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1.
Accelerating rates of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes are commonly observed during volcanic unrest. Understanding the repeatability of their behaviour is essential to evaluating their potential to forecast eruptions. Quantitative eruption forecasts have focused on changes in precursors over intervals of weeks or less. Previous studies at basaltic volcanoes in frequent eruption, such as Kilauea in Hawaii and Piton de La Fournaise on Réunion, suggest that VT earthquake rates tend to follow a power-law acceleration with time about 2 weeks before eruption, but that this trend is often obscured by random fluctuations (or noise) in VT earthquake rate. These previous studies used a stacking procedure, in which precursory sequences for several eruptions are combined to enhance the signal from an underlying acceleration in VT earthquake rate. Such analyses assume a common precursory trend for all eruptions. This assumption is tested here for the 57 eruptions and intrusions recorded at Kilauea between 1959 and 1984. Applying rigorous criteria for selecting data (e.g. maximum depth; restricting magnitudes to be greater than the completeness magnitude, 2.1), we find a much less pronounced increase in the aggregate rate of earthquakes than previously reported. The stacked trend is also strongly controlled by the behaviour of one particular pre-eruptive sequence. In contrast, a robust signal emerges among stacked VT earthquake rates for a subset of the eruptions and intrusions. The results are consistent with two different precursory styles at Kilauea: (1) a small proportion of eruptions and intrusions that are preceded by accelerating rates of VT earthquakes over intervals of weeks to months and (2) a much larger number of eruptions that show no consistent increase until a few hours beforehand. The results also confirm the importance of testing precursory trends against data that have been filtered according to simple constraints on the spatial distribution and completeness magnitude of the VT earthquakes.  相似文献   

2.
In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert  相似文献   

3.
Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The study of patterns of eruption occurrence could lead to a better understanding of the physics behind the volcanic process. However, various attempts to find a single statistical distribution that describes the occurrences of volcanic eruptions have not been successful. Global data show that, if the energies of point events in time (eruptions) are properly accounted above a certain noise level, the stochastic process — whose realization consists of explosive volcanic events — can be well represened by a Poisson point process, though not necessarily stationary. Many previous attempts to describe patterns of eruption occurrences were hampered by counting events with all levels of explosivity in the same category. When eruptions are separated by their sizes, the occurrence patterns of the higher magnitude eruptions become clearly Poissonian. In this study eruptions are classified by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (Newhall and Self 1982). Further analysis of the magnitude-characterized eruption data shows direct relations among the energy of eruptions, mean rate of occurrences and distribution of repose intervals between eruptions. An important result from the analysis of energy and mean rate of occurrence data is that, for global data, the product of those parameters is a constant. Simple load-and-discharge models provide an explanation of the random features of the volcanic processes. These considerations lead to the definition of a constinuous magnitude scale for volcanic eruptions which can consistently measure the energy and the rate-of-occurrence of eruptions over a wide range of values.  相似文献   

4.
归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。  相似文献   

5.
We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km3 and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.  相似文献   

6.
Analysis of the patterns of eruption occurrences may improve our understanding of volcanic processes. In this paper, the available historical data of an individual volcano, Colima in México, are used to classify its eruptions by size using the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). The data shows that, if eruptions are only taken into account above a certain VEI level, the stochastic process associated with the explosive volcanic events can be represented by a non-stationary Poisson point process, which can be reduced to a homogeneous Poisson process through a transformation of the time axis. When eruptions are separated by VEI values, the occurrence patterns of each magnitude category can also be represented by a Poisson distribution. Analysis of the rate of occurrence of all eruptions with VEI greater than 1 permits the recognition of three distinct regimes or rates of volcanic activity during the last 430 years. A double stochastic Poisson model is suggested to describe this non-stationary eruptive pattern of Colima volcano and a Bayesian approach permits an estimation the present hazard.  相似文献   

