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1.
DP半岛街头抢劫犯罪案件热点时空模式 总被引：10，自引：4，他引：6
选取H市中心城区DP半岛作为研究区域,以岛上2006-2011 年发生的街头抢劫案件（共373 起） 作为研究对象,将DP半岛内街头抢劫案件的时空分布特征分别从宏观和局部微观两个尺度层面进行系统的分析。首先,对岛上的街头抢劫案件按年、月和小时进行统计分析,总结其在不同时间尺度上的变化规律：2007 年开始的严打使案件数量逐年减少,直到2010 年才略有回升;春节期间（二月前后） 的案件数量明显高于其他月份;晚上22:00-23:00 期间是案件高发时段。其次,利用Kernel 密度方法对研究区街头抢劫犯罪的宏观空间分布进行整体的辨别,剥离出犯罪热点空间分布,分析热点与道路网和土地利用的关联性,结果表明热点多分布于主干道、通达性高的节点或土地利用混合度高的地方。最后,选出4 个最主要的热点从微观尺度进行分析,PAI 指数表明这4 个热点在时间上是稳定的,从2006 年到2011 年一直存在。依据“热点时空类型矩阵”的时间分布和空间分布模式,将这4 个稳定热点归类到不同微观时空模式,并对每类模式下的街头抢劫犯罪提出有针对性的防控对策,以便优化警力资源的配置、最大限度抑制和减少犯罪的发生。 相似文献
2.
Ryan J. Bunting Oliver Yang Chang Christopher Cowen Richard Hankins Staci Langston Alexander Warner 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(1):34-46
The combination of crime mapping and geospatial analysis methods has enabled law enforcement agencies to develop more proactive methods of targeting crime-prone neighborhoods based on spatial patterns, such as hot spots and spatial proximity to specific points of interest. In this article, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of the neighborhood crimes of aggravated assault and larceny in 297 census tracts in Miami–Dade County from 2007 to 2015. We use emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) to identify the spatial patterns of emerging, persistent, continuous, and sporadic hot spots. In addition, we use geographically weighted regression to analyze the spatial clustering effects of sociodemographic variables, poverty rate, median age, and ethnic diversity. The hot spots for larceny are much more diffused than those for aggravated assaults, which exhibit clustering in the north over Liberty City and Miami Gardens and in the south near Homestead, and the ethnic heterogeneity index has a moderate and positive effect on the incidence of both larceny and aggravated assaults. The findings suggest that law enforcement can better target prevention programs for violent versus property crime using geospatial analyses. Additionally, the ethnic concentration of neighborhoods influences crime differently in neighborhoods of different socioeconomic status, and future studies should account for spatial patterns when estimating conventional regression models. 相似文献
3.
警用视频监控的犯罪防控效果及空间差异 ——以苏州市姑苏区为例 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用双重差分法,对苏州市姑苏区2014~2016年的警情数据进行分析,评估警用治安视频监控的犯罪防控效果。结果表明,视频监控对犯罪具有明显的抑制性作用。在案件类型上,视频监控对盗窃类案件的防控效果较好,但对盗窃电动自行车、盗窃电动车电瓶的防控效果较小。在时间维度上,与节假日相比,对工作日犯罪的抑制效果更好;与晚上相比,对白天犯罪的抑制效果更好。针对通过局部空间自相关分析所获取的重点区域,与警务人员访谈和实地调研后发现,视频监控的犯罪防控效果与周边地理环境、人流密集程度、警务情况等密切相关。 相似文献
4.
加拿大爱得蒙顿市犯罪问题的地理研究* 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
运用GIS技术和回归分析方法,分析加拿大爱得蒙顿市各类犯罪的空间分布规律。结果发现：城市犯罪分布的空间差异异常明显,城市内部存在少数极端的犯罪高发区;犯罪的空间分布遵循距离衰减规律,表现为距城市中心越近的地区犯罪发生密度越高,距城市中心越远的地区犯罪密度越低;犯罪发生密度与居住人口密度成正相关,即居住人口密度越高,越容易诱发犯罪,但不同类型的犯罪与居住人口密度的关联程度不一样;不同用地性质的区域犯罪发生密度存在明显差异,在各类用地中,商业区为城市犯罪的高发区。 相似文献
5.
