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1.
基于RS和GIS的西双版纳土地覆被动态变化 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
人口增加、经济发展导致滇南热带地区西双版纳土地利用/土地覆被发生显著变化,这些变化对该区的生态环境及生物多样性保护有着重要影响。基于RS和GIS方法,通过对1976、1988和2003年三个时期遥感影像解译分析,试图了解西双版纳近27 a间土地利用/土地覆被时空变化特征及影响因素。结果表明,近27 a间有林地在西双版纳分布最广、占绝对优势,其中以亚热带常绿阔叶林面积最大;但在研究时段内,有林地面积不断减少、呈现破碎化,尤其是热带季节雨林、山地雨林面积减少最为明显和破碎化最为严重。相应,橡胶园、灌木林面积不断扩大并聚集成片,其中橡胶园在1988~2003年间是面积增长最快、最多的地类,其面积扩张主要来源于对热带季节雨林的砍伐。轮歇地面积在1976~1988年是所有地类中增长最快、最多的,在1988~2003年由于向橡胶园转变而大幅度减小。粗放式的刀耕火种和橡胶种植园的不断扩大是主导本区土地利用/土地覆被变化的主要因素,土地利用变化导致了本区生态环境的退化和生物多样性的丢失。 相似文献
2.
Temperate forest represents the smallest area among the main world's forest biomes, but is one of those most threatened by forest loss. Chile contains most of the temperate forest in South America and more than half of the temperate forest in the southern hemisphere. Chilean temperate forest is considered to be one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. In this study we assessed the rate of land use and land cover (LULC) change over time, identified the main LULCs replacing native forest, and described how changes have evolved in contrasting physiographical conditions and through different historical phases of the landscape over the last 40 years. To achieve this, we analysed LULC change with particular focus on forest cover in three areas representing different physiographical conditions and histories of human occupation in the Araucanía Region of Chile, namely the Central Valley, the Coastal range, and the Andean range. We found substantial differences in temporal and intra-regional patterns of forest loss and LULC change. In the Central Valley, forest loss started long ago, and the area occupied by native forest nowadays is less than 5% of the landscape. In the Coastal range, rapid land cover change has taken place since 1973, with an increasing rate of forest loss over time. We detected a similar but less intense pattern in the forests of the Andean range. Overall, the general pattern points to a process of landscape homogenization in all three physiographical areas. Exotic tree plantations have spread over large geographical areas, becoming the dominant land cover. Land cover change in the Araucanía Region reflects a model of change in which areas with better environmental conditions and accessibility are occupied first for productive activities. As the availability of suitable areas for the expansion of productive activities diminishes, these activities start to move into physiographical areas which were previously “protected” by adverse environmental conditions or poor accessibility. This model of production growth could lead to the complete deforestation of areas outside national protected areas, and other areas which still remain inaccessible due to technological restrictions on exploitation. 相似文献
3.
Land use/cover, landforms and fragmentation patterns in a tropical dry forest in the southern Pacific region of Mexico 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Leopoldo Galicia Alba Esmeralda Zarco-Arista Karla Ivette Mendoza-Robles José Luis Palacio-Prieto Arturo García-Romero 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2008,29(2):137-154
In spite of widely documented studies of deforestation rates and land use/cover changes in tropical dry forests in Mexico, relatively little is known about fragmentation patterns in such forests. This study defines the spatial distribution of landforms and land use/cover types the lower Papagayo River basin and examines their influence on fragmentation patterns and biological diversity in a tropical dry forest in that southern Pacific region. The land use/cover map was constructed from aerial photographs, Landsat TM imagery (2000) and fieldwork. Landform units were defined based on altitude, slope, lithology and morphology. Landscape fragmentation parameters were obtained using FRAGSTATS (version 3.3) considering the numbers of patches, mean, minimum and maximum patch size, edge density, total edge and connectivity. Results show tropical dry forest to be remnant vegetation (~11 per cent), characterized by isolation and low connectivity. Land use/cover types have different effects on fragmentation patterns. Agriculture and cattle raising produce similar numbers of patches, but with a different mean size; and human settlements have a scattered distribution pattern. The abandonment of rural agricultural livelihoods has favoured the expansion of secondary tropical dry forest characterized by continuity and high connectivity, which suggests a high regeneration potential from land abandonment. It can be concluded that tropical dry forest fragmentation and recovery at regional scales depend on such landscape attributes as lithology, slope, geomorphology and management. 相似文献
4.
