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1.
Land use change has a significant effect on water balance, especially in arid region, such as Northwest China. In this paper, we analyze the effect of land use change on water balance in terms of the amount of water supply and demand from economic perspective. It's the first time to extend the basic 48 sectors input-output table to include water and land accounts that involved into multiple production processes for Zhangye city. We then perform the improved ORANI-G model, a single region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to analyze the effect of land use change on water balance under three scenarios. Subsequently, scenario-based simulation results are interpreted through selected sectors from agricultural, industrial, and service sectors respectively. Finally, the effect of land use change on water balance is analyzed through the difference between business-as-usual and land use unchanged scenarios. The results show that the extent of effect on water balance is different among sectors. Specifically, from the perspective of absolute value, service sectors are the largest, followed by industrial sectors, and the agricultural sectors are the least. Conversely, in terms of percentage change of land use, the largest extent of effect occurs in agricultural sectors. Additionally, with the rapid urbanization and the development of social economy, water balance in industrial sectors and service sectors will be stricken and reconstructed to a new high level. Simulation results also show that agricultural land shrinking will mitigate water scarcity distinctly, which indicates that balance the relationship among different stakeholders is imperative to guarantee water transformation from agricultural sectors to industrial and service sectors.  相似文献   

2.
Indices characterizing the withdrawal of water resources in the basins of rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea and the use of these resources in different economic sectors in 1970–2003 are analyzed. The dynamics of disposal of wastewaters and collector-drainage waters is discussed. Tendencies in changes in the volumes of consumptive water use in the basins of individual rivers and the Caspian Sea as a whole are identified.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

This investigation presents a new approach to estimate the costs resulting from the introduction of environmental flows in the arid Huasco River basin, located in the Atacama Region of Chile, one of the most sophisticated private water markets worldwide. The aim is to provide information to the water users, who hold the right to decide on water use, and thereby support the inclusion of environmental flows into decision-making. Costs are estimated by calculating the loss of agricultural productivity resulting from a trade-off between users and environmental flow requirements in times of water scarcity. Based on environmental flow requirements calculated by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and hydrological supply-and-demand modelling using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, economic parameters of water productivity are calculated for the main economic sectors and then included in hydrological analysis. The study presents concrete costs that might be imposed on the water users during times of water scarcity, and confirms that there are significant variations in water productivity between different sectors.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Wagnitz, P., Núñez, J., and Ribbe, L., 2014. Cost of environmental flow during water scarcity in the arid Huasco River basin, northern Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 700–712.  相似文献   

4.
Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 km3/year during 1998–2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 km3/year during 1998–2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 km3/year of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/year of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.  相似文献   

5.
Wastewater effluents from irrigation and the domestic and industrial sectors have serious impacts in deteriorating water quality in many rivers, particularly in areas under tidal influence. There is a need to develop an approach that considers the impact of human and natural causes of salinization. This study uses a multi-objective optimization–simulation model to investigate and describe the interactions of such impacts in the Shatt al-Arab River, Iraq. The developed model is able to reproduce the salinity distribution in the river given varying conditions. The salinity regime in the river varies according to different hydrological conditions and anthropogenic activities. Due to tidal effects, salinity caused by drainage water is seen to intrude further upstream into the river. The applied approach provides a way to obtain optimal solutions where both river salinity and deficit in water supply can be minimized. The approach is used for exploring the trade-off between these two objectives.  相似文献   

6.
Economic value of water and economic analysis of water use management in Gansu Province of China have attracted widespread public attention. With the socioeconomic development, research on water resources has become more important than before. In this study, we define “water productivity” as the changes of economic production outputs of sectoral activities in every cubic meter of water input, which is also the technical coefficient of water resource use in each sector. According to Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework, based on the Input–Output Table 2007 and water resources bulletin of Gansu Province, we introduced the water into the ORANI-G (A Generic Single-Country Computable General Equilibrium model) model through the nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function to analyze the changes of economic productions caused by water supply changes. We then examined water productivity in different sectors. Empirical results showed that current water productivity is underestimated. Agricultural water productivity is lower than that of the secondary and tertiary industries, even although agricultural water use is the largest part of water use in Gansu Province, and therefore improving agricultural water productivity can greatly mitigate the water shortage. Simulation results indicate that industrial transformation and development of water-saving industries will also mitigate water scarcity. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that the empirical results are robust under different scenarios. The results also show that higher constant elasticity of substitution rate (CES) between water and other production factors will contribute to sustainable development.  相似文献   

