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1.
From a geological perspective, deep natural gas resources generally are defined as occurring in reservoirs below 15,000 feet, whereas ultradeep gas occurs below 25,000 feet. From an operational point of view, deep may be thought of in a relative sense based on the geologic and engineering knowledge of gas (and oil) resources in a particular area. Deep gas occurs in either conventionally trapped or unconventional (continuous-type) basin-center accumulations that are essentially large single fields having spatial dimensions often exceeding those of conventional fields.Exploration for deep conventional and continuous-type basin-center natural gas resources deserves special attention because these resources are widespread and occur in diverse geologic environments. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that 939 TCF of technically recoverable natural gas remained to be discovered or was part of reserve appreciation from known fields in the onshore areas and state waters of the United States. Of this USGS resource, nearly 114 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable gas remains to be discovered from deep sedimentary basins. Worldwide estimates of deep gas also are high. The U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 Project recently estimated a world undiscovered conventional gas resource outside the U.S. of 844 Tcf below 4.5 km (about 15,000 feet).Less is known about the origins of deep gas than about the origins of gas at shallower depths because fewer wells have been drilled into the deeper portions of many basins. Some of the many factors contributing to the origin and accumulation of deep gas include the initial concentration of organic matter, the thermal stability of methane, the role of minerals, water, and nonhydrocarbon gases in natural gas generation, porosity loss with increasing depth and thermal maturity, the kinetics of deep gas generation, thermal cracking of oil to gas, and source rock potential based on thermal maturity and kerogen type. Recent experimental simulations using laboratory pyrolysis methods have provided much information on the origins of deep gas.Technologic problems are among the greatest challenges to deep drilling. Problems associated with overcoming hostile drilling environments (e.g. high temperatures and pressures, and acid gases such as CO2 and H2S) for successful well completion, present the greatest obstacles to drilling, evaluating, and developing deep gas fields. Even though the overall success ratio for deep wells (producing below 15,000 feet) is about 25%, a lack of geological and geophysical information continues to be a major barrier to deep gas exploration.Results of recent finding-cost studies by depth interval for the onshore U.S. indicate that, on average, deep wells cost nearly 10 times more to drill than shallow wells, but well costs and gas recoveries differ widely among different gas plays in different basins.Based on an analysis of natural gas assessments, deep gas holds significant promise for future exploration and development. Both basin-center and conventional gas plays could contain significant deep undiscovered technically recoverable gas resources.  相似文献   

2.
The US Geological Survey’s 1995 estimates of domestic undiscovered plus undeveloped natural gas nearly tripled quantities estimated in its 1989 Assessment. Much of the increase came from selected unconventional resources assessed using the paradigm of continuous-type accumulations. These include such seemingly unrelated “unconventional” gas occurrences as “tight gas,” coalbed gas, gas in shales, and deep basin-center gas. Though only a small fraction of the assessed 352 trillion cubic feet is now economic, the quantity is nevertheless significant. Moreover, the lowest cost resources are close to major gas markets where competing conventional gas is modest. With continued technological improvements these resources can contribute significantly to future U.S. gas supply, even without subsidies  相似文献   

3.
The U.S. Geological Survey periodically makes appraisals of the oil and gas resources of the Nation. In its 1995 National Assessment the onshore areas and adjoining State waters of the Nation were assessed. As part of the 1995 National Assessment, 274 conventional oil plays and 239 conventional nonassociated-gas plays were assessed. The two datasets of estimates studied herein are the following: (1) the mean, undiscovered, technically recoverable oil resources estimated for each of the 274 conventional oil plays, and (2) the mean, undiscovered, technically recoverable gas resources estimated for each of the 239 conventional nonassociatedgas plays. It was found that the two populations of petroleum estimates are both distributed approximately as lognormal distributions. Fractal lognormal percentage theory is developed and applied to the two populations of petroleum estimates. In both cases the theoretical percentages of total resources using the lognormal distribution are extremely close to the empirical percentages from the oil and nonassociated-gas data. For example, 20% of the 274 oil plays account for 73.05% of the total oil resources of the plays if the lognormal distribution is used, or for 75.52% if the data is used; 20% of the 239 nonassociated-gas plays account for 76.32% of the total nonassociated-gas resources of the plays if the lognormal distribution is used, or for 78.87% if the data is used  相似文献   

4.
Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs. Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools. Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access to exploration and the small size of many accumulations. Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results are shown and compared with results from Petrimes. In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure in such plays. Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially viable production. Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource. A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential.  相似文献   