Summary This paper argues that the study of crime and the fear of crime in rural areas reveals much about the geography of crime, policing and rural society. Drawing upon a crime and safety survey conducted with residents of a rural parish in Worcestershire it establishes a link between fear of crime and 'cultural threats' to residents' dominant constructions of rurality. It concludes by considering the 1998 Crime and Disorder Act and its implications for rural policing and society. 相似文献
6.
基于风险地形建模的毒品犯罪风险评估和警务预测 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
犯罪具有明显的时空特征,研究犯罪问题离不开时间和空间维度分析,以及产生犯罪的社会、地理、生态、环境等因素。风险地形建模是美国学者研发的空间风险评估和警务预测技术,已在全球六大洲45个国家和美国35个州得到了独立测试和验证,被广泛应用于警务预测、国土安全、交通事故、公共医疗、儿童虐待、环境污染、城市发展等多个领域。在毒品、纵火、爆炸、强奸、抢劫、盗窃等犯罪研究领域更是取得了显著成果。本文运用犯罪热点分析和风险地形建模,以长三角地区N市毒品犯罪为研究对象,对该市2015年毒品犯罪的危险因子、空间盲区、风险地形进行分析,探索毒品犯罪的生成机理和演化规律,并对2016年毒品犯罪进行预测。研究结果表明,N市毒品犯罪呈现明显的犯罪热点和冷点;出租屋、酒店、车站、ATM机、停车场、娱乐场所、城市快速路、网吧是N市毒品犯罪的风险性因素。风险地形建模能较好地预测毒品犯罪。公安机关禁毒部门应据此进行严密管控,逐步限制、消除犯罪产生地、犯罪吸引地、犯罪促进地的生存土壤和条件。 相似文献
7.
Cecilia Wong 《Area》1997,29(3):228-240
Summary The recent British Crime Surveys have confirmed that there are significant spatial variations in the distribution of crime risk. However, it is notoriously difficult to represent the spatial patterns in Britain convincingly, owing to the statistical inadequacy of the official crime data. This paper discusses the use of home contents insurance data as a proxy measure of crime risk, and examines the changing spatial distribution of crime risk in the two Northern conurbations of Merseyside and Greater Manchester. The analysis provides an explicit urban focus in order to establish links between the spatial distribution of crime risk and other patterns of deprivation or inequality in the urban environment. Since insurance data is used as a proxy measure of crime risk in the Department of the Environment's Index of Local Conditions, this analysis serves as an interesting basis for both academic and policy discussion. 相似文献
8.
不同主体特征的犯罪人空间出行行为分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
犯罪人的空间出行行为对描述和理解犯罪人的犯罪过程具有重要作用。目前已有的研究大多集中于犯罪人空间出行距离的一般性统计分析,缺少从犯罪人不同主体特征下的空间出行行为的精细化与个性化研究。论文以北京市盗窃电动自行车案件为例,对不同主体特征要素下的犯罪人空间出行距离分布差异性进行了实证研究,结果表明：具有不同性别、年龄、籍贯和犯罪经验属性的犯罪人空间出行距离分布存在明显差异,其中男性犯罪人的犯罪出行距离略高于女性犯罪人,但其空间缓冲距离却较女性犯罪人略小;中年犯罪人较青少年和老年犯罪人具有更大的犯罪出行距离和空间缓冲半径;外来犯罪人群体较本地犯罪人群体的犯罪出行距离和空间缓冲区更远;多次作案的犯罪人在出行距离和空间缓冲距离上要高于作案次数较少的犯罪人。随后,基于最小努力原则和理性抉择理论,从犯罪人主体的出行成本、邻里监护风险感知、犯罪收益等角度构建了犯罪人空间出行的决策模型,并对不同主体特征要素作用下的犯罪人空间出行行为的差异性进行了解释。研究结论可为犯罪预测及警务实践提供有效支撑。 相似文献
9.
Resource economies and neoliberal experimentation: the reform of industry and community in rural British Columbia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper argues that the current literature on neoliberalism in advanced capitalist societies has concentrated primarily on urban issues, and has thus failed to see resource economies and regions as theoretically significant sites of neoliberal reform. Using research from British Columbia, Canada, we argue that resource regions are often targets of intense neoliberal experimentation. The neoliberal project in British Columbia involves an extreme shift in state policy from a strong Fordist-Keynesian programme to recent efforts to 'liberate' corporate actors from non-market social and spatial obligations (to environment, labour and community). We argue that such policy shifts have exceptional consequences in resource regions due to strong and direct state influence in corporate-resource and community-level economies. We draw several theoretical lessons from this research for the mainstream literature on neoliberal reform. 相似文献
10.
