共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 904 毫秒
1.
N. M. Gavrilov A. V. Koval A. I. Pogoreltsev E. N. Savenkova 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2014,54(3):381-387
The authors’ parameterization of the dynamic and thermal action of stationary orographic waves generated by the Earth’s surface relief is included into the model of general circulation of the middle and upper atmosphere. Numerical simulation of the general circulation in the troposphere and stratosphere was performed and the influence of stationary orographic waves propagating upward from the Earth’s surface on the meridional and vertical velocity was studied. It is shown that the allowance for the dynamic and thermal action of these waves in the numerical model leads to changes by up to 20–30% in the meridional circulation and ozone fluxes associated with it at heights of the ozone layer maximum. 相似文献
2.
Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting. 相似文献
3.
The paper presents and analyzes, from the point of view of smooth dynamic systems theory, a two-layer baroclinic model of
the troposphere in geostrophic approximation. The model describes airflow in β-channel within the tropospheric part of the
main Hadley circulation cell. It enables to obtain, after application of the Galerkin method, a fairly simple low-parametric
dynamic system describing the phenomena of non-linear interactions, bifurcations and blocking in the atmosphere. This enables
to take into consideration such basic factors influencing the atmospheric dynamics like the heat exchange within the surface,
orography, vertical variability of zonal wind and hydrostatic stability.
Impact of zonal thermal variability of the surface and vertical shear of zonal wind in the troposphere on the orographic bifurcation
was investigated and the oscillation character in the dynamic system after Hopf bifurcation of the second kind was analyzed.
Additionally, the model dynamics was investigated in conditions including momentum forcing in the upper and lower parts of
the troposphere and excluding orographic interaction, as well as in the conditions of thermal interaction between the troposphere
and the surface for the vertical shear of zonal wind in both tropospheric layers. Impact of the mean zonal wind in the troposphere
on the properties of model dynamics was assessed.
It was proved that zonally varied surface temperature and layered mean zonal wind in the atmosphere are the parameters that
have basic influence on the model dynamics. They cause numerous bifurcations and strongly influence the periods of oscillations
of the model variables. They are often Hopf bifurcations of the second kind during which tropospheric states fairly distant
from the ones before the bifurcations are generated. This significantly influences the model predictability. 相似文献
4.
针对长江中下游中尺度地形特点以及暴雨过程发生发展期间风垂直切变的主要观测特征,设计了一系列中尺度地形的三维理想数值试验,分析了干大气地形流和重力波特征,探讨了条件不稳定湿大气地形对流降水的模态分布,在此基础上研究了圆形、直线风垂直切变和切变厚度对中尺度地形对流降水强度和模态分布的影响.结果发现:在 Fr≈1的干大气条件下,气流遇到地形后分支、绕流和爬升现象同时存在,地形激发的重力波在水平和垂直方向上传播,其在迎风坡、背风坡、地形上游和下游的振幅不同,并组织出不同强度的垂直上升运动.在Fr > 1的条件不稳定湿大气下,地形对流降水主要存在三种模态,即迎风坡和背风坡准静止对流降水以及地形下游移动性对流降水,地形对流降水的形成与重力波在低层组织的上升运动密切相关.风垂直切变对地形对流降水的强度和模态分布有重要作用,其中圆形风垂直切变(风随高度旋转)不仅影响地形下游对流降水系统的移动方向,而且影响迎风坡和背风坡山脚处对流降水中心的分布和强度;直线风垂直切变(风随高度无旋转)主要影响地形对流降水的移动速度和强度.风随高度自下而上顺(逆)时针旋转,地形对流系统向下游传播时向右(左)偏移.风垂直切变主要通过影响地形重力波的结构和传播以及对流系统的形成、移动方向和速度,来影响地形对流降水的模态分布,其中对流层中低层的风垂直切变对地形对流降水强度和模态分布有重要影响. 相似文献
5.
