共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
《Geoforum》2017
In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy. 相似文献
2.
There has been increasing concern about the lack of involvement by social scientists and humanists in a global change program,
although many social scientists are already directly involved in various aspects of research on environmental change, and
their research interests are clearly central to a global change research agenda. Based on a historical review, the role of
social science disciplines as well as social science institutes in an emerging multidecadal global change program is discussed.
Both “plan of action” and “plan of inaction” are suggested to avoid potential pitfalls due to the rush development of a social
science program into the existing global climate change problem. 相似文献
3.
Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model. 相似文献
4.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2017,349(4):151-158
We study the evolution of a recently recognised global geographical feature, named aquaterra, enclosing those lands that in previous glacial cycles have been repeatedly exposed and flooded. So far, the geography of aquaterra has been studied as a first approximation neglecting the isostatic effects and assuming globally uniform (i.e. eustatic) sea-level variations. Focussing on the last deglaciation and considering both global and regional aspects, we show that isostatic effects related with mantle dynamics have indeed played a significant role in the evolution of aquaterra. Our analysis is based upon paleogeographic reconstructions in the framework of well-established Glacial Isostatic Adjustment theories. 相似文献
5.
6.
全球气候变暖研究中的不确定性 总被引：40，自引：0，他引：40
讨论了有关全球变暖研究中存在的一些不确定性 ,主要包括 3个方面 ,即资料方面的不确定性 ,气候变化机制方面的不确定性和预测方面的不确定性。城市热岛效应是资料中最大的误差来源 ,特别是一些最近几十年快速发展的城市 ,其热岛效应的误差没有很好地得到检查和排除。资料覆盖面也很不完善。地面观测温度在 1979— 1999年的趋势是 0 19℃ / 10a ,但覆盖全球的卫星观测资料(反映对流层低层到中层 )趋势只有 0 0 6℃ / 10a。北极地区的温度变化也没有设想的那样强烈。使用海表温度比使用海表气温得到的变暖估计值偏高。 1979年以来 ,用气温代替海温 ,趋势只有0 13℃ / 10a。海洋在气候变化中的作用需要更深入地研究。利用代用资料来估计全球温度的变化 ,带来的不确定性较大 ,特别是树木年轮 ,因为CO2 浓度的增加可以加速植物的生长 ,其年轮宽度并不一定主要反映与温度的关系。未来气候变化的预测有很大的不确定性 ,到 2 10 0年全球平均气温达+1 4℃～ +5 8℃的估计很可能偏高。 相似文献
7.
Stefan P. Ritz Thomas F. Stocker Jeffrey P. Severinghaus 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(25-26):3728-3741
Past global mean ocean temperature may be reconstructed from measurements of atmospheric noble gas concentrations in ice core bubbles. Assuming conservation of noble gases in the atmosphere-ocean system, the total concentration within the ocean mostly depends on solubility which itself is temperature dependent. Therefore, the colder the ocean, the more gas can be dissolved and the less remains in the atmosphere. Here, the characteristics of this novel paleoclimatic proxy are explored by implementing krypton, xenon, argon, and N2 into a reduced-complexity climate model. The relationship between noble gas concentrations and global mean ocean temperature is investigated and their sensitivities to changes in ocean volume, ocean salinity, sea-level pressure and geothermal heat flux are quantified. We conclude that atmospheric noble gas concentrations are suitable proxies of global mean ocean temperature. Changes in ocean volume need to be considered when reconstructing ocean temperatures from noble gases. Calibration curves are provided to translate ice-core measurements of krypton, xenon, and argon into a global mean ocean temperature change. Simulated noble gas-to-nitrogen ratios for the last glacial maximum are δKratm = ?1.10‰, δXeatm = ?3.25‰, and δAratm = ?0.29‰. The uncertainty of the krypton calibration curve due to uncertainties of the ocean saturation concentrations is estimated to be ±0.3 °C. An additional ±0.3 °C uncertainty must be added for the last deglaciation and up to ±0.4 °C for earlier transitions due to age-scale uncertainties in the sea-level reconstructions. Finally, the fingerprint of idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the atmospheric krypton-to-nitrogen ratio is presented. A δKratm change of up to 0.34‰ is simulated for a 2 kyr Dansgaard-Oeschger event, and a change of up to 0.48‰ is simulated for a 4 kyr event. 相似文献
8.
