共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The transports of dust are calculated using 3-dimensional(3-D) trajectory method for three cases of duststorms in the terrain-following coordinate system,and the synoptic processes are also discussed for each case.The case of 17-20 April 1980,a severe duststorm was associated with the rapid development of a cyclone over the Mongolia Plateau.The dust moved from west to east across several deserts,formed a typical dust path in spring.The other two were weaker and the dust was triggered by the strong wind behind the cold front from northwest or north.Because the vertical velocity is considered in 3-D trajectory analysis,trajectories calculated should better reveal the transport rule of the dust particles and the results seem to be more consistent with the synoptic processes.The trajectory analysis on the 2-D isobaric surfaces is simpler but can be used only in the conditions with weak vertical wind shear and weak vertical velocity.The difference of trajectories at lower levels between two methods may be caused by the different treatment of orography. 相似文献
2.
北京几次弱降水过程预报失误分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
在选取的北京地区2011年冬季至2012年春季9次弱降水过程中,预报员出现了4次空报、2次漏报,预报效果总体不理想。通过对9次过程的预报检验、天气分析和多模式预报对比,得到如下认识:北京地区弱降水过程天气形势复杂多样,按高空大气环流形势可分为两槽一脊型、一槽两脊型、一槽一脊型,按地面天气形势可分为冷锋型、华北锢囚锋型、东风与倒槽型和东风回流型;弱降水过程普遍具有对流层低层水汽条件差或动力抬升弱的特点;对湿层浅薄、饱和层高度高、抬升凝结高度高的弱降水过程,数值模式容易出现空报;而对低层湿度条件好、饱和层高度低、抬升凝结高度低但高空系统弱的降水过程,模式又容易出现漏报;预报员主观预报出现空、漏报主要源于对天气系统的结构及发生发展机理认识不足,对边界层水汽、抬升等关键降水要素缺乏预报订正经验。 相似文献
3.
Pandora K. Hope 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(7-8):765-780
Rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia (SWWA) is sensitive to shifts in the hemispheric scale circulation due to its location at the northward extent of the influence of mid-latitude fronts. A step-drop in the 1970s to a new winter rainfall regime has caused great concern for water users in the region. The synoptic systems at the height of winter in the latter half of the 20th century over this region have been described in Hope et al. (Clim Dyn, 2006) using a self-organising map, and in this study the projected future shifts in those systems has been examined. Bounds are placed on the possible responses by examining a number of different models and, into the future, two scenarios at the upper (SRES A2) and lower (SRES B1) limits of plausible human induced emissions. Rainfall taken directly from the models captures the rainfall decline in the 1970s, and, although it is not as large as observed in any one model, all the models express a decline, which is a very strong result. Into the future the rainfall decline is dramatic. The scenario at the upper bound of emissions, where atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to rise strongly, shows a rainfall decline right through to the end of the century. The shift in synoptic systems for most models is to far fewer troughs and more high pressure systems across the region. One model exhibits a different signature, with a shift to more systems with a zonal structure. The fact that there is a rainfall decline shown by all models, yet the synoptic changes are different, highlights how sensitive SWWA rainfall is to the different responses of climate models to increasing greenhouse gases. In the B1 scenario, the concentrations rise only slowly in the second half of the century and the shift is still to drier conditions, but it is not as striking. These results show that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to increasingly dry conditions in SWWA, and as the atmospheric concentrations rise, the synoptic response intensifies. 相似文献
4.
P. Kassomenos H. A. Flocas S. Lykoudis M. Petrakis 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1998,59(3-4):215-229
Summary In this study day by day synoptic conditions are classified over the Attica peninsula for a period of sixteen years. Eight
synoptic categories which are demonstrated to be statistically distinct are selected with respect to the atmospheric circulation
in the lower troposphere. Furthermore, a methodology is proposed to classify the mesoscale patterns for the same period on
the basis of surface wind measurements, and this distinguishes eleven distinct mesoscale categories. In general, the frequency
analysis reveals that the anticyclonic circulation dominates while the weak mesoscale flows prevail, with preference in May
and June. A day by day cross tabulation of the synoptic flow patterns with the mesoscale categories is then performed in order
to identify the association of the synoptic conditions with the mesoscale flow regime. It was found that the synoptic conditions
at the level of 850 hPa are closely related to the observed surface local flows and therefore it is suggested that the synoptic
categories can be used for the identification of the most favourable mesoscale atmospheric circulation.
