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1.
Abstract

This paper examines the potential effects of urbanization on streamflow in Maine, USA, from 1950 to 2000. The study contrasts nine watersheds in southern Maine, which has seen steady urban growth over the study period, with nine rural watersheds from northern Maine. Historical population data and current land cover data are used to develop an urbanization score for each watershed. Trends in watershed urbanization over the study period are compared to trends in ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics. The results indicate that trends in northern, rural watersheds are much more consistent than the trends in the southern watersheds. Additionally, trends in the southern watersheds are inconsistent with the hydrological characteristics observed in urban watersheds elsewhere, likely due to the comparatively low level of current urban development in Maine's urban watersheds. Our study suggests that urban areas in Maine have not yet reached an urbanization threshold where streamflow impacts become consistently detectable.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Martin, E.H., Kelleher, C., and Wagener, T., 2012. Has urbanization changed ecological streamflow characteristics in Maine (USA)? Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1337–1354.  相似文献   

2.
Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.  相似文献   

3.
For the period from 1958 to 1996, streamflow characteristics of a highly urbanized watershed were compared with less‐urbanized and non‐urbanized watersheds within a 20 000 km2 region in the vicinity of Atlanta, Georgia: in the Piedmont and Blue Ridge physiographic provinces of the southeastern USA. Water levels in several wells completed in surficial and crystalline‐rock aquifers were also evaluated. Data were analysed for seven US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges, 17 National Weather Service rain gauges, and five USGS monitoring wells. Annual runoff coefficients (RCs; runoff as a fractional percentage of precipitation) for the urban stream (Peachtree Creek) were not significantly greater than for the less‐urbanized watersheds. The RCs for some streams were similar to others and the similar streams were grouped according to location. The RCs decreased from the higher elevation and higher relief watersheds to the lower elevation and lower relief watersheds: values were 0·54 for the two Blue Ridge streams, 0·37 for the four middle Piedmont streams (near Atlanta), and 0·28 for a southern Piedmont stream. For the 25 largest stormflows, the peak flows for Peachtree Creek were 30% to 100% greater than peak flows for the other streams. The storm recession period for the urban stream was 1–2 days less than that for the other streams and the recession was characterized by a 2‐day storm recession constant that was, on average, 40 to 100% greater, i.e. streamflow decreased more rapidly than for the other streams. Baseflow recession constants ranged from 35 to 40% lower for Peachtree Creek than for the other streams; this is attributed to lower evapotranspiration losses, which result in a smaller change in groundwater storage than in the less‐urbanized watersheds. Low flow of Peachtree Creek ranged from 25 to 35% less than the other streams, possibly the result of decreased infiltration caused by the more efficient routing of stormwater and the paving of groundwater recharge areas. The timing of daily or monthly groundwater‐level fluctuations was similar annually in each well, reflecting the seasonal recharge. Although water‐level monitoring only began in the 1980s for the two urban wells, water levels displayed a notable decline compared with non‐urban wells since then; this is attributed to decreased groundwater recharge in the urban watersheds due to increased imperviousness and related rapid storm runoff. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Green stormwater infrastructure implementation in urban watersheds has outpaced our understanding of practice effectiveness on streamflow response to precipitation events. Long-term monitoring of experimental suburban watersheds in Clarksburg, Maryland, USA, provided an opportunity to examine changes in event-based streamflow metrics in two treatment watersheds that transitioned from agriculture to suburban development with a high density of infiltration-focused stormwater control measures (SCMs). Urban Treatment 1 has predominantly single family detached housing with 33% impervious cover and 126 SCMs. Urban Treatment 2 has a mix of single family detached and attached housing with 44% impervious cover and 219 SCMs. Differences in streamflow-event magnitude and timing were assessed using a before-after-control-reference-impact design to compare urban treatment watersheds with a forested control and an urban control with detention-focused SCMs. Streamflow and precipitation events were identified from 14 years of sub-daily monitoring data with an automated approach to characterize peak streamflow, runoff yield, runoff ratio, streamflow duration, time to peak, rise rate, and precipitation depth for each event. Results indicated that streamflow magnitude and timing were altered by urbanization in the urban treatment watersheds, even with SCMs treating 100% of the impervious area. The largest hydrologic changes were observed in streamflow magnitude metrics, with greater hydrologic change in Urban Treatment 2 compared with Urban Treatment 1. Although streamflow changes were observed in both urban treatment watersheds, SCMs were able to mitigate peak flows and runoff volumes compared with the urban control. The urban control had similar impervious cover to Urban Treatment 2, but Urban Treatment 2 had more than twice the precipitation depth needed to initiate a flow response and lower median peak flow and runoff yield for events less than 20 mm. Differences in impervious cover between the Urban Treatment watersheds appeared to be a large driver of differences in streamflow response, rather than SCM density. Overall, use of infiltration-focused SCMs implemented at a watershed-scale did provide enhanced attenuation of peak flow and runoff volumes compared to centralized-detention SCMs.  相似文献   

