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1.
Although the potential use of biomarkers within environmental risk assessment (ERA) has long been recognised their routine use is less advanced compared with clinical human health risk assessment, where a number of familiar biomarkers (such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol) are in common usage. We have examined how biomarkers are incorporated into human health risk assessment and have identified several 'required elements'. These include identification of the (clinical) assessment endpoint at the outset, rational selection of the biomarker(s) (the measurement endpoint), biomarker 'validation' (e.g. QA/QC) and biomarker 'qualification' (evidence linking the measurement and assessment endpoints). We discuss these elements in detail and propose that their adoption will facilitate the routine use of biomarkers in environmental risk assessment. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the need for cooperation between those working with biomarkers within human and environmental risk assessment to exchange best practice between common disciplines for mutual advantage. 相似文献
2.
A method of urban ecological risk assessment: combining the multimedia fugacity model and GIS 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Hui Min Song Lin Yu Xu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(5):713-719
Industrial pollution has caused serious human health risk because the pollutants can be accumulated in human body via multi
routes in a long term, especially in areas of rapid industrialization. It is of great importance to obtain the pollutants’
information, including the transport routes and spatial distribution in the various environmental media of different sub-regions,
to facilitate more accurate risk assessment and more effective risk management in urban ecosystems. In this article, we proposed
a research framework of urban ecological risk assessment method, which combines the multimedia fugacity model, the multi-route
exposure model, exposure-risk relationships and geographic information system (GIS). An urban ecological risk assessment of
a hypothetical region indicates that it is possible and feasible to introduce GIS into the previous method to satisfy the
requirements of risk management. The assessment results can be further utilized for industrial pollution emission control. 相似文献
3.
Imran Maqsood Jianbing Li Guohe Huang Yuefei Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(2):146-157
Risk assessment of contaminated sites is crucial for quantifying adverse impacts on human health and the environment. It also provides effective decision support for remediation and management of such sites. This study presents an integrated approach for environmental and health risk assessment of subsurface contamination through the incorporation of a multiphase multicomponent modeling system within a general risk assessment framework. The method is applied to a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Three remediation scenarios with different efficiencies (0, 60, and 90%) and planning periods (10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 years later) are examined for each of the five potential land-use plans of the study site. Then three risky zones with different temporal and spatial distributions are identified based on the local environmental guidelines and the excess lifetime cancer risk criteria. The obtained results are useful for assessing potential human health effects when the groundwater is used for drinking water supply. They are also critical for evaluating environmental impacts when the groundwater is used for irrigation, stockbreeding, fish culture, or when the site remains the status quo. Moreover, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify risky zones with different risk levels under various remediation actions, planning periods, and land-use patterns. 相似文献
4.
Elcin Kentel Mustafa M. Aral 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(4):405-417
In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the
simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and
health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis,
to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment,
risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled
and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information
in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since
possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability
of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this
paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve
defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the
risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability
of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated
with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and
the results are discussed comparatively. 相似文献
5.
H.-W. Ma 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2002,16(6):464-478
There exist many sites with contaminated groundwater because of inappropriate handling or disposal of hazardous materials
or wastes. Health risk assessment is an important tool to evaluate the potential environmental and health impacts of these
contaminated sites. It is also becoming an important basis for determining whether risk reduction is needed and what actions
should be initiated. However, in research related to groundwater risk assessment and management, consideration of multimedia
risk assessment and the separation of the uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and the variability due to natural heterogeneity
are rare. This study presents a multimedia risk assessment framework with the integration of multimedia transfer and multi-pathway
exposure of groundwater contaminants, and investigates whether multimedia risk assessment and the separation of uncertainty
and variability can provide a better basis for risk management decisions. The results of the case study show that a decision
based on multimedia risk assessment may differ from one based on risk resulting from groundwater only. In particular, the
transfer from groundwater to air imposes a health threat to some degree. By using a methodology that combines Monte Carlo
simulation, a rank correlation coefficient, and an explicit decision criterion to identify information important to the decision,
the results obtained when uncertainty and variability are separate differ from the ones without such separation. In particular,
when higher percentiles of uncertainty and variability distributions are considered, the method separating uncertainty and
variability identifies TCE concentration as the single most important input parameter, while the method that does not distinguish
the two identifies four input parameters as the important information that would influence a decision on risk reduction. 相似文献
6.
