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1.
SH evaluation in Po Plain region is revisited with a view to: ( $a)$ updating available seismic source and ground motion attenuation models with recent data and testing the sensitivity of the results, ( $b)$ exploiting available non-stationary models to check their predictive performance at particular sites and, ( $c)$ handling the ground motion hazard generated by composite fault systems. Update of area source models and GMPEs does not strongly affect SH evaluated at representative sites, while usefulness of predictions derived from non-stationary models needs to be assessed on a site-by-site basis. A hybrid (deterministic-probabilistic) approach seems to be a promising tool for assessing site-specific hazard contributed by composite sources.  相似文献   

2.
This paper considers a problem of analyzing temporal and spatial structure of particulate matter (PM) data with emphasizing high-level \(\text {PM}_{10}\). The proposed method is based on a combination of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and a multiscale concept from scaling property theory used in hydrology. In this study, we use hourly \(\text {PM}_{10}\) data observed for 5 years on 25 stations located in Seoul metropolitan area, Korea. For our analysis, we calculate monthly maximum values for various duration times and area coverages at each station, and show that their distribution follows a GEV distribution. In addition, we identify that the GEV parameters of \(\text {PM}_{10}\) maxima hold a new scaling property, termed ‘piecewise linear scaling property’ for certain duration times. By using this property, we construct a 12-month return level map of hourly \(\text {PM}_{10}\) data at any arbitrary d-hour duration. Furthermore, we extend our study to understand spatio-temporal multiscale structure of \(\text {PM}_{10}\) extremes over different temporal and spatial scales.  相似文献   

3.
Populus euphratica is a dominant tree species in riparian Tugai forests and forms a natural barrier that maintains the stability of local oases in arid inland river basins. Despite being critical information for local environmental protection and recovery, establishing the specific spatial distribution of P. euphratica has rarely been attempted via precise and reliable species distribution models in such areas. In this research, the potential geographic distribution of P. euphratica in the Heihe River Basin was simulated with MaxEnt software based on species occurrence data and 29 environmental variables. The result showed that in the Heihe River Basin, 820 km2 of land primarily distributed along the banks of the lower reaches of the river is a suitable habitat for P. euphratica. We built other MaxEnt models based on different environmental variables and another eight models employing different mathematical algorithms based on the same 29 environmental variables to demonstrate the superiority of this method. MaxEnt based on 29 environmental variables performed the best among these models, as it precisely described the essential characteristics of the distribution of P. euphratica forest land. This study verified that MaxEnt can serve as an effective tool for species distribution in extremely arid regions with sufficient and reliable environmental variables. The results suggest that there may be a larger area of P. euphratica forest distribution in the study area and that ecological conservation and management of P. euphratica should prioritize suitable habitat. This research provides valuable insights for the conservation and management of degraded P. euphratica riparian forests.  相似文献   

4.
In this paper we present a stochastic model reduction method for efficiently solving nonlinear unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous random porous media. The input random fields of flow model are parameterized in a stochastic space for simulation. This often results in high stochastic dimensionality due to small correlation length of the covariance functions of the input fields. To efficiently treat the high-dimensional stochastic problem, we extend a recently proposed hybrid high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) technique to high-dimensional problems with multiple random input fields and integrate it with a sparse grid stochastic collocation method (SGSCM). Hybrid HDMR can decompose the high-dimensional model into a moderate M-dimensional model and a few one-dimensional models. The moderate dimensional model only depends on the most M important random dimensions, which are identified from the full stochastic space by sensitivity analysis. To extend the hybrid HDMR, we consider two different criteria for sensitivity test. Each of the derived low-dimensional stochastic models is solved by the SGSCM. This leads to a set of uncoupled deterministic problems at the collocation points, which can be solved by a deterministic solver. To demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method, a few numerical experiments are carried out for the unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous porous media with different correlation lengths. The results show that a good trade-off between computational complexity and approximation accuracy can be achieved for stochastic unconfined flow problems by selecting a suitable number of the most important dimensions in the M-dimensional model of hybrid HDMR.  相似文献   

