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1.
The prevailing pattern in much of the social sciences, including geography and criminology, relies on count data. “Hotspots” — geospatial areas with disproportionally more crime than the rest of the city — are usually identified by the number of events in these areas. Yet no attention is given to their severity, or any other weighting system of harm, despite the common-sense view that not all crimes are created equal. To illustrate the value of focusing on harm in addition to count data, we turn to a spatial analysis of crime by observing crime concentrations (hotspots) against harm concentrations (harmspots), across fifteen councils in the United Kingdom. The definition of “harm” is based on the Sentencing Guidelines for England and Wales, as each crime category (n = 415) attracts a different severity weight. Both “hotspots” and “harmspots” are defined as being at least 2 standard deviations from the mean distribution within each city: This procedure creates comparable datasets. The data suggest that half of all crime events are concentrated within 3% of all street segments in the selected councils, yet harm is even more heavily concentrated, with half of all harm located in just 1% of each council [OR = 3.49; 95% CI 3.268–3.728]. The intra-unit variance was also reduced by approximately half — from 0.75% to 0.45%. We discuss the implications of using harm, in addition to counts, for research and policy by arguing that a shift in focus is required both for the development of theories and for cost-effective prevention strategies. 相似文献
2.
Since the 1970s, activity diaries have been the principal source of data used by geographers and urban planners to capture human mobility patterns; however, memory recall requirements and participant burden are limiting features of this approach. While handheld GPS devices were initially used to simply validate activity diaries, the ubiquity of smartphones makes GPS-based technology a viable alternative for collecting human mobility data. This research visualises human mobility patterns using spatiotemporally GPS-rich traces collected from 24 participants during a pilot study of a new smartphone application—Wander. The results illustrate the utility of such data for capturing individuals’ multi-nodal activity spaces to better understand people–place interactions in the context of increasingly fluid and mobile lifestyles. Finally, we draw on our experiences of implementing this pilot study to discuss the benefits and limitations of this technology for its broader application in domains such as transportation planning, tourism management, and in the management of crime and disorder. 相似文献
3.
Crime is both a factual and perceptual component of the urban landscape, seemingly both a societal pathology and the consequence of economic disparity between social groups. Crime has a spatial structure that can be revealed by mapping. Urban crime has a spatial multiplier effect that changes the values and perceptions of how people see urban space, and which jeopardizes the quality of life of a city's inhabitants. In this research we examine the question of whether the geography of actual criminal acts is echoed by peoples' perceptions of crime, what might be termed their “spaces of fear”. We ask how the fear of crime is associated with reported urban crime. Urban crime incidents have been increasing in Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil. We assembled crime information about Viçosa from two sources: first, crime as reported to the police and second, crime as perceived by city residents and measured by surveys and interviews. Reported criminal acts reveal a clustered geography, focusing particularly on the Downtown area, where there is a concentration of urban wealth and potential victims are more numerous. Offenses against property were focused on Downtown, while offenses against the person were located mostly in peripheral areas. The widespread feeling of insecurity in the city's neighborhoods, reflecting the fear of becoming a victim of violence and crime, was common throughout the city. Results confirmed the conclusion of past studies showing that the fear of violence and crime are not directly related to increasing numbers of criminal reports. Sites with higher incidence of crimes are not places with higher levels of fear. Rather than being geographically explainable “spaces of fear”, the spatial distribution of the fear of violence and crime appears to be unrelated in Viçosa, and neither is clustered or dispersed in any measurable way. 相似文献
4.
利用北京社会调查、法律文书、兴趣点、路网、定位数据,发现盗窃及暴力犯罪密度对犯罪恐惧感并无显著关联或影响偏弱,犯罪活动与犯罪恐惧感存在“匹配且具高安全性”“匹配且具高危险性”“不匹配且比主观感知更危险”“不匹配且比主观感知更安全”等类型。脆弱人群更易高估安全风险;防卫空间及街道眼理论分别适用于解释客观犯罪和主观感知,高密度、混合型、密路网的可渗透环境容易产生比主观感知更危险的情形;物理与社会失序、居住不稳定性会产生比主观感知更安全的情形;高人员流动性及高地位社区的居民则易低估安全风险;出入管控和环境维护能起到减犯罪、降恐惧的双重作用。 相似文献
5.
