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1.
Seismic shear‐wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low‐level deformation of fluid‐saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large earthquakes to be stress‐forecast. The effects have been seen with hindsight before some 15 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from an M1.7 seismic swarm event in Iceland to the Ms7.7 Chi‐Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, including a successfully stress‐forecast of a M5.0 earthquake in SW Iceland. Characteristic increases in SWS time‐delays are observed before large earthquakes, which abruptly change to deceases shortly before the earthquake occurs. There is a linear relationship between magnitudes and logarithms of durations of both increases and decreases in SWS time‐delays before large impending earthquakes. However, suitably persistent swarms of small earthquakes are too scarce for routine stress‐forecasting. Reliable forecasting requires controlled‐source cross‐hole seismics between neighbouring boreholes in stress‐monitoring sites (SMS). It would be possible to stress‐forecast damaging earthquakes worldwide by a global network of SMS in real time.  相似文献   

2.
The occurrence of earthquake swarms is typically related to magmatic activity in volcanoes, yet swarms are also common in other intracontinental regions such as continental rifts. We present here a summary of geophysical observations that have been made in earthquake swarm areas of the Rio Grande, Kenya, and Eger rifts, focusing on characteristic parameters for the origin and generation of the swarm earthquakes.Our compilation of seismological parameters such as spatial distribution and focal parameters of hypocenters, magnitude statistics, and the location of the swarm centres in the rift environments reveals major similarities. The earthquake swarms take place at shallow depth between 0 and 10 km. The maximum magnitudes are mostly less than 4.5. The b-values, indicating the magnitude frequency relation of the seismicity, are about 0.8. They are hence not deviating from a normal non-volcanic intraplate environment, but are considerably lower than those of volcanic earthquake swarms. Focal mechanism studies give uniform pictures of stress field orientation and faulting style for the swarm areas. In all three rifts, the centres of swarm activity seem to be restricted to rift valley sections that may be influenced by large-scale fracture or shear zones that intersect the rifts. We conclude that these deep-reaching zones of weakness allow intrusions of upper mantle material into crustal layers, where magma-related fluids or fluctuations of the magma bodies themselves cause the generation of earthquake swarms.  相似文献   

3.
At trenches a few earthquake swarms of low magnitude have been observed before the medium size earthquake swarms. The first swarm was designated as precursory swarm and the second as mainshocks. Seismicity fluctuations before six such mainshocks events of medium size earthquakes of magnitudes ranging from 5.3 to 6.1 occurring in the east belt of Taiwan region have been discussed. A precursory gap between the precursory swarm and mainshock events has been observed. The duration of the gaps increases with magnitudes of the mainshocks suggesting a causal relationship between the two. Regression equations between the largest magnitude in the precursory swarms, the largest mainshock magnitude and the precusory gaps have been given.  相似文献   

4.
Weak tidal correlation of NW-Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
We analyze the possible effect of solid Earth tidal stresses upon a vertical strike-slip fault in NW-Bohemia/Vogtland, central Europe, typical by occurrence of swarm earthquakes. The horizontal components of solid Earth tidal stresses were found strongly to prevail and to reach the level of 2 kPa. We examined tidal triggering as influence of tidal stresses to launching the swarm activity in relative absence of other stress disturbances. The onset times of 46 swarms of mostly ML < 3 earthquakes that occurred in the period 1991–2005 displayed an increased occurrence near the fortnightly maximum of tidal extensive normal stress. The statistical test however did not prove a statistically significant correlation indicating a triggering effect of fault extension due to tidal loading. We also examined tidal effects to the already running seismic activity of the prominent 2000 swarm by comparing the tidal stress distribution in the investigated period with the distribution of tidal stresses in the occurrence times of each earthquake. The results show that these distributions are almost similar, which indicates that individual earthquakes occur independent of tidal stresses. The unclear tidal correlation of the swarm seismicity may be interpreted by small amplitudes and rates of tidal stress changes compared to the amplitudes and rates of coseismic stress perturbations and of pressure bursts of deep generated fluids.  相似文献   

