共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 390 毫秒
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北京地区突发性地质灾害易发区划及危险度评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文在认真分析北京地区地质环境的主要特征及地质灾害发育现状基础上,对泥石流、采空塌陷以及崩滑塌等突发性灾害的发育特征、分布规律及其主要影响因素进行了深入地分析、研究和探讨。采用袭扰系数法,对区内突发性地质灾害的易发程度进行了综合评价预测,圈定出突发性地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区。采用模糊综合评判模型,对影响地质灾害演变趋势的降雨条件、人类工程活动、地震活动以及区域岩组结构等因素进行了综合评判,并依据突发性地质灾害的易发区划结果及其主要影响因素的综合评判结果,对其演变的危险程度进行了评价,将北京地区划分出突发性地质灾害高风险区、中风险区以及低风险区。这对政府相关部门制定减灾防灾、资源开发、环境整治、经济建设和社会发展等规划具有一定的参考作用。 相似文献
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玉树7.1级地震不仅造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,还造成岩体松动,并引发了大量崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害。通过监测获取了崩滑体变形信息,掌握了崩滑体演变过程和泥石流危险信息,为地质灾害分析评价、预测预报及工程治理等提供可靠的资料和科学依据。 相似文献
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2001～2007年北京地区地磁变化分析与地震预测研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
2001～2007年北京地区地磁测量工作,取得了大量可靠的资料。应用这些资料,分析了2001～2007年北京地区地磁变化,研究了震磁前兆信息,获得了有意义的震磁前兆,在北京地区的地震监测预报工作中具有积极作用,产生了一定实效。 相似文献
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降雨型滑坡时空预报新方法 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
地质条件和降雨是引起重庆地区山体滑坡的两个最主要条件. 文中在分析降雨型滑坡形成条件的基础上, 提出了将地质条件和降雨因素进行分级叠合的降雨型滑坡时空预报新方法. 首先, 利用多因素相互作用关系矩阵, 对某个地区或者某个边坡所在位置的地质条件进行半定量的评价和分级. 然后, 根据日最大降雨量和降雨过程的总降雨量, 对该地区降雨的严重程度进行分级. 最后将“地质条件影响因子”和“降雨影响因子”进行分级叠合, 得到了“滑坡易滑程度判别因子”, 并据此将滑坡按照其易滑度分为滑坡极易发生、滑坡易发生、滑坡不易发生和滑坡基本不发生4级. 通过对某个地区的一些危险边坡进行地质勘察, 结合比较准确的天气预报, 可以对该地区的降雨型滑坡进行较为准确的时空预测预报. 以鸡扒子滑坡为例, 验证了利用“双因素”分级叠合方法进行降雨型滑坡时空预报的可靠性和可行性. 相似文献
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本文提出了一种预报地震的模糊数学方法。该方法包括:(1)从特征因素和预报指标二个论域进行多相模糊统计;(2)对所得的隶属函数进行直积运算,并用条件概率公式建立模糊关系矩阵;(3)通过模糊变换和最大隶属优势准则得出预报意见。对云南地区近期地震活动的预报试验表明,该方法是可行的。 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学》2016,(1)
局地强降水可以引发山洪、泥石流等次生灾害,目前准确预报局地强降水依然是天气预报业务的难点.本文针对一次发生在西北太平洋副热带高压边缘、导致12人死亡的极端局地强降水事件,利用集合卡尔曼滤波(En KF)开展多普勒雷达径向风观测资料同化试验,并对En KF同化过程不确定性进行分析.结果表明:不同化观测资料,采用单一初值的确定性预报或增加初值扰动、采用多物理过程的集合预报均不能正确预报强降水发生位置,而利用En KF同化雷达径向速度观测资料能有效改进确定性和集合预报效果,特别是强降水位置预报.通过En KF同化雷达资料,建立深厚的中尺度对流系统是改进降水预报效果的直接原因.在具备了对流发生条件的大尺度环境背景场中,上游地区、对流层中下层经向风和水汽场的合理扰动是影响同化过程和降水预报的关键因素.该个例预报过程受实际可预报性影响,具有不确定性,大尺度初始条件的差异或初始扰动场振幅偏小导致的En KF分析场差异都会对模拟结果造成较大影响,而采用En KF循环同化有助于提高该个例的预报准确性.敏感性试验还表明未来通过改进数值模式或改善观测系统,提供更准确观测信息,可以对此类短时强降水事件做出更准确预报. 相似文献
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四川九龙县地质灾害易发程度分区方法及评价 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
四川九龙县地质灾害众多,灾害类型主要以滑坡、崩塌、泥石流为主.在实地调查的基础上,结合GIS空间分析原理,对九龙县地质灾害易发程度按照地质环境条件差异、地质灾害形成主导因素、乡镇级行政区相对完整、综合分析定量化并参照遥感详细解译结果进行分区,并根据地质灾害易发程度的不同,对九龙县地质灾害做出了详细的分区及评价. 相似文献
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循化县南山一带共发育了17条泥石流沟,严重影响了县城内人民生命财产的安全。南山泥石流群物源丰富,沟道纵坡降大,因此只要有足够的降雨就可以形成泥石流。在对循化泥石流群灾害特征分析的基础上,针对各泥石流沟不同的地质环境条件提出了相应的防治对策。 相似文献
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PANG Bingdong Assoc. Prof Dept. Of Basic Sciences Beijing Insitute of Meteorology Beijing China 《国际泥沙研究》1997,(3)
