were measured in situ for one freeze‐thaw cycle, and for two freeze‐thaw cycles in laboratory columns. Thermal conductivity and liquid water content were related to a range of subsurface temperatures above and below the freezing thresholds, and clearly illustrate hysteresis between the freezing and thawing process. Thermal hysteresis occurs because of the large change in thermal conductivity between water and ice, high water content of the peat, and wide variation in pore sizes that govern ice formation. Field and laboratory results were combined to develop linear freezing functions, which were tested in a heat transfer model. For surface temperature boundary conditions, subsurface temperatures were simulated for the over‐winter period and compared with field measurements. Replication of the transient subsurface thermal regime required that freezing functions transition gradually from thawed to frozen state (spanning the ?0·25 to ?2 °C range) as opposed to a more abrupt step function. Subsurface temperatures indicate that the floating fen underwent complete phase change (from water to ice) and froze to approximately the same depth as lake ice thickness. Therefore, the floating fen peatland froze as a ‘shelf’ adjacent to the lake, whereas the spruce covered swamp had a higher capacity for thermal buffering, and subsurface freezing was both more gradual and limited in depth. These thermal properties, and the timing and duration of frozen state, are expected to control the interaction of water and nutrients between surface water and groundwater, which will be affected by changes in air temperature associated with global climate change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Stream temperature will be subject to changes because of atmospheric warming in the future. We investigated the effects of the diurnal timing of air temperature changes – daytime warming versus nighttime warming – on stream temperature. Using the physically based model, Heat Source, we performed a sensitivity analysis of summer stream temperatures to three diurnal air temperature distributions of +4 °C mean air temperature: i) uniform increase over the whole day, ii) warmer daytime and iii) warmer nighttime. The stream temperature model was applied to a 37‐km section of the Middle Fork John Day River in northeastern Oregon, USA. The three diurnal air temperature distributions generated 7‐day average daily maximum stream temperatures increases of approximately +1.8 °C ± 0.1 °C at the downstream end of the study section. The three air temperature distributions, with the same daily mean, generated different ranges of stream temperatures, different 7‐day average daily maximum temperatures, different durations of stream temperature changes and different average daily temperatures in most parts of the reach. The stream temperature changes were out of phase with air temperature changes, and therefore in many places, the greatest daytime increase in stream temperature was caused by nighttime warming of air temperatures. Stream temperature changes tended to be more extreme and of longer duration when driven by air temperatures concentrated in either daytime or nighttime instead of uniformly distributed across the diurnal cycle. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
We report on the calibration of the one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model to simulate the water temperature conditions of the pre‐alpine Lake Ammersee (southeast Germany) that is a representative of deep and large lakes in this region. Special focus is given to the calibration in order to reproduce the correct thermal distribution and stratification including the time of onset and duration of summer stratification. To ensure the application of the model to investigate the impact of climate change on lakes, an analysis of the model sensitivity under stepwise modification of meteorological input parameters (air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, global radiation, cloud cover, vapour pressure and tributary water temperature) was conducted. The total mean error of the calibration results is ?0.23 °C, the root mean square error amounts to 1.012 °C. All characteristics of the annual stratification cycle were reproduced accurately by the model. Additionally, the simulated deviations for all applied modifications of the input parameters for the sensitivity analysis can be differentiated in the high temporal resolution of monthly values for each specific depth. The smallest applied alteration to each modified input parameter caused a maximum deviation in the simulation results of at least 0.26 °C. The most sensitive reactions of the model can be observed through modifications of the input parameters air temperature and wind speed. Hence, the results show that further investigations at Lake Ammersee, such as coupling the hydrodynamic model with chemo‐dynamic models to assess the impact of changing climate on biochemical conditions within lakes, can be carried out using Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Benthic diatoms of an Alpine stream/lake network in Switzerland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We compared the benthic diatom composition of lakes, and lake inlet and outlet streams in a high elevation catchment (∼2600 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps. The catchment consisted of a southern basin mostly fed by glacial-melt water and a northern basin fed by snowmelt and groundwater. Streams in both basins flowed through a series of small lakes before converging into a lake with a primary outlet channel. The south basin had on average 4°C cooler water temperatures and 2× higher nitrate-N levels (up to 300 μg/L) than the north basin. In contrast, the north basin had higher levels (2–4×) of particulate-P, particulate-N, and particulate organic matter than the south basin. A total of 109 and 143 diatom species was identified in lakes and streams, respectively, with a similar number of species found in each basin. Aulacoseira alpigena and Achnanthidium minutissimum were common benthic algae in north basin lakes, whereas Achnanthes subatomoides, Achnanthes marginulata, Pinnularia microstauron, and Psammothidium helveticum were most common in south basin lakes. One disconnected lake in the north basin had an assemblage dominated by Tabellaria flocculosa (66%) and Eunotia tenella (14%). Principal components analysis showed a clear separation between the north and south basins in lotic diatoms. Of the 10 most common species, streams in the south basin had greater abundances of Psammothidium helveticum, Achnanthes helvetica var. minor, Achnanthes marginulata, Achnanthes subatomoides, and Diatoma mesodon than the north basin, whereas north basin streams had higher abundances of Achnanthidium minutissimum, Aulacoseira alpigena, and Luticola goeppertiana. Lake outlet assemblages were similar to respective downstream lake inlet assemblages, and assemblages changed in composition along each basins longitudinal flow path. However, Aulacoseira alpigena had higher average abundances in north basin outlets than inlets, and Achnanthidium minutissimum, Psammothidium helveticum, and Achnanthes helvetica var. minor had higher average abundances in south basin outlets than inlets. In contrast, Diatoma mesodon, Fragilaria capucina, and Gomphonema parvulum had higher average abundances in south basin inlets than outlets. The spatial patterns in species composition reflected the hierarchical interaction of landscape features (geology, hydrology) on longitudinal gradients (lake position) in the stream/lake network.  相似文献   

15.
