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1.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):391-400
The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer. We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue. 相似文献
2.
Mabel C. Marulanda Omar D. Cardona Miguel G. Mora Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2071-2088
Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are probabilistic metrics useful for risk analyses, for designing strategies for risk reduction and mitigation, for emergency response strategies and for risk financing. This article presents, based on probabilistic risk models, the design and implementation of a risk transfer instrument to cover the private buildings of the city of Manizales, Colombia. This voluntary collective instrument provides financial protection to both, the estate tax payers and the low-income homeowners through a cross-subsidy strategy; besides, it promotes not only the insurance culture but also the solidarity of the community. The city administration and the insurance industry are promoting this program using the mechanism of the property tax payment. This collective insurance helps the government to access key resources for low-income householders recovery and improve disaster risk management at local level. 相似文献
3.
ZHANG Huai SHI Yaolin WU Zhongliang Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing China 《《地质学报》英文版》2009,83(4)
Recent rapid progress in cyberinfrastructure in geosciences is providing seismologists an enormous boost for addressing multi-physical phenomena of regional seismic activities.The inherent nature of their multi-scale properties,from temporal to spatial spaces,makes it inevitably to be solved using large-scale computations and distributed parallel data processing schemes.Under such circumstance,using the advanced numerical algorithms and unstructured mesh generation technologies become the obstacles for m... 相似文献
4.
Abstract: Recent rapid progress in cyberinfrastructure in geosciences is providing seismologists an enormous boost for addressing multi-physical phenomena of regional seismic activities. The inherent nature of their multi-scale properties, from temporal to spatial spaces, makes it inevitably to be solved using large-scale computations and distributed parallel data processing schemes. Under such circumstance, using the advanced numerical algorithms and unstructured mesh generation technologies become the obstacles for modern seismologists. The main objective of this paper is to present a framework, which includes a parallel finite element simulation and distributed data infrastructure, to address the novel algorithms, state-of-the-art modeling and their implementation in regional seismicgenic systems. We also discuss and implement this framework to analyze the strong earthquake evolution processes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. This study is the key to long-term seismic risk by estimates, providing a platform for predictive large-scale numerical simulation modeling of regional earthquake activities. 相似文献
5.
In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies. 相似文献
6.
One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations. 相似文献
7.
Ivan Petiteville 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(1):203-207
The impacts of disaster events such as earthquakes on economic and human lives are increasing every year, in particular due to the growing urbanization. Until recently, stakeholders involved in disaster risk management focused their efforts mainly on the response phase, immediately after the crisis. Following the recommendations of several recent studies and in order to minimize the increasing impacts of natural disasters, decision-makers and major stakeholders have showed an increasing interest in mitigation activities. Earth Observation (EO) data from space could bring a significant added value to the various phases of the seismic risk management cycle from the mitigation and preparedness phases. Space agencies need to better contribute to the management of geohazards in response to the growing request from the community of users (e.g. seismologists, insurance companies, urban planners). To foster the use of EO remote sensing data, satellite data providers have to take the appropriate measures to remove the policy and technical barriers related to the data access. They have also to increase the awareness of the community of users on the potential benefits that could be gained from the use of EO satellite data. This paper will provide examples of areas where EO remote sensing data from space could bring an added value to the current management of risks and crisis related to earthquakes. Then, the paper will describe the strategic measures undertaken by the European Space Agency in an international framework, to foster the use of satellite data by the various relevant stakeholders. 相似文献
8.
关于边坡工程保险的探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从边坡工程参加保险少的原因剖析出发,结合边坡工程自身的特性论述了边坡工程保险的可行性。然后从边坡工程保险实施的角度,基于边坡的可靠性分析和经济风险分析,通过一定显著性水平下的区间估计得出了保险费率的表达式。最后简要介绍了边坡工程保险的程序。 相似文献
9.
Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multi spatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development. 相似文献
10.
An integrated framework for disaster risk management is presented to cope with the risk of low-probability high-consequence
(LPHC) disasters in urban communities. Since the 2000 Tokai flood in Japan, there has been a shift in the management strategy
from disaster prevention with a presumed zero risk to disaster reduction with an acceptable risk. The framework consists of:
(i) integration of a different categories of risk reduction options in terms of structural and nonstructural measures, regulation
and market-oriented measures, (ii) strengthening of the capacity of local communities to make their own management choices
for LPHC-type disaster risks, and (iii) promoting the participation of stakeholders throughout the entire cycle of risk management.
The interdisciplinary framework is discussed with reference to lessons learned from two recent major flood disasters (the
2000 Tokai flood and the 2004 Niigata flood). To implement the goals of the integrated framework, a participatory platform
for disaster risk communication called “Pafrics” has been developed. Preliminary results of the pilot study of participation
and risk communication supported by Pafrics are presented. 相似文献
11.
Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation 总被引：7，自引：7，他引：0
The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the virtues of three different methods: the quantifiable conventional approach to risk; the taxonomic analysis of perceived risk; and the analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. This combination of methods is applied to the case study ‘Ebro Delta’ in Spain as part of the European sixth framework project ‘Floodsite’. First, a typology for flood hazards is developed based on individual and/or stakeholders’ judgements. Awareness, worry and preparedness are the three characteristics that typify a community to reflect various levels of ignorance, perceived security, perceived control or desired risk reduction. Applying ‘worry’ as the central characteristic, a trade-off is hypothesized between Worry and the benefits groups in society receive from a risky situation. Second, this trade-off is applied in Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA). MCA is the vehicle that often accompanies participatory processes, where governmental bodies have to decide on issues in which local stakeholders have a say. By using risk perception-scores as weights in a standard MCA procedure a new decision framework for risk assessment is developed. Finally, the case of sea-level rise in the Ebro Delta in Spain serves as an illustration of the applied methodology. Risk perception information has been collected with help of an on-site survey. Risk perception enters the multi-criteria analysis as complementary weights for the criteria risk and benefit. The results of the survey are applied to a set of scenarios representing both sea-level rise and land subsidence for a time span of 50 years. Land use alternatives have been presented to stakeholders in order to provide the regional decision maker with societal preferences for handling risk. Even with limited resources a characteristic ‘risk profile’ could be drawn that enables the decision maker to develop a suitable land use policy. 相似文献
12.
This paper is directed at providing an integrated framework that a regional authority should use when assessing the potential impacts of any policy initiative directed at improving groundwater quality. In particular, a policy model is developed relying on three decision components (a farm-level production decisions model, a household decisions model and a regional policy decision model) where the objective is one of identifying the trade-offs that a regional authority will be confronted with as it strives to balance the preferences of farmers and households while endeavoring to maximize net economic welfare. The basic rule developed indicates that the regional authority must choose a policy whereby any increase (decrease) in regional income is just equal to the decrease (increase) in net benefits to households.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the policies of the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the views of other U.S. Department of Agriculture staff members. 相似文献
13.
Meldrum James R. Brenkert-Smith Hannah Champ Patricia A. Gomez Jamie Byerly Hilary Falk Lilia Barth Christopher M. 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):2139-2161
Natural Hazards - Private landowners are important actors in landscape-level wildfire risk management. Accordingly, wildfire programs and policy encourage wildland–urban interface homeowners... 相似文献
14.
15.
A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model. 相似文献
16.
《Geoforum》2013
This paper uses the example of catastrophe bonds to investigate how exposures to geophysical, biological, and meteorological catastrophic events are constituted as securitizable and exchangeable financial risks in the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market. It discusses the techniques of catastrophe modeling as a pivotal mobile methodology for the calculation and creation of contingent assets out of the fabric of insured environmental and financial vulnerabilities. Catastrophe models are shown to enable economic exchange of contingent futures belonging to ontologically and geographically disparate orders. Pension funds are then introduced to illustrate how biological lives and retirement savings have become deeply entangled in the creation and extension of the ILS market. Pension funds are both major institutional investors in catastrophe bonds and also the principal sellers of “longevity risk” posed by pensioners. The extent to which labor both profits from and embodies securitized insurance risks illustrates the growing importance and ambivalence of contingency as a modality of accumulation and rule. 相似文献
17.
An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. 相似文献
18.
Around the globe, developing countries have reported different cases of successfully implemented Renewable Energy (RE) program supported by bilateral or multilateral funding. In developing countries subsidy has played a big role in RE program marketing and whether this will lead to sustainable development is yet to be determined. The adoption of implementation strategies that will support sustainable development and overcoming barriers that hinder expansion of Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) still remains as a big challenge to stakeholders involved in promotion of RE resources in developing countries. In this respect, developing countries need to re-examine their environmental policy for promotion of RETs in order to define its role in revitalization of their economies. This paper reviews the policy incentives for promotion of RETs in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Setting-up international collaborative business ventures between local industry in Iran and RE companies in developed countries is proposed as an implementation strategy that will appropriate diffusion of RETs in the country. An organizational framework that may help to attain this objective is discussed and a structural model for RE business partnership is presented. It is concluded that with appropriate policy formulations and strategies, RETs can bring about the required socio-economic development in Iran. 相似文献
19.
Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers. 相似文献
20.
Yacov Kedem 《Geoforum》1977,8(3):131-134
This paper proposes a framework for analyzing government incentive systems, prevalent in many countries, as a means of implementing national goals. The incentives are directed mainly to industry, services and individuals and are designed to modify the decision-making process of the firm or the individual. The major incentives used in Israel are discussed and the ahievement of various national goals, such as: increasing industrialization and population dispersal, are viewed according to data available on economic sectors in recent years. 相似文献