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1.
H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331
The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein
as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure,
reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of
the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty
introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the
essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic
input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.
Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable,
consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify
the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables.
As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of
frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996 相似文献
2.
《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》1999,17(1-2):247-254
Limited well control, great distances from age-equivalent producing fields, and a largely unknown stratigraphy necessitated use of sequence stratigraphic methods to assess exploration risk associated with reservoir, source and seal distribution in the Mobil-operated Deep-water Blocks of Sarawak, Malaysia. These methods allowed predictions to be made and reservoir risks to be halved in each of the locations drilled in 1995. Predictions regarding reservoir and stratigraphy proved correct, as the Mulu-1 and Bako-1 wells penetrated numerous high-quality, thick sandstone reservoirs in the Middle to Lower Miocene section. Shallow marine sandstones dominate the vertical succession in both wells, with characteristic aggradational, upward-coarsening log motifs. Cores display classic wave-generated stratification and hummocky cross-bedding. Evidence, such as marginal–marine to neritic microfauna in cuttings of both wells, supports these interpretations. Lack of hydrocarbon charge in the two wells may be due to their position relative to coaly hydrocarbon source beds. These prospects have high trap and seal integrity, being well defined on seismics as high relief horst blocks covered by a very thick shale-prone section. The Mulu-1 well, for example, is located at least 20–30 km down stratigraphic dip from mapped coeval lower coastal-plain deposits. Amplitude anomalies on the flank of the Mulu horst are probably derived from transported organics buried in deep Plio–Pleistocene kitchens in the northwest portion of the Mobil blocks. Remaining potential of mapped prospects is high and efforts continue at characterizing the petroleum system of the Deep-water Blocks. Seismic attribute and interval velocity analyses provide new clues to the location of probable coaly source rocks, especially when viewed in their regional and sequence stratigraphic context. Future work is planned and will serve to reduce risk to acceptable levels and support further drilling in this prospective hydrocarbon province. 相似文献
3.
A Report on a Biotite-Calcic Hornblende Geothermometer 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
WU Chunming PAN Yusheng WANG Kaiyi ZHANG Jian Institute of Geology Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences Beijing Institute of Geology Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing Department of Earth Sciences The Graduate School Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 《《地质学报》英文版》2002,76(1):126-131
This paper presents a biotite-calcic hornblende geothermometer which was empirically calibrated based on the gamet-biotite geothermometer and the gamet-plagioclase-hornblende-quartz geobarometer, in the ranges of 560-800℃ (T) and 0.26-1.4 GPa (P) using the data of metadolerite, amphibolite, metagabbro, and metapelite collected from the literature. Biotite was treated as symmetric Fe-Mg-AlVI-Ti quaternary solid solution, and calcic hornblende was simplified as symmetric Fe-Mg binary solid solution. The resulting thermometer may rebuild the input garnet-biotite temperatures well within an uncertainty of ±50℃. Errors of ±0.2 GPa for input pressure, along with analytical errors of ?% for the relevant mineral compositions, may lead to a random error of ±16℃ for this thermometer, so that the thermometer is almost independent of pressure estimates. The thermometer may clearly discriminate different rocks of lower amphibolite, upper amphibolite and granulite facies on a high confidence level. It is assume 相似文献
4.
M. G. Ogurtsov 《Astronomy Reports》2005,49(6):495-499
Decade-averaged Wolf numbers are reconstructed for the time interval 8005 B.C.–1945 A.D. using radiocarbon data derived from tree rings. Comparisons of other paleoastrophysical reconstructions of solar activity with this temporal series verify its validity and reliability. A prediction of the mean solar activity for the next forty years is made using these reconstructed Wolf numbers. It is likely that the mean solar activity during 2005–2045 will be lower than the activity of recent decades. This conclusion is compared with the long-term predictions proposed by other researchers. The prospects for paleoastrophysical predictions for the long-term variations of solar activity in the future are discussed. 相似文献
5.
腐殖煤干酪根裂解气主生气成熟度上限探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
烃源岩主生气成熟度上限的确定对含气盆地天然气资源量评价和主生气阶段的确定具有重要的意义。对不同成熟度的15个腐殖煤样开展了生气热解实验和氢、碳、氧元素含量测定,生气热解实验是在800℃高温下进行,结果表明低成熟度煤总产气率最高,随着成熟度的增加,产气率逐渐降低,在Ro为0.6%~2.3%范围内的煤产气率降低幅度很大,从61m3/吨.TOC降到11m3/吨.TOC,在Ro达到2.3%之后煤产气率很低,随着成熟度的增加,产气率缓慢降低。不同成熟度煤的H/C值也呈现相似的变化规律,在Ro<2.3%的煤中,H/C值随成熟度的增加快速降低,在此之后,H/C值缓慢降低,因此,认为Ro=2.3%为腐殖煤的干酪根裂解气主生气成熟度上限。 相似文献
6.