5.
A growing body of evidence suggests that fluids are intimately linked to a variety of faulting processes. Yet, the particular mechanisms through which fluids and associated parameters influence the stress regime and thus the seismicity of a particular area are not well understood.We carry out a study of the spatio-temporal behavior of earthquakes, fluid-related parameters (groundwater levels) and meteorological observables (precipitation) in the swarm earthquake area of Bad Reichenhall, southeastern Germany. The small volume in which the earthquakes take place, almost yearly occurring earthquake swarms and a permanent, seismo-meteorological monitoring network, provide nearly controlled experimental conditions to study the physics of earthquake swarms and to infer characteristic properties of the seismogenic crust.In this paper we (1) describe this fairly unique study area in terms of geology, seismicity and atmospheric conditions; (2) present two cases of earthquake swarms that seem to follow above-average rainfall events; and (3) examine the observed migration of hypocenters with a simple pore pressure diffusion model.We find significant correlation of seismicity with rainfall and groundwater level increase, and estimate an average hydraulic diffusivity of D = 0.75 ± 0.35 m2/s for Mt. Hochstaufen in 2002.  相似文献   

6.
Earthquake swarms of Mt Cameroon, West Africa   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Historical and recent instrumental studies of the central region of the Cameroon Volcanic Line clearly indicate the occurrence of earthquake swarms of volcanic origin. Analyses of more than 3000 micro-earthquakes recorded between 1985 and 1992 show a well-defined seismic pattern characterised by single and swarm events with duration magnitudes between 2 and 3 at depths down to 20 km. On average, the earthquakes here occur at the rate of about 2 events every 3 days with occasional earthquake swarms, which greatly increase this number. The seismic swarms comprising felt earthquakes are shown to be sometimes preceded by, simultaneous with, or followed by swarms from Bimbia and Equatorial Guinea. Mapped epicentres of some of these swarms correspond to regions of volcanic gas emissions and are parallel to the fissures on Mt Cameroon and to the inferred direction of the underlying shear zone.The quiescent periods between swarms are seen to double each year since 1986. This observation was used to predict a major seismic swarm which occurred in 1993. The data coupled with historical data, are used to infer the involvement of a magma chamber in the generation of the earthquake swarms in the region. Since the installation of the network, no eruption has been observed on Mt Cameroon. This warrants more observation in order to study the seismicity that may precede, accompany or follow an eruption of the mountain.  相似文献   

7.
The slow spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridge system containing the Carlsberg, Central and Southwest Indian ridges is seismically very active. In the present study, a detailed analysis has been carried out of the data of earthquake sources along different ridge segments in order to investigate the spatial and temporal clustering patterns and to evaluate crustal processes related to the swarm occurrences along these ridges. The spatial and temporal clustering pattern of the recent earthquakes (1980–1990) pertaining to nine major spreading segments and eight fracture zones suggests that the events cluster in greater proportion along the spreading segments than along the fracture zones. We performed a systematic search of earthquake catalogue during the period 1964–1990 by examining the spatio-temporal hypocentral clusters in order to identify the swarm occurrences along these ridges. The search included eighteen prominent sequences, of which, thirteen were earthquake swarms. Except two, all other swarms were found to be occurring mainly on the spreading segments. The maximum magnitude observed in these swarms is mb = 5.4 and have many events predominantly showing normal faulting mechanisms. The spatial disposition and temporal activity of the events in swarms is much similar to the foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences observed along the spreading rift valley zones. These characteristics help us to support that swarms along the slow spreading mid-Indian Ocean ridges are the result of extensional tectonic activity, leading to the development of the median valley topography, a mechanism similar to that proposed by Bergman and Solomon (1990) for the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.  相似文献   

8.
Results of a statistical investigation of the magnitude and time distributions of foreshocks in the area of Greece are reported. Further evidence is presented that the parameter b, in the frequency—magnitude relation, has a smaller value before than after the main shock, and that the time distribution of foreshocks follows a statistical law similar to that followed by aftershocks. The difference in magnitude between the main shock and the largest foreshock seems to be independent of the magnitude of the main shock. The average of this difference has been found equal to about two magnitude units. The significance of these results to the problem of statistical prediction of earthquakes is noted.  相似文献   

