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1.
2005年全球重大天气气候事件概述 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5
2005年，全球气候持续偏暖，是有记录以来第二暖年，仅次于最暖年1998年。年内，南亚地区遭受高温热浪袭击，欧洲中部和西部经历了极为严重的高温干旱，巴西北部亚马逊热带雨林遭遇了近60年来最严重的干旱。全球各地出现了不同程度的洪涝，此外，暴雨雪袭击了西亚、南亚北部、中亚、日本和中国的部分地区、美国和欧洲部分地区。2005年全球飓风（台风）灾害十分惨重。大西洋飓风为历史上最活跃的一年，其中飓风“卡特里娜”成为有记录以来影响美国最严重的飓风。西北太平洋台风活动虽较常年偏弱，但登陆中国的热带风暴和台风则数量多、强度强和灾害重。 相似文献
2.
2009年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
2009年初欧洲遭遇罕见寒流,大雪低温造成多人死亡;南半球夏季,高温热浪导致澳大利亚发生严重火灾,上百人丧生火海;9月,台风"凯萨娜"先后袭击菲律宾和越南,造成近500万人受灾;11月,飓风"艾达"袭击美洲多国,导致20多万人受灾;秋末冬初,北半球中高纬多地经历严寒天气,创下降雪偏早新纪录。在我国,强台风"莫拉克"重创台湾;50年来最严重春旱困扰黑龙江、内蒙古等地;50年罕见秋旱灼伤南方大地;11月,罕见强对流天气侵袭我国7省。2009年是1850年有气象记录以来第5个高温年,全球极端天气和气候灾害频发。 相似文献
3.
1998年全球重大气候事件概述 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
１９９８年,世界大部地区继续偏暖,全球平均气温再创历史新纪录。由于受厄尔尼诺事件和拉尼娜现象的影响,许多地区气候发生异常,出现了大范围的暴雨洪水和高温干旱天气,中国、孟加拉国和中美洲诸国遭受世纪性洪涝灾害,全球经济损失超过历史最高纪录。冬季,全球大部地区气候异常暖和;年初,北美大陆遭受暴风雪袭击;春季,墨西哥、印度尼西亚因干旱引发严重的森林大火;入夏之后,热浪天气席卷印度、欧洲各国,美国许多地区受到系列龙卷风的袭击;初秋,欧洲大陆又出现了寒流天气,加勒比海地区秋季连遭强飓风袭击 相似文献
4.
2012年,全球气温偏高,可能为有观测记录以来的第九个最暖年,北半球经历了有记录以来第二个最热的夏季。年内,2011/2012年拉尼娜事件于2012年初结束,北极海冰范围创历史新低,世界范围内出现了显著的气候异常和极端事件。年初,低温、寒流和暴雪袭卷欧洲和东亚地区;5月,亚马孙河流域因强降水遭遇50年不遇的洪水;6—9月,美国发生1956年以来最严重的干旱;6月以来,多个强台风袭击东亚、东南亚和美国东海岸。全球极端偏暖事件主要出现在欧洲中部和南部、北美洲中部和南部、南美洲南部、亚洲西部、南部和东北部等地;极端偏冷事件主要出现在亚洲大部、欧洲东部和美洲东部的局部等地。欧洲中部、非洲西部、南美洲中南部、南亚、东南亚和东北亚南部等地区出现了极端强降水事件。分析指出,大气环流异常是上述全球重大天气气候事件的直接原因;此外,全球变暖背景下西风基本流偏弱,环流经向度加大、移速减缓和大气环流异常的持续性增强,也为极端事件的发生提供了有利的动力背景。 相似文献
5.
2010年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
2009/2010年冬季,英国等欧洲国家经历自1981年来持续时间最长的寒流;2010年2月27日,罕见强风暴“辛加(Xynthia)”袭击欧洲多国;季风季节,巴基斯坦遭遇80年来最严重的暴雨洪涝;7～8月中旬,俄罗斯的极端高温干旱引发多起森林火灾;7～9月,亚马逊部分地区经历40年来最严重的干旱;10月中旬,超强台风... 相似文献
6.
