Attribution of long-term changes in peak river flows in Great Britain     

Aoibheann Brady  Julian Faraway  Ilaria Prosdocimi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1159-1170

ABSTRACT

We investigate the evidence for changes in the magnitude of peak river flows in Great Britain. We focus on a set of 117 near-natural “benchmark” catchments to detect trends not driven by land use and other human impacts, and aim to attribute trends in peak river flows to some climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) index. We propose modelling all stations together in a Bayesian multilevel framework to be better able to detect any signal that is present in the data by pooling information across several stations. This approach leads to the detection of a clear countrywide time trend. Additionally, in a univariate approach, both the EA and NAO indices appear to have a considerable association with peak river flows. When a multivariate approach is taken to unmask the collinearity between climate indices and time, the association between NAO and peak flows disappears, while the association with EA remains clear. This demonstrates the usefulness of a multivariate and multilevel approach when it comes to accurately attributing trends in peak river flows.  相似文献   

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran          下载免费PDF全文

Hossein Tabari  Hirad Abghari  Parisa Hosseinzadeh Talaee 《水文研究》2014,28(15):4411-4418

The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation     

Václav Bucha 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2014,58(3):461-472

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the prominent pattern of winter climate variability that has a strong effect on weather in the North Atlantic region and the adjacent continents. At present, uncertainty prevails as to the mechanisms controlling the variability of the NAO. It is also difficult to explain why the positive phase of the NAO has prevailed over the past 37 years (1972–2008). We found high positive correlation coefficients between geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind intensity) and the NAO indices that equal 0.76 for 1962–1994 and 0.63 for 1961–2011. Positive correlations of the distribution of surface air temperature with the NAO and similarly with geomagnetic activity occur in the Northern Hemisphere. These results encourage our search for possible causes controlling the NAO. We have found that at times of high geomagnetic activity the NAO index is positive and magnetic reconnection may enable the solar wind to initiate downward winds in the magnetosphere. Wind anomalies originate at the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and propagate downward through the troposphere taking part in the intensification of the vortex and of the westerlies. Stronger northerly winds over Greenland carry cold air southward and, together with the enhanced westerlies, advect the warm air from the Atlantic along the deep Icelandic low into Eurasia increasing temperatures there. On the other hand, at times of low geomagnetic activity, the NAO index is negative and the stratospheric polar vortex is weak. Warm air from the subtropics is carried into the Arctic and a rapid amplification of planetary waves propagating upward may cause displacement or even splitting of the weak vortex and sudden stratospheric warming. During this negative NAO phase the weakened westerlies allow more cold air to build up over North America and Eurasia.  相似文献   

Medium timescale stability of tidal mudflats in Bridgwater Bay,Bristol Channel,UK: Influence of tides,waves and climate     

Jason R. Kirby  Robert Kirby 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

This paper presents the results of an 11-year study into mudflat elevation changes within the intertidal zone at Stert Flats in Bridgwater Bay, Somerset. This site is located in the outer Severn Estuary/inner Bristol Channel which is a macro-hypertidal regime dominated by physical processes, characterized by strong tidal currents, high turbidity and a significant degree of exposure to wind generated waves. Two transects of stakes were installed perpendicular to the coast, extending seawards 300 m from the edge of the saltmarsh onto the mudflats, against which variations in accretion or erosion could be measured. The mudflats themselves consisted of an underlying consolidated clay of Holocene age and a surface veneer of fluid mud and/or mobile sand patches which varied both spatially and temporally. Mudflat development was recorded over both short-term (monthly/seasonal) and medium-term (inter-annual) timescales. The results display a significant degree of scatter over all timescales. Such variability in response may be expected in such a dynamic system where noise can be attributed to a combination of factors such as the mobility of surface fluid mud and sand patches and the migration of the underlying ridge–runnel drainage network. Despite this, the expected short-term variations related to neap–spring tidal conditions and seasonal influences were observed at a number of locations on the transects although these were weakly expressed. The over-riding feature of the profiles is a consistent long-term trend of erosion which appears to be masking shorter term trends within the dataset. Viewed over the 11-year period, the changes in mudflat elevation closely match the pattern of the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the 1990s, suggesting a strong climatic control over mudflat development on a medium-term/decadal scale. Most profiles display a strong erosional trend during the early 1990s when the NAO index was positive. The erosional trend peaked in 1995 at a time during which the values for monthly winter mean significant wave height were notably high. Between 1996 and 2001 the profiles generally record accretion and the data display significant variability. This corresponds with a shift to a strongly negative and then weakly positive NAO index phase. The fact that such a general atmospheric factor correlates so closely with medium timescale elevation change is attributed to relative weakness of biological binding and burrowing at this site, and more-so to the overwhelming dominance of the physical regime, especially the tidal current and the wind–wave regime. Both the background erosional trend and the influence of the index of the NAO in controlling mudflat evolution have important implications relating to coastal management. These are discussed in relation to coastal defence measures, morphological response to major civil engineering projects (e.g. Severn Tidal Power Barrage) and the prospect of climate change, sea-level rise and a possible increase in strength of NAO conditions in the future.  相似文献   

