Temporal Scaling Analytical Method to Identify Multi-Fractionality in Groundwater Head Fluctuations     

Lin Yuan  HongGuang Sun  Yong Zhang  YouKuan Zhang  Xiufen Gu  Shawn Dawley 《Ground water》2019,57(3):485-491

Natural dynamics such as groundwater head fluctuations may exhibit multi-fractionality, likely caused by multi-scale aquifer heterogeneity and other controlling factors, whose statistics requires efficient quantification methods. As a scaling exponent, the Hurst exponent can describe the temporal correlation or multifractal behavior in groundwater level fluctuation processes. However, the scaling behavior may change with time under natural conditions, likely due to the non-stationary evolution of internal and external conditions, which cannot be characterized by traditional methods using a single or several scaling exponents for the complex features of the overall process. This methods note quantifies the multi-fractionality using the timescale local Hurst exponent (TS-LHE) and then proposes a systematic statistical method to analyze groundwater head fluctuations. Time series of daily groundwater level fluctuations from three wells located in the lower Mississippi valley are analyzed, after removing the seasonal cycle, which leads to transient TS-LHE, implying multi-fractionality and multifractal-scaling behavior that changes with time and location. Therefore, the temporal scaling analysis proposed here may provide useful and quantitative information to understand the nature of dynamic hydrologic systems.  相似文献   

Isolating the impacts of anthropogenic water use within the hydrological regime of north India     

J. O'Keeffe  S. Moulds  J.M. Scheidegger  C.R. Jackson  T. Nair  A. Mijic 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(5):1217-1228

The effects of anthropogenic water use play a significant role in determining the hydrological cycle of north India. This paper explores anthropogenic impacts within the region's hydrological regime by explicitly including observed human water use behaviour, irrigation infrastructure and the natural environment in the CHANSE (Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment) socio-hydrological modelling framework. The model is constrained by observed qualitative and quantitative information collected in the study area, along with climate and socio-economic variables from additional sources. Four separate scenarios, including business as usual (BAU, representing observed irrigation practices), groundwater irrigation only (where the influence of the canal network is removed), canal irrigation only (where all irrigation water is supplied by diverted surface water) and rainfed only (where all human interventions are removed) are used. Under BAU conditions the modelling framework closely matched observed groundwater levels. Following the removal of the canal network, which forces farmers to rely completely on groundwater for irrigation, water levels decrease, while under a canal-only scenario flooding occurs. Under the rainfed-only scenario, groundwater levels similar to current business-as-usual conditions are observed, despite much larger volumes of recharge and discharge entering and leaving the system under BAU practices. While groundwater abstraction alone may lead to aquifer depletion, the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, which includes unintended contributions of canal leakage, create conditions similar to those where no human interventions are present. Here, the importance of suitable water management practices, in maintaining sustainable water resources, is shown. This may include augmenting groundwater resources through managed aquifer recharge and reducing the impacts on aquifer resources through occasional canal water use where possible. The importance of optimal water management practices that highlight trade-offs between environmental impact and human wellbeing are shown, providing useful information for policy makers, water managers and users. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sustainable groundwater management of the stressed Coastal aquifer in the Gaza region     

ABRAHAM J. MELLOUL  MARTIN L. COLLIN 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):147-159

Abstract

This study proposes an empirical approach that can lead to the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This approach enables a comprehensive understanding of an aquifer, delineates distinct hydrological scenarios, and recommends a set of operational activities for each sub-region of the aquifer. The paper focuses on the Coastal aquifer of the Gaza Strip region which has been divided into three sub-regions. The southern sub-region (WSW) is classified as scenario “+a2”, which indicates that it can be used as a multi-annual groundwater reservoir. The northern sub-region (NW-E) is designated scenario “-a2”, where the recommended operational measures include injection of freshwater in wells and cleaning of the surface environment. The third sub-region (CSE), is classified as scenario “-b2”, which requires severe management measures to correct both a negative hydrological and environmental situation. The approach also involves on-going monitoring of the aquifer, and can be considered as an empirical tool to provide preliminary guidelines for long-term groundwater management.  相似文献   

A comprehensive assessment framework for attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater storage to climatic and anthropogenic changes: A case study in the typical semi-arid catchments of southern India     