2008年全球重大天气气候事件概述 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
2008年,全球表面气温为有器测记录以来的第十暖年.年初,暴风雪、严寒、低温、雨雪和冰冻天气席卷欧洲东南部经中亚至中国的多个国家和地区,北美也频繁遭受暴风雪的袭击;中国北方出现严重冬春连旱;夏季,东亚、南亚、欧洲中东部、美国密西西比河流域等地遭受不同程度的暴雨洪涝;年内,澳大利亚持续干旱.5月,拉尼娜事件结束.1月,北半球积雪面积达到历史最大值.2008年,西北太平洋热带气旋活动较常年异常偏少,大西洋飓风活动接近常年. 相似文献
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2007年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
2007年2月热带气旋"Gamède"在法属留尼旺创下72 h降水3 929 mm的世界纪录;5月末莫斯科气温达到1891年以来同期的最高温度;截止8月底美国一半以上的地区干旱缺水.2007年我国云南、甘肃、河南、湖南和江西等地经历50年不遇的干旱;7月淮河发生仅次于1954年的流域性大洪水.2007年全球平均温度比过去30年的平均温度高出0.41 ℃.同时,今年北极海冰覆盖面积减小到历史记录的最小值.世界许多地方发生破坏性洪水、干旱和风暴等极端天气和气候事件. 相似文献
10.
2023年,全球平均气温比工业化前高出约1.45℃(±0.12℃),是有观测记录以来最热的一年。全球海平面继续上升,且全球平均海平面达到了有卫星记录(1993年至今)以来的最高水平,反映了持续的海洋变暖以及冰川和冰盖的融化。北极海冰面积仍远低于常年值,南极海冰面积创下历史新低。巴基斯坦、中国京津冀地区、意大利、巴西圣保罗州北部沿海地区、新西兰北岛等地遭受暴雨洪涝灾害,非洲西北部、中国云南、中美洲和南美洲北部发生严重干旱,南欧、北美、南美、东亚和南亚等地遭遇创纪录高温热浪,欧洲和北美等地遭遇寒流和暴风雪侵袭,强对流天气频繁袭击世界各处,全球热带气旋活动频繁。 相似文献
11.
Summary Since 1995 there has been a resurgence of Atlantic hurricane activity, with 2005 being the most active and destructive hurricane
season on record. The influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) upon trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is investigated
by considering SSTs in the southern tropical North Atlantic, an area known as the main development region (MDR). Significant
differences in hurricane activity are observed when comparing the ten coolest and ten warmest years of SSTs in the MDR for
the period spanning from 1941 to 2006, with increasing MDR SSTs linked to the increased duration and frequency of tropical
cyclones. It is concluded that future increases in SSTs, as climate models project, could result in increased Atlantic basin
hurricane activity. Understanding how oceanic processes affecting the MDR may change with climate change could therefore help
increase the predictive capability for hurricane activity.
Authors’ addresses: Paul A. Steenhof, 50 Hendrick, Chelsea, Quebec, J9B 1M1 Canada; William A. Gough, Department of Physical
and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Scarborough, Ontario, Canada 相似文献
12.
A. A. Alekseeva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(1):1-8
In contrast to the common opinion, hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones are a quite frequent phenomenon followed by huge damage, especially in densely populated areas. This phenomenon has been poorly studied and is hardly predictable so far. The features of hurricane winds in extratropical cyclones, and the similarity and difference in their structure as compared to those in tropical cyclones are revealed. 相似文献
13.
Chanh Q. Kieu 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,115(1-2):47-56
The radius of the maximum tangential wind (RMW) associated with the hurricane primary circulation has been long known to undergo continuous contraction during the hurricane development. In this study, we document some characteristic behaviors of the RMW contraction in a series of ensemble real-time simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) and in idealized experiments using the Rotunno and Emanuel (Mon Weather Rev 137:1770–1789, 1987) axisymmetric hurricane model. Of specific interest is that the contraction appears to slow down abruptly at the middle of the hurricane intensification, and the RMW becomes nearly stationary subsequently, despite the rapidly strengthening rotational flows. A kinematic model is then presented to examine such behaviors of the RMW in which necessary conditions for the RMW to stop contracting are examined. Further use of the Emanuel’s (J Atmos Sci 43:585–605, 1986) analytical hurricane theory reveals a connection between the hurricane maximum potential intensity and the hurricane eye size, an issue that has not been considered adequately in previous studies. 相似文献
14.