Abstract Using an approach similar to the biological processes of natural selection and evolution, the genetic algorithm (GA) is a nonconventional optimum search technique. Genetic algorithms have the ability to search large and complex decision spaces and handle nonconvexities. In this paper, the GA is applied for solving the optimum classification of rainy and non-rainy day occurrences based on vertical velocity, dewpoint depression, temperature and humidity data. The problem involves finding optimum classification based on known data, training the future prediction system and then making reliable predictions for rainfall occurrences which have significance in agricultural, transportation, water resources and tourism activities. Various statistical approaches require restrictive assumptions such as stationarity, homogeneity and normal probability distribution of the hydrological variables concerned. The GAs do not require any of these assumptions in their applications. The GA approach for the occurrence classifications and predictions is presented in steps and then the application of the methodology is shown for precipitation occurrence (non-occurrence) data. It has been shown that GAs give better results than classical approaches such as discriminant analysis. The application of the methodology is presented independently for the precipitation event occurrences and forecasting at the Lake Van station in eastern Turkey. Finally, the amounts of precipitation are predicted with a model similar to a third order Markov model whose parameters are estimated by the GA technique. 相似文献
6.
—The radiative-convective feedback and land-sea thermal forcing play significant roles in maintenance of the summer monsoon circulation over the Indian sub-continent. In this study, the role of radiative transfer in maintaining the monsoon circulation is examined with numerical sensitivity experiments. For this purpose, a sixteen layer primitive equation limited area model is used to perform numerical simulations with and without atmospheric radiative transfer processes parameterized in the model. The initial values and boundary conditions for the numerical integrations of the model are derived from operational analyses of the ECMWF, UK. The results show that the radiative transfer is essential in maintaining the intensity of the low level Somali Jet as well as the upper level Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over the Indian sub-continent and adjoining seas. The meridional circulation over the region is also well simulated. As a result, enough moisture transports from the warm equatorial region to simulate more realistic orographic precipitation in the windward side of the mountains along the West coast of India. Without radiative transfer processes in the model atmosphere the simulated monsoon circulation weakens, moisture transport decreases and the precipitation lessens. 相似文献
7.
Summary Two diagnostic fine-mesh models for the determination of the vertical wind component over mountainous terrain have been developed. Both models rely on large-scale grid-point data. The first is based on the equivalent-barotropic scheme and uses 500 mbar heights as input data; the second model is built on the omega-equation and makes use of four input levels. Large-scale terms are interpolated from the large-scale grid to a fine-mesh grid with tenfold smaller mesh-width, while orographic terms are computed in the fine-mesh grid only. The slope of the model-topography and frictional effects are taken into consideration. Humidity and thermal convection are ignored. From computed vertical velocities and observed precipitations, an approximate prediction of precipitation is inferred by a regression technique. In the majority of cases, the baroclinic model gave slightly better results than the barotropic model. 相似文献
8.
ZHANG Yi & TAN ZheMin? Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather of Ministry of Education and Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing Univer- sity Nanjing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(2):306-319
Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical model (MM5), the evolution and structures of baroclinic waves with and without surface drag in case of dry and moist atmosphere are simulated, with special emphases on the effects of surface drag on the low-level frontal structure and frontogenesis. There are two different effects of surface drag on the low-level frontogenesis in the dry case. On one hand, the surface drag weakens the low-level frontogenesis and less inclined to develop the baroclinic wave due to the dissipation. But on the other hand, the surface drag induces a strong ageostrophic flow, which prolongs the low-level frontogenesis and finally leads to the enhancement of cold front. Compared with the no surface drag case, the surface drag increases the frontal slope espe- cially in the boundary layer, where the front is almost vertical to the surface, and then enhances the prefrontal vertical motion. All these conclusions expanded the analytical theory of Tan and Wu (1990). In the moist atmosphere, the influence of surface drag on frontal rainbands is also obvious. The surface drag weakens the convection, and reduces the energy dissipation near the surface when the initial relative humidity is relatively weak. At this time, the confluence induced post-frontal updrafts moves across the cold front and reinforces the prefrontal convection, which is beneficial to the maintenance of the rainband in cold sector. Given the enhancement of relative humidity, the moist convection domi- nates the low-level frontogenesis while the retardation of surface drag on energy dissipation is not obvious, therefore the effects of surface drag on the low-level frontogenesis and precipitation are re- duced. 相似文献
9.