River flow is a complex dynamic system of hydraulic and sediment transport. Bed load transport have a dynamic nature in gravel bed rivers and because of the complexity of the phenomenon include uncertainties in predictions. In the present paper, two methods based on the Artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) are developed by using 360 data points. Totally, 21 different combination of input parameters are used for predicting bed load transport in gravel bed rivers. In order to acquire reliable data subsets of training and testing, subset selection of maximum dissimilarity (SSMD) method, rather than classical trial and error method, is used in finding randomly manipulation of these subsets. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of ANN and ANFIS models are determined using Monte Carlo simulation. Two uncertainty indices of d factor and 95% prediction uncertainty and uncertainty bounds in comparison with observed values show that these models have relatively large uncertainties in bed load predictions and using of them in practical problems requires considerable effort on training and developing processes. Results indicated that ANFIS and ANN are suitable models for predicting bed load transport; but there are many uncertainties in determination of bed load transport by ANFIS and ANN, especially for high sediment loads. Based on the predictions and confidence intervals, the superiority of ANFIS to those of ANN is proved. 相似文献
7.
LI Wendu ZHANG Pengyuan JIANG Fujie ZHANG Yunxian HUANG Rend XU Tianwu ZHOU Yongshui LI Longlong JIANG Wenli 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(4):1260-1278
The Dongpu Depression is a secondary salt-bearing tectonic unit in the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China. The depositional environment of this depression regarding its Paleogene strata is clearly different in plane, including the saltwater environment(SE) in the north, the freshwater environment(FE) in the south and the brackish water environment(BE) in the middle. The result of oil and gas exploration in the Dongpu Depression shows that more than 90% of the proven oil reserves are distributed in the northern saltwater environment. Previous studies indicate that the organic geochemistry characteristics and the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks are very clearly diverse under different environments, which results in the significant differences in the proved reserves between the north and the south. In order to further explore the differences in the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks under distinct depositional environments and the mechanism of their occurrence, three samples from different depositional environments(W18-5 for SE, H7-18 for BE, CH9 for FE) were used for confined gold tube pyrolysis experiments. The results show that the CH4 yields of W18-5, H7-18 and CH9 increase with increasing temperature, the maximum yields being 405.62 mg/g TOC, 388.56 mg/g TOC and 367.89 mg/g TOC, respectively. The liquid hydrocarbon yields of W18-5, H7-18 and CH9 firstly increase with increasing temperature and then decrease after the critical temperatures. The maximum yields of C6-14 are 149.54 mg/g TOC, 140.18 mg/g TOC and 116.94 mg/g TOC, the maximum yields of C14+ being 852.4 mg/g TOC, 652.6 mg/g TOC and 596.41 mg/g TOC, respectively for W18-5, H7-18 and CH9. To summarize, the order of hydrocarbon potential from high to low is W18-5, H7-18 and CH9. On this basis, through analyzing the influencing factors of hydrocarbon differences, this paper reveals that the saltwater environment is characterized by 4 factors: higher salinity, halophilic algae, high paleo-productivity and a strongly reducing environment, which are beneficial to the enrichment of organic matter and lead to the formation of high levels of sapropelite and exinite. According to the variation of oil and gas components in the pyrolysis experiments, the hydrocarbon generation process is divided into three stages: kerogen cracking, oil cracking and C2-5 cracking. Combined with hydrocarbon generation characteristics and stages, the evolutionary model of hydrocarbon generation for source rocks under different environments is established. 相似文献
8.
Steven B. Meyerhoff Reed M. Maxwell Wendy D. Graham John L. Williams III 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(6):1329-1343
Subsurface heterogeneity is one of the largest sources of uncertainty associated with saturated hydraulic conductivity. Recent work has demonstrated that uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity can impart significant uncertainty in runoff generation processes and surface-water flow. Here, the role of site characterization in reducing hydrograph prediction bias and uncertainty is demonstrated. A fully integrated hydrologic model is used to conduct two sets of stochastic, transient simulation experiments comprising different overland flow mechanisms: Dunne and Hortonian. Conditioning hydraulic conductivity fields using values drawn from a simulated synthetic control case are shown to reduce both mean bias and variance in an ensemble of conditional hydrograph predictions when compared with the control case. The ensemble simulations show a greater reduction in uncertainty in the hydrographs for Hortonian flow. The conditional simulations predict surface ponding and surface pressure distributions with reduced mean error and reduced root mean square error compared with unconditional simulations. Uncertainty reduction in Hortonian and Dunne flow cases demonstrates different temporal signals, with more substantial reduction achieved for Hortonian flow. 相似文献
9.