LINTRODUCTIONDisastersofdebrisflotvoccurfrequentlyinChina.Mostofthemareinrainstormtype.TherainStormdebrisflowiscausedbyStormrainfallthatinducesastrongStreamflowsonloosematerialsinwatershed.Theeffectsofprecipitationonthedebrisflowareasfollows(ChengduResearchInstituteC;DisasterandEnvironment,1989)f(l)Precipitationacceleratesthematerialsofloosedebristogather,(2)PrecipitationsuPPlywatercomponentofdebrisflow,(3)Precipitationprovidesdynamicconditionsfordebrisflow,(4)Precipitationisatrigg… 相似文献
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１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＢａｓｅｄｏｎｔｈｅｍｏｕｎｔａｉｎｓｔｒｅａｍｃｌａｓｉｆｉｃａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｈａｚａｒｄｚｏｎｅｍａｐｐｉｎｇ（Ｗａｎｇｅｔａｌ,１９９６;ａｎｄＷａｎｇｅｔａｌ,１９９８）,ａｓｗｅｌａｓｔｈｅｉｎｖｅｓｔｉｇａｔｉｏ... 相似文献
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Debris flows in the mountainous regions south west of Beijing, China occur frequently and often result in considerable mass movements with disastrous consequences for human life, infrastructure and agriculture. Obtaining chronological information on such events is important for the prediction of the return frequency of these debris flows, risk assessment and climate change research. In this project, we use quartz single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) methods to determine the burial ages of five debris flow samples from the Zhai Tang region ∼60 km west of Beijing. OSL characteristics were found to be acceptable despite the low inherent brightness of quartz extracted from these samples. Single-grain thermal transfer was determined to be negligible and beta dose recovery experiments were satisfactory. The quartz single-grain dose distributions strongly indicate that the samples were poorly bleached prior to deposition; relative over-dispersions are larger than 60%. Minimum age modelling indicates that all five samples were deposited within the past few hundred years, indicating that catastrophic debris flows are occurring under the historically-recent land-use pattern. 相似文献
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为探索城市建设对局地及周边大气环境的影响,本文采用典型代表性天气条件,以北京主城区及其东部发展带小城镇群的发展变化为例,设计算例进行数值模拟.分析结果表明：城镇群建设发展通过地气的相互作用对局地环境产生显著影响,在本文选择的夏日晴好天气条件下,就1980～2004年城市区域布局状况,模拟域内北京城市用地增加19%,城市区域平均气温增加1.91℃,植被覆盖率减少20%,城市区域平均比湿减少3.3 g·kg-1,并且城市发展的格局规模不同,对城市气象环境的影响程度也不同. 此外,由于地气多因子的相互影响和反馈作用,城建规模的变化对周边的环境也存在显著的影响,城建规模越大,对周边的影响越大．例如, (1) 北京主城区的存在对周边小城镇午间14:00近地面温度影响最大可达到1.2℃,混合层高度可增高150 m左右; (2) 城市建设在影响周边气象环境的同时,也改变了城市污染物的输送扩散能力,北京主城区的存在使周边小城镇PM10的允许排放总量减小18.02 t·d-1,同时,随着周边小城镇城市规模的扩大,影响主城区PM10逐渐由净的输出转变为净的收入,小城镇群的存在对主城区PM10净收支的贡献率达到0.192 t·d-1. 相似文献
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The debris deposits at the bottom of very steep natural channels and streams in high mountain areas can be mobilized by runoff, triggering a water–sediment mixture flow known as debris flow. The routing of debris flow through human settlements can cause damage to civil structures and loss of human lives. The prediction of such an event, or the runoff discharge that triggers it, assumes an interest in risk analyses and the planning of defence measures. The object of this study is to find a method to determine the critical runoff value that