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1.
Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.  相似文献   

2.
The major (M w = 8.8) Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 generated a trans-oceanic tsunami that was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. Waves associated with this event had features similar to those of the 1960 tsunami generated in the same region by the Great (M w = 9.5) 1960 Chilean Earthquake. Both tsunamis were clearly observed on the coast of British Columbia. The 1960 tsunami was measured by 17 analog pen-and-paper tide gauges, while the 2010 tsunami was measured by 11 modern digital coastal tide gauges, four NEPTUNE-Canada bottom pressure recorders located offshore from southern Vancouver Island, and two nearby open-ocean DART stations. The 2010 records were augmented by data from seven NOAA tide gauges on the coast of Washington State. This study examines the principal characteristics of the waves from the 2010 event (height, period, duration, and arrival and travel times) and compares these properties for the west coast of Canada with corresponding properties of the 1960 tsunami. Results show that the 2010 waves were approximately 3.5 times smaller than the 1960 waves and reached the British Columbia coast 1 h earlier. The maximum 2010 wave heights were observed at Port Alberni (98.4 cm) and Winter Harbour (68.3 cm); the observed periods ranged from 12 min at Port Hardy to 110–120 min at Prince Rupert and Port Alberni and 150 min at Bamfield. The open-ocean records had maximum wave heights of 6–11 cm and typical periods of 7 and 15 min. Coastal and open-ocean tsunami records revealed persistent oscillations that “rang” for 3–4 days. Tsunami energy occupied a broad band of periods from 3 to 300 min. Estimation of the inverse celerity vectors from cross-correlation analysis of the deep-sea tsunami records shows that the tsunami waves underwent refraction as they approached the coast of Vancouver Island with the direction of the incoming waves changing from an initial direction of 340° True to a direction of 15° True for the second train of waves that arrived 7 h later after possible reflection from the Marquesas and Hawaiian islands.  相似文献   

3.
In the last 15 years there have been 16 tsunami events recorded at tide stations on the Pacific Coast of Canada. Eleven of these events were from distant sources covering almost all regions of the Pacific, as well as the December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Three tsunamis were generated by local or regional earthquakes and two were meteorological tsunamis. The earliest four events, which occurred in the period 1994–1996, were recorded on analogue recorders; these tsunami records were recently re-examined, digitized and thoroughly analysed. The other 12 tsunami events were recorded using digital high-quality instruments, with 1-min sampling interval, installed on the coast of British Columbia (B.C.) in 1998. All 16 tsunami events were recorded at Tofino on the outer B.C. coast, and some of the tsunamis were recorded at eight or more stations. The tide station at Tofino has been in operation for 100 years and these recent observations add to the dataset of tsunami events compiled previously by S.O. Wigen (1983) for the period 1906–1980. For each of the tsunami records statistical analysis was carried out to determine essential tsunami characteristics for all events (arrival times, maximum amplitudes, frequencies and wave-train structure). The analysis of the records indicated that significant background noise at Langara, a key northern B.C. Tsunami Warning station located near the northern end of the Queen Charlotte Islands, creates serious problems in detecting tsunami waves. That station has now been moved to a new location with better tsunami response. The number of tsunami events observed in the past 15 years also justified re-establishing a tide gauge at Port Alberni, where large tsunami wave amplitudes were measured in March 1964. The two meteorological events are the first ever recorded on the B.C. coast. Also, there have been landslide generated tsunami events which, although not recorded on any coastal tide gauges, demonstrate, along with the recent investigation of a historical catastrophic event, the significant risk that landslide generated tsunami pose to coastal and inland regions of B.C.  相似文献   

4.
Twin Tsunamis Triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti Earthquake   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
On 12 January 2010, a magnitude M w 7.0 earthquake occurred 25 km west–southwest of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince causing an estimated 316,000 fatalities, thereby exceeding any previous loss of life from a similar size earthquake. In addition, tsunami waves triggered by the earthquake caused at least three fatalities at Petit Paradis due to a complete lack of tsunami awareness. The International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST) was deployed within weeks of the event and covered the greater Bay of Port-au-Prince and more than 100 km of Hispaniola’s southern coastline. The collected survey data include more than 21 tsunami heights along with observations of coastal land level change. Maximum tsunami heights of 3 m have been measured for two independently triggered tsunamis.  相似文献   

5.
The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 1022 Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.  相似文献   