9.
In the lower Rhône Valley (France), the Tricastin area was struck in 2002–2003 by an earthquake swarm with a maximum M L-magnitude of 1.7. These shocks would have gone unnoticed if they had not occurred beneath habitations and close to the surface, some events being only 200-m deep. A several months' monitoring of the seismic activity by a 16-station mobile network showed that earthquakes clustered along a N–S-trending, at least 5-km long, shallow rupture zone, with no corresponding fault mapped in the surface. Half of the seismic events occurred in a massive, c.  250-m-thick, Lower Cretaceous limestone slab that outcrops near by. Since the late eighteenth century, several much more severe earthquake swarms have struck Tricastin. The 1772–1773 and 1933–1936 swarms were prolific and protracted, with reports of numerous detonations and even damage. Obviously, the abnormal noises that caused panic in the past centuries can be explained by the shallowness of the phenomena, a 200-m focal depth being perhaps a record value for tectonic earthquakes.  相似文献   

10.
The continued reservoir-triggered seismicity for five decades in Koyna area has been attributed to southward migration of seismicity (during 1967–1992 near and south of Koyna dam and from 1993 onwards mostly near the new Warna reservoir). Spread of seismicity in the vicinity of reservoirs is attributed to pore-pressure diffusion. Moderate size Koyna–Warna earthquakes are found to nucleate at shallow depth (≤ 3 km) due to pore pressure caused by water level fluctuation of reservoir(s). The nucleation zone deepens along the critically stressed permeable fault zone to cause the occurrence of mainshock at the base of seismogenic layer (i.e. 5–10 km). The clustering of foreshocks up to 500 hr prior to several moderate size Koyna earthquakes of magnitude Mw 4–5 has been detected and used for quantifying the nucleation process. A static stress transfer by means of cascade model from one foreshock to next for the generation of foreshocks has been proposed for nucleation model. The nucleation process can be considered as an immediate earthquake precursor for the Koyna-Warna region.  相似文献   

11.
针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律：sf（k）=1.48ksc,其中sf（k）和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件（加速性地震活动前兆）预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震（如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等）的回溯性检验分析表明：强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈＂大—小—大＂型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议：建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段（闭锁区域）判识的地质与地球物理研究等。  相似文献   

12.
Shoubiao Zhu 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(2):1261-1279
The sudden and unexpected Wenchuan earthquake (Ms = 8.0) occurred on the Longmen Shan Fault, causing a large number of casualties and huge property loss. Almost no definite precursors were reported prior to this event by Chinese scientists, who made a first successful prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (M = 7.3) in China. Does the unsuccessful prediction of the Wenchuan earthquake mean earthquake prediction is inherently impossible? In order to answer this question, the paper simulated inter- and co-seismic deformation, and recurrence of strong earthquakes associated with the Longmen Shan listric thrust fault by means of viscoelastic finite element method. The modeling results show that the computed interseismic strain accumulation in the lower crust beneath the Eastern Tibet is much faster than that in the other regions. In particular, the elastic strain energy density rate accumulates very rapid in and around the Longmen Shan fault in the depth above ~25 km that may explain why the great Wenchuan earthquake occurs in the region of such a slow surface deformation rate. The modeled coseismic displacements around the fault are consistent with surface rupture, aftershock distribution, and GPS measurement. Also, the model displays the slip history on the Longmen Shan fault, implying that the average earthquake recurrence interval on the Longmen Shan fault is very long, 3,300 years, which is in good agreement with the observed by paleoseismological investigations and estimates by other methods. Moreover, the model results indicate that the future earthquake could be evaluated based on numerical computation, rather than on precursors or on statistics. Numerical earthquake prediction (NEP) seems to be a promising avenue to a successful prediction, which will play an important part in natural hazard mitigation. NEP is difficult but possible, which needs well supporting.  相似文献   

13.
Several thousand aftershocks of the August 1, 1975 Oroville, California, earthquake (ML = 5.7) were recorded by an 8-station field-seismic network. Focal coordinates of 104 of these events were fitted by least-squares to a plane striking N07°W and dipping 59°W; the strike (but not the dip) of this plane is in good agreement with that (N09°W) obtained from a fault-plane solution for a large foreshock 8 sec before the main shock, and it agrees fairly well with the trend (N15°W) of structural lineaments in the vicinity of Lake Oroville. The surface trace of the plane of foci passes through the Oroville Dam, as well as through surface cracking 12 km south of the dam. The main shock occurred 7 years after the filling of Lake Oroville, but only a month after the most rapid filling since 1968. The rate of aftershock occurrence during the first month decayed approximately as1/t. Event duration was measured for more than 2,000 aftershocks during August and September; average log-duration, taken over samples of 100 events, decreased gradually during this period. Close-in spectra obtained from strong-motion recordings of several of the larger aftershocks have corner frequencies that are quite high compared to other western U.S. earthquakes of similar magnitude. The Oroville earthquakes had several features in common with another Sierra Nevada earthquake sequence, near Truckee, California, in September, 1966.  相似文献   

