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1.
The atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970?C1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500?hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070?C2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to ?300?km3/year with respect to the 1970?C1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5?cm by the end of the 21st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.  相似文献   

2.
The future rate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) deglaciation and the future contribution of GrIS deglaciation to sea level rise will depend critically on the magnitude of northern hemispheric polar amplification and global equilibrium climate sensitivity. Here, these relationships are analyzed using an ensemble of multi-century coupled ice-sheet/climate model simulations seeded with observationally-constrained initial conditions and then integrated forward under tripled preindustrial CO2. Polar amplifications and climate sensitivities were varied between ensemble members in order to bracket current uncertainty in polar amplification and climate sensitivity. A large inter-ensemble spread in mean GrIS air temperature, albedo and surface mass balance trends stemming from this uncertainty resulted in GrIS ice volume loss ranging from 5 to 40 % of the original ice volume after 500 years. The large dependence of GrIS deglaciation on polar amplification and climate sensitivity that we find indicates that the representation of these processes in climate models will exert a strong control on any simulated predictions of multi-century GrIS evolution. Efforts to reduce polar amplification and equilibrium climate sensitivity uncertainty will therefore play a critical role in constraining projections of GrIS deglaciation and sea level rise in a future high-CO2 world.  相似文献   

3.
In order to assess the impact of the mid-tropospheric circulation over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on surface melt, as simulated by the regional climate model MAR, an automatic Circulation type classification (CTC) based on 500?hPa geopotential height from reanalyses is developed. General circulation correlates significantly with the surface melt anomalies for the summers in the period 1958?C2009. The record surface melt events observed during the summers of 2007?C2009 are linked to the exceptional persistence of atmospheric circulations favouring warm air advection. The CTC emphasizes that summer 500?hPa circulation patterns have changed since the beginning of the 2000s; this process is partly responsible for the recent warming observed over the GrIS.  相似文献   

4.
Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet.  相似文献   

5.
The present and twenty-first century near-surface wind climate of Greenland is presented using output from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2. The modelled wind variability and wind distribution compare favourably to observations from three automatic weather stations in the ablation zone of southwest Greenland. The Weibull shape parameter is used to classify the wind climate. High values (κ > 4) are found in northern Greenland, indicative of uniform winds and a dominant katabatic forcing, while lower values (κ < 3) are found over the ocean and southern Greenland, where the synoptic forcing dominates. Very high values of the shape parameter are found over concave topography where confluence strengthens the katabatic circulation, while very low values are found in a narrow band along the coast due to barrier winds. To simulate the future (2081–2098) wind climate RACMO2 was forced with the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model using a scenario of mid-range radiative forcing of +4.5 W m?2 by 2100. For the future simulated climate, the near-surface potential temperature deficit reduces in all seasons in regions where the surface temperature is below the freezing point, indicating a reduction in strength of the near-surface temperature inversion layer. This leads to a wind speed reduction over the central ice sheet where katabatic forcing dominates, and a wind speed increase over steep coastal topography due to counteracting effects of thermal and katabatic forcing. Thermally forced winds over the seasonally sea ice covered region of the Greenland Sea are reduced by up to 2.5 m s?1.  相似文献   

6.
Greenland ice cores offer seasonal to annual records of δ18O, a proxy for precipitation-weighted temperature, over the last few centuries to millennia. Here, we investigate the regional footprints of the North Atlantic weather regimes on Greenland isotope and climate variability, using a compilation of 22 different shallow ice-cores and the atmospheric pressure conditions from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR). As a first step we have verified that the leading modes of winter and annual δ18O are well correlated with oceanic (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) and atmospheric [North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)] indices respectively, and also marginally with external forcings, thus confirming earlier studies. The link between weather regimes and Greenland precipitation, precipitation-weighted temperature and δ18O is further explored by using an isotope simulation from the LMDZ-iso model, where the 3-dimensional wind fields are nudged to those of 20CR. In winter, the NAO+ and NAO? regimes in LMDZ-iso produce the largest isotopic changes over the entire Greenland region, with maximum anomalies in the South. Likewise, the Scandinavian blocking and the Atlantic ridge also show remarkable imprints on isotopic composition over the region. To assess the robustness and model dependency of our findings, a second isotope simulation from the isotopic model is also explored. The percentage of Greenland δ18O variance explained by the ensemble of weather regimes is increased by a factor near two in both LMDZ-iso and IsoGSM when compared to the contribution of the NAO index only. Similarly, weather regimes provide a net gain in the δ18O variance explained of similar magnitude for the whole set of ice core records. Greenland δ18O also appears to be locally affected by the low-frequency variations in the centres of action of the weather regimes, with clearer imprints in the LMDZ-iso simulation. This study opens the possibility for reconstructing past changes in the frequencies of occurrence of the weather regimes, which would rely on the sensitive regions identified here, and the use of additional proxies over the North Atlantic region.  相似文献   