6.
The accumulation of data sets of past tsunamis is the most basic but reliable way to prepare for future tsunamis because the frequency of tsunami occurrence and their magnitude can be estimated by historical records of tsunamis. Investigation of tsunami deposits preserved in geological layers is an effective measure to understand ancient tsunamis that occurred before historical records began. However, the areas containing tsunami deposits can be narrower than the area of tsunami inundation, thus resulting in underestimation of the magnitude of past tsunamis. A field survey was conducted after the 2010 Chile tsunami and 2011 Japan tsunami to investigate the chemical properties of the tsunami-inundated soil to examine the applicability of tsunami inundation surveys considering water-soluble salts in soil. The soil and tsunami deposits collected in the tsunami-inundated areas are rich in water-soluble ions (Na+, Mg2+, Cl?, Br? and SO 4 2? ) compared with the samples collected in the non-inundated areas. The analytical result that the ratios of Na+, Mg2+, Br? and SO 4 2? to Cl? are nearly the same in the tsunami deposits and in the tsunami-inundated soil suggests that the deposition of these ions resulting from the tsunami inundation does not depend on whether or not tsunami deposits exist. Discriminant analysis of the tsunami-inundated areas using the ion contents shows the high applicability of these ions to the detection of tsunami inundation during periods when the amount of rainfall is limited. To examine the applicability of this method to palaeotsunamis, the continuous monitoring of water-soluble ions in tsunami-inundated soil is needed as a future study.  相似文献   

7.
Tide gauge data collected from Sri Lanka (three stations) and Western Australia (eleven stations) during the Indian Ocean tsunamis, which occurred in December 2004, March 2005, July 2006, and September 2007, and incorporated five tsunamis, were examined to determine tsunami behaviour during these events. During the December 2004 tsunami, maximum wave heights of 3.87 m and 1.75 m were recorded at Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Bunbury (Western Australia), respectively. The results indicated that although the relative magnitudes of the tsunamis varied, the tsunami behaviour at each station was similar. This was due to the effect of the local and regional topography. At all tide gauges, the spectral energy corresponding to periods between 20 and 85 minutes increased during the tsunami. The sea-level data obtained from the west and south coasts of Sri Lanka (Colombo and Kirinda) indicated the importance of wave reflections from the Maldives Island chain, which produced the maximum wave two to three hours after the arrival of the first wave. In contrast, Trincomalee on the east coast did not show evidence of a reflected wave. Similarly, along the west coast of Australia, the highest waves occurred 15 hours after the arrival of the first wave. Here, based on travel times, we postulated that the waves were reflected from the Mascarene Ridge and/or the Island of Madagascar. Reflected waves were not present in the 2006 tsunami, where the primary waves propagated away from topographic features. One of the main influences of the tsunami was to set up oscillations at the local resonance frequency. Because Sri Lanka and Western Australia have relatively straight coastlines, these oscillations were related to the fundamental period of the shelf oscillation. For Colombo, this corresponded to 75-minute period, whereas in Geraldton and Busselton (Australia), the four-hour period was most prominent; at Jurien Bay and Fremantle, the resonance period was 2.7 hours.  相似文献   

8.
On 11 March 2011, a moment magnitude M w = 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Japan Tohoku coast causing catastrophic damage and loss of human lives. In the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, we conducted the reconnaissance survey in the city of Rikuzentakata, Japan. In comparison with three previous historical tsunamis impacting the same region, the 2011 event presented the largest values with respect to the tsunami height, the inundation area and the inundation distance. A representative tsunami height of 15 m was recorded in Rikuzentakata, with increased heights of 20 m around rocky headlands. In terms of the inundation area, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami exceeded by almost 2.6 times the area flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami, which ranks second among the four events compared. The maximum tsunami inundation distance was 8.1 km along the Kesen River, exceeding the 1933 Showa and 1960 Chilean tsunami inundations by factors of 6.2 and 2.7, respectively. The overland tsunami inundation distance was less than 2 km. The tsunami inundation height linearly decreased along the Kesen River at a rate of approximately 1 m/km. Nevertheless, the measured inland tsunami heights exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. A designated “tsunami control forest” planted with a cross-shore width of about 200 m along a 2 km stretch of Rikuzentakata coastline was completely overrun and failed to protect the local community during this extreme event. Similarly, many designated tsunami shelters were too low and were overwashed by tsunami waves, thereby failing to provide shelter for evacuees—a risk that had been underestimated.  相似文献   

9.
This paper investigates the suitability of a three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) Weibull distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. The performance is also compared with two other popular models from same Weibull family, namely the two-parameter Weibull model and the inverse Weibull model. A complete and homogeneous earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) of 20 events (M ≥ 7.0), spanning the period 1846 to 1995 from north–east India and its surrounding region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E), is used to perform this study. The model parameters are initially estimated from graphical plots and later confirmed from statistical estimations such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MoM). The asymptotic variance–covariance matrix for the MLE estimated parameters is further calculated on the basis of the Fisher information matrix (FIM). The model suitability is appraised using different statistical goodness-of-fit tests. For the study area, the estimated conditional probability for an earthquake within a decade comes out to be very high (≥0.90) for an elapsed time of 18 years (i.e., 2013). The study also reveals that the use of location parameter provides more flexibility to the three-parameter Weibull model in comparison to the two-parameter Weibull model. Therefore, it is suggested that three-parameter Weibull model has high importance in empirical modeling of earthquake recurrence and seismic hazard assessment.  相似文献   