7.
The paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted to analyse water resources availability and demand in the Mahanadi River Basin in India under climate change conditions. Climate change impact analysis was carried out for the years 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100, for the months of September and April (representing wet and dry months), at a sub‐catchment level. A physically based distributed hydrologic model (DHM) was used for estimation of the present water availability. For future scenarios under climate change conditions, precipitation output of Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM2) was used as the input data for the DHM. The model results show that the highest increase in peak runoff (38%) in the Mahanadi River outlet will occur during September, for the period 2075–2100 and the maximum decrease in average runoff (32·5%) will be in April, for the period 2050–2075. The outcomes indicate that the Mahanadi River Basin is expected to experience progressively increasing intensities of flood in September and drought in April over the considered years. The sectors of domestic, irrigation and industry were considered for water demand estimation. The outcomes of the analysis on present water use indicated a high water abstraction by the irrigation sector. Future water demand shows an increasing trend until 2050, beyond which the demand will decrease owing to the assumed regulation of population explosion. From the simulated future water availability and projected water demand, water stress was computed. Among the six sub‐catchments, the sub‐catchment six shows the peak water demand. This study hence emphasizes on the need for re‐defining water management policies, by incorporating hydrological response of the basin to the long‐term climate change, which will help in developing appropriate flood and drought mitigation measures at the basin level. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Historically, there has been a dispute over water allocation between users and policymakers in Iran's Zayandeh-Roud Basin (ZRB). In this study, we used the “System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water” (SEEAW) framework in combination with the hydrologic model “Soil and Water Assessment Tool” (SWAT) to achieve the water balance in ZRB. We used SEEAW to combine a wide range of water-related statistics across stakeholders and SWAT to evaluate the unknown agricultural water use. The SWAT model is calibrated based on the stream flows and crop yields in the basin. The model assess the renewable water of the basin into two components, about 363 and 70 mm as green and blue water, respectively. Also results from the physical water supply and water use tables demonstrates that the agricultural sector uses 78% of the total renewable freshwater, followed by the residential, 16%, and the industrial sector, 6%. The flows of water from source to services in ZRB are traced based on the water supply and water use tables. The flow diagram shows that 8 MCM of industrial reused water was transferred to the agricultural sector, and 137 MCM and 18 MCM of water from the wastewater treatment plants to the agricultural and industrial sectors, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the index of the basin dependence on groundwater resources is high (61%), the value of water stress is high (0.88) and the dependence of the basin on transboundary water resources is 30%. Therefore, this method is highly beneficial for achieving a conceptual water balance in disputed basins without enough agricultural water uses data.  相似文献   

9.
The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, the vibratory characteristics of a rectangular plate in contact with water on one side are studied. The elastic plate is considered to be a part of a vertical rectangular rigid wall in contact with water, the edges of which are elastically restrained and parallel to those of the rigid wall. The location and size of the plate on the rigid wall may vary arbitrarily. The water with a free surface is in a rectangular domain infinite in the length direction. The effects of free surface waves, compressibility of the water and the hydrostatic water pressure are neglected in the analysis. An analytical‐Ritz method is developed to analyse the interaction of the plate–water system. First of all, by using the method of separation of variables and the method of Fourier series expansion, the exact expression of the motion of water is derived in the form of integral equations including the dynamic deformation of the plate. Then the Rayleigh–Ritz approach is used to derive the eigenfrequency equation of the system via the variational principle of energy. By selecting beam vibrating functions as the admissible functions of the plate, the added virtual mass incremental (AVMI) matrices for plate vibration are obtained. The convergency studies are carried out. The effects of some parameters such as the depth and width of water, the support stiffnesses, location and aspect ratio of the plate and the plate–water size and density ratios on the eigenfrequencies of the plate–water system are investigated. Several numerical examples are given. The validity of AVMI factor approach is also confirmed by comparing the AVMI factor solutions with the analytical‐Ritz solutions. The results show that the approach presented here can also be used as excellent approximate solutions for rectangular plates in contact with water of infinite width and/or infinite depth. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
This research assesses the severity of future water scarcity and its impact on the growth of human civilization through system dynamics modeling of the world at regional level. Six sectors of activities are modeled in each continent to represent the human society. Continental interactions such as migration and trade are also modeled to express the synergy of activities among the various continents. Results of the model simulations from 1960 to 2100 show that water scarcity, unlike other limitations such as nonrenewable resources and persistent pollution, gives severe, detrimental problems within short delays after its occurrence.  相似文献   

12.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1018-1034
Abstract

A conceptual hydrological water balance model has been developed and employed to assess the water availability in a mid-Himalayan watershed and analyse the dynamics of water supply and its utilization under different scenarios arising out of present and future developments. The model was calibrated and validated using daily runoff and rainfall data at different locations in the watershed. The water availability in streams and springs to meet the human, animal and crop requirements was assessed, and was found to vary in different quarters of the year with inequalities existing in different parts of the watershed. The model was successfully applied to analyse the impact of land-use changes and weather aberrations on water availability in the present and future scenarios. The drought scenarios are more critical in causing water scarcity in a given location, compared to the impact of land-use changes. The findings can be applied for assessing, planning and allocation of water resources among different sectors of water use in hilly areas and to make informed decisions during critical periods of water scarcity.  相似文献   