7.
The present paper reports chemistry and fluxes of dust-carbon mixed coarse particles. For the purpose of this study, different carbonaceous fractions i.e. organic carbon ((OC), elemental carbon (EC) and carbonate carbon (CC) of atmospheric dust and their respective local soils were quantified at three sites of National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi viz. Jawaharlal Nehru University campus (JNU), Connaught Place (CP) and Vishali area of Ghaziabad (GB). It has been observed that the OC and EC levels were approximately five to nine times higher in urban atmospheric dust than their corresponding soils, whereas CC levels were about three times higher than the corresponding soils. Average dustfall fluxes were significantly different at all the sites due to their different land-use patterns. At urban background site (JNU), the dust flux was lowest (172 mg/m2/day) followed by CP, a commercial site, (192 mg/m2/day) and GB, an industrial/residential area, (302 mg/m2/day). Similar to the dustfall pattern, the mean values of OC, EC and CC deposition fluxes were also observed to be lowest at JNU (9.2, 0.8 and 1.0 mg/m2/day, respectively) as compared to CP (12.2, 1.2 and 1.3 mg/m2/day, respectively) and GB sites (11.1, 1.1 and 1.4 mg/m2/day, respectively). Interestingly, unlike fine mode, different correlation pattern of OC and EC in coarse mode dust aerosols at three sites has suggested their independent deposition processes and source contribution. Fluxes of major water soluble inorganic ions (Na+, NH4 +, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, F?, Cl?, NO3 ? and SO4 2?) were also determined. Ca2+, Cl? and SO4 2? were found to be the major ionic species of water soluble fraction of the urban dust at all the sites. These interactions are corroborated by the morphology of the mixed aerosols. High levels of measured chemical species and their spatial distribution revealed close correspondence with the local emissions from transport, industries, biomass burning, road dust and construction activities etc.  相似文献   

8.
The Asian dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2) with the MM5 meteorological model has been employed to study long-range transport process of Asian dust and to estimate dust emission, deposition (wet and dry) and concentration over the Asian dust source region and the downwind regions for dust events observed in Korea during the period of 20–29 December 2009, which is one of the dust events chosen by the 3rd Meeting of Working Group for Joint Research on Dust Sand Storm among Mongolia, China, Japan and Korea to study intensively for the development of an early warning system in Asia. It is found that the model simulates quite well the starting and ending times of dust events and the peak dust concentrations with their occurrence times both in the source region and downwind regions. The dust emission in the dust source region is found to be associated with a developing synoptic weather system accompanied with strong surface winds over the source region that usually travels east to southeastward across the source region and then turns to move northeastward toward the north western Pacific Ocean. The dust emitted in the source region is found to be split into two parts: one is transported southeastward to the East China Sea in front of the surface high pressure system and experiencing enhanced deposition due to the sinking motion induced by the southeastward traveling the surface high pressure system whereas, the other moves northeastward toward the surface low pressure system and then lifted upward to form a upper-level high dust concentration layer that results in a favorable condition for the long-range transport of dust. It is also found that the maximum ten-day total dust emission of about 23 t km?2 occurs in the domain Northwestern China (NWC). However, the maximum ten-day total dust deposition of 21 t km?2 with the maximum mean surface concentration of 555 μg m?3 and the column integrated mean concentration of 2.9 g m?2 occurs in the domain Central-northern China (CNC). The column-integrated PM10 concentration is found to increase toward northeastward especially in the domain North northeastern China (NNEC) due to the upper-level transported high PM10 concentration. The ten-day total dust deposition, mean surface PM10 and column integrated PM10 concentrations in the downwind domains are found to decrease away from the source region from 2.44 t km?2, 112 μg m?3 and 1.68 g m?2, respectively in the domain YES to 0.06 t km?2, 2.1 μg m?3 and 0.4 g m?2, respectively in the domain Northwestern Pacific 1 (NWP1). Much of the total dust deposition is largely contributed by wet deposition in the far downwind region of the seas while that is contributed by dry deposition in the source region.  相似文献   

