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1.
Li Ying 《中国地震研究》2005,19(2):192-200
We have studied the seismicity features of M_S≥5.0 earthquakes two years before strong earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 occurred in the central-northern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block since 1920. The results have showed that there is an obvious gap or quiescence of M_S5.0～6.9 earthquakes near epicenters. We have also studied statistical seismicity parameters of M_S5.0～6.9 earthquakes in the same region since 1950. The results have showed that earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 occurred when earthquake frequency is relatively high and earthquake time, space accumulation degrees are rising. And the prediction effect R value scores are between 0.4～0.7. We have concluded that, before earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 in the central-northern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block, M_S5.0～6.0 earthquake activity in the whole area increased and accumulated in time and space, but earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 occurred where M_S5.0～6.0 earthquake activity was relatively quiet.  相似文献   

2.
Group Strong Earthquakes and Triggering by Tidal Stress   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  
The results obtained using the group model of earthquakes generated in tectonic blocks are fur ther used in this paper to analyze the relationship between the Ms ≥ 7.0 events in Chinese ma inland and the modulation and triggering from the earth tides. The research shows that the Ms 7.0 events in Chinese mainland have been significantly triggered by the tidal stress, especially within the active period with group strong earthquakes. In the quiescence period of strong earthquakes, no Ms7.0 events were triggered, while within the active period, over 82.4% of strong earthquakes took place within a special moon phase, which is 36.4 % higher than the average. Therefore, the modulation and triggering of tidal stress can be used to distinguish the active periods and to forecast the time of the strong earthquakes within the active period. The relationship between the tidal triggering and the tectonic dynamic condition is investigated and the mechanism of the modulation is simulated with the group model of earthquakes generated in tectonic blocks.  相似文献   

3.
The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-A‘nye^maqe^n faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of Ms ≥ 7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tidemodulating strong earthquakes ( Ms ≥ 7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.  相似文献   

4.
The change laws of intensity of nearly 200 moderate-small earthquakes with Ms=2.0~5.5 occurring on the Chinese mainland since 1954 have been analyzed and are compared with that of moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0).The results show that there is quite obvious regionality in the statistical laws by both moderate-small earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes:attenuation of intensity in Eastern China is slower than that in Western China and the ratio of the major axis to the minor axis of iso-seismal lines in Eastern China is smaller than that in Western China.The results also show that for a fixed magnitude the attenuation of intensity of moderate-small earthquakes is faster when intensity is higher than V and slower when intensity is lower than V-in comparison with that of moderately strong earthquakes.Furthermore,there also have been some differences in the aspects as intensity-magnitude relation between statistical laws of moderate-small earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes.These di  相似文献   

5.
Analysis of deformation data measured across the faults, regional vertical deformation data and GPS measurements in the Sichuan-Yunnan region made since the 1980s permitted us to conclude that the crustal deformation in the region during this period of time was relatively weak and caused the occurrence of earthquakes (Ms≥6.0), which were not distributed along the major boundary active faults in the region after the 1981 I)awu Ms 6.9 earthquake and that the seismic activity is characterized by quasi-clockwise migration. Thus, it follows that earthquake prediction research should be focused on the central part of the Sichuan-Yunnan region in the coming years. Finally, a concept of temporal division of the region into active blocks is suggested and the preliminary result of the division is given in the paper.  相似文献   

6.
Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolutionchara cteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through Rvidue shows that the method is effective to a effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, we focused on earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Chinese mainland from 1900 to 2012, calculated the lunisolar tidal Coulomb failure stress on the seismic fault plane and got the tidal phase through Schuster＇s test, then quantitatively analyzed the correlation between strong earthquakes in the Chinese mainland and tidal Coulomb failure stress. Research shows that among 57 strong earthquakes with focal mechanism solutions, over 71.9% took place within the tidal loading phase, with the p-value of 3.83%, indicating that strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7. 0 in Chinese mainland have a certain correlation with lunisolar tidal Coulomb failure stress. In the active period, the p-value is 4. 56%, 75.5% of earthquakes occurred in the tidal loading phase zone, and 50% of earthquakes occurred in the quiescence period, indicating that strong earthquakes in the active period were obviously triggered with the tidal Coulomb failure stress loading.  相似文献   

9.
The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with M S≥7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-Anyêmaqên faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of M S≥7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with M S≥7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tide modulating strong earthquakes (M S≥7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.  相似文献   