An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for assessing health-impact risk from air pollution 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
Heng L. Li Guo H. Huang Yun Zou 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(6):789-803
High concentrations of air pollutants in the ambient environment can result in breathing problems with human communities.
Effective assessment of health-impact risk from air pollution is important for supporting decisions of the related detection,
prevention, and correction efforts. However, the quality of information available for environmental/health risk assessment
is often not satisfactory enough to be presented as deterministic numbers. Stochastic method is one of the methods for tackling
those uncertainties, by which uncertain information can be presented as probability distributions. However, if the uncertainties
can not be presented as probabilities, they can then be handled through fuzzy membership functions. In this study, an integrated
fuzzy-stochastic modeling (IFSM) approach is developed for assessing air pollution impacts towards asthma susceptibility.
This development is based on Monte Carlo simulation for the fate of SO2 in the ambient environment, examination of SO2 concentrations based on the simulation results, quantification of evaluation criteria using fuzzy membership functions, and
risk assessment based on the combined fuzzy-stochastic information. The IFSM entails (a) simulation for the fate of pollutants
in ambient environment, with the consideration of source/medium uncertainties, (b) formulation of fuzzy air quality management
criteria under uncertain human-exposure pathways, exposure dynamics, and SPG-response variations, and (c) integrated risk
assessment under complexities of the combined fuzzy/stochastic inputs of contamination level and health effect (i.e., asthma
susceptibility). The developed IFSM is applied to a study of regional air quality management. Reasonable results have been
generated, which are useful for evaluating health risks from air pollution. They also provide support for regional environmental
management and urban planning. 相似文献
7.
Incorporating the LCIA concept into fuzzy risk assessment as a tool for environmental impact assessment 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Kevin Fong-Rey Liu Chih-Yuan Ko Chihhao Fan Cheng-Wu Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(4):849-866
Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedural tool for environmental management that identifies, predicts, evaluates and mitigates the environmental impact of development proposals. In the process of EIA, EIA reports, prepared by developers, are expected to delineate the environmental impact, but in practice they usually determine whether the amounts or concentrations of pollutants comply with the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can improve the analysis of environmental impact in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA that takes account of the causal relationships between environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the concept of LCIA into an ERA as an integrated tool for the preparation of EIA reports extends the focus of the reports from the regulatory compliance of the environmental impact, to determine the significance of the environmental impact. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations, because of a lack of sufficient information; therefore, so ERA should be generalized to a fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Therefore, this paper proposes the integration of a LCIA and a FRA as an assessment tool for the preparation of EIA reports, whereby the LCIA clearly identifies the causal linkage for hazard–pathway–receptor–damage and then better explain the significance of the impact; furthermore, a FRA copes with fuzzy and probabilistic situations in the assessment of pollution severity and the estimation of exposure probability. Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in a case study of the expansion plan for the world’s largest plastics processing factory. 相似文献
8.
I. D. Benekos C. A. Shoemaker J. R. Stedinger 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(4):375-390
Groundwater contamination risk assessment for health-threatening compounds should benefit from a stochastic environmental
risk assessment which considers the effects of biological, chemical, human behavioral, and physiological processes that involve
elements of biotic and abiotic aquifer uncertainty, and human population variability. This paper couples a complex model of
chemical degradation and transformation with movement in an aquifer undergoing bioremediation to generate a health risk analysis
for different population cohorts in the community. A two-stage Monte Carlo simulation has separate stages for population variability
and aquifer uncertainty yielding a computationally efficient and conceptually attractive algorithm. A hypothetical example
illustrates how risk variance analysis can be conducted to determine the distribution of risk, and the relative impact of
uncertainty and variability in different sets of parameters upon the variation of risk values for adults, adolescents, and
children. The groundwater example considers a community water supply contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Biodegradation
pathways are enhanced by addition of butyrate. The results showed that the contribution of uncertainty to the risk variance
is comparable to that of variability. Among the uncertain parameters considered, transmissivity accounted for the major part
of the output variance. Children were the most susceptible and vulnerable population cohort. 相似文献
9.