9.
Annual precipitation,evaporation,and calculated accumulation from reanalysis model outputs have been investigated for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS),based on the common period of 1989-2001.The ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data showed better agreement with observations than do NCEP-1 and NCEP-2 reanalyses.Further,ERA-interim showed the closest spatial distribution of accumulation to the observation.Concerning temporal variations,ERA-interim showed the best correlation with precipitation observations at five synoptic stations,and the best correlation with in situ measurements of accumulation at nine ice core sites.The mean annual precipitation averaged over the whole GrIS from ERA-interim (363 mm yr 1) and mean annual accumulation (319 mm yr 1) are very close to the observations.The validation of accumulation calculated from reanalysis data against ice-core measurements suggests that further improvements to reanalysis models are needed.  相似文献   

10.
The results of a 8 year survey of wet and dry depositions collected in Bologna (Northern Italy) are presented and discussed: monthly fluxes of the main ions (hydrogen, sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, ammoniacal and nitrate nitrogen, sulphate and chloride) have been registered and statistically discussed. The trend of hydrogen ion, whose largest correlation in the global deposition was found with sulphate, is clearly downwards, with peaks mainly in winter months. By means of a data factor analysis, three main sources to explain the variability of the deposition chemistry were recognized: an anthropogenic contribution (particularly represented by NO3 −, SO4 2−, H+), the sea spray (Na+, Cl− and, to a lesser extent, K+ and Mg2+) and a terrigenous fraction, particularly characterized by higher Ca2+ concentration; however, some concentration peaks of this ion have been found in association with some episodes of Saharan dust transportation.  相似文献   

11.
This study investigated meteorological, physical, and chemical characteristics of 2 severe Hwangsa (Asian dust, maximum average of PM10 above 1000 μg m?3) observed in Seoul, the capital city of Korea, during 30～31st May, 2008 (DSS2008) and 25～26th December, 2009 (DSS2009). DSS2008 and DSS2009 had a same source region and route. However, they have different meteorological conditions. DSS2009 had a shorter travel time from the source region to Korea and shorter duration time in Korea than DSS2008 due to a strong winter Siberian anticyclone. One of DSS2008 sample was affected by not only Asian dust but also a long-range transported haze due to consecutive influx after low pressure passed while DSS2009 sample collected only dust aerosol. For both cases, the mass concentration of coarse particles (PM10-1) increased by 3～14 times compared to that during non Asian dust period, however, that of fine particles (PM1) increased only in DSS2008. For DSS2008 water-soluble ion balance between anions and cations in fine mode was close to 1:1 while cations were higher than anions in coarse mode. NH4 + and Ca2+ were found to be the main contributing factors for the neutralization. Cl? loss was observed about 60% indicating an active interaction of Na+ with pollutants. Reconstruction of chemical compositions showed relatively high concentrations of secondary pollutants (NH4NO3 and (NH4)2SO4), CaCO3, and Ca(NO3)2 compared to that during non Asian dust period. DSS2009 exhibited the typical characteristics of Asian dust having a high concentration of Ca2+ with higher equivalent concentration of cations than anions in all size bins. Cl? loss was hardly observed. The secondary pollutants were lower than that of non Asian dust cases. The result of reconstruction of ionic components indicated the CaCO3 derived from soil particle, CaSO4, and Ca (NO3)2 were dominant in DSS2009.  相似文献   

12.
Measurements from ETH-Camp and JAR1 AWS (West Greenland) as well as coupled atmosphere-snow regional climate simulations have highlighted flaws in the cross-polarized gradient ratio (XPGR) technique used to identify melt from passive microwave satellite data. It was found that dense clouds (causing notably rainfall) on the ice sheet severely perturb the XPGR melt signal. Therefore, the original XPGR melt detection algorithm has been adapted to better incorporate atmospheric variability over the ice sheet and an updated melt trend for the 1988–2003 period has been calculated. Compared to the original algorithm, the melt zone area increase is eight times higher (from 0.2 to 1.7% year−1). The increase is higher with the improved XPGR technique because rainfall also increased during this period. It is correlated to higher atmospheric temperatures. Finally, the model shows that the total ice sheet runoff is directly proportional to the melt extent surface detected by satellites. These results are important for the understanding of the effect of Greenland melting on the stability of the thermohaline circulation.  相似文献   