Rajesh Nune  Biju A. George  Andrew W. Western  Kaushal K. Garg  Sreenath Dixit  Ragab Ragab 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14305

The clearest signs of hydrologic change can be observed from the trends in streamflow and groundwater levels in a catchment. During 1980–2007, significant declines in streamflow (−3.03 mm/year) and groundwater levels (−0.22 m/year) were observed in Himayat Sagar (HS) catchment, India. We examined the degree to which hydrologic changes observed in the HS catchment can be attributed to various internal and external drivers of change (climatic and anthropogenic changes). This study used an investigative approach to attribute hydrologic changes. First, it involves to develop a model and test its ability to predict hydrologic trends in a catchment that has undergone significant changes. Second, it examines the relative importance of different causes of change on the hydrologic response. The analysis was carried out using Modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model coupled with a lumped groundwater model for each sub- catchment. The model results indicated that the decline in potential evapotranspiration (PET) appears to be partially offset by a significant response to changes in rainfall. Measures that enhance recharge, such as watershed hydrological structures, have had limited success in terms of reducing impacts on the catchment-scale water balance. Groundwater storage has declined at a rate of 5 mm/y due to impact of land use changes and this was replaced by a net addition of 2 mm/y by hydrological structures. The impact of land use change on streamflow is an order of magnitude larger than the impact of hydrological structures and about is 2.5 times higher in terms of groundwater impact. Model results indicate that both exogenous and endogenous changes can have large impacts on catchment hydrology and should be considered together. The proposed comprehensive framework and approach demonstrated here is valuable in attributing trends in streamflow and groundwater levels to catchment climatic and anthropogenic changes.  相似文献   

Assessment of the hydrological status of Doñana dune ponds: a natural World Heritage Site under threat     

A. Fernández-Ayuso  M. Rodríguez-Rodríguez  J. Benavente 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2048-2059

ABSTRACT

The hydrological response of shallow ponds to groundwater withdrawal has been of growing concern in the Doñana National Park (southern Spain) in recent decades. This study examines the role of groundwater in maintaining the hydroperiod (i.e. the hydrological regime) in the park’s main dune ponds, by quantifying the groundwater fluxes to/from them. The hydrological characterization was performed by applying different methodologies. Daily hydrological balances registered in the ponds revealed groundwater contributions ranging from 80% of the total water inflows (i.e. groundwater discharge) to a net groundwater recharge from the ponds to the aquifer, and enabled the studied water bodies to be classified as discharge or recharge systems. The recharge systems must have been influenced by the lowering of piezometric levels due to groundwater extraction for urban supply in a nearby coastal resort.  相似文献   

Sustainable Capture: Concepts for Managing Stream‐Aquifer Systems          下载免费PDF全文

Jeffrey C. Davids  Steffen W. Mehl 《Ground water》2015,53(6):851-858

Most surface water bodies (i.e., streams, lakes, etc.) are connected to the groundwater system to some degree so that changes to surface water bodies (either diversions or importations) can change flows in aquifer systems, and pumping from an aquifer can reduce discharge to, or induce additional recharge from streams, springs, and lakes. The timescales of these interactions are often very long (decades), making sustainable management of these systems difficult if relying only on observations of system responses. Instead, management scenarios are often analyzed based on numerical modeling. In this paper we propose a framework and metrics that can be used to relate the Theis concepts of capture to sustainable measures of stream‐aquifer systems. We introduce four concepts: Sustainable Capture Fractions, Sustainable Capture Thresholds, Capture Efficiency, and Sustainable Groundwater Storage that can be used as the basis for developing metrics for sustainable management of stream‐aquifer systems. We demonstrate their utility on a hypothetical stream‐aquifer system where pumping captures both streamflow and discharge to phreatophytes at different amounts based on pumping location. In particular, Capture Efficiency (CE) can be easily understood by both scientists and non‐scientist alike, and readily identifies vulnerabilities to sustainable stream‐aquifer management when its value exceeds 100%.  相似文献   

Coupling Between Seismic Activity and Hydrogeochemistry at the Shillong Plateau, Northeastern India     

Alasdair Skelton  Lillemor Claesson  Govinda Chakrapani  Chandan Mahanta  Joyanto Routh  Magnus Mörth  Param Khanna 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(1):45-61

