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1.
Contribution of the sea surface temperature over the Mediterranean-Black Sea to the decadal shift of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Recent observational study has shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic
Oscillation (SNAO) was located farther eastward after the late 1970s compared to before. In this study,
the cause for this phenomenon is explored. The result shows that the eastward shift of the SNAO southern
center after the late 1970s is related to the variability of the Mediterranean-Black Sea (MBS) SST. A
warm MBS SST can heat and moisten its overlying atmosphere, consequently producing a negative sea level
pressure (SLP) departure over the MBS region. Because the MBS SST is negatively correlated with the SNAO,
the negative SLP departure can enhance the eastern part of the negative-phase of the SNAO southern center,
consequently producing an eastward SNAO southern center shift. Similarly, a cold MBS SST produces an eastward
positive-phase SNAO southern center shift.
The reason for why the MBS SST has an impact on the SNAO after the late 1970s but why it is not the case
beforehand is also discussed. It is found that this instable relationship is likely to be attributed to
the change of the variability of the MBS SST on the decadal time-scale. In 1951--1975, the variability of
the MBS SST is quite weak, but in 1978--2002, it becomes more active. The active SST can enhance the
interaction between the sea and its overlying atmosphere, thus strengthening the connection between the
MBS SST and the SNAO after the late 1970s. The above observational analysis results are further confirmed
by sensitivity experiments. 相似文献
2.
Enhancement of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Northern Hemisphere air temperature 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
This study investigates the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO)
and the simultaneous Northern Hemisphere (NH) land surface air temperature (SAT) by using the Climate
Research Unit (CRU) data. The results show that the SNAO is related to NH land SAT, but this linkage has
varied on decadal timescales over the last 52 years, with a strong connection appearing after the late
1970s, but a weak connection before. The mechanism governing the relationship between the SNAO and NH
land SAT is discussed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that such a variable
relationship may result from changes of the SNAO mode around the late 1970s. The SNAO pattern was centered
mainly over the North Atlantic before the late 1970s, and thus had a weak influence on the NH land SAT.
But after the late 1970s, the SNAO pattern shifted eastward and its southern center was enhanced in
magnitude and extent, which transported the SNAO signal to the North Atlantic surrounding continents and
even to central East Asia via an upper level wave train along the Asian jet. 相似文献
3.
Previous studies suggest that spring SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic(NTA) affect the tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) in the following summer and fall. The present study reveals that the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is not stationary. The influence of spring NTA SST on following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is weak and insignificant before, but strong and significant after, the late 1980 s. Before the late 1980 s, the NTA SST anomaly-induced SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific are weak, and the response of atmospheric circulation over the WNP is not strong. As a result, the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency is insignificant in the former period. In contrast,after the late 1980 s, NTA SST anomalies induce pronounced tropical central Pacific SST anomalies through an Atlantic–Pacific teleconnection. Tropical central Pacific SST anomalies further induce favorable conditions for WNP TC genesis,including vertical motion, mid-level relative humidity, and vertical zonal wind shear. Hence, the connection between NTA SST and WNP TC genesis frequency is significant in the recent period. Further analysis shows that the interdecadal change in the connection between spring NTA SST and following summer–fall WNP TC genesis frequency may be related to the climatological SST change over the NTA region. 相似文献
4.