Received February 28, 1997 Revised May 22, 1997 相似文献
5.
Synoptic Typing and Its Application for Evaluating Climatic Impact on Air Quality in Urumqi 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 An automated procedure employing principal-component analysis and a two-stage cluster analysis was developed to classify the synoptic meteorological conditions prevailing over Urumqi, one of the most heavily polluted cities in the world. Six clusters representing different circulation patterns and air-mass characteristics were classified using surface- and upper-meteorological variables during the heating period from 2001 to 2008, and the relationships between synoptic clusters and air quality were evaluated. The heaviest air-pollution episodes occurred when Urumqi was in either an extremely cold, strong anticyclone or at the front of a migrating cyclone, both with light winds, wet surface air, and relatively dry upper air. Moderate pollution was seen when Urumqi was in the pre-cold/cold frontal passages with lower temperatures and light winds or moderate anticyclone with relatively warmer, drier air. When Urumqi was at the front of a migrating anticyclone or in a weak anticyclone with moderate winds and most warm, dry air, or in the cold/post-cold frontal passages with relatively strongly northerly airflows and precipitation, relatively good air quality could be seen. These results suggest that air pollution in Urumqi is very closely related to the synoptic meteorological conditions, which provides an important basis for not only the prediction and control of urban air-quality problems here but also for the analysis of the differential impacts of weather and pollution on human morbidity. 相似文献
6.
T. Klein G. Heinemann D. H. Bromwich J. J. Cassano K. M. Hines 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(1-2):115-132
Summary
Simulations of the katabatic wind system over the Greenland ice sheet for the two months April and May 1997 were performed
using the Norwegian Limited Area Model (NORLAM) with a horizontal resolution of 25 km. The model results are intercompared
and validated against observational data from automatic weather stations (AWS), global atmospheric analyses and instrumented
aircraft observations of individual cases during that period. The NORLAM is able to simulate the synoptic developments and
daily cycle of the katabatic wind system realistically. For most of the cases covered by aircraft observations, the model
results agree very well with the measured developments and structures of the katabatic wind system in the lowest 400 m. Despite
NORLAM’s general ability of reproducing the four-dimensional structure of the katabatic wind, problems occur in cases, when
the synoptic background is not well captured by the analyses used as initial and boundary conditions for the model runs or
where NORLAM fails to correctly predict the synoptic development. The katabatic wind intensity in the stable boundary layer
is underestimated by the model in cases when the simulated synoptic forcing is too weak. An additional problem becomes obvious
in cases when the model simulates clouds in contrast to the observations or when the simulated clouds are too thick compared
to the observed cloud cover. In these cases, the excessive cloud amount prevents development of the katabatic wind in the
model.
Received September 22, 2000/Revised March 16, 2001 相似文献
7.
A self-organising map is used to classify the winter circulation affecting southwest Western Australia (SWWA) into 20 different synoptic types. The changes in the frequency of these types and their links to observed rainfall are analysed to further understand the significant, prolonged, rainfall drop observed in this region since 1975. The temporal variability of the different synoptic types link well with the observed rainfall changes. The frequency of the troughs associated with wet conditions across SWWA has declined markedly since 1975 while the frequency of the synoptic types with high pressure over the continent, associated with dry conditions, has increased. Combining the frequency of the synoptic systems with the amount of observed rainfall allows a quantitative analysis of the rainfall decline. The decreased frequency of the troughs associated with very wet conditions accounts for half of the decline. Reductions in the amount of rainfall precipitating from each system also contribute to the decline. Large-scale circulation changes, including increases in the mean sea-level pressure and a decrease in the general baroclinicity of the region have been associated with the rainfall decline. These changes are suggested to be linked to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Due to the strong link between the number of trough types and the rainfall over SWWA, the shifts in the frequency of these synoptic types could be used as a tool to assess simulated rainfall changes, particularly into the future. 相似文献
8.