Water source and lake landscape position can strongly influence the physico‐chemical characteristics of flowing waters over space and time. We examined the physico‐chemical heterogeneity in surface waters of an alpine stream‐lake network (>2600 m a.s.l.) in Switzerland. The catchment comprises two basins interspersed with 26 cirque lakes. The larger lakes in each basin are interconnected by streams that converge in a lowermost lake with an outlet stream. The north basin is primarily fed by precipitation and groundwater, whereas the south basin is fed mostly by glacial melt from rock glaciers. Surface flow of the entire channel network contracted by ～60% in early autumn, when snowmelt runoff ceased and cold temperatures reduced glacial outputs, particularly in the south basin. Average water temperatures were ～4 °C cooler in the south basin, and temperatures increased by about 4–6 °C along the longitudinal gradient within each basin. Although overall water conductivity was low (<27 µS cm?1) because of bedrock geology (ortho‐gneiss), the south basin had two times higher conductivity values than the north basin. Phosphate‐phosphorus levels were below analytical detection limits, but particulate phosphorus was about four times higher in the north basin (seasonal average: 9 µg l?1) than in the south basin (seasonal average: 2 µg l?1). Dissolved nitrogen constituents were around two times higher in the south basin than in the north basin, with highest values averaging > 300 µg l?1 (nitrite + nitrate‐nitrogen), whereas particulate nitrogen was approximately nine times greater in the north basin (seasonal average: 97 µg l?1) than in the south basin (seasonal average: 12 µg l?1). Total inorganic carbon was low (usually <0·8 mg l?1), silica was sufficient for algal growth, and particulate organic carbon was 4·5 times higher in the north basin (average: 0·9 mg l?1) than in the south basin (average: 0·2 mg l?1). North‐basin streams showed strong seasonality in turbidity, particulate‐nitrogen and ‐phosphorus, and particulate organic carbon, whereas strong seasonality in south‐basin streams was observed in conductivity and dissolved nitrogen. Lake position influenced the seasonal dynamics in stream temperatures and nutrients, particularly in the groundwater/precipitation‐fed north‐basin network. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.  相似文献   

17.
Potential future changes in lake physical processes (e.g. stratification and freezing) can be assessed through exploring their sensitivity to climate change, and assessing the current vulnerability of different lake types to plausible changes in meteorological drivers. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change and sensitivity of lake physical processes within a large (5100 km2) Precambrian Shield catchment in south‐central Ontario. Historic regional relationships are established between climate drivers, lake morphology, and lake physical changes through generalized linear modelling (GLM), and are used to quantify likely changes in timing of ice phenology and lake stratification across 72 lakes under a range of future climate models and scenarios. In response to projections of increased temperature (ensemble mean of +3.3 °C), both earlier ice‐off and onset of summer stratification were projected, with later ice‐on and fall turnover compared to the baseline. Process sensitivity to climate change varied by lake type; shallower lakes with a smaller volume (less than 15 m deep and less than 0.05 km3) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake heating (stratification onset and ice‐off), and deeper lakes with a larger surface area (greater than 30 m deep and greater than 1000 ha) were more sensitive to processes associated with lake cooling (fall turnover and ice‐on). These results indicate that whereas small lakes are vulnerable to climate warming because of changes that occur in spring and summer, larger lakes are particularly sensitive during the fall. The findings suggest that lake morphology and associated sensitivity should be considered in the development of sustainable lake management strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The influence of urbanization on the temperature of small streams is widely recognized, but these effects are confounded by the great natural variety of their contributing watersheds. To evaluate the relative importance of local‐scale and watershed‐scale factors on summer temperatures in urban streams, hundreds of near‐instantaneous temperature measurements throughout the central Puget Lowland, western Washington State, were collected during a single 2‐h period in August in each of the years 1998–2001. Stream temperatures ranged from 8.9 to 27.5 °C, averaging 15.4 °C. Pairwise correlation coefficients between stream temperature and four watershed variables (total watershed area and the watershed percentages of urban development, upstream lakes, and permeable glacial outwash soils as an indicator of groundwater exchange) were uniformly very low. Akaike's information criterion was applied to determine the best‐supported sets of watershed‐scale predictor variables for explaining the variability of stream temperatures. For the full four‐year dataset, the only well‐supported model was the global model (using all watershed variables); for the most voluminous single‐year (1999) data, Akaike's information criterion showed greatest support for per cent outwash (Akaike weight of 0.44), followed closely by per cent urban development + per cent outwash, per cent lake area only, and the global model. Upstream lakes resulted in downstream warming of up to 3 °C; variability in riparian shading imposed a similar temperature range. Watershed urbanization itself is not the most important determining factor for summer temperatures in this region; even the long‐recognized effects of riparian shading can be no more influential than those imposed by other local‐scale and watershed‐scale factors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号