7.
Although stratosphere penetrating volcanic eruptions have been infrequent during the last half century, periods have existed in the last several hundred years when such eruptions were significantly more frequent. Several mechanisms exist for these injections to affect stratospheric minor constitutent chemistry, both on the long-term average and for short-term perturbations. These mechanisms are reviewed and, because of the sensitivity of current models of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations, quantitative estimates are made of chlorine injection rates. It is found that, if chlorine makes up as much as 0.5 to 1% of the gases released and if the total gases released are about the same magnitude as the fine ash, then a major stratosphere penetrating eruption could deplete the ozone column by several percent. The estimate for the Agung eruption of 1963 is just under 1% an amount not excluded by the ozone record but complicated by the peak in atmospheric nuclear explosions at about the same time. The long-term contribution to stratospheric CIX by volcanic eruptions is estimated as 0.1 ppbv for the period 1900–60 and 1 ppbv for the much more volcanically active period 1780–1840. All of the estimates are subject to large uncertainties, perhaps a factor of 2 or 3 on the high side and a factor of 10 or more on the low side.Paper presented at the IAGA/IAMAP Joint Assembly, Seattle, WA, U.S.A., August 1977.  相似文献   

8.
The impossibility of observing magma migration inside the crust obliges us to rely on geophysical data and mathematical modelling to interpret precursors and to forecast volcanic eruptions. Of the geophysical signals that may be recorded before and during an eruption, deformation and seismicity are two of the most relevant as they are directly related to its dynamic. The final phase of the unrest episode that preceded the 2011–2012 eruption on El Hierro (Canary Islands) was characterized by local and accelerated deformation and seismic energy release indicating an increasing fracturing and a migration of the magma. Application of time varying fractal analysis to the seismic data and the characterization of the seismicity pattern and the strain and the stress rates allow us to identify different stages in the source mechanism and to infer the geometry of the path used by the magma and associated fluids to reach the Earth’s surface. The results obtained illustrate the relevance of such studies to understanding volcanic unrest and the causes that govern the initiation of volcanic eruptions.  相似文献   

9.
 In situ measurement of volcanic eruption velocities is one of the great challenges left in geophysical volcanology. In this paper we report on a new radar Doppler technique for monitoring volcanic eruption velocities. In comparison with techniques employed previously (e.g., photographic methods or acoustic Doppler measurements), this method allows continuous recordings of volcanic eruptions even during poor visibility. Also, radar Doppler instruments are usually light weight and energy efficient, which makes them superior to other Doppler techniques based on laser light or sound. The proposed new technique was successfully tested at Stromboli Volcano in late 1996 during a period of low activity. The recorded data allow a clear distinction between particles rising from the vent and particles falling back towards the vent. The mean eruption velocity was approximately 10 m/s. Most of the eruptions recorded by radar were correlated to seismic recordings. The correlation between the magnitude of the volcanic shocks and the eruption force index defined in the paper may provide new insights into magma transport in the conduit. Received: 15 May 1998 / Accepted: 15 December 1998  相似文献   

10.
A violent outburst of the Lopevi volcano in the central New Hebrides occurred on the 10th July, 1960. The eruption was preceded 4 months before by a deep earthquake (h=250 kms, Mag. 7 1/4), the focus of which was just under the volcano. An inventory of all shocks recorded in the Group since 1910 has been made and all informations about volcanic eruptions in this region have been collected. A close correlation appeared between these two phenomena. Each of the large volcanic eruptions recorded between 1910 and 1962 followed a deep focus earthquake of magnitude greater than 7. Moderate eruptions were preceded by earthquakes of magnitude between 5 3/4 and 6 3/4. The time between the tectonic shock and the climactic phase of the volcanic activity appears to be related to the distance between the focus and the volcano (i.e. the focal depth), the type of the volcano and the pattern of its eruption. It is of few months duration for the volcanoes in the Central group: Ambrym, Lopévi, the submarine volcano east of Epi and Karua. The authors tried to find the same correlations for others volcanoes in the world for which they have been able to collect dates of eruptions: Asama-Yama (Japan), Bezymiannyi (Kamtchatka), Paricutin and Izalco (Central America), Vesuve, Stromboli (Italy). Thus volcanic eruptions would appear to have their first origin in the mantle. A systematic survey of all volcanoes and deep regional earthquakes would bring evidence of this correlation and may permit a long term prediction of their eruptions.  相似文献   