5.
Diurnal variations in streamflow are becoming acknowledged as a way of analysing how changing climatic conditions and land use affects watersheds but also as a way to understand watersheds as a whole. Yet not many studies from uplands below 900 mm mean annual precipitation zone are available from European countries. During the 2012 growing season, a sampling campaign took place in an upland forested micro‐watershed, Czech Republic (65 ha). Tree sap flow, rainfall and temperature were measured continuously, while streamflow at the discharge point and soil moisture were estimated from short‐term measurements. Short precipitation‐free periods lasting several days were identified for evaluation of trends in diurnal dynamics of both sap flow and streamflow. The results demonstrated that during these periods, the main factor altering streamflow was almost exclusively tree sap flow. A decrease in streamflow was observed during the day and an increase at night. The decline in sap flow after sunset was accompanied by a continuous increase in streamflow throughout the night up to its initial maximum in the morning. The amplitude in diurnal variations reached 18%. The observed time lag between the diurnal variations of sap flow and streamflow was approximately 2 h. Relatively low changes in diurnal dynamics of streamflow pointed out a strong regulatory role of the forest in buffering water discharge from the catchment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The identification of Atlantic Ocean (AO) climatic drivers may prove valuable in long lead-time forecasting of streamflow in the Adour-Garonne basin in southwestern France. Previous studies have identified the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as drivers of European hydrology. The current research applied the singular value decomposition (SVD) statistical method to AO sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) to identify the primary AO climatic drivers of the Adour-Garonne basin streamflow. Annual and seasonal streamflow volumes were selected as the hydrological response, while average AO SSTs were calculated for three different 6-month averages (January–June, April–September and July–December) for the year preceding streamflow. The results identified a region along the Equator as the probable driver of the basin streamflow. Additional analysis evaluated the influence of the AMO and NAO on Adour-Garonne basin streamflow.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Oubeidillah, A.A., Tootle, G. and Anderson, S.-R., 2012. Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures and regional streamflow variability in the Adour-Garonne basin, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 496–506.  相似文献   

7.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):166-170
Abstract

Freshwater and sediment are crucial to the development and health of aquatic and wetland ecosystems in deltaic coastal regions. This study examines the long-term freshwater inflow (1940–2002) and total suspended solid loading (1978–2001), and their relationships with climate variables in three major river watersheds to Lake Pontchartrain, the largest inland estuary in the USA. The results show an average total annual freshwater inflow of 5.04 km3 and an average total annual sediment loading of 210 360 t, with the highest contributions from the Amite River watershed. Over 69% of annual inflow occurred within the six months from December to May. About 66–71% of the annual total suspended solid loading occurred within the four months from January to April. An increasing trend of annual water inflow and sediment discharge was found in the Amite River watershed over the past 60 years, coinciding with the fastest population growth in this upper Lake Pontchartrain basin.  相似文献   