14.
震级-频度分布（FMD）是地震学研究中最重要的经验公式之一,相关系数b是构造学和地震危险性评估的重要因子,具有表征前震和余震的特性。辽宁省地震多发生在金州断裂附近,自1975年海城7.3级地震发生后,与金州断裂交汇的海城河—大洋河断裂开启活跃模式,其东南端岫岩附近在1999年又发生5.6级地震。近年来盖州附近地震活动也在增强。因此,本文利用b值空间分布特征对海城及其邻区的应力分布特点进行研究。震源定位准确与否直接影响b值计算,双差定位后的数据与常规目录相比具有更高的精度,但是完整性有一定下降。本文收集了中国地震台网1981—2005年的辽宁省地震目录,并进行双差定位,比较分析了常规目录数据和双差数据的b值分布差异,认为在地震密集区,双差定位后的数据可以被用来获得更准确的b值。对主要研究区进行网格划分,使用双差数据,得到b值的水平和垂直分布特征。结果表明：b值为0.6~1.8,随深度增加而降低;岫岩和盖州震区具有较低的b值,意味着具有较高的地震危险性;浑河震区与海城河—大洋河断裂东南方向具有较高的b值,说明该区域未来发生大地震的概率很低;与金州断裂交汇区域的b值在1.0附近,说明该地区应力暂时处于稳定状态,未来具有较低的地震危险性。  相似文献   

15.
We investigate the properties of the April 2007 earthquake swarm (Mw 5.2) which occurred at the vicinity of Lake Trichonis (western Greece). First we relocated the earthquakes, using P- and S-wave arrivals to the stations of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN), and then we applied moment tensor inversion to regional broad-band waveforms to obtain the focal mechanisms of the strongest events of the 2007 swarm. The relocated epicentres, cluster along the eastern banks of the lake, and follow a distinct NNW–ESE trend. The previous strong sequence close to Lake Trichonis occurred in June–December 1975. We applied teleseismic body waveform inversion, to obtain the focal mechanism solution of the strongest earthquake of this sequence, i.e. the 31 December 1975 (Mw 6.0) event. Our results indicate that: a) the 31 December 1975 Mw 6.0 event was produced by a NW–SE normal fault, dipping to the NE, with considerable sinistral strike-slip component; we relocated its epicentre: i) using phase data reported to ISC and its coordinates are 38.486°N, 21.661°E; ii) using the available macroseismic data, and the coordinates of the macroseismic epicentre are 38.49°N, 21.63°E, close to the strongly affected village of Kato Makrinou; b) the earthquakes of the 2007 swarm indicate a NNW–SSE strike for the activated main structure, parallel to the eastern banks of Lake Trichonis, dipping to the NE and characterized by mainly normal faulting, occasionally combined with sinistral strike-slip component. The 2007 earthquake swarm did not rupture the well documented E–W striking Trichonis normal fault that bounds the southern flank of the lake, but on the contrary it is due to rupture of a NW–SE normal fault that strikes at a  45° angle to the Trichonis fault. The left-lateral component of faulting is mapped for the first time to the north of the Gulf of Patras which was previously regarded as the boundary for strike-slip motions in western Greece. This result signifies the importance of further investigations to unravel in detail the tectonics of this region.  相似文献   

16.
The Tjörnes Fracture Zone separates Iceland's North Volcanic Zone from Kolbeinsey-Ridge (Greenland-Sea). Seismicity mainly occurs in swarms, often 100 and more per day, with similar waveforms and frequently offshore.We analysed three earthquake swarms between June and September 2004, recorded by 35 stations, i.e. the permanent Icelandic SIL network and a temporary setup of land and ocean-bottom-seismometers, and 5 swarms of the years 1994-1997 only using the sparser SIL network. Events occurring in the same swarm often show similar waveforms at the same station. We cross-correlated these time series by using a new approach of three component cross-correlation in order to relocate the hypocenters relative within the swarms and to precisely determine the direction and velocity of migration. Our method delivered good relocations with small spatial and temporal errors. This allows the interpretation and characterisation of the observed earthquake swarms. We try to classify observed migration velocities by comparing them to typical fluid- and crack-propagation velocities and determine focal-mechanisms and orientation of the best fitting plane through the hypocenter distribution.We separate the investigated events into two types of earthquake swarms, supposedly dike-induced and hydrothermally- or gas-induced swarms, by pointing out typical characteristics of both types and by comparing them to similar events of other volcanic regions. Based on different migration velocities, we will discuss possible mechanisms and their triggers of all single clusters within a swarm. Hypothetic models will be established, trying to explain the processes during the swarm episodes and to derive possible pre-eruptive patterns from the character of seismicity.  相似文献   