5.
During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies.  相似文献   

6.
ARDS (version 4.01), a modified version of the Arps-Roberts discovery process model, was used to forecast the remaining oil and gas resources in more than 50 provinces, super-exploration plays, and individual plays in the onshore and offshore United States for the 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. The size distribution of oil and gas fields was estimated for the underlying distribution of fields; the size distribution for the remaining fields was calculated to be the difference between this distribution and that of discovered fields. The guidelines that govern the 1995 National Assessment require the underlying size distribution of fields to be estimated by using only data from two standard commercial data files (the NRG Associates field file and the Petroleum Information Inc. well file). However, a variety of situations required further modification of the discovery process modeling system; for example, multiple exploration plays that occurred nearly simultaneously and also displaced each other in time, and the phenomenon of field growth introduced a large bias in the forecasts produced by the discovery process models for some provinces.  相似文献   

7.
There is an ongoing discussion regarding the geologic nature of accumulations that host gas in low-permeability sandstone environments. This note examines the discovery sequence of the accumulations in low permeability sandstone plays that were classified as continuous-type by the U.S. Geological Survey for the 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. It compares the statistical character of historical discovery sequences of accumulations associated with continuous-type sandstone gas plays to those of conventional plays. The seven sandstone plays with sufficient data exhibit declining size with sequence order, on average, and in three of the seven the trend is statistically significant. Simulation experiments show that both a skewed endowment size distribution and a discovery process that mimics sampling proportional to size are necessary to generate a discovery sequence that consistently produces a statistically significant negative size order relationship. The empirical findings suggest that discovery sequence could be used to constrain assessed gas in untested areas. The plays examined represent 134 of the 265 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas assessed in undeveloped areas of continuous-type gas plays in low permeability sandstone environments reported in the 1995 National Assessment.  相似文献   

8.
Faced with an ever-increasing diversity of demand for the use of public lands, managers and planners are turning more often to a multiple-use approach to meet those demands. This approach requires the uses to be mutually compatible and to utilize the more valuable attributes or resource values of the land. Therefore, it is imperative that planners be provided with all available information on attribute and resource values in a timely fashion and in a format that facilitates a comparative evaluation.The Kootenai National Forest administration enlisted the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines to perform a quantitative assessment of future copper/silver production potential within the forest from sediment-hosted copper deposits in the Revett Formation that are similar to those being mined at the Troy Mine near Spar Lake. The U.S. Geological Survey employed a quantitative assessment technique that compared the favorable host terrane in the Kootenai area with worldwide examples of known sediment-hosted copper deposits. The assessment produced probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits that may be present in the area and of the copper and silver endowment that might be contained in them.Results of the assessment suggest that the copper/silver deposit potential is highest in the southwestern one-third of the forest. In this area there is an estimated 50 percent probability of at least 50 additional deposits occurring mostly within approximately 260,000 acres where the Revett Formation is thought to be present in the subsurface at depths of less than 1,500 meters. A Monte Carlo type simulation using data on the grade and tonnage characteristics of other known silver-rich, sediment-hosted copper deposits predicts a 50 percent probability that these undiscovered deposits will contain at least 19 million tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of silver. Combined with endowments estimated for identified, but not thoroughly explored deposits, and deposits that might also occur in the remaining area of the forest, the endowment potential increases to 23 million tonnes of copper and 190,000 tonnes of silver.  相似文献   

9.
This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis.  相似文献   

10.
A geostochastic system called FASPF was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for their 1989 assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources in the United States. FASPF is a fast appraisal system for petroleum play analysis using a field-size geological model and an analytic probabilistic methodology. The geological model is a particular type of probability model whereby the volumes of oil and gas accumulations are modeled as statistical distributions in the form of probability histograms, and the risk structure is bilevel (play and accumulation) in terms of conditional probability. The probabilistic methodology is an analytic method derived from probability theory rather than Monte Carlo simulation. The resource estimates of crude oil and natural gas are calculated and expressed in terms of probability distributions. The probabilistic methodology developed by the author is explained.The analytic system resulted in a probabilistic methodology for play analysis, subplay analysis, economic analysis, and aggregation analysis. Subplay analysis included the estimation of petroleum resources on non-Federal offshore areas. Economic analysis involved the truncation of the field size with a minimum economic cutoff value. Aggregation analysis was needed to aggregate individual play and subplay estimates of oil and gas, respectively, at the provincial, regional, and national levels.  相似文献   