南极海冰首要模态呈现偶极子型异常,正负异常中心分别位于别林斯高晋海/阿蒙森海和威德尔海。过去研究表明冬春季节南极海冰涛动异常对后期南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）型大气环流有显著影响,而AAO可以通过经向遥相关等机制影响北半球大气环流和东亚气候。本文中我们利用观测分析发现南极海冰涛动从5～7月（May–July,MJJ）到8～10月（August–October, ASO）有很好的持续性,并进一步分析其对北半球夏季大气环流的可能影响及其物理过程。结果表明,MJJ南极海冰涛动首先通过冰气相互作用在南半球激发持续性的AAO型大气环流异常,使得南半球中纬度和极地及热带之间的气压梯度加大,在MJJ至JAS,纬向平均纬向风呈现显著的正负相间的从南极到北极的经向遥相关型分布。对流层中层位势高度场上,在澳大利亚北部到海洋性大陆区域,出现显著的负异常,在东亚沿岸从低纬到高纬呈现南北走向的“? + ?”太平洋—日本（Pacific–Japan,PJ）遥相关波列,其对应赤道中部太平洋及赤道印度洋存在显著的降水和海温负异常,西北太平洋至我国东部沿海地区存在显著降水正异常和温度负异常;低纬度北美洲到大西洋一带存在的负位势高度异常和北大西洋附近存在的正位势高度异常中心,构成一个类似于西大西洋型遥相关（Western Atlantic,WA）的结构,对应赤道南大西洋降水增加和南撒哈拉地区降水减少。从物理过程来看,南极海冰涛动首先通过局地效应影响Ferrel环流,进而通过经圈环流调整使得海洋性大陆区域和热带大西洋上方的Hadley环流上升支得到增强,海洋性大陆区域特别是菲律宾附近的热带对流活动偏强,激发类似于负位相的PJ波列,影响东亚北太平洋地区的大气环流,而热带大西洋对流增强和北传特征,则通过激发WA遥相关影响大西洋和欧洲地区的大气环流。以上两种通道将持续性MJJ至ASO南极海冰涛动强迫的大气环流信号从南半球中高纬度经热带地区传递到北半球中高纬地区,从而对热带和北半球夏季大气环流产生显著影响。 相似文献
5.
A decadal change in activity of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was identified at a broad scale. The change was more prominent during August–October in the boreal summer. The BSISO activity during 1999–2008 (P2) was significantly greater than that during 1984–1998 (P1). Compared to P1, convection in the BSISO was enhanced and the phase speed of northward-propagating convection was reduced in P2. Under background conditions, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in P2 were apparent over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The former supplied favorable conditions for the active convection of the BSISO, whereas the latter led to a strengthened Walker circulation through enhanced convection. This induced descending anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thermal convection tends to be suppressed by descending anomalies, whereas once an active BSISO signal enters the Indian Ocean, convection is enhanced through convective instability by positive SST anomalies. After P2, the BSISO activity was weakened during 2009–2014 (P3). Compared to P2, convective activity in the BSISO tended to be inactive over the southern tropical Indian Ocean in P3. The phase speed of the northward-propagating convection was accelerated. Under background conditions during P3, warmer SST anomalies over the maritime continent enhance convection, which strengthened the local Hadley circulation between the western tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean. Hence, the convection in the BSISO over the southern tropical Indian Ocean was suppressed. The decadal change in BSISO activity correlates with the variability in seasonal mean SST over the tropical Asian monsoon region, which suggests that it is possible to predict the decadal change.
相似文献6.
1998年和2016年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水影响的数值模拟研究 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
基于1979-2016年ERA-Interim再分析资料和CAM5.3模式,研究了2016年和1998年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水以及大尺度环流的可能影响及其机制。结果表明,这两年前夏（6-7月）长江中下游及其以南地区降水均异常偏多,但1998年降水异常较2016年更为显著。后夏（8月）,2016年长江以南地区降水异常偏多,长江-黄河流域降水异常偏少,而1998年降水异常分布与之相反。2016年和1998年夏季中国东部降水异常的差异与西北太平洋对流层低层异常反气旋以及欧亚中高纬度环流变化的共同作用直接相关。敏感性数值试验的结果表明,北大西洋海温异常的显著差异是导致2016年和1998年夏季中国东部降水以及大尺度环流异常存在明显差异的重要原因之一。一方面,北大西洋海温异常可以通过改变欧亚中高纬度环流进而对中国夏季降水产生影响。1998年北大西洋海温异常自热带至副极地呈类似"+ - +"型分布,这种海温异常型能够在前夏欧亚中高纬度地区激发出双阻型的环流异常响应。2016年北大西洋海温异常自热带至副极地呈相对弱的"- + -"型分布,欧亚中高纬度环流异常响应总体偏弱。另一方面,北大西洋海温异常还可以通过影响热带纬向环流进而对西北太平洋对流层低层异常反气旋起调制作用。1998年北大西洋海温异常对夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋起增强作用,这与热带印度洋-太平洋海温的强迫作用相协调。然而,2016年北大西洋海温异常则有利于西北太平洋异常反气旋的减弱,这与热带印度洋-太平洋海温的强迫作用相反。因此,在这3个大洋的协同作用下,2016年和1998年前夏西北太平洋异常反气旋均偏强,但前者的振幅弱于后者。在后夏,1998年西北太平洋对流层低层仍受异常反气旋控制,2016年则为异常气旋控制。 相似文献
7.