11.
地震、形变、火山气体地球化学等观测结果表明2002~2005年长白山天池火山经历了1次扰动事件。长白山站地震台（CBS台）记录到了扰动事件前后连续稳定的宽频带地震观测资料。前人的观测研究结果认为长白山天池火山扰动期间的火山地震类型主要为构造型火山地震，伴随少量的谐频型地震。本文通过匹配滤波技术，对1999~2007年扰动事件前后CBS台单台三分量地震观测数据进行模板扫描，获得3763个清晰的火山地震事件，其中谐频（HS）事件125个，构造（VT）事件3618个，并发现长周期（LP）事件20个。进而将火山扰动期间火山地震事件分为3种类型：构造型事件、长周期事件和谐频型事件，并提出2002~2005年长白山天池火山扰动机制模型：深源地震-火山能量传递模型，即汪清深源地震能量释放和传递，引发长白山火山区岩石圈应力状态波动。地幔岩浆房受应力干扰后，岩浆通道打开，少量岩浆侵入地壳岩浆房。岩浆混合脱气导致地壳岩浆房升压，引起顶部岩石微破裂，产生构造型火山地震，气体和流体填充这些裂隙，从而产生LP和HS型火山地震事件。  相似文献   

12.
Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj?kull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38?%) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7?days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2?mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallaj?kull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation.  相似文献   

13.
Understanding explosive volcanic eruptions, especially phreatomagmatic eruptions, their intensities and energy budgets is of major importance when it comes to risk and hazard studies. With only a few historic occurrences of phreatomagmatic activity, a large amount of our understanding comes from the study of pre-historic volcanic centres, which causes issues when it comes to preservation and vegetation. In this research, we show that using 3D geometrical modelling it is possible to obtain volume estimates for different deposits of a pre-historic, complex, monogenetic centre, the Mt. Gambier Volcanic Complex, south-eastern Australia. Using these volumes, we further explore the energy budgets and the magnitude of this eruption (VEI 4), including dispersal patterns (eruption columns varying between 5 and 10 km, dispersed towards north-east to south), to further our understanding of intraplate, monogenetic eruptions involving phreatomagmatic activity. We also compare which thermodynamic model fits best in the creation of the maar crater of Mt. Gambier: the major-explosion-dominated model or the incremental growth model. In this case, the formation of most of the craters can best be explained by the latter model.  相似文献   

14.
By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.  相似文献   

15.
Nearly all eruptions in stratovolcanoes (composite volcanoes, central volcanoes) are supplied with magma through fractures. Consequently, a primary physical condition for an eruption to occur in a stratovolcano is that a magma-driven fracture is able to propagate to the surface. Magma-filled fractures, frozen or fluid, are referred to as sheet intrusions. More specifically, they are named dykes when subvertical, and inclined (or cone) sheets when inclined. Field observations indicate that most sheet intrusions do not reach the surface to feed eruptions but rather become arrested at various crustal depths. For this reason periods of volcanic unrest with sheet injections are much more common than volcanic eruptions. Whether a sheet intrusion becomes arrested or, alternatively, propagates to the surface depends primarily on the stress field in the stratovolcano. A stratovolcano normally consists of layers of contrasting mechanical properties, such as soft (low Youngs modulus) pyroclastic units and stiff (high Youngs modulus) lava flows. We present numerical models indicating that volcanoes composed of such layers commonly develop stress fields encouraging sheet and dyke arrest. The models indicate that a necessary condition for a sheet intrusion to reach the surface and feed a volcanic eruption is that the stress field along the sheet pathway becomes homogenised. We propose that much of the activity in a stratovolcano during a volcanic cycle encourages stress-field homogenisation. Field studies show that the sheet intrusions in individual stratovolcanoes have various dips: some are vertical dykes, others inclined sheets, and still others horizontal sills. Analytical models indicate that the dip of a sheet reaching the surface can have great effects on the magma transport during an eruption. This effect is normally greater for a flat volcano such as a collapse caldera than for a stratovolcano that forms a topographic high. We conclude that the shallower the dip of a sheet intrusion, the less will be its volumetric magma transport to the surface of a stratovolcano.Editorial responsibility: D Dingwell  相似文献   