Summary Hurricanes cause a variety of damage due to high winds, heavy rains, and storm surges. This study focuses on hurricanes’
high winds. The most devastating effects of sustained high winds occur in the first few hours of landfall. During the short
period, hurricanes’ rainfall often increases, while the low-level pressure gradients continue to weaken. Latent heating does
not appear to strengthen the surface winds. The indicator is that dry mechanisms such as the boundary layer processes and
terrain are responsible for the damaging winds in the coastal areas. In this study, the design of a dry hurricane boundary
layer wind model is described. The goal is to develop a forecast tool with near-real time applications in expeditious wind
damage assessment and disaster mitigation during a hurricane landfall event.
Different surface roughness lengths and topographic features ranging from flat land to the mountainous terrain of Taiwan were
used in the model simulation experiments to reveal how the coastal environment affected the hurricane surface winds. The model
performed quite well in all cases. The experiments suggested that the downward transfer of high momentum aloft played a significant
role in the maintenance of high wind speeds at the surface. The surface wind maximums were observed on the lee sides of high
terrain. The surface streamline analyses showed that the high mountains tended to block the relatively weak flow and caused
small eddies, while they forced the stronger flow to turn around the mountains.
Due to great difficulty in data collection, the hurricane boundary layer over land remains one of the least understood parts
of the system. The dry model proves to be an effective way to study many aspects of hurricane boundary layer winds over a
wide range of terrain features and landfall sites. The model runs efficiently and can be run on a medium-size personal computer.
Received March 16, 2001 Revised September 10, 2001 相似文献
15.
Kelsey N. Scheitlin James B. Elsner Shawn W. Lewers Jill C. Malmstadt Thomas H. Jagger 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,105(3-4):287-296
Hurricane winds present a significant hazard for coastal infrastructure. An estimate of the local risk of extreme wind speeds is made using a new method that combines historical hurricane records with a deterministic wind field model. The method is applied to Santa Rosa Island located in the northwestern panhandle region of Florida, USA. Firstly, a hurricane track is created for a landfall location on the island that represents the worst-case scenario for Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB). The track is based on averaging the paths of historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the landfall location. Secondly, an extreme-value statistical model is used to estimate 100-year wind speeds at locations along the average track based again on historical hurricanes in the vicinity of the track locations. Thirdly, the 100-year wind speeds together with information about hurricane size and forward speed are used as input to the HAZUS hurricane wind field model to produce a wind swath across EAFB. Results show a 100-year hurricane wind gust on Santa Rosa Island of 58 (±5) m?s?1 (90% CI). A 100-year wind gust at the same location based on a 105-year simulation of hurricanes is lower at 55?m?s?1, but within the 90% confidence limits. Based on structural damage functions and building stock data for the region, the 100-year hurricane wind swath results in $574 million total loss to residential and commercial buildings, not including military infrastructure, with 25% of all buildings receiving at least some damage. This methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and adapted to predict extreme winds and their impacts under climate variability and change. 相似文献
16.