Recent climatic trends in the tropical Atlantic 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Jacques Servain Guy Caniaux Yves K. Kouadio Michael J. McPhaden Moacyr Araujo 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(11):3071-3089
A homogeneous monthly data set of sea surface temperature (SST) and pseudo wind stress based on in situ observations is used to investigate the climatic trends over the tropical Atlantic during the last five decades (1964–2012). After a decrease of SST by about 1 °C during 1964–1975, most apparent in the northern tropical region, the entire tropical basin warmed up. That warming was the most substantial (>1 °C) in the eastern tropical ocean and in the longitudinal band of the intertropical convergence zone. Surprisingly, the trade wind system also strengthened over the peirod 1964–2012. Complementary information extracted from other observational data sources confirms the simultaneity of SST warming and the strengthening of the surface winds. Examining data sets of surface heat flux during the last few decades for the same region, we find that the SST warming was not a consequence of atmospheric heat flux forcing. Conversely, we suggest that long-term SST warming drives changes in atmosphere parameters at the sea surface, most notably an increase in latent heat flux, and that an acceleration of the hydrological cycle induces a strengthening of the trade winds and an acceleration of the Hadley circulation. These trends are also accompanied by rising sea levels and upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic. Though more work is needed to fully understand these long term trends, especially what happens from the mid-1970’s, it is likely that changes in ocean circulation involving some combination of the Atlantic meridional overtuning circulation and the subtropical cells are required to explain the observations. 相似文献
8.
利用1979—2012年西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径资料,Hadley中心的海温资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,研究了夏季(6—10月)热带北大西洋海温异常与西北太平洋热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)生成的关系及其可能机制。结果表明,夏季热带北大西洋海温异常与同期西北太平洋TC生成频次之间存在显著的负相关关系。热带北大西洋海温的异常增暖可产生一对东—西向分布的偶极型低层异常环流,其中气旋性异常环流位于北大西洋/东太平洋地区,反气旋异常环流位于西北太平洋地区。该反气旋环流异常使得TC主要生成区的对流活动受到抑制、低层涡度正异常、中低层相对湿度负异常、中层下沉气流异常,这些动力/热力条件均不利于TC生成。此外,西北太平洋地区低层涡旋动能负异常,同时来自大尺度环流的涡旋动能的正压转换也受到抑制,不能为TC的生成和发展提供额外能量源。反之亦然。 相似文献
9.
1990年代末东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送年代际变化特征及其影响机制 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用1983～2011年降水量、环流和海温的再分析资料,探讨了东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送的年代际变化特征,并分析了前冬北大西洋海温对东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送与大气环流的可能影响。研究结果表明,20世纪90年代末期东亚北部地区夏季整层水汽与降水年代际的变化特征相一致,整层水汽通量的年代际变化主要是由于纬向水汽输送异常作用的结果。东亚北部地区（35°～55°N,90°～145°E）西边界的水汽输送通量由多变少,东边界的水汽输送通量由少变多特征则直接导致了该地区降水由偏多转为偏少的年代际变化。就外强迫海温角度来说,前冬北大西洋海温跟东亚北部地区夏季500 hPa高度场、850 hPa风场和850 hPa比湿均显著相关。同时,在20世纪90年代中后期前冬北大西洋海温也表现出由偏低向偏高转变的年代际变化特征,且由于海温自身的记忆性前冬的海温异常一直延续到夏季。并在夏季激发出横跨北大西洋和欧亚大陆中高纬度地区的大西洋-欧亚（AEA）遥相关结构,并进一步影响东亚北部地区夏季水汽输送。 相似文献
10.
