共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》1990,125(1):143-155
Precursor prediction techniques have generally performed well in predicting the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycles, based on cycles 10–21. Single variate methods based on minimum sunspot amplitude have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 9 out of 12 times, where a reliable prediction is defined as one having an observed maximum amplitude within the prediction interval (determined from the average error). On the other hand, single variate methods based on the size of the geomagnetic minimum have reliably predicted the size of the sunspot cycle 8 of 10 times (geomagnetic data are only available since about cycle 12). Bivariate prediction methods have, thus far, performed flawlessly, giving reliable predictions 10 out of 10 times (bivariate methods are based on sunspot and geomagnetic data). For cycle 22, single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) suggest a maximum amplitude of about 170 ± 25, while bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude of about 140 ± 15; thus, both techniques suggest that cycle 22 will be of smaller maximum amplitude than that observed during cycle 19, and possibly even smaller than that observed for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it is a + 2.6 cycle (maximum amplitude about 225). It appears then that either cycle 22 will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques (i.e., cycle 22 is an anomaly, a statistical outlier) or the deviation of cycle 22 relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months. Because cycle 22 is a large amplitude cycle, maximum smoothed sunspot number is expected to occur early in 1990 (between December 1989 and May 1990). 相似文献
2.
An Estimate for the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2013,282(1):87-90
For the sunspot cycles in the modern era (cycle?10 to the present), the ratio of R Z(max)/R Z(36th month) equals 1.26±0.22, where R Z(max) is the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle?using smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and R Z(36th month) is the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number 36 months after cycle?minimum. For the current sunspot cycle?24, the 36th month following the cycle?minimum occurred in November 2011, measuring?61.1. Hence, cycle?24 likely will have a maximum amplitude of about 77.0±13.4 (the one-sigma prediction interval), a value well below the average R Z(max) for the modern era sunspot cycles (about 119.7±39.5). 相似文献
3.
The latitudinal distribution of sunspot groups over a solar cycle is investigated. Although individual sunspot groups of a solar cycle emerge randomly at any middle and low latitude, the whole latitudinal distribution of sunspot groups of the cycle is not stochastic and, in fact, can be represented by a probability density function of the distribution having maximum probability at about 15.5°. The maximum amplitude of a solar cycle is found to be positively correlated against the number of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°) over the cycle, as well as the mean latitude. Also, the relation between the asymmetry of sunspot groups and its latitude is investigated, and a pattern of the N-S asymmetry in solar activity is suggested. 相似文献
4.
An improved correlation between maximum sunspot number (SSNM) and the preceding minimum (SSNm) is reported when the monthly mean sunspot numbers are smoothed with a 13-month running window. This relation allows prediction of the amplitude of a sunspot cycle by making use of the sunspot data alone. The estimated smoothed maximum sunspot number (126±26) and time of maximum epoch (second half of 2000) of cycle 23 are in good agreement with the predictions made by some of the precursor methods. 相似文献
5.
Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》1990,127(1):199-205
Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the average rate of growth in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, one infers that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 ± 30 or 185 ± 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10–21 from the two fits. 相似文献
6.
Li Kejun Gu Xiaoma Xiang Fuyuan Liu Xiaohua Chen Xuekun 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,317(4):897-901
Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle. 相似文献
7.
Statistical behavior of sunspot groups on the solar disk 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In the present study we have produced a diagram of the latitude distribution of sunspot groups from the year 1874 through 1999 and examined statistical characteristics of the mean latitude of sunspot groups. The reliability of the observed data set prior to solar cycle 19 is found quite low as compared with that of the data set observed after cycle 19. A correlation is found between maximum latitude at which first sunspot groups of a new cycle appear and the maximum solar activity of the cycle. It is inferred that solar magnetic activity during the early part of an extended solar cycle may contain some information about the strength of forthcoming solar cycle. A formula is given to describe latitude change of sunspot groups with time during an extended solar cycle. The latitude-migration velocity is found to be largest at the beginning of solar cycle and decreases with time as the cycle progresses with a mean migration velocity of about 1.61° per year. 相似文献
8.
Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, the discoverer of the sunspot cycle, observed the Sun routinely from Dessau, Germany during the interval
of 1826–1868, averaging about 290 observing days per year. His yearly counts of ‘clusters of spots’ (or, more correctly, the
yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) provided a simple means for describing the overt features of the sunspot
cycle (i.e., the timing and relative strengths of cycle minimum and maximum). In 1848, Rudolf Wolf, a Swiss astronomer, having
become aware of Schwabe's discovery, introduced his now familiar ‘relative sunspot number’ and established an international
cadre of observers for monitoring the future behavior of the sunspot cycle and for reconstructing its past behavior (backwards
in time to 1818, based on daily sunspot number estimates). While Wolf's reconstruction is complete (without gaps) only from
1849 (hence, the beginning of the modern era), the immediately preceding interval of 1818–1848 is incomplete, being based
on an average of 260 observing days per year. In this investigation, Wolf's reconstructed record of annual sunspot number
is compared against Schwabe's actual observing record of yearly counts of clusters of spots. The comparison suggests that
Wolf may have misplaced (by about 1–2 yr) and underestimated (by about 16 units of sunspot number) the maximum amplitude for
cycle 7. If true, then, cycle 7's ascent and descent durations should measure about 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years,
respectively, the extremes of the distributions, and its maximum amplitude should measure about 86 instead of 70. This study
also indicates that cycle 9's maximum amplitude is more reliably determined than cycle 8's and that both appear to be of comparable
size (about 130 units of sunspot number) rather than being significantly different. Therefore, caution is urged against the
indiscriminate use of the pre-modern era sunspot numbers in long-term studies of the sunspot cycle, since such use may lead
to specious results. 相似文献
9.
1 ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＴｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅｉｓｕｓｕａｌｌｙｄｅｓｃｒｉｂｅｄｗｉｔｈｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓ.Ａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｏｆｈｉｓ ｔｏｒｉｃａｌｄａｔａｏｎｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｖｅｓｕｎｓｐｏｔｎｕｍｂｅｒｓｈａｖｅｒｅｖｅａｌｅｄａｗｅａｌｔｈｏｆｉｎｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅｓｏｌａｒａｃｔｉｖｅｃｙｃｌｅ (ＨｏｎｇＱｉｎｆａｎｇ 1 990 ,1 994;ＺｈｏｎｇＳｈｕｈｕａ 1 991 ,1 995 ) .Ｔｈｅｓｏ ｃａｌｌｅｄ 1 1 ｙｅａｒｐｅ ｒｉｏ… 相似文献
10.
Jean-Guillaume Richard 《Solar physics》2004,223(1-2):319-333
The shape of the Sun’s secular activity cycle is found to be a saw-tooth curve. The additional Schwabe cycle 4′ (1793–1799) suggested by Usoskin, Mursula, and Kovaltsov (2001a) is taken into account in the telescopic sunspot record (1610–2001). Instead of a symmetrical Gleissberg cycle, a saw-tooth of exactly eight Schwabe sunspot maxima (‘Pulsation’) is found. On average, the last sunspot maximum of an eight-Schwabe-cycle saw-tooth pulsation has been about three times as high as its first maximum. The Maunder Minimum remains an exception to this pattern. The Pulsation is defined as a secular-scale envelope of Schwabe-cycle maxima, whereas the Gleissberg cycle is a result of long-term smoothing of the sunspot series. 相似文献
11.
Jean-Guillaume Richard 《Solar physics》2004,223(1):319-333
The shape of the Sun’s secular activity cycle is found to be a saw-tooth curve. The additional Schwabe cycle 4′ (1793–1799) suggested by Usoskin, Mursula, and Kovaltsov (2001a) is taken into account in the telescopic sunspot record (1610–2001). Instead of a symmetrical Gleissberg cycle, a saw-tooth of exactly eight Schwabe sunspot maxima (‘Pulsation’) is found. On average, the last sunspot maximum of an eight-Schwabe-cycle saw-tooth pulsation has been about three times as high as its first maximum. The Maunder Minimum remains an exception to this pattern. The Pulsation is defined as a secular-scale envelope of Schwabe-cycle maxima, whereas the Gleissberg cycle is a result of long-term smoothing of the sunspot series. 相似文献
12.
What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity
over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio
flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic
rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar
activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot
record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric
with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude
cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres
remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active
latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift
toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant
secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak
evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics
indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following
cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023. 相似文献
13.