This paper examines the springtime cloud properties in the Taiwan Strait (TS), with emphases on their dependence on synoptic controls and local processes, using a suite of in situ and remote sensing observations. Cloud properties in the TS are inferred from a combination of MODIS and in situ observations and further classified into two synoptic conditions: continental cold air surge and frontal system. The study reveals a predominance of synoptic-scale controls in regulating the cloud properties in the TS. The sensitivity of clouds to the local thermodynamic mechanisms as well as the underlying surface conditions is fundamentally dependent on synoptic-scale flow patterns. The springtime clouds over the TS are commonly a mixture of stratocumulus and alto clouds. More precisely, there is a preponderance of stratocumulus over the strait. A preferential occupancy of stratiform alto clouds is recognized during cold air surge, whereas vertical development of cloud layers (mostly the stratocumulus) is commonly observed with frontal passage. The most distinct difference between the local clouds formation associated with the two synoptic conditions is the suppression of very low cloud and fog along with cold air surge. Stratus clouds and fog are present within the northward prefrontal airflow from warmer to colder water sites, along with an increase in stability relating to lower altitudes of boundary layer clouds. Although the rainfall occurrences are about the same for both synoptic conditions, the frontal rain amounts are larger on average. 相似文献
9.
South China is prone to heavy rainfall which may occur both in the pre-monsoon and the monsoon season. The responsible synoptic systems and the water-vapor sources, however, can be substantially different for different seasons. In this study, we aim to develop conceptual models for typical heavy rainfall events in South China through diagnostic case studies. A number of events have been analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR data, but the discussions here are focused on two representative events, one for the pre-monsoon season and the other for the monsoon season. Both events are found to be associated with extensive moist convective instability in the lower part of the troposphere. For the pre-monsoon case the instability was much weaker and the uplift of the warm moist air was provided by the cold air intrusion related to a weak cold front. The moist potential vorticity theory can be used to explain the increase of vorticity and vertical velocity in the lower part of the troposphere. For the monsoon event, the lower troposphere was extensively and strongly unstable and the upward motion was provided by the shear of a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) which appeared to be driven, at least partially driven, by the upper-level jet. In both events, LLJ played a major role in not only providing the dynamic conditions but also the supply of water vapor for heavy rainfall in South China. The diagnostic results presented in this study provide a useful guidance for future numerical simulations. 相似文献
10.
Synoptic and local scale atmospheric circulation associated with air pollution episodes in an urban Mediterranean area 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
H. Flocas A. Kelessis C. Helmis M. Petrakakis M. Zoumakis K. Pappas 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,95(3-4):265-277
Air pollution episodes in urban coastal areas follow certain pre-determined patterns, being associated with certain local meteorological conditions and emission of primary pollutants. In this study, the synoptic and local scale atmospheric circulation that prevails during air pollution episodes in a coastal major city in Greece, Thessaloniki, is examined for a period of 15 years (1989–2004). The study signifies the importance of studying air pollution meteorological patterns between coastal areas with different terrain characteristics. For Thessaloniki, it was found that the episodes occur mainly during the cold period of the year, while four types of synoptic scale circulation were recognized (I, II, III, IV) and five patterns of the local scale circulation (A1, A2, B1, B2 and B3). The highest percentage of episodes is associated with the presence of an anticyclone over the northern Greece (types I and IV), being characterized by weak or very weak surface pressure gradient intensity, according to the position and extension of the anticyclone. Moreover, a temperature increase of at least 1°C during the previous 3 days is required in the lower troposphere. Consistent with the synoptic conditions, the development of the sea breeze plays a crucial role in the occurrence of the episodes, even in the cold period of the year, when the sea breeze can still develop with smaller frequency and intensity. Finally, it was found that a small number of episodes is related with the advection of polluted air masses from the industrial area in the northwest of the city and from the Eordaia area in the west, which is the largest lignite producing area of Balkans. 相似文献
11.