10.
By applying the GL-value, a parameter describing the heterogeneities in temporal and spatial distribution of moderate and small earthquakes prior to strong earthquakes, the following problems have been studied in the present paper: a systematic investigations have been made on the features of spatial distribution and temporal variation of the high value anomalies ( GL ≥1.0) prior to 28 moderately strong earthquakes with Ms ≥5.0 in the North China region; a systematic study has been made on the reasonability of the lower limit of magnitude, the time window and the space window for calculations at various seismicity levels in this region; the parameters taken in the calculation have been optimized and modified; the anomalous variations of GL-value prior to various moderately strong earthquakes in North China region have been investigated and followed, using the total time-space scanning method. The results of the study have shown that for 82 % of the moderately strong earthquakes in the North China region, obvious anomalous region with high GL-values appears near the future epicenter about 1 ～ 3.5 years before the earthquakes. The earthquakes usually occur in the marginal area of the anomalous zone or near it. Temporal variations of the GL-values in the anomalous zone show that the duration of anomalous ranges between 3 ～ 25 months with a predominant interval of 5 ～ 19 months, into which about 70% the total anomalies fall. The predominant interval of earthquake occurrences is 0 ～ 14 months after ending of the anomaly, into which about 83 % of the total anomalies fall. Based on these results the GL-value method is considered to be a rather effective prediction method for moderately strong earthquakes in the North China region.  相似文献   

11.
The Yajiang earthquake sequence in 2001, with the major events of Ms5.1 on Feb. 14 and of Ms6.0 on Feb.23, are significant events in the Sichuan region during the last 13 years. Eighty-eight earthquakes in the sequence with at least 5 distinct onset parameters for each recorded by the Sichuan Seismic Network in the period of Jan. 1 through June 30,2001 were chosen for this study. The events are relocated and the focal mechanism is derived from P-wave onsets for 13 events with relatively larger magnitudes. The focal depth of all earthquakes fall between a range of 2km to 16km, with dominant distribution between 9km to 11km. Theforeshocks, the Ms5.1 earthquake and the Ms6.0 earthquake and their aftershocks are all located close to the Zihe fault and the dominant epicentral distribution is in NW direction, identical to that of the fault. The fracture surface of the focal mechanism is determined in accordance to the mass transfer orientation in the recent earth deformation field in the Yajiang region. The P axes of the principal compressive stress in focal mechanism solutions of the 13 events show bigger vertical components, and the horizontal projection trending SE. The earthquakes are of left-lateral, strike-slip normal, and normal strike-slip types. The rupture surface of most earthquakes strike NW-SE, dipping SW. Based on the above information, we conclude that the Zihe fault that crosses the earthquake area, striking NW and dipping SW, is the seismogenic fault for the Yajiang earthquake sequence.  相似文献   

12.
We applied the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm to 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 that occurred in the northern Tianshan region, Xinjiang, from April 1988 to June 2003, using a total of 28701 P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by 32 seismic stations in Xinjiang. Aiming to obtain most of these M_S≥2.0 earthquakes relocations, and considering the requirements of the DD method and the condition of data, we added the travel time data of another 437 earthquakes with 1.5≤M_S<2.0. Finally, we obtained the relocation results for 1253 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0, which account for 93% of all the 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 and includes all the M_S≥3.0 earthquakes. The reason for not relocating the 95 earthquakes with 2.0≤M_S<3.0 is analyzed in the paper. After relocation, the RMS residual decreased from 0.83s to 0.14s, the average error is 0.993 km in E-W direction, 1.10 km in N-S direction, and 1.33 km in vertical direction. The hypocenter depths are more convergent than before and distributed from 5 km to 35 km, with 94% being from 5km to 35 km, 68.2% from 10 km to 25 km. The average hypocenter depth is 19 km.  相似文献   

13.
We applied the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm to 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 that occurred in the northern Tianshan region, Xinjiang, from April 1988 to June 2003, using a total of 28701 P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by 32 seismic stations in Xinjiang. Aiming to obtain most of these M_S≥2.0 earthquakes relocations, and considering the requirements of the DD method and the condition of data, we added the travel time data of another 437 earthquakes with 1.5≤M_S<2.0. Finally, we obtained the relocation results for 1253 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0, which account for 93% of all the 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 and includes all the M_S≥3.0 earthquakes. The reason for not relocating the 95 earthquakes with 2.0≤M_S<3.0 is analyzed in the paper. After relocation, the RMS residual decreased from 0.83s to 0.14s, the average error is 0.993 km in E-W direction, 1.10 km in N-S direction, and 1.33 km in vertical direction. The hypocenter depths are more convergent than before and distributed from 5 km to 35 km, with 94% being from 5km to 35 km, 68.2% from 10 km to 25 km. The average hypocenter depth is 19 km.  相似文献   