A series of recent papers showed that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the south equatorial tropical Atlantic modulate the interannual variability of the African and Indian monsoon rainfall. Physically this teleconnection can be explained by a simple Gill-Matsuno mechanism. In this work, the output from five different models chosen within the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 3) ensemble of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are analyzed to investigate how state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the impact of the South Tropical Atlantic (STA) SSTs on the Indian and African region. Using a correlation-regression technique, it is found that four out of the five models display a teleconnection between STA and Indian region which is generally weaker than in the observations but in agreement in the rainfall field pattern. This teleconnection is also noticeable in the ensemble mean of the five models. Over Africa, however, the significant changes in rainfall displayed in the observation are properly caught by only one of the CGCMs. Additionally, none of the models reproduces the symmetric upper-level wind response around the Equator seen over the Indian Ocean in the observations and all have significant biases also in the surface pressure field response to the tropical Atlantic SSTs. Nonetheless the STA response, particularly over the southern hemisphere, is indicative of the Gill-Matsuno-type mechanism identified in previous studies using idealized experiments with atmospheric GCMs and observational data. With a suite of atmospheric-only GCM integrations it is shown that the differences in amplitude and pattern are not only due to the strong biases and reduced variabilities of the CGCMs over the tropical Atlantic but they are also caused by the different physical parameterizations used in models. 相似文献
11.
Extratropical control of recent tropical Pacific decadal climate variability: a relay teleconnection 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Observations indicate that recent tropical Pacific decadal climate variability tends to be associated with the extratropical North Pacific through a relay teleconnection of a fast coupled ocean-atmosphere bridge and a slow oceanic tunnel. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model, forced by the observed decadal wind in the extratropical North Pacific, explicitly demonstrates that extratropical decadal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies may propagate to the tropics through a coupled wind-evaporative-SST (WES) feedback. The WES feedback cannot only lead to a nearly synchronous change of tropical SST, but also force a delayed adjustment of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper ocean to further sustain the tropical SST change. The study further suggests that the extratropical–tropical teleconnection provides a positive feedback to sustain the decadal changes in both the tropical and extratropical North Pacific. 相似文献
12.
Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of the southern African rainfall to the global SO-related circulation anomalies is simultaneous with the correlation between SOI and more extensive SST anomalies, particularly over the southern Indian Ocean. This feature is part of longer term (decadal), global SST variability, as inferred from statistical analyses. Numerical experiments, using the Météo-France general circulation model ARPEGE-Climat, are performed to test the impact of the observed SST warming in the southern Indian and extratropical oceans during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on southern African rainfall. Simulated results show that ENSO events, which occurred in the relatively cold background of the pre-1970 period in the southern oceans, had a little effect on southern Africa climatic conditions and atmospheric circulation. By contrast, more recent ENSO events, with warmer SST over the southern oceans, lead to a climatic bipolar pattern between continental southern African and the western Indian Ocean, which is characterized by reduced (enhanced) deep convection and rainfall over the subcontinent (the western Indian Ocean). A weaker subtropical high-pressure belt in the southwestern Indian Ocean is also simulated, along with a reduced penetration of the moist southern Indian Ocean trade winds over the southern African plateau. These results are consistent with the strong droughts observed over all southern Africa during ENSO events since 1970. 相似文献
13.