5.
《Continental Shelf Research》2006,26(12-13):1433-1447
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6.
Patuxent landscape model: 1. Hydrological model development   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
We developed a spatially explicit, process-based model of the 2352 km2 Patuxent river watershed in Maryland, and its subwatersheds to integrate data and knowledge over several spatial, temporal and complexity scales, and to serve as an aid to regional management. The model was developed using the Library of Hydro-Ecological Modules (LHEM, http://giee.uvm.edu/LHEM), which was designed to create flexible landscape model structures that can be easily modified and extended to suit the requirements of a variety of goals and case studies. The LHEM includes modules that simulate various aspects of ecosystem dynamics. In this paper we consider modules that represent the physical conditions in the environment (climatic factors, geoporphology), and hydrologic processes, both locally and spatially. Where possible the modules are formulated as Stella(R) models, spatial transport processes are presented as C++ code.  相似文献   

7.
Bayesian modelling of health risks in relation to environmental exposures offers advantages over conventional (non-Bayesian) modelling approaches. We report an example using research into whether, after controlling for different confounders, air pollution (NOx) has a significant effect on coronary heart disease mortality, estimating the relative risk associated with different levels of exposure. We use small area data from Sheffield, England and describe how the data were assembled. We compare the results obtained using a generalized (Poisson) log-linear model with adjustment for overdispersion, with the results obtained using a hierarchical (Poisson) log-linear model with spatial random effects. Both classes of models were fitted using a Bayesian approach. Including spatial random effects models both overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation effects arising as a result of analysing data from small contiguous areas. The first modelling framework has been widely used, while the second provides a more rigorous model for hypothesis testing and risk estimation when data refer to small areas. When the models are fitted controlling only for the age and sex of the populations, the generalized log-linear model shows NOx effects are significant at all levels, whereas the hierarchical log-linear model with spatial random effects shows significant effects only at higher levels. We then adjust for deprivation and smoking prevalence. Uncertainty in the estimates of smoking prevalence, arising because the data are based on samples, was accounted for through errors-in-variables modelling. NOx effects apparently are significant at the two highest levels according to both modelling frameworks.
Paul BrindleyEmail:
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8.
Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.  相似文献   

9.
The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M w ? ≥?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.  相似文献   

10.
We established a three-dimensional finite element model of the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Xiaojiang faults region using contact surfaces of different sizes to describe the spatial segmentation characteristics of the faults. Our model is based on constraints from GPS observations, models of the crust and upper mantle, precise earthquake locations, the tectonic stress field, the slip rate of the faults, and the rheology of the lithosphere in the Sichuan-Yunnan area. Considering the influence of strong earthquakes since A.D. 1327, we analyzed the main controlling factors of the characteristics of the strong earthquakes and also studied by numerical simulation the possible areas of future earthquake risk and their relationship with tectonic stress. The numerical results showed that the gravitational potential energy of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the interaction of adjacent blocks are the main kinetic factors affecting the characteristics of the tectonic stress distribution. There appears to be some correspondence between the distribution of tectonic stress and the b value; however, we also found that some low b value locations correspond to regions of lower stress. This contradiction may be the result of some comprehensive factors, such as the release of strain energy caused by strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
Accurate and precise estimation of return levels is often a key goal of any extreme value analysis. For example, in the UK the British Standards Institution (BSI) incorporate estimates of ‘once-in-50-year wind gust speeds’—or 50-year return levels—into their design codes for new structures; similarly, the Dutch Delta Commission use estimates of the 10,000-year return level for sea-surge to aid the construction of flood defence systems. In this paper, we briefly highlight the shortcomings of standard methods for estimating return levels, including the commonly-adopted block maxima and peaks over thresholds approach, before presenting an estimation framework which we show can substantially increase the precision of return level estimates. Our work allows explicit quantification of seasonal effects, as well as exploiting recent developments in the estimation of the extremal index for handling extremal clustering. From frequentist ideas, we turn to the Bayesian paradigm as a natural approach for building complex hierarchical or spatial models for extremes. Through simulations we show that the return level posterior mean does not have an exceedance probability in line with the intended encounter risk; we also argue that the Bayesian posterior predictive value gives the most satisfactory representation of a return level for use in practice, accounting for uncertainty in parameter estimation and future observations. Thus, where feasible, we propose a Bayesian estimation strategy for optimal return level inference.  相似文献   