For the reliable assessment of past climate variability, quantitative reconstructions of seasonal temperatures are required. Currently, reconstructions of cold‐season temperatures are scarce, because most biological proxies are biased towards the growing season. Here we test the potential of chrysophyte stomatocysts (or simply ‘cysts’; siliceous resting stages of the golden‐brown algae) as a proxy for cold‐season temperature. Climate reconstructions based on biological proxies are commonly constructed using transfer functions derived from calibration in space. However, the performance of these reconstructions is rarely tested by direct comparison with meteorological data due to limitations of sample resolution or chronological control. We compare a cyst‐based near‐annual reconstruction of ‘date of spring mixing’ from the varved sediments of Lake Silvaplana (Swiss Alps) spanning AD 1870–2004 with climate variables from the same period measured at the lake shore. The high correlation between cyst‐based ‘date of spring mixing’ and cold‐season temperature demonstrates the ability of chrysophyte cysts to archive cold‐season temperature variability. Lake eutrophication, which was extensive during the last 50 years, had no obvious effect on the cyst‐based reconstruction. This study underlines the high potential of chrysophyte cysts as a quantitative proxy for cold‐season climate reconstructions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
叶缘分析法是一种利用现代植被木本双子叶植物全缘叶物种百分比与年均温的函数关系,定量重建化石植物群古年均温的方法。该方法在新生代植物群的古年均温定量重建研究中得到了广泛的应用。目前基于世界不同地区现代植被的研究表明,尽管全缘叶物种百分比与年均温存在很好的相关性,但其相关性具有地区差异性。本文旨在总结叶缘分析法的研究进展,并介绍基于中国植被建立的叶缘—年均温中国模型;同时,采用该模型重建了中国新生代不同时期植物群的古年均温,且与前人采用其它模型得到的年均温重建值相比较。结果表明,叶缘—年均温中国模型能够有效地重建中国新生代植物群的古年均温值。 相似文献
10.
Isabelle Larocque-Tobler Roberto Quinlan Monique M. Stewart Martin Grosjean 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(13-14):1770-1779
Chironomids (non-biting midges) can provide accurate climate reconstructions from the Late Glacial to the present. Until now, anoxic lakes have been avoided for temperature reconstructions since chironomid assemblages are sensitive to changes in oxygen concentrations in the hypolimnion. However, anoxic lakes may have varved sediments, providing the possibility for near-annual climate reconstructions. Here, we tested the applicability of two calibration methods to reconstruct mean July air temperatures from chironomid assemblages preserved in the sediments of the anoxic Seebergsee located in the northern Swiss Alps: a calibration-in-space approach and a calibration-in-time approach. The calibration-in-space approach (i.e. chironomid assemblages from surficial lake sediments (0–1 cm) calibrated against meteorological data) provided accurate inferences (i.e. similar temperature changes as measured at the closest meteorological station, and at regional stations) in the Seebergsee stratigraphy until anoxia increased in the lake. With the increase of anoxia, the chironomid-inferred temperatures were generally colder than measured temperatures. A calibration-in-time approach (i.e. calibration of chironomid assemblages in a time series against instrumental data from the closest meteorological station) provided accurate reconstructions (i.e. similar to the regional records) for the past 100 years, including the time period of inferred anoxia. However, its applicability should be further tested on longer temporal scales. 相似文献
11.