14.
The tectonic characteristics and research problems of five earthquakes with M≥7.0 on the North China Plain over the last 300 years are addressed in the paper, including the cognition that there were no ground fractures in the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, the question caused by the thrust activity of the seismic fault of the Tangshan Earthquake and the discussion of the seismotectonic environment of the 1830 Cixian earthquake and the 1937 Heze earthquake. The author thinks that the main reason for the problems in research of strong earthquake tectonics in the region is that the status of activity of the main tectonics during the Late Quaternary are unknown. This affects the founding of discrimination criteria for seismotectonics of strong earthquakes on the North China Plain. Discriminating the Holocene active faults from the large number of faults is the most effective method for seismic hazard assessment in the area in future.  相似文献   

15.
Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasiperiodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and longterm seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.  相似文献   

16.
Xue Yan 《中国地震研究》2006,20(2):118-126
The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the Mw9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows ： ① The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been evidently strengthened since 1994, showing an increased frequency, magnitude and depth, especially in regards to the heterogeneous distribution of the earthquake depth （namely between 500km and 689km）. Meanwhile the shallow earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 in the Sumatra island and its vicinity had been obviously strengthened too, and formed a strengthening area with a length of about 1000 km and width 300 km. ②The time distribution of global strong earthquakes with M≥ 7.0 shows that the character of anomalous seismic quiescence-activity one year before the Mw9.0 earthquake and during its active period, the strong earthquakes formed a seismic belt striking in NWW direction. At the same time, there is a seismic gap formed by earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 in the epicenter and its neighboring region. ③ Two deep earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 occurred in the west and in the east of the north boundary zone of the Australian plate half year ago. It is notable that one of them occurred in the Sumatra island where no deep earthquake with M ③ 6.0 has occurred in the past thirty years. ④The space distribution of moderate shocks occurring three days ago exhibited a NWW-strike seismic belt along the north boundary zone of the Australian plate. ⑤The activity of volcanoes distributed in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been strengthened in the past 4 years, especially several months before the occurrence of the Mw9.0 earthquake.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper,the process of dynamic variation of the wave velocity ratio that occurred at a single station,such as Lancang,Tengchong,and Eryuan stations,8 years before the Lancang-Gengma earthquakes(Ms=7.6 and 7.2),is studied by applying the synthetic method as a whole.It is found that the moderately strong and strong earthquakes 250 km away that occurred since 1983 may lead to mutation anomalies of the wave velocity ratio in the Lancang region.The mutation amplitude is increased with the approaching time and distance of a large event.The reliability of mutation data for the wave velocity ratio has been demonstrated in many ways.The application of mutation of the wave velocity ratio to earthquake prediction and its physical explanation are discussed.  相似文献   

18.
The Geomagnetic Effects of Moderately Strong Earthquakes in Jiangsu Area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The total intensity of geomagnetic field(F)and its vertical component(Z)have been observed and tested for 14 years since 1979 in Jiangsu area.During the period 3 values,including the vertical component Z on 21h,the amplitude of diurnal variations of Z and the complex geomagnetic effects of "lowest-point displacement,have been obtained from 6 earthquakes with Ms≥4.6.These observations show that the geomagnetic complex anomalous variations do not appear when no moderately strong earthquakes occurs in this area.In this paper,the authors consider that it is possible to improve the results and actions of geomagnetic method for earthquake prediction with more intensive continuous recordings and geomagnetic multiparameter network by observing the vertical value Z,a main parameter to obtain geomagnetic anomaly in the middle-low latitude region.  相似文献   

19.
The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories, obse  相似文献   

20.
The Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of Ms6.8 occurred on February 24, 2003, about 20km from the southeast of the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi seismic region in Xinjiang, and its aftershocks are rich and strong. Did the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm trigger the Bachu-Jiashi Ms6.8 earthquake？ The Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 occurred in 1996, and the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm occurred about 70km from the Atushi earthquake 10 months later. Did the Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 encourage the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm？ There were 9 earthquakes with Ms6.0 from 1996 to 1997 in the Jiashi seismic region, how did they act on each other？ To answer the above questions, the article studies the triggering effect of the activity process of the whole Jiashi earthquake swarm from the 1996 Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7, the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong swarm to the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of Ms6.8, and analyzes the seismicity characteristics around the Jiashi region. The results show that the 1996 Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 encouraged the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong swarm to some extent, the accumulative Coulomb stress change from the previous M6.0 earthquakes of the Jiashi strong swarm had certain triggering effects on the following M6.0 events, and the Coulomb stress change converted from the Jiashi strong swarm strongly encouraged the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake with Ms6.8.  相似文献   

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