Transient hydrogeochemical anomalies were detected in a granite-hosted aquifer, which is located at a depth of 110 m, north of the Shillong Plateau, Assam, India, where groundwater chemistry is mainly buffered by feldspar alteration to kaolinite. Their onsets preceded moderate earthquakes on December 9, 2004 (M_W = 5.3) and February 15, 2005 (M_W = 5.0), respectively, 206 and 213 km from the aquifer. The ratios [Na+K]/Si, Na/K and [Na+K]/Ca, conductivity, alkalinity and chloride concentration began increasing 3–5 weeks before the M_W = 5.3 earthquake. By comparison with field, experimental and theoretical studies, we interpret a transient switchover between source aquifers, which induced an influx of groundwater from a second aquifer, where groundwater chemistry was dominantly buffered by the alteration of feldspar to smectite. This could have occurred in response to fracturing of a hydrological barrier. The ratio Ba/Sr began decreasing 3–6 days before the M_W = 5.0 earthquake. We interpret a transient switchover to anorthite dissolution caused by exposure of fresh plagioclase to groundwater interaction. This could have been induced by microfracturing, locally within the main aquifer. By comparison with experimental studies of feldspar dissolution, we interpret that hydrogeochemical recovery was facilitated by groundwater interaction and clay mineralization, which could have been coupled with fracture sealing. The coincidence in timing of these two hydrogeochemical events with the only two M_W ≥ 5 earthquakes in the study area argues in favor of cause-and-effect seismic-hydrogeochemical coupling. However, reasons for ambiguity include the lack of similar hydrogeochemical anomalies coupled with smaller seismic events near the monitoring station, the >200 km length scale of inferred seismic-hydrogeochemical coupling, and the potential for far-field effects related to the Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands Earthquake of December 26, 2004.  相似文献   

Dynamic river–groundwater exchange in the presence of a saline,semi‐confined aquifer          下载免费PDF全文

N. P. Unland  I. Cartwright  E. Daly  B. S. Gilfedder  A. P. Atkinson 《水文研究》2015,29(23):4817-4829

Understanding groundwater–surface water exchange in river banks is crucial for effective water management and a range of scientific disciplines. While there has been much research on bank storage, many studies assume idealized aquifer systems. This paper presents a field‐based study of the Tambo Catchment (southeast Australia) where the Tambo River interacts with both an unconfined aquifer containing relatively young and fresh groundwater (<500 μS/cm and <100 years old) and a semi‐confined artesian aquifer containing old and saline groundwater (electrical conductivity > 2500 μS/cm and >10 000 years old). Continuous groundwater elevation and electrical conductivity monitoring within the different aquifers and the river suggest that the degree of mixing between the two aquifers and the river varies significantly in response to changing hydrological conditions. Numerical modelling using MODFLOW and the solute transport package MT3DMS indicates that saline water in the river bank moves away from the river during flooding as hydraulic gradients reverse. This water then returns during flood recession as baseflow hydraulic gradients are re‐established. Modelling also indicates that the concentration of a simulated conservative groundwater solute can increase for up to ~34 days at distances of 20 and 40 m from the river in response to flood events approximately 10 m in height. For the same flood event, simulated solute concentrations within 10 m of the river increase for only ~15 days as the infiltrating low‐salinity river water drives groundwater dilution. Average groundwater fluxes to the river stretch estimated using Darcy's law were 7 m³/m/day compared with 26 and 3 m³/m/day for the same periods via mass balance using Radon (²²²Rn) and chloride (Cl), respectively. The study shows that by coupling numerical modelling with continuous groundwater–surface water monitoring, the transient nature of bank storage can be evaluated, leading to a better understanding of the hydrological system and better interpretation of hydrochemical data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On understanding and predicting groundwater response time   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sophocleous M 《Ground water》2012,50(4):528-540