花粉植被化与全球古植被计划研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
花粉是全球陆地分布最广的古气候环境信息来源。以花粉为基本资料的重建全球古植被计划自１９９４年实施以来,经数百名国际学者包括我国在内的第四纪花粉学等领域的专家合格,在综合和重建晚第四纪植被和制图方面取得了重大进展。研究成果提出了６ｋａＢＰ和１８ｋａ ＢＰ两个时期的植被,在填补地理空白的基础上构成了全球规模古植被分布。 相似文献
12.
Sediment-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary lake levels provide direct evidence of hydrologic responses to climate change, but many studies only provide approximate lake-elevation curves. Here, we demonstrate a new method for producing quantitative time series of lake elevation based on the facies and elevations of multiple cores collected from a lake's margin. The approach determines the facies represented in each core using diagnostic data, such as sand content, and then compares the results across cores to determine the elevation of the littoral zone over time. By applying the approach computationally, decisions are made systematically and iteratively using different facies classification schemes to evaluate the associated uncertainty. After evaluating our assumptions using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we quantify past lake-elevation changes, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (ΔP−ET), and uncertainty in both at Lake of the Woods and Little Windy Hill Pond, Wyoming. The well-correlated (r = 0.802 ± 0.002) reconstructions indicate that water levels at both lakes fell at > 11,300, 8000–5500, and 4700–1600 cal yr BP when ΔP − ET decreased to − 50 to − 250 mm/yr. Differences between the reconstructions are typically small (10 ± 24 mm/yr since 7000 cal yr BP), and the similarity indicates that our reconstruction method can produce statistically comparable paleohydrologic datasets across networks of sites. 相似文献
13.
Geostatistical space–time models are used increasingly for addressing environmental problems, such as monitoring acid deposition or global warming, and forecasting precipitation or stream flow. Each discipline approaches the problem of joint space–time modeling from its own perspective, a fact leading to a significant amount of overlapping models and, possibly, confusion. This paper attempts an annotated survey of models proposed in the literature, stating contributions and pinpointing shortcomings. Stochastic models that extend spatial statistics (geostatistics) to include the additional time dimension are presented with a common notation to facilitate comparison. Two conceptual viewpoints are distinguished: (1) approaches involving a single spatiotemporal random function model, and (2) approaches involving vectors of space random functions or vectors of time series. Links between these two viewpoints are then revealed; advantages and shortcomings are highlighted. Inference from space–time data is revisited, and assessment of joint space–time uncertainty via stochastic imaging is suggested. 相似文献
14.
We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target. 相似文献
15.
Julie Dabkowski Nicole Limondin‐Lozouet Pierre Antoine Julian Andrews Alina Marca‐Bell Vincent Robert 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(8):790-799
Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 palaeoclimate has so far been documented in marine and ice sheet isotopic records. However, excepting some lacustrine pollen records, very little is known about palaeoclimatic conditions in continental areas. This study uses geochemical records in calcareous tufa deposits from rivers as a basis for reconstructing temperate palaeoclimatic conditions. Tufa deposits are now proven to record high‐quality palaeoclimatic information in recent to Holocene deposits. Work on older interglacial tufas is just starting and in this paper we present the first comprehensive results from a MIS 11 tufa. The tufa comes from the Seine Valley (La Celle, northern France). Geochemical data in the tufa calcite are interpreted to record primarily air temperature (δ18O) and humidity (δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca). The combined data identify a warm and wet climatic optimum followed by two temperature decreases associated with oscillations in humidity. These marked climatic variations recorded through the La Celle profile are strongly coherent with the palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from malacological data. The abrupt climatic and environmental events recorded could be related to short‐term degradation of vegetation cover in Europe, which is itself controlled by global palaeoclimatic events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Proxy-based sea-level reconstructions place the instrumentally observed rates of recent sea-level rise in a longer term context by providing data that extend the instrumental sea-level record into past centuries. This paper presents the first sea-level reconstructions based on analyses of testate amoebae, to test their ability to produce high-precision reconstructions of past sea level. We present two reconstructions for the past 100 yr from sites in Maine (USA) and Nova Scotia (Canada) based on short cores from salt marshes, and modern training data from North America and the United Kingdom. These are compared with tide-gauge records and reconstructions based on foraminifera from the same cores. The reconstructions show good agreement with both the tide-gauge data and the foraminifera-based reconstructions. The UK data perform well in predicting known elevations of North American surface samples and produce sea-level reconstructions very similar to those based on the North American data, suggesting the methodology is robust across large geographical areas. We conclude that testate amoebae have the potential to provide robust, higher precision sea-level reconstructions for the past few centuries if modern transfer functions are improved and core sites are located within the main zone of testate amoebae occurrence on the salt marsh. 相似文献
17.