Stephen G. Perz 《The Professional geographer》2007,59(1):105-114
This article critically reviews forest transition theory, which posits a decline in forest cover followed by expansion during the course of development. Whereas case studies in advanced industrial nations provided an empirical foundation, more recent cross‐national modeling efforts and studies in developing regions have raised doubts. Forest transition theory has limitations in its concept of forests, its treatment of forest dynamics, its explanation for forest transitions, and its generalizability. This critique provides the basis for research needs to link studies of forest dynamics on various timescales to other land use/land cover research, as via historical‐comparative methods and interdisciplinary theoretical frameworks. 相似文献
5.
Tropical forests have been recognized as having global conservation importance. However, they are being rapidly destroyed in many regions of the world. Regular monitoring of forests is necessary for an adaptive management approach and the successful implementation of ecosystem management. The present study analyses the temporal changes in forest ecosystem structure in tribal dominated Malkangiri district of Orissa, India, during 1973–2004 period based on digitized forest cover maps using geographic information system (GIS) and interpretation of satellite data. Three satellite images Landsat MSS (1973), Landsat TM (1990) and IRS P6 LISS III (2004) were used to determine changes. Six land cover types were delineated which includes dense forest, open forest, scrub land, agriculture, barren land and water body. Different forest types were also demarcated within forest class for better understanding the degradation pattern in each forest types. The results showed that there was a net decrease of 475.7 km2 forest cover (rate of deforestation = 2.34) from 1973 to 1990 and 402.3 km2 (rate of deforestation = 2.27) from 1990 to 2004. Forest cover has changed over time depending on a few factors such as large-scale deforestation, shifting cultivation, dam and road construction, unregulated management actions, and social pressure. A significant increase of 1222.8 km2 agriculture area (1973–2004) clearly indicated the conversion of forest cover to agricultural land. These alterations had resulted in significant environmental consequences, including decline in forest cover, soil erosion, and loss of biodiversity. There is an urgent need for rational management of the remaining forest for it to be able to survive beyond next decades. Particular attention must be paid to tropical forests, which are rapidly being deforested. 相似文献
6.
湿地景观格局的动态变化与区域土地利用/覆盖格局的变化有着十分紧密的联系。以纳帕海、碧塔海和属都湖三块高原湿地所在的云南省香格里拉县建塘镇为例,在遥感和GIS技术的支持下,对该区域1974、1987和2000三期Landsat TM(ETM)影像进行了解译,分析了26 a间的土地利用/覆盖变化规律,并结合景观格局动态分析的方法,借助FRAGSTATS软件定量分析了该区景观格局特征及其动态变化。结果表明:该区土地利用/覆盖状况变化显著,主要土地利用/覆盖类型有林地以822 hm2/a的速度在大面积减少,并主要转为灌木林地,使得后者在26 a间扩大高达17倍,变化幅度最大。建设用地和耕地的面积分别扩大了6倍和2倍,而草地和雪地面积持续减少。相应地,该区景观格局定量分析显示,有林地的斑块密度增大而平均斑块面积减小迅速,呈破碎化趋势,灌木林地的斑块密度、平均斑块面积均增加,草地则与之相反均减小,耕地的斑块密度降低而平均斑块面积增加,在不断融合成大斑块,其余各景观单元斑块密度增大平均斑块面积减小,同时各斑块几何形状在1987年变化最剧烈,景观格局趋于复杂。 相似文献
7.
热带森林覆被的时空动态评价——以印度Malkangiri district of Orissa为例 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Tropical forests have been recognized as having global conservation importance. However,they are being rapidly destroyed in many regions of the world. Regular monitoring of forests is necessary for an adaptive management approach and the successful implementation of ecosystem management. The present study analyses the temporal changes in forest ecosystem structure in tribal dominated Malkangiri district of Orissa,India,during 1973-2004 period based on digitized forest cover maps using geographic information system (GIS) and interpretation of satellite data. Three satellite images Landsat MSS (1973),Landsat TM (1990) and IRS P6 LISS III (2004) were used to determine changes. Six land cover types were delineated which includes dense forest,open forest,scrub land,agriculture,barren land and water body. Different forest types were also demarcated within forest class for better understanding the degradation pattern in each forest types. The results showed that there was a net decrease of 475.7 km2 forest cover (rate of deforestation = 2.34) from 1973 to 1990 and 402.3 km2 (rate of deforestation = 2.27) from 1990 to 2004. Forest cover has changed over time depending on a few factors such as large-scale deforestation,shifting cultivation,dam and road construction,unregulated management actions,and social pressure. A significant increase of 1222.8 km2 agriculture area (1973-2004) clearly indicated the conversion of forest cover to agricultural land. These alterations had resulted in significant environmental consequences,including decline in forest cover,soil erosion,and loss of biodiversity. There is an urgent need for rational management of the remaining forest for it to be able to survive beyond next decades. Particular attention must be paid to tropical forests,which are rapidly being deforested. 相似文献
8.