10.
The tsunami event generated by the great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 was simulated with the recently developed model TsunAWI. The model is based on the finite element method, which allows for a very flexible discretization of the model domain. This is demonstrated by a triangulation of the whole Indian Ocean with a resolution of about 14 km in the deep ocean but a considerably higher resolution of about 500 m in the coastal area. A special focus is put on the Banda Aceh region in the Northern tip of Sumatra. This area was heavily hit by the tsunami and the highest resolution in this area is about 40 m in order to include inundation processes in the model simulation. We compare model results to tide gauge data from all around the Indian Ocean, to satellite altimetry, and field measurements of flow depth in selected locations of the Aceh region. Furthermore, we compare the model results of TsunAWI to the results of a nested grid model (TUNAMI-N3) with the same initial conditions and identical bathymetry and topography in the Aceh region. It turns out that TsunAWI gives accurate estimates of arrival times in distant locations and in the same mesh gives good inundation results when compared to field measurements and nested grid results.  相似文献   

11.
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the United States began a careful review and strengthening of its programs aimed at reducing the consequences of tsunamis. Several reports and calls to action were drafted, including the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109–424) signed into law by the President in December 2006. NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology (WDC-GMG) maintain a national and international tsunami data archive that fulfills part of the P.L. 109-424. The NGDC/WDC-GMG long-term tsunami data archive has expanded from the original global historical event databases and damage photo collection, to include tsunami deposits, coastal water-level data, DART? buoy data, and high-resolution coastal DEMs. These data are used to validate models, provide guidance to warning centers, develop tsunami hazard assessments, and educate the public about the risks from tsunamis. In this paper we discuss current steps and future actions to be taken by NGDC/WDC-GMG to support tsunami hazard mitigation research, to ultimately help save lives and improve the resiliency of coastal communities.  相似文献   

12.
—Whereas the coast of Peru south of 10°S is historically accustomed to tsunamigenic earthquakes, the subduction zone north of 10°S has been relatively quiet. On 21 February 1996 at 21:51 GMT (07:51 local time) a large, tsunamigenic earthquake (Harvard estimate M w = 7.5) struck at 9.6°S, 79.6°W, approximately 130 km off the northern coast of Peru, north of the intersection of the Mendaña fracture zone with the Peru–Chile trench. The likely mechanism inferred from seismic data is a low-angle thrust consistent with subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the South American plate, with relatively slow rupture characteristics. Approximately one hour after the main shock, a damaging tsunami reached the Peruvian coast, resulting in twelve deaths. We report survey measurements, from 7.7°S to 11°S, on maximum runup (2–5m, between 8 and 10°S), maximum inundation distances, which exceeded 500 m, and tsunami sediment deposition patterns. Observations and numerical simulations show that the hydrodynamic characteristics of this event resemble those of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami. Differences in climate, vegetation and population make these two tsunamis seem more different than they were. This 1996 Chimbote event was the first large (M w >7) subduction-zone (interplate) earthquake between about 8 and 10°S, in Peru, since the 17th century, and bears resemblance to the 1960 (M w 7.6) event at 6.8°S. Together these two events are apparently the only large subduction-zone earthquakes in northern Peru since 1619 (est. latitude 8°S, est. M w 7.8); these two tsunamis also each produced more fatalities than any other tsunami in Peru since the 18th century. We concur with Pelayo and Wiens (1990, 1992) that this subduction zone, in northern Peru, resembles others where the subduction zone is only weakly coupled, and convergence is largely aseismic. Subduction-zone earthquakes, when they occur, are slow, commonly shallow, and originate far from shore (near the tip of the wedge). Thus they are weakly felt, and the ensuing tsunamis are unanticipated by local populations. Although perhaps a borderline case, the Chimbote tsunami clearly is another wake-up example of a "tsunami earthquake."  相似文献   