本文首先利用NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40再分析资料以及中国753站降水资料对太平洋—日本(Pacific-Japan,简称P-J)遥相关型在上世纪70年代末期气候突变前后的年代际变化特征进行了分析研究。结果表明,在气候突变前后,P-J遥相关型的位置发生了显著的变化,气候突变以后其位置明显向西向南偏移。这种位置的变化同样也反映在纬向风场、高度场上。研究结果还表明,气候突变前后P-J遥相关型的年代际变化与热带太平洋和印度洋海温变化有关。气候突变之前,P-J遥相关型的变化与前期热带太平洋和印度洋海温不存在显著的相关;但在气候突变之后,P-J遥相关型与前期冬春季的热带太平洋、印度洋海温之间存在大范围的显著相关区。这种P-J遥相关型与热带太平洋、印度洋海温相关关系的年代改变可能与1970年代中期以后赤道中东太平洋海温变化振幅明显增强有关。随后,本文采用一个高分辨率的大气环流模式,通过一系列的数值试验也进一步证实了1970年代末期热带太平洋和印度洋海温的年代际变化确实可致使P-J遥相关型位置发生相应的改变。 相似文献
14.
This paper examines the mean annual cycle, interannual variability, and leading patterns of the tropical Atlantic Ocean simulated in a long-term integration of the climate forecast system (CFS), a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model presently used for operational climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. By comparing the CFS simulation with corresponding observation-based analyses or reanalyses, it is shown that the CFS captures the seasonal mean climate, including the zonal gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, even though the CFS produces warm mean biases and underestimates the variability over the southeastern ocean. The seasonal transition from warm to cold phase along the equator is delayed 1 month in the CFS compared with the observations. This delay might be related to the failure of the model to simulate the cross-equatorial meridional wind associated with the African monsoon. The CFS also realistically simulates both the spatial structure and spectral distributions of the three major leading patterns of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic Ocean: the south tropical Atlantic pattern (STA), the North tropical Atlantic pattern (NTA), and the southern subtropical Atlantic pattern (SSA). The CFS simulates the seasonal dependence of these patterns and partially reproduces their association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The dynamical and thermodynamical processes associated with these patterns in the simulation and the observations are similar. The air-sea interaction processes associated with the STA pattern are well simulated in the CFS. The primary feature of the anomalous circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) associated with the NTA pattern resembles that in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) linked with the SSA pattern, implying a similarity of the mechanisms in the evolution of these patterns and their connection with the tropical and extratropical anomalies in their respective hemispheres. The anomalies associated with both the SSA and NTA patterns are dominated by atmospheric fluctuations of equivalent-barotropic structure in the extratropics including zonally symmetric and asymmetric components. The zonally symmetric variability is associated with the annular modes, the Arctic Oscillation in the NH and the Antarctic Oscillation in the SH. The zonally asymmetric part of the anomalies in the Atlantic is teleconnected with the anomalies over the tropical Pacific. The misplaced teleconnection center over the southern subtropical ocean may be one of the reasons for the deformation of the SSA pattern in the CFS. 相似文献
15.
Decadal interactions between the western tropical Pacific and the North Atlantic Oscillation 总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0
The relationship between interdecadal variations of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the last 120 years and circulation
anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in this study. Using an atmospheric general circulation
model (AGCM), we confirm observational evidence that variations in the SST gradient in the western tropical Pacific are related
to the NAO anomalies on decadal timescale, and may be contributing to the shift towards the positive NAO phase observed in
the late 20th century. The role played by the Indian Ocean-NAO teleconnection, advocated in recent studies focused on the
last 50 years, is also assessed in the context of the 120-year long record. It is suggested that a positive feedback between
the Pacific SST and the hemispheric circulation pattern embedding the decadal NAO signal may act to enhance the internal variability
of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, and justify the stronger teleconnection found in observational data than in SST-forced
AGCM experiments.
相似文献
| Fred KucharskiEmail: |
16.