11.
This paper provides a new method to estimate recovery factors of oil resources. The China National Petroleum Assessment (2003–2007) (CNPA 2007) evaluates in-place oil resources and applies the recovery factor (RF) to estimate recoverable oil resources. The RF of oil resources plays an important role in the CNPA 2007. Based on the geological features, 24 types of oil assessment units are defined, such as the Mesozoic rift unit, the Mesozoic and Cenozoic foreland unit, etc. Through the recovery factor statistics of oil reserves (discovered) in different accumulations, as well as the potential analyses of enhanced petroleum recovery, appropriate RF valuing standards of oil resources (discovered and undiscovered) in different assessment units are developed. Calculation methods of oil resource RFs are established, including the appraisal standards, scoring, and calculation steps of oil resource RFs. Through the case studies, the valuing and appraisal standards of oil resource RFs are verified. Robust appraisal standards allow the RF method to be a valuable tool to effective assessment of China’s recoverable oil resources.  相似文献   

12.
Various methods for assessing undiscovered oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid resources were compared in support of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Discovery process, linear fractal, parabolic fractal, engineering estimates, PETRIMES, Delphi, and the USGS 2000 methods were compared. Three comparisons of these methods were made in: (1) the Neuquen Basin province, Argentina (different assessors, same input data); (2) provinces in North Africa, Oman, and Yemen (same assessors, different methods); and (3) the Arabian Peninsula, Arabian (Persian) Gulf, and North Sea (different assessors, different methods). A fourth comparison (same assessors, same assessment methods but different geologic models), between results from structural and stratigraphic assessment units in the North Sea used only the USGS 2000 method, and hence compared the type of assessment unit rather than the method. In comparing methods, differences arise from inherent differences in assumptions regarding: (1) the underlying distribution of the parent field population (all fields, discovered and undiscovered), (2) the population of fields being estimated; that is, the entire parent distribution or the undiscovered resource distribution, (3) inclusion or exclusion of large outlier fields; (4) inclusion or exclusion of field (reserve) growth, (5) deterministic or probabilistic models, (6) data requirements, and (7) scale and time frame of the assessment. Discovery process, Delphi subjective consensus, and the USGS 2000 method yield comparable results because similar procedures are employed. In mature areas such as the Neuquen Basin province in Argentina, the linear and parabolic fractal and engineering methods were conservative compared to the other five methods and relative to new reserve additions there since 1995. The PETRIMES method gave the most optimistic estimates in the Neuquen Basin. In less mature areas, the linear fractal method yielded larger estimates relative to other methods. A geologically based model, such as one using the total petroleum system approach, is preferred in that it combines the elements of petroleum source, reservoir, trap and seal with the tectono-stratigraphic history of basin evolution with petroleum resource potential. Care must be taken to demonstrate that homogeneous populations in terms of geology, geologic risk, exploration, and discovery processes are used in the assessment process. The USGS 2000 method (7th Approximation Model, EMC computational program) is robust; that is, it can be used in both mature and immature areas, and provides comparable results when using different geologic models (e.g. stratigraphic or structural) with differing amounts of subdivisions, assessment units, within the total petroleum system.  相似文献   

13.
The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.  相似文献   

14.
Considering the important role played today by unconventional gas resources in North America and their enormous potential for the future around the world, it is vital to both policy makers and industry that the volumes of these resources and the impact of technology on these resources be assessed. To provide for optimal decision making regarding energy policy, research funding, and resource development, it is necessary to reliably quantify the uncertainty in these resource assessments. Since the 1970s, studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources have been conducted by various private and governmental agencies, the most rigorous of which was by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS employed a cell-based, probabilistic methodology which used analytical equations to calculate distributions of the resources assessed. USGS assessments have generally produced distributions for potential unconventional gas resources that, in our judgment, are unrealistically narrow for what are essentially undiscovered, untested resources. In this article, we present an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. Our methodology is a stochastic approach that includes Monte Carlo simulation and correlation between input variables. Application of the improved methodology to the Uinta–Piceance province of Utah and Colorado with USGS data validates the means and standard deviations of resource distributions produced by the USGS methodology, but reveals that these distributions are not right skewed, as expected for a natural resource. Our investigation indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the gas resource distributions are caused by the use of narrow triangular input parameter distributions. The stochastic methodology proposed here is more versatile and robust than the USGS analytic methodology. Adoption of the methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input distributions, should allow a more realistic assessment of the uncertainty surrounding potential unconventional gas resources.  相似文献   

15.
Quantitative assessments and analyses of mineral resources can provide important input to decisions affecting public lands. This article, a companion article to Spanski, 1992, presents an application of resource assessment and analysis tools developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey to U.S. Forest Service lands in northwest Montana. The analytical system described here integrates mineral deposit models, mine and mill cost-estimation models, and relevant economic and policy assumptions to estimate potential mineral production and the associated direct and indirect mineral-related economic impacts that could follow development of minerals. Finally, the impacts of land-use policies are estimated using the model.  相似文献   