Stable water isotope ratios are measured as a tracer of environmental processes in materials such as leaves, soils, and lakes. Water in these archives may experience evaporation, which increases the abundance of heavy isotopologues proportionally to the gradients in humidity and isotope ratio between the evaporating water and the surrounding atmosphere. The isotope ratio of the atmosphere has been difficult to measure until recently, and measurements remain scarce. As a result, several assumptions have been adopted to estimate isotope ratios of atmospheric water vapour. Perhaps the most commonly employed assumption in terrestrial environments is that water vapour is in isotopic equilibrium with precipitation. We evaluate this assumption using an eight‐member ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations that include explicit calculation of isotope ratios in precipitation and vapour. We find that across the model ensemble, water vapour is typically less depleted in heavy isotopologues than expected if it were in equilibrium with annual precipitation. Atmospheric vapour likely possesses higher‐than‐expected isotope ratios because precipitation isotope ratios are determined by atmospheric conditions that favour condensation, which do not reflect atmospheric mixing and advection processes outside of precipitation events. The effect of this deviation on theoretical estimates of isotope ratios of evaporating waters scales with relative humidity. As a result, the equilibrium assumption gives relatively accurate estimates of the isotope ratios of evaporating waters in low latitudes but performs increasingly poorly at increasing latitudes. Future studies of evaporative water pools should include measurements of atmospheric isotope ratios or constrain potential bias with isotope‐enabled GCM simulations. 相似文献
10.
O. N. Savina P. A. Bespalov V. O. Rapoport N. A. Ryzhov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2006,46(2):247-253
The nonlinear equation of the first order of the Riccati type has been obtained for the wave impedance of acoustic gravity waves in the nonisothermal atmosphere. The vertically nonuniform horizontal wind and the effect of viscosity on the horizontal components of the velocity field have been taken into account in the calculations. The boundary-value problem for the Riccati equation is defined by the boundary emission condition at high altitudes. Upon finding the wave impedance along with the generalized polarization relationship, all remaining disturbances of the atmospheric parameters related to acoustic gravity waves are found with the help of a simple integration. The results of using a developed formalism are illustrated by the numerical computation of acoustic gravity wave fields in the atmosphere with real vertical profiles of temperature and horizontal field velocity. 相似文献
11.
It is crucial for accurately describing the precipitation patterns and their underlying mechanisms to optimise the hydro-climatic model parameters and improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasting. Based on 212 precipitation samples collected during August 2015 to July 2016 in the mid-mountain region of the Manasi River Basin in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, we estimated the effect of sub-cloud evaporation on precipitation, analysed the factors that influence the sub-cloud evaporation, and modelled the response of sub-cloud evaporation to global warming. The mean remaining raindrop mass fraction after evaporation (f ) in this region is 94.39%. The mean deviation between d-excess (Δd ) of ground precipitation and raindrops under cloud is −4.22‰. The intensity of sub-cloud evaporation is the highest in summer. There is a significant positive correlation between f and Δd (0.72‰/%). The relative humidity and diameter of raindrops were observed to have a direct influence on the intensity of sub-cloud evaporation. The temperature was observed to influence the intensity of sub-cloud evaporation indirectly by influencing the relative humidity and diameter of raindrops. Global warming will increase the intensity of sub-cloud evaporation in the Tianshan Mountains, especially for small precipitation events. 相似文献
12.
Christina Thoma Werner Schneider Matthieu Masbou Andreas Bott 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(5-6):881-893
The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations. 相似文献
13.
Ralph Markson 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1971,84(1):161-200
Summary The basic thesis of this paper is that the proper scope of meteorology should include, besides the earth's atmosphere, the sun's atmosphere (the solar corona), the associated interplanetary magnetic field, and lunar modulation of this environment. Recent advances in space science have enabled us to make direct measurements in this region for the first time. The shape and characteristics of the magnetosphere have been completely redefined during the last ten years from a simple magnetic dipole to the present model with an elongated tail stretched out by the solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field has been defined with its spiral structure and sectors tied into the solar surface. This provides a magnetic link between the sun and earth. It is probable that extra-terrestrial factors do play a role in regulating weather, although the extent of this influence remains to be determined. Possibly such effects are most significant or easily detectable in the realm of atmospheric electricity. In view of the limitations in our present knowledge of all the variables responsible for regulating weather, it would seem appropriate to pursue the study of extra-terrestrial influences. Such research could lead to a better understanding of atmospheric circulation, precipitation mechanisms and thunderstorms. The field of meteorology which might particularly benefit from such research is long range weather forecasting. 相似文献
14.