An empirical orthogonal functions analysis of the onshore flow of moisture along the west coast of southern Africa using NCEP-DOE AMIP II Re-analyses suggests two dominant modes of variability that are linked to (a) variations in the circulation linked with the South Atlantic anticyclone (b) the intensity of the flow that penetrates from the tropical Atlantic. The second mode, referred as the Equatorial Westerly mode, contributes the most to moisture input from the Atlantic onto the subcontinent at tropical latitudes. Substantial correlations in austral summer between the Atlantic moisture flux in the tropics and rainfall over the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin suggest the potential role played by this zonal mode of water vapour transport. Composites for austral summer months when this Equatorial Westerly mode had a particularly strong expression, show an enhanced moisture input at tropical latitudes that feeds into the deep convection occurring over the Congo basin. Sustained meridional energy fluxes result in above normal rainfall east and south of the Congo belt. During years of reduced equatorial westerly moisture flux, a deficit of available humidity occurs in the southern tropics. A concomitant eastward shift of deep convection to the southwest Indian ocean and southeastern Africa, leads to below normal rainfall over the uplands surrounding the Congo basin. 相似文献
17.
Local and remote impacts of a tropical Atlantic salinity anomaly 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The climatic impacts of an enhanced evaporation prescribed during 50 years in the tropical Atlantic are investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Locally, the salinity increase leads to a rapid deepening and cooling of the surface mixed layer. This induces a deepening of the equatorial undercurrent and an intensification of the south equatorial current. A remote atmospheric response to the tropical Atlantic perturbation is detected in the North Atlantic sector after ten years. It has the form of a robust wave-like tropospheric perturbation seemingly excited by the weakening of atmospheric deep convection over the Amazonian basin. Meanwhile, the salt anomaly is carried northward by the mean oceanic circulation. It is traced up to the convection sites and then on its return path at depth towards lower latitudes. Consistent with the density increase, deep convection is enhanced after the arrival of the salt anomaly and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensifies about 20 years after the beginning of the perturbation. The adjustment of the tropical Atlantic to the AMOC intensification then modifies its initial response to the freshwater forcing, leading to a weaker cooling in the northern tropical Atlantic than in the southern tropical Atlantic, a slight northward shift of the tropical Atlantic precipitation pattern and an intensification of the North Brazil current. On the other hand, no significant anomalous precipitations are found in the Pacific. The initial remote atmospheric response is also modulated, by an NAO-like response to the AMOC intensification. 相似文献
18.
20世纪70年代末前后北半球冬季对流层遥相关的时空演变研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
应用NOAA提供的1950～2008年月平均500 hPa高度场再分析资料、海表温度、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数和大西洋三极模(ATM)指数, 研究了20世纪70年代末前后北半球冬季对流层遥相关的时空演变规律。相关分析、Mann-Kendall分析和凝聚小波分析的结果表明, 20世纪70年代末以来, 太平洋—北美(PNA)型、欧亚(EUP)型、西太平洋(WP)型和西大西洋(WA)型四种遥相关空间分布和时间演变产生较为显著的变化。空间分布的变化既体现在遥相关正、负异常中心的强度上, 也体现在正、负异常的范围上; 时间演变方面的变化则体现在PNA和WP遥相关指数具有上升趋势, EUP和WA遥相关指数具有一定下降趋势。20世纪70年代末以来, 影响北半球冬季5种遥相关型的海温关键区均有所改变。其中, 各大洋上影响EUP遥相关型的海温关键区面积显著缩小, 影响WA遥相关型的太平洋海温关键区面积显著缩小, 影响EA遥相关型海温关键区在北大西洋中南部改变明显; 在16年以上时间尺度上, PDO变化是造成北半球冬季PNA、 EUP、 WP三种遥相关型变化的主要原因; ATM变化是造成北半球冬季WA和EA两种遥相关型变化的主要原因。 相似文献
19.
Moisture exchange between the South Atlantic and southern Africa is examined in this study through zonal moisture transport.