Peter D. Richards 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):343-363
From 1945 to 2000, the extent of Paraguay's Atlantic Forest was reduced from 73,000 to 12,000 square kilometers. Deforestation rates were exceptionally high from the late 1960s through to the end of the century. During this period, dual agricultural frontiers pushed into the region from both east and west, resulting in a production landscape defined by two principal commodities: soybeans and cotton. This article considers the expansion and contraction of these industries and addresses their impacts on the region's forest cover. Findings suggest that the role of cotton and smallholder agriculture has been greatly diminished as a driver of land cover change in the region since 1990. High rates of forest loss were sustained, however, partly as a result of continued pressure for agricultural expansion for soy production. 相似文献
9.
Mangrove forests provide vital ecosystem services for millions of people living in coastal communities. The expansion of aquaculture production and urbanization have been identified as major causes of mangrove clearance in South-East Asia. The Ca Mau peninsula in Vietnam is leading the country in shrimp aquaculture and at the same time, the region is home to the largest remaining mangrove forests. This study aims to assess the spatial and temporal mangrove forest dynamics in Ngoc Hien district in Ca Mau. Land cover change and fragmentation are quantified using remote sensing imagery consisting of a series of SPOT5 scenes from 2004, 2009 and 2013. The results indicate a high turnover of land cover change, with close to half of the mangrove forests being affected by land cover changes between 2004 and 2014. Net changes in mangrove forest are found to average −0.34% annually, characterized by deforestation between 2004 and 2009 and afforestation of between 2009 and 2013. Fragmentation remains a plausible threat; approximately 35.4% of the mangrove forests in Ngoc Hien are part of interior ‘core’ forests. Forest zones with different regulation regimes play a significant role in shaping the geographic distribution of mangrove forest changes. The insights into recent mangrove forest dynamics facilitate the informed discussion on improving future protection of the mangrove forests abiding anthropogenic pressures. 相似文献
10.
林地是维护生态安全,实现区域可持续发展的根本基础资源。林地变化可能导致一些生态环境问题,包括土壤侵蚀,水资源短缺,干旱加剧以及生物多样性的丧失。本文以景观生态学和逻辑回归模型为基础,探讨了京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化的时空格局及其影响因素。格局分析结果表明,林地景观破碎化正在下降和林地形状变得越来越规则。通过建立Logistic回归模型,这项研究旨在探讨这一区域1985-2000期间林地变化的重要变量。对于京津冀地区1985-2000期间林地变化而言,土壤有机质含量,坡度(5°),到最近村庄的距离以及人均国内生产总值是最重要的解释变量。研究表明,空间异质性会影响到林地变化的逻辑回归模型的可预测性。 相似文献
11.
Loss of native forest is a key conservation concern globally, for reasons of biodiversity, climate change and ecosystem services. Landscape measures are used widely to characterize forest loss and associated landscape structure, but often without regard for structure imposed by the data used, and associated assumptions. Notably, forest loss is often expressed simply as net change in forest cover over time, but this approach does not account for turnover (i.e. the gross losses and gains of forest). It also ignores forest age (e.g. young regrowth forest or mature forest), which is significant in conservation terms. We investigate the effects of removing common data constraints on landscape characterization, as typically used in landscape dynamic analyses. We produced fine-resolution (0.0225 ha) classified maps from satellite imagery of the temperate Araucanía Region of Chile, for 1986, 1999 and 2008. We calculated areas of land-use classes and associated landscape indices. Landscape measures and trends through time varied markedly around the region, with forest loss and fragmentation confined to areas not designated as protected. Net (‘headline’) figures masked very large turnover through time, with about 30% of unprotected land switching land use each decade. Accounting for this, in unprotected areas the loss of established native forest was 2.4% and 3.5% per year in the two time periods, much higher than equivalent ‘standard’ figures. Using finer-resolution data increased estimates of native forest loss and reversed temporal trends in patch density and mean patch size, compared with the commonly-used National Vegetation Classification (6.25 and 4.5 ha resolution). Interestingly, mean patch size of native forest actually switched, from a decreasing trend to an increasing one, with continued deforestation. We conclude that landscape characterization can lead to effective conservation practices, but it is necessary to use appropriate data resolution, define the data domain carefully and examine change through time, including the degree of dynamism (turnover) within the landscape: our results suggest a strong need to consider continuity of forest cover as well as overall totals. 相似文献
12.