An aquifer system, when perturbed, has a tendency to evolve to a new equilibrium, a process that can take from just a few seconds to possibly millions of years. The time scale on which a system adjusts to a new equilibrium is often referred to as "response time" or "lag time." Because groundwater response time affects the physical and economic viability of various management options in a basin, natural resource managers are increasingly interested in incorporating it into policy. However, the processes of how groundwater responds to land-use change are not well understood, making it difficult to predict the timing of groundwater response to such change. The difficulty in estimating groundwater response time is further compounded because the data needed to quantify this process are not usually readily available. This article synthesizes disparate pieces of information on aquifer response times into a relatively brief but hopefully comprehensive review that the community of water professionals can use to better assess the impact of aquifer response time in future groundwater management investigations. A brief exposition on dimensional/scaling analysis is presented first, followed by an overview of aquifer response time for simplified aquifer systems. The aquifer response time is considered first from a water-quantity viewpoint and later expanded to incorporate groundwater age and water-quality aspects. Monitoring programs today, as well as water policies and regulations, should address this issue of aquifer response time so that more realistic management expectations can be reached.  相似文献   

A process-based approach to attribution of historical streamflow decline in a data-scarce and human-dominated watershed     

Gopal Penny  Veena Srinivasan  R. Apoorva  Kirubaharan Jeremiah  Joshua Peschel  Sierra Young  Sally Thompson 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1981-1995

Human activities have resulted in rapid hydrological change around the world, in many cases producing shifts in the dominant hydrological processes, confounding predictions, and complicating effective management and planning. Identifying and characterizing such changes in hydrological processes is therefore a globally relevant problem, one that is particularly challenging in sparsely monitored environments. We develop a novel, process-based approach for attribution of hydrological change in such scenarios and apply the approach to the TG Halli watershed outside Bangalore, India, where streamflow has declined considerably over the last 50 years. The approach consists of (a) employing a range of field instrumentation and experiments to identify contemporary streamflow generation mechanisms, (b) using these observations to constrain our understanding and generate hypotheses pertaining to historical changes, and (c) evaluating these hypotheses with a range of evidence including proxies for historical hydrological processes. The body of evidence in the TG Halli watershed indicates the historical presence and subsequent loss of a shallow groundwater table that previously discharged to the stream, meaning that groundwater depletion is the most likely driver of streamflow decline. These findings present a viable path towards improved predictions of future water resources and sustainable water management within the watershed. Our process-based approach to attribution has the potential to improve understanding of human-driven hydrological change in regions with poor monitoring of hydrological systems.  相似文献   

Influence of precipitation and deep saline groundwater on the hydrological systems of Mediterranean coastal plains: a general overview     

V. Re  G. M. Zuppi 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):966-980

Abstract

The increasing water demand is a concern affecting many regions in the Mediterranean Basin. To overcome this situation rim countries resorted during the last decades to a massive mobilization of their water resources, often resulting in excessive water exploitation. In such a context, understanding the effects of present recharge and aquifer salinization is crucial for correct water management. Understanding the present hydrogeological situation of coastal plains requires the knowledge of both their past morphologic conditions and their recent geological evolution. Within this framework, this paper presents a review of water related problems in the Mediterranean Basin. It suggests a conceptual model for groundwater resources in Mediterranean coastal plains, deriving from the present and past recharge processes. Special attention is paid to providing a better understanding of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality, and conservation of ecological diversity.

Citation Re, V. & Zuppi, G. M. (2011) Influence of precipitation and deep saline groundwater on the hydrological systems of Mediterranean coastal plains: a general overview. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 966–980.  相似文献   

Using isotopes to understand landscape-scale connectivity in a groundwater-dominated,lowland catchment under drought conditions     

Lukas Kleine  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Aaron Smith  Tobias Goldhammer  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14197