13.
Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country’s water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.  相似文献   

14.
Evaporative flux is a key component of hydrological budgets. Water loss through evapotranspiration reduces volumes available for run‐off. The transition from liquid to water vapour on open water surfaces requires heat. Consequently, evaporation act as a cooling mechanism during summer. Both river discharge and water temperature simulations are thus influenced by the methods used to model evaporation. In this paper, the impact of evapotranspiration estimation methods on simulated discharge is assessed using a semidistributed model on two Canadian watersheds. The impact of evaporation estimation methods on water temperature simulations is also evaluated. Finally, the validity of using the same formulation to simulate both of these processes is verified. Five well‐known evapotranspiration models and five evaporation models with different wind functions were tested. Results show a large disparity (18–22% of mean annual total evapotranspiration) among the evapotranspiration methods, leading to important differences in simulated discharge (3–25% of observed discharge). Larger differences result from evaporation estimation methods with mean annual divergences of 34–48%. This translates into a difference in mean summer water temperature of 1–15%. Results also show that the choice of model parameter has less influence than the choice of evapotranspiration method in discharge simulations. However, the parameter values influence thermal simulations in the same order of magnitude as the choice of evaporation estimation method. Overall, the results of this study suggest that evapotranspiration and open water evaporation should be represented separately in a hydrological modelling framework, especially when water temperature simulations are required.  相似文献   

15.
The contradiction between the freshwater shortage and the large demand of freshwater by irrigation was the key point in cultivated lowland area of North China Plain. Water transfer project brings fresh water from water resource‐rich area to water shortage area, which can in turn change the hydrological cycle in this region. Major ions and stable isotopes were used to study the temporal variations of interaction between surface water and groundwater in a hydrological year after a water transfer event in November 2014. Irrigation canal received transferred Yellow River, with 2.9% loss by evaporation during water transfer process. The effect of transferred water on shallow groundwater decreased with increasing distance from the irrigation canal. Pit pond without water transfer receives groundwater discharge. During dry season after water transfer event, shallow groundwater near the irrigation canal was recharged by lateral seepage and deep percolation of irrigation, whereas shallow groundwater far from irrigation canal was recharged by deep percolation of deep groundwater irrigation. Canal water lost by evaporation was 2.7–17.4%. Influence of water transfer gradually disappeared until March as the water usage of agricultural irrigation increased. In the dry season, groundwater discharged to irrigation canal and pond; 2.2–31.6% canal water and 11.3–20.0% pond water were lost by evaporation. In the rainy season (June to September), surface water was fed mainly by precipitation and surface run‐off, whereas groundwater was recharged by infiltration of precipitation. The two‐end member mix model showed that the mixing ratio of precipitation in pond and irrigation canal were 73–83.4% (except one pond with 28.1%) and 77.3–99.9%, respectively. Transferred water and precipitation were the important recharge sources for shallow groundwater, which decreased groundwater salinity in cultivated lowland area of North China Plain. With the temporary and spatial limitation of water transfer effects, increased water transfer amounts and frequency may be an effective way of mitigating regional water shortage. In addition, reducing the evaporation of surface water is also an important way to increase the utilization of transfer water.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT

Appropriate allocation of limited freshwater resources to humans and ecosystems is an important issue hampering sustainable development in mountainous regions. The Taihang Mountain Region (TMR), including the Yellow and Hai river basins, is an important water source area for the North China Plain. The distributed hydrological model Water and Energy transfer Processes in Large river basins (WEP-L) was used to simulate the water cycle processes and to summarize the temporal and spatial changes in the blue and green water in the TMR from 1956 to 2015. The results show that in the period 2011–2015 the annual average blue water decreased by 7.31 × 109 m3, while the annual average green water increased by 13.60 × 109 m3 compared to 1956–1960. At the inter-annual time scale, the blue water exhibited a downward trend while the green water exhibited an upward trend. The amount of seasonal blue water in the TMR is ranked in descending order: summer, autumn, spring and winter, while for green water, the rank is summer, spring, autumn and winter. The amounts of blue and green water are higher on the windward than on the leeward slopes. The blue water yield is generally higher in forests and grasslands than in farmland, while the green water exhibits the opposite response. A greater emphasis should be placed on the widening gap between blue water and green water due to climate warming, and on soil and water conservation measures.  相似文献   