中国犯罪地理研究述评 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
当前社会犯罪问题严峻,以空间为视角的犯罪地理研究因其独特的综合性在犯罪防控中的作用日益凸显。以中国知网、维普和万方三大数据库中获得的期刊文献为基础,对中国犯罪地理的研究状况进行综合评述。在对国内五大研究主题进行回顾的基础上,围绕“研究主题”和“研究领域”两方面,分析了中国犯罪地理学的发展动态。总体来看,在过去的25 年中,中国犯罪地理研究逐渐起步,发展趋势良好,已经吸引了来自地理学、法学与警务管理、城市规划、应用数学等诸多领域的学者关注。尽管研究焦点各有侧重,但始终注重对国外研究和实践经验的引入,并提出了基于综合分析、情境预防、CPTED、PGIS的诸多防控对策。在犯罪时空分布特征、犯罪发生诱因等方面,研究范围宽广,但研究深度有待加强。未来中国犯罪地理学发展任重而道远。学界应充分重视城市犯罪与农村犯罪、犯罪与微观环境的互动关系、犯罪主体的行为空间等研究,并积极探索虚拟犯罪模拟新技术的应用。 相似文献
11.
12.
Understanding the relationship between vegetation and climate is essential for predicting the impact of climate change on broad-scale landscape processes. Utilizing vegetation indicators derived from remotely sensed imagery, we present an approach to forecast shifts in the future distribution of vegetation. Remotely sensed metrics representing cumulative greenness, seasonality, and minimum cover have successfully been linked to species distributions over broad spatial scales. In this paper we developed models between a historical time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery from 1987 to 2007 at 1 km spatial resolution with corresponding climate data using regression tree modeling approaches. We then applied these models to three climate change scenarios produced by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) to predict and map productivity indices in 2065. Our results indicated that warming may lead to increased cumulative greenness in northern British Columbia and seasonality in vegetation is expected to decrease for higher elevations, while levels of minimum cover increase. The Coast Mountains of the Pacific Maritime region and high elevation edge habitats across British Columbia were forecasted to experience the greatest amount of change. Our approach provides resource managers with information to mitigate and adapt to future habitat dynamics. Forecasting vegetation productivity levels presents a novel approach for understanding the future implications of climate change on broad scale spatial patterns of vegetation. 相似文献
13.
《Urban geography》2013,34(7):582-610
This paper examines the geography of violent crime across the neighborhoods of Tucson and South Tucson, Arizona. The research is informed by the tenets of modern social disorganization theory, which has a strong ecological or environmental basis. Three different crime indices are computed; each represents an annual average during the five-year period 1995-1999. The most comprehensive index captures aggravated assaults, homicides, robberies, and sexual assaults. After providing a factor-ecological study of the study area, using 27 variables taken from the 1990 census, various regression models are developed to explain violent crime patterns. These models use a smaller array of ten demographic, economic, and social attributes to predict patterns at the block group level. A number of variables are found to be significant across all models, thereby providing further support for social disorganization theory. Stability in the signs and values of the estimates suggest that a general model of violent crime can be established for the study region. The paper closes with a short discussion of some public policy implications. 相似文献
14.
Alina Ristea Mohammad Al Boni Bernd Resch Matthew S. Gerber Michael Leitner 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(9):1708-1739
ABSTRACT Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement. 相似文献
15.
北京社会治安公共安全空间结构及其影响机制——以城市110警情为例 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
维护社会安全与稳定是城市公共安全研究的重要课题,随着社会经济转型和城市空间结构变化的影响,北京市的社会治安公共安全呈现出明显的空间规律和特点。本文基于2006-2011年北京市110警情治安数据,结合GIS的空间密度分析方法,刻画北京社会治安公共安全的空间格局,并进一步探讨其空间分异机制。研究发现:①北京社会治安公共安全状况明显改善,犯罪空间形成小集聚多分散的演化特征,形成了多个警情高发的集聚区;②北京公共安全空间变化具有明显的偏向性和差异性,形成西北—东南的极化现象。③不同的犯罪类型其空间分布特征也不同,不同的犯罪类型都存在明显的、各具特色的空间分异特征。④从社会治安公共安全空间分异机制来看,经济功能区、人居环境、交通、流动人口和居民居住环境安全感等要素差异会引发不同的犯罪类型和形成不同的犯罪集聚区。本研究可为首都社会治安防控的空间管理策略和城市公共安全政策制定提供参考。 相似文献
16.