Based on the information from forest resources distribution maps of Luoning County of 1983 and 1999, six indices were used to analyze spatial patterns and dynamics of forest landscapes of the typical region in the middle of the Yihe-Luohe river basin. These indices include patch number, mean patch area, fragment index, patch extension index, etc. The results showed that: (1) There was a rapid increase in the number of patch and total area from 1983 to 1999 in the study area. The fragment degree became very high. (2) The area of all the forest patch types had witnessed great changes. The fractal degree of each forest patch type became big from 1983 to 1999. The mean extension index of Robinia pseudoacacia forest, non-forest, shrub forest, sparse forest, and Quercus species forest increased rapidly, but that of economic forest became zero. The fractal dimension each showed that forest coverage has been promoted. (3) The changes of landscape patterns were different in different geomorphic regions. From 1983 to 1999 the vegetation cover area, the gross number and the density of patch, diversity and evenness of landscape were all reduced greatly in gullies and ravines, but the maximum area and the mean area of patch types were increased. In hilly region, both the forest cover area and the number of patch increased from 1983 to 1999, but the mean area of patch was reduced greatly. In mountain region, even though the area under forest canopy reduced from 1983 to 1999, the patch number was increased greatly, the mean area of all patch types was reduced, the extension index, diversity index and evenness index of landscape were all increased. Furthermore, because of different types of land use, human activity and terrain, the vegetation changes on northern and southern mountain slopes were different. According to these analyses, the main driving forces, such as the policies of management, market economy, influence of human activities etc. are brought out. 相似文献
13.
Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva Mateus Batistella Emilio Federico Moran Dengsheng Lu 《The Professional geographer》2017,69(1):80-93
The Atlantic Forest biome has only 13 percent of its pristine vegetation cover left. This article analyzes the consequences of land changes on forest cover in the Paraíba Valley, São Paulo state, Brazil, from 1985 to 2011. Multitemporal satellite image classifications were carried out to map eight land use and land cover classes. The forest cover increased from 2,696 km2 in 1985 to 4,704 km2 in 2011, mostly over areas of degraded pastures. The highest rates of afforestation were observed within protected areas around eucalyptus plantations. On the other hand, deforestation processes were concentrated on areas covered by secondary forests. Socioeconomic changes taking place in particular Brazilian settings, such as industrialization and agricultural modernization, allied to the Paraíba Valley's natural biophysical constraints for agricultural production, have led the region to experience a remarkable case of forest transition. 相似文献
14.
Tropical forests play a major role in storing large carbon stocks and regulating energy, and water fluxes, but such forest cover is decreasing rapidly in spite of the policy attention on reducing deforestation. High-resolution spatiotemporal maps are unavailable for the forests in majority of the tropical regions in Asia because of the persistent cloud cover and haze cover. Recent advances in radar remote sensing have provided weather-independent data of earth surface, thus offering an opportunity to monitor tropical forest change processes with relatively high spatiotemporal resolutions. In this research, we aim to examine the tropical deforestation process and develop a spatial model to simulate future forest patterns under various scenarios. Riau Province from central Sumatra of Indonesia is selected as the study area; this province has received much attention worldwide because the highest CO2 emission resulting from tropical deforestation has been recorded. Annual time series PALSAR data from 2007 to 2010 were analyzed for forest mapping and detecting land cover changes. A spatial model was calibrated using the Bayesian method. Modeling parameters were customized for the local subregions that allocate deforestation on the basis of their empirical relationships to physical and socioeconomic drivers. The model generated landscape spatial patterns mirrored the possible locations and extent of deforested areas by 2030 and provided time-series crucial information on forest landscape under various scenarios for future landscape management projects. The results suggested that the current deforestation process is in a critical stage where some subregions may face unprecedented stress on primary forest costing rivers and forest ecosystems by the end of 2020. The perspective views of Riau Province generated by the model highlighted the need for forest/environmental planning controls for the conservation of environmentally sensitive areas. 相似文献
15.