Machine-learning-based modeling of coarse-scale error,with application to uncertainty quantification
The use of upscaled models is attractive in many-query applications that require a large number of simulation runs, such as uncertainty quantification and optimization. Highly coarsened models often display error in output quantities of interest, e.g., phase production and injection rates, so the direct use of these results for quantitative evaluations and decision making may not be appropriate. In this work, we introduce a machine-learning-based post-processing framework for modeling the error in coarse-model results in the context of uncertainty quantification. Coarse-scale models are constructed using an accurate global single-phase transmissibility upscaling procedure. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression (random forest in this work) to model error based on a number of error indicators or features. Many of these features are derived from approximations of the subgrid effects neglected in the coarse-scale saturation equation. These features are identified through volume averaging, and they are generated by solving a fine-scale saturation equation with a constant-in-time velocity field. Our approach eliminates the need for the user to hand-design a small number of informative (relevant) features. The training step requires the simulation of some number of fine and coarse models (in this work we perform either 10 or 30 training simulations), followed by construction of a regression model for each well. Classification is also applied for production wells. The methodology then provides a correction at each time step, and for each well, in the phase production and injection rates. Results are presented for two- and three-dimensional oil–water systems. The corrected coarse-scale solutions show significantly better accuracy than the uncorrected solutions, both in terms of realization-by-realization predictions for oil and water production rates, and for statistical quantities important for uncertainty quantification, such as P10, P50, and P90 predictions. 相似文献
10.
Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track prediction has been assessed. Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with 30-km resolution was used to make 5-day simulation of the movement of Orissa super cyclone (1999), one of the most intense tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. Altogether 36 ensemble members with all possible combinations of three cumulus convection, two planetary boundary layer and six cloud microphysics parameterization schemes were produced. A comparison of individual members indicated that Kain–Fritsch cumulus convection scheme, Mellor–Yamada–Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and Purdue Lin cloud microphysics scheme showed better performance. The best possible ensemble formulation is identified based on SPREAD and root mean square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most of the ensemble predictions show significant betterment with mean errors less than 130 km up to 120 h. The convection ensembles had large spread of the cluster, and boundary layer ensembles had significant error disparity, indicating their important roles in the movement of tropical cyclones. Six-member ensemble predictions with cloud microphysics schemes of LIN, WSM5, and WSM6 produce the best predictions with least of RMSE, and large SPREAD indicates the need for inclusion of all possible hydrometeors in the simulation and that six-member ensemble is sufficient to produce the best ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone tracks over Bay of Bengal. 相似文献
11.
An investigation is given of sensitivity analysis, synthetic tests, and application to geological conditions of an inverse kinetic model for residual kerogen analysis. Using kinetic parameters derived from different experimental data a sensitivity analysis study allows a discussion of the discrepancies in predictions of kerogen degradation rates and cumulative amounts of kerogen degraded with temperature, time, and depth of sediments. The synthetic tests and the application examine the applicability to different geological conditions and the uncertainty in predictions of hydrocarbon generation. The study shows that when average values of the kinetic parameters derived from different experimental conditions and samples are used under geological conditions, the modeled kerogen degradation rates and cumulative amount of kerogen degraded are uncertain by about 25°C in temperature, 12.5 My in time and 600 m in depth. 相似文献
12.
Uncertainty quantification for geomechanical and reservoir predictions is in general a computationally intensive problem, especially if a direct Monte Carlo approach with large numbers of full-physics simulations is used. A common solution to this problem, well-known for the fluid flow simulations, is the adoption of surrogate modeling approximating the physical behavior with respect to variations in uncertain parameters. The objective of this work is the quantification of such uncertainty both within geomechanical predictions and fluid-flow predictions using a specific surrogate modeling technique, which is based on a functional approach. The methodology realizes an approximation of full-physics simulated outputs that are varying in time and space when uncertainty parameters are changed, particularly important for the prediction of uncertainty in vertical displacement resulting from geomechanical modeling. The developed methodology has been applied both to a subsidence uncertainty quantification example and to a real reservoir forecast risk assessment. The surrogate quality obtained with these applications confirms that the proposed method makes it possible to perform reliable time–space varying dependent risk assessment with a low computational cost, provided the uncertainty space is low-dimensional. 相似文献
13.