13.
We studied two tsunamis from 2012, one generated by the El Salvador earthquake of 27 August (Mw 7.3) and the other generated by the Philippines earthquake of 31 August (Mw 7.6), using sea level data analysis and numerical modeling. For the El Salvador tsunami, the largest wave height was observed in Baltra, Galapagos Islands (71.1 cm) located about 1,400 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 9 and 19 min. Numerical modeling indicated that most of the tsunami energy was directed towards the Galapagos Islands, explaining the relatively large wave height there. For the Philippines tsunami, the maximum wave height of 30.5 cm was observed at Kushimoto in Japan located about 2,700 km away from the source. The tsunami governing periods were around 8, 12 and 29 min. Numerical modeling showed that a significant part of the far-field tsunami energy was directed towards the southern coast of Japan. Fourier and wavelet analyses as well as numerical modeling suggested that the dominant period of the first wave at stations normal to the fault strike is related to the fault width, while the period of the first wave at stations in the direction of fault strike is representative of the fault length.  相似文献   

14.
We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation.  相似文献   

15.
The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the northwest coast of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean generated a catastrophic tsunami that was recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the World Ocean. Part 1 of our study of this event examines tide gauge measurements from the Indian Ocean region, at sites located from a few hundred to several thousand kilometers from the source area. Statistical characteristics of the tsunami waves, including wave height, duration, and arrival time, are determined, along with spectral properties of the tsunami records.  相似文献   

16.
Sumatra tsunami: lessons from modeling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The need for the combination of seismic data with real-time wave height information for an effective prediction of tsunami impact is emphasized in the paper. A preliminary, but comprehensive study of arrival times, wave heights and run-up values at a number of locations and tide gage stations throughout the Indian Ocean seaboard is presented. Open ocean wave height data from satellite observations are analyzed and used in the reconstruction of a tsunami source mechanism for the December 26, 2004 event. The reconstructed source is then used to numerically estimate tsunami impact along the Indian Ocean seaboard, including wave height, and arrival times at 12 tide gage stations, and inundation at 3 locations on the coast of India. The December 2004, as well as the March 28, 2005 tsunamis are investigated and their differences in terms of tsunami generation are analyzed and presented as a clear example of the need for both, seismic and real-time tsunami data for a reliable tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

17.
Eighteen papers are included in Volume 1 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: case studies of earthquake-generated tsunamis; tsunami forecast and hazard assessments; and theoretical and computational modeling of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal behavior. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14?C16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.  相似文献   

18.
The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.  相似文献   

19.
This paper presents tsunami intensity mapping and damage patterns along the surveyed coast of Tamilnadu (India) of the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. The tsunami caused severe damage and claimed many victims in the coastal areas of eleven countries bordering the Indian Ocean. A twelve-stage tsunami intensity scale proposed by Papadopoulos and Imamura (2001) was followed to assign the intensity at the visited localities. Along the coast of the Indian mainland, tsunami damage sustained exclusively. Most severe damage was observed in Nagapattinam Beach, Nabiyarnagar, Vellaipalyam, and the Nagapattinam Port of Nagapattinum District on the east coast and Keelamanakudy village of Kanyakumari District on the western coast of Tamilnadu. The maximum assigned tsunami intensity was X+ at these localities. Minimum intensity V+ was received along the coast of Thanjavur, Puddukkotai and Ramnathpuram Districts in Palk Strait. The general observation reported by many people was that the first arrival was a tsunami crest. The largest tsunami waves were first arrivals on the eastern coast and the second arrivals on the western coast. Along the coast, people were unaware of the tsunami, and no anomalous behavior of ocean animals was reported. Good correlation was observed between the severity of damage and the presence of shadow zone of Sri Lanka, reflected waves from Sri Lanka and the Maldives Islands, variation in the width of the continental shelf, elevation of the coast and the presence of breakwaters. The presence of medu (naturally elevated landmass very close to the sea shore and elongated parallel to the coast) reduced the impact of the tsunami on the built environment.  相似文献   

20.
The effect of distributed coseismic slip on progressive, near-field edge waves is examined for continental shelf tsunamis. Detailed observations of edge waves are difficult to separate from the other tsunami phases that are observed on tide gauge records. In this study, analytic methods are used to compute tsunami edge waves distributed over a finite number of modes and for uniformly sloping bathymetry. Coseismic displacements from static elastic theory are introduced as initial conditions in calculating the evolution of progressive edge-waves. Both simple crack representations (constant stress drop) and stochastic slip models (heterogeneous stress drop) are tested on a fault with geometry similar to that of the M w = 8.8 2010 Chile earthquake. Crack-like ruptures that are beneath or that span the shoreline result in similar longshore patterns of maximum edge-wave amplitude. Ruptures located farther offshore result in reduced edge-wave excitation, consistent with previous studies. Introduction of stress-drop heterogeneity by way of stochastic slip models results in significantly more variability in longshore edge-wave patterns compared to crack-like ruptures for the same offshore source position. In some cases, regions of high slip that are spatially distinct will yield sub-events, in terms of tsunami generation. Constructive interference of both non-trapped and trapped waves can yield significantly larger tsunamis than those that produced by simple earthquake characterizations.  相似文献   

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