16.
There is an inbuilt correlation between estimated quantities of oil and gas produced by probabilistic assessments of undiscovered oil and gas resources. Correlation between assessed quantities of oil and gas occurs at every level, whether prospects, plays, basins, continents, or the world. Providing that the oil and gas are assessed in the same run of the computer program, the correlation can be calculated using the paired values of the undiscovered oil and gas volumes calculated in each of the Monte Carlo simulations. It can be seen in the shape and density of a point plot of these paired values. Alternatively, the correlation can be calculated theoretically using an equation written in terms of the data input to the assessment program. These commonly include distributions for the number of accumulations (N), the success rate (s), the accumulation sizes (V), an oil to gas conversion factor, and a proportion of oil to oil plus gas (P OOG). The cause of the correlation is investigated and explained using point plots and equations for a variety of input distributions. The shape and density of each plot are determined by the pattern of the numbers of oil and gas accumulations, the sizes of the accumulations, and the proportions of oil to oil plus gas. The correlation is caused by the dispersion or spread of the input distributions. It may be positive or negative, tending toward positive as the dispersions ofN, s, andV increase and the dispersion ofP OOG decreases. The correlation indicates that there is a relationship between the undiscovered oil and gas resources that may be described by fitting a linear regression to a plot of the paired values of the total oil and gas resources. The relationship should be quoted as part of the assessment and might be used to make a better estimate of the value of the undiscovered resources.  相似文献   

17.
The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a technique that allows mineral resource experts to apply economic filters to estimates of undiscovered mineral resources. This technique builds on previous work that developed quantitative methods for mineral resource assessments. A Monte-Carlo calculation uses mineral deposit models to estimate commodity grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits. The results then are analyzed using simple estimates of capital expenditures and daily operating costs for a mine and associated mill. The daily operating costs and the value of the ore are used to calculate the net present value of the deposit, which is compared to the capital expenditures to determine whether the deposit is economic. Repetition of these calculations for many deposits produces a table that can be interpreted in terms of the probability of there being deposits that have anet present value exceeding some specified amount. Sample calculations indicate that applying economic filters to simulated mineral resources might change the perception of the results compared to presenting the calculations in terms of the expected mean gross-in-place value of the minerals.  相似文献   

18.
An annotated bibliography of methodology of assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources is presented as a useful reference for those engaged in resource assessment. The articles that are included deal only with quantitative assessment of undiscovered or inferred resources. the articles in this bibliography are classified largely according to the major assessment method that was applied in each situation. Major assessment methods include areal and volumetric yield methods, field size distributions, historical extrapolation, deposit modeling, organic geochemical mass balance methods, and direct expert assessment. Other categories include mathematical tools, reserve growth/confirmation, quantitative characterization of undiscovered resources, and general topics. For the purpose of future updates, we solicit contributions of articles that may have been missed in the preparation of this bibliography.  相似文献   

19.
This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries and an analysis of energy economics prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight-gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and U and Th resources and associated rare earth elements of industrial interest. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report.  相似文献   

20.
This paper describes an assessment of the enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resource base of the conterminous United States, using constructed temperature at depth maps. The temperature at depth maps were computed from 3 to 10 km, for every km. The methodology is described. Factors included are sediment thickness, thermal conductivity variations, distribution of the radioactive heat generation and surface temperature based on several geologic models of the upper 10 km of the crust. EGS systems are extended in this paper to include coproduced geothermal energy, and geopressured resources. A table is provided that summarizes the resource base estimates for all components of the EGS geothermal resource. By far, the conduction-dominated components of EGS represent the largest component of the U.S. resource. Nonetheless, the coproduced resources and geopressured resources are large and significant targets for short and intermediate term development. There is a huge resource base between the depths of 3 and 8 km, where the temperature reaches 150–250°C. Even if only 2% of the conventional EGS resource is developed, the energy recovered would be equivalent to roughly 2,500 times the annual consumption of primary energy in the U.S. in 2006. Temperatures above 150°C at those depths are more common in the active tectonic regions of the western conterminous U.S., but are not confined to those areas. In the central and eastern U.S. there are identified areas of moderate size that are of reasonable grade and probably small areas of much higher grade than predicted by this analyses. However because of the regional (the grid size is 5′ × 5′) scale of this study such potentially promising sites remain to be identified. Several possible scenarios for EGS development are discussed. The most promising and least costly may to be developments in abandoned or shut-in oil and gas fields, where the temperatures are high enough. Because thousands of wells are already drilled in those locations, the cost of producing energy from such fields could be significantly lowered. In addition many hydrocarbon fields are producing large amounts of co-produced water, which is necessary for geothermal development. Although sustainability is not addressed in this study, the resource is so large that in at least some scenarios of development the geothermal resource is sustainable for long periods of time.  相似文献   

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