14.
短期气候预测的可预报性与不确定性 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
分析总结了近年来国内外短期气候预测业务、预测试验研究及可预报性研究的成果。指出无论用大气环流模式（AGAM）还是用统计方法,月平均环流预报与观测实况的相关系数均在0.2～0.3之间。用统计方法所作的气温预报水平与之相当,降水预报水平还要略低一些。季度预报大多依靠统计方法。近年来我国汛期降水预报水平有明显提高,但也只相当于相关系数0.2～0.3。用耦合环流模式（CGCM）积分作季度预报仅仅才开始试验。用各种模式作ENSO预报时表现出一定技巧,预报时效可达半年以上,但仍有春季预报障碍等问题。短期内气候预测业务可能仍然以统计方法为主。但必须大力开展气候系统机理的研究,并建立相应的模式。不了解气候变率形成的物理机制, 短期气候预测水平不可能有显著提高。 相似文献
15.
Suman Goyal Ashish Kumar M Mohapatra L S Rathore S K Dube Rahul Saxena R K Giri 《Journal of Earth System Science》2017,126(6):79
India experiences severe thunderstorms during the months, March–June. But these systems are not predicted well, mainly due to the absence of mesoscale observational network over Indian region and the expert system. As these are short lived systems, the nowcast is attempted worldwide based on satellite and radar observations. Due to inadequate radar network, satellite plays the dominant role for nowcast of these thunderstorms. In this study, a nowcast based algorithm ForTracc developed by Vila et al. (Weather Forecast 23:233–245, 2008) has been examined over the Indian region using Infrared Channel \((10.8~\upmu \hbox {m})\) of INSAT-3D for prediction of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In this technique, the current location and intensity in terms of Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) of the MCS are extrapolated. The purpose of this study is to validate this satellite-based nowcasting technique for Convective Cloud Clusters that helps in optimum utilization of satellite data and improve the nowcasting. The model could predict reasonably the minimum CTBT of the convective cell with average absolute error (AAE) of \({<}7\hbox { K}\) for different lead periods (30–180 min). However, it was underestimated for all the lead periods of forecasts. The AAE in the forecasts of size of the cluster varies from about \(3\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 30-min forecast to \(7\times 10^{4}\hbox { km}^{2}\) for 120-min forecast. The mean absolute error in prediction of size is above 31–38% of actual size for different lead periods of forecasts from 30 to 180 min. There is over estimation in prediction of size for 30 and 60 min forecasts (17% and 2.6% of actual size of the cluster, respectively) and underestimation in 90 to 180-min forecasts (–2.4% to –28%). The direct position error (DPE) based on the location of minimum CTBT ranges from 70 to 144 km for 30–180-min forecast respectively. 相似文献
16.
Thermodynamic calculations in petrology are generally performed at pressures and temperatures beyond the standard state conditions. Accurate prediction of mineral equilibria therefore requires knowledge of the heat capacity, thermal expansion and compressibility for the minerals involved. Unfortunately, such data are not always available. In this contribution we present a data set to estimate the heat capacity, thermal expansion and compressibility of mineral end‐members from their constituent polyhedra, based on the premise that the thermodynamic properties of minerals can be described by a linear combination of the fractional properties of their constituents. As such, only the crystallography of the phase of interest needs to be known. This approach is especially powerful for hypothetical mineral end‐members and for minerals, for which the experimental determination of their thermodynamic properties is difficult. The data set consists of the properties for 35 polyhedra in the system K–Na–Ca–Li–Be–Mg–Mn–Fe–Co–Ni–Zn–Al–Ti–Si–H, determined by multiple linear regression analysis on a data set of 111 published end‐member thermodynamic properties. The large number of polyhedra determined allows calculation of a much larger variety of phases than was previously possible, and the choice of constituents together with the large number of thermodynamic input data results in estimates with associated uncertainty of generally <5%. The quality of the data appears to be sufficiently accurate for thermodynamic modelling as demonstrated by modelling the stability of margarite in the CASH system and the position of the talc–staurolite–chloritoid–pyrope absent invariant point in the KMASH system. In both cases, our results overlap within error with published equivalents. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of widely used methods to derive depositional ages from detrital zircon populations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The calculation of a maximum depositional age(MDA)from a detrital zircon sample can provide insight into a variety of geological problems.However,the impact of sample size and calculation method on the accuracy of a resulting MDA has not been evaluated.We use large populations of synthetic zircon dates(N≈25,000)to analyze the impact of varying sample size(n),measurement uncertainty,and the abundance of neardepositional-age zircons on the accuracy and uncertainty of 9 commonly used MDA calculation methods.Furthermore,a new method,the youngest statistical population is tested.For each method,500 samples of n synthetic dates were drawn from the parent population and