13.
Tom Agnew 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):259-280
Abstract

This study looks at simultaneous changes in atmospheric circulation and extremes in sea‐ice cover during winter. Thirty‐six years of ice‐cover data and 100‐kPa height and 50–100‐kPa thickness data are used. For the entire Arctic, the study found a general weakening of the Aleutian and Icelandic lows for heavy (i.e. severe) compared with light sea‐ice conditions suggesting reduced surface heating as a possible cause. The weakening of the two lows would also reduce meridional atmospheric circulation and poleward heat transport into the Arctic. The study also looks at three regions of high sea ice and atmospheric variability: the Bering Sea, the Davis Strait/Labrador Sea and the Greenland Sea. For the Bering Sea, heavy sea‐ice conditions were accompanied by weakening and westward displacement of the Aleutian Low again suggesting reduced surface heating and the formation of a secondary low in the Gulf of Alaska. This change in circulation is consistent with increased cold air advection over the Bering Sea and changes in storm tracks and meridional heat transport found in other studies. For the Davis Strait/Labrador Sea, heavy ice‐cover winters were accompanied by intensification of the Icelandic Low suggesting atmospheric temperature and wind advection and associated changes in ocean currents as the main cause of heavy ice. For the Greenland Sea no statistically significant difference was found. It is felt that this may be due to the important role that ice export through Fram Strait and ocean currents play in determining ice extent in this region.  相似文献   

14.
 The LMDz variable grid GCM was used to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ky Bp.) climate of Greenland and Antarctica at a spatial resolution of about 100 km.The high spatial resolution allows to investigate the spatial variability of surface climate change signals, and thus to address the question whether the sparse ice core data can be viewed as representative for the regional scale climate change. This study addresses primarily surface climate parameters because these can be checked against the, limited, ice core record. The changes are generally stronger for Greenland than for Antarctica, as the imposed changes of the forcing boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperatures) are more important in the vicinity of Greenland. Over Greenland, and to a limited extent also in Antarctica, the climate shows stronger changes in winter than in summer. The model suggests that the linear relationship between the surface temperature and inversion strength is modified during the LGM. The temperature dependency of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere alone cannot explain the strong reduction in snowfall over central Greenland; atmospheric circulation changes also play a crucial role. Changes in the high frequency variability of snowfall, atmospheric pressure and temperature are investigated and possible consequences for the interpretation of ice core records are discussed. Using an objective cyclone tracking scheme, the importance of changes of the atmospheric dynamics off the coasts of the ice sheets, especially for the high frequency variability of surface climate parameters, is illustrated. The importance of the choice of the LGM ice sheet topography is illustrated for Greenland, where two different topographies have been used, yielding results that differ quite strongly in certain nontrivial respects. This means that the paleo-topography is a significant source of uncertainty for the modelled paleoclimate. The sensitivity of the Greenland LGM climate to the prescribed sea surface conditions is examined by using two different LGM North Atlantic data sets. Received: 23 October 1997 / Accepted: 17 March 1998  相似文献   

15.
The Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 with the MM5 meteorological model has been employed to estimate the dust emission, dust concentration, and wet and dry deposition of dust in the Asian region for the month of March in 2010. It is found that the model simulates quite reasonably the dust (PM10) concentrations both in the dust source region and the downstream region of Korea. The starting and ending times of most dust events and their peak concentration occurrence times are well simulated. The monthly mean maximum surface dust concentration (PM10) is found to be 267???g?m?3 in the domain of central northern China (CNC). Monthly total maximum dust emission of more than 32?t km?2 and that of deposition of more than 25.4?t km?2 (dry deposition of 24?t km?2 and wet deposition of 1.4?t km?2) are found to occur in the domain CNC, whereas the monthly mean minimum surface dust concentration (PM10) is found to be 0.2???g?m?3 in the domain of the Tibetan Plateau, where the monthly total dust emission (4?kg?km?2) and the monthly total dust deposition (9?kg?km?2) are found to be minimum. This monthly total dust deposition of 9?kg?km?2 (dry deposition of 7?kg?km?2 and wet deposition of 2?kg?km?2) is as large as 2.25 times of that of emission (4?kg?km?2), suggesting net dust influx toward the Tibetan Plateau from the surrounding dust source regions. It is also found that the ratio of the total dust deposition to the total dust emission in the source region increases toward the downstream direction from 0.4 in the upstream source region of Taklimakan to 0.80 in the downstream source region of northeastern China. More than 90% of the total dust deposition is found to be contributed by dry deposition due to the lack of precipitation in the dust source region. The monthly mean dust concentration (PM10) is found to decrease with distance away from the dust source region. The monthly mean dust concentration of 62???g?m?3 over the Yellow Sea (YES) decreases to 4.3???g?m?3 over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean (NWP). The monthly total dust deposition in the downstream region is also found to decrease away from the source region from 2.33?t km?2 (dry deposition of 1.36?t km?2 and wet deposition of 0.97?t km?2) over the domain YES to 1.45?t km?2 (dry deposition of 0.16?t km?2 and wet deposition of 1.30?t km?2) over the domain NWP. A large amount of the total dust deposition over the seas is contributed by wet deposition (more than 90%), causing a small decreasing rate of the total dust deposition with distance from the source region. The estimated dust deposition could adversely impact the eco-environmental system significantly in the downstream regions of the Asian dust source region, especially over the seas.  相似文献   