Along the west coast of southern Africa, a multivariate analysis of the zonal flow of moisture computed from NCEP-DOE AMIP
II Re-analyses reveals a primary mode of variability typical of variations in intensity and of the latitudinal migration of
the circulation associated with the midlatitude westerlies and the South Atlantic anticyclone. In austral summer (January–February),
this mode, referred to as the South Atlantic midlatitude mode, is found to be well correlated with rainfall over southern
Africa (i.e. to the south of the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin). Its positive/negative phases are found to correspond
with surface pressures changes over the South Atlantic region in austral summer when the South Atlantic anticyclone is shifted
northward/southward respectively. Such changes are accompanied by dipole-like SST anomalies in the midlatitude South Atlantic
Ocean, while simultaneous SST anomalies with a similar structure are also found over South Indian Ocean regions. In January–February,
positive/negative events linked to the South Atlantic midlatitude mode are marked by meridional shifts (northward/southward)
and weakening/strengthening of the ITCZ over the southern tropics, together with modulations in intensity (weakened/sustained)
of the Angola low, which could act as a tropical source of moisture for Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs). In association
with a strengthened/weakened zonal component of the southern extension of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), this could modulate
the meridional transfer of moisture south of 15°S to the advantage/detriment of Angolan coastal regions, where above/below
rainfall are expected. Variations in the latitudinal position (northward/southward) of the South Atlantic anticyclone, and
thus of the midlatitude westerlies, are also found to reduce/favour moisture advection towards southern Africa subtropics
allowing the southern Indian trades to penetrate less/more over the subcontinent south of 25°S. This would create a situation
where convection processes are inhibited/supported within the SICZ/TTTs region resulting in drier/wetter conditions locally
for positive/negative events respectively. 相似文献
20.
The correlation between Sahel rainfall and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the northern summer has been varying for the last fifty years. We propose that the existence of periods of weak or strong relationship could result from an interaction with the global decadal scale sea surface temperature (SST) background. The main modes of SST variability have been extracted through a principal component analysis with Varimax rotation. The correlations between a July-September Sahel rainfall index and these SST modes have been computed on a 20-year running window between 1945 and 1993. The correlations with the interannual ENSO-SST mode are negative, not significant in the 1960s during the transition period from the wet climate phasis to the long-running drought in the Sahel, but then were significant since 1976. During the former period, the correlations between the Sahel rainfall index and the other SST modes (expressing mostly on quasi and multi-decadal scales) are the highest, in particular correlations with the tropical Atlantic “dipole”. Correlations between Sahel and Guinea Coast rainfall are also significantly negative. After 1970, the Sahel-Guinea Coast rainfall correlations are no longer significant, and the ENSO-SST mode becomes the only one significantly correlated with Sahel rainfall, especially due to the impact of warm events. The partial correlations between the ENSO-SST mode and the Sahel rainfall index, when the influence of the other SST modes are eliminated, are significant over all the 20-year running periods between 1945 and 1993, suggesting that this summer teleconnection could be modulated by the decadal scale SST background. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses reproduce accurately the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation after 1968. In particular a regional West African Monsoon Index (WAMI), combining wind speed anomalies at 925 and 200?hPa, is highly correlated with the July-September Sahel rainfall index. A warm ENSO event is associated both with an eastward mean sea level pressure gradient between the eastern tropical Pacific and the tropical Atlantic and with a northward pressure gradient along the western coast of West Africa. This pattern leads to enhanced trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and to weaker moisture advection over West Africa, consistent with a weaker monsoon system strength and a weaker Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses do not reproduce accurately the decadal variability of the atmospheric circulation over West Africa because of artifical biases. Therefore the impact of the decadal scale pattern of the atmospheric circulation has been investigated with atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) sensitivity experiments, by forcing the ARPEGE-Climat model with different combinations of an El Niño-like SST pattern with the pattern of the main mode of decadal scale SST variability where the hightest weights are located in the Pacific and Indian basins. AGCM outputs show that the decadal scale SST variations weakly affect Sahel rainfall variability but that they do induce an indirect effect on Sahel rainfall by enhancing the impact of the warm ENSO phases after 1980, through an increase in the fill-in of the monsoon trough and a moisture advection deficit over West Africa. 相似文献