Developing a Complex Independent Component Analysis (CICA) Technique to Extract Non-stationary Patterns from Geophysical Time Series     

Ehsan Forootan  Jürgen Kusche  Matthieu Talpe  C. K. Shum  Michael Schmidt 《Surveys in Geophysics》2018,39(3):435-465

In recent decades, decomposition techniques have enabled increasingly more applications for dimension reduction, as well as extraction of additional information from geophysical time series. Traditionally, the principal component analysis (PCA)/empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and more recently the independent component analysis (ICA) have been applied to extract, statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated), and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of time series, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the autocovariance matrix and diagonalizing higher (than two) order statistical tensors from centered time series, respectively. However, the stationarity assumption in these techniques is not justified for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components, e.g., the commonly removed dominant seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a novel decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA), which can be applied to extract non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA, where (a) we first define a new complex dataset that contains the observed time series in its real part, and their Hilbert transformed series as its imaginary part, (b) an ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex dataset in (a), and finally, (c) the dominant independent complex modes are extracted and used to represent the dominant space and time amplitudes and associated phase propagation patterns. The performance of CICA is examined by analyzing synthetic data constructed from multiple physically meaningful modes in a simulation framework, with known truth. Next, global terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetry mission (2003–2016), and satellite radiometric sea surface temperature (SST) data (1982–2016) over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are used with the aim of demonstrating signal separations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). CICA results indicate that ENSO-related patterns can be extracted from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACE TWS) with an accuracy of 0.5–1 cm in terms of equivalent water height (EWH). The magnitude of errors in extracting NAO or AMO from SST data using the complex EOF (CEOF) approach reaches up to ~50% of the signal itself, while it is reduced to ~16% when applying CICA. Larger errors with magnitudes of ~100% and ~30% of the signal itself are found while separating ENSO from PDO using CEOF and CICA, respectively. We thus conclude that the CICA is more effective than CEOF in separating non-stationary patterns.  相似文献   

Relationship between zonal position of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Euro-Atlantic blocking events and its possible effect on the weather over Europe     

Yao Yao  DeHai Luo 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(11):2628-2636

The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.  相似文献   

Evaluating Duero's basin (Spain) response to the NAO phases: spatial and seasonal variability     

Enrique Morán‐Tejeda  López‐Moreno Ignacio  Ceballos‐Barbancho Antonio  Vicente‐Serrano Sergio M. 《水文研究》2011,25(8):1313-1326

In this study, we analysed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological response of the Duero River (central Spain) and its tributaries. We identified the positive and negative phases of the winter NAO for the period 1961–2006 and related precipitation and river discharge anomalies. Significant differences in precipitation and river discharge were found between the positive and negative NAO phases with negative anomalies (dry conditions) during positive NAO periods, and positive anomalies (wet conditions) during negative NAO periods. Marked differences were also found in the precipitation and river discharge response times to the NAO episodes, with an immediate response for precipitation but a lag and more sustained response for river discharges. Differing patterns were also identified in the response of river discharge to the NAO throughout the Duero basin. The physical characteristics of watersheds (including area, altitude and permeability explained most of the differences in the timing and magnitude of anomalies in the river discharge in response to the NAO. The findings highlight the great variability in the hydrological response of rivers to the NAO episodes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献