16.
The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.  相似文献   

17.
琼北地区的火山活动以裂隙喷溢为主,晚更新世道堂期的射气岩浆喷发形成了众多的低平火山口,全新世雷虎岭期火山口主要分布于石山、永兴一带,沿NW向长流-仙沟断裂带分布。近2年在石山一带的射气岩浆喷发物中揭露出多条大规模的断裂,这些断裂带的单个断面虽然类似于地震活断层,但它们缺少断错地貌和断层方向的稳定性,一些断层组合成弧形。尽管这些断裂断面清晰,断距达4m,仍被认为是伴随火山喷发活动后期塌陷而形成的次级断层。此外,位于非火山岩分布区跨长流-仙沟断裂带的钻孔联合剖面探测表明,该断裂带在晚更新世晚期以来不活动。长流-仙沟断裂带晚更新世晚期以来的活动主要表现在作为深部岩浆的上涌通道。  相似文献   

18.
We estimated time scales of magma-mixing processes just prior to the 2011 sub-Plinian eruptions of Shinmoedake volcano to investigate the mechanisms of the triggering processes of these eruptions. The sequence of these eruptions serves as an ideal example to investigate eruption mechanisms because the available geophysical and petrological observations can be combined for interpretation of magmatic processes. The eruptive products were mainly phenocryst-rich (28 vol%) andesitic pumice (SiO2 57 wt%) with a small amount of more silicic pumice (SiO2 62–63 wt%) and banded pumice. These pumices were formed by mixing of low-temperature mushy silicic magma (dacite) and high-temperature mafic magma (basalt or basaltic andesite). We calculated the time scales on the basis of zoning analysis of magnetite phenocrysts and diffusion calculations, and we compared the derived time scales with those of volcanic inflation/deflation observations. The magnetite data revealed that a significant mixing process (mixing I) occurred 0.4 to 3 days before the eruptions (pre-eruptive mixing) and likely triggered the eruptions. This mixing process was not accompanied by significant crustal deformation, indicating that the process was not accompanied by a significant change in volume of the magma chamber. We propose magmatic overturn or melt accumulation within the magma chamber as a possible process. A subordinate mixing process (mixing II) also occurred only several hours before the eruptions, likely during magma ascent (syn-eruptive mixing). However, we interpret mafic injection to have begun more than several tens of days prior to mixing I, likely occurring with the beginning of the inflation (December 2009). The injection did not instantaneously cause an eruption but could have resulted in stable stratified magma layers to form a hybrid andesitic magma (mobile layer). This hybrid andesite then formed the main eruptive component of the 2011 eruptions of Shinmoedake.  相似文献   

19.
Studies of the respiratory health effects of different types of volcanic ash have been undertaken only in the last 40 years, and mostly since the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980. This review of all published clinical, epidemiological and toxicological studies, and other work known to the authors up to and including 2005, highlights the sparseness of studies on acute health effects after eruptions and the complexity of evaluating the long-term health risk (silicosis, non-specific pneumoconiosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) in populations from prolonged exposure to ash due to persistent eruptive activity. The acute and chronic health effects of volcanic ash depend upon particle size (particularly the proportion of respirable-sized material), mineralogical composition (including the crystalline silica content) and the physico-chemical properties of the surfaces of the ash particles, all of which vary between volcanoes and even eruptions of the same volcano, but adequate information on these key characteristics is not reported for most eruptions. The incidence of acute respiratory symptoms (e.g. asthma, bronchitis) varies greatly after ashfalls, from very few, if any, reported cases to population outbreaks of asthma. The studies are inadequate for excluding increases in acute respiratory mortality after eruptions. Individuals with pre-existing lung disease, including asthma, can be at increased risk of their symptoms being exacerbated after falls of fine ash. A comprehensive risk assessment, including toxicological studies, to determine the long-term risk of silicosis from chronic exposure to volcanic ash, has been undertaken only in the eruptions of Mt. St. Helens (1980), USA, and Soufrière Hills, Montserrat (1995 onwards). In the Soufrière Hills eruption, a long-term silicosis hazard has been identified and sufficient exposure and toxicological information obtained to make a probabilistic risk assessment for the development of silicosis in outdoor workers and the general population. A more systematic approach to multi-disciplinary studies in future eruptions is recommended, including establishing an archive of ash samples and a website containing health advice for the public, together with scientific and medical study guidelines for volcanologists and health-care workers.  相似文献   

20.
Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.  相似文献   

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