8.
Annual streamflows have decreased across mountain watersheds in the Pacific Northwest of the United States over the last ~70 years; however, in some watersheds, observed annual flows have increased. Physically based models are useful tools to reveal the combined effects of climate and vegetation on long‐term water balances by explicitly simulating the internal watershed hydrological fluxes that affect discharge. We used the physically based Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model to simulate the inter‐annual hydrological dynamics of a 4 km2 watershed in northern Idaho. The model simulates seasonal and annual water balance components including evaporation, transpiration, storage changes, deep drainage, and trends in streamflow. Independent measurements were used to parameterize the model, including forest transpiration, stomatal feedback to vapour pressure, forest properties (height, leaf area index, and biomass), soil properties, soil moisture, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. No calibrations were applied to fit the simulated streamflow to observations. The model reasonably simulated the annual runoff variations during the evaluation period from water year 2004 to 2009, which verified the ability of SHAW to simulate the water budget in this small watershed. The simulations indicated that inter‐annual variations in streamflow were driven by variations in precipitation and soil water storage. One key parameterization issue was leaf area index, which strongly influenced interception across the catchment. This approach appears promising to help elucidate the mechanisms responsible for hydrological trends and variations resulting from climate and vegetation changes on small watersheds in the region. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Water temperatures in mountain streams are likely to rise under future climate change, with negative impacts on ecosystems and water quality. However, it is difficult to predict which streams are most vulnerable due to sparse historical records of mountain stream temperatures as well as complex interactions between snowpack, groundwater, streamflow and water temperature. Minimum flow volumes are a potentially useful proxy for stream temperature, since daily streamflow records are much more common. We confirmed that there is a strong inverse relationship between annual low flows and peak water temperature using observed data from unimpaired streams throughout the montane regions of the United States' west coast. We then used linear models to explore the relationships between snowpack, potential evapotranspiration and other climate-related variables with annual low flow volumes and peak water temperatures. We also incorporated previous years' flow volumes into these models to account for groundwater carryover from year to year. We found that annual peak snowpack water storage is a strong predictor of summer low flows in the more arid watersheds studied. This relationship is mediated by atmospheric water demand and carryover subsurface water storage from previous years, such that multi-year droughts with high evapotranspiration lead to especially low flow volumes. We conclude that watershed management to help retain snow and increase baseflows may help counteract some of the streamflow temperature rises expected from a warming climate, especially in arid watersheds.  相似文献   

10.
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11.
Relative baseflow volume and streamflow flashiness indices were used to assess relationships between land use/cover and streamflow regime in nine New Jersey (NJ) Pinelands streams. Baseflow index (BFI) and Richards–Baker flashiness index (RBI) were estimated on an October–September water year, with period‐of‐record changes assessed by trend analysis and differences between watersheds assessed by examining index versus land‐use/cover relationships using a data period common to all study sites. Four streams, among the more urbanized watersheds of the nine study sites, were found to have significant (α = 0·05) trends in both indices. The two most urbanized study sites showed decreasing baseflow and increasing flashiness; however, the other two streams showed the opposite trends. An apparent slowdown in urbanization towards the second half of the streamflow period of record, along with potential changes in wetland agricultural practices in the latter two watersheds, may explain their trend results. A marginally significant (α = 0·10) decreasing relationship was found between mean annual BFI and wetland agriculture, whereas a significant (α = 0·05) increasing relationship was determined between mean annual RBI and artificial lakes/reservoirs. Principal component analysis showed an association between wetland agriculture and artificial lakes/reservoirs which suggested that both of the significant index versus land‐use/cover relationships reflect wetland agricultural activities. Because these significant relationships involved land uses/covers with small spatial extents (?5%), they demonstrated that land‐use practices can have a greater impact than spatial extent on stream hydrology. This study is the first step in assessing the effect on the NJ Pinelands stream ecology by streamflow alteration due to wetland agricultural activities. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
《Journal of Hydrology》2003,270(1-2):135-144
The interannual variability in streamflow presents challenges in managing the associated risks and opportunities of water resources systems. This paper investigates the use of seasonal streamflow forecasts to help manage three water resources systems in south-east Australia. The seasonal streamflow forecasts are derived from the serial correlation in streamflow and the relationship between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and streamflow. This paper investigates the use of ENSO and serial correlation in reservoir inflow to optimise water restriction rules for an urban township and the use of seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow to help make management decisions in two irrigation systems. The results show a marginal benefit in using seasonal streamflow forecasts in the three management examples. The results suggest that although the ENSO–streamflow teleconnection and the serial correlation in streamflow are statistically significant, the correlations are not sufficiently high to considerably benefit the management of conservative low-risk water resources systems. However, the seasonal forecasts can be used in the system simulations to provide an indication of the likely increases in the available water resources through an irrigation season, to allow irrigators to make more informed risk-based management decisions.  相似文献   