12.
Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.  相似文献   

13.
Uncertainties in some key parameters in land surface models severely restrict the improvement of model capacity for successful simulation of surface-atmosphere interaction. These key parameters are related to soil moisture and heat transfer and physical processes in the vegetation canopy as well as other important aerodynamic processes. In the present study, measurements of surface-atmosphere interaction at two observation stations that are located in the typical semi-arid region of China, Tongyu Station in Jilin Province and Yuzhong Station in Gansu Province, are combined with the planetary boundary layer theory to estimate the value of two key aerodynamic parameters, i.e., surface roughness length z0m and excess resistance κB-1. Multiple parameterization schemes have been used in the study to obtain values for surface roughness length and excess resistance κB-1 at the two stations. Results indicate that z0m has distinct seasonal and inter-annual variability. For the type of surface with low-height vegetation, there is a large difference between the default value of z0m in the land surface model and that obtained from this study. κB-1 demonstrates a significant diurnal variation and seasonal variability. Using the modified scheme for the estimation of z0m and κB-1 in the land surface model, it is found that simulations of sensible heat flux over the semi-arid region have been greatly improved. These results suggest that it is necessary to further evaluate the default values of various parameters used in land surface models based on field measurements. The approach to combine field measurements with atmospheric boundary layer theory to retrieve realistic values for key parameters in land surface models presents a great potential in the improvement of modeling studies of surface-atmosphere interaction.  相似文献   

14.
Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis.  相似文献   

15.
Terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by vascular plants that form a mosaic of hydraulic conduits to water movement from the soil to the atmosphere. Together with canopy leaf area, canopy stomatal conductance regulates plant water use and thereby photosynthesis and growth. Although stomatal conductance is coordinated with plant hydraulic conductance, governing relationships across species has not yet been formulated at a practical level that can be employed in large-scale models. Here, combinations of published conductance measurements obtained with several methodologies across boreal to tropical climates were used to explore relationships between canopy conductance rates and hydraulic constraints. A parsimonious hydraulic model requiring sapwood-to-leaf area ratio and canopy height generated acceptable agreement with measurements across a range of biomes (r2=0.75)(r2=0.75). The results suggest that, at long time scales, the functional convergence among ecosystems in the relationship between water-use and hydraulic architecture eclipses inter-specific variation in physiology and anatomy of the transport system. Prognostic applicability of this model requires independent knowledge of sapwood-to-leaf area. In this study, we did not find a strong relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and physical or climatic variables that are readily determinable at coarse scales, though the results suggest that climate may have a mediating influence on the relationship between sapwood-to-leaf area and height. Within temperate forests, canopy height alone explained a large amount of the variance in reference canopy conductance (r2=0.68)(r2=0.68) and this relationship may be more immediately applicable in the terrestrial ecosystem models.  相似文献   

16.
Chen  Wei  Cao  ChunXiang  He  QiSheng  Guo  HuaDong  Zhang  Hao  Li  RenQiang  Zheng  Sheng  Xu  Min  Gao  MengXu  Zhao  Jian  Li  Sha  Ni  XiLiang  Jia  HuiCong  Ji  Wei  Tian  Rong  Liu  Cheng  Zhao  YuXing  Li  JingLu 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2010,53(1):26-33
The leaf area index (LAI) is an important ecological parameter that characterizes the interface between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere. In addition, it is used by most process-oriented ecosystem models. This paper investigates the potential of HJ-1 CCD data combined with linear spectral unmixing and an inverted geometric-optical model for the retrieval of the shrub LAI in Wushen Banner of Inner Mongolia in the Mu Us Sandland. MODTRAN (Moderate Resolution Atmospheric Radiance and Transmittance Model) was used for atmospheric correction. Shrubland was extracted using the threshold of the normalized difference vegetation index, with which water bodies and farmland were separated, in combination with a vegetation map of the People’s Republic of China (1:1000000). Using the geometric-optical model, we derive the per-pixel reflectance as a simple linear combination of two components, namely sunlit background and other. The fraction of sunlit background is related to the shrub LAI. With the support of HJ-1 CCD data, we employ linear spectral unmixing to obtain the fraction of sunlit background in an atmospherically corrected HJ image. In addition, we use the measured shrub canopy structural parameters for shrub communities to invert the geometric-optical model and retrieve the pixel-based shrub LAI. In total, 18 sample plots collected in Wushen Banner of Inner Mongolia are used for validation. The results of the shrub LAI show good agreement with R 2 of 0.817 and a root-mean-squared error of 0.173.  相似文献   