Prof. Dr T. N. Krishnamurti Wei Han D. Oosterhof 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1998,65(3-4):171-181
Summary Intensity forecasts of a hurricane are shown to be quite sensitive to the initial meso-convective scale precipitation distributions. These are included within the data assimilation using a physical initialization that was developed at Florida State University. We show a case study of a hurricane forecast where the inclusion of the observed precipitation did provide reasonable intensity forecasts. Further experimentation with the inclusion or exclusion of individual meso-convective rainfall elements, around and over the storm, shows that the intensity forecasts were quite sensitive to these initial rainfall distributions. The exclusion of initial rain in the inner rain area of a hurricane leads to a much reduced intensity forecast, whereas that impact is less if the rainfall of an outer rain band was initially excluded.Intensity forecasts of hurricanes may be sensitive to a number of factors such as sea surface temperature anomalies, presence or absence of concentric eye walls, potential vorticity interactions in the upper troposphere and other environmental factors.This paper is a sequel to a recent study, Krishnamurti et al., 1997, on the prediction of hurricane OPAL of 1995 that was a category III storm over the Gulf of Mexico. In that study we showed successful forecasts of the storm intensity from the inclusion of observed rainfall distributions within physical initialization. In that paper we examined the issues of diabatic potential vorticity and the angular momentum in order to diagnose the storm intensity. All of the terms of the complete Ertel potential vorticity equation were evaluated and it was concluded that the diabatic contributions to the potential vorticity were quite important for the diagnosis of the storm's intensity. The present paper addresses some sensitivity issues related to the individual mesoconvective precipitating elements.With 4 Figures 相似文献
17.
AIRS资料质量控制对飓风路径模拟的影响试验 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
对WRFDA模式中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案进行了检验,并以美国Earl飓风为例进行数值试验,研究了质量控制方案对飓风路径模拟的影响。试验结果表明:WRFDA模式中11条质量控制原则对红外高光谱AIRS亮温资料的同化效果影响很大,不论是加入逐条质量控制原则,还是缺席某条质量控制原则,飓风路径的模拟情况都比不上控制试验;而在所有质量控制原则都加入之后,在大部分模拟时段内同化试验中模拟的飓风路径偏差都要小于控制试验,而且同化试验中最大路径偏差也小于控制试验。不同的质量控制原则对观测资料的过滤能力也不一样,其中地表发射率Jacobian分量检测、临边检测、云检测和SST检测等4个质量控制原则剔除卫星资料数量相对较多。本文中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案的对比试验,可以为中国发展红外高光谱卫星系统提供非常有益的借鉴和参考。 相似文献
18.
Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Mir Emad Mousavi Jennifer L. Irish Ashley E. Frey Francisco Olivera Billy L. Edge 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):575-597
Tens of millions of people around the world are already exposed to coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Global warming has the potential to increase hurricane flooding, both by hurricane intensification and by sea level rise. In this paper, the impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise are evaluated using hydrodynamic surge models and by considering the future climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the Corpus Christi, Texas, United States study region, mean projections indicate hurricane flood elevation (meteorologically generated storm surge plus sea level rise) will, on average, rise by 0.3 m by the 2030s and by 0.8 m by the 2080s. For catastrophic-type hurricane surge events, flood elevations are projected to rise by as much as 0.5 m and 1.8 m by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively. 相似文献
19.
Most, if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct, with doubled atmospheric CO2 (2 × CO2), the tropical Atlantic will be between 1 °C and 4 °C warmer than it is today. With such a warming, more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean. Furthermore, Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative, these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented.An individual tree, gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible, ranging from mature forest with large trees, to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity. 相似文献
20.
Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Christopher W. Landsea Roger A. Pielke Jr. Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez John A. Knaff 《Climatic change》1999,42(1):89-129
Accurate records of basinwide Atlantic and U.S. landfalling hurricanes extend back to the mid 1940s and the turn of the century, respectively, as a result of aircraft reconnaissance and instrumented weather stations along the U.S. coasts. Such long-term records are not exceeded elsewhere in the tropics. The Atlantic hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes and U.S. normalized damage time series are examined for interannual trends and multidecadal variability. It is found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to the hurricane activity and that multidecadal variability is more characteristic of the region. Various environmental factors including Caribbean sea level pressures and 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, African West Sahel rainfall and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are analyzed for interannual links to the Atlantic hurricane activity. All show significant, concurrent relationships to the frequency, intensity and duration of Atlantic hurricanes. Additionally, variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are significantly linked to changes in U.S. tropical cyclone-caused damages. Finally, much of the multidecadal hurricane activity can be linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode - an empirical orthogonal function pattern derived from a global sea surface temperature record. Such linkages may allow for prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity on a multidecadal basis. These results are placed into the context of climate change and natural hazards policy. 相似文献