SAMULI HELAMA ALAR LÄÄNELAID HANNA TIETÄVÄINEN MARC MACIAS FAURIA ILMO T. KUKKONEN JARI HOLOPAINEN JAN K. NIELSEN ILMARI VALOVIRTA 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2010,39(4):734-748
Helama, S., Läänelaid, A., Tietäväinen, H., Macias Fauria, M., Kukkonen, I. T., Holopainen, J., Nielsen, J. K. & Valovirta, I. 2010: Late Holocene climatic variability reconstructed from incremental data from pines and pearl mussels – a multi‐proxy comparison of air and subsurface temperatures. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 734–748. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00165.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Dendrochronological and sclerochronological records are mean series of arboreal and molluscan increments that are correctly aligned in time by rigorous dating. These records of tree rings and annual shell‐growth increments exhibit climate signals that can be used to reconstruct fluctuations and trends in past climates. Here we present a multi‐proxy reconstruction of temperature histories using a combination of dendrochronological and sclerochronological evidence. Regional curve standardization (RCS) was used to remove the non‐climatic variations from dendrochronological and sclerochronological series prior to palaeoclimatic interpretation. Conventional and signal‐free methods of RCS were compared. It was found that the signal‐free methods produced more reliable chronologies and systematically higher climate–proxy correlations. Consequently, the temperature reconstructions were derived using the chronologies constructed by this method. Proxy‐based histories of summer (July–August) temperatures were reconstructed from AD 1767 onwards. The compound use of proxies resulted in reconstructions that were of higher quality than single‐proxy reconstructions. Further improvement of reconstructions was accomplished by the inclusion of lagging increment values in the transfer functions. The final multi‐proxy model explained 58% of the temperature variance over the instrumental period. The multi‐proxy temperature reconstruction correlated well with the long records of instrumental temperatures from Tornedalen, St. Petersburg, Uppsala and Stockholm. Overall, the reconstruction for the past 250 years agreed reasonably well with borehole temperature reconstructions obtained in northern Finland. In general, this study demonstrates the benefits of the compound use of several proxies in reconstructing climate histories. In particular, the study emphasizes the so far largely unexploited advantages of multi‐proxy data sets obtained by rigorously cross‐dated incremental chronologies to produce more robust palaeoclimatic reconstructions. 相似文献
18.
Ruth M. K. Plets S. Louise Callard J. Andrew G. Cooper Joseph T. Kelley Daniel F. Belknap Robin J. Edwards Antony J. Long Rory J. Quinn Derek W. T. Jackson 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(4-5):285-298
The interplay of eustatic and isostatic factors causes complex relative sea‐level (RSL) histories, particularly in paraglacial settings. In this context the past record of RSL is important in understanding ice‐sheet history, earth rheology and resulting glacio‐isostatic adjustment. Field data to develop sea‐level reconstructions are often limited to shallow depths and uncertainty exists as to the veracity of modelled sea‐level curves. We use seismic stratigraphy, 39 vibrocores and 26 radiocarbon dates to investigate the deglacial history of Belfast Lough, Northern Ireland, and reconstruct past RSL. A typical sequence of till, glacimarine and Holocene sediments is preserved. Two sea‐level lowstands (both max. ?40 m) are recorded at c. 13.5 and 11.5k cal a bp . Each is followed by a rapid transgression and subsequent periods of RSL stability. The first transgression coincides temporally with a late stage of Meltwater Pulse 1a and the RSL stability occurred between c. 13.0 and c. 12.2k cal a bp (Younger Dryas). The second still/slowstand occurred between c. 10.3 and c. 11.5k cal a bp . Our data provide constraints on the direction and timing of RSL change during deglaciation. Application of the Depth of Closure concept adds an error term to sea‐level reconstructions based on seismic stratigraphic reconstructions. 相似文献
19.