Search for relationship between duration of the extended solar cycles and amplitude of sunspot cycle
A.G. Tlatov 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2007,328(10):1027-1029
Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the minimum of the cycle n + 2. The connection between cycle duration and its amplitude is established. Duration of the “latent” period of evolution of extended cycle between reversals and a minimum of the current sunspot cycle is entered. It is shown, that the latent period of cycles evolution is connected with the next sunspot cycle amplitude and can be used for the prognosis of a level and time of a sunspot maximum. The 24th activity cycle prognosis is made. The found dependences correspond to transport dynamo model of generation of solar cyclicity, it is possible with various speed of meridional circulation. Long-term behavior of extended cycle's lengths and connection with change of a climate of the Earth is considered. (© 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
14.
Verdes P.F. Parodi M.A. Granitto P.M. Navone H.D. Piacentini R.D. Ceccatto H.A. 《Solar physics》2000,191(2):419-425
Two nonlinear methods are employed for the prediction of the maximum amplitude for solar cycle 23 and its declining behavior. First, a new heuristic method based on the second derivative of the (conveniently smoothed) sunspot data is proposed. The curvature of the smoothed sunspot data at cycle minimum appears to correlate (R 0.92) with the cycle's later-occurring maximum amplitude. Secondly, in order to predict the near-maximum and declining activity of solar cycle 23, a neural network analysis of the annual mean sunspot time series is also performed. The results of the present study are then compared with some other recent predictions. 相似文献
15.
Power spectral densities computed from low-latitude horizontal intensity of the Earth's magnetic field over two-year periods of declining phases of solar cycles 16 to 19 show a close relationship with the maximum relative sunspot number of the following solar cycles. The maximum sunspot number shows an exponential rise with the power density near 1/27 cd?1; maximum R z,however, increases linearly with power density near 1/14 cd?1. It is also shown that the rate of decline of sunspot number in a solar cycle is almost exactly related, linearly, to power spectral density for the preceding solar cycle. Power densities near 1/27 and 1/14 cd?1 in declining phase of solar cycle appear to be satisfactory indices for the maximum relative sunspot number of the following cycle and its rate of decline thereafter. 相似文献
16.
Spotless days (i.e., days when no sunspots are observed on the Sun) occur during the interval between the declining phase of the old sunspot
cycle and the rising phase of the new sunspot cycle, being greatest in number and of longest continuous length near a new
cycle minimum. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the longest spotless segment (LSS) and examine its statistical relation
to selected characteristic points in the sunspot time series (STS), such as the occurrences of first spotless day and sunspot
maximum. The analysis has revealed statistically significant relations that appear to be of predictive value. For example,
for Cycle 24 the last spotless day during its rising phase should be about August 2012 (± 9.1 months), the daily maximum sunspot
number should be about 227 (± 50; occurring about January 2014±9.5 months), and the maximum Gaussian smoothed sunspot number
should be about 87 (± 25; occurring about July 2014). Using the Gaussian-filtered values, slightly earlier dates of August
2011 and March 2013 are indicated for the last spotless day and sunspot maximum for Cycle 24, respectively. 相似文献
17.
In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the
temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12–22. We used the monthly averages of sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data.
Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a
cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4–4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A
good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5–10 years
of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly
sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas
at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable. 相似文献
18.
We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal. 相似文献
19.
Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》1995,158(1):197-204
Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. 相似文献
20.
The shape of the sunspot cycle 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The temporal behavior of a sunspot cycle, as described by the International sunspot numbers, can be represented by a simple
function with four parameters: starting time, amplitude, rise time, and asymmetry. Of these, the parameter that governs the
asymmetry between the rise to maximum and the fall to minimum is found to vary little from cycle to cycle and can be fixed
at a single value for all cycles. A close relationship is found between rise time and amplitude which allows for a representation
of each cycle by a function containing only two parameters: the starting time and the amplitude. These parameters are determined
for the previous 22 sunspot cycles and examined for any predictable behavior. A weak correlation is found between the amplitude
of a cycle and the length of the previous cycle. This allows for an estimate of the amplitude accurate to within about 30%
right at the start of the cycle. As the cycle progresses, the amplitude can be better determined to within 20% at 30 months
and to within 10% at 42 months into the cycle, thereby providing a good prediction both for the timing and size of sunspot
maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 7–12 years of the cycle.
The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. 相似文献