triggers debris flow as a result of channel‐bed failure. Historical and rainfall data on 30 debris flows that occurred in six watersheds of the Dolomites (north‐eastern Italian Alps) were collected from different sources. Field investigations at the six sites, together with the hydrologic response to the rainfalls that triggered the events, were performed to obtain a realistic scenario of the formation of the debris flow there occurred. Field observations include a survey along the channel of the triggering reach of debris flow, with measurements of the channel slope and cross‐section and sampling of debris deposits for grain size distribution. Simulated runoff discharge values based on the rainfall recorded by pluviometers were then compared with values obtained through experimental criteria on the initiation and formation of debris flow by bed failure. The results are discussed to provide a plausible physical‐based method for the prediction of the triggering of debris flow by channel‐bed failure. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Glaciological controls on debris cover formation are investigated from the perspective of primary dispersal of supraglacial debris across a melting ice surface. This involves the migration of angled debris septa outcrops across a melting, thinning glacier ablation zone. Three measures of a glacier's ability to evacuate supraglacial debris are outlined: (1) a concentration factor describing the focusing of englacial debris into specific supraglacial mass loads; (2) the rate of migration of a septum outcrop relative to the local ice surface; and (3) a downstream velocity differential between a slower septum outcrop and the faster ice surface velocity. Measures (1) and (2) are inversely related, while measure (3) increases down‐glacier to explain why slow‐moving, thinning ice rapidly becomes debris covered. Data from Glacier d'Estelette (Italian Alps) are used to illustrate these processes, and to explore the potential for debris cover formation and growth in different glaciological environments. The transition from a ‘clean’, transport‐dominated to a debris‐covered ablation‐dominated glacier is explained by the melting out of more closely‐spaced debris septa, in combination with the geometric interactions of angled septa and ice surface in a field of reducing flow and increasing ablation. The growth and shrinkage of debris covers are most sensitive to glaciological changes at glaciers with gently‐dipping debris‐bearing foliation, but less sensitive at high‐compression glaciers whose termini are constrained by moraine dams and other forms of obstruction. These findings show that a variety of debris‐covered glacier types will show a spectrum of response characteristics to negative mass balance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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为了给规划中的北京市某新区提供基础地质资料,需查明区内断裂的准确位置、产状以及覆盖层厚度.利用CSAMT方法进行了勘察工作,由于区内人文干扰和电磁干扰严重,野外施工时采用了多种手段以保证观测数据的可信度;数据处理时利用作者开发的基于遗传算法的CSAMT全资料反演程序对野外数据进行反演.分析反演结果并结合已知地质资料,给出了区内断裂的准确位置等信息.为新区规划提供了可靠的基础资料. 相似文献