17.
In this work, we map the absorption properties of the French crust by analyzing the decay properties of coda waves. Estimation of the coda quality factor \(Q_{c}\) in five non-overlapping frequency-bands between 1 and 32 Hz is performed for more than 12,000 high-quality seismograms from about 1700 weak to moderate crustal earthquakes recorded between 1995 and 2013. Based on sensitivity analysis, \(Q_{c}\) is subsequently approximated as an integral of the intrinsic shear wave quality factor \(Q_{i}\) along the ray connecting the source to the station. After discretization of the medium on a 2-D Cartesian grid, this yields a linear inverse problem for the spatial distribution of \(Q_{i}\). The solution is approximated by redistributing \(Q_{c}\) in the pixels connecting the source to the station and averaging over all paths. This simple procedure allows to obtain frequency-dependent maps of apparent absorption that show lateral variations of \(50\%\) at length scales ranging from 50 km to 150 km, in all the frequency bands analyzed. At low frequency, the small-scale geological features of the crust are clearly delineated: the Meso-Cenozoic basins (Aquitaine, Brabant, Southeast) appear as strong absorption regions, while crystalline massifs (Armorican, Central Massif, Alps) appear as low absorption zones. At high frequency, the correlation between the surface geological features and the absorption map disappears, except for the deepest Meso-Cenozoic basins which exhibit a strong absorption signature. Based on the tomographic results, we explore the implications of lateral variations of absorption for the analysis of both instrumental and historical seismicity. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) current local magnitude \(M_{L}\) can be over(resp. under)-estimated when absorption is weaker(resp. stronger) than the nominal value assumed in the amplitude-distance relation; (2) both the forward prediction of the earthquake macroseismic intensity field and the estimation of historical earthquake seismological parameters using macroseismic intensity data are significantly improved by taking into account a realistic 2-D distribution of absorption. In the future, both \(M_{L}\) estimations and macroseismic intensity attenuation models should benefit from high-resolution models of frequency-dependent absorption such as the one produced in this study.  相似文献   

18.
In the Tarim Basin, black shale series at the bottom of Cambrian is one of the important marine facies hydrocarbon source rocks. This research focuses on the analysis of the isotope of noble gas of 11 cherts. The R/R a ratio of chert in the Keping area is 0.032–0.319, and 40Ar/36Ar is 338–430. In Quruqtagh the R/R a ratio is 0.44–10.21, and 40Ar/36Ar is 360–765. The R/R a ratio of chert increases with 40Ar/36Ar from the west to the east accordingly. They have evolved from the crust source area to the mantle source area in a direct proportion. Surplus argon 40ArE in chert is in direct proportion to the R/R a ratio, indicating that it has the same origin of excess argon as in fluid and mantle source helium. Comparison of the R/R a ratios between the west and the east shows that the chert in the eastern part formed from the activity system of the bottom hydrothermal venting driven by the mantle source, where the material and energy of crust and mantle had a strong interaction in exchange; whereas in the western part, chert deposited from the floating of hydrothermal plume undersea bottom, which is far away from the centre of activities of the hydrothermal fluid of ocean bottom. In addition, from noble gas isotope composition of chert, it is suggested that the ocean anoxia incident happened at the black shale of the Cambrian bottom probably because of the large-scaled ocean volcanoes and the following hydrothermal activities.  相似文献   

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20.
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