犯罪出行是犯罪地理学的重要研究议题,在犯罪防控、侦破等警务实践中具有突出的技术贡献。受制于研究数据的限制,中国犯罪出行实证研究较为缺乏。论文研究了2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行的空间模式与影响因素,并指出：① 2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行平均距离为5.74 km,存在明显的空间衰减效应,空间模式为就近掠夺,在距离犯罪者居住地2 km处出现犯罪缓冲区。② 南关区扒窃犯罪高发区与犯罪群体主要聚居地在空间上呈现重叠,该区域犯罪以就近掠夺的空间模式为主。③ 回归模型验证了犯罪者人口属性中性别、户籍地、是否就业和具有前科劣迹、涉案金额、犯罪地点所属类型对于出行距离的显著影响,其中户籍地变量为理解转型期中国大城市犯罪行为具有一定意义。 相似文献
17.
Kate Swanson 《Urban geography》2013,34(7):972-988
In Latin America, high levels of crime have prompted many politicians to embrace zero tolerance policing in order to quell public fears. While the overall impacts on urban crime are debatable, zero tolerance in the region has morphed into a powerful policy narrative that symbolizes strong leaders who crack down crime and disorder. Its impacts have been far-reaching; to date, it has been implemented in various guises in Mexico, Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela, Chile, Argentina, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic. Yet, the policy transfer of zero tolerance to Latin America has mutated into a much more punitive approach. In this paper, I develop a critical analysis of the punitive inequalities of zero tolerance policing in Latin American cities, and the consequences for marginalized and racialized youth. I also explore the emergence of a new, unexpected consequence of zero tolerance: the South-North migration of undocumented people. 相似文献
18.
Martin A. Andresen Nick Malleson Wouter Steenbeek Michael Townsley Christophe Vandeviver 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(7):1306-1322
ABSTRACT The analysis of geographically referenced data, specifically point data, is predicated on the accurate geocoding of those data. Geocoding refers to the process in which geographically referenced data (addresses, for example) are placed on a map. This process may lead to issues with positional accuracy or the inability to geocode an address. In this paper, we conduct an international investigation into the impact of the (in)ability to geocode an address on the resulting spatial pattern. We use a variety of point data sets of crime events (varying numbers of events and types of crime), a variety of areal units of analysis (varying the number and size of areal units), from a variety of countries (varying underlying administrative systems), and a locally-based spatial point pattern test to find the levels of geocoding match rates to maintain the spatial patterns of the original data when addresses are missing at random. We find that the level of geocoding success depends on the number of points and the number of areal units under analysis, but generally show that the necessary levels of geocoding success are lower than found in previous research. This finding is consistent across different national contexts. 相似文献
19.
The objective of this study is to provide an approach for assessing the short-term risk of mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) attack over large forested areas based on the spatial-temporal behavior of beetle spread. This is accomplished by integrating GIS, aerial overview surveys, and local indicators of spatial association (LISA) in order to measure the spatial relationships of mountain pine beetle impacts from one year to the next. Specifically, we implement a LISA method called the bivariate local Moran's Ii to estimate the risk of mountain pine beetle attack across the pine distribution of British Columbia, Canada. The bivariate local Moran's Ii provides a means for classifying locations into separate qualitative risk categories that describe insect population dynamics from one year to the next, revealing where mountain pine beetle populations are most likely to increase, stay constant, or decline. The accuracy of the model's prediction of qualitative risk was higher in initial years and lower in later years of the study, ranging from 91% in 2002 to 72% in 2006. The risk rating can be continually updated by utilizing annual overview surveys, thus ensuring that risk prediction remains relatively high in the short-term. Such information can equip forest managers with the ability to allocate mitigation resources for responding to insect epidemics over very large areas. 相似文献
20.
Fossil black fly larvae of late Pleistocene and Holocene ages are reported from lacustrine deposits of coastal British Columbia, including the first record of the genus Parasimulium Malloch from Canada. Features that distinguish fossil larvae from the remains of other organisms are reviewed, and a key to the Nearctic genera based on features of the hypostoma presented. Fossil black fly larvae have potential for providing information about changes in fluvial conditions, and provide direct evidence about the composition of past faunas. The palaeohydrologic significance of late Quaternary assemblages from coastal British Columbia is discussed. 相似文献