17.
基于集集强震群序列地震特征的地震追踪预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
郑魁香  赵汝仁 《地学前缘》2002,9(2):493-498
分析集集强震群前余震序列的 7年 (1993/ 0 9/ 2 1— 2 0 0 0 / 0 9/ 2 0 )中震级规模在M =3 0以上的地震目录 ,可以找到前震类型、孕震空区特征、孕震条带特征、前震丛集性活动与信号震特征、主震前平静以及余震序列的二次余震等至少 6项清楚的地震序列特征。利用已发展出的年度强震趋势分析步骤的经验 ,佐以依据地震序列特征进一步加以追踪的观念 ,以集集地震序列分析为例 ,试图将地震趋势分析由年的时间尺度 ,追踪到更短的月的时间范围 ;并尝试建立台湾地区西部地震带浅源强震的追踪分析步骤 ,并为以测震学为基础的地震预测提供逼近短临时间尺度的分析方法。  相似文献   

18.
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19.
朱航  何畅 《地球科学》2014,39(12):1776-1782
2006年4月以来, 四川长宁、兴文、珙县交界区域相继出现注水诱发地震活动, 至2013年4月30日共发生ML4.0以上地震16次, 最大为2013年4月25日ML5.2地震.通过采用体波谱振幅相关系数方法研究长宁注水诱发地震序列ML3.0以上地震震源机制变化过程, 结果显示序列震源机制散乱; 利用CAP方法计算了序列中ML4.0以上12次地震的震源机制解, 结果同样表明其机制紊乱.分析认为: 钻孔加压注水引起附近岩体的孔隙压力增大及先存断层面的摩擦系数减小, 这2种变化均导致库仑应力变化Δσf增大, 从而促进地震的发生.因此, 注水诱发地震活动期间, 研究区构造应力场的应力强度无明显增强, 对破裂方向也无明显的约束作用, 故地震序列震源机制发散.   相似文献   

20.
Y. Y. Kagan 《Tectonophysics》1997,270(3-4):207-219
This note discusses three interconnected statistical problems concerning the Parkfield sequence of moderate earthquakes and the Parkfield prediction experiment: (a) Is it possible that the quasi-periodic Parkfield sequence of characteristic earthquakes is no uncommon, specific phenomenon (the research hypothesis), but can be explained by a preferential selection from available earthquake catalogs? To this end we formulate the null hypothesis (earthquakes occur according to the Poisson process in time and their size follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation). We test whether the null hypothesis can be rejected as an explanation for the Parkfield sequence. (b) If the null hypothesis cannot be refuted, what is the probability of magnitude m ≥ 6 earthquake occurrence in the Parkfield region? (c) The direct goal of the Parkfield experiment is the registration of precursory phenomena prior to a m6 earthquake. However, in the absence of the characteristic earthquake, can the experiment resolve which of the two competing hypotheses is true in a reasonable time? Statistical analysis is hindered by an insufficiently rigorous definition of the research model and inadequate or ambiguous data. However, we show that the null hypothesis cannot be decisively rejected. The quasi-periodic pattern of intermediate size earthquakes in the Parkfield area is a statistical event likely to occur by chance if it has been preferentially selected from available earthquake catalogs. The observed magnitude-frequency curves for small and intermediate earthquakes in the Parkfield area agree with the theoretical distribution computed on the basis of a modified Gutenberg-Richter law (gamma distribution), using deformation rates for the San Andreas fault. We show that the size distribution of the Parkfield characteristic earthquakes can also be attributed to selection bias. According to the null hypothesis, the yearly probability of a m ≥ 6 earthquake originating in the Parkfield area is less than 1%, signifying that several more decades of observation may be needed before the expected event occurs. By its design, the Parkfield experiment cannot be expected to yield statistically significant conclusions on the validity of the research hypothesis for many decades.  相似文献   

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