I. G. S. van Hooijdonk A. F. Moene M. Scheffer H. J. H. Clercx B. J. H. van de Wiel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,162(2):283-306
The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows. 相似文献
12.
J. S. Greene L. S. Kalkstein H. Ye K. Smoyer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1999,62(3-4):163-174
Summary An evaluation of the impacts of weather on pollution, specifically, ozone and total suspended particulates concentration
for Summer, is examined in four cities in the U.S.: Birmingham, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Seattle. These cities were selected
because of their different climate regimes and their generally good pollutant and meteorological datasets. This paper uses
a synoptic climatological approach, which combines a number of atmospheric factors, to better identify the relationships between
atmospheric pollution and climatological conditions. Synoptic events represent holistic units of atmospheric conditions which
commonly occur at a given locale, and possess specific weather and pollution characteristics. A number of weather variables,
including temperature, are used in the development of a synoptic index, which can be used to identify synoptic events associated
with specific pollution episodes. Results from the analysis illustrate that there is a substantial difference in pollution
loads under different synoptic patterns, and that the cities do have substantially different relationships.
Information from this study could be used to assist in the analysis of the differential impacts of weather and pollution upon
human morbidity. Specific information as to the linkages between the synoptic weather patterns, pollution concentrations,
and human health could be used in the development of weather/health watch-warning systems to alert the public that a synoptic
episode is imminent.
Received September 18, 1998 相似文献
13.
P. Kassomenos H. A. Flocas S. Lykoudis M. Petrakis 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1997,62(3-4):249-256
Summary Serious events of radiative frost were reported in an important agricultural area of central Macedonia, the valley of Lagadas, at the end of March 1994. Since the phenomenon has a strong local character and no surface observations are available, a simulation is performed using a three dimensional numerical model in order to investigate the horizontal and vertical thermal structure of the lower troposphere during the frost event. The synoptic analysis reveals that the background flow was weak, associated with anticyclonic circulation and insignificant pressure gradient in the lower troposphere. Under these synoptic conditions, it was demonstrated that the meteorological model represents successfully the temperature and wind fields over the valley of Lagadas during the frost event. It appears that the model can serve as an alternative method to analyse the characteristics of the radiative frost that occurs very frequently over the examined area associated with substantial economic repercussion.With 10 Figures 相似文献
14.
Michael Tjernström 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1988,44(3):207-230
A higher order closure mesoscale model is used to study the influence of different surface properties on stratiform boundary-layer clouds. The model is hydrostatic, has a terrain-following coordinate system and a sub-grid scale condensation scheme. It also has a radiation parameterisation for shortwave and longwave radiation in order to calculate radiative cooling/heating. The simulations show the effects on a cloud field when cool or cold air is advected over warm water, the possible influence of local circulation systems on cloud fields in situations with weak synoptic forcing and the influence on a cloud field by growing internal boundary layers. Some of the results are compared with simpler physical models, and limitations in those are demonstrated. 相似文献
15.
To examine the correlation between the sizes of sea breeze fronts and pollutants under the influence of synoptic fields, a numerical simulation was conducted in the southeast coastal area of the Korean Peninsula, where relatively high concentrations of pollutants occur because of the presence of various kinds of industrial developments. Sea breeze and sea breeze front days during the period 2005-09 were identified using wind profiler data and, according to the results, the number of days were 72 and 53, respectively. When synoptic forcing was weak, sea breeze fronts moved fast both in horizontal fields and in terms of wind velocity, while in the case of strong synoptic forcing, sea breeze fronts remained at the coast or moved slowly due to strong opposing flows. In this case, the sea breeze front development function and horizontal potential temperature difference were larger than with weak synoptic forcing. The ozone concentration that moves together with sea breeze fronts was also formed along the frontal surfaces. Ozone advection and diffusion in the case of strong synoptic forcing was suppressed at the frontal surface and the concentration gradient was large. The vertical distribution of ozone was very low due to the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) being low. 相似文献
16.