本模式用以K半经验理论为基础的闭合方程组求解,引进了地形作用、动量、热量和水汽的侧向扩散和垂直湍流交换以及凝结加热等物理过程,其中湍流交换系数K是地表粗糙度、几何高度、大气稳定度及风速切变等因子的函数。本模式还考虑了山地、平原和水面在地形高度、地表粗糙度、辐射、蒸发及热交换等方面的差异,在下垫面上建立热平衡方程与边界层内控制方程耦合。将模式应用于太湖流域,计算得到的该流域边界层内温、压、湿、风的分布特征与实际情况相似,模式具有一定的实用性。 相似文献
15.
本模式用以K半经验理论为基础的闭合方程组求解,引进了地形作用、动量、热量和水汽的侧向扩散和垂直湍流交换以及凝结加热等物理过程,其中湍流交换系数K是地表粗糙度、几何高度、大气稳定度及风速切变等因子的函数。本模式还考虑了山地、平原和水面在地形高度、地表粗糙度、辐射、蒸发及热交换等方面的差异,在下垫面上建立热平衡方程与边界层内控制方程耦合。将模式应用于太湖流域,计算得到的该流域边界层内温、压、湿、风的分布特征与实际情况相似,模式具有一定的实用性。 相似文献
16.
The vertical distribution of roots in the soil is of central importance to the mass and energy exchange between the land and the atmosphere. It has been demonstrated that the vertical root profiles which maximize transpiration in numerical experiments reflect well the characteristics of root profiles observed in nature for water-limited ecosystems. Previous research has demonstrated how the optimal vertical root profile depends on both the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the soil texture. Recently, in the climate literature, it has been suggested Chou et al. (2012) [5] that increased greenhouse forcing in the tropics can lead to a simultaneous decrease in the frequency and increase in the intensity of precipitation. In this paper we demonstrate how such a change in the statistical structure of rainfall, even with no change to MAP, requires deeper root distributions to maintain optimal water use. These results raise interesting questions for future studies of nutrient dynamics, the cost of additional below ground carbon allocation, and inter plant functional type competition. 相似文献
17.
Spatiotemporal variation of stable isotopic composition in precipitation: Post‐condensational effects in a humid area 
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下载免费PDF全文 In the present study, a 2‐year dataset on δ18O and δ2H in precipitation is used to investigate hydrometeorologic controls on the isotopic compositions in a temperate maritime climate. Data was collected in Denmark along a transect of Six sampling stations across a landscape with a small topographic gradient and predominant westerly winds. Data showed the local meteoric water line for this region is expressed by the equation δ2H = 7.4δ18O + 5.4‰. A significant trend correlating enriched isotopic values to humidities around 70% during dry season and more depleted isotopic values to humidities around 90% during wet season was derived from the dataset. Temperature was found to only influence the isotopic composition in a secondary way, whereas no significant relationship was obtained for precipitation amount and evapotranspiration. It is suggested that subcloud post‐condensation exchange strongly influences the isotopic composition at the study site. A simple model of evaporation on falling rain was applied with the aim to reproduce observational data and show the potential influence of changing humidity conditions on precipitation compositions. The rather simple model approach did not fully explain the observational data, but it highlights the drastic isotopic changes from a falling raindrop that potentially can occur due to its release into a dryer atmosphere. This study shows that regional conditions and especially humidity can alter the isotopic composition in precipitation substantially even in regions without major topographic and hydrometeorologic gradients. 相似文献
18.