Jige Shen Mazda Biglari ChangBo Jiang HongHai Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(8):1089-1096
As radioactive human doses are calculated through food chain and exposure pathways, it is important to take a pathway analysis
to determine all pathway contributions for further radiological environmental risk assessment. A challenge of contaminant
fate and environmental pathway analysis is to handle a large number of environmental components and to assign proper calculation
models to linked component pairs. This paper presents a model template called transfer pathway model template (TPMT) that
stores transfer models to environmental class pairs. When a site-specific calculation scenario is built, a source–receptor
transfer matrix (SRTM) is defined by the scenario. Then the calculation loops through all source–receptor component pairs
in SRTM and apply proper models stored in TPMT to calculate the transfer factors. TPMT can be used as the component pathway
verification template and model allocation template. This structure is used in an environmental risk assessment (ERA) application
called IMPACT that has been applied for a number of nuclear power plants and uranium mines in Canada. 相似文献
10.
人类活动和社会经济迅速发展导致大量化学品排放进入地表水环境,对水生生态系统和人类健康产生诸多不利影响,如何从众多的化学品中筛选识别出具有潜在危害的优先污染物是水污染治理和管控的关键.本研究基于污染物环境暴露水平、持久性、生物累积性、生态风险和人体健康风险5个评价参数,构建多指标综合评分法定量筛选识别地表水环境优先污染物类别,并应用于涨渡湖水体中优先污染物清单的建立.污染物环境暴露水平基于靶向分析综合考虑了污染物环境实测浓度和检出频率.目标污染物持久性和生物累积性毒害性参数分别采用生物降解系数和正辛醇-水分配系数来表征.此外在物种敏感度分布法和评估因子法的基础上计算生态风险熵以定量表征生态风险,人体健康风险则由终生致癌风险指数或危害指数来表征.基于该多指标综合评分法可于涨渡湖水体7类151种特征污染物中筛查出41种优先污染物,主要包括11种多氯联苯、8种有机氯农药、6种多环芳烃、4种邻苯二甲酸酯、4种挥发性有机物和8种金属元素.鉴于不同地表水环境污染状况不同,通过多指标综合评分法可建立因地制宜的优先污染物清单,从而有利于形成以保护水生生物和人类健康为最终目标的优先污染物水质基准,为地表水环境污染物管控及治理提供方法学支撑和科学依据. 相似文献
11.
Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution (RAMP) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
RAMP embraces the integrated use of methods for the rapid measurement, assessment and access to information on the nature, sources and influences of coastal environmental change. It embraces approaches held in the literature, research and programs of RAMP (Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution) and the emerging work described as RASE (Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators). To protect coastal ecosystems and the health of communities effectively, management infrastructure requires the tools and resources necessary to detect damage to coastal ecosystems and their components, identify causative agents, impose remedial action, and demonstrate that measures have been effective. Pragmatic monitoring and prediction capabilities must also be built to provide further confidence that human impacts are being minimized and that threats to human health have been contained. For most of the world, however, the ability to build such capability is a technical challenge and often cost prohibitive. These constraints point to the need to develop and expand the integrated use of simple, robust, cost-effective environmental assessment procedures. This paper suggests that a system built around the Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution (RAMP) and the Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators (RASE) can, should and in some cases already has been effective in meeting such informational and management needs. 相似文献
12.
《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(10-12):631-639
RAMP embraces the integrated use of methods for the rapid measurement, assessment and access to information on the nature, sources and influences of coastal environmental change. It embraces approaches held in the literature, research and programs of RAMP (Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution) and the emerging work described as RASE (Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators). To protect coastal ecosystems and the health of communities effectively, management infrastructure requires the tools and resources necessary to detect damage to coastal ecosystems and their components, identify causative agents, impose remedial action, and demonstrate that measures have been effective. Pragmatic monitoring and prediction capabilities must also be built to provide further confidence that human impacts are being minimized and that threats to human health have been contained. For most of the world, however, the ability to build such capability is a technical challenge and often cost prohibitive. These constraints point to the need to develop and expand the integrated use of simple, robust, cost-effective environmental assessment procedures. This paper suggests that a system built around the Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution (RAMP) and the Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators (RASE) can, should and in some cases already has been effective in meeting such informational and management needs. 相似文献
13.