The Demnitzer Millcreek catchment (DMC), is a 66 km² long-term experimental catchment located 50 km SE of Berlin. Monitoring over the past 30 years has focused on hydrological and biogeochemical changes associated with de-intensification of farming and riparian restoration in the low-lying landscape dominated by rain-fed farming and forestry. However, the hydrological function of the catchment, which is closely linked to nutrient fluxes and highly sensitive to climatic variability, is still poorly understood. In the last 3 years, a prolonged drought period with below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures has resulted in marked hydrological change. This caused low soil moisture storage in the growing season, agricultural yield losses, reduced groundwater recharge, and intermittent streamflows in parts of an increasingly disconnected channel network. This paper focuses on a two-year long isotope study that sought to understand how different parts of the catchment affect ecohydrological partitioning, hydrological connectivity and streamflow generation during drought conditions. The work has shown the critical importance of groundwater storage in sustaining flows, basic in-stream ecosystem services and the dominant influence of vegetation on groundwater recharge. Recharge was much lower and occurred during a shorter window of time in winter under forests compared to grasslands. Conversely, groundwater recharge was locally enhanced by the restoration of riparian wetlands and storage-dependent water losses from the stream to the subsurface. The isotopic variability displayed complex emerging spatio-temporal patterns of stream connectivity and flow duration during droughts that may have implications for in-stream solute transport and future ecohydrological interactions between landscapes and riverscapes. Given climate projections for drier and warmer summers, reduced and increasingly intermittent streamflows are very likely not just in the study region, but in similar lowland areas across Europe. An integrated land and water management strategy will be essential to sustaining catchment ecosystem services in such catchment systems in future.  相似文献   

Spatial delineation of riparian groundwater within alluvium deposit of mountainous region using Laplace equation          下载免费PDF全文

Noriaki Ohara  W. Steven Holbrook  Katsu Yamatani  Brady A. Flinchum  James T. St. Clair 《水文研究》2018,32(1):30-38

The interaction between surface and groundwater plays a key role in a riparian ecosystem while the size of riparian groundwater has not been typically incorporated into hydrological modelling systems. An extensive geophysical survey composed of 25 individual DC electrical resistivity profiles was conducted at the Blair–Wallis site in Wyoming. The observed resistivity images show a near‐surface aquifer interpreted as the saturated alluvium deposit along the channel, rather than the geological bedrock. Based on the electrical resistivity images, it can be inferred that only the near‐surface portion of the groundwater actively interacts with the stream flow in the mountainous and hilly watershed. This study attempted the spatial extrapolation of the measured riparian aquifer depths by means of fitting functions based on the surface topography. The analysis indicated that the boundary of the riparian aquifer well corresponds to the topographical inflexion point of the hill slope profile. It was also demonstrated that the extent of alluvium deposit, where the area of riparian aquifer is indicated, can be delineated using the slope and curvature maps in the geographic information system. Then, the parabolic and biharmonic functions were tested for the groundwater depth estimation using the developed alluvium deposit map. The proposed methodology was effective if geological diffusion processes by wind and water dominated the topography. The spatial map of the active aquifer will be useful in hydrological drought analysis because it is considered to be a main source of baseflow during dry seasons.  相似文献   

Recharge sources and hydrogeological effects of irrigation and an influent river identified by stable isotopes in the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer (Southern Spain)     

C. Duque  M. López‐Chicano  M. L. Calvache  W. Martín‐Rosales  J. M. Gómez‐Fontalva  F. Crespo 《水文研究》2011,25(14):2261-2274

Measurement of the stable isotopes oxygen‐18 and deuterium in water is an important tool to characterize aquifer recharge sources. In the driest areas of the Mediterranean, this application is of special interest due to the scarcity of water and the resulting common incidence of human influence on natural hydrological systems. The Motril‐Salobreña detrital aquifer (southern Spain) is a clear example of such an impact as inhabitants have designed irrigation systems and a dam was recently built across the course of the Guadalfeo River, which feeds the aquifer. The sampling of (river or ground) water has allowed the determination of stable isotope contents (oxygen‐18 and deuterium), both temporally and spatially, and the relative importance of the main recharge sources in certain sectors. In addition, we were able to infer seasonal trends and to improve existing knowledge of the main flow paths and the position of a seasonal groundwater divide. Data analysis shows evaporation plays a minor role (despite the high temperatures in the zone), scarce rainwater influence, and the overwhelming contribution of recharge from the Guadalfeo River and from the carbonate aquifer (Escalate aquifer) in contact with the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer. Irrigation return flow during the summer months comprises the main recharge due to the significant volumes of water that infiltrate. The construction of the dam will almost certainly entail great changes in the current dynamics of the hydrogeology of the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer; therefore, knowledge of its behaviour is crucial in order to carry out sustainable use of its groundwater resources. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Transient streambed hydraulic conductivity in channel and bar environments,Loup River,Nebraska     

Jesse T. Korus  Wilhelm P. Fraundorfer  Troy E. Gilmore  Kelsey Karnik 《水文研究》2020,34(14):3061-3077