准确的湿度垂直廓线对短期数值天气预报和中长期气候研究分析均具有重要参考价值,但太阳辐射与高空云雨等因素导致探空湿度测量精度较低.针对探空仪GTS1白天进行湿度测量时存在明显偏干误差的现象,本文建立了GTS1湿度测量结构模型,采用计算流体动力学方法重点研究了太阳辐射对GTS1湿度测量的影响,同时探讨了其防雨/防辐射罩的防雨效果.结合改进的太阳辐射计算模型,利用Fluent模拟分析了防雨/防辐射罩云雨滴轨迹和内部温度场分布,数值仿真结果表明:在垂直气流下防雨/防辐射罩基本保护湿度传感器免受高空云雨的影响,对太阳辐射也起到一定防护作用.但太阳辐射对GTS1湿度测量的偏干影响仍较显著,海拔30km左右相对误差甚至高达70%.通过与RS92及GTS1探空湿度测量中的太阳辐射偏干误差相对比,发现基于流体动力学数值计算的湿度相对误差随海拔高度的变化趋势与之基本吻合.本文也给出了理论计算与实验测量存在一定差异的原因,进而以南京探空站2014年不同季节的温度、气压、气球的上升速度等探空数据为计算参数,获取了太阳辐射误差与海拔及环境温度的关系,并对四组探空湿度廓线进行太阳辐射误差修正,提升了GTS1探空仪高空湿度测量的精度.本文研究结果为探空湿度测量太阳辐射偏干误差的有效修正提供了一定的参考. 相似文献
19.
There are several levels of models for the snowmelt process in terms of the snow thermal structure: isothermal, bi-layered and multi-layered models. However, it is difficult to choose the appropriate level of complexity for application because the number of unknown variables is crucial in model handling. One of the major issues in energy balance snow models is the shape of the snow temperature vertical profile. This profile, if taken as a specified function, would simplify a snowmelt model calibration and computation significantly. In this study, in order to determine the appropriate representative snow vertical thermal profile, snow temperature measurements have been performed using five snow thermocouples placed vertically along an observation tower with insulating arms. Also, as a field experimental study of an energy balance snow model, the net radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed along with the vertical one dimensional snow temperature profile have been observed at a field site in Lake Tahoe Basin. The computational results correspond with the measured snow temperature profile and snow water equivalent reasonably well. It is illustrated that the temperature in the snow near surface (called the “active layer”) varies daily, and the lower snow layer (called the “inactive layer”) is barely affected by the atmosphere. The results of field observations and the numerical experiments show that the vertical temperature distributions in the active layer, which is the upper layer affected by energy exchange with the atmosphere, generally have an exponential shape during night time under cold weather, while snow pack stays around 0 °C during daytime. Both of the results indicate that not only the snow temperature in the top active layer, but also the thickness of snow active layer fluctuates during the snowmelt process. The observation results show that the thickness of the active layer may reach about 60 cm in Sierra Nevada, California. These results provide significant information for the development of appropriate approximations in physically based snowmelt modeling. 相似文献
20.
The flow-sediment interaction plays a considerable role on the vertical (internal) profiles of current,salinity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) within a turbidity maximum zone (TMZ).Numerical modeling provides valuable insights into the complex estuarine physical processes.By combining numerical modeling with field observations,the influencing factors of fine sediment dynamics within the TMZ of Yangtze Estuary have been explored in this study.Firstly,during the neap tide,the measured data present that the current is too weak to break the density stratification,and the vertical flow structure is effectively altered.Secondly,a three-dimensional numerical model based on the Delft3D has been developed and a range of numerical sensitivity analyses were carried out to distinguish the dominant mechanisms and physical processes responsible for the phenomena observed from the measurement data.The numerical investigation highlights the following findings.(1) The vertical profile of currents within the TMZ is largely affected by saltwater intrusion,especially during lower currents when the baroclinic pressure gradient can significantly reshape the local vertical profiles of velocity.(2) The baroclinic effects are primarily determined by the stratification of salinity.(3) In addition to salinity,SSC also influences the local density stratification when its contribution to fluid density is comparable to that of salinity.(4) The settling velocity determines the overall sediment distribution and vertical profiles of the SSC in the water column.The SSC-dependent settling velocity (including the flocculation-induced acceleration and hindered settling deceleration phases) affects the longitudinal movement of the sediments.(5) The vertical profiles of current,salinity and SSC within the TMZ are highly associated with the turbulence determined by the model.The approach to modulate the vertical eddy viscosity in the model,based on the empirical dependency between Rig and Prt,may lead to a numerical instability in the stratified flow.In order to improve the stratification of SSC,additional turbulence damping effect is suggested to be implemented in the model. 相似文献