New concepts in ecological risk assessment: where do we go from here? 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
Through the use of safety factors, the use of single-species test data has been adequate for use in protective hazard assessments and criteria setting but, because hazard quotients do not consider the presence of multiple species each with a particular sensitivity or the interactions that can occur between these species in a functioning community, they are ill-suited to environmental risk assessment. Significant functional redundancy occurs in most ecosystems but this is poorly considered in single-species tests conducted under laboratory conditions. A significant advance in effects assessment was the use of the microcosm as a unit within which to test interacting populations of organisms. The microcosm has allowed the measurement of the environmental effect measures such as the NOAEC(community) under laboratory or field conditions and the application of this and other similarly derived measures to ecological risk assessment (ERA). More recently, distributions of single-species laboratory test data have been used for criteria setting and, combined with distributions of exposure concentrations, for risk assessment. Distributions of species sensitivity values have been used in an a priori way for setting environmental quality criteria such as the final acute value (FAV) derived for water quality criteria. Similar distributional approaches have been combined with modeled or measured concentrations to produce estimates of the joint probability of a single species being affected or that a proportion of organisms in a community will be impacted in a posteriori risk assessments. These techniques have not been widely applied for risk assessment of dredged materials, however, with appropriate consideration of bioavailability and spatial and nature of the data these techniques can be applied to soils and sediments. 相似文献
14.
The ability to describe variables in a health risk model through probability theory enables us to estimate human health risk. These types of risk assessment are interpreted as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Generally, PRA requires specific estimate of the parameters of the probability density of the input variables. In all circumstances, such estimates of the parameters may not be available due to the lack of knowledge or information. Such types of variables are treated as uncertain variables. These types of information are often termed uncertainty which are interpreted through fuzzy theory. The ability to describe uncertainty through fuzzy set theory enables us to process both random variable and fuzzy variable in a single framework. The method of processing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties into a same framework is coined as hybrid method. In this paper, we are going to talk about such type of hybrid methodology for human health risk assessment. Risk assessment on human health through different pathways of exposure has been attempted many a times combining Monte Carlo analysis and extension principle of fuzzy set theory. The emergence of credibility theory enables transforming fuzzy variable into credibility distribution function which can be used in those hybrid analyses. Hence, an attempt, for the first time, has been made to combine probability theory and credibility theory to estimate risk in human health exposure. This method of risk assessment in the presence of credibility theory and probability theory is identified as probabilistic-credibility method (PCM). The results obtained are then interpreted through probability theory, unlike the other hybrid methodology where the results are interpreted in terms of possibility theory. The results obtained are then compared with probability-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA) method. Generally, decision under hybrid methodology is made on the index of optimism. An optimistic decision maker estimates from the \(\alpha\)-cut at 1, whereas a pessimistic decision maker estimates from the \(\alpha\)-cut at 0. The PCM is an optimistic approach as the decision is always made at \(\alpha\)=1. 相似文献
15.
Stochastic environmental risk analysis: an integrated methodology for predicting cancer risk from contaminated groundwater 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
R. M. Maxwell W. E. Kastenberg 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(1-2):27-47
Stochastic environmental risk assessment considers the effects of numerous biological, chemical, physical, behavioral and
physiological processes that involve elements of uncertainty and variability. A methodology for predicting health risks to
individuals from contaminated groundwater is presented that incorporates the elements of uncertainty and variability in geological
heterogeneity, physiological exposure parameters, and in cancer potency. An idealized groundwater basin is used to perform
a parametric sensitivity study to assess the relative impact of (a) geologic uncertainty, (b) behavioral and physiological
variability in human exposure and (c) uncertainty in cancer potency on the prediction of increased cancer risk to individuals
in a population exposed to contaminants in household water supplied from groundwater. A two-dimensional distribution (or surface)
of human health risk was generated as a result of the simulations. Cuts in this surface (fractiles of variability and percentiles
of uncertainty) are then used as a measure of relative importance of various model components on total uncertainty and variability.