MDAs were calculated.The mean and standard deviation of each method ove r the 500 trials at each n-value(50-1000,in increments of 50)were compa red to the known depositional age of the synthetic population and used to compare the methods quantitatively in two simulation scenarios.The first simulation scenario varied the proportion of near-depositional-age grains in the synthetic population.The second scenario varied the uncertainty of the dates used to calculate the MDAs.Increasing sample size initially decreased the mean residual error and standard deviation calculated by each method.At higher n-values(>~300 grains),calculated MDAs changed more slowly and the mean resid ual error increased or decreased depending on the method used.Increasing the p roportion of near-depositional-age grains and lowering measurement uncertainty decreased the number of measurements required for the calculated MDAs to stabilize and decreased the standard deviation in calculated MDAs of the 500 samples.Results of the two simulation scenarios show that the most successful way to increase the accuracy of a calculated M DA is by acquiring a large number of low-uncertainty measurements(300300)approach is used if the calculation of accurate MDAs are key to research goals.Other acquisition method s,such as high-to moderate-precision measurement methods(e.g.,1%-5%,2σ)acquiring low-to moderate-n datasets(50300).Additionally,they are most susceptible to producing erroneous MDAs due to contamination in the field or laboratory,or through disturbances of the youngest zircon’s U-Pb systematics(e.g.,lead loss).More conservative methods that still produce accurate MDAs and are less susceptible to contamination or lead loss include:youngest grain cluster at 1σunce rtainty(YGC 1σ),youngest grain clusterat 2σuncertainty(YGC 2σ),and youngest statistical population(YSP).The ages calculated by these methods may be more useful and appealing when fitting calculated MDAs in to pre-existing chronostratigraphic frameworks,as they are less likely to be younger than the true depositional age.From the results of our numerical models we illustrate what geologic processes(i.e.,tectonic or sedimentary)can be resolved using MDAs derived from strata of different ages. 相似文献
18.
In this study, a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) based lead seven days minimum and maximum surface air temperature prediction system is modelled for station Chennai, India. To emphasize the effectiveness of the proposed system, comparison is made with the models created using statistical learning technique Support Vector Machine Regression (SVMr). The analysis highlights that prediction accuracy of MARS models for minimum temperature forecast are promising for short term forecast (lead days 1 to 3) with mean absolute error (MAE) less than 1 °C and the prediction efficiency and skill degrades in medium term forecast (lead days 4 to 7) with slightly above 1 °C. The MAE of maximum temperature is little higher than minimum temperature forecast varying from 0.87 °C for day-one to 1.27 °C for lag day-seven with MARS approach. The statistical error analysis emphasizes that MARS models perform well with an average 0.2 °C of reduction in MAE over SVMr models for all ahead seven days and provide significant guidance for the prediction of temperature event. The study also suggests that the correlation between the atmospheric parameters used as predictors and the temperature event decreases as the lag increases with both approaches. 相似文献
19.
An analytical procedure has been developed for the in situ measurement of carbon isotope composition of organic matter, with a spatial resolution of 20-30 μm, using a Cameca IMS 1270 ion microprobe. Instrumental mass fractionation (IMF) of carbon isotopes was observed to be independent of primary ion beam intensity and sputtering time, but did depend on vacuum conditions and on the chemical composition of the sample. To evaluate such “matrix effects”, a set of 9 standards representative of the natural chemical variability of organic matter was prepared, with H/C atomic ratios and organic carbon contents (Corg) ranging between 0.04 and 1.74 and between 41 and 100 wt.%, respectively. Under the analytical conditions tested, IMF was not found to be influenced by the presence of silicate mineral impurities in the organic matter, but variations in IMF up to 5‰ were observed over the set of standards with the magnitude of IMF negatively correlated to the H/C ratios of samples. Aliphaticity ratios determined using Fourier transform infrared microspectroscopy provided an in situ estimation of H/C ratios with a spatial resolution barely exceeding that of the ion microprobe and permit a correction for matrix effects with a standard error of ± 0.2‰ (1σ). Taking into account all sources of uncertainty, ion microprobe δ13C were accurately determined with a ± 0.7‰ (1σ) total uncertainty. The mechanism for the matrix effect of H/C ratios upon IMF is still to be determined but it is likely related to the difference in proportion of atomic vs. molecular carbon ions observed between samples of different H/C ratios. 相似文献