16.
Qinghai Lake, China, is located near the northern limit of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and thus is an ideal region for studies of past monsoonal changes. However, isotope records from this region reflect the combined effects of multiple climatic factors, and make climatic interpretations difficult. The authors use multi-proxy records, generated from the same sediment core from Qinghai Lake, to disentangle these multiple effects in isotope records and to infer EASM variability during the late Holocene. Records of leaf wax （C2s） δD, lake carbonate 5180 and the Dunde ice core δ18O all indicate a millennial-scale depletion of mean isotopic values at -1500-1250 years before present. Compared with independent lake temperature and salinity records, the authors suggest that this depletion of long-term mean isotopic values must have resulted from changes in moisture sources in this region. In contrast, the authors attribute high-frequency （centennial timescale） C2s δD and ice core δ18O variability dominantly to a temperature effect. The multiproxy records provide a coherent picture in that many aspects of this regional climate （temperature, dryness, and moisture source） are strongly linked to the EASM variability.  相似文献   

17.
Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per ~50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating (±33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum (Σ) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over ~5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference (Δ) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle–lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150–500 year power spectrum of the composite (Σ) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular internal oscillations probably related to the southern ocean-climatic system. On the other hand, the Δ dust composite parameter suggests a persistent atmospheric dipole over East Antarctica delivering coarser (finer) dust particles alternatively to Vostok and Dome C regions with a bi-centennial periodicity. Indeed, a seesaw phenomenon in dust size distribution was already observed at three East Antarctic sites during the last deglaciation (Delmonte et al. 2004b) and was interpreted as a progressive reduction of the eccentricity of the polar vortex with respect to the geographic south pole. Interestingly, the Δ parameter shows a pronounced 200-year oscillation mode, throwing new light on the unresolved question of a possible relationship between climate and solar activity.  相似文献   

18.
The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.  相似文献   

19.
This paper investigates the possible implications for the earth-system of a melting of the Greenland ice-sheet. Such a melting is a possible result of increased high latitude temperatures due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), we investigate the effects of the removal of the ice sheet on atmospheric temperatures, circulation, and precipitation. We find that locally over Greenland, there is a warming associated directly with the altitude change in winter, and the altitude and albedo change in summer. Outside of Greenland, the largest signal is a cooling over the Barents sea in winter. We attribute this cooling to a decrease in poleward heat transport in the region due to changes to the time mean circulation and eddies, and interaction with sea-ice. The simulated climate is used to force a vegetation model and an ice-sheet model. We find that the Greenland climate in the absence of an ice sheet supports the growth of trees in southern Greenland, and grass in central Greenland. We find that the ice sheet is likely to regrow following a melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the subsequent rebound of its bedrock, and a return to present day atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This regrowth is due to the high altitude bedrock in eastern Greenland which allows the growth of glaciers which develop into an ice sheet.  相似文献   

20.
Ice-free glacial northern Asia due to dust deposition on snow   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), no large ice sheets were present in northern Asia, while northern Europe and North America (except Alaska) were heavily glaciated. We use a general circulation model with high regional resolution and a new parameterization of snow albedo to show that the ice-free conditions in northern Asia during the LGM are favoured by strong glacial dust deposition on the seasonal snow cover. Our climate model simulations indicate that mineral dust deposition on the snow surface leads to low snow albedo during the melt season. This, in turn, caused enhanced snow melt and therefore favoured snow-free peak summer conditions over almost the entire Asian continent during the LGM, whereas perennial snow cover is simulated over a large part of eastern Siberia when glacial dust deposition is not taken into account.  相似文献   

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