A case study for perchloroethylene or PCE, shows that uncertainty and variability in hydraulic conductivity play an important
role in predicting human health risk that is on the same order of influence as uncertainty of cancer potency. 相似文献
16.
Regional environmental risk assessment for the Nanjing Chemical Industry Park: an analysis based on information-diffusion theory 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Xiaojie Meng Yan Zhang Xiangyi Yu Junhong Bai Yingying Chai Yating Li 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(8):2217-2233
A recent Chinese policy requires that all enterprises that store and use hazardous chemicals must become part of a chemical industry park. Although this reduces the environmental risk caused by the establishment of uncontrolled sites, it cannot eliminate the risk within the industrial park; on the contrary, it may exacerbate the risk. The storage and use of a wide range of hazardous chemicals in the industrial park increases both the complexity and the diversity of the environmental risk. Identification of the sources of risk will significantly affect the results of regional risk assessments. In this paper, we selected China’s Nanjing Chemical Industry Park as a case study. Based on an environmental risk assessment for every enterprise within the park, we calculated the maximum environmental risk values of each individual risk source and obtained the overall regional environmental risk values by using information-diffusion theory. The regional environmental risk value can be clustered according to the classification criteria described in this paper and depicted using a spatial partitioning map. The result can help administrative managers optimize the distribution of industrial areas and support the development of risk-prevention and -management measures. 相似文献
17.
18.
太湖鱼类产量、组成的变动规律及与环境的关系 总被引：30，自引：3，他引：27
湖泊生态系统健康包含两个方面的内涵:满足人类社会合理要求的能力和湖泊生态系统自我维持与更新的能力.获知湖泊生态系统健康状况及其区域分异特征,对于湖泊管理具有重要意义.本文基于对太湖的野外调查,计算了表征湖泊生态系统健康的系统能、系统能结构、生态缓冲容量和湖泊营养状态指数.聚类分析结果表明,太湖不同湖区生态系统健康状况存在一定差异,东部湖区较好,西部湖区较差,呈现由东南部湖区向西北部湖区递减的趋势.该结果对进一步研究湖泊生态系统健康评价指标阈值具有重要的参考意义. 相似文献
19.
Many genetic polymorphisms in metabolism enzymes are important for the risk of cancer as shown in a large number of case-control
studies. Cytochrome P-450 (CYP) 1A1 polymorphism is a widely mentioned for importance of its genetic polymorphisms in risk
assessment. However, the reports on the correlation between polymorphism and risk are inconsistent. To study the functional
aberration in the human wild and mutate types of CYP1A1 is hard. Here, the author used a new gene ontology technology to predict
the molecular function of human CYP1A1. Here, it can be seen that there is no functional difference between wild and mutate
types of CYP1A1. Therefore, there should be no difference in effect of wild and mutate types of CYP1A1. This can support the
null effect of this polymorphism in clinical findings of the population. This polymorphism might not be an important tool
for risk assessment. 相似文献
20.
Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA). Based on the form of available information, fuzzy set theory, probability theory, or a combination of both can be used to incorporate parameter uncertainty and variability into mechanistic risk assessment models. In this study, tap water concentration is used as the source of contamination in the human exposure model. Ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are considered as multiple exposure pathways. The tap water concentration of the contaminant and cancer potency factors for ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are treated as fuzzy variables while the remaining model parameters are treated using probability density functions. Combined utilization of fuzzy and random variables produces membership functions of risk to individuals at different fractiles of risk as well as probability distributions of risk for various alpha-cut levels of the membership function. The proposed method provides a robust approach in evaluating human health risk to exposure when there is both uncertainty and variability in model parameters. PFRA allows utilization of certain types of information which have not been used directly in existing risk assessment methods. 相似文献