YU LIU HANS W. LINDERHOLM HUIMING SONG QIUFANG CAI QINHUA TIAN JUNYAN SUN DELIANG CHEN ELISABETH SIMELTON KRISTINA SEFTIGEN HUA TIAN RUIYUAN WANG GUANG BAO ZHISHENG AN 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2009,38(2):285-291
The Qinling Mountain range constitutes a critical boundary for climate and vegetation distribution in eastern central mainland China owing to its importance as a geographic demarcation line. In this article, cores from 88 Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis ) from the southern (MW site) and northern (NWT site) slopes of the Qinling Mountains were used to reconstruct seasonal temperature variations. During the calibration period, significant correlations were found between ring width and the mean temperature from prior September to current April of 0.76 at the southern slope, and between ring width and the mean May–July temperature of 0.67 at the northern slope. The subsequent temperature reconstructions span 1760–2005 for the northern site and 1837–2006 for the southern site. Prior to the mid-20th century, low September–April temperatures were, in general, followed by high May–July temperatures, probably reflecting variations in the winter and summer monsoon. However, since the mid-20th century, both records show trends of a more pronounced increase in September–April temperature on the southern slope. The results provide independent support for the interpretation that recent warming is unusual in nature, coinciding with the observed record. The results compare well with tree-ring based reconstructions from the surrounding regions, suggesting regional signals in the Qinling Mountain reconstructions. 相似文献
20.
《Applied Geochemistry》2002,17(7):855-883
Glacierised areas present an ideal environment in which to study water-rock interaction, since chemical weathering rates are high and anthropogenic impacts are often minimal. Detailed investigations of meltwater quality variations have suggested the importance of these environments in estimates of terrestrial chemical erosion and global biogeochemical cycles. Most notably, the role of meltwaters in CO2 sequestration during episodes of deglaciation has attracted considerable attention, since this may impact on climate at glacial-interglacial timescales. However, there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of CO2 drawdown by meltwaters which remains to be resolved. Water flow through glaciers exerts an important control on ice mass dynamics, and influences the quantity and quality of water delivered to environments downstream of glacierised basins. Thus, the study of the configuration and dynamics of subglacial drainage systems is important not only to enhance scientific understanding, but also to allow effective water resource utilisation in glacierised headwater catchments. Bulk meltwater quality characteristics draining terrestrial ice masses also offer the potential to provide unique information on hydrological and hydrochemical processes operating in the inaccessible subglacial environment. Here, significant advances have been made in understanding the controls on chemical weathering reactions, based on the identification of key dissolved indicator species. This has allowed water quality variations to be exploited as a tool for both subglacial hydrochemical and hydrological investigations. As a result, this area of glaciology has received considerable attention in recent years, utilising an increasing range of dissolved ions, and integrating field and laboratory studies. However, uncertainty still surrounds certain areas of meltwater quality science, including the role of microorganisms in a system which to date has largely been viewed as abiotic. A better understanding of the processes and rates of chemical weathering in glacierised environments has the potential to enhance our understanding of the environment, and to facilitate the exploitation of water quality variations for both scientific and applied objectives. In this paper the development and current state of meltwater quality science as a tool for investigating subglacial hydrology and geochemistry is detailed, and problems and future directions identified. This will hopefully stimulate wider interest in an important area of aquatic chemistry with significant applied implications. 相似文献