17.
Virtual water refers to the volumes of water required to produce a commodity or service. It reflects human’s actual consumption of water resources and therefore has certain significance in water resources management. Over the years, the concept of virtual water has caught the attentions of water manager and decision maker. In order to utilize this concept, the accounting and estimation of virtual water is the foundation that lies in this issue. Till now, the accounting methods mainly include the method provided by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), water footprint and input–output analysis method. In this paper, we chose Northwest China, which is a typical arid region that is facing with rapid economic development, as the study area and built an Input–Output (IO) analysis method to estimate virtual water among different industry sectors in the northwest China. The accounting and estimation results could be used to give suggestions to increase water use efficiency and promote virtual water trade in the study area. Comparison of the proposed method with other prevailing method was also analyzed. The introduced method could be utilized for accounting and estimation of virtual water by sectors, with its superiority in characterizing industrial water consumption and the accounting results could lend certain credence to the water resource management and industrial transformation for the future economic development of northwest China.  相似文献   

18.
The stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen (δ2H and δ18O, respectively) have been widely used to investigate tree water source partitioning. These tracers have shed new light on patterns of tree water use in time and space. However, there are several limiting factors to this methodology (e.g., the difficult assessment of isotope fractionation in trees, and the labor-intensity associated with the collection of significant sample sizes) and the use of isotopes alone has not been enough to provide a mechanistic understanding of source water partitioning. Here, we combine isotope data in xylem and soil water with measurements of tree's physiological information including tree water deficit (TWD), fine root distribution, and soil matric potential, to investigate the mechanism driving tree water source partitioning. We used a 2 m3 lysimeter with willow trees (Salix viminalis) planted within, to conduct a high spatial–temporal resolution experiment. TWD provided an integrated response of plant water status to water supply and demand. The combined isotopic and TWD measurement showed that short-term variation (within days) in source water partitioning is determined mainly by plant hydraulic response to changes in soil matric potential. We observed changes in the relationship between soil matric potential and TWD that are matched by shifts in source water partitioning. Our results show that tree water use is a dynamic process on the time scale of days. These findings demonstrate tree's plasticity to water supply over days can be identified with high-resolution measurements of plant water status. Our results further support that root distribution alone is not an indicator of water uptake dynamics. Overall, we show that combining physiological measurements with traditional isotope tracing can reveal mechanistic insights into plant responses to changing environmental conditions.  相似文献   

19.
This study demonstrates the importance of the including and appropriately parameterizing peatlands and forestlands for basin‐scale integrated surface–subsurface models in the northern boreal forest, with particular emphasis on the Athabasca River Basin (ARB). With a long‐term water balance approach to the ARB, we investigate reasons why downstream mean annual stream flow rates are consistently higher than upstream, despite the subhumid water deficit conditions in the downstream regimes. A high‐resolution 3D variably saturated subsurface and surface water flow and evapotranspiration model of the ARB is constructed based on the bedrock and surficial geology and the spatial distribution of peatlands and their corresponding eco‐regions. Historical climate data were used to drive the model for calibration against 40‐year long‐term average surface flow and groundwater observations during the historic instrumental period. The simulation results demonstrate that at the basin‐scale, peatlands and forestlands can have a strong influence on the surface–subsurface hydrologic systems. In particular, peatlands in the midstream and downstream regimes of the ARB increase the water availability to the surface–subsurface water systems by reducing water loss through evapotranspiration. Based on the comparison of forestland evapotranspiration between observation and simulation, the overall spatial average evapotranspiration in downstream forestlands is larger than that in peatlands and thus the water contribution to the stream flow in downstream areas is relatively minor. Therefore, appropriate representation of peatlands and forestlands within the basin‐scale hydrologic model is critical to reproduce the water balance of the ARB.  相似文献   

20.
Net primary productivity (NPP) lays the foundation for provision of various ecosystem services, and understanding the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP is of great significance to formulating appropriate management measures to guarantee the sustainable provision of essential ecosystem services. This study analyzed the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP in the lower Heihe River Basin, a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. First, NPP was estimated with the C-FIX model, and then the multilevel model was used to analyze the impacts of potential influencing factors on NPP during 2000–2008. Finally decomposition analysis was used to further analyze the contribution of influencing factors to NPP change during 2000–2008. The average NPP increased by approximately 9.07% during 2000–2008, and results of the multilevel model indicate that both the socioeconomic variables and demographic variables are useful in explaining NPP change. In particular, coefficients of rainfall and evapotranspiration which represent the water availability reached 0.0456 and 0.2956, respectively. Results of decomposition analysis suggested that the water availability played an important role in increasing NPP, with a contribution rate of 44.17%, and it is necessary to carry out some policies that can promote the water use efficiency to increase NPP under the background of climate change and intensified human activities. There are some uncertainties in the results of this study, but these results still can provide valuable reference information for the water resource management to increase the ecosystem service supply in the lower Heihe River Basin.  相似文献   

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