近20年来伊洛河流域典型地区森林景观格局动态 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Based on the information from forest resources distribution maps of Luoning County of 1983 and 1999,six indices were used to analyze spatial patterns and dynamics of forest landscapes of the typical region in the middle of the Yihe-Luohe river basin.These indices include patch number,mean patch area,fragment index,patdch extension index,etc,The results showed that;(1) There was a rapid increase in the number of patch and total area from 1983 to 1999 in the study area,The fragment degree became very high.(2) The area of all the forest patch types had witnessed great changes,The fractal degree of each forest patch type became big from 1983 to 1999 ,The mean extension index of Robinia pseudoacacia forest ,non- forest shrub forest ,sparse forest ,and Quercus species forest in creased rapidly,but that of economic forest became zero ,The fractal dimension each showed that forest coverage has been promoted.(3)The changes of landscape patterns were different in different geomprhic regions.From 1983 to 1999 the vegetation cover area,the gross number and the density of patch,diversity and evenness of landscape were all reduced greatly in gullies and ravines,but the maximum area and the mean area of patch types were increased ,In hilly region,both the forest cover area and the number of patch increased from 1983 to 1999,but the mean area of patch was reduced greatly,In mountain region,even though the area under forest canopy reduced from 1983 to 1999 ,the patch number was increased greatly,the mean area of all patch types was reduced ,the extension index,diversity index and evenness index of landscape were all increased.Furthermore,because of different types of land use,human activtiy and terratin ,the vegetation changes on northern and southern mountain slopes were different.According to these analyses,the main driving forces,such as the policies of management,market economy,influence of human activities etc.are brought out. 相似文献
16.
The subtropical Atlantic Forest is a highly diverse ecosystem in South America and one of the most endangered rain forests in the world. The present study focuses specifically on the Paraguayan part of the tri-national Atlantic Forest. Over the last decades, the Paraguayan Atlantic Forest presented one of the highest deforestation rates in the world, and today, only a small share remains. Hence, forest loss in Paraguay's Atlantic Forest was detected and analysed through remote sensing and GIS methodologies based on Landsat images obtained in 2003 and 2013. The objective of this study was to examine the spatial impact of forest loss in Paraguay's Atlantic Forest over the past decade with a special focus on biodiversity conservation. Classifications results obtained overall accuracies above 83% and revealed that over 6000 km2 of forest was cleared during the study period. The forest landscape and its fragmentation level were characterised through a set of landscape metrics, in particular the proximity analysis which support the identification of forest priority areas for nature conservation and potential biological corridors. In summary, the study revealed that deforestation and fragmentation of the Atlantic Forest area continued, but at a slower pace than that in the previous decade. Protected areas were conserved very effectively; however, forest core areas without any protection status require further attention. Intact forest patches and their connectivity are a crucial prerequisite to biodiversity conservation in a highly fragmented forest area. The combination of different remote sensing and GIS methods provides valuable information for sustainable forest management in the region. 相似文献
17.
Utility of Landsat 7 satellite data for continued monitoring of forest cover change in protected areas in Southeast Asia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Simon N. Trigg Lisa M. Curran Alice K. McDonald 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(1):49-66
Satellite instruments, particularly the Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) and ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) series of sensors, are important tools in the interdisciplinary study of tropical forests that are increasingly integrated into studies that monitor changes in vegetation cover within tropical forests and tropical protected areas, and also applied with other types of data to investigate the drivers of land cover change. However, further advances in the use of Landsat to study and monitor tropical forests and protected areas are threatened by the scan line corrector failure on the ETM+ sensor, as well as uncertainty about the continuity of the Landsat mission. Given these problems, this paper illustrates how ETM+ data were used in an interdisciplinary study that effectively monitored forest cover change in Gunung Palung National Park in West Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. Following 31 May 2003, when the ETM+ sensor's scan line corrector failed, we analysed how this failure impedes our ability to perform a similar study from this date onwards. This analysis uses six simulated post-scan line corrector failure (SLC-off) images and reveals that data gaps caused by SLC-off introduce maximum errors of 1.47 per cent and 4.04 per cent in estimates of forest cover and rates of forest loss, respectively. The analysis also demonstrates how SLC-off has transformed ETM+ data from a complete inventory dataset to a statistical sample with variable sample fraction, and notes how this data loss will confound the use of Landsat data to model land cover change in a spatially explicit manner. We discuss potential limited uses of SLC-off data and suggest alternative sensors that may provide essential remotely sensed data for monitoring tropical forests in Southeast Asia. 相似文献
18.