14.
Warming will affect snowline elevation, potentially altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow from mountain landscapes. Presently, the assessment of potential elevation‐dependent responses is difficult because many gauged watersheds integrate drainage areas that are both snow and rain dominated. To predict the impact of snowline rise on streamflow, we mapped the current snowline (1980 m) for the Salmon River watershed (Idaho, USA) and projected its elevation after 3 °C warming (2440 m). This increase results in a 40% reduction in snow‐covered area during winter months. We expand this analysis by collecting streamflow records from a new, elevation‐stratified gauging network of watersheds contained within high (2250–3800 m), mid (1500–2250 m) and low (300–1500 m) elevations that isolate snow, mixed and rain‐dominated precipitation regimes. Results indicate that lags between percentiles of precipitation and streamflow are much shorter in low elevations than in mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds. Low elevation annual percentiles (Q25 and Q75) of streamflow occur 30–50 days earlier than in higher elevation watersheds. Extreme events in low elevations are dominated by low‐ and no‐flow events whereas mid‐ and high‐elevation extreme events are primarily large magnitude floods. Only mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds are strongly cross correlated with catchment‐wide flow of the Salmon River, suggesting that changes in contributions from low‐elevation catchments may be poorly represented using mainstem gauges. As snowline rises, mid‐elevation watersheds will likely exhibit behaviours currently observed only at lower elevations. Streamflow monitoring networks designed for operational decision making or change detection may require modification to capture elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Remote sensing is an important source of snow‐cover extent for input into the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) and other snowmelt models. Since February 2000, daily global snow‐cover maps have been produced from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The usefulness of this snow‐cover product for streamflow prediction is assessed by comparing SRM simulated streamflow using the MODIS snow‐cover product with streamflow simulated using snow maps from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). Simulations were conducted for two tributary watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande basin during the 2001 snowmelt season using representative SRM parameter values. Snow depletion curves developed from MODIS and NOHRSC snow maps were generally comparable in both watersheds: satisfactory streamflow simulations were obtained using both snow‐cover products in larger watershed (volume difference: MODIS, 2·6%; NOHRSC, 14·0%) and less satisfactory streamflow simulations in smaller watershed (volume difference: MODIS, −33·1%; NOHRSC, −18·6%). The snow water equivalent (SWE) on 1 April in the third zone of each basin was computed using the modified depletion curve produced by the SRM and was compared with in situ SWE measured at Snowpack Telemetry sites located in the third zone of each basin. The SRM‐calculated SWEs using both snow products agree with the measured SWEs in both watersheds. Based on these results, the MODIS snow‐cover product appears to be of sufficient quality for streamflow prediction using the SRM in the snowmelt‐dominated basins. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
B. Yu  Z. Zhu 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1200-1212
Abstract

The Australian Water Balance model (AWBM) and the SimHyd rainfall–runoff model are conceptual models widely used for simulating daily flows in Australia. To evaluate their ability to model non-stationary daily flows, to quantify the effect of land disturbance, and to assess their performance in catchments outside Australia, these two models were applied to two small watersheds, the Fernow watershed No. 6 in West Virginia, USA, for the period 1959–2009, and the River Rimbaud watershed in the French Alps for the period 1968–2006. Both watersheds have experienced well documented disturbances as a result of clearing and fire, respectively. The modelling protocol followed was adopted for a workshop on hydrology under change, held during the 2013 IAHS Assembly in Göteborg, Sweden, which was based on split-sample tests. On balance, the AWBM worked marginally better than SimHyd for these two catchments, and neither model worked satisfactorily for the Fernow watershed where forest clearing, application of herbicide and changes in species composition had occurred. There is little difference in terms of model performance between periods when land disturbances occurred and other periods with relatively stable conditions. Conceptual models are better equipped to simulate climate-driven variations in the observed streamflow (e.g. the River Rimbaud), and inadequate in reproducing streamflow variability as a result of complex forest management practices.  相似文献   