The fear of crime can significantly reduce the quality of life of individuals, yet little is known about what neighbourhood‐level factors drive feelings of vulnerability in New Zealand. Even less is known about the impact that recorded crime has on individuals' fear in the country. In this study, we examined the neighbourhood‐level factors related to fear of crime in Christchurch, focusing specifically on whether recorded crime in neighbourhoods influences fear. The fear of crime in Christchurch was found to be the greatest in more affluent, ethnically homogenous and residentially stable neighbourhoods, while recorded crime levels were found to be relatively lower in these neighbourhoods. 相似文献
6.
Theresa N. Westover 《The Professional geographer》1985,37(4):410-420
While recent research provides a general model of the causes and consequences of fear of crime, little is known about how the relationships among these model components may vary from one setting to another. Garofalo's fear of crime model is used to explore the extent and impact of fear of crime in recreational settings. Two hundred sixty-eight visitors to three Midwestern district level parks were interviewed on-site using a structured questionnaire. Results generally support the model and demonstrate a link between perception and behavior related to fear of crime. Respondents who felt unsafe in the park alone also tended to report avoidance behavior. Females were more likely than males to report both fear and avoidance. Direct experience with park crime and incivility, perceptions of other park visitors, and familiarity with the park were not strongly associated with either feelings of safety or reported avoidance. 相似文献
7.
街头抢劫者前犯罪经历对其后作案地选择的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
作案地选择是犯罪地理学的研究主题。已有的重复作案地选择的研究表明,犯罪者“前案件”作案地选择对他们“后案件”作案地选择具有影响,但以往研究关注的是先前的犯罪时间和地点对其后续作案地选择的影响,仍未检验犯罪者在“前案件”中犯罪经历的具体作用。因此,论文以中国东南沿海ZG市为例,利用街头抢劫者的抓捕数据和混合Logit模型,聚焦探析街头抢劫者先前的个体犯罪经历对他们随后的作案地选择的影响。研究发现：街头抢劫者在“前案件”中的犯罪间隔、犯罪出行和当场被捕等个体犯罪经历对其“后案件”作案地选择具有强烈的影响,即“前后案件”的犯罪间隔越临近、“前案件”犯罪出行距离越短,以及“前案件”未当场被捕,则大大增加了街头抢劫者返回到先前抢劫区域再次犯罪的可能性。并通过警察访谈和结合理论分析,发现“前案件”未当场被捕是由犯罪者当场被捕的恐惧感、警察特殊的干预方式,以及社会凝聚力和犯罪防控的相互作用而形成。研究结论可为警务部门的“事前防控”与“主动处置”提供一定的参考。 相似文献
8.
While research has repeatedly demonstrated how spatial distributions of crime can be shaped by the presence of facilities such as bars and public transport hubs, the joint influence of different facility types has rarely been explored. Spatial conjunctive analysis of case configurations (also known as qualitative comparative analysis) offers a means to identify the combinations of facility types that are most commonly found around crime events, and has been used in a small number of studies focusing on street robbery. This study extends this limited evidence base by implementing a significance test based on the Monte Carlo method using street robbery data for Austin, Texas. The results show that some of the top-ranking facility type combinations had observed frequencies that were not significantly greater than chance expectations. The accurate identification of the highest-risk environments has important implications for crime prevention. 相似文献
9.
Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forests is central in deriving accurate and reliable knowledge and understanding of the extent to which these species contribute to the global carbon cycle and towards minimizing climate change effects. The principal objective of this study was to quantify the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across Pinus and Eucalyptus plantation forests, tree-structural attributes (i.e. stems, barks, branches and leaves) and age groups, using models developed based on remotely sensed data. The results of this study demonstrate that aboveground carbon stocks significantly (α = 0.05) vary across different plantation forest species types, structural attributes and age. Pinus taeda and Eucalyptus grandis species contained aboveground carbon stocks above 110 t C ha−1, and Eucalyptus dunii had 20 t C ha−1. Across plantation forest tree structural attributes, stems contained the highest aboveground carbon stocks, when compared to barks, branches and leaves. Aboveground carbon stock estimates also varied significantly (α = 0.05) with stand age. Mature plantation forest species (i.e. between 7 and 20 years) contained the highest aboveground carbon stock estimates of approximately 120 t C ha−1, when compared to younger species (i.e. between 3 and 6 years), which had approximately 20 t C ha−1. The map of aboveground carbon stocks showed distinct spatial patterns across the entire study area. The findings of this study are important for understanding the contribution of different plantation forest species, structural attributes and age in the global carbon cycle and possible climate change moderation measures. Also, this study demonstrates that data on vital tree structural attributes, previously difficult to obtain, can now be easily derived from cheap and readily-available satellite data for inventorying carbon stocks variability. 相似文献
10.
Alina Ristea Mohammad Al Boni Bernd Resch Matthew S. Gerber Michael Leitner 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(9):1708-1739
ABSTRACT Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement. 相似文献
11.
地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究进展 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
犯罪地理学以社会问题为导向,关注犯罪现象的格局、过程与机理,沿着“揭示问题、服务安全、解决问题”的思路,去破解复杂的社会难题,并在公共安全和犯罪防控领域贡献力量。本文基于地理学视角,从犯罪出行、犯罪空间决策、重复犯罪三大研究主题出发,综述了国内外犯罪者行为的研究进展。结果表明,国外研究取得了较多成果,如：①犯罪出行方面发现了就近掠夺和外出犯罪的空间模式;不同犯罪类型的出行距离存在显著差异;以及犯罪出行距离受犯罪者个体特征、地理特征、犯罪收益和情感因素的影响。②犯罪空间决策受经济因素、社会因素以及犯罪者空间意识的影响。③重复犯罪存在时空聚集性和时空临近性。国内研究主要集中在国外理论与经验引介,犯罪时空分布、形成机理与空间防控,以及犯罪模拟与预测方面,而地理学视角下犯罪者行为研究尚处于初始阶段,有许多空白亟需填补。总体而言,在犯罪者研究领域,仍存在以下3点不足：①在犯罪出行方面,综合的视角不多;②在犯罪空间决策方面,尚未涉及犯罪空间决策的时间差异及形成机制;③在重复犯罪方面,尚未考虑过去的犯罪活动和经验。最后,论文从视角、内容、方法及应用上提出未来的研究重点：注重综合性视角的实证分析;开展针对犯罪团伙的研究;合理利用大数据分析犯罪者行为的规律、过程和机理,避免导致推理错误;注重理论研究成果的转化,满足国家社会治安的重大需求,并提升犯罪地理学的学科价值。 相似文献
12.
Digital technologies, including participatory Internet mapping, social media and smartphones, provide new avenues for research in outdoor recreation and tourism. The potential to reach a greater audience and collect visitation data on a broader scale, with less costs than traditional paper surveys, are key advantages that have increased the use of these novel technologies. Using of mobile apps for data collection is still at the experimental stage. We evaluate previous attempts to use apps for monitoring recreation and tourism in protected areas, as an alternative to other in situ or online methods. We present a pilot study implemented in Jotunheimen National Park (Norway), where we developed a mobile app for visitor monitoring and real-time mapping of values and experiences. We present the lessons learned, give suggestions on how and for what apps can be used, and discuss the advantages and limitations of using smartphones for visitor monitoring in protected areas. 相似文献
13.
S. Redondo-Gómez L. Andrades-MorenoR. Parra E. Mateos-NaranjoA.M. Sánchez-Lafuente 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(3):309-312
Cyperus capitatus Vandelli (Cyperaceae) is distributed in coastal sandy habitats and mobile dunes of south Europe. Its seed germination ecology is not known, despite its potential to be used in re-vegetation projects. Laboratory experiments were conduced to assess the effects of salinity, light regime, cold stratification and burial on seed germination of this species. Overall, increasing salinity delayed germination, increased seed dormancy and mean time to germination (MTG), and reduced final germination percentage, inhibiting it completely above 1% of salinity; although it did not affect seed viability. C. capitatus seeds exhibited their greatest germination at levels between 0 and 1% in non-stratified seeds, and between 0 and 0.5% for stratified seeds. Thus, the effect of salt was greater for stratified seeds at 5 °C. Germination in light/darkness conditions was similar to that in full darkness. Finally, burial in sand of C. capitatus seeds appeared to have a significant effect on cumulative percentage of germination. Seeds buried at depths greater than 2 and 3 cm showed a lower germination success than those on sand surface or buried at shallower depths. Burial also affected the beginning and speed of seed germination. 相似文献
14.