In this study, historical landscape dynamics were investigated to (i) map the land use/cover types for the years 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2014; (ii) determine the types and processes of landscape dynamics; and (iii) assess the landscape fragmentation and habitat loss over time. Supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images was used through a pixel-based approach. Post–classification methods included systematic and random change detection, trajectories analysis and landscape fragmentation assessment. The overall accuracies (and Kappa statistics) were of 68.86% (0.63), 91.32% (0.79), 90.66% (0.88) and 91.88% (0.89) for 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2014, respectively. The spatio-temporal analyses indicated that forests, woodlands and savannahs dominated the landscapes during the four dates, though constant areal decreases were observed. The most important dynamic process was the decline of woodlands with an average annual net loss rate of–2%. Meanwhile, the most important land transformation occurred during the transition 2000–2014, due to anthropogenic pressures. Though the most important loss of vegetation greenness occurred in the unprotected areas, the overall analyses of change indicated a declining trend of land cover quality and an increasing landscape fragmentation. Sustainable conservation strategies should be promoted while focusing restoration attention on degraded lands and fragmented ecosystems in order to support rural livelihood and biodiversity conservation. 相似文献
19.
Traditional land use systems are threatened by land use intensification and resulting land cover transitions in northern areas. This article examines cumulative land cover changes and their impacts on reindeer grazing grounds in the Kyrö reindeer herding district in northern Finland. Land cover transitions were studied using Landsat TM and OLI images and topographic maps. The results showed that the herding district has experienced notable land cover changes during the past decades, and most of these changes were directly related to forestry. The proportion of continuous coniferous forests of the total forest cover declined from 92% to 78% between 1987 and 2013. Approximately one third of the forests outside current conservation areas were disturbed by forest management by 2013, and remaining forests were notably more fragmented than forests within conservation areas. The extent of the road and path networks expanded considerably between 1960s and 2010 as a result of increasing logging and tourism. Accumulation of disturbances gradually results in loss of key resources and declined quality of the landscape mosaic from the reindeer herding perspective, which can pose a serious threat to long-term sustainability of the livelihood. Rapid land cover changes in non-protected areas highlight an increasingly important role of conservation areas in maintaining resources for reindeer husbandry in the face of intensifying land use. Sustainable management of resources outside conservation areas requires careful participatory planning and efficient cumulative impact assessment of different land use activities. 相似文献
20.
Deforestation and forest degradation are proceeding rapidly in the lowland forests of Indonesian Borneo. Time series analysis of satellite imagery provides an ideal means of quantifying landscape change and identifying the pathways which lead to the changes. This study investigates the forest and land cover changes by classifying Landsat MSS (Multispectral Scanner), TM (Thematic Mapper) and ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) images over three time periods (1983–90, 1990–98, and 1998–2000), creating land cover maps for each year and change trajectories for each year-pair. The study area chosen covers an area of 2160 km2 of undulating topography and alluvial plains in the East Kutai District of East Kalimantan Province, which in the 1980s was covered mostly with lowland dipterocarp forest; today the landscape is a patchwork dominated by oil palm and timber plantations and degraded forest. We relate land cover change data to land use allocation and to fire impacts based on fire hotspot distribution and fire damage information. The multidate land cover change trajectories provide an insight into the forest loss and degradation pathways over the 17-year period spanning the first entry of commercial logging concessionaires, followed by a government-sponsored transmigration scheme, government-licensed timber and oil palm plantations and, finally, the devastating fires of 1998. The results show a mean deforestation rate of 42 km2 or 6 per cent per year for 1983–2000, rising to 10 per cent per year for 1990–98; by 2000, 70 per cent of forest initially damaged by fire and drought during the 1982–83 El Niño event was classified as non-forest. Although our study area is perhaps a worst-case scenario in terms of land use planning outcomes, the lessons from this research are directly applicable to scenario prediction for informed forest and land use planning and monitoring. 相似文献