The impact of transient eddies on extratropical seasonal-mean prediction and predictability was examined using DEMETER seasonal prediction data. Two distinct groups were found among the seven DEMETER models based on the simulated properties of their climatological state: (1) models of a strong jet stream and strong transient activity (strong transient models), which is close to the observed intensity, and (2) models of a weak jet stream and weak transient activity (weak transient models). In addition to climatology, the strong transient models tend to predict strong Pacific North American (PNA) patterns, whereas the weak transient models predict weak PNA patterns. Here we demonstrate that these differences mainly result from differences in the eddy feedback intensity. Due to synoptic eddy feedback, the strong transient models exhibit not only strong signal variance but also strong noise variance compared with those of the weak transient models. Interestingly two groups of models show the potential predictability of deterministic forecast, measured by the signal to noise ratio, which is similar to each other. However, the strong transient models produce the error to spread ratio smaller than that of the weak transient models, implying that the former models produce a more reliable spread for the probabilistic forecast. This study implies that a better representation of transient statistics is needed to improve the extratropical predictability of the dynamical seasonal prediction. 相似文献
17.
造成北京PM10重污染的二类典型天气形势 总被引：11，自引：5，他引：6
利用北京空气质量监测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了北京发生PM10重污染的天气形势。研究表明:1)虽然北京地区PM10重污染(API指数3级以上)每年只有10 d左右,但与之关联的轻微或轻度空气污染(API指数3级)天数,却可能占全年3级污染总天数的40%-50%。因此,分析研究造成北京PM10重污染的天气形势,对于空气污染的预警预报以及污染源的控制和管理,都具有十分重要意义。2)通过海平面气压场的主观分析,确定了二类北京PM10重污染的典型天气形势,即高压南下东移阻滞型和与北上台风(或热带低压)相关联的弱高压控制型,并指出了后者在2008年奥运会期间,对开展北京空气污染预报和污染控制的指导作用。 相似文献
18.
The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related to them, in particular, storm wind waves. The choice of sea level pressure field as an indicator of atmospheric conditions of storm waves is substantiated. The algorithm for the method implementation is developed. It includes the processing of observational/reanalysis data; wind wave simulation; the systematization of synoptic conditions that accompany storm waves under the modern climate; the assessment of the ability of climate models of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation to simulate correctly the frequency of the revealed types of synoptic conditions for the modern climate; and the forecast of the frequency of these types for the possible scenarios of the future climate. 相似文献
19.
本文利用一个空间滤波器、将台风环境场分解为天气和次天气尺度。在此基础上，对两个异常北上的台风路径（8211号台风（Cecil）和8305号台风（Abby））进行诊断分析。结果表明:台风异常北上时期出现在天气尺度环境场发生环流调查过程中，在500 hPa高度场上，台风异常北上时，表现出向着次天气尺度扰动中心传播方向移动的趋势，在天气尺度环境场作用明显减弱时期，这可能是导致台风路径异常的重要因素；同时，在动能场上，台风则表现出向着正值的次天气尺度动能制造区伸展方向移动。 相似文献
20.
敦煌地区荒漠戈壁地表热量和辐射平衡特征的研究 总被引：83，自引：4，他引：79
利用2000年5月25日～6月17日"敦煌试验"在戈壁的微气象观测资料,分析了极端干旱地区晴天、阴天和降水等天气条件下的地表辐射平衡、热量平衡和土壤温度等微气象特征的日变化规律.发现在不同天气条件微气象特征有很大变化.但观测期间的平均微气象特征与晴天比较接近,天气过程的影响不是很大,平均的总辐射、净辐射和感热通量与晴天的比值在白天基本大于0.8.观测期间的平均Bowen比全天大于1,在白天都在10以上,最大超过100. 相似文献