Land degradation and global warming are currently highly active research topics. Land degradation can both change land cover and surface climate and significantly influence atmospheric circulation. Researches have verified that carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are major greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere and are directly affected by human activity. However, to date, there is no research on the spatial distribution of GHG concentrations and also no research on how land degradations affect GHG concentrations in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used GHG data from the ENVIronment SATellite (ENVISAT) and the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and precipitation data from ground stations to analyze the way land degradation affects GHG concentrations in northern China and Mongolia, which exhibit the most serious land degradation process in East Asia. Our research revealed that the CO2 and CH4 concentrations (XCO2 and XCH4) increased from 2003 to 2009 and then decreased into 2011. We used geostatistics to predict and simulate the spatial distribution of XCO2 and XCH4 and found that the distribution of XCO2 displays a seasonal trend and is primarily affected by plant photosynthesis, soil respiration and precipitation. As the distribution of XCH4 is mainly affected by the sources' distribution, microbial processes, LST and submarine hydrate, the CH4 concentration presents no obvious seasonal changes and the high XCH4 values are primarily found in northeast and southeast China. Land degradation increases the concentration of GHG: the correlation coefficient between NDVI and XCO2 is R2 = 0.76 (P < 0.01) and the value between NDVI and XCH4 is R2 = 0.75 (P < 0.01). 相似文献
15.
Service accessibility and urban transportation choices are crucial in cities' endeavours for securing social equality and environmental sustainability. They are particularly relevant when the public service network is to be rationalized. In this paper we provide a practical example of comparing the impacts of current varying service allocation strategies on travel behaviour and the resulting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We take libraries as a local public service to examine the CO2 emissions resulting from residents' library trips in the capital region of Finland. Our analyses are based on data on library use (library loan database, N = 420,000), accessibility (comparable models of travel-time by car, public transportation and non-motorized transport) and customer transport choices (survey, n = 584). Our results show that (1) 52% of library customers use a library that is accessible from their home with minimum CO2 emissions (the “climate-optimal” facility provider), (2) the remaining 48% that choose a non-optimal facility provider produce nearly 90% of the total CO2-emissions related to library customer flows and (3) the service allocation strategies of the different municipalities lead to markedly different CO2-emission patterns resulting from service usage. To conclude, sustainability measures (in our case the CO2 burden) provide useful information on the impact of a service network structure which may be used alongside economic rationales. 相似文献
16.
不同犯罪类型受害者报警行为特点及其影响因素分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用问卷调查数据,以理性选择理论为框架,对广州地区扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害四大犯罪类型受害者的报警行为进行了分析。研究发现,扒窃和诈骗的发生率较高,但报警率较低;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的发生率较低,但报警率较高。逻辑回归结果表明,损失的财产价值是影响扒窃、诈骗、入室盗窃、暴力侵害受害者报警行为的共同因素,损失越大,报警的可能性越大。此外,户口状态对扒窃报警行为有影响;入室盗窃和暴力侵害的报警行为还受个人客观属性和主观感知的影响。表明西方的理性选择理论框架适用于中国的报警率研究,但在选择具体的衡量指标时应更慎重;在对用公安部门的数据进行犯罪空间分析时,应注意报警率的影响。 相似文献
17.