17.
This study examined the effect of urbanization on stream hydrology in hillslope watersheds. Ten streams (seven in hillslope and three in gentle slope watersheds) around Austin, Texas were selected for analysis. For each stream, we compared parameters of transfer function (TF) models estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data collected in two study periods (October 1988–September 1992 and October 2004–September 2008) representing different degrees of watershed urbanization. As expected, the streams became more intermittent as the watersheds were more urbanized in all the study streams. However, the effect of urbanization on peakflow differs between hillslope and gentle slope watersheds. After watershed urbanization, peakflow increased in gentle slope watersheds, but decreased in hillslope watersheds. Based on the results of the TF models, we found that urbanization made stream not flashier but drier in hillslope watersheds. Overpumpage of aquifer has been recognized as a problem that leads to the stream dryness in the study area. However, the overpumpage alone cannot explain the differences in hydrological changes between the two types of watersheds. We attributed the reduced peakflow and stream dryness in the hillslope watersheds to land grading for construction forming stair‐stepped or terraced landscape. Compared with natural hillslope, a stair‐stepped landscape could infiltrate more stormwater by slowing down surface runoff on tread portions of the stair. Our findings suggest that a watershed management scheme should take into account local hydrogeologic conditions to mitigate the stream dryness resulting from urbanization in hillslope watersheds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Changes in climate may significantly affect how sediment moves through watersheds into harbours and channels that are dredged for navigation or flood control. Here, we applied a hydrologic model driven by a large suite of climate change scenarios to simulate both historical and future sediment yield and transport in two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Using historical dredging expenditure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, we then developed a pair of statistical models that link sediment discharge from each river to dredging costs at the watershed outlet. Although both watersheds show similar slight decreases in streamflow and sediment yield in the near‐term, by Mid‐Century, they diverge substantially. Dredging costs are projected to change in opposite directions for the two watersheds; we estimate that future dredging costs will decline in the St. Joseph River by 8–16% by Mid‐Century but increase by 1–6% in the Maumee River. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on sediment yield and dredging may vary significantly by watershed even within a region and that agricultural practices will play a large role in determining future streamflow and sediment loads. We also show that there are large variations in responses across climate projections that cause significant uncertainty in sediment and dredging projections.  相似文献   

19.
The lower Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin in the Southeast United States represents a major agricultural area underlain by the highly productive karstic Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA). During El Niño Southern Oscillation‐induced droughts, intense groundwater withdrawal for irrigation lowers streamflow in the Flint River due to its hydraulic connectivity with the UFA and threatens the habitat of the federally listed and endangered aquatic biota. This study assessed the compounding hydrologic effects of increased irrigation pumping during drought years (2010–2012) on stream–aquifer water exchange (stream–aquifer flux) between the Flint River and UFA using the United States Geological Survey modular finite element groundwater flow model. Principal component and K‐means clustering analyses were used to identify critical stream reaches and tributaries that are adversely affected by irrigation pumping. Additionally, the effectiveness of possible water restriction scenarios on stream–aquifer flux was also analysed. Moreover, a cost–benefit analysis of acreage buyout procedure was conducted for various water restriction scenarios. Results indicate that increased groundwater withdrawal in Water Year 2011 decreased baseflow in the lower Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin, particularly, in Spring Creek, where irrigation pumping during April, June, and July changed the creek condition from a gaining to losing stream. Results from sensitivity analysis and simulated water restrictions suggest that reducing pumping in selected sensitive areas is more effective in streamflow recovery (approximately 78%) than is reducing irrigation intensity by a prescribed percentage of current pumping rates, such as 15% or 30%, throughout the basin. Moreover, analysis of acreage buyout indicates that restrictions on irrigation withdrawal can have significant impacts on stream–aquifer flux in the Basin, especially in critical watersheds such as Spring and Ichawaynochaway Creeks. The proposed procedure for ranking of stream reaches (sensitivity analysis) in this study can be replicated in other study areas/models. This study provides useful information to policymakers for devising alternate irrigation water withdrawal policies during droughts for maintaining flow levels in the study area.  相似文献   

20.
Summer streamflow droughts are becoming more severe in many watersheds on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, as a result of climate warming. Small coastal basins that are the primary water source for most communities and essential to Pacific salmon populations have been particularly affected. Because the most extreme naturally occurring droughts are rarely captured within short instrumental records water managers likely underestimate, and are unprepared for, worst‐case scenario low flows. To provide a long‐term perspective on recent droughts on Vancouver Island, we developed a 477‐year long dendrohydrological reconstruction of summer streamflow for Tsable River based on a network of annual tree‐ring width data. A novel aspect of our study is the use of conifer trees that are energy limited by spring snowmelt timing. Explaining 63% of the instrumental streamflow variability, to our knowledge the reconstruction is the longest of its kind in British Columbia. We demonstrate that targeting the summer streamflow component derived from snowmelt is powerful for determining drought‐season discharge in hybrid runoff regimes, and we suggest that this approach may be applied to small watersheds in temperate environments that are not usually conducive to dendrohydrology. Our findings suggest that since 1520, 21 droughts occurred that were more extreme than recent ‘severe’ events like those in 2003 and 2009. Recent droughts are therefore not anomalous relative to the ~400‐year pre‐instrumental record and should be anticipated within water management strategies. In coming decades, worst‐case scenario natural droughts compounded by land use change and climate change could result in droughts more severe than any since 1520. The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on instrumental and modelled Tsable River summer streamflow is likely linked to the enhanced role of snowmelt in determining summer discharge during cool phases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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