Streambed hydraulic conductivity (K) and vertical K (K _v) are key controls on groundwater and surface water exchange and biogeochemical fluxes through the hyporheic zone, but drivers of transient hydraulic properties in different fluvial environments are poorly understood. This study combines hydrogeology, geophysics, and sedimentology to reveal mechanisms of K and K _v transience in the upper 0.5 m of a sandy streambed during low discharge. Hydraulic tests (44 slug tests, 130 falling-head permeameter tests) and 130 grain-size analyses were repeated three times over 8 weeks on a 1,200 m² grid spanning: (a) a channel with continuously flowing water and mobile bed load; (b) an adjacent mid-channel bar that was stationary and infrequently submerged. Aerial photographs and ground-penetrating radar show scour and complete reworking of fluvial sediments in the channel. Bar sediments below the water table remained immobile, but infrequent flows of moderate discharge reworked the uppermost few centimetres of the bar top. Despite differences in sediment mobility and stream flow characteristics across environments, K and K _v exhibited order-of-magnitude differences in spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in both the channel and bar. Mean K and K _v values in the channel were comparatively stable over time. In the immobile bar, mean K declined 20% and K _v declined 26% after increased discharge temporarily inundated the bar. Grain-size distributions were steady across both environments over time, but repeat geophysical surveys of the bar show a decrease in electrical conductivity, likely from porosity reduction. These findings suggest that sediment dynamics and stream flow characteristics in different streambed environments are important drivers of K transience during low discharge conditions. Specifically, pore clogging can be an important mechanism of transience over short durations (weeks to months) in immobile sediments subject to infrequent flows and minor reworking.  相似文献   

Integration of surface water with groundwater resources aided by numerical modelling     

M. FUGAZZA  M. GALLATI  U. MOISELLO  L. NATALE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):155-168

ABSTRACT

The possibility was studied of a gradual extension of the irrigable area of the Tarlac Irrigation System, located in the alluvial plain of Luzon Island (Philippines). The extension would be made by integrating groundwater with surface water supplied from a reservoir already designed. Aquifer exploitation was studied adopting the criterion that groundwater is a very expensive resource to be turned to only in severe drought years. The objectives of the study were twofold: (a) planning the distribution of the wells (to be drilled during the various stages of the irrigation system development) so as to minimize the pumping cost; (b) establishing a policy for the well management in conjunction with the reservoir operation. Different schemes of the combined system management were analysed on the basis of the climatic and hydrological regime over the period 1950–1972. For this period the monthly water requirements for the different crops and the monthly values of aquifer recharge were computed. The economic analyses were performed using present prices of agricultural products and power together with several different hypotheses about future prices. A finite element model of the semiconfined aquifer was postulated and calibrated; the importance of the return flow from irrigation was also tested. Simulations of exploitation schemes provided a detailed forecast of the aquifer response to the irrigation demands.  相似文献   

Numerical groundwater modelling as an effective tool for management of water resources in arid areas     

Mohamed El Alfy 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1259-1274

Abstract

Groundwater, possibly of fossil origin, is used for water supply in some arid regions where the replenishment of groundwater by precipitation is low. Numerical modelling is a helpful tool in the assessment of groundwater resources and analysis of future exploitation scenarios. To quantify the groundwater resources of the East Owienat area in the southwest of the Western Desert, Egypt, the present study assesses the groundwater resources management of the Nubian aquifer. Groundwater withdrawals have increased in this area, resulting in a disturbance of the aquifer’s natural equilibrium, and the large-scale and ongoing depletion of this critical water reserve. Negative impacts, such as a decline in water levels and increase in salinity, have been experienced. The methodology includes application of numerical groundwater modelling in steady and transient states under different measured and abstraction scenarios. The numerical simulation model developed was applied to assess the responses of the Nubian aquifer water level under different pumping scenarios during the next 30 years. Groundwater management scenarios are evaluated to find an optimal management solution to satisfy future needs. Based on analysis of three different development schemes that were formulated to predict the future response of the aquifer under long-term water stress, a gradual increase in groundwater pumping to 150% of present levels should be adopted for protection and better management of the aquifer. Similar techniques could be used to improve groundwater management in other parts of the country, as well as other similar arid regions.