Police databases hold a large amount of crime data that could be used to inform us about current and future crime trends and patterns. Predictive analysis aims to optimize the use of these data to anticipate criminal events. It utilizes specific statistical methods to predict the likelihood of new crime events at small spatiotemporal units of analysis. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of applying predictive analysis in an urban context. To this end, the available crime data for three types of crime (home burglary, street robbery, and battery) are spatially aggregated to grids of 200 by 200 m and retrospectively analyzed. An ensemble model is applied, synthesizing the results of a logistic regression and neural network model, resulting in bi-weekly predictions for 2014, based on crime data from the previous three years. Temporally disaggregated (day versus night predictions) monthly predictions are also made. The quality of the predictions is evaluated based on the following criteria: direct hit rate (proportion of incidents correctly predicted), precision (proportion of correct predictions versus the total number of predictions), and prediction index (ratio of direct hit rate versus proportion of total area predicted as high risk). Results indicate that it is possible to attain functional predictions by applying predictive analysis to grid-level crime data. The monthly predictions with a distinction between day and night produce better results overall than the bi-weekly predictions, indicating that the temporal resolution can have an important impact on the prediction performance. 相似文献
18.
Entertainment districts have high crime rates. Offences peak on the weekend during the operating hours of on-premises drinking establishments. To determine if proactive policing from May 1st to August 31st reduced the spatial density (kernel) or annual frequency of liquor infractions and assaults in Vancouver British Columbia Granville St. Entertainment Area (GEA) we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of crime pre (2006) and post (2010, 2013) the policing intervention. Crime occurred most frequently between 1:00am and 3:00am. The frequency of weekend liquor infractions significantly (α < 0.05) decreased during the proactive policing period. The magnitude of the reduction was greater for liquor infractions than assaults. Liquor infractions decreased from 121 events in 2006, to 53 events in 2010, to 91 events in 2013. Assaults decreased from 36 events in 2006, to 34 events in 2010, to 28 events in 2013. Future patrolling should focus on north-east end of Granville St. during early morning hours (1:00am-3:00am), and consider additional patrols, to increase crime reductions. In light of the recent trend to liberalize alcohol access across British Columbia we demonstrated that targeted policing strategies can reduce alcohol-attributable crime. We also provide fine temporal and spatial scale information on the patterns of crime creating evidence-based information to support policing strategies. 相似文献
19.
Agave cupreata and Agave potatorum are semelparous species distributed on dry tropical forests in south Mexico. Extraction of reproductive individuals for spirits production has caused a decline of wild populations and has raised concerns about their long-term conservation. We assess the degree of genetic erosion of exploited populations and provide population genetics baseline data for developing sustainable use strategies of these species. ISSRs (Inter Simple Sequence Repeats, dominant nuclear markers associated to microsatellites) were used to analyze five populations of each species throughout their distribution range. We found high levels of variation (P > 80%; H > 0.30) and moderate to high differentiation (A. potatorum θ = 0.120; A. cupreata θ = 0.172). Isolation by distance was significant in A. cupreata. Our data indicate that these species are not genetically eroded in general, and that they retain their historical patterns of diversity inside populations. Three genetically distinct populations are identified where conservation efforts should be a priority. Our results are discussed in relation to the in situ reinforcement of populations based on seeds propagation, in contrast to micropropagation practices that may threaten the genetic diversity of the species studied considering previous reports on genetic bottlenecks and inbreeding depression in Agave. 相似文献
20.
Fine root dynamics and longevity may reflect the results of plant adaptation. The minirhizotron technique was applied to investigate the fine root dynamics and longevity of Artemisia halodendron Turcz. ex Bess. in the mobile and fixed sand dunes in Inner Mongolia, Northern China. For over two years of study, the cumulative fine root length production and turnover were all significantly higher in the mobile than the fixed sand dunes at soil depths of 0–20, 20–40, and 40–60 cm. The annual fine root production (8.46 mm cm−2 y−1) and annual fine root turnover (7.38 mm cm−2 y−1) of shrubs in the mobile sand dunes are about 38 and 70 percent higher than those in the fixed sand dunes. The fine root lifespan is higher for those in the fixed (47 days) than in the mobile (33 days) sand dunes, consistent with the higher ratio of first- (distal) to second-order roots of the former. The root production and lifespan are consistent with the adaptive responses of A. halodendron in the two habitats. The differences in root dynamics and lifespan between the mobile and fixed sand dunes may significantly explain the changes